Infrastructure Bill, Berkshire, and TSLA

Friday was a volatile day as stocks gapped half a percent higher on much stronger than expected October Payrolls and lower than expected Unemployment.  However, after the gap, all 3 major indices just drifted sideways until noon.  Then a sharp selloff took us to the lows of the day by 1:30 pm.  Finally, a modest rally and sideways grind took back near the gap.  This left us with gap-up Doji or Spinning Top type candles in all 3 major indices.  It also meant another all-time high close in all 3 of them.  On the day, SPY gained 0.35%, DIA gained 0.54%, and QQQ gained 0.10%.  (For the week, SPY gained 2.02%, DIA gained 1.42%, and QQQ gained a whopping 3.23%.)  The VXX rose to 20.83 and T2122 jumped back up into the overbought territory at 90.26 at day end.  10-year bond yields fell sharply to 1.455% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 3% to $81.19/barrel.

Over the weekend, the House passed the $1 trillion Infrastructure Bill and sent it to the President for signing.  The bill includes $110 billion for road and bridge repair and replacement as well as $66 billion in freight and passenger railroad maintenance and upgrade.  $65 billion will go to improving the electric grid, another $50 billion to make the grid more resilient.  $55 billion will go for upgrades to water infrastructure (including removing lead pipes).  The bill will also give $65 billion to internet providers (Telcos and Cable companies mainly) for rural broadband.  $47 billion will go toward cybersecurity and climate change threats.  $42 billion will go to airport repair, expansion, and modernization and $39 billion will be used to modernize public transit.  $17 billion goes for seaport improvements, as well as $11 billion for safety, $7.5 billion for electric vehicle charging stations, and $7.5 billion for electric school buses.

BRKA / BRKB also reported that they had an 18% increase in earnings last quarter, citing a strong rebound in railroad, utilities, and energy businesses (reporting $6.47 billion in operating income).  Berkshire also reported a record $149 billion in cash on hand (up over $5 billion from the prior quarter), despite an aggressive stock buyback plan (which repurchased $7.6 billion of BRK stock during the quarter).  Of note to investors, since Buffett is the ultimate value investor, when he is hoarding cash it means he thinks companies and stocks are over-valued. 

TC2000 Discount

In miscellaneous market news, cryptocurrencies are surging this morning.  Ethereum is at an all-time high and Bitcoin is nearing its all-time high again as well as the volatile swings continue in that space.  Elsewhere, TSLA stock is taking a nasty hit this morning after Elon Musk took to TWTR on Saturday.  Musk launched a poll asking whether he should sell 10% of his TSLA stock as a gesture toward avoiding unrealized (and therefore untaxed) gains on his TSLA stock holdings.  58% of the 3.5 million-plus respondents said “yes, he should sell the stock and pay tax on the gains.” (I guess this is a prime example of, “never ask a question to which you don’t already know the answer”.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed in modest trading.  India (+0.85%), Indonesia (+0.77%), and Singapore (+0.66%) led to the upside.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-0.43%), Japan (-0.35%), and South Korea (-0.31%) paced the losers.  In Europe, stocks are mixed on widely varied trading.  Denmark (+1.50%) and Greece (+0.97%) are both up strong at mid-day.  However, the FTSE (-0.03%), DAX (-0.17%), and CAC (+0.22%) are generally flat in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open.  The DIA is implying a +0.19% open, the SPY implies a +0.06% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.01% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 1.479% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.10% in early trading. 

There is no major economic news scheduled for release on Monday.  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include COTY, GTES, VAC, THS, USFD, and VTRS before the open.  Then after the close, AEL, CBT, IEA, IFF, BEKE, DOOR, MRC, PYPL, PRI, PRIM, RBLX, TME, TPIC, VGR, and ZNGA report.

LTA Scanning Software

With no economic news on the docket and no real earnings of note this morning, it would seem Infrastructure bill winners/losers and follow-through on last week’s strong bullish momentum will call the tune this morning. We remain quite extended to the upside and all 3 major indices can easily be seen as gap-up star candles on Friday. So, watch for signs of an Evening Star.

With that said, we have to remember that the market can remain very extended much longer than you can stay solvent while being right about a reversal too early. Long-term trading success has never come from betting on a reversal yet to come. The trend is our friend.

Focus on your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. That should include consistently taking profits when you have them and moving your stops in your favor. Watch your current positions before looking to add any new trades. Trade carefully and think twice about holding through earnings.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: FCEL, BBIG, LCID, XLE, FSM. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Going Parabolic

Going Parabolic

As traders rush to buy tech, it’s hard to ignore that the QQQ chart is going parabolic as we look for another gap up in the QQQ this morning.  Analysts expect today’s employment situation number to come in very bullish, so maybe the buying party continues into the weekend.  However, carefully plan your risk and remember to take some profits noting that the economic situation in China continues to worsen.  Odds of a pullback continue to grow, so don’t be the last the last dollar in the door chasing extended stocks.

