Good Morning RWO!
Half way through December and the question on everyone’s mind, Did the Fed kill the Santa Claus rally? Personally, I don’t think so. If you think about just how much the markets have moved in the last 6 weeks it’s actually amazing that yesterday we didn’t pull back a lot more. Dow futures remained positive all night long and although lower than the overnight highs they still continue to remain positive at the moment.
There are several big items on the economic calendar this morning. As long as they don’t disappoint in a big way we could have a positive open contrary to what yesterday’s closing candle would suggest.
I don’t expect the bulls to give up on 20K very easily. Even if we get more selling today I think the bulls will at least attempt another shot at that big round number before year’s end. Believe me, I know the market needs a pullback but the super bull may still have a few more things to say.
Have a great day!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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Good Morning Profit Traders!
Short and sweet this morning. It’s all about the data and the Fed today. Manage the positions that you’re in pop some popcorn, roast some chestnuts on an open fire and put up your feet and watch the show.
I would not be at all surprised to see the Dow make a run for 20k at some point during the day today but expect a lot of volatility particularly after the FOMC announcement it. When the dust settles and the gamblers have left to lick their wounds we can get back mixing it up. Until then it’s best just stand aside.
Have a great day!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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Good Morning Traders!
Yesterday was as expected with a little light volume chop. I was expecting the same for today but when I looked at the futures this morning the bulls clearly have different plans. I could not believe my eye when I saw the Dow futures up 75 points. I jumped on the CNBC app looking for a headline that could it explain it but all I could find was a decision from the president-elect on a couple appointments. I guess the market really likes his picks. I have seen the market move based on a new president but I can’t remember a time when the market has moved like this every time an appointment is made. Incredible!
We have Import/Export number this morning and a couple bond auctions but I doubt very much they will move the market this morning when released. Keep in mind we have a huge data day tomorrow which adds another layer of amazement to the sharply bullish push this morning.
I now believe there is nothing that will stop the bulls in reaching out for a Dow 20k print and the way the market has been moving we could see it happen before the end of the week. It would seem the market has extremely high expectations for our new leadership. Here’s to hoping he can live up to this vote of confidence!
Have an awesome day!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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Good Morning Friends!
I hope everyone had a restful weekend and are feeling ready to go for another busy market week. Last week was incredible with the bulls really putting on a show of strength. Even the Q’s which had been lagging behind managed to not only hold above the 50 SMA but also a breakout of a major resistance level.
Now the question is will the bulls be able to hold these new levels or will the bears show they still have teeth. The economic calendar has several bond auctions and the Treasury Budget at 2 PM EDT but I would not expect them to have enough power to move the market. If fact my guess is we will likely get very quiet and choppy until Wednesday when we get a huge data dump as well as the FOMC Announcement.
Clearly, the bulls have the advantage this morning with really no clues in price action suggesting selling at least at this point. However, at anytime it should not be a surprise if a pullback were to begin so stay on your toes this week could be pretty wild.
Have a profitable day!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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Good Morning Right Way Options and Happy Friday!
Everyone watching the market could have easily assumed that the day after a 300 point move in the Dow that some profit taking and selling would have occurred. After all that what happens normally, right? The thing is I don’t think we are in a normal bull run. I began saying after the election that we had seen a fundamental shift in the market to what I call a Super Bull. I have only seen one in my trading career and it occurred during the Dot.Com craze in the late 1990’s. Yes, I am that old! Should this market pullback? Yes! the question is will it and how long will we have to wait for it? As for me, I will continue to trade long until the market says otherwise because I really don’t want to miss out on the easy profits of run this strong. The price action will tell us when it’s over and as of right now it says no such thing.
Now having said that we must always be aware a rollover is possible and have a plan to protect our capital when it occurs. Always have an exit plan before entering a position!
Today we have Consumer Sentiment numbers which should be pretty positive given the strength of the market. Keep in mind that next week we have a huge amount of data coming out on Wednesday. If the market gets a little soft and choppy ahead of that big data dump don’t be to surprised. Friday’s have been pretty positive days of late and there is no reason to believe at this moment that it will be any different today.
