Good Morning RWO!
The market made such a nice move up yesterday on the back of the new president’s decisions and it’s setup to power higher again this morning with futures pointing to a nice gap up. Dow 20K seems to be back in the cards and even higher. Yesterday the QQQ made and all-time closing high and it is also showing more gains this morning.
Mortgage apps showed a surprise increase of 4% last month even the midst of rising rates. Personally, I see that as very positive because the consumer is showing a level of confidence in the future that we haven’t seen for some time. Let’s hope it’s not a flash in the pan and that we are seeing the beginning of a positive emergence of actual growth. We will get a reading on the Oil status this morning. A story out yesterday said OPEC’s efforts have started working to stabilize the sector. Let’s hope we begin to that in the actual number of supply today.
For a couple weeks, I have been talking caution but I now think it’s time to lift some of that caution and perhaps be slightly more aggressive. We still have the upper resistance to breakout and hold as support so we are not totally out of the woods just yet but I think the price action is suggesting a new wave of upside momentum could have begun yesterday.
I wish you all a productive and profitable day!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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Good Morning traders!
There is no doubt that this has been a very boring market with very little we can do until the market finds some direction rather than this sideways chop. Perhaps is will now get going with earnings starting to ramp up and the big techs beginning to report. We are going to need the techs to report well and allow the QQQ to lead the DIA and SPY out of this tight range.
We have PMI and housing sales this morning beginning at 9:45 eastern. Although these reports do have the ability to move us around if there is a surprise but I wouldn’t hold my breath expecting that today. Yesterday Trump told business leaders he will be able to cut regulation by 75% which most business would see as a very positive move in the right direction but they are reserving judgment until they see the details. if some of those details do begin to come to light it could really begin to move the market but hold on it could be a bumpy ride and ah big dose of volatility will likely come along for the ride.
I plan to move slowly this morning only managing the current positions I’m in but waiting to pass judgment on new positions until I see some overall all market price action improvement.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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Good Morning traders and Happy Monday!
This morning I get the feeling we are diving into a bit of an unknown with a new President at the helm and his promise of lots of changes in the first week. Currently, futures are slightly bearish but I think anythings is possible. Futures were slightly more bearish overnight and we could easily move lower right at open to testing the overnight lows so be very careful this morning.
There are a few earnings this morning that could move the market but there’s nothing but bond auctions on economic calendar so we can’t look there for inspiration.
I think we need remain a little cautious until we see clues to a direction forming. I will also expect volume to improve and would not be at all surprised to see some additional volatility. I plan to take ti very slow this morning.
Note, that Saturdays E-Learning video was posted to the website on Sunday if you didn’t have a chance to attend. We talked about shorting and hedging with rules of the trade.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good Morning traders and Happy Friday!
Today is inauguration day for the 45th U.S. President and the entire world will be focused there rather than the stock market. There will be a lot of warm and fuzzy speeches as well as a lot of talk of gloom and doom. Futures are basically flat this morning and I would expect today to be about like a major holiday, slow and choppy.
There are a couple Fed speakers today but I doubt anyone will be listening to them. Even the earnings calendar is light this morning with only 13 company’s reporting.
Please, please, please, don’t be in a rush to find new trades today. Sit on your hands and manage the positions that you are in. If you have something to do that you have been putting off, today might be the day to get it done. Other than that pop some corn, put up your feet and watch the show.
Rick will not be in today so we will do the best we can to cover the main room today. Please keep him and his family in your thoughts and prayers during this difficult time. If you want to send cards to Rick he as given this address for that purpose; Rick Saddler, 3160 E. Shalimar, Springfield MO., 65804.
May the road rise up to meet you and wind always be at your back. Have a great weekend everyone!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good Morning traders, I hope this note finds you happy, healthy and rested.
We continue to remain in a very dull choppy market. I’m not sure what the market is waiting for but without question, it’s stuck between a narrow support and resistance zone making it difficult to trade. Finding tradeable stocks is not the problem but finding stocks with enough momentum to make any money on them is the issue.
We have several items on the economic calendar this morning that could still move the futures around in the premarket but as of now we are pointed to a slightly bearish open. The oil status report at 11 eastern could prove to be very important today. As you all know oil has been slipping lower so a report showing a decline in supply could really be helpful to the overall market lifting oil prices. Of course, if it were to show a build then the selling that could happen in oil could push the market lower.
I plan to remain cautious and will not be looking to add additional risk in a 50/50 dull action overall market.
Have a great day!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good Morning everyone and Hump Day!.
Yesterday the market seem to be in limbo with light volumes and very small price moves. Perhaps the market is waiting to see more earnings results before making a decision of direction or maybe the market is simply waiting for the new president to get started. Whatever the reason may be w continue to be locked into a small range of sideways chop and forcing us to have a heightened level of confidence.
