Blog - Page 274 of 645 - Hit & Run Candlesticks

Growth Concerns

March 22, 2019 by Doug Campbell

Global Growth concerns once again raise its ugly head after European data disappoints just one day after a broad-based market rally. I must admit I was hoping for a little follow through to the upside this morning but the futures are currently pointing to a gap down open across all indexes. Overall it has been a great week of gains in the QQQ & SPY and some profit-taking as we head into the weekend should not be that surprising.

Although yesterdays strong rally may have felt as if the all-clear sounded, however, a quick look at the index charts shows us that price resistance above is still at work. The DIA and IWM are particularly problematic with the lower high still in force even after such a bullish move Thursday. Keep that in mind as you plan your risk heading into the weekend.

On the Calendar

We have a light day on the Earnings Calendar with less than 40 companies reporting. Notable earnings DXLG, HIBB, JKS & TIF.

Action Plan

After such a big rally on Thursday that was very broad-based I was hoping for a little more upside this morning. However, the market has different plans after some disappointing European data once again raises concerns of a global economic slowdown. Asian markets managed an ever so slightly bullish close across the board but this morning European markets are all seeing red.

US Futures that have been out of sync of late have linked back up and currently indicate a lower open today. The recently problematic Existing Home Sales out at 10 AM Eastern could belay some slow down concerns if the number comes in showing an increase as the consensus is expecting. Of course if it misses the exact opposite may be true adding to the slow down concerns this morning. All and all it has been a fantastic week of gains and there is nothing wrong with a little profit-taking as we head into the weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Fear of Recession Heats Up

March 22, 2019 by Rick Saddler

From Open to close yesterday the SPY had a $4.10 day, not bad at all. Now the buyers need to keep their bulls focused in the right direction. With the fear of rescission heating up, the bulls will likely catch a little wind that smells like fear. At some point, enough fear will cause selling in the market. MKE being down and the BA troubles will weigh on the DOW today. (Caution). The buyers produced a nice Bullish Engulf on the SPY chart closing at $284.73; A Bullish Engulf is just one gear in the machine. Now the buyers need to show they have what it takes to drive the price action higher. So far our Red Green Trend is working, the question is will the buyers be able to push the 50SMA over the 200SMA?

Yesterday (Thursday) was a nice profitable day, and I suspect today will be the same because we typically take profits of Fridays and lighten up going into the weekend.

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(HD) Home Depot

March 21, 2019 by Rick Saddler

HD – Alerted us with the LTA Scanner; HD alerted on the RBB scan, T-Band scan, and Red Green scan. 3/21/19 closed 1/2 with 35% raising stop on second 1/2

XOP – Alerted us a few days ago for the (RBB) Rounded Bottom Breakout was setting up. Currently up 34%

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Live Trading Alerts

March 21, 2019 by Rick Saddler

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SPY Lower T-Band Test?

March 21, 2019 by Rick Saddler

For the most part, the SPY’s price action was uneventful yesterday with the statement by the Fed Chairman. The past two candles are suggesting a bit chop headed our way and a possible lower T-Band test. A close today below yesterdays low (280.32) would clue us in on a possible deeper move down, below 278.45 would set up a test of the March low. If price action and can come together and hold above 278.45ish (our Red Line) a few more buyers would be interested and could push the SPY back up and above the Green line T-Band Line. The trend and price action is the best information you can have as a trader and to have a tool to deliver that information would be golden.

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No Rate Increases

March 21, 2019 by Doug Campbell

The FOMC signals no rate increases for the rest of the year but the market seems very unimpressed by the action. While the market has been trying to ignore the clues of an economic slowdown the Fed appear to have taken a no-confidence vote in its strength. Financials quickly reacted negatively to the news and are looking slightly lower this morning.

Asian and European market responded mostly higher on the news but the US Futures currently show mixed reviews. The Dow indicates a slightly lower open while the NASDAQ is suggesting slightly higher. Technically speaking the SPY and the QQQ are in very good shape but the Dow and the IWM having printed lower highs at resistance there is reason for a little caution. Also keep an eye on the VIX that once again quietly crept up yesterday. If that continues it could trigger a little profit-taking as we head toward the weekend.

On the Calendar

We have nearly 100 companies reporting earnings today with the most notable being, NKE, CSIQ, CTAS, CEO, CAG, DRI, LE, PTR & TCEHY.

Action Plan

The market seems quite unimpressed by the FOMC decision to avoid raising interest rates for the rest of the year. Normally low rates would inspire the market but in this case the FOMC appears not so confident in the overall economy. During the night the Dow Futures were down about 100 points even though Asian and European markets responded marginally higher. As I write this futures have rallied in the pre-market pump but it would not surprise me to the overnight lows tested sometime today.