Overnight Asian markets mostly sold off with the news of another developer default as their real estate crunch continues. However, European markets show modest gains across the board after the BOE maintained rates but began tapering easy money policies.  Ahead of the employment situation report and a lighter day of earnings, the Dow and Sp-500 futures trade muted with the Nasdaq suggesting a gap to new another new record. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We get a little break from the breakneck pace of earings this week with just 105 companies listed and a good number of them unconfirmed.  Notable reports include AMCX, CGC, D, DKNG, ELAN, FLR, GCI, GT, GRPN, HMC, JCI, DOC, & PNW.

News & Technicals’

Analysts expect the economy to have added 450,000 jobs in October, according to estimates from Dow Jones. That’s up sharply from 194,000 in September. In addition, they see hourly wages rising by 4.9% on a year-over-year basis. That will be a significant number since the market sees inflation and whether it will continue to run hotter than expected.  The jobs report is back in focus as a critical input for the Fed, which announced plans to start tapering back its bond purchases this month. That opens the door to potential interest rate hikes next year, economists say.  Asad Rehman, a spokesperson for the COP26 coalition, a U.K.-based civil society representing indigenous communities, frontline activists, and grassroots campaigns from the global south, told CNBC that he had been struck by the comparisons between the meeting in Glasgow and previous talks in Copenhagen.  The 2009 summit in Denmark’s capital city is widely regarded as a failure, with a deal many countries criticized for falling short of the action needed to tackle the climate crisis.  The summit continues after pledging $18 billion to end the use of coal. 

The Nasdaq’s surge continues to set records, the chart now going parabolic and looking to gap higher ahead of the employment situation report. However, plan your risk carefully and prepare as we continue to extend because simple logic would suggest the odds of a substantial pullback growing with every tick higher the indexes extend.  At some point, we will hit a point of exhaustion, and when that last dollar is in, look a sideways move at a minimum and more likely a strong profit-taking selloff. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Oct Payrolls and Unemployment in 30 min

The SPY and QQQ gapped a bit higher and the DIA gapped a bit lower at the open.  Then the SPY and QQQ followed through, especially the QQQ, before grinding sideways for most of the day.  A late-day rally took us out near the highs of the day.  This left us with strong white candles in the two broader indices and a Harami Doji in the DIA.  Both the SPY and QQQ closed at yet another new all-time high close.  On the day, SPY gained 0.45%, QQQ gained 1.26%, and DIA lost 0.07%.  The VXX gained 1.5% to 20.13 and T2122 fell just outside of the overbought territory at 76.04.  10-year bond yields fell to 1.523% and Oil (WTI) fell over 2% to $79.10/barrel.

After hours, ILMN, AIG, MCHP, MSI, WELL, OXY, SWKS, EXPE, NLOK, REG, FRT, PINS, EOG, MTD, NWSA, and NWS were among the major companies reporting beats on both lines.  MELI, NKTR, and DUK were among those reporting an earnings beat, but who also missed on revenue.  Meanwhile, MNST missed on earnings, but beat on revenue.  Only PTON missed on both lines.

So far this morning, ENB, FLR, ELAN, HE, AMCX, CNK, SRE, and VTR all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, HMC, JCI, D, and MODV reported beats on earnings but came up short on revenue.  There have been no major reports the beat on revenue but missed on earnings. However, MGA, GCI, and TIXT missed on both earnings and revenue. 

TC2000 Discount

In miscellaneous business news, PFE says it has developed its own Covid treatment pill that when coupled with a drug for treating HIV, cuts the risk of hospitalization or death by 89% among adults exposed to the Covid virus.  This is the second treatment pill for Covid-19, following MRK’s which was announced at the beginning of October, but was only 50% effective (alone) at reducing hospitalization or death in mild-moderate cases of Covid-19.  Elsewhere, PTON is getting crushed in premarket after last night’s bad earnings report (much larger losses than expected).  PTON was down as much as 35% overnight and now sits down 33%.

Overnight, Asian markets were very mixed with a very widespread.  Hong Kong (-1.41%) and Shanghai (-1.00%) paced the losses.  However, on the other side, Taiwan (+1.28%) and New Zealand (+1.01%) led the gainers.  In Europe, markets are mixed, but lean to the green side.  The FTSE (+0.67%), DAX (+0.18%), and CAC (+0.63%) are representative of the spread on the green side while Portugal (-0.90%), Greece (-0.75%), and Russia (-0.22%) are typical of the spread among the losing exchanges at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modest gap-up at this hour.  The DIA is implying a +0.09% open, the SPY implies a +0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.30% open at this point. 10-year bond yields and Oil (WTI) are both up a bit in early trading.  

