Markets opened modestly lower Friday.  SPY opened down 0.16%, DIA opened down 0.09%, and QQQ opened down 0.34%.  From there, all three of the major index ETFs meandered back-and-forth around the opening gap until 12:30 p.m.  Then the market saw a sharp rally for a little over an hour, followed by a weaker selloff for an hour, with all three then drifting modestly bullishly the rest of the day.  This action gave us small gap-down, white-bodied candles, with wicks at both ends in SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  DIA was a prototypical Spinning Top candle.  All three crossed back above their T-line (8ema), although DIA only did so by a dime.  This happened on average volume in DIA and QQQ as well as less-than-average volume on the SPY.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were green with Technology (+0.57%) and Financial Services (+0.56%) out front leading the others higher.  Meanwhile, Industrials (-0.10%) was the only sector in the red (barely).  At the same time, SPY gained 0.44%, DIA gained 0.16%, and QQQ gained 0.52%. VXX plummeted 12.12% to close at 55.78 and T2122 fell but remained in its mid-range at 38.79.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 3.94% and Oil (WTI) popped another 1.04% to close at $76.98 per barrel.  So, Friday was a meandering day with less energy that the other days in the week.  As a result, the magnitude of the whipsaws Friday was muted. 

This action ended a tumultuous week that started with a huge gap lower and featured heavy volatility, especially early in the week.  That said, the week ended as “much ado about nothing” as stocks rallied back from the huge INTC-inspired gap lower Monday.  SPY ended the week up 0.02% after trading in nearly a 5% range during that time. DIA did end the week 0.50% lower after having been down more than 3% at one point.  And QQQ was the show-stealer, closing the week up 0.37% after having been down 5.59% at one point and trading in almost a 7% range for the 5-days.

There was no major economic news scheduled for Friday. In addition, there were no earnings reports after the close Friday.

In Fed speak news, on Saturday, Fed Governor Bowman softened her normal very hawkish tone.  She noted “welcome” evidence of inflation reduction and seemed to indicate rate cuts will be needed if inflation stays on a downward trajectory.  Bowman said, “Should the incoming data continue to show that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal, it will become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive on economic activity and employment.”  The prepared remarks were delivered to a Kansas City Banking Assn.

In stock news, on Friday, STLA announced it is planning to lay off 2,450 US workers later this year as it plans to end production of the “Ram 1500 Classic” truck.  (Layoffs may begin as soon as October 8.)  Later, SBUX gained on a Wall Street Journal report that activist fund Starboard Value had taken a significant position in the company.  At the same time, BA announced it had been awarded a $2.56 billion contract from the USAF for the development of two rapid prototypes of airborne warning and control aircraft.  Later, after the close, C announced it has initiated a process to sell its Trust Services business unit.  (No details were provided.)  On Saturday. Reuters reported that CSCO will cut thousands of more jobs in a second round of layoffs this year.  (CSCO laid off 4,000 employees in February.)  Also on Saturday, TSLA stopped taking orders for the cheapest version of its Cybertruck ($61k) and not only has the $100k version available for sale.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the NHTSA announced it had opened an investigation into 330k HYMTF (Hyundai) vehicles over potentially faulty seatbelts.  At the same time, the SEC announced it had reached settlements with the CEO of IDEX and two of the company’s former executives related to securities fraud and misleading financial reporting.  Later, JPM asked a federal judge in Manhattan to dismiss its case against Russian VTB Bank, which was seeking to recover $439.5 million in accounts frozen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  JPM said it was being coerced to request the dismissal by a Russian injunction on JPM and fear of what retaliatory action would take place if the suit was not dropped.  At the same time, META won an appeal by RFK Jr.’s anti-vax group which had been alleging censorship due to META’s policy against the spread of misinformation.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green with eight of the 12 exchanges in positive territory.  Taiwan (+1.42%) and South Korea (+1.15%) led the gainers while Singapore (-0.81%) paced the losses.  In Europe, with the sold exception of Belgium (-0.18%) we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.05%), DAX (+0.28%), and FTSE (+0.59%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:45 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.20% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are back up to 3.955% and Oil (WTI) is up another 1.09% to $77.68 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday includes NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (11 a.m.), the WASDE Ag report (noon), and Fed Budget Balance (2 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include GOLD, CEPU, FTRE, and BEKE.  Then, after the close AGRO, PACS, AND SLF report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get July Core PPI, July PPI, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report.  In addition, Fed member Bostic speaks.  Then Wednesday, July Core CPI, July CPI, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initials Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, July Core Retail Sales, July Export Price Index, July Import Price Index, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index, July Retail Sales, July Industrial Production, Jun Business Inventories, June Retail Inventories, TIC Net Long-Term Transactions, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  We also hear from Fed member Harker.  Finally, on Friday, July Building Permits, July Housing Starts, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from HD, JHX, MLCO, ONON, SE, TME, CIG, FNV, and NU.  Then Wednesday, ARCO, EAT, CAE, CAH, DOLE, ESLT, ICL, PFGC, UBS, CSCO, and STNE report.  On Thursday, we hear from BABA, AIT, DE, GRAB, JD, NICE, SPTN, TPR, WMT, AMCR, AMAT, COHR, GLOB, and HRB.  Finally, on Friday, FLO reports.

So far this morning, GOLD and BEKE reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, FTRE missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the CFTC said that short bets on 5-Year Treasury Bond Futures were now the largest on record.  The report stain almost 1.7 million contracts of short bets were in place as of the week ending Aug. 6.  (Two-Year and 10-Year Bond Future short bets also increased during the week, but were not at record levels.)  Elsewhere, the state of MI reported a human case of Swine Flu on Friday. (The source of exposure is still under investigation and no word on patient outcome was given.)  Meanwhile, Sunday was the 900^th day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (if you do not count the 2014 invasion that stole Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine) and the 6^th day of the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk oblast of Russia.

With that background, it looks as if markets are tepidly bullish again early today. All three major index ETFs made a modest gap higher to start the premarket. Since then, SPY and DIA have printed white-body, small-wick candles while QQQ had printed a black-body, mostly-wick candle. All three are back above their T-line (8ema) and the short-term trend remains bullish. However, the mid-term trend is bearish. Still, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts remain bullish. In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are now back to being close to their T-line (8ema). At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back into the mid-range. So, the market has some room to run if either side can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green led by the biggest dog, NVDA (+0.79%), which also leads by far on the dollar-volume traded as usual, and AMZN (+0.78%). The second-largest dollar volume trader is TSLA (-0.30%), which is also the biggest loser in premarket.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Jobless Claims data helped the Bulls who were in-charge Thursday.  SPY gapped up 1.03%, DIA gapped up 0.45%, and QQQ gapped up 1.43%. From there, DIA continued higher immediately and strongly for an hour.  Meanwhile SPY and QQQ pulled back for 20 minutes before the Bulls followed the DIA in a strong rally, which lasted until 10:50 a.m.  At that point, all three major index ETFs ground sideways until 1 p.m. Then the entire market rallied again to new highs of the day at 2:25 p.m.  From there, we saw a 75-minute, moderate pullback followed by a 20-minute bounce at the end of the day to take all three major index ETFs out near the highs of the day. This action gave us large white-bodied candles in all three.  All three had small upper wicks, with DIA having very little lower wick, SPY having a modest lower wick, and QQQ having a large lower wick.  All three retested their T-line (8ema) from below and closed just below that level.  This happened on average volume in SPY and QQQ as well as less-than-average volume on the DIA.

On the day, all 10 sectors were green with Technology (+3.60%) way out front leading the others higher.  Meanwhile, Utilities (+0.70%) and Consumer Defensive (+0.77%) lagging well behind the others.  At the same time, SPY gained 2.31%, DIA gained 1.75%, and QQQ gained 3.06%. VXX plummeted 7.96% to close at 63.47 while T2122 climbed back out of its oversold area to 42.22.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields jumped up to 3.989% and Oil (WTI) popped another 1.10% to close at $76.06 per barrel.  So, Thursday was bullish revenge day where NVDA (+6.13%) led the charge of the 10 big dogs leading the rest of the market higher.  In fact, it was the best day for SPY since 2022.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday was limited to the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which showed a bit less than expected filings at 233k (compared to a forecast of 241k and the prior week’s 250k).  At the same time, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were higher than predicted at 1,875k (versus a 1,870k forecast and the previous week’s reading of 1,869k).  Together, this Jobless Claims data calmed market fears about recession, causing a premarket surge.  Later, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet was down by $3 billion, from $7.178 trillion to $7.175 trillion.

In Fed speak news, on Thursday, Richmond Fed President Barkin played down the idea of a need for urgent (especially inter-meeting) rate cuts.  He said the FOMC has time to determine where the economy is, saying “I think you’ve got some time in a healthy economy to figure out whether this is an economy gently moving into a normalizing state … it this one where you really do have to lean into it (meaning cuts).” Speaking about the labor market, he said “What I hear from folks on the ground in the labor market is that people are cutting back on hiring, but not firing.”   In relation to inflation, he said, “I’m actually pretty optimistic that over the next few months we’re going to see good readings on the inflation side.”  Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee reiterated his earlier statements that the Fed’s job is not to respond to the stock market or political considerations.  He said, “The Fed’s out of the election business. The Fed is in the economic business.” He went on to say, “We’re not in the business of responding to the stock market. We’re in the business of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices.”

After the close, AKAM, AMN, CCU, DTEGY, DBX, DXC, EDN, EVH, EXPE, G, GILD, NWSA, NWS, PBI, REZI, RXT, SOLV, and TTD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ATSG, IAG, PARAA, PBA, and PARA missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CPRI, CENX, PODD, PAAS, and TTWO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, NGL, SSP, and TTEC missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Thursday, Reuters reported that DAL, UAL, RYAAY, and ESYJY among other airlines have suspended flights to various parts of the Middle East due to rising tensions between Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthis, and Iran.  Later, GM made an odd announcement, saying it is committed to building a profitable operation in China.  The GM CFO said he did not “necessarily accept” the idea that GM is struggling to make money in China, despite the company reporting a $104 million loss in the country in Q2.  At the same time, Reuters reported that AMZN CEO Jassy is happy with the progress of the company’s “Prime Video” and is planning a significant expansion.  (AMZN increased its investment into Prime Video from $1.7 billion to $13.6 billion for 2024.)   Later, TMICY (Trend Micro) is exploring a sale after getting buyout interest in the last few weeks.  After the close, as part of its earnings announcement, PARA said it would be cutting 15% of its workforce.  (The stock was up on the earnings and job cut announcement.) 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, NTSB Chair Homendy said the agency would like to complete its probe of the BA 737 MAX 9 mid-air door blow-out early in 2025.  She told Reuters that 12-14 months from the time of the January 5 incident would be the target, adding that a survey of BA’s workers in Renton WA will begin soon.  Later, the NHTSA announced that BMWYY (BMW) will recall just under 106k crossover and sedan cars to fix a starter motor overheating issue via a software update.  At the same time, the Fed announced it had imposed an enforcement action on CUBI for “significant deficiencies” related to its risk management and money-laundering practices.  Later, AAPL announce it has changed its EU app store policy and will now charge app developers a fee of 1% on apps, as well as reducing AAPL commissions on all digital goods and services sold through the AAPL’s EU App Store.  (This move came after an investigation and anti-trust finding against AAPL by the EU, but prior to announcement of final punishments.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green to end the turbulent week.  Taiwan (+2.87%), Australia (+1.25%), South Korea (+1.24%), and Hong Kong (+1.17%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we nearly see green across the board at midday with only AEX (-0.10%) in the red.  Meanwhile, the CAC (+0.32%), DAX (+0.15%), and FTSE (+0.39%) lead 14 of the 15 bourses higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:45 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly red start to the morning.  The DIA implies a -0.05% open, the SPY is implying a -0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.11% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.944% and Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent to $76.67 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Friday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AQN, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, CLMT, ROAD, ERJ, EVRG, and NFE.  Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled. 

So far this morning, AMRX, CLMT, ROAD, and SLVM have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AMCX and ERVG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, SATS and NFE missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, despite market rumors, the Russian natural gas deliveries to Europe through the pipeline from Russia continue according to both the Ukrainian and German Energy Ministers.  Ukrainian forces captured a transit/pumping station of the pipeline (located in Sudzha, Russia) during an offensive into Russia earlier this week.  (It is worth noting that 50% of all Russian natural gas exports to Europe flow through that station.)  Elsewhere, CBOE announced it is taking the term “derivatives” to a whole new level.  The exchange plans to launch options tied to the futures of the VIX, which itself is a based on the options that track the S&P 500.  (Take a minute and try to grasp that in full.  CBOE will sell options based on futures of an index that is based on options that are based on another index.)  This new vehicle is scheduled to begin trading on October 14, pending regulatory review.

