Blog - Page 147 of 651 - Hit & Run Candlesticks

Bad News For FB and PINS as FANGMAN on Deck

October 25, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat in the large caps, but the QQQ gapped down a third of a percent on Friday. After indecision the first hour, all 3 major indices saw a selloff the last hour of the morning. From there was a sideways drift with a slight bullish slope. This left us with indecisive candles in all 3 major indices, a Doji in the SPY, a white Spinning Top in the DIA, and a Black Spinning Top in the QQQ. On the day, SPY lost 0.08%, DIA gained 0.23% (to close at a new all-time high close by a few cents), and the QQQ lost 0.84%. The VXX rose more than 2% to 21.70 and T2122 slipped slightly but remains in the overbought territory at 85.90. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.641% and Oil (WTI) rose almost 2% to $84.09/barrel.

Bloomberg reported Sunday that China is expecting a new Covid outbreak to get worse in the coming days. As a result, they have begun locking down some cities and regions (not to the provincial level yet). If there is any silver lining to this cloud, it is that the current outbreak is mostly in the northern provinces such as Inner Mongolia, which are not the important manufacturing or shipping regions. So, from a global supply chain perspective, this is as good as such a cloud gets.

Over the weekend in Europe, Brexit was back in the news. The British PM Johnson has been threatening to unilaterally suspend the portion of the post-Brexit trade deal related to Northern Ireland. So, on Friday the EU began internal discussions about terminating the entire trade deal in the case that Britain breaks the portion related to Northern Ireland. The two sides also began intense negotiations to avoid the break. The Pound fell half a percent on this news. If the deal were to be scrapped, it would wreak havoc with the UK economy at least for months.

This morning Bloomberg is reporting that FB has been keeping investors in the dark about an alarming new trend that is accelerating. This was part of the basis (if not the media/Congress publicized reason) behind the SEC whistleblower complaint in early October. It seems that researchers inside FB reported to executives in late March that teens (13-17) and young adults (18-29) are spending far less time and sending fewer messages in the last year. In fact, fewer teens are even signing up to the platform. The most troubling fact is that users across all age groups are creating fewer posts at a time when logically they were home more and had very little in the way of other social outlets. Obviously, these trends are a major threat to the company’s advertising business and is the driver behind the recent massive increase in FB marketing efforts.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Shanghai (+0.76%) and Shenzhen (+0.72%) led to the upside. Meanwhile, Japan (-0.71%) and Thailand (-0.56%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are also mixed as of mid-day. The FTSE (+0.38%) and DAX (+0.19%) are modestly higher, while the CAC (-0.20%) and many of the smaller exchanges are down in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward an open just on the green side of flat. The DIA is implying a +0.04% open, the SPY implies a +0.12% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.26% open to start the week. 10-year bond yields are up to 1.663% and Oil (WTI) is up a percent in early trading. Finally, contrary to reports last week, PYPL announced that it’s not interested in buying PINS at this point.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release on Monday. Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ARLP, HSBC, IBA, KMB, LII, OTIS, and QSR before the open. Then after the close, ARE, AXTA, BRO, CDNS, CR, CCK, FB, LOGI, OI, PKG, SSD, SUI, TBI, and UHS report.

As we head into a heavy earnings week, the rest of the world looks to be waiting on more direction. The bullish trend is getting some relief from over-extension and that rest may continue today as the market wants to see another earnings card before placing its next bet. So, the bulls remain in control of the trend, but biding time may be the order of the day. Remember, FB reports tonight, GOOG, AMD, and MSFT report Tuesday, and AAPL and AMZN report Wednesday…just among the FANGMAN leaders. Those reports could make major waves in the market. Be prepared.