Today we have several big earnings such as C and GS prior to market open and NFLX after the close today. Big pre-market earnings reports have the potential of moving the futures around so the open today I think is still up in the air and anything is possible. We also have a very busy economic calendar today with CPI, Industrial Production and Janet Yellen speaking this afternoon as the most likely of to move the market.
I believe we must continue with our heightened caution. This means we need to choose carefully the stocks we trade, perhaps trade them smaller and have a willingness to take profits sooner if the market does suddenly pick a direction.
I wish you all a productive day!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good Morning RWO.
I hope everyone had a fantastic weekend. I’m not 100% just yet but doing much better so everything should be back to normal if there is such a thing.
The Futures are pointing to a lower open this morning an because the gap down is a slightly larger than we have been seeing lately it’s common to have an emotional reaction and thinking the sky is ready to fall. However, if you look at the index charts you will see that there is a reason to raise your caution level but at least now there is no need to panic.
MS reported great earnings this morning and that help to lift the futures off the lows. Don’t forget the power of earnings session and the influence it has over the trader emotion. On the economic calendar, we have the empire state number this morning but I doubt it will have much effect unless the number is a major surprise. We have several Fed speakers today and it looks as if they will keep the hot air circulating the rest of the week.
For today raise your caution level just a little and watch the charts.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good Morning and Happy Friday!
Yesterday turned out to be a nasty whipsaw and justifying my words of caution. Today it’s all going to be about the big economic reports and earnings. Both PPI and Retail Sales will be out prior to the market open and we will likely have seen reactions to bank earnings before the open as well. Anything is possible. If everything were to come out bullish then today could be the push through 20K with the increased volatility. If the market is disappointed in data it’s that same volatility that could quickly break through supports.
All we can do is wait, stick to our rules and avoid emotional decisions. I think today it would be wise to give the market 15 to 30 minutes to calm down before making any decisions on new risk.
RWO will be open today as long as my voice will hold out. I look forward to getting back to my normal schedule..
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good Morning friends!
I will spare details but need to let everyone know that I will not be able to do a video today or open RWO. The good news is after a really rough night I think I’ve finally started to turn the corner. I simply need to rest toady and I believe I will be back on my feet Friday.
The market witnessed a good deal of volatility yesterday afternoon in reaction to the Trump press conference but managed to close the day with bulls in control. the bullish did not transfer around the world with Asian and Euro markets all selling off. As a consequence, the futures are suggesting a lower open. A little selling in the morning doesn’t bother me because we are still in consolidation zone but coupling that to the intra-day volatility change and caution lights begin to light up in my head. It may be time reduce holdings a become extra watchful for clues that the bears may be gaining an edge.
BMY really let us down yesterday and I think it would be best to close the position altogether. We will still maintain a small profit on the overall trade due to the profits on the short strike but depending on your commission it may be a wash.
MSFT is looking good so as of now I would continue to hold this position.
Today there will be a flurry of news with Fed speakers and congressional hearings on some of the Trump appointees. Congress has the potential for soap-opera style drama during such events which can, of course, create emotional market responses. Also keep in mind that several of the big banks will begin reporting Friday morning. Obviously, banks have enjoyed sharp rallies after the Trump election. Most are suggesting we will see substantial growth in bank earnings last quarter but the question on everyone’s mind is will there enough improvement to justify the current prices.
Anything is possible so it’s very important to simply follow the charts, avoiding prediction and personal biases. I know there are many thinking the market is way overbought and that may be true but all we will need is good earnings reports to push the markets even higher. All that said, be a little cautious today, protect your positions, take profits and trade based on the price action of the chart.
Again, there is no video attached today and the RWO trading will be closed again today. Very sorry for the inconvenience. I promise I make it up to you!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Top of the morning friends. It’s hard to believe it’s already humpday. Yesterday the bullish push produced some very nice gains for me but it’s a shame they were not able to hold on to the daily highs. At the end of the day the bears were gaining control but until support is breached I’m not going to worry about it. And though I’m not going to worry about I’m going to plan to take profits on trades faster than normal. A stock that gaps up or down in my trade direction will be considered a gift and I will quickly ring the register. Keep that in mind as we continue to chop in this range.
We have an oil status report this morning at 10:30 eastern and a Fed speaker in the early afternoon. Oil futures are currently pointing higher but keep in mind a surprise build in supply will not only affect oil but also the market as a whole. A surprise decline in supply, on the other hand, could prove to be bullish overall.
RWO room will be open today but I will have to take it slow. Between the fits of coughing and a weak voice it may have several starts and stops but I will muddle through the best I can.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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