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday includes Oct. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Oct. Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Participation Rate, and Oct. Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AMCX, AXL, BEP, CLMT, DSEY, D, SSP, ELAN, FLR, GLP, GT, HE, HMC, JCI, MGA, MODV, PNW, REV, SRE, TIXT, TEN, VTR, and VST before the open.  Then after the close, there are no major reports.

LTA Scanning Software

More earnings overnight and this morning will color the mood of the markets today. However, at this point, traders are mostly waiting on the data dump at 8:30 am. That October Payrolls and Unemployment data are likely to impact the tone of the market this morning. As has been the case for a while, the bulls have all of the momentum, but we are also quite extended in the QQQ especially, but also the SPY. So, it is about time for some relief in the form of consolidation or pullback.

With that said, we have to remember that the market can remain very extended much longer than you can stay solvent while being right about a reversal too early. Long-term trading success has never come from betting on a reversal yet to come. The trend is our friend.

Focus on your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. That should include consistently taking profits when you have them and moving your stops in your favor. Watch your current positions before looking to add any new trades. Trade carefully and think twice about holding through earnings.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Friday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

105 Billion Per Month

105 Billion Per Month

The Fed will back off ever so slightly on its easy-money policies but continue to print debit at a rate of 105 billion per month despite the inflationary pressures.  Without a doubt, the market loves all the printing, setting new records on the news with the IWM joining in for the first time this year. So let the party continue but keep in mind this rally is getting long in the tooth, and rest is well overdue.

Asian market rallied with green across the board overnight in reaction to the Fed decision.  This morning, European markets are also in a bullish mood with the easy money policies tapering only slightly. However, with a massive day of earnings and Jobless data ahead, U.S. futures point to a muted open except for the Nasdaq gapping to another record at the open.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Today, we have a massive day of reports with more than 350 companies listed on the earnings calendar.  Notable reports include SQ, MRNA, ACIW, WYNN, APD, ABNB, ALL, AIG, ABC, AAOI, APTV, GOLD, BDX, CNQ, CARS, CVNA, CC, LNG, CI, CTXS, CLNE, ED, CS, CUBE, CYBR, DDOG, DPSGY, DIN, DBX, SUK, EGLE, LOCO, ENDP, EOG, EXPE, FSLR, FTNT, FNKO, GOGO, GPRO, GPRE, GPP, HBI, HL, IAC, IHRT, ILMN, K, LITE, MCHP, MNST, NKLA, NTDOY, NLOK, NVAX, NRG, PH, PTON, PENN, PINS, PLNT, REGN, RKT, SHAK, SWKS, SO, SFM, RUN, SSYS, SYNA, TGH, TM, HEAR, UBER, OLED, VIAC, W, WWE, WW, YELP, & ZTS.

News & Technicals’

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it would begin tapering the pace of its asset purchases later in November.  The reduction will see $10 billion less in Treasurys and $5 billion less in mortgage-backed securities every month.  There also was only a slight change to Fed’s view on inflation. The post-meeting statement kept the word “transitory” to describe price increases running at a 30-year high. However, it qualified the term somewhat by saying pressures are “expected to” be temporary.  Chairman Jerome Powell said he expects conditions pushing inflation to last “well into next year.′  In its shareholder letter, the company said the slowdown results from “global supply chain disruptions that have impacted the U.S. TV market.”  “The pandemic continues to disrupt global supply chains,” CFO Steve Louden told CNBC.  “For the TV industry, you’re having elevated component pricing, inventory availability issues, and supply chain logistics delays,” he said.  Treasury yields traded mixed this morning, with the 10-year dipping to 1.5735% and the 30-year rising slightly to 1.9958%.

Markets love money printing rising after the Fed said it would continue printing at the pace of 105 billion per month.  We are a market inflated by massive debit at taxpayer expence, and we can’t seem to get enough of it!  That said, we set new records in all four indexes as the IWM joined in on the party busting through more than a year of price resistance. So stay with the trend but always be on guard because a tumble from these heights could be painful and simple logic would suggest a rest is well overdue. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Earnings Strong, More Econ Data Today

Markets opened dead flat on Wednesday and stayed that way until the 2pm Fed Announcement.  However, markets loved that there were no surprises and rallied hard from 2 pm right into the close.  This left us with strong white candles in all 3 major indices, with all 3 closing at yet another new all-time high close (the 4th in a row for DIA, 5th in a row for SPY and 6th in a row for QQQ).  The VXX was down 3.5% to 19.82 and T2122 spiked back up into the overbought territory to 92.65.  10-year bond yields rose to 1.602% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 5% to $79.97/barrel.