With that background, it looks as if markets are somewhat calm again so far this morning . All three major index ETFs opened higher in the premarket, but then sold back into the red before recovering into the very modest green just now. The very short-term trend is now bullish while the mid-term trend is bearish. However, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts remain bullish. (For example, look at a Monthly chart. There is no way to call SPY, DIA, or QQQ bearish based on those monthly charts.) In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are now back to being close to their T-line (8ema). At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now back up out of its oversold area and into the mid-range. So, the market has some room to run if either side can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split between red and green. However, NVDA (+1.28%) leading the tech in terms of gain and is by far the largest dollar-volume trader The second-largest dollar volume trader is TSLA (+0.08%) which is also (barely) on the green side. Finally, remember its Friday. Monday morning’s gap should have been a warning that you need to prepare your account for weekend news cycles.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets did another trap Wednesday, this time trapping the Bulls.  The SPY gapped up 1.22%, Dia gapped up 0.72%, and QQQ gapped up 1.62%.  At the point, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways in a volatile manner until just after 11 a.m.  Then, the rout was on as the selling started and drove all three back down across the open gap and on to new lows at 3 p.m. From they all made a modest bounce that didn’t quite make it back to the previous close before rolling over again.  This led to the sharpest selling of the day during the last 10 minutes and led to SPY and QQQ closing very near their lows of the day while DIA closed not too far up from its own lows.  SPY and QQQ both retested and failed their T-line (8ema) during the day and DIA came close, but did not quite reach a retest before selling off.  This action gave us large, black-body candles with upper wicks in all three major index ETFs. SPY and QQQ printed Bearish Engulfing candles while DIA missed that shape by just a bit.  This all happened on just a tad more than average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were red with Basic Materials (-1.75%), Healthcare (-1.40%), and Consumer Cyclical (-1.39%) being the biggest movers.  Meanwhile, Communications Services (0.46%), Utilities (+0.43%), and Energy (+0.36%) were the only appreciable gaining sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.67%, DIA fell 0.57%, and QQQ dropped 1.08%. VXX fell 1.77% to close at 69.22 while T2122 dropped back down into the top end of its oversold area at 16.67.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields jumped up to 3.95% and Oil (WTI) spiked 3.10% to close at $75.47 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was a Bull Trap with a large gap higher, followed by chop, and then the floor fell out.  (The gap was likely the result of US markets following the rest of the world higher on Bank of Japan calming tones leading traders to think the “Carry Trade” (borrowing money at cheap interest in Japan and investing it in higher-yielding stock in the US) may not be dead.  It felt like the Bears waited for Europe to close and then pulled the rug out from under the Bulls.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday was limited to EIA Crude Oil Inventories, which fell 3.728 million barrels (compared to a forecasted drawdown of 1.600 million barrels but only slightly larger than the previous week’s 3.436-million-barrel drawdown).  Later, the June Consumer Credit report showed a reduction to $8.93 billion (versus a $9.80 billion forecast and well down from the May $13.95 billion reading).  In other words, spending on credit cards and other borrowing dropped 30% month-on-month.

After the close, APP, CACI, CF, CPAY, CW, ENS, FWRD, HUBS, ICUI, JXN, LNW, MMS, MKSI, OXBC, PRI, HOOD, RGLD, SM, STN, TALO, UVV, VSAT, WES, WTS, ZG, and Z all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, DOX, ATO, BHF, CENT, CENTA, CPA, EQIX, HI, MATV, MCK, MFC, OXY, SBGI, UGI, and MODG missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AE, CHRD, ET, MTW, and MRO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ALTG, NVST, MNST, MODV, and WBD missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Wednesday, Reuters reported that major US natural gas producers are preparing to further cut production in order to prop up natgas prices.  The article cites sources at EQT and APA indicate each will cut 90 billion cubic feet per day in production in the second half. In addition, CHK, AR, and EGO are deferring completion of natural gas projects.  Later, EQR announced that it had agreed to acquire 11 major apartment properties (nearly 3,600 apartments total) from BX for $964 million.  At the same time, during its earnings call, DIS announced it may have to pay $5 billion more to acquire CMCSA’s minority stake in Hulu.  The unexpected expense would stem from a CMCSA request that the deal’s appraiser value Hulu at $40 billion. 

Meanwhile, BA said it has ramped up “seeker” (a key component of Patriot anti-missile systems) production after a surge in demand.  BA says it expects 2024 annual production of seekers to beat its previous record production by 20%.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that BHP is considering the sale of its Brazilian gold and copper mining assets that the company acquired during its buyout of much smaller peer Oz Minerals.  (BHP said the purchase of Oz was made to gain access to minerals used in batteries, as opposed to gold and copper.)  Later, after the close, NASA announced that BA’s stranded Starliner crew may return on a SpaceX Dragon capsule in February 2025 since it is still deemed too unsafe to return the Starliner to Earth.  (Meaning the planned 8-day Starliner flight would end up lasting 9-months.) Finally, overnight CNBC reported sources telling it that AAPL is planning to charge iPhone users roughly $20 per month for its AI offering, possibly as part of its “Apple One” subscription. This lucrative service will be rolled out across some AAPL devices later this year.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, BLK and NDAQ jointly asked for an SEC rule change that would allow the listing and trading of options on Ethereum spot price ETFs.  (Comments on the rule request are open for 21 days.)  At the same time, KR won the dismissal of a lawsuit that alleged the grocery chain’s “Farm Fresh” label on eggs misled consumers not on the “fresh” claim but rather that industrial egg production plants are not “farms.”  Later, the NHTSA announced it has opened a new investigation into reports of a “steering rod failure” safety issue among more than 77k NSANY (Nissan) 2021 Rogue crossover vehicles.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is investigating JPM, BAC, and WFC in relation to the banks handling of peer-to-peer Zelle network funds transfers. (The banks told Reuters they are considering whether to sue the CFPB over the agency’s inquiries.) 

Elsewhere, during its hearings into BA safety issues, the NTSB announced it will conduct a survey of 737 MAX factory workers related to safety (quality) culture after determining the mistakes that led to January’s mid-air blowout of a fuselage panel should have been caught years earlier (and the company could not identify what factory workers had even worked on the blown-out panel and removed the missing bolts).  At the same time, passengers filed a proposed class-action suit against DAL for refusing refunds after its recent massive computer outage and thousands of flight cancellations (and thousands more delayed).  Later, INTC was sued by shareholders alleging the company fraudulently concealed the problems that led to its poor Q2 results and plans to cut more than 15% of its workforce.  (INTC CEO and CFO are also defendants in the suit.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red with just three of 12 exchanges above break-even. Taiwan (-2.00%), Japan (-0.74%), and India (-0.74%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see red across the board at midday on stronger moves than Asia.  The CAC (-1.13%), DAX (-0.77%), and FTSE (-1.12%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.14% open, the SPY is implying a +0.06% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.16% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields have backed down to 3.925% and Oil (WTI) is unchanged at $75.23 per barrel in early morning trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include WMS, COLD, AVAH, AVT, AZUL, FUN, CQP, LNG, COMM, DDOG, ELAN, LLY, EDR, EPAM, FWONK, ULCC, GTN, HBI, HGV, IHRT, KELYA, KOP, LAMR, LSXMK, LSXMA, MLM, MUR, NXST, NRG, PZZA, PH, PENN, ACDC, RPRX, QSR, SBH, SEE, SN, SPB, TKO, UAA, UA, USFD, VTNR, VTRS, VST, and WMG.  Then, after the close, ATSG, AKAM, AMN, BTG, CIB, CPRI, CENX, BAP, DBX, DXC, SSP, EVH, EXPE, G, GILD, IAG, NWSA, NGL, PAAS, PARAA, PARA, PBA, PBI, RXT, REZI, SOLV, TTWO, TTD, and TTEC report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, there are no major economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, CLMT, ROAD, ERJ, EVRG, and NFE report.

So far this morning, ALIZY, AVAH, BN, CEIX, DDOG, ELAN, LLY, EPAM, LAMR, NRG, PENN, QSR, SBH, SEE, SN, FOUR, UA, and UAA all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, WMS, COLD, CQP, GTN, HBI, MUR, PZZA, and VTRS missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, COMM, PRMW, SPB, TKO, USFD, and VTNR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ATS, MLM, and NXST missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, global container shipping company Maersk (AMKAF) announced that it expects global container shipping (which is a measure of global GDP) to slow in the second half. The company cited blow-ups in the Middle East (following Israel’s targeting killings in Lebanon and Iran, along with Hezbollah, Iran, and Hamas retaliation expected).  For the full year, Maersk expects global container demand to increase 4% – 6%, which is down significantly from the 7% growth seen in the first half of 2024.  Elsewhere, GS reported hedge funds had the best first half returns that they have seen since 2021.  GS said their survey of 314 hedge funds fount that the average fund made a 5.7% return during the first half, which was not far from 2023’s full-year 7.1%.

With that background, it looks as if the market has settled a bit this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped down a little to start the premarket. However, from there they have put in white-bodied candles to recover most or all of the gap. DIA is the most indecisive of the three and the QQQ gap down took it near to retesting its 200sma which may have aided its bounce in the early session. The short-term trend remains clearly bearish as is the mid-term trend. However, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts are not yet bearish. (For example, look at a Monthly chart. There is no way to call SPY, DIA, or QQQ bearish based on those monthly charts.) In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are a bit stretched below their T-line (8ema). At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now back down in its oversold range. So, the market is in need of some rest or a relief bounce. However, the extension is not overwhelming and the bounce does not need to be today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning with INTC (+0.95%) leading the tech in terms of gain. However, NVDA (+0.28%) is again by far the largest dollar-volume traded (as usual).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Tuesday, markets continued its rebound after Monday’s brutal gap down.  The SPY gapped up 0.39%, DIA opened 0.12% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.45%. From there, all three major index ETFs rallied most of the day to reach the highs just before 3 p.m.  At that point, all three sold off sharply the last 75 minutes of the day.  This action gave us gap-up, white-bodied Spinning Top candles in all three major index ETFs. However, all three had large upper wicks.  DIA also retested and failed its 50sma from below. This all happened on slightly above-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

For the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Communications Services (+1.41%) leading the way higher.  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (+0.74%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY gained 1.02%, DIA gained 0.88%, and QQQ gained 1.07%. VXX dropped sharply (but not nearly as sharply as it spiked Monday) to close at 72.38.  Meanwhile, T2122 jumped up out of the bottom of its oversold territory into the lower end of the mid-range at 30.68.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields spiked up to 3.902% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.26% to close at $73.13 per barrel.  So, Tuesday saw a modest recovery from Monday’s brutal losses.  However, late profit-taking wiped out much of the bounce.  So, again, volatility was the watchword of the day.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included the June Exports, which came in up at $265.90 billion (compared to a May $262.00 billion value).  On the other side, June Imports were also up, but not quite as much at $339.00 billion (versus a May reading of $337.00 billion).  Together, these resulted in a lower Trade Deficit as the June Trade Balance was at $73.10 billion (higher than the $72.50 billion forecast and down from May’s $75.00 billion reading).  Finally, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks showed a very minor build of 0.180 million barrels (compared to an expected 0.850-million-barrel build and far larger than the prior week’s -4.495-million-barrel drawdown).

At noon, the US EIA released its EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook update.  In it, the EIA increased its 2024 forecasts for US oil demand by 100k barrels per day to 20.5 million bpd. However, it left its world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 102.9 million bpd.  Meanwhile, the EIA predicts US oil production will reach a new record of 13.23 million bpd this year, up 300k bpd.  At the same time, EIA cut its forecast annual avg. oil price for WTI by 2.2% to $80.21 per barrel.  Despite this, the agency expects Brent prices to remain between $85 and $90 by year end.  On the Natural Gas side, the EIA cut its US production forecast to 103.3 billion cubic feet per day (down from the prior forecast of 103.5 bcfpd.

After the close, AMGN, AIZ, AXON, CLW, CPNG, DVA, DVN, EXEL, FBAK, FTNT, GMED, GO, HY, ILMN, CART, IFF, MASI, MRC, PR, SKY, STE, SNEX, LRN, SU, RUN, TOST, and VFC all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AGL, AFG, ASH, PARR, and TRIP missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, IAC, LUMN, RIVN, SVC, and SMCI beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ABNB, ARKO, CRC, ENLC, PLUS, MOS, TSE, and WYNN missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, UAL began negotiations with the Teamster union for a contract related to 10k aviation maintenance and related workers.  At the same time, MSFT fired back at DAL (similar to how CRWD had done on Monday) saying the airline refused help and unlike its competitors had failed to upgrade and maintain its global IT infrastructure.  MSFT said these failures have made the airline’s recovery to normal operations much longer and harder to accomplish than what their peers experienced. Later, SCHW said that high trading volumes and a technical issue with a “key vendor” was the cause of the brokerage’s Monday outage and long customer service wait times.  At the same time, NASA announced Tuesday that problems with BA’s Starliner spacecraft has caused it to push back the next scheduled launch of astronauts for at least one month.  (The most recent Starliner launch remains stuck at the International Space Station since the beginning of June.)  Later, after the close, SMCI announced a 10-for-1 stock split on September 30 (trading split on October 1).  At the same time, Reuters reported that VFC, LEVI, BRKB (via its Fruit of the Loom brand), TPR and TGT are the apparel makers with the biggest exposure to the political turmoil in Bangladesh.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, SPWR filed for to request Chapter 11 bankruptcy and agreed to sell some of its assets for $45 million.  At the same time, the NHTSA released documents at the start of two 10-hour days of hearings into the BA 737 MAX 9 jet mid-air panel blowout incident from January.  Later the UK antitrust regulator announced it has begun its review of the IBM acquisition of HCP.  At the same time, Chinese regulators announced that TSLA will be performing a “remote recall” (over-the-air update) on 1.7 million cars in that country to fix a defect that files to indicate when the hood is latched.  At the same time, the SEC and CFTC announced that PIPR will pay a total of $16 million in civil penalties to resolve investigations into its trading record-keeping practices. (These very innocuous words cover the fact that the cases stem from unauthorized business communications with other traders via off-books communications platforms.  In other words, collusion between major market participants.)

