Good Morning traders and Happy Friday!
Today is inauguration day for the 45th U.S. President and the entire world will be focused there rather than the stock market. There will be a lot of warm and fuzzy speeches as well as a lot of talk of gloom and doom. Futures are basically flat this morning and I would expect today to be about like a major holiday, slow and choppy.
There are a couple Fed speakers today but I doubt anyone will be listening to them. Even the earnings calendar is light this morning with only 13 company’s reporting.
Please, please, please, don’t be in a rush to find new trades today. Sit on your hands and manage the positions that you are in. If you have something to do that you have been putting off, today might be the day to get it done. Other than that pop some corn, put up your feet and watch the show.
Rick will not be in today so we will do the best we can to cover the main room today. Please keep him and his family in your thoughts and prayers during this difficult time. If you want to send cards to Rick he as given this address for that purpose; Rick Saddler, 3160 E. Shalimar, Springfield MO., 65804.
May the road rise up to meet you and wind always be at your back. Have a great weekend everyone!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good Morning traders, I hope this note finds you happy, healthy and rested.
We continue to remain in a very dull choppy market. I’m not sure what the market is waiting for but without question, it’s stuck between a narrow support and resistance zone making it difficult to trade. Finding tradeable stocks is not the problem but finding stocks with enough momentum to make any money on them is the issue.
We have several items on the economic calendar this morning that could still move the futures around in the premarket but as of now we are pointed to a slightly bearish open. The oil status report at 11 eastern could prove to be very important today. As you all know oil has been slipping lower so a report showing a decline in supply could really be helpful to the overall market lifting oil prices. Of course, if it were to show a build then the selling that could happen in oil could push the market lower.
I plan to remain cautious and will not be looking to add additional risk in a 50/50 dull action overall market.
Have a great day!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good Morning everyone and Hump Day!.
Yesterday the market seem to be in limbo with light volumes and very small price moves. Perhaps the market is waiting to see more earnings results before making a decision of direction or maybe the market is simply waiting for the new president to get started. Whatever the reason may be w continue to be locked into a small range of sideways chop and forcing us to have a heightened level of confidence.
Today we have several big earnings such as C and GS prior to market open and NFLX after the close today. Big pre-market earnings reports have the potential of moving the futures around so the open today I think is still up in the air and anything is possible. We also have a very busy economic calendar today with CPI, Industrial Production and Janet Yellen speaking this afternoon as the most likely of to move the market.
I believe we must continue with our heightened caution. This means we need to choose carefully the stocks we trade, perhaps trade them smaller and have a willingness to take profits sooner if the market does suddenly pick a direction.
I wish you all a productive day!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good Morning RWO.
I hope everyone had a fantastic weekend. I’m not 100% just yet but doing much better so everything should be back to normal if there is such a thing.
The Futures are pointing to a lower open this morning an because the gap down is a slightly larger than we have been seeing lately it’s common to have an emotional reaction and thinking the sky is ready to fall. However, if you look at the index charts you will see that there is a reason to raise your caution level but at least now there is no need to panic.
MS reported great earnings this morning and that help to lift the futures off the lows. Don’t forget the power of earnings session and the influence it has over the trader emotion. On the economic calendar, we have the empire state number this morning but I doubt it will have much effect unless the number is a major surprise. We have several Fed speakers today and it looks as if they will keep the hot air circulating the rest of the week.
For today raise your caution level just a little and watch the charts.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good Morning and Happy Friday!
Yesterday turned out to be a nasty whipsaw and justifying my words of caution. Today it’s all going to be about the big economic reports and earnings. Both PPI and Retail Sales will be out prior to the market open and we will likely have seen reactions to bank earnings before the open as well. Anything is possible. If everything were to come out bullish then today could be the push through 20K with the increased volatility. If the market is disappointed in data it’s that same volatility that could quickly break through supports.
All we can do is wait, stick to our rules and avoid emotional decisions. I think today it would be wise to give the market 15 to 30 minutes to calm down before making any decisions on new risk.
RWO will be open today as long as my voice will hold out. I look forward to getting back to my normal schedule..
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
Good Morning friends!
I will spare details but need to let everyone know that I will not be able to do a video today or open RWO. The good news is after a really rough night I think I’ve finally started to turn the corner. I simply need to rest toady and I believe I will be back on my feet Friday.
The market witnessed a good deal of volatility yesterday afternoon in reaction to the Trump press conference but managed to close the day with bulls in control. the bullish did not transfer around the world with Asian and Euro markets all selling off. As a consequence, the futures are suggesting a lower open. A little selling in the morning doesn’t bother me because we are still in consolidation zone but coupling that to the intra-day volatility change and caution lights begin to light up in my head. It may be time reduce holdings a become extra watchful for clues that the bears may be gaining an edge.
BMY really let us down yesterday and I think it would be best to close the position altogether. We will still maintain a small profit on the overall trade due to the profits on the short strike but depending on your commission it may be a wash.
MSFT is looking good so as of now I would continue to hold this position.