As expected, the Fed said Wednesday afternoon that they will begin tapering the purchase of bonds later this month.  Fed Chair Powell said the taper will see a reduction of $10 billion in Treasuries and $5 billion in mortgage-backed bonds to be bought.  There was only a small change in the FOMC’s view of inflation.  They still feel inflation is transitory, but now expect those pressures to last well into next year  (when they had originally forecast they would end at the beginning of the year).

After the close, QCOM, BKNG, MET, ANSS, ALB, FOX, FOXA, MGM, FLT, QRVO, MRO, MAC, and MATX all beat on both lines.  Meanwhile, PXD, DXC, CTRA, and LUMN beat on the earnings line but missed on revenue.  EA, TTWO, LNC, and HST beat on the revenue line but missed on earnings.  No companies reported misses on both lines last night. 

TC2000 Discount

So far today, ZTS, CI, BDX, REGN, APD, SO, ABC, AES, CNP, IRM, NRG, APTV, and XRAY have all reported beats on both lines.  DUK, FIS, ZBH, PWR, CTXS, and HII reported beats on earnings but missed on revenue.  On the other side, BLL, VIAC, and DISH beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  Only MRNA reported misses on both lines, after reporting lower than expected Covid vaccine sales and reducing the forecast for that product in future quarters.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  Shenzhen (+1.30%), Japan (+0.93%), and Thailand (+0.89%) led the gainers, but the green was widespread.  Among the 4 showing red, Taiwan (-0.25%) was the most notable.  In Europe, markets are green across the board with the lone exception of Russia (-0.54%).  The FTSE (+0.05%) is atypical as it lags, but the DAX (+0.52%) and CAC (+0.39%) are representative of the continent at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mixed open.  The DIA is implying a flat -0.01% open, the SPY implies a +0.14% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.35% open.  10-year bond yields are down in early trading, but Oil (WTI) is rebounding hard (almost 2%) early to $82.44/barrel.  

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday includes Sept Trade Balance, Imports/Exports, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, and Q3 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AHCO, WMS, AES, APD, AEE, ABC, APTV, ARW, BLL, GOLD, BCE, BDX, BLDR, CNP, CQP, LNG, CI, CTXS, CNHI, CFX, COMM, CS, XRAY, DISH, DUK, DNB, ERJ, EPAM, FIS, GEO, GIL, GTN, GPRE, HBI, HWM, HII, NSIT, IBP, IRM, ICL, ITRI, K, KTB, MRNA, MUR, NOMD, NRG, OGE, OPCH, PAE, PZZA, PH, PENN, PPL, PRMW, PWR, QRTEA, REGN, REYN, SO, SRLP, TRGP, TGNA, VIAC, VSTO, VNT, VMC, W, WCC, ZBH, and ZTS before the open.  Then after the close, AMRK, ABNB, LNT, ATUS, AIG, COLD, AMN, BGS, BHF, BKD, CVNA, CC, CNDT, ED, CVET, BAP, CWK, DK, DBX, ENDP, EOG, EXPE, FSLR, FND, FTNT, IAC, IHRT, ILMN, LYV, MTZ, MELI, MTD, MCHP, MNST, MSI, NWSA, OXY, ZEUS, OTEX, CNXN, PDCE, PTON, PFSI, PINS, RDFN, RGA, REZI, RKT, SEM, SWLS, SFM, SQ, TDS, UBER, USM, and WELL report.

LTA Scanning Software

Once again we got a flood of earnings. And yet again the large majority of them were very positive. Add to that the fact that the market loved the certainty and specifics offered by the Fed yesterday afternoon, and you have a strong bullish setup. However, we also need to remember that we are extended and coming off of many days straight of new all-time highs. So, it is about time for some extension relief in the form of consolidation or pullback.

With that said, bear in mind that the market can remain very extended longer than you can stay solvent being right early. Also, remember that long-term trading success has never come from betting on a reversal to come. The trend is our friend.

Focus on your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. That should include consistently taking profits when you have them and moving your stops in your favor. Watch your current positions before looking to add any new trades. Trade carefully and think twice about holding through earnings.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BILI, AG, APA, XLE, CVX, ADBE, CHWY, TDOC, DKS, DG You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Ravenous Appetite for Risk

Ravenous Appetite for Risk

We continue to set index records with stock, with P/E ratios burgeoning as the bulls continue their ravenous appetite for risk.  The chart technical’s and the price action show no clues that the trend is ready to stop.  However, it would be unwise to assume we will never pull back and chase already extended stocks so late in the rally. So today, expect choppy action ahead of the FOMC decision on taper and prepare for the typically wild volatility directly after the announcement.   