Elsewhere, legal analysts said that Monday’s blockbuster antitrust ruling against GOOGL may actually aid AAPL in its own antitrust case brought by the same Dept of Justice and states).  The only part of the case where the court ruled in favor of GOOGL was in upholding the ultra-conservative SCOTUS ruling that companies (even monopolies) almost never have a duty to deal with competitors.  This is a key point in AAPL’s defense of its own antitrust case. Later, many major advertisers such as CVS, UL, and others as well as a major ad industry group were sued by the former Twitter as Elon Musk alleges, they are unlawfully conspiring to boycott advertising on his social media platform.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board with only Shenzhen (-0.17%) preventing a clean sweep.  Taiwan (+3.87%) continued its big rebound from Monday while South Korea (+1.83%), Hong Kong (+1.38%), and India (+1.27%) led the main pack of gainers.  In Europe, we do see green across the board on multi-percent moves from all 15 bourses at midday.  The CAC (+1.69%), DAX (+1.28%), and FTSE (+1.10%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.86% open, the SPY is implying a +1.25% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.51% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are higher to 3.933% and Oil (WTI) has popped 1.76% to $74.49 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.) and June Consumer Credit (3 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ADV, BCO, BAM, CRL, CCO, SID, CNDT, CRH, CVS, DBD, DDL, EMR, ENOV, GEO, GLP, GPN, GFF, HLT, HMC, IEP, KMT, LPX, LYFT, NEUE, NYT, NI, NOMD, NVO, DNOW, ODP, OGE, OSCR, PLTK, RCM, RL, REYN, ROK, RXO, SHOP, SONY, SUN, TGNA, PRKS, VSTS, VSH, DIS, and ZBH.  Then, after the close, AE, ALTG, DOX, APP, ATO, BHF, CACI, CENT, CENTA, CF, CHRD, CPA, CPAY, CPAY, CAPL, CW, EFXT, ET, ENS, NVST, EQIX, FWRD, HG, HI, HUBS, ICUI, JXN, LNW, MTW, MFC, MRO, MATV, MMS, MCK, MKSI, MODV, MNST, NTR, OXY, PRI, HOOD, RGLD, SBGI, SM, STN, TALO, MODG, UGI, VSAT, WBD, WTS, WES, ZG, and Z report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from WMS, COLD, AVAH, AVT, AZUL, FUN, CQP, LNG, COMM, DDOG, ELAN, LLY, EDR, EPAM, FWONK, ULCC, GTN, HBI, HGV, IHRT, KELYA, KOP, LAMR, LSXMK, LSXMA, MLM, MUR, NXST, NRG, PZZA, PH, PENN, ACDC, RPRX, QSR, SBH, SEE, SN, SPB, TKO, UAA, UA, USFD, VTNR, VTRS, VST, WMG, ATSG, AKAM, AMN, BTG, CIB, CPRI, CENX, BAP, DBX, DXC, SSP, EVH, EXPE, G, GILD, IAG, NWSA, NGL, PAAS, PARAA, PARA, PBA, PBI, RXT, REZI, SOLV, TTWO, TTD, and TTEC.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, CLMT, ROAD, ERJ, EVRG, and NFE report.

So far this morning, BCO, CTTAY, DBD, GPN, HMC, KMT, ADRNY, LPX, LYFT, NYT, OSCR, RCM, REYN, ROK, SHOP, SONY, SUN, VSH, DIS, and ZBH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CRL, CVS, EMR, ENOV, HLT, NI, NOMD, PLTK, and RXO missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BAM, DDL, GEO, and OGE beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line. However, CCO, NVO, DNOW, ODP, and PRKS missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, an independent council charged with governance of carbon credits reported that about one-third of all existing carbon credits fail to meet the new standard.  The new standard is that the ventures from which the credits are bought must not depend on carbon credit sales revenue to exist.  Elsewhere, 110k customers remain without power in Northern FL following the passing of storm Debby.  Meanwhile, the Fed released its Household Debt survey results for Q2.  The headline is that total US Household Debt edged higher (+0.6%) in the quarter, but the rate of loan delinquencies remained at 3.2%.  (For reference, that delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 4.7% at the end of 2019, before the pandemic.)  Elsewhere, overnight the global market recovery was given a boost by hints that the carry trade (borrowing money at negative interest in Japan to invest at a higher rate elsewhere) is not dead.  The Deputy Bank of Japan Governor gave dovish signals by pledging to refrain from hiking interest rates when stock markets are unstable.  (This caused the Yen to fall 2% against the Dollar.)

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are in control early this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket and have printed large, white-body candles (almost no wick) since that gap up. However, be aware that DIA is now retesting its 50sma from below and the SPY and QQQ may also be retesting a potential resistance level above. One candle does not make a trend. So, the short-term trend remains clearly bearish as is the mid-term trend. However, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts are not yet bearish. (For example, look at a Monthly chart. There is no way to call SPY, DIA, or QQQ bearish based on those monthly charts.) In terms of extension, the premarket moves have moved all three major index ETFs back closer to their T-lines above and relief a lot of their over-extension, but more relief may be in order. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now out of its oversold range. So, the market has a little more slack to work with in either direction than it did after Monday’s huge gap down. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green this morning with NVDA (+2.02%) leading the rebound again both in terms of gain and dollar-volume traded. The bottom line is that markets are bullish early today but this may just be a relief rally. Remain cautious and be careful of intraday volatility. The whipsaw is real.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Well, Monday was a brutal day for Bulls and a volatile day for everyone.  SPY gapped down a massive 4.01%, DIA gapped down 2.97%, and QQQ gapped down a whopping 5.45%. However, the chasers got hammered as all three major index ETFs rallied hard off that open level (in a very volatile way) with SPY reaching a high at 12:30 p.m. that was up 2.31% from the open.  At the same time, SPY was up 1.00% from its open and QQQ was up 4.25% from its open at 12:30 p.m. Then, all three started an afternoon wave down that lasted the rest of the day.  DIA even recrossed below its opening level.  This action gave us huge gap-down, white-bodied candles with large upper wicks in the SPY and QQQ. Meanwhile, DIA gave us a huge gape-down, white-bodied Spinning Top candle.  QQQ also retested (and passed the test) its 200sma on the day.  This all happened on much heavier-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-3.02%) leading the charge lower.  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (-2.01%) “held up better” than other sectors but clearly the losses were widespread.  At the same time, SPY dropped 2.91%, DIA fell 2.60%, and QQQ dropped 2.98%. VXX spiked a massive 39.22% to close at 87.26 (the highest level it has seen since October 2023).  VXX (and the underlying VIX) had the largest intraday jump ever during the session.  Meanwhile, T2122 plummeted all the way down to the bottom of its oversold territory at 2.11.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields recovered to close down to 3.777% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.41% to close at $73.81 per barrel.  So, Monday was a brutal day as US markets followed the rest of the world by opening with a huge gap lower.  However, the whiplash was real with a strong (multi-percent) rally off the open and then whipsaw lower in the afternoon hammered the late dip buyers that chased.  In short, there was pain to go around for everybody on Monday with the biggest dose reserved for Bulls that held long going into the weekend.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday included July S&P Global Services PMI, which came in a bit low at 55.0 (compared to a forecast of 56.0 but down just a bit from June’s 55.3 reading).  At the same time, July S&P Global Composite PMI was 54.3 (versus a forecast of 55.0 and down just a bit from June’s 54.8 value).  Later, July ISM Non-Mfg. Employment Index was much stronger than expected at 51.1 (compared to a forecast to 46.4 and a June 46.1 number).  At the same time, July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was up to 51.4 (exactly on the 51.4 forecast and well up from June’s 48.8 value).   Meanwhile, July ISM Non-Mfg. Prices Index was also hotter than anticipated at 57.0 (versus a 56.0 forecast and a June 56.3 number).

In Fed speak news, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told the NY Times said he sees the risk of waiting too long to cut rates.  Goolsbee said, “You only want to be that restrictive if you think there’s fear of overheating.” He continued, “These data, to me, do not look like overheating … as you see jobs numbers come in weaker than expected but not looking yet like recession, I do think you want to be forward-looking at where the economy is headed for (in) making the decisions.”  Goolsbee wanted to be clear that he did not care about the stock market and his remarks were based solely on last week’s data.  He said, “The law doesn’t say anything about the stock market; it’s about the employment and it’s about price stability.”  These remarks came after many analysts and talking heads began calling for “emergency rate cuts” prior to the next scheduled (September 18) FOMC meeting.

After the close, ACM, BRBR, BMRN, BCC, BWXT, CBT, CRGY, CSX, FANG, EHC, KMPR, PLTR, PRIM, O, and STRL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AHR, FG, HUN, JELD, OKE, SUM, VSTO, WMB, and YUMC missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, FNF and SPG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, AAN, CAR, and SPR missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Monday, in search of some bad headline relief, INTC announced it is in the process of getting $383 million of ASML’s newest technology “High NA” EUV tools.  At the same time, IQVIA Data published research showing that LLY’s Zepbound has gained ground on NVO’s Wegovy in the lucrative GLP-1 weight-loss drug market.  The report said that LLY’s drug now has about 40% of the market compared to 60% for NVO’s drug.  (Some analysts see this market reaching $150 billion annually in the US by the early 2030s.)  Meanwhile, Reuters reported that private candy giant Mars is considering acquiring K in order to pickup the Rice Krsipy Treat, Pringles Chips, and Pop-Tart brands.  (K surged almost 20% before closing up 16.23% on the news.) At the same time, QMCO announced it will buy Cogentrix Energy from CG for roughly $3 billion.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, the NHTSA said it is seeking information on a fatal TSLA Cybertruck crash in TX.  This could be part of the ongoing “Full Self Driving” investigation or an unrelated issue.  Later, GOOGL lost the federal antitrust case brought by the Dept. of Justice, 19 states, and the District of Columbia. The ruling found GOOGL had illegally acted to maintain its search engine monopoly by paying AAPL and others to make GOOGL the default search engine in browsers.  GOOGL will undoubtedly appeal.  After the close, MS announced it had received SEC requests for information about its cash balance sweep program where balances are sent to MS affiliate banks.  Separately, MS said it had reached a conditional settlement to resolve a 2017 lawsuit related to the IPO of OW Bunker, which MS had underwrote.

