Good morning everyone.
During the evening we had some good number out of Asian markets that popped the Dow futures up about 60 points but as we get closer to the open the futures are sliding back toward a flat open.
Today we have several economic numbers before the open with the biggest being the ISM number that won’t be released until 10 AM eastern. Although we have a lot of earnings today it’s unlikely we will see much movement from the reports. The FOMC meeting begins today and as we all know the market tends to trade lightly in a tight range as it waits for the announcement. The Employment Situation number on Friday is another report that normally keeps the market subdued until it’s release.
Last but not least is the election just 7 days away making the market very apprehensive particularly due to the Clinton email scandal bubbling to the surface once again.
Once again I will most likely sit on hands while all this uncertainty unfolds. I understand how hard it is to simply continue to wait but when we have no edge it’s the best thing we can do to protect our capital.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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Good morning everyone
Friday the market was dealt a surprise when the head of the FBI reopened the Clinton E-mail scandal case due to new evidence. Who knows what will come of it but the market hates this kind of uncertainty and may further complicate this very challenging market. With the election now only 8 days way and the market locked into a very tight range truly anything is possible. As a result, I highly doubt I will be doing much trading until the election is over and the market picks a direction.
I understand this has been very frustrating but why risk our money when chop rules the market. I believe big moves are coming soon so will spend my time preparing rather than fighting news driven emotionally charged chop where I have no edge. There are times when the best position is a cash position and personally I think that time is now. If you disagree that’s okay with me and I wish you success.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone
Well, my hopes for a big tech pop fell flat on its face just a few seconds after the market closed yesterday and AMZN reported a earnings miss. GOOG quickly followed with a report that beat but failed to inspire a move to offset AMZN. Consequently, we remain stuck in the very narrow range that has plagued the market for 2 months now.
The Dow futures were basically flat at about 5 AM and although we are getting a little fluff up push in the Pre-Market action I think we can expect more chop today.
The GDP number this morning has the potential of moving the market this morning but unless it is a big surprise I wouldn’t want to hold my breath that it will do much of anything. There are more than 100 earnings being reported today but again I think it to be unlikely they will generate adequate energy to break the support or resistance log jams.
If you can, today would a very good day to turn off the computer and go do something productive or fun rather than wasting a Friday watching chop. It will get better I’m confident of that but likely not until we get past the election.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone
Today is a huge day for earnings with 450 companies reporting. After the close, we get a double whammy with 2 of the huge tech giants reporting. AMZN and GOOG can have the power to move the market in either direction. Options are suggesting that both companies have the potential of huge moves today. If they both happen to be positive moves we could finally see resistance tested, on the other hand, if they were to both disappoint support cold be broken. Al we can really do is watch, wait and hope for the best.
Next week is yet another big week of earnings reports so the drama of earnings is far from over. Speaking of drama, with only 13 days left to the election we can expect the candidates to do and say almost anything to get a vote. That, of course, can and will likely continue to be the driving force keeping the market range bound and choppy. Personally, I see this election as a national embarrassment. No matter who wins we all lose. How the market will react is anyone’s guess but It will react with some sort of knee jerk reaction. Keep that in mind as you plan your portfolio holdings over the next couple weeks.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone
I’m sorry that there was no Morning Video yesterday and that I had to cancel the RWO room. Trust me I did everything I could to get back online as soon as possible but when the city decides to dig right through a major internet trunk line there is only so much that can be done.
Sadly yesterday did nothing but continue to confirm that the current downtrend is still valid. This morning we are seeing that bearishness gap the market lower for yet another test of support. Let’s hope it holds because it doesn’t we could see some very rapid selling as stop loss orders begin to trip.
Thus far earnings have done nothing to break us out of this downtrend, however, with more than 200 companies reporting today and 450 tomorrow anything is possible. Please make sure you are checking when a company reports before jumping into anything.
We have some big new items this morning that could move the market but I think the one to keep any eye on is the report on oil. A surprise build in surplus would likely send oil lower and pull the overall market down as well.
I know I sound like a broken record but please use caution when trading. A very big price move is possible at any time and you don’t want to be caught on the wrong side of it.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone
It’s a beautiful Monday morning the futures are suggesting a 70 plus point gap up the open. The huge merger deal between At&T and Time Warner is the reason for the excitement this morning but hey I welcome anything that might break us out of this chop.
This week we really blast into earnings with nearly 500 reporting on Thursday alone. Let’s hope they are better then what we have seen so far this quarter which has been lackluster at best.
There are 4 Fed speakers flapping their lips today which could mean some market nervousness if they lean hawkish. Another concern is that oil futures are currently down slightly and may dampen the bullish morning pop.
Although I am encouraged in the positive open we much keep in mind that the current downtrend must be defeated as well as the upper resistance level before gaining confidence in a direction. There is still a lot of work to be done.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone
Happy Friday everyone! This morning the market has a bit bearishness as the majority of the earnings seem to be failing to impress investors. Both Asian and Euro markets were mixed overnight with a slightly bearish lean.
Overall our major indexes remain in a very tight range with sideways chop maintaining control. If you are struggling in this market you are not alone. Data showed that last quarter the hedge fund industry performed less than the S&P average due to this challenging environment. 28 billion flowed out of hedge funds last quarter which registering as the biggest number since the 2009 selloff. Significant outflows continued in the mutual funds as well last quarter. Obviously, this isn’t a big confidence builder in the overall market however we need to see better price action before making any major moves.
There are a couple Fed speakers today but no major economic reports. Keep in mind there will be a major jump in earnings reports next week. Perhaps we may get some better clues next week but for now, I want to remain very cautious and small as we head into the weekend.
Have an awesome weekend everyone.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone
Yesterday it was nice to see a little bullishness in the market but overall we continue to remain trapped in a very small range. Earnings this far have really not inspired the bulls or the bears into taking a lead.
A very big move in either direction remains a possibility so if you do decide to trade make sure you have some balance in your portfolio with long and short positions.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone
Do my eyes deceive me? A market open without a major gap. A rare occurrence of late to be sure! As nice as that is to see the fact is the market continues to be down-trending and locked into a very small chop zone.
I plan to remain cautious largely sitting on my hands patiently waiting a market direction to appear. I certainly understand how frustrating this can be however it’s far better than bleeding capital daily in this chop.
The earnings reports are picking up so I highly suggest making sure you know when companies you hold are reporting as well as checking those you are thinking of entering. Failing to do so can inflict pain you really don’t want to experience.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good morning everyone
The market is very happy this morning with the big earnings beat from NFLX. The market was expecting less than a $10 move but the stock is gaping nearly $20 higher this morning. At 8:30 we have a potentially market moving CPI reading. There are a couple other reports that can move the market but it’s unlikely that they will.
Just because the market is gapping up does not mean we should get all excited and chase this gap. Even with the opening pop, it should be noted that nothing has really changed as of now. The market is still in a downtrend and we continue to be stuck in a very narrow range. How many times have we seen in the last month a gap up that has been sold into over the next couple days? Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.
There is absolutely no need to rush. Keep your emotions in check by planning your trades carefully and waiting for the trade entry to come to you.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