Remember that it’s discipline and good trading rules that will win in the long run. And that includes consistently taking profits when you have them. Focus on your trading process and on managing the things you can control. Watch your current positions before looking to add new trades. Trade carefully and think twice about holding through earnings.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: APA, CLF, ARKK, EOG, DVN, HAL, BP, KRE, SAM, PFE, JNJ, ORCL, M. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

SP-500’s Turn to Touch the Sky

October 22, 2021 by Doug Campbell

With tech stocks stretching higher, it was the SP-500’s turn to touch the sky, setting a new record-extending the index into seven straight days of gains. The earnings miss from big blue briefly sent the Dow lower only to recover by the end of the day as the ravenous bulls continue to buy, buy, buy! Although the INTC and SNAP point sharply lower after disappointing earnings, the U.S. futures suggest new records may be set at today’s open. Can we extend the party as we head into the weekend? Your guess is as good as mine, but I would be more of a profit taker today rather than a buyer.

Asian markets closed mixed as Evergreade made a bond payment in the grace period to avert default. European indexes see nothing but green across the board this morning as Chinese property fears temporarily subside. Though somewhat muted, U.S. futures point to a bullish open in the Dow and SP-500, while the QQQ looks slightly lower after rallying off overnight lows.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a slightly lighter day on the Friday earnings calendar, with 37 companies listed. So let’s call it the calm before the next week’s storm of giant tech reports. Notable reports include AXP, SAM, CLF, HCA, HON, RF, SLB, STX, & VFC.

New & Technicals’

The U.K. is seeing rampant Covid infections and a slowly increasing number of hospitalizations and deaths. The warnings come just as government officials have insisted that more restrictions on public life are not yet necessary. Making matters potentially worse, the U.K. is also monitoring a mutation of the delta variant. Evergrande has remitted the funds for a required interest payment due Sept. 23 — ahead of a 30-day grace period that ends tomorrow, according to the Chinese state media Securities Times. The $83.5 million interest payment on Evergrande’s March 2022 offshore bond had been closely watched by investors ever since the indebted property developer warned twice in September that it may default. Analysts say any easing by the People’s Bank of China may not come in overt moves, significantly as the U.S. tightens monetary policy. In addition, the PBOC needs to support a slowing economy while keeping inflation in check. On Thursday, Snap reported its third-quarter earnings, missing revenue expectations after Apple’s iPhone privacy changes disrupted its advertising business. The company also warned that global supply chain interruptions and labor shortages reduce the “short-term appetite to generate additional customer demand through advertising.” The 10-year Treasury yield traded higher to 1.6846%, and the 30-year fell slightly to 2.1257% in early Friday trading.

It was the SP-500’s turn to touch the sky, setting a new record as the bulls continued to buy up tech in anticipation of earnings. Unfortuntually, disappointing results from INTC and SNAP after the bell yesterday have the stock indicated to open sharply lower this morning. Other digital ad stocks are also taking a hit this morning as a result and adding a bit of uncertainty as we move next week’s big tech earnings bonanza. That said, the ravenous bulls at this point seem undeterred, with U.S. futures pointing toward a new record open in the DIA and SPY. No price seems too high as we extend this bullish run keeping the T2122 indicator pegged in a short-term overbought condition. Today we turn our attention toward PMI with a lighter day of earnings reports. With the tech giants slated to report next week, the anticipation is very high, and it seems to me the risk is even higher with such elevated P/E ratios.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

SPY Pushed to Record On Strong Earnings

October 22, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened slightly lower on Thursday and then waffled around while the bulls found their footing. However, by mid-morning a slow, steady rally was underway that ran all the way into the close. This marked the 7^th straight higher close in the SPY and gave us a new all-time high close. DIA just missed both marks while printing a Hanging Man-type candle. Meanwhile, the QQQ printed a Bullish Engulfing candle. On the day, SPY gained 0.28%, QQQ gained 0.61%, and DIA lost 0.02%. The VXX fell 3% to 21.22 and T2122 backed off just a bit but it remains deep in the overbought territory at 92.8. 10-year bond yields rose again to 1.69% and Oil (WTI) fell almost a percent to $82.66/barrel.