Also after the close, a proposed class action lawsuit was filed against CRWD on behalf of air travelers who had flights delayed or canceled following the recent global IT catastrophe stemming from a CRWD update release.  At the same time, NVS and VTRS were both hit with a lawsuit from the estate of a woman whose tissue samples (cells) were taken in the 1950s and continue to be used in research today.  (A similar lawsuit was filed by the estate against TMO and that case was settled out of court for an undisclosed sum.)  Meanwhile, GSK won the latest trial (in IL) over the claims that its discontinued heartburn drug Zantac caused cancer.  (This is but one of more than 70k cases that are pending on this issue, most of them located in DE.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side with some notable major rebounds.  Japan (+10.23%), Taiwan (+3.38%), South Korea (+3.30%), and Malaysia (+2.47%) were the notable major moves higher.  Meanwhile, Singapore (-1.39%) was the rebound laggard.  In Europe, only five of the 15 bourses are in the red at midday but the rebounds are not as strong as Asia either.  The CAC (-0.29%), DAX (+0.01%) and FSTE (+0.04%) lead the region, as always, on sheer volume.  However, Greece (+1.72%) is the largest gainer in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m.) Futures are pointing toward a gap higher, but nowhere near as big a move as Monday’s gap down.  The DIA implies a +0.67% open, the SPY is implying a +0.89% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.02% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are also rebounding strongly to 3.859% and Oil (WTI) is up a quarter of a percent to $73.11 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes the June Exports, the June Imports, and the June Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include FOX, GOLF, AHCO, ADNT, ALIT, ATI, GBTG, AU, ARMK, ATKR, AVNT, BAX, BLMN, BR, BRKR, BLDR, CAT, CLVT, CEG, DK, DUK, EPC, ENR, EXPD, FIS, FOXA, GFS, GPRE, GXO, HSIC, H, IDXX, INGR, J, JLL, KVUE. KNF, LCII, MPC, TAP, MPLX, VYX, NVT, OGN, OC, MD, SRE, SWX, STWD, SGRY, TPX, BLD, TDG, TRMB, UBER, UWMC, VVX, VMC, WLK, KLG, YUM, and ZTS.  The, after the close, AGL, ABNB, AFG, AMGN, ARKO, ASH, AIZ, CRC, CPNG, DVA, DVN, ENLC, PLUS, FTNT, GMED, GO, HY, IAC, ILMN, CART, IFF, LUMN, MASI, MOS, MRC, PR, RIVN, SVC, SKY, STE, SNEX, LRN, SU, RUN, SMCI, TOST, TSE, TRIP, VFC, and WYNN report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories and June Consumer Credit are reported.  On Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ADV, BCO, BAM, CRL, CCO, SID, CNDT, CRH, CVS, DBD, DDL, EMR, ENOV, GEO, GLP, GPN, GFF, HLT, HMC, IEP, KMT, LPX, LYFT, NEUE, NYT, NI, NOMD, NVO, DNOW, ODP, OGE, OSCR, PLTK, RCM, RL, REYN, ROK, RXO, SHOP, SONY, SUN, TGNA, PRKS, VSTS, VSH, DIS, ZBH, AE, ALTG, DOX, APP, ATO, BHF, CACI, CENT, CENTA, CF, CHRD, CPA, CPAY, CPAY, CAPL, CW, EFXT, ET, ENS, NVST, EQIX, FWRD, HG, HI, HUBS, ICUI, JXN, LNW, MTW, MFC, MRO, MATV, MMS, MCK, MKSI, MODV, MNST, NTR, OXY, PRI, HOOD, RGLD, SBGI, SM, STN, TALO, MODG, UGI, VSAT, WBD, WTS, WES, ZG, and Z report.  On Thursday, we hear from WMS, COLD, AVAH, AVT, AZUL, FUN, CQP, LNG, COMM, DDOG, ELAN, LLY, EDR, EPAM, FWONK, ULCC, GTN, HBI, HGV, IHRT, KELYA, KOP, LAMR, LSXMK, LSXMA, MLM, MUR, NXST, NRG, PZZA, PH, PENN, ACDC, RPRX, QSR, SBH, SEE, SN, SPB, TKO, UAA, UA, USFD, VTNR, VTRS, VST, WMG, ATSG, AKAM, AMN, BTG, CIB, CPRI, CENX, BAP, DBX, DXC, SSP, EVH, EXPE, G, GILD, IAG, NWSA, NGL, PAAS, PARAA, PARA, PBA, PBI, RXT, REZI, SOLV, TTWO, TTD, and TTEC.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, CLMT, ROAD, ERJ, EVRG, and NFE report.

So far this morning, AHCO, AU, ARMK, AVNT, BAX, BRKR, CELH, CEG, DK, DUK, GFS, KVUE, KNF, LCII, MPC, TAP, MPLX, TDG, UBER, WLK, and ZTS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BR, BLDR, CAT, CLVT, EPC, ENR, FIS, HSIC, H, INGR, J, NVT, OC, MD, STWD, TPX, and YUM missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, GXO and IDXX beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, GOLF, ADNT, ATKR, BLMN, GPRE, VYX, and BLD missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In Fed Rate Cut Expectation news, on Friday, the Fed Fund Futures market has now moved even further than Friday.  After the close Friday, 69.0% expected a half percent rate cut and 31.0% expected a quarter point cut at the September meeting.  However, after Monday’s market bloodbath, only 17.0% expect a quarter-point cut while 83.0% now expect a half-percent cut in September.  There are absolutely no bets that rates will remain the same or increase at the next meeting.  After the November meeting, 9.4% of trades anticipate a three-quarters of a percent cut (down to a 4.5-4.75% rate), while 53.6% now expect a full percentage cut by then and 37.0% expect to have had 1.25% in cuts following the November 7 meeting.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that mortgage financing firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are set to impose stricter rules on commercial; property lenders and brokers.  The new rules will require lenders to independently verify borrower’s financial information for borrowers of multi-family properties.  In addition, tougher cash on hand and income source requirements will apply.  Elsewhere, a Fed survey released Monday reported that US banks saw the best commercial and industrial loan demand in Q2 that had been seen in two years.  This came as the percentage of banks reporting tighter C&I loan standards fell to the lowest level in two years.  (In other words, banks were not tightening requirements and loan demand was up.)  Meanwhile, Reuters reported that unplanned outages at both SCHW and Fidelity made the morning gap worse as nearly 20k traders were unable to access their accounts until the trading day was already underway Monday.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are making a move toward a tepid rebound early. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket. (Not like Monday’s gap down, but still a decent gap up nonetheless.) However, from there we have seen indecision as SPY and QQQ have printed black-body candles with large wicks and DIA has printed a long-legged, white-body Spinning Top for the early session. The short-term trend remains clearly bearish as is the mid-term trend. However, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts are not yet bearish. (For example, look at a Monthly chart. There is no way to call SPY, DIA, or QQQ bearish based on those monthly charts.) In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are now well over-stretched to to downside from their T-line (8ema) and are in need of relief. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is at the bottom of its oversold range. So, the market is in need of a pause or relief bounce at the very minimum. (Just remember, the market can stay oversold longer than we can stay solvent predicting a reversal.) With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning with NVDA (+2.69%) leading the rebound both in terms of gain and dollar-volume traded. The bottom line is that markets are tentative and undecided…and therefore volatile…at the moment. The prudent approach is to either be very fast or very cautious in the trades you take. The Bears have momentum, but have used up a lot of their energy. It would not take too much to panic them in a short squeeze. However, it would also not take much selling to scare off those dip buyers trying to do the squeeze. Caution is the word of the day.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was another big day for the Bears as INTC’s terrible earnings after the bell on Thursday and worst than expected July Payroll data led to another large gap down.  SPY gapped down 1.37%, DIA gapped down 0.83%, and QQQ gapped down 1.98%.  From there, all three major index ETFs followed through to the downside.  QQQ made it to the lows of the day by 10:15 a.m. but SPY and DIA did not reach their lows until 11:30 a.m.  Once they reached the lows, all three put in a series of volatile waves that were modestly bullish side of sideways.  This action gave us large gap-down, black body, Spinning Top candles with in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  QQQ had evenly-split wicks (above/below) but SPY’s wicks lean mostly to the bottom and the DIA wicks were almost exclusively on the bottom of the candle.  (So much so that DIA was much like a very large Black Hammer candle.)  This all happened on heavier-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology and Energy (both -2.95%) and Consumer Cyclical (-2.94%) leading very broad-based large losses among the sectors.  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (+0.39%) was the only green sector that was 0.65% stronger than the next strongest group on the day.  At the same time, SPY dropped 1.83%, DIA fell 1.47%, and QQQ dropped 2.38%. VXX spiked a massive 23.88% to close at 62.57.  Meanwhile, T2122 plummeted down into the top end of its oversold territory at 18.20.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields plummeted down to close at 3.799% and Oil (WTI) dropped 3.01% to close at $74.01 per barrel.  So, Friday was a day when bad news was seen as bad news. The massive bad news out of INTC on Thursday night, coupled with weak July job growth data led traders to run for the exits.  However, by late morning the sellers were done for the week and dip-buyers did a little nibbling for the rest of the day.

For the week, SPY logged its third consecutive down candle losing 2.12%.  Meanwhile, DIA lost 2.18% on the week on its first down week since June.  At the same time, QQQ printed its fourth consecutive weekly loss by falling 3.07%. 

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included July Avg. Hourly Earnings (Year-on-Year), which showed a decline in rate of increase at +3.6% (compared to a +3.7% forecast and a +3.8% June reading).  On the Month-on-Month side, July Avg. Hourly Earnings also showed a slowing increase of +0.2% (versus the +0.3% forecast and June value).  At the same time, July Nonfarm Payrolls showed a much lower increase than predicted at +114k (compared to a +176k forecast and June’s +179k number).  On the private side, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls also showed a much smaller increase than expected at +97k (versus a +148k forecast and June’s +136k reading).  Meanwhile, the July Participation Rate increased to 62.7% (compared to a forecast and June value of 62.6%).  This all resulted in a July Unemployment Rate that jumped to 4.3% (versus the forecast and June reading of 4.1%).  Later, June Factory Orders fell significantly to -3.3% (compares to a -2.7% forecast and May’s -0.5%). 

In Fed speak news, Richmond Fed President Barkin told the NY Times Friday that the July Payrolls report showing a significant slowdown in job gains was “reasonable.”  However, he seemed to dismiss talk of recession and calls for more aggressive rate cuts.  Barkin said, “More significant reductions typically would be associated with an economy that feels like it’s deteriorating rapidly. And again, 114,000 jobs, while not as good as we’ve been running, on a long-term basis, is a reasonable number.”  Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the Fed should move in a “steady” fashion.  He said, “We never want to overreact to any one month’s numbers.”  Goolsbee continued, saying, “Our absolute goal now is we want to settle at something like full employment, not blow through normal and deteriorate.”

After the close, AMC missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, on Friday, the China Passenger Car Assn. reported that TSLA sales rose 15.3% year-over-year in July. (This sounds good, but their Chinese competitors saw sales growth of 30% and China’s overall EV sales grew 31% year-on-year for the month.)  Later, Reuters reported that DNB is exploring a potential sale, including a takeover by its largest shareholder CNNE.  DNB is reportedly looking for $9 billion to include debt assumption.  Meanwhile, CVX announced plans to move its headquarters from CA to TX, citing an “oil adversarial” government in CA. 

At the same time, AI startup Character.ai announced that it signed a non-exclusive deal with GOOGL for the its search engine to use the Character.ai large language model. Separately, two of the startup’s founders (both former GOOGL employees) will return to working for GOOGL.  On Saturday, CNBC reported that after unloading stocks recently (including half of its AAPL and more of its BAC), BRKB has raised a record $277 billion in cash.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the NHTSA upgraded and expanded its investigations into almost 1 million STLA Dodge SUVs over faulty door locks and window controls that caused fires including at least one death.  Later, the FDA reported that all dosages of LLY’s weight-loss and diabetes drugs are no longer in shortage and are available nationwide.  At the same time, Reuters reported that JPM is considering filing suit against the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau for its regulation of Zelle, a peer-to-peer payment network that the seven largest banks jointly own.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board again with some massive losses in chip-making countries in follow-through from INTC’s dismal performance last week and Japan raising rates for the first time 2008 (or more directly, the upward move of the Yen).  Japan (-12.40%), South Korea (-8.77%), and Taiwan (-8.35%) were by far the biggest loses, but a couple more exchanges were down well over 4% and none of the region’s exchanges lost less than 1.5%.  In Europe, we see a similar, but not as dismal, picture taking shape at midday.  The CAC (-1.91%), DAX (-2.53%), and FTSE (-2.33%) lead the region lower even while small exchanges like Athens (-5.78%) are out front in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to our markets following the rest of the world in general (unwarranted) panic.  The DIA implies a -2.04% open, the SPY is implying a -3.04% open, and the QQQ implies a -4.47% open in what is sure to be another tech bloodbath day at least to start.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are dropping again to 3.724% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.88% to $72.14 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday include July S&P Global Services PMI and July S&P Global Composite PMI (both at 9:45 a.m.), July ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and July ISM Non-Mfg. Prices Index (all at 10 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Daly (5 p.m.).  The major earnings reports before the open include AMR, BRKB, CG, KOS, SOHU, SAH, THS, and TSN.  Then, after the close, AAN, ACM, AHR, CAR, BRBR, BMRN, BCC, BWXT, CBT, CRGY, CSX, FANG, EHC, FG, FNF, HUN, ITUB, JELD, KMPR, OKE, PLTR, O, SPG, SPR, STRL, SUM, VSTO, WMB, and YUMC report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get June Exports, June Imports, June Trade Balance, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  Then Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories and June Consumer Credit are reported.  On Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from FOX, GOLF, AHCO, ADNT, ALIT, ATI, GBTG, AU, ARMK, ATKR, AVNT, BAX, BLMN, BR, BRKR, BLDR, CAT, CLVT, CEG, DK, DUK, EPC, ENR, EXPD, FIS, FOXA, GFS, GPRE, GXO, HSIC, H, IDXX, INGR, J, JLL, KVUE. KNF, LCII, MPC, TAP, MPLX, VYX, NVT, OGN, OC, MD, SRE, SWX, STWD, SGRY, TPX, BLD, TDG, TRMB, UBER, UWMC, VVX, VMC, WLK, KLG, YUM, ZTS, AGL, ABNB, AFG, AMGN, ARKO, ASH, AIZ, CRC, CPNG, DVA, DVN, ENLC, PLUS, FTNT, GMED, GO, HY, IAC, ILMN, CART, IFF, LUMN, MASI, MOS, MRC, PR, RIVN, SVC, SKY, STE, SNEX, LRN, SU, RUN, SMCI, TOST, TSE, TRIP, VFC, and WYNN.  Then Wednesday, ADV, BCO, BAM, CRL, CCO, SID, CNDT, CRH, CVS, DBD, DDL, EMR, ENOV, GEO, GLP, GPN, GFF, HLT, HMC, IEP, KMT, LPX, LYFT, NEUE, NYT, NI, NOMD, NVO, DNOW, ODP, OGE, OSCR, PLTK, RCM, RL, REYN, ROK, RXO, SHOP, SONY, SUN, TGNA, PRKS, VSTS, VSH, DIS, ZBH, AE, ALTG, DOX, APP, ATO, BHF, CACI, CENT, CENTA, CF, CHRD, CPA, CPAY, CPAY, CAPL, CW, EFXT, ET, ENS, NVST, EQIX, FWRD, HG, HI, HUBS, ICUI, JXN, LNW, MTW, MFC, MRO, MATV, MMS, MCK, MKSI, MODV, MNST, NTR, OXY, PRI, HOOD, RGLD, SBGI, SM, STN, TALO, MODG, UGI, VSAT, WBD, WTS, WES, ZG, and Z report.  On Thursday, we hear from WMS, COLD, AVAH, AVT, AZUL, FUN, CQP, LNG, COMM, DDOG, ELAN, LLY, EDR, EPAM, FWONK, ULCC, GTN, HBI, HGV, IHRT, KELYA, KOP, LAMR, LSXMK, LSXMA, MLM, MUR, NXST, NRG, PZZA, PH, PENN, ACDC, RPRX, QSR, SBH, SEE, SN, SPB, TKO, UAA, UA, USFD, VTNR, VTRS, VST, WMG, ATSG, AKAM, AMN, BTG, CIB, CPRI, CENX, BAP, DBX, DXC, SSP, EVH, EXPE, G, GILD, IAG, NWSA, NGL, PAAS, PARAA, PARA, PBA, PBI, RXT, REZI, SOLV, TTWO, TTD, and TTEC.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, CLMT, ROAD, ERJ, EVRG, and NFE report.