Today there will be a flurry of news with Fed speakers and congressional hearings on some of the Trump appointees. Congress has the potential for soap-opera style drama during such events which can, of course, create emotional market responses. Also keep in mind that several of the big banks will begin reporting Friday morning. Obviously, banks have enjoyed sharp rallies after the Trump election. Most are suggesting we will see substantial growth in bank earnings last quarter but the question on everyone’s mind is will there enough improvement to justify the current prices.
Anything is possible so it’s very important to simply follow the charts, avoiding prediction and personal biases. I know there are many thinking the market is way overbought and that may be true but all we will need is good earnings reports to push the markets even higher. All that said, be a little cautious today, protect your positions, take profits and trade based on the price action of the chart.
Again, there is no video attached today and the RWO trading will be closed again today. Very sorry for the inconvenience. I promise I make it up to you!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Top of the morning friends. It’s hard to believe it’s already humpday. Yesterday the bullish push produced some very nice gains for me but it’s a shame they were not able to hold on to the daily highs. At the end of the day the bears were gaining control but until support is breached I’m not going to worry about it. And though I’m not going to worry about I’m going to plan to take profits on trades faster than normal. A stock that gaps up or down in my trade direction will be considered a gift and I will quickly ring the register. Keep that in mind as we continue to chop in this range.
We have an oil status report this morning at 10:30 eastern and a Fed speaker in the early afternoon. Oil futures are currently pointing higher but keep in mind a surprise build in supply will not only affect oil but also the market as a whole. A surprise decline in supply, on the other hand, could prove to be bullish overall.
RWO room will be open today but I will have to take it slow. Between the fits of coughing and a weak voice it may have several starts and stops but I will muddle through the best I can.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Click Here to View the Morning Video
Good Morning and sorry I was not able to get anything out prior to the open. Although I was in the hospital overnight I am feeling much better and should be back on my feet tomorrow.
I am severally handicapped this morning using an iPad to look at charts for there are a few things that I wanted to share. First, I sold my FCX position on the gap up this morning, I also sold my SQ position collecting nice profits on both. If you have not sold the short calls in MSFT I suggest doing so today. If you have not sold the BMY short calls that’s okay but just know that I have suggested that they should be sold. We will be waiting for both stocks to get a move higher to sell additional calls.
A few positions that you may want to consider; PBR is looking really good after breaking the wedge and pulling back. Consider the APR 10 calls because of the great price and nice open interest.
BABA gaped up to much to chase so we will have to wait on it.
NFLX broke out and is holding nicely keep a close eye on it for an entry. Earnings will be coming soon but often stocks like this will rally toward the earnings date.
AIG may be setting up keep a close eye on it.
CVS is set up. It reports on 2/9/17. The April 75 calls are okay but the better volume is in in the May 75 contracts but either should work. If you want to lower the cost of the trade consider selling the April 90 strikes for a debit spread. Just keep in mind the earnings date.
I will post this to the website but if someone could please post in the room that I had sent this out that would be very helpful. Thank You! FYI, There is no video attached.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Good morning!
Last Friday I felt like I was coming down with a cold and by Saturday morning it hit me really hard. This morning I’m still really sick and due to all the coughing I have no voice. Because of that, there will be no video attached and I will have to cancel the RWO room today. I will, however, be around all day motoring trades and looking for new entries. Please understand any new entries will have no video but I will put together a text version. Sorry for the inconvenience I don’t expect ti to last long.
This morning the Dow futures are pointing to a slightly bearish open and I think it is time to watch closely for the potential of a rollover. Let me be clear, I am not expecting a rollover but the failure to breakthrough 20K makes me want to watch closely for signs that the bears are taking over. Let’s keep in mind that the QQQ is looking very strong so it’s not the time to run for the doors just yet.
We have a couple Fed speakers today and some bond auctions but other than that the economic calendar is quiet and pretty much remains so until Friday when we have several big reports.
The positions in BMY and MSFT are both in very good shape. With earnings approaching I will be working out plans on how we will handle this positions this week. As you know I hold several stock positions holding modest gains a couple positions holding modest losses. Such is the nature of a consolidating market if it could breakout I would likely have some very nice profits but if it breaks down I will need to capture some small gains and avoid letting the losers get out of hand. As always the first and foremost thing to do is manage the positions that you are in!
There is no video attached.
Trade wisely,
Doug
Good morning and Happy Friday!
This morning’ market is all the Employment Situation report that will be out one hour before the market opens putting us retail traders at a major disadvantage. After the number, the market will react and of course, there is really nothing we can do about it. There seems to be a little concern that we will see a number softer than expected. The target is 178,000. I fit comes in higher expect the market to move up, however, a print lower than 150,000 would likely bring in the bears.
All we can do this morning is to manage the trades that we are in. The reaction to the number is out of our control but if we remain calm and follow our rules everything should work out just fine. We also have International Trade numbers and Factory Orders coming out this morning that could a small influence on market direction.
The next hurdle is that we have 4 Fed speakers today. I doubt we will hear anything new but as you know all one these folks has to do is suggest that they believe we need another interest rate hike soon and the market will react in about half a heartbeat so it would be wise to remain flexible, stay on your toes and be prepared to react is necessary.
Have an awesome day and a fantastic weekend!
Trade wisely,
Doug
Click Here to Watch the Morning Video