Asian markets traded mixed but mostly lower overnight with modest gains and losses.  European markets also trade flat this morning as they wait on the Fed and the news that the Bank of England may soon raise rates.  With a massive day of earnings data, ADP, and the Fed decision later this afternoon, the U.S. futures point to a mixed open with modest gains and losses as we wait.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the hump day earnings calendar, we have more than 300 expected to report today.  Notable reports include ALG, ALB, AMRN, APA, AAWW, BKNG, BWA, CPRI, CF, CAKE, CLH, CVS, DISCA, ELF, EA, EMR, ET, ETR, ETSY, EXC, FSLY, FSR, FOXA, FDP, GDDY, HR, HFC, HST, TWNK, HUBS, HUM, H, IAG, INFN, IR, KTOS, LCI, LBTYA, LL, MRO, MAR, MAR, MBI, MET, MGM, NCLH, NVO, NUS, OMP, PETQ, PXD, PBI PBPB, QRVO, QCOM, QLYS, RYN, RCII, ROKU, SMG, SBGI, SWN, RGR, SPWR, TTWO, TRUE, WING, & XP. 

New & Technicals’

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership or RCEP will come into force in January 2022.  Australia and New Zealand were the latest to ratify the world’s largest trade agreement.  Other countries that have ratified RCEP include Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, China, and Japan, according to Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.  Policymakers have intimated that a hike is imminent, but the nine-member MPC will need to determine whether to tighten policy this week or wait until its mid-December meeting. Markets are uncertain about the timing, with analysts suggesting the vote is likely to be split. However, at Monday’s close, market data showed that derivatives traders were pricing in a 64% probability of a 15 basis point rate hike this week, Berenberg highlighted in a note Tuesday.  Zillow said it’s winding down its homebuying unit, called Offers, which competes with Opendoor.  The company said it’s cutting 25% of its workforce in eliminating the unit after reporting disappointing earnings results.  Ahead of the FOMC decision, U.S. Treasurys pulled back in early morning trading, with the 10-year dipping to 1.5243% and the 30-year sliding to 1.9335%.

Another day and more records set in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ as the ravenous appetite for risk appears to have no bounds.  Though the extension in the indexes seems extreme, there is no sign that it’s ready to stop.  The current SP-500 P/E Ratio is more than 96% above the historical average, suggesting a strongly overvalued condition.  The only time this level was higher in history was the 1999 internet bubble when it reached 132%.  So, that would suggest the party may still have plenty of life but let’s not forget the ramifications of such an extension when the party’s over.  Today we will be in wait and see mode until the FOMC decision and the question is answered on a taper.  At the risk of sounding like a broken record, be careful chasing already extended stocks and be ready for the typical Fed volatility whip after the announcement.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

PreMarket Flat in Front of Big News Day

Markets opened basically flat on Tuesday and then very slowly crept higher over the course of the day.  This left us with white candles that closed near the highs of their candles, with all 3 major indices closing at new all-time high closes again.  On the day, SPY gained 0.39%, DIA gained 0.40%, and QQQ gained 0.42%.  The VXX fell to 20.54 and T2122 fell just outside the overbought territory at 78.72.  10-year bond yields fell to 1.545% and Oil (WTI) fell two-thirds of a percent to $83.51/barrel.

After hours, AKAM, AMGN, MDLZ, ATVI, VRTX, PRU, VRSK, OKE, DVN, PKI, and AMCR all beat on both lines.  TMUS beat significantly on earnings but missed on revenue.  On the opposite side, EIX missed on revenue but beat significantly on revenue.  However, WU missed on both lines. 

In other after-hours news, BBY spiked hard as they announced they are launching a digital marketplace to sell third-party products.  They also announced a collaboration between BBY and KR.  Finally, they said their stock buyback program was ahead of schedule.  Elsewhere, the CDC gave final approval for immediate distribution of the PFE vaccine for children ages 5–11.  MDLZ also announced they will raise the prices of their main product lines (Oreo, Ritz Crackers, and Sour Patch candy) by 7% in 2022 after saying they are expecting costs to rise 6%.