Have a great day and I wish you all fantastic weekend!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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Good Morning Right Way Options!
Yesterday turned out to one for the record books as the markets. Already over-extended the bulls put on a show force that was truly remarkable. Markets around the world reacted higher on the back of the US bullishness and yet this morning futures are pointing to a higher open. Incredible!
The only thing on the economic calendar of consequence is the weekly jobless claims. I think there would have to be a huge surprise in the number to move the market this morning.
I will on the lookout for a pullback today but we could easily just consolidate. I took some profits yesterday and expect to be taking more of the gains first thing this morning. Taking profits is a very personal thing and if you decide to hold just make sure greed doesn’t get the better of you.
Have a wonderful day!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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Good Morning Traders!
Although the day started off with a little selling yesterday finished strong with the SPY and the IWM closing at new record highs. The bull continues to be strong but is does show signs of slowing it march higher so it’s wise to not chase stocks that appear over-extended.
Today in economic news we have the JOLTS report and the petroleum status numbers. I would keep a close eye on the oil number today, if we see a build i supply oil could move quickly lower taking the market lower with it however if we see supply diminishing then it could provide us with the fuel to power the charts higher.
Remember we have have a massive economic new day coming next Wednesday. As we move closer to that big day don’t be surprised to see the market lose direction and become a bit choppy. There will likely continue to be some good trading with stocks that were a little slow to rally do some catching up during this period.
Wishing you a profitable trading day!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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Good Morning Friends!
Yesterday was sure a nice surprise with the market pushing higher as the QQQ, IWM and SPY recovered slightly from last week’s slight bearishness.
Today the futures are basically flat across the board. We have International Trade, productivity, and costs as well as factory orders in the economic new this morning however unless we see have a big surprise number I doubt they will have much of an effect. We have now entered the quiet period ahead of the FOMC next week. That means no more Fed speak until Yellen’s press conference next Tuesday.
I think there is a good chance we will see the indexes get quiet and choppy until next Tuesday as well, however, that does not mean there will not be some nice trading in individual stocks as long as we remain positive and avoid dipping ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Have a great day my friends.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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Good Morning Friends and Happy Monday!
Well, I have to say you could have knocked me over with the feather this morning when I rolled out of the bed and saw that the Dow futures were up 90 points. After the Italian election and Trumps comments that offended China the market looked as if it was going to finally give up the presidential rally. Clearly, that is not the case. We are now seeing some of the Perma-Bulls calling Dow 20K as the new target. Now I know the Dow likes those big round numbers but that’s still more than 800 points away and I have a tough time thinking we will go straight there without a pullback.
There’s not much in the way of market moving economic news this morning however we have 3 Fed members feeling the need to pontificate so keep that in mind as the morning progress.
Have a fantastic day.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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Good Morning Friends and Happy Friday!
This has been an interesting week in the market with several contradictions. First, we have had Dow continuing to surge higher while the QQQ decided to embrace a bearish stance. The SPY and the IWM have been displaying weakness at the highs but the selling has been tentative. Oil which had started to show signs of bearishness suddenly flipped bullish on the news that OPEC will finally cut production. Economic numbers have been very positive however that has made the market nervous that the Fed will have to increase interest rates while at the same time fueling many financial companies to reach out for all time highs. What a complex mess we have made of the simple act of company valuation!
This morning we get the Employment Situation number at 8:30 eastern time. The market which would normally want to see job increases is now worried that the number may come in strong forcing the hand of the Fed to act. If the number comes in weaker than expected we may actually see the market respond higher, but if it comes in above 200k as the ADP suggests, the market will likely respond negatively.
One thing to be sure of is that the market will keep us on your toes trying to decipher its OCD issues. I suggest managing the positions your in and avoiding new risk for at least 30 minutes of trading today to allow time for the reaction to the news to subside.
I want to wish you all a fantastic weekend and remind everyone to keep our good friend Olivia in your thoughts and prayers as she deals with her severe health challenges.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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