So far this morning, AMR, BRKB, THS, and TSN all reported beats on both revenue and earnings. Meanwhile, SAH missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, KOS missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In Fed Rate Cut Expectation news, on Friday, following the July Payrolls and June Factory Orders data, there was a market move in the probabilities of a Fed rate cut in September.  In addition, the Fed Fund Futures bets are now expecting a larger cut.  One week prior, 88.2% of Fed Funds Rate trades implied a quarter point cut in September, 11.5% were counting on a half percent cut, and a tiny fraction felt rates would remain where they are now.  After Friday, 69.0% now expect a half percent rate cut and 31.0% expect a quarter point cut at the September meeting.  For their part, major banks also changed their forecasts with BAC, BCS, C, GS, and JPM. All are now calling for a half percent cut in September, with C telling its clients they now expect half percent cuts in both September and November. Back to the Fedwatch tool look into the outlook of Fed Funds traders and looking out to the November meeting, the betting is evenly split between expecting a three-quarters percent reduction by that meeting and a full percent cut.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the national average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage plummeted 22 basis points to 6.4%.  That was the mortgage’s lowest level since April of 2023.  Elsewhere, CMCSA announced Friday that viewership for the 2024 Olympics is up and has blown past the 2021 Tokyo Games.  CMCSA’s NBC Sports announced the five-day average viewership was 34 million viewers, up a whopping 79% from 2021.  (However, it is worth noting that Tokyo had the lowest-rated summer Olympics viewership of modern games, in part due to pandemic issues.)

With that background, it looks as if the Bears have opened up the over-reaction elevator shaft so far in the premarket. If the market closed where it sits now, it would be the biggest 3-day loss since the lows of the Trump side of the pandemic. All three major index ETFs showed huge gaps down to start the premarket. After that gap, all three have followed through with black-bodied candles that are mostly (or all) body. We are firmly in correction territory here. The short-term trend is now clearly bearish as is the mid-term. However, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts are not yet bearish. In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are now well over-stretched to to downside from their T-line (8ema) and are in need of relief. At the same time, the T2122 indicator closed just into the oversold territory, but unless there is a big rebound it will end closer to the bottom of its range. So, the Bears have used up all their slack and the market is in need of a bounce or pause. However, remember the market can remain oversold or overbought longer than any of us can remain solvent predicting turns too early. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are hugely bearish with the market leader NVDA (-12.69%) absolutely getting destroyed and having traded $2.1 billion worth of stock so far this morning. Buckle up, it’s going to be a massive Bearish and perhaps volatile day. This is where we find out who the weak hands are and just how much guts the “dip buys” have.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bears got their revenge Thursday.  SPY gapped up 0.39%, DIA gapped up 0.34%, and QQQ opened 0.15% higher on good premarket data.  At that point, all three major index ETFs saw follow through to the upside, reaching the highs of the day after 30 minutes.  However, then some bad data hit and the Bears sprung their Bull Trap as all three sold off sharply until 3 p.m.  This was only broken by a profit-taking rally the last hour.  This action gave us large, black-bodied, Bearish Engulfing candles (with wicks on both ends), that crossed below the T-line (8ema) in all three major index ETF.  This happened on heavier-than-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-3.07%) out in front of Consumer Cyclicals (-2.45%) and the rest of the sectors.  Meanwhile, the safe haven Utilities (+1.09%) was far ahead of Consumer Defensive (+0.42%) holding up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY fell 1.42%, DIA fell 1.29%, and QQQ fell 2.42%.  VXX spiked 9.21% to close at 50.51.  Meanwhile, T2122 plummeted down below the center of the mid-range at 44.94.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields dropped below the key 4% level to close at 3.979% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.32% to close at $76.87 per barrel.  So, the Bears got their revenge on Thursday.  Pretty good data in the premarket quickly gave way to fear about Friday’s data.  However, bad data at 10 a.m. led to a strong selloff until 3 p.m. across the market as sentiment turned sharply.  Still, those pesky Bulls stepped in to buy the dip at 3 p.m. and close all three major index ETFs well up off their lows.  SPY climbed back up above the potential support level from the end of June, while DIA and QQQ managed to climb back on top of potential support from May highs.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were higher than expected at 249k (compared to a forecast of 236k and the prior week’s 235k).  On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were also higher than anticipated at 1,877k (versus a 1,860k forecast and the prior week’s 1,844k value).  At the same time, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity was up sharply and was significantly better than predicted at +2.3% (compared to a +1.7% forecast and the Q1 reading of +0.4%).  Mostly, this was probably due to a much lower than expected Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Cost of +0.9% (compared to an estimated +1.8% and far down from Q1’s +3.8%).  Later, July S&P Global Mfg. PMI was down, but not a tick better than predictions at 49.6 (versus a 49.5 forecast and a June reading of 51.6). A few minutes later, June Construction Spending was slightly improved but nowhere as strong as predicted at -0.3% (compared to a +0.2% forecast and the May -0.4% value).  At the same time, July ISM Mfg. Employment Index was down to 43.4 (versus the expected 49.0 and the June 49.3 reading).  On the PMI side, the July ISM Mfg. PMI was also a bit low at 46.8 (compared to a 48.4 forecast and a June 48.5 value).  To top that off, the July ISM Mfg. Prices Index was up to 52.9 (versus a 51.9 forecast and a June 52.1 value).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $27 billion reduction for the week, down to $7.178 trillion from the prior week’s $7.205 trillion. 

After the close, ALHC, AAPL, ACA, TEAM, BZH, BKNG, BFAM, ED, DORM, GEN, GDDY, ICFI, LEG, MELI, MTD, MCHP, MSI, NXT, ZEUS, PKIUF, RGA, RMD, RNG, RKT, ROKU, SPNT, TWLO, X, and VTR all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AES, AMZN, AEE, BIO, SQ, CLX, COIN, DKNG, EOG, FND, MATX, MTZ, POST, RYAN, SNAP, and SWN missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AL, CC, DASH, LNT, OPEN, PRU, SEM, and VRTX beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, BECN, CE, CIVI, CTRA, HUBG, INTC, OTEX, OEC, TPC, TROX, and WSC missed on both the top and bottom lines. 

In stock news, on Thursday, Chinese electric vehicle makers NIO, XPEV, and LI reported July delivery figures.  NIO reported a 43.9% increase compared to July 2023, XPEV reported a fifth consecutive month of growth in deliveries, and LI set a new monthly record (which was a 49.4% increase over July 2023).  This seemed to show an improvement in the lower-priced Chinese EV market.  Later, Reuters reported that BNPQY (BNP Paribas) is in exclusive talks to buy French insurer AXA’s Investment unit for $5.50 billion.  At the same time, OXY announced it has closed the $12 billion deal to acquire CrownRock.  In the announcement, OXY said Columbia’s Ecopetrol will not buy a stake in the shale oil producer (the two were in talks for such a stake in order to appease regulators as of July according to a regulatory filing). 

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that GM is changing the performance rating system for salaried workers.  The new plan will put pressure on lower-performers to improve or leave while rewarding the top 5% with 150% bonuses.  (GM has 53,000 salaried employees.)  Meanwhile, LLY told Reuters it expects the shortage of its blockbuster (and very profitable) weight-loss drug Mounjaro to end “very soon.”  LLY CEO Ricks said “I think actually today or tomorrow we plan to exit that (shortage) process.”  After the close, INTC announced it will cut 15% of its workforce (or about 15,000 employees) and eliminate its Q4 dividend as well as reducing capital expenditures.  This came after worse than expected results (a 1% decline in revenue and a swing to a $1,61 billion loss for Q2) and a lowering of forecast.  Also after the close, WBA announced it had sold another $1.1 billion of its stake in COR.  (WBA still as a 10% stake in COR.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, CNBC reported that Elliott Mgmt. had offered a settlement (of its shareholder lawsuit) to SBUX that would expand the board and allow CEO Narasimhan to keep his job.  At the same time, the Dept. of Transportation proposed a rule barring airlines from charging additional fees to seat families with young children together.  Later, AAPL asked a US District Judge to throw out the antitrust suit brought by the Dept. of Justice and 19 states (plus the District of Columbia) AGs.  Interestingly, the AAPL motion was not on legal grounds.  Instead, AAPL argued that if the case succeeds, the court would have to redesign its iPhones and the court does not have the expertise to do so. At the same time, WFC made a filing saying it is under investigation over money laundering and facilitating violation of US sanctions by the Justice Dept.  Separately, Reuters reported WFC is also in talks with the SEC in an attempt to resolve a “cash sweep options” violation investigation.  After the close, Politico reported that the US Dept. of Justice is investigating the NVDA acquisition of AI startup Run.ai over antitrust concerns.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board as Asia reacts to unprecedented (for at least decades) changes in Japanese monetary policy (including spending $37 billion in July to prop up the Yen and caused the Yen to rise a massive 8% against the Dollar since the July 4 holiday).  The other factor was INTC’s brutal earnings, which was read-through to Japanese, Taiwanese, and South Korean chipmakers.  As a result, Japan (-5.81%), Taiwan (-4.43%), and South Korea (-3.65%) led the region lower Friday.  In Europe, we see the same picture (with far less magnitude) taking shape at midday.  All 15 bourses are in the red as the DAX (-1.61%), CAC (-0.81%), and FTSE (-0.40%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., the Bears are looking to follow up Thursday’s drubbing with a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.84% open, the SPY is implying a -1.04% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.58% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.939% and Oil (WTI) is flat at $76.37 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, and the July Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 a.m.), and Jun Factory Orders (10 a.m.).  The major earnings reports before the open include ARCB, ARES, ABG, BSAC, BERY, BTSG, BEPC, BEP, CBOE, GTLS, CVX, CHD, CNK, ENB, ESAB, XOM, FLR, FYBR, IMO, LIN, LYB, MGA, NMRK, OMI, PRGO, PAA, PAGP, PPL, TIXT, and USM.  Then, after the close, AMC reports.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday the Bank of England cut rates a quarter percent from a 16-year high down to 5%.  Meanwhile, the EPA issued an emergency waiver lasting until August 20 for refineries located in MI, WI, IN, and IL.  The waiver suspends anti-smog rules that required refineries to make more difficult (and expensive) “summer blend” gasoline rather than the easier, cheaper, “winter blend.” This came after storm damage (power outages) shut down refineries in that region on July 15, which will not be able to restart until mid-August.  Elsewhere, Freddie Mac announced that the national average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to the lowest level since February at 6.73% this week.