TC2000 Discount

So far this morning, MAR, ETR, EVRG, NI, CPRI, HFC, CVS, EXC, BR, and BWA have all reported beats on both lines.  HUM, EMR, CTRA, and CDW beat on earnings but missed on revenue.  DISCA, DISCK, and NCLH beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  There were no reported misses on both lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red in modest trading.  Australia (+0.93%) and Taiwan (+0.33%) were the only bullish exceptions.  South Korea (-1.25%) was also an outlier to the downside.  However, Japan (-0.43%), Shanghai (-0.20%), and Shenzhen (-0.07%) were typical of the spread in the region.  In Europe, markets are mixed as of mid-day, also on mostly modest trading.  Portugal (-1.96%) is a huge outlier, but the FTSE (-0.27%), DAX (-0.03%), and CAC (+0.08%) are more typical of the continent.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open in the US as well as we wait on the Fed announcements.  The DIA implies a -0.13% open, the SPY is implying a -0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.06% open at this hour.  

The major economic news scheduled to release on Wednesday includes Oct. ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (8:15 am), Sept. Trade Balance (8:30 am), Oct. Services PMI (9:45 am), Sept. Factory Orders and Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (both at 10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Statement (2 pm), and the Fed Chair Press Conf. (at 3:30 pm, a non-normal time).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AMRX, ATH, AAWW, BDC, BGCP, BWA, EAT, BR, BIP, CWH, CPRI, CDW, FUN, CRL, CLH, SID, CTRA, CVS, DISCA, EMR, ETR, EVRG, EXC, EXPI, HFC, HZNP, HUM, JLL, MKL, MAR, NYT, NI, ODP, OMI, PSN, PBI, PLTK, PRG, RRD, SMG, SBGI, SITE, SPR, SHOO, SUN, SYNH, TT, TUP, VNTR, VRTV, and VSH before the open.  Then after the close, ALB, ALL, UHAL, APA, ACA, EQH, BKNG, CENX, CF, CHNG, CAKE, CLR, CTVA, CW, DXC, EA, ET, NVST, EQIX, ETSY, FLT, FOXA, GFL, GDDY, H, ICLR, IR, ITT, KL, LHCG, LBTYA, LNC, LUMN, MATX, MET, MGM, NUS, PTVE, PARR, PXD, QRVO, REGI, ROKU, RYI, SWN, SUM, TTWO, TRMB, TPC, VVV, XP, and YELL report.

LTA Scanning Software

Earnings continue to be very strong for the most part. However, it seems markets around the world are waiting on today’s big dump of data and in particular the Fed announcements. The Fed moves have been widely telegraphed for quite some time, but Mr. Market seems to want to hear the words to remove all doubt. In the meantime, the bulls have been running wild, with the major indices at all-time highs after a very strong 3-week streak. So, the trend is strongly bullish, the Fed news is believed to already be known (bond-buying taper starting and inflation is going to last longer than the FOMC originally thought). That puts the risk on the downside (unexpected bad news could hurt twice as bad). Be prepared.

Keep in mind that while we are extended, the market can remain very extended longer than you can stay solvent being right early. Long-term trading success has never come from betting on reversals. Remember, the trend is our friend. Focus on your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. And that should include consistently taking profits when you have them and moving your stops. Watch your current positions before looking to add new trades. Trade carefully and think twice about holding through earnings.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BGFV, BIG, BTBT, CHWY, BX, X, MU, ORCL, LVS. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bulls Continue Higher

Bulls Continue Higher

The bulls continue higher with a mighty shove, setting new records despite declining ISM and Construction Spending numbers.  I guess the message is don’t bother me with the details of the economy because I want to buy, buy, buy no matter what!  Now the market will have to grapple with the FOMC and the possibility of a taper in the easy money policies and jobs data the rest of the week.  With emotional speculation running very high, expect challenging volatility, particularly if this bull run stumbles.  So plan your risk carefully as we continue to stretch the indexes.

Asian markets traded mostly lower as real estate stocks retreated with growing default fears and China slipping into stagflation.  European markets trade mainly higher as they wait on the decision from the FOMC.  The U.S. futures indicate an uncharacteristically flat open this morning, facing a big day of earnings events and the beginning of the central bank meeting. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have a busy day with 190 companies listed, but a large number are unconfirmed.  Notable reports include PFE, ATVI, AKAM, AFG, AWK, AMGN, APO, ARNC, BHC, BLMN, BP, CZR, CRK, COP, COUR, CMI, DVN, APPS, DD, ETN, EIX, EL, EXAS, EXPD, RACE, GRNC, GNW, GRBK, HSIC, HLF, IEP, IDDXX, KKR, LEA, LPSN, LPX, LYFY, MMP, MPC, MLM, MTCH, MDLZ, PACB, RL, SEE, SEDG, SRC, SMCI, TMUS, UAA, UNM, WU, XPO, & Z.