The QQQ remains very strong, the SPY is holding firm in consolidation but the DIA and IWM continue to signal a little caution due to their lower high prints. All indexes continue to have resistance challenges above making the path forward difficult to determine. The VIX edged higher again yesterday suggesting a little fear might be creeping in which could lead to some profit-taking if that were to continue as we head toward the weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

SPY Navigating Rough Sea’s

March 20, 2019 by Rick Saddler

The SPY is still having a tough time navigating the rough seas around the $280.00 – $282.00 area. The reason may be the bears are trying to build a right shoulder to go along with the head and left shoulder (Weekly Chart). While the possible right should is in construction, we will see price action chop around, and this will test the best of traders. Having a handle on the trend and price action within the trend is a huge advantage for the active swing trader. Yesterday’s price action closed above the T-Line, and the T-Line is tracking above the 17ema and the 34ema, other than yesterday’s candle controlled by the sellers the current trend is still bullish. The price action and the health of the current trend will determine the outcome of the possible right shoulder. Tools of a good swing trader might include a strong understanding of chart patterns, trends and trend lines, support and resistance and the all-important price action.

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On the Calendar

We have 52 companies on the Earnings Calendar stepping up to report today. Among the notable reports: GIS, GES, MU and WSM.

Action Plan

Early bullishness yesterday faded away in the afternoon session after a news report suggesting the trade negotiations with China had run into new challenges. Candle patterns left behind at or near resistance levels suggest a little caution might be in order as the market tries to digest the full measure of the issue. The disappointing market price action dealt with another disappointment as FDX missed earnings and tumbling nearly 7%.

Today is all about the FOMC and although the committee is not likely to raise rates, their forward forecast and decisions on balance sheet unwinding will have the market’s attention. The festivities begin at 2:00 PM Eastern with the Chairman’s press conference at 2:30. It would not be a surprise to see light choppy price action as we wait for the Fed announcement followed by a period of volatility and wild price swings directly after. Currently futures are pointing to falt open with European markets currently in red across the board and Asian markets having closed flat to mostly lower overnight.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Price Action Crossover

March 19, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Looking at yesterdays SPY chart, I have drawn a box around the POP Out of The Box Pattern, with a bullish pop and hold today we will have a confirmed POOTB pattern. The bulls might finally be on their way to challenge the September / October highs with the first challenge of $286.80ish. The SPY had a nice pullback 7/8 days ago and printed a bullish Morning Star candle pattern with bullish follow-through. Using the Red/Green Line crossover you can see a perfect Price Action Crossover on March 19. Today’s Trade-Ideas for consideration based on the RBB setup and Price Action crossover.

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Feisty Bulls

March 19, 2019 by Doug Campbell

The feisty bulls staged a late-day rally yesterday and according to the futures markets want to keep their party going this morning despite the FOMC meeting that begins today. Asian markets were tepid and cautious closing mixed but mostly lower overnight. However European markets as well as the US Futures are throwing caution to the wind with the Dow pointing to a triple point gap up.

A breach of key resistance levels in the SP-500 and the NASDAQ will occur this morning if the bullishness holds until the open. Remember not to chase the morning gap let’s wait until we see buyer supporting the gap to avoid the dreaded pop and drop at price resistance. Having said that if those feisty bulls want to party ahead of the FOMC lets ride along and continue to profit as they push our positions higher. Gaps are gifts so consider taking some of those gits to the bank.

On the Calendar

We have 50 companies reporting earnings today. Among the most notable are MIK, CHA, DSW, FDX, FNV and SCS.

Action Plan

Today begins the FOMC meeting where its largely expected that the committee will make no change in the current interest rate. It’s normal for price action to become light and choppy as the market waits for the Fed decision but a late afternoon surge of bullishness defied the norm. Though Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower, European markets are currently green across the board as are the US Futures.

If the bullishness in the futures holds through open the NASDAQ and the SP-500 will open above key resistance levels. As always, don’t chase a morning gap into price resistance because of the of possible pop and drop it can set up. There is no rush so let’s wait and see if buyers step in after the open supporting the gap. Honestly, I don’t understand where all this bullishness sentiment is coming from but that doesn’t matter. My job, our job as traders is the trade the chart and if the bulls want to go up then the understanding why is not important. We of course always have to remain vigilant watching for price action clues of profit taking or reversal prepared for that possibility. Until then it the bulls want to party let’s continue to profit from the festivities.

Trade Wisley,

Doug