In geopolitical news, Russia has sent units of their Wagner PMC to Venezuela to help strongman Maduro survive massive national protests, by helping crush demonstrators, following Maduro’s theft of the country’s election last Sunday.  Maduro himself has turned to his hand-picked Venezuelan Supreme Court for the moral authority to persuade the military to put down the protests against his election theft. Elsewhere, Hezbollah confirmed the death of its most senior military commander.  (Israel had claimed they had killed him Wednesday, but it took a day to confirm due to the amount of wreckage of five collapsed floors of the building Israeli missile struck in Beirut.)  In related news, Hamas political leader (and chief negotiator) Haniyeh was buried in Qatar. At the same time, Iran vowed revenge for the missile strike on its soil which killed him. Finally, the massive prisoner swap between Russia (and their corrupt puppet courts) and the West took place. The Biden Administration, Germany, Poland, and Slovenia had been working together to negotiate the historic deal for months. 24 detainees from seven countries were exchanged in Turkey, including 15 released by Russia, 1 released by Belarus (read Russia), and 8 convicts exchanged to Russia for those people.

So far this morning, ASIX, CHD, CRARY, ESAB, XOM, LYB, TIGO, and OMI all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BERY, FLR, LIN, PRGO, and TU missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ARCB, BTSG, BEP, ENB, and FYBR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ABG, GTLS, CVX, MGA, and TIXT missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks as if the Bears are in control this morning with all three major index ETFs gapping down to start the premarket. After that cap, all three have followed through with black-bodied candles that are mostly body. It is worth noting that all three also gapped down through their T-line (8ema). In short, the awful INTC report after yesterday’s close has global markets scared. Still, SPY (about 5% below) and DIA (about 3.5% below) remain not terribly far below their all-time highs. However, QQQ is now in correction territory, more than 11% below its own all-time high. So, on the big moves from Thursday and premarket, the short-term trend is now clearly bearish as is the mid-term. The longer-term remains bullish. In terms of extension, QQQ is getting stretched below its T-line (8ema) but the other two remain within a reasonable distance below. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the bottom half of its mid-range and likely headed lower on the now expected gap lower at the open. So, there is still room to run either direction, but the Bears have momentum off those INTC earnings and news. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red, led by INTC’s massive 22.38% selloff. AMD (+0.71%) is the only one in the green because INTC’s report showed that it was eating Intel’s lunch. However, NVDA (-4.07%) is reacting in sympathy to INTC and has traded more than 3.5 times as much dollar-volume than any other stock in premarket. The bottom line is beware of the Bear, watch for July Payrolls volatility, and prepare your account for the weekend.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Broader markets gapped higher to start the day Wednesday while DIA diverged.  SPY gapped up 1.31%, DIA opened just 0.03% higher, gapped up a whopping 2.37%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs rallied for an hour.  From that point QQQ and SPY traded sideways and drifted back to their opening level by 1:30 p.m.  Meanwhile, DIA continued its post-open rally until 1:30 p.m.  From there, all three rallied until 3 p.m. when they rode a rollercoaster down and back up and then back down during the last hour as profit-taking kicked in. This action gave us gap-up, white-bodied Spinning Top candles in all three of those ETFs.  SPY and DIA had most of their wicks on top while QQQ had more balanced wicks and larger body.  SPY and QQQ also rejoined DIA above their respective T-lines (8ema).  This all happened on average volume in SPY and QQQ as well as well above-average volume in the DIA.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+2.93%) way out in front of Basic Materials (+1.58%) and the rest of the sectors.  Meanwhile, it was Consumer Defensive (-0.09%) that was the only sector in the red (barely).  At the same time, SPY gained 1.63%, DIA gained 0.27%, and QQQ gained 2.96%.  VXX fell 2.36% to close at 46.25.  Meanwhile, T2122 gained a fraction, remaining at the very bottom of the overbought area at 80.54.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields plummeted to 4.031% and Oil (WTI) spiked 5.02% to close at $78.47 per barrel.  So, the Bears got handed the heads at the open and in the first-hour follow-through.  Then the pre and during FOMC rally kicked them again.  However, the profit-taking eased their pain a bit at the end of the day.  Again, it was AI that led the day after AMD’s (+4.36%) great earnings Tuesday night and then the Reuter’s report that could stoke sales for NVDA (+12.81%) as the US supposedly will allow allies to ship chip-making equipment to China.  In short, it was a turn-around day for SPY and QQQ while DIA continues its rally, coming within less than half a percent of its all-time high. (It is also worth noting that NVDA traded more than three times as much dollar volume than the next closest ticker in the market Wednesday.)

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included the July ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which showed a much smaller increase than expected at +122k (compared to a forecasted +147k and June’s +155k).  Later, the Q2 Employment Cost Index was better than anticipated at +0.9% (versus a +1.0% forecast and down significantly from the Q1 +1.2% number).  Then, the July Chicago PMI was down but still a bit better than predicted at 45.3 (compared to a 44.8 forecast and the June 47.4 reading).  Moments later, the June Pending Home Sales were much, much stronger than expected at +4.8% (versus a +1.4% forecast and May’s -1.9% value).  On the oil front, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a bigger drawdown that predicted at -3.436 million barrels (compared to a -1.600-million-barrel estimate and the prior week’s -3.741-million-barrel drawdown.  Later, as expected, the FOMC held rates steady.

In Fed speak news, at his FOMC Meeting press conference, Fed Chair Powell said that recent inflation data was giving the committee greater confidence that inflation is moving back toward the 2% target.  Powell said, “There has been some further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective.”  He continued by saying there was a growing POSSIBILITY of a rate cut in September, saying, “there is a growing sense of confidence that you could move at the next meeting” (as long as inflation data reaffirms the current softening trend).  When pressed for a rate cut commitment by reporters, Powell replied, “We have made no decisions on future meetings.”

After the close, ACHC, AFL, AEM, ALGT, ALL, ANSS, APA, ARM, AVB, CHRW, CVNA, COKE, CTSH, COMP, CTVA, CACC, EBAY, EXAS, FMC, GNW, GRBK, IR, JAZZ, KGC, LRCX, LUNMF, META, MGM, MAA, NE, CNXN, PPC, QGEN, QCOM, QDEL, RRX, RUSHA, RHP, TTEK, VICI, and WDC all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AGI, BALY, BBSI, BV, CAKE, CMPR, CODI, CRBG, DLX, ES, GLF, GT, THG, HLF, HST, IEX, KD, MKL, MET, MUSA, NFG, PGRE, PK, PTC, PTVE, SON, SSRM, and TDOC missed on revenue while beating earnings.  On the side, ALB, AWK, ETSY, EXPI, SCI, and TS beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, AIG, AR, CWH, EG, VAC, MYRG, SUI, TWI, and RIG missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Wednesday, JBLU announced it has agreed to buy “sustainable aviation fuel” from VLO for use on NY flights. Later, Bloomberg reported that DIA is planning to eliminate around 140 jobs from its television unit (about 2% of that staff). It also plans to cut 13% of the NatGeo staff (number unknown).  At the same time, Reuters reported that C has repeatedly breached a Fed rule (regulations W) that limits intercompany transactions, leading to errors in internal liquidity reporting.  (No formal investigation by the Fed has been announced yet.)  Later, ALB (the world’s largest lithium producer) announced another round of cost-cutting, citing tumbling lithium prices globally.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, INTC won the London case in which its private rival R2 had sought an injunction preventing the sale of INTC chips due to patent infringement.  (A similar case is pending in the US.)  At the same time, MO said it had sent data to the FDA on the growth of illegal “nicotine pouches” telling the agency this is the early stage of a massive black market for vape products in the US.  (MO and BTI say they have lost substantial US sales to illegal, unapproved nicotine products.)  Later, DAL put a number on its losses from the CRWD-caused IT outage that caused it to cancel thousands of flights.  DAL said it lost $500 million after announcing Tuesday it would take legal action against CRWD and MSFT over the disaster. Separately, CRWD shareholders filed suit against the company related to the outage, alleging the company defrauded them by concealing the inadequate state of its software quality system. 

Elsewhere, UBS filed suit against BAC for $200 million over allegations stemming from the 2008 global financial crisis. The suit alleges that BAC refused to cover the cost of risky mortgages issued prior to the crisis, which Countrywide had sold as bundles and had agreed to indemnify against being poorly written or fraudulent.  BAC later acquired Countrywide.  Later, Russia fined GOOGL $58k for failing to restore pro-Russia disinformation YouTube channels that GOOGL had banned.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced that HYMTF (Hyundai) will recall 49k vehicles over unintentional airbag deactivation or deployment.  Later, Reuters reported that a TSLA vehicle that hit and killed a Seattle motorcyclist was in “Full Self-Driving” mode.  The NHTSA acknowledged the incident and said it already had an investigation underway related to similar cases.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with half of the 12 exchanges in the red and half in the green.  Japan (-2.49%) and Singapore (-1.04%) paced the losses while Taiwan (+1.99%) and New Zealand (+0.67%) led the gainers.  In Europe, we see a similar mixed picture at midday with eight of the 15 bourses in the red while seven are showing green.  The CAC (-0.83%), DAX (-0.68%), and FTSE (+0.29%) lead the region on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward modest follow-through on Wednesday’s gains.  The DIA implies a flat +0.05% open, the SPY is implying a +0.44% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.53% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 4.063% and Oil (WTI) is up almost a percent to $78.63 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, and Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 a.m.), July S&P Global Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), June Construction Spending, July ISM Mfg. Employment, July ISM Mfg. PMI, and July ISM Mfg. Prices (all at 10 a.m.) and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports before the open include ADT, AER, APD, ALE, ATUS, AME, BUD, HOUS, APG, APO, APTV, MT, ARW, AXTA, BALL, BHC, BCE, BDX, BDC, BIIB, OWL, CNQ, CVE, CI, CIGI, COP, CROX, CMI, D, LPG, DRVN, DNB, ETN, ETR, NVRI, EXC, RACE, AG, FTDR, GIL, HSY, HTZ, DINO, HII, NSIT, NSP, IBP, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JHG, K, KIM, KEX, KTB, LH, LAUR, LTH, LNC, LAD, MIDD, NBIX, PATK, PBF, BTU, PNW, PWR, REGN, RBLX, SABR, SNDR, SHEL, SIRI, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TRI, TM, TAC, UPBD, VAL, GWW, W, WEN, WCC, XEL, and XPO. Then, after the close, AES, AL, ALHC, LNT, AMZN, AEE, AAPL, ACA, TEAM, BECN, BZH, BIO, SQ, BKNG, BFAM, CE, CGAU, CC, CIVI, CLX, COIN, ED, CTRA, DASH, DORM, DKNG, EOG, ERO, FND, GEN, GDDY, HUBG, ICFI, INTC, LEG, MTZ, MATX, MELI, MTD, MCHP, MSI, NXT, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, POST, PRU, RGA, RMD, RNG, RKT, ROKU, RYAN, SEM, SNAP, SWN, TROX, TPC, TWLO, X, VTR, VRTX, and WSC report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, July Unemployment Rate, and Jun Factory Orders are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, ARCB, ARES, ABG, BSAC, BERY, BTSG, BEPC, BEP, CBOE, GTLS, CVX, CHD, CNK, ENB, ESAB, XOM, FLR, FYBR, IMO, LIN, LYB, MGA, NMRK, OMI, PRGO, PAA, PAGP, PPL, TIXT, USM, and AMC report.

So far this morning, AER, ABEV, BUD, AXTA, BIIB, BIP. CNQ, CI, CROX, DLAKY, ETN, ETR, NVRI, EXC, GCI, GEL, GIL, GVA, DINO, HII, ING, IRM, KIM, KTB, LH, LAUR, LTH, LNC, LAD, REGN, SCGLY, STGW, SCMWY, TRP, TRI, TIPT, TM, TRN, and UPBD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, APD, ALE, AME, APTV, BALL, BDX, LPG, ITT, MIDD, SHEL, TFX, W, and XPO all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, APO, CVE, NBIX, PBF, PWR, and VNT beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ADT, ATUS, MT, BCE, COP, HSY, SAVE, WEN, WCC, and XEL missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, Reuters reported that US restrictions on the export of chipmaking equipment to China will exempt some US allies.  However, later, Bloomberg reported that the US is considering new restrictions on AI memory chip sales to China.  (MU is the main US supplier of such chips.)  Meanwhile, billionaire Bill Ackman canceled the IPO of his Pershing Square US Closed-end fund (scheduled for Tuesday) when it became clear he would not raise nearly as much money as he had hoped. 

In geopolitical news, Israel escalated and expanded its conflicts by killing the Hamas political leader (and main negotiator with Israel related to a cease fire and release of hostages) by missile strike in Iran.  This raises fears of a broader regional conflict.  It also helps PM Netanyahu keep the conflicts going, which ensures his continuing as PM.  Elsewhere, Ukraine received the first group of F-16 fighter-bombers.  These are not coming directly from the US (although LMT and GD will get significant parts and maintenance supply contracts from this transfer).  However, the US will also sell F-35s (made by LMT and sub-contractor NOC) to back-fill the jets sent to Ukraine.