News & Technicals’

ON MONDAY NIGHT, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that his electric vehicle company has yet to sign a contract with rental car company Hertz.  Tesla hit a $1 trillion market cap for the first time a week ago after Hertz announced it would grow its fleet of battery-electric vehicles with “an initial order of 100,000 Tesla’s by the end of 2022.” In addition, the EPA will propose rules to plug methane gas leaks at hundreds of thousands of oil and gas wells in the U.S.  The agency’s measures will strengthen current regulations on new oil and gas wells and impose new requirements for existing wells that previously escaped methane regulations.  According to senior Biden administration officials, President Joe Biden will formally announce the proposals during the second day of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland.  According to its amended prospectus filed Monday, electric vehicle start-up Rivian Automotive is seeking a market valuation of as much as $54.6 billion in its upcoming initial public offering.  Rivian said it is offering 135 million shares priced between $57 and $62, with an option for underwriters to purchase up to 20.25 million additional shares.  Amazon and Ford back Rivian. Treasury yield trade mixed this morning before the beginning of the FOMC meeting, with the 10-year falling to 1.5611% and the 30-year up slightly to 1.9770% in early trading. 

The bulls continue higher, setting records in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ, with the IWM surging but finishing just short of a breakout.  The T2122 indicator was nearly pegged at the top of the range heading into the close on Monday, suggesting a short-term extreme overbought condition.  The VIX ended the day slightly higher, which is odd considering the wild-eyed bullishness displayed in the indexes despite the decline in the ISM and construction spending numbers.  The market will now turn its attention to the beginning of the FOMC meeting and the possibility of easy money policies tapering at the announcement Wednesday afternoon.  The market will also begin digesting a slew of jobs data with the ADP Wednesday morning, Jobless Claims Thursday, and the Employment Situation number Friday.  Combined with a considerable number of earnings reports, expect price volatility in this highly emotional and speculative bull run.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Earnings Strong As We Wait For The Fed

Stocks opened up slightly higher Monday and then drifted sideways in waves all day that closed on an up-wave.  This left us with gap-up Hanging Men-type candles in the SPY and QQQ as well as a Doji in the DIA.  On the day, SPY gained 0.17%, DIA gained 0.25%, and QQQ gained 0.33%.  This left all 3 major indices at all-time high closes again.  The VXX fell 1.5% and T2122 jumped up deep into the overbought territory at 94.431.  10-year bond yields were flat at 1.559% and Oil (WTI) gained half of a percent to $83.95/barrel.

Related to Federal spending, the Treasury Department announced late Monday that it is increasing the expected amount of borrowing to $1.02 trillion during Q4, which is up about $314 billion from the August estimate of $703 billion.  In a related story, the Federal Budget, Debt Ceiling Increase, and Infrastructure bills are back in doubt as WV Senator Manchin announced he “may not” support the $1.75 trillion budget plan because he wants “greater clarity” on the impact on the national debt.  Sources told Bloomberg his main concerns are climate-related initiatives and to a lesser degree social spending initiatives as might be expected.  On the opposite side, Progressive Democrats won’t support the bills at lower costs or fewer social and climate initiatives.  This may be as expected since there is still a month left until the deadline created by budget and debt limit extensions. 

After hours, PSA, WMB, MCK, ANET, CLX, FANG, and HOLX all beat on both lines.  Meanwhile, NXPI, SBAC, O, VNO, and LEG beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  On the other side of the coin, MOS missed on both lines and reported that they expect the massive input price surge they have been seeing to continue in Q4.

TC2000 Discount

In earnings this morning, BP, MPC, PFE, DD, ETN, COP, EL, LDOS, HSIC, MPLX, GPN, WLK, KKR, WEC, ROK, TRI, UAA, SEE, XYL, ZBRA, AMEIT, CTLT, LCII, LPX, IDXX, WAT, and TMX all beat on both lines.  LEA, MLM, NXST, GNRC, BLD, SRCL, and HSC missed on earnings but came in at least in line on revenue.  Only ARNC has missed on both lines so far

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red side as Chinese fears over the real estate market flare again and Beijing has halted flights again to combat Covid-19.  South Korea (+1.16%) was the leader to the upside.  Meanwhile, Shanghai (-1.10%), Indonesia (-0.91%), and Shenzhen (-0.69%) paced the losses.  In Europe, markets are also mixed at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.42%), DAX (+0.52%), and CAC (+0.32%) are typical of the spread across the continent as talk of climate initiatives lead all news in Europe the last couple of days.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open.  The DIA is implying a +0.02% open, the SPY implies a -0.02% open, and the QQQ is implying a -0.18% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down slightly and Oil (WTI) is off by half of a percent in early trading.  