With that background, it looks as if the market is indecisively looking to follow-through on Wednesday’s gains. All three major index ETFs are higher. SPY and QQQ both gapped higher, traded back down, then reversed and are near the highs of the premarket at the moment. This leaves them with a lot of wick and white-bodied Hammer type candles. Meanwhile, DIA gapped down, immediately reverses and has printed a white-bodied candle with no wick, sitting at early session highs. So, the Bulls are in control in the premarket, they just did it different ways between the narrower DIA and broader SPY and QQQ ETFs. All three major index ETFs are above their T-line (8ema) and pushing higher from the previous session. This means the short-term, mid-term, and longer-term, the trends are all bullish and within a few percent of their all-time highs. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too stretched from their T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is right at the bottom edge of its overbought area this morning. So, there is still room to run either direction, but it would seem like again the Bears have a little more slack with which to work. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the green so far in the premarket as META (+8.12%) is the leader followed by NVDA (+2.93%) which brings heavy volume in addition to its price move. TSLA (-0.55%) is by far the laggard of the 10. So, the wind seems behind those tech big dogs this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday brought a Bull trap at the open.  SPY gapped up 0.27%, DIA opened 0.07% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.44%.  However, as mentioned, this was a Bull Trap as all three major index ETFs sold off.  QQQ sold off most sharply, recrossing its opening gap by 10 a.m. and trading sharply lower until 1 p.m. Meanwhile, DIA diverged by following through until 10 a.m. and then sold off the slowest of the three, not really going negative, but reaching the lows at 1 p.m. At the same time, SPY was somewhere between QQQ and DIA, recrossing its opening gap by 10:30 a.m. and reaching the lows by 1 p.m.  From there, all three major index ETFs put in a modest rally in waves. This action gave us a black-bodied candle with modest upper wick and large lower wick in the SPY.  (SPY also retested and failed its T-line (8ema) during the day.  In the DIA, we saw a white-bodied Spinning Top type candle with the larger part of the wick at the top.  Finally, QQQ gave us a large black-bodied candle with a larger lower wick.  This happened on a bit below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, the 10 sectors were evenly split with Financial Services (+0.86%) and Energy (+0.84%) leading the gainers. Meanwhile, Technology (-1.43%) was the biggest mover and way out in front leading the losing sectors lower.  At the same time, SPY fell 0.51%, DIA gained 0.48%, and QQQ dropped 1.37%.  VXX jumped 3.18% to close at 47.37.  Meanwhile, T2122 climbed into the very bottom of the overbought area at 80.39.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields dropped to close at 4.14% and Oil (WTI) dropped another 0.71% to close at $75.28 per barrel.  So, we now find ourselves with SPY trying to hold on to the support of the June lows (and its 50sma) while QQQ being brutalized (both now in Dreaded h patterns).  However, DIA didn’t seem to get the message and remains in a short-term uptrend.  (QQQ is down more than 9% from its all-time, and recent, high while SPY is down just under 4% from its all-time high, and DIA is 1.5% from its own.)  Despite these divergences, the intraday volatility (whipsaw) remains rough in all three.

The major economic news scheduled Tuesday included July Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, which came in up and a touch stronger than expected at 100.3 (versus a forecast of 99.7 and the June reading or 97.8).  At the same time, the June JOLTs Job Openings were down, but still higher than predicted at 8.184 million (compared to a forecast of 8.020 million and the May value of 8.230 million).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a larger drawdown at 4.495 million barrels (versus the prior week’s -3.900-million-barrel drawdown).

After the close, AMD, ACGL, ANET, EQH, AXS, AX, BXP, CP, EA, EXR, FSLR, HLI, LFUS, MTCH, MSFT, MOD, NOG, PINS, QRVO, SWKS, SYK, UMBF, UNM, and WU all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, FE, LSTR, LYV, MCY, MDLZ, MEOH, NGD, OI, OVV, PSA, QUAD, SBUX, and TEX missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, CZR, HA, SW, TX, and WERN missed on both the top and bottom lines. (After-hours trading was disappointed in MSFT cloud services despite beats on both lines. However, traders liked AMD after-hours and their raise of guidance on AI and otherwise strong chip demand.)

In stock news, on Tuesday, the Wall Steet Journal reported on the results of its own investigation of TSLA’s “Autopilot” system. The article highlighted longstanding “issues” after analyzing 200 TSLA Autopilot crashes. Later, Reuters reported the BRKB has sold more than $3 billion worth of BAC shares this month.  (This report came after the latest tranche of 18.4 million shares between July 25 and July 29.)  At the same time, SAVE (a no-frills, low-cost airline) announced plans to move into the higher-margin business class market in Europe.  Later, SLTA announced it is offering a new round of voluntary buyouts to US salaried workers.  (The company made the same offer twice in 2023.) 

Elsewhere, CNP (which has been in the crosshairs due to slow recovery of electric services in Houston after Hurricane Beryl) said that it now expects up to $1.3 billion in “restoration costs” from the storm.  Later, Reuters reported exclusively that BLK is in talks to acquire ROIC.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported INTC is now planning to cut thousands of jobs as part of a cost-cutting program.  (The report said the cuts could be announced this week.)  After the close, MSFT said it now expects an outage in its Azure cloud service and Office365 to be resolved by the end of the night.  MSFT said the outage, which began early Tuesday, was caused by a surge in usage.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, META agreed to pay $1.4 billion to the state of TX to settle the state’s lawsuit accusing the company of illegally using its facial-recognition technology to collect user biometric data.  Separately, META agreed to pay $650 million to settle a class-action biometric data privacy lawsuit in IL.  Later, the NHTSA announced TSLA will recall 1.85 million 2021 to 2024 vehicles related to a software failure to detect an unlatched hood.  At the same time, the Consumer Product Safety Administration issued a directive stating that AMZN is responsible for the sale of any hazardous products by third-parties through their platform.  (AMZN said it would appeal the ruling.  Meanwhile, the FDA issued a similar directive to both AMZN and WMT related to products like chemical peels and other dangerous chemicals sold by third-parties through the company website. 

Elsewhere, AMP filed suit against LPLA alleging the latter systematically harvested and misused confidential client information in violation of multiple securities laws.  Later, the US Dept. of Justice filed a civil suit against NSC alleging the company is delaying passenger trains on the NYC to New Orleans route in violation of federal law.  At the same time, a VA Appeals Court overturned a $2 billion jury verdict against PEGA (payable to APPN) for trade secret theft.  The judge said the original court have committed a series of errors.  (APPN said it would appeal the loss.)  Later, a lawsuit was filed against WFC, alleging the company mismanaged the health insurance plan of tens of thousands of employees, causing them to overpay for prescription drugs.  (The suit claims examples where the plan caused 400% overcharges to employees on some drugs.)  After the close, Reuters reported that EADSY (Airbus) faces a criminal probe in the UK over potential violations of export control laws.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board.  Only Taiwan (-0.11%) was in the red while Shenzhen (+3.37%), Shanghai (+2.06%), and Hong Kong (+2.01%) led the region higher.  (This came as the Bank of Japan raised interest rates a quarter percent and there was a Reuters report that the US will exempt its allies from restrictions against selling chipmaking equipment to China…which is why China stocks soared.)  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.27%), DAX (+0.44%, lagging behind due to Tuesday’s report of contracting German GDP), and FTSE (+1.30%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a divergent green start to the day.  The DIA implies a flat +0.09% open, the SPY is implying a +0.94% gap higher, and the QQQ implies a 1.56% gap higher to open trading.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 4.133% and Oil (WTI) is spiking, up 3.31% to $77.19 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes July ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 a.m.), Q2 Employment Cost Index (8:30 a.m.), July Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.), June Pending Home Sales (10 a.m.), Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), Fed Interest Rate decision and the FOMC Statement (both at 2 p.m.), and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports before the open include MO, ADP, AN, BBVA, BLCO, BA, BWA, BG, CDW, COR, GIB, CHEF, CLH, CNH, DAN, XRAY, DD, ENTG, FTS, GRMN, GTES, GEHC, GNRC, GGB, GSK, HES, HUM, HCM, JCI, KKR, KHC, LECO, MAR, MA, EDU, NCLH, OMF, OPCH, OSK, PSN, PAG, PNM, RITM, SMG, SLGN, SITE, SCL, SHOO, TMUS, TEF, TEVA, TKR, TT, TTMI, ULS, UMC, UTHR, VRSK, WAT, and WEC.  Then, after the close, ACHC, AFL, AEM, AGI, ALB, ALGT, ALL, AIG, AWK, ANSS, AR, APA, ARM, AVB, BALY, BBSI, BV, CHRW, CWH, CVNA, CAKE, CMPR, CTSH, CODI,  COMP, CRBG, CTVA, DLX, EBAY, ETSY, EG, ES, EXAS, EXPI, FMC, GLF, GT, THG, HLF, HST, IEX, IR, JAZZ, KGC, KD, LRCX, MKL, VAC, META, MET, MGM, MAA, MUSA, MYRG, NFG, NE, PTVE, PGRE, PK, CNXN, PTC, QGEN, QCOM, QDEL, RRX, RUSHA, RHP, SCI, SON, SSRM, SUI, TDOC, TS, TTEK, TWI, RIG, VICI, and WDC report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Costs, July S&P Global Mfg. PMI, June Construction Spending, July ISM Mfg. Employment, July ISM Mfg. PMI, and July ISM Mfg. Prices.  Finally, on Friday, July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, July Unemployment Rate, and Jun Factory Orders are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from ADT, AER, APD, ALE, ATUS, AME, BUD, HOUS, APG, APO, APTV, MT, ARW, AXTA, BALL, BHC, BCE, BDX, BDC, BIIB, OWL, CNQ, CVE, CI, CIGI, COP, CROX, CMI, D, LPG, DRVN, DNB, ETN, ETR, NVRI, EXC, RACE, AG, FTDR, GIL, HSY, HTZ, DINO, HII, NSIT, NSP, IBP, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JHG, K, KIM, KEX, KTB, LH, LAUR, LTH, LNC, LAD, MIDD, NBIX, PATK, PBF, BTU, PNW, PWR, REGN, RBLX, SABR, SNDR, SHEL, SIRI, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TRI, TM, TAC, UPBD, VAL, GWW, W, WEN, WCC, XEL, XPO, AES, AL, ALHC, LNT, AMZN, AEE, AAPL, ACA, TEAM, BECN, BZH, BIO, SQ, BKNG, BFAM, CE, CGAU, CC, CIVI, CLX, COIN, ED, CTRA, DASH, DORM, DKNG, EOG, ERO, FND, GEN, GDDY, HUBG, ICFI, INTC, LEG, MTZ, MATX, MELI, MTD, MCHP, MSI, NXT, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, POST, PRU, RGA, RMD, RNG, RKT, ROKU, RYAN, SEM, SNAP, SWN, TROX, TPC, TWLO, X, VTR, VRTX, and WSC.  Finally, on Friday, ARCB, ARES, ABG, BSAC, BERY, BTSG, BEPC, BEP, CBOE, GTLS, CVX, CHD, CNK, ENB, ESAB, XOM, FLR, FYBR, IMO, LIN, LYB, MGA, NMRK, OMI, PRGO, PAA, PAGP, PPL, TIXT, USM, and AMC report.

So far this morning, ADP, BLCO, COR, CHEF, CNH, DAN, DD, ENTG, GRMN, GSK, HSBC, HUM, KKR, OMF, OPCH, OSK, PSN, RITM, SMG, SITE, SHOO, TMUS, TEF, TKR, TT, ULS, UMC, and WAT all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BBVA, BWA, GIB, FTS, GEHC, GNRC, JCI, MAR, PAG, PNM, SLGN, VRSK, and WEC reported missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, MO, CCJ, and UTHR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, AN, BG, CDW, XRAY, EDU, and SCL missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday evening Republican members of the Judiciary Committee demanded that more than 130 investors explain how they justify their environmental, social, and governance guidelines used to guide their investments.  The GOP said those investing guidelines may be found to violate antitrust laws, but in reality, Republicans are looking to stoke the issue in support of the fossil fuel industries (coal, oil, and gas).  Meanwhile, the US Trade Representative said Tuesday that new tariffs on an array of Chinese imports will be delayed for at least two weeks.  This comes as the USTR reviews 1,100 comments (appeals) related to specific products.  (The tariffs were scheduled to take effect on August 1.)  Elsewhere, Eurozone GDP rose 0.3% in Q2, sustain the same pace as it had in Q1.  France and Spain had better than expected results while Germany showed a 0.1% contraction in the quarter.