There is no major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday.  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include PFE, CRSR, RACE, UAA, CTLT, BP, EL, COP, GPN, GNRC, LPX, RL, ARCB, EPD, ROK, MPC, ZBRA, CMI, BHC, BLMN, MPLX, DD, LGIH, IDXX, KKR, LEA, AME, IT, MLM, ETN, LDOS, SEE, ARNC, INCY, WLK, HSIC, LCII, APO, PEG, BLD, MMP, WAT, NXST, WEC, HSC, XYL, CIGI, TRI, INGR, SRCL, and TMX before the open.  Then after the close, ATVI, AKAM, AMCR, DOX, AMED, AFG, AWK, AMGN, ANDE, ARGO, AIZ, BTG, BFAM, CZR, CHK, DCP, DVN, EIX, ENLC, FMC, FNF, FRG, HLF, KAR, LYFT, MANT, MTCH, MCY, MOD, MDLZ, OKE, OVV, PKI, PAA, PRU, SKY, SEDG, STE, SGRY, TMUS, TX, UNM, VRSK, VRTX, VOYA, WU, XPO, ZG, and Z report.

LTA Scanning Software

Markets seem to be taking a wait-and-see attitude this morning with the FOMC meeting beginning. Even though the outcome is widely expected and has been signaled by the Fed for some time (bond-buying taper begins), traders appear to want to see another card before they place more bets. Despite the fear of a slowing economic recovery and inflation, earnings continue to be mostly strong among the larger companies. Stay nimble, and don’t be surprised if we see a blase day while we wait on the Fed and Congress and COP26 speeches.

The trend remains bullish, with all 3 major indices sitting at all-time highs. Keep in mind that while we are extended, long-term trading success has never come from betting on reversals. So, remember, the trend is our friend. Focus on your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. And that should include consistently taking profits when you have them and moving your stops. Watch your current positions before looking to add new trades. Trade carefully and think twice about holding through earnings.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: STX, CAN, BTBT, CAT, AMD, CSCO, LVS, CHWY, BB, ARKK, NIO, WFC, HPQ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

New Records

New Records

The bulls powered through to set more new records to end October after disappointing tech earnings results due to supply chain disruptions.  Not to be outdone, the bulls are pushing for yet another gap up open November trading on a high note.  Index charts remain quite extended, but at this point, nothing seems to dissuade this relentless bull.  However, when gapping to new records, we can not rule out the possibility of a pop and dorp pattern, so be careful chasing in at the open, making sure we see some follow-through buying. 

Overnight with the threat of stagflation, Asian markets traded mixed as the Nikkei soared 2.61%.  Across the pond, European markets kick off the month decidedly bullish across the board.  Ahead of earnings and manufacturing data, the bulls seem unstoppable this morning, pointing to a substantial gap and new records at the open. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Monday earnings calendar, we have 87 companies listed with several unconfirmed reports.  Notable reports include ADTN, ALX, ANET, CAR, BCC, CRUS, CLX, CVI, FANG, FN, BEN, GAIA, GXO, IPI, L, MCK, MOS, NXPI, ON, OTTR, PCG, PSA< O, RYAAY, SBAC, SPG, SKT, TTM, RIG, VNO, WFRD, & WMB.

News & Technicals’

Barclays CEO Jes Staley will stand down following an investigation into his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.  C.S. Venkatakrishnan (known as Venkat), currently head of global markets at Barclays, is set to take over as chief executive immediately.  The bank said the investigation had not found that Staley “saw, or was aware of, any of Mr. Epstein’s alleged crimes.”  In October, China’s factory activity contracted more than expected, shrinking for a second month, an official survey released on Sunday showed.  The latest October manufacturing data shows low production and high price inflation, economists say.  “A worrying sign is the passthrough of inflation from input prices to output prices. The input price inflation has been high for many months by now, driven by the rising commodity prices,” Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, wrote.  Treasury yields begin November higher, with the 10-year trading at 1.5938% and the 30-year rising to 1.9638% in early trading Monday morning.

Although the DIA, SPY, and QQQ continue to appear extended, the disappointing tech earnings only fanned the flames of buying, setting new record highs on Friday.  With another busy of earnings and the whispers of FOMC taper in the air, can we expect more of the same?  Futures this morning suggest yes with a gap up to more records!  That said, we can’t rule out the possibility of a pop and drop coming into play.  According to analyst’s estimates, ISM may decline slightly with the report at 10 AM Eastern.  However, with the decline in durable goods, GDP, and personal incomes not slowing the buying frenzy, a manufacturing decline might just easily get shrugged off.  We can be sure that the price action will likely remain challenging with lots of earnings-fueled gaps and whipsaws.

Trade Wisely,

Doug