In geopolitical news, Israel escalated its conflict with Hezbollah (not Gaza) by striking Beirut, Lebanon with a missile in what it said was aimed at killing a senior leader of the group.  Israel said the strike was in response to the recent rocket attack that hit the occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 children. The Israeli IDF said the strike had killed a senior Hezbollah military commander, but some news outlets disputed that claim.  Regardless, five stories of the building struck were collapsed.  Casualties are not yet known.  (Fears are that Israeli PM Netanyahu is attempting to escalate their conflicts in an effort to retain his position as head of a War Cabinet.  Obviously, every escalation has an impact on global oil markets and shipping via the Suez Canal and Red Sea.)  Elsewhere, Venezuela’s election commission announced vote totals from Sunday’s Presidential election that showed 109% of citizens had voted.  This came as protests have escalated across that country where strongman Maduro clearly stole the election.  So far, some 750 arrests, (including leading opposition figures) and several deaths have been reported. However, in other places, police fled rather than attack protesters and crowds have even taken some military outposts.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are in control in the premarket. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the early session. However, DIA has sold back down toward Tuesday’s close. Meanwhile, SPY is following through with a large white-bodied candle while QQQ is printing an indecisive Doji after the gap to start the premarket. DIA remains above its T-line (8ema) while SPY is crossing above in the early session. QQQ remains below its T-line but is getting closer to a retest from below. The very short-term trend is now Bullish. Meanwhile, in the mid-term and longer-term, there is no way to look at markets except to say they remain bullish and still not all that far from their all-time highs. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too stretched from their T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is right at the edge of its overbought area this morning. So, there is still room to run either direction, but it would seem like again the Bears have a little more slack with which to work. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green so far in the premarket as AMD (+8.39%) is the leader on its strong report and guidance while MSFT (-3.36%) is by far the laggard as it is punished for a strong report but weaker than expected cloud sales. As usual, NVDA (+6.79%) is well out in front of the others in terms of dollar volume traded and is spiking in sympathy with direct competitor AMD’s good report.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped higher on Monday, following the rest of the globe higher early.  SPY gapped up 0.30%, DIA opened 0.23% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.62%.  From there all three major index ETFs rode a roller-coaster all day, recrossing the morning gap to reach the lows at 11:30 a.m., climbing back to the early highs about 12:30 p.m., and then selling off again, only to begin rebounding at about 2:30 p.m.  This action gave us indecisive candles in all three.  The SPY gave us a black-bodied Spinning Top type candle that did not quite retest its T-line (8ema) from below.  At the same time, DIA printed a black-bodied Hanging Man type candle that did not quite retest its T-line from above and QQQ printed a black-bodied Spinning Top candle.  This happened on well below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-0.87%) out front leading the market lower.  On the other side, Consumer Cyclical (+0.65%) held up significantly better than the other sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.06%, DIA fell 0.13%, and QQQ gained 0.20%.  VXX fell 1.47% to close at 46.09.  Meanwhile, T2122 dropped out of its overbought territory to close at the top of its mid-range at 78.40.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields dropped to close at 416.8% and Oil (WTI) dropped another 1.74% to close at $75.83 per barrel.  So, we saw a gap higher in all three major index ETFs, followed by a volatile day.  The whipsaw was worse in the QQQ and of a lower magnitude in the DIA with SPY in between the other two.

There was no major economic news scheduled for Monday and, obviously, FOMC members could not speak with their July meeting starting Tuesday. 

After the close, AMKR, CNO, CR, CVI, ESI, EQR, FFIV, FLS, HOLX, NEU, SFM, and VIV all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CWK, ST, SBAC, WELL, and WWD missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, SYM beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, CHK and SANM missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Monday, the CEO of L (James Tisch) announced he will step down on December 31, with his son Benjamin slated to take over as his successor.  At the same time, the Financial Times reported that Swiss pharma company Roche is now accelerating its development of a weight-loss drug after promising data from its early-stage trials.  Roche is reportedly now hoping to be available by 2028, two years earlier than previously planned.  (This would be a direct competitor to NVO’s Wegovy and LLY’s Zepbound weight-loss drugs.)  Later, OXY announced it will sell its Delaware Basis assets (located in TX and NM) to PR for about $818 million.  At the same time, AAPL reached its first labor agreement, striking a tentative deal with retail workers at its Towson, MD store.  (The union members still need to ratify the contract.)

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that EADSY (Airbus) is restructuring its Space Systems unit without waiting on the outcome of consolidation talks with Italy-based DRS and French THLLY (Thales).  At the same time, ESGR announced it had agreed to a $5.1 billion buyout (taking it private) which amounts to $338 per share.  Later, MCD reported its first decline in sales in 13 quarters.  At the same time, Reuters reported that SJM is now exploring the sale of its Voortman Bakery brand for more than $350 million.  After the close, RSNT announced it agreed to buy rival FBMS in an all-stock deal worth $1.2 billion.  (FBMS owners will receive 1 share of RNST for each share of FBMS held.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, Reuters reported that HPE will get unconditional EU antitrust approval for its $14 billion acquisition of JNPR.  (The deal was originally announced in January.)  The decision is scheduled to be announced on August 1.  Later, a US District Judge ruled that WFC must face a lawsuit alleging the company defrauded shareholders by proclaiming their commitment to hiring diversity at the same time it was conducting “sham job interviews” of women and non-white applicants (with no intention of hiring them).  Later, the FCC announced that CHTR will a pay a $15 million civil penalty to resolve an investigation into the company’s non-compliance with network and 911 outage rules.  After the close, DAL announced it had hired a law firm and will seek compensations from MSFT and CRWD related to the recent global outage.  (No details were provided, but DAL canceled many thousands of flights due to its inability to recover from the IT outage.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side. Hong Kong (-1.37%) paced the losses while New Zealand (+0.63%) led the gainers.  In Europe, we see the opposite picture taking shape with four red bourses and 11 in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.45%), DAX (+0.45%), and FTSE (-0.20%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the morning.  The DIA implies a flat +0.02% open, the SPY is implying a +0.17% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.20% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 4.168% and Oil (WTI) is off slightly to $75.73 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes the July Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and June JOLTs Job Openings (both at 10 a.m.) as well as API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports before the open include AGCO, AEP, AMT, ADM, ARCC, BGC, BP, CNP, GLW, EXP, ECL, EPD, IT, GPK, HWM, HUBB, ITW, INCY, IGT, JBLU, LDOS, DRS, LGIH, MHO, MRK, ONEW, PYPL, PFE, PSX, PHIN, PG, PEG, SPGI, SOFI, SWK, SYY, UFPI, WSO, XYL, and ZBRA.  Then, after the close, AMD, ACGL, ANET, EQH, AXS, BXP, CZR, CP, EA, EXR, FSLR, FE, HA, HLI, LSTR, LFUS, LYV, MTCH, MCY, MEOH, MSFT, MOD, MDLZ, NGD, NOG, OI, OVV, PINS, PSA, QRVO, QUAD, SWKS, SBUX, SYK, TEX, TX, UNM, WERN, and WU report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, July ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Q2 Employment Cost Index, July Chicago PMI, June Pending Home Sales, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Interest Rate decision, the FOMC Statement, and Fed Chair Press Conference are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Costs, July S&P Global Mfg. PMI, June Construction Spending, July ISM Mfg. Employment, July ISM Mfg. PMI, and July ISM Mfg. Prices.  Finally, on Friday, July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, July Unemployment Rate, and Jun Factory Orders are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, MO, ADP, AN, BBVA, BLCO, BA, BWA, BG, CDW, COR, GIB, CHEF, CLH, CNH, DAN, XRAY, DD, ENTG, FTS, GRMN, GTES, GEHC, GNRC, GGB, GSK, HES, HUM, HCM, JCI, KKR, KHC, LECO, MAR, MA, EDU, NCLH, OMF, OPCH, OSK, PSN, PAG, PNM, RITM, SMG, SLGN, SITE, SCL, SHOO, TMUS, TEF, TEVA, TKR, TT, TTMI, ULS, UMC, UTHR, VRSK, WAT, WEC, ACHC, AFL, AEM, AGI, ALB, ALGT, ALL, AIG, AWK, ANSS, AR, APA, ARM, AVB, BALY, BBSI, BV, CHRW, CWH, CVNA, CAKE, CMPR, CTSH, CODI,  COMP, CRBG, CTVA, DLX, EBAY, ETSY, EG, ES, EXAS, EXPI, FMC, GLF, GT, THG, HLF, HST, IEX, IR, JAZZ, KGC, KD, LRCX, MKL, VAC, META, MET, MGM, MAA, MUSA, MYRG, NFG, NE, PTVE, PGRE, PK, CNXN, PTC, QGEN, QCOM, QDEL, RRX, RUSHA, RHP, SCI, SON, SSRM, SUI, TDOC, TS, TTEK, TWI, RIG, VICI, and WDC report.  On Thursday, we hear from ADT, AER, APD, ALE, ATUS, AME, BUD, HOUS, APG, APO, APTV, MT, ARW, AXTA, BALL, BHC, BCE, BDX, BDC, BIIB, OWL, CNQ, CVE, CI, CIGI, COP, CROX, CMI, D, LPG, DRVN, DNB, ETN, ETR, NVRI, EXC, RACE, AG, FTDR, GIL, HSY, HTZ, DINO, HII, NSIT, NSP, IBP, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JHG, K, KIM, KEX, KTB, LH, LAUR, LTH, LNC, LAD, MIDD, NBIX, PATK, PBF, BTU, PNW, PWR, REGN, RBLX, SABR, SNDR, SHEL, SIRI, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TRI, TM, TAC, UPBD, VAL, GWW, W, WEN, WCC, XEL, XPO, AES, AL, ALHC, LNT, AMZN, AEE, AAPL, ACA, TEAM, BECN, BZH, BIO, SQ, BKNG, BFAM, CE, CGAU, CC, CIVI, CLX, COIN, ED, CTRA, DASH, DORM, DKNG, EOG, ERO, FND, GEN, GDDY, HUBG, ICFI, INTC, LEG, MTZ, MATX, MELI, MTD, MCHP, MSI, NXT, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, POST, PRU, RGA, RMD, RNG, RKT, ROKU, RYAN, SEM, SNAP, SWN, TROX, TPC, TWLO, X, VTR, VRTX, and WSC.  Finally, on Friday, ARCB, ARES, ABG, BSAC, BERY, BTSG, BEPC, BEP, CBOE, GTLS, CVX, CHD, CNK, ENB, ESAB, XOM, FLR, FYBR, IMO, LIN, LYB, MGA, NMRK, OMI, PRGO, PAA, PAGP, PPL, TIXT, USM, and AMC report.

So far this morning, AEP, AMT, ARCC, CNP, IT, HWM, JBLU, LDOS, LGIH, MRK, NMR, PYPL, PFE, PSX, SOFI, SWK, XYL, and ZBRA all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BP, EXP, GPK, IGT, and PG missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  However, ADM and EDP missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, in Congress, Democratic Senator Warner (VA) introduced a bill to reform the Fed Discount Window, requiring all but the smallest banks to be prepared (pre-qualified and registered) to borrow from the Fed in the event of a liquidity problem.  This is contrary to the current situation where banks have soften felt is was a stigma and comes as the FOMC has been working hard (top-down) to get banks set up to be able to access those emergency funds.  Meanwhile, in Britian, new Labor Finance Minister announced an immediate cut of more than $7.072 billion in 2024 spending. She told Parliament that the previous Conservative administration had left spending on track to go $28 billion over budget this year. In addition, she announced tentative plans for another $10.4 billion in cuts for 2025.  (The interesting thing about this is that it is a complete 180-degree from public stereotypes that liberals spend and conservatives are fiscally sound, which is often not true.)  The point is that cuts may slow a UK economic rebound as Labor tries to get the budget in order.  Elsewhere, China took another step toward hiding its market situation.  Beijing announced that beginning August 18^th, it will stop publishing daily inflow/outflow data for overseas funds. 

In miscellaneous geopolitical news, it appears Russians continue their attacks on France during the Olympic games.  In addition, to coordinated arson attacks that shut down the rail system the day of the opening ceremonies, on Monday many of the country’s fiber optic broadband services were cut. However, broadband service in Paris were not sabotaged, perhaps due to heightened security in that area. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported Monday that South Korea has identified who North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has chosen as his eventual successor.  Kim Jun-ae, Un’s preteen daughter (South Korea believes the daughter is 11 years old and his second of three children with his wife) has been tapped as the eventual heir apparent.  Meanwhile, in Venezuela, the Maduro regime appears to have stolen yet another election.  Exit polls had the opposition leader (third in line and the two leading opposition figures were barred from running) had captured more that 65% of votes.  However, Maduro’s hand-picked election commission declared that he had won by 51% to 44%.  At least hundreds of protesters took to the streets of Caracas to protest the “certified election” of Maduro.

With that background, it looks as if traders are waking up both modestly bullish and undecided this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped just a bit higher to start the premarket, but have traded indecisively since then. SPY and QQQ are printing white-bodied candles with wicks while DIA is printing a black-bodied candle (all three of which are small) in the early session. DIA remains above its T-line (8ema) while SPY and QQQ remain below their own T-lines. The very short-term trend is now Bullish. Meanwhile, in the mid-term and longer-term, there is no way to look at markets except to say they remain bullish and still not all that far from their all-time highs. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too stretched from their T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator has dropped to just outside overbought territory at the top-end of its mid-range. So, there is still room to run either direction, but it would seem the Bears have a little more slack with which to work. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green so far in the premarket as NFLX (+0.80%) is the leader (it is unusual that is the case) NVDA (-0.17%) is the laggard. TSLA (+0.41%) is well out in front of the others in terms of dollar volume traded followed by NVDA with a big drop off to the rest.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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