During the day, cryptocurrencies took a hit as an algo ran amuck on one of the major exchanges. Binance reported that one of their institutional traders suffered an error in their algorithm. This caused massive selling which drove the price of Bitcoin from $65,000 down to $8,200 (down 87%) before immediately snapping back. So, it was similar to the stock market flash crash from 2010. At the time of Thursday morning’s crash, $40 million of bitcoin was traded on the Binance exchange.

After the close, INTC and WHR both missed on revenue but handily beat on earnings. INTC in particular decried the chip shortage for hurting its personal computer business. Meanwhile, CMG, SIVB, CE, and RHI all beat on both lines. However, SNAP missed on both lines and got crushed in post-market trading. Analysts are expecting the SNAP miss to read through to other online advertising platforms as the company specifically cited the AAPL opt-in vs opt-out privacy policy as impacting ad revenue.

So far this morning, the strong earnings continue as DHR, MMC, IQV, TSCO, KEY, DGX, IPG, SNA, VLO, LUV, AAL, and ALK have all posted beats on both the top and bottom lines. However, ALLE and T both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed in modest trading. Singapore (+0.52%), Hong Kon (+0.42%), and Thailand (+0.36%) led to the upside. Meanwhile, India (-0.35%) and Shanghai (-0.34%) paced the losers. However, in Europe markets are strongly green across the board at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.54%), DAX (+0.85%), and CAC (+1.11%) are typical of the spread across the continent, but many of the smaller exchanges are following the French lead in early-afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mixed, modest opening. The DIA is implying a +0.21% open, the SPY implies a +0.12% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.16% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are down slightly and Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am), Federal Budget Balance (2 pm), and a couple of Fed speakers (Daly at 10 am and Chair Powell at 11 am). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AIMC, AXP, ALV, CLF, DSKE, GNTX, HCA, HON, RF, ROP, SLB, STX, and VFC before the open. There are no reports after the close.

Once again the bulls have refused to yield. So far, it looks like they are going to continue that drive toward blue-sky at the open today. With that said, we certainly appear to be working on borrowed time. It is not very often that you see this many white candles and green closes in a row. So, be careful. In particular, some traders might be looking to take profits after the run and heading into the weekend. So, be prepared for a pullback or at least a rest. As mentioned in recent days, don’t be chasing the rally. Let the market (and trade) come to you and trade carefully.

The weekend is upon us. So, think about how you want your portfolio to be adjusted ahead of the weekend news cycle. Take profits, hedge, and/or move stops as appropriate. You’re not missing anything if you don’t chase new positions. Remember it takes twice as long to recover losses, so the first rule of making big money is not losing big money. It is discipline and good trading rules that will win in the long run. And that includes consistently taking profits when you have them. Focus on your trading process and on managing the things you can control (while not worrying about things you can’t influence). Finally, watch your current positions before looking to add new trades.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Friday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

6th Straight Day of Gains

October 21, 2021 by Doug Campbell

As the index stretch higher with its 6^th straight day of gains, the Dow briefly touched the rarefied air of new highs before pulling back slightly, heading into the close. Will the bulls find the inspiration to keep the pedal to the metal with a jam-packed earnings calendar, jobless number, manufacturing, and housing data? Perhaps, but the futures currently suggest a profit-taking pullback could begin. Unfortunately, price supports are substantially lower, so it could prove a bit painful for those buying late in the rally if selling picks up. As a result, expect price volatility to remain challenging.

During the night, Asian markets traded mixed with Evergrande impacts back on the minds of traders. European markets see modest losses across the board this morning as they monitor China’s rapidly deteriorating real estate situation. Currently, U.S. futures point to a lower open with a busy day of data ahead and bonds on the rise. Get ready. It could prove to be a bumpy ride this morning.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a busy day this Thursday on the earnings calendar with more than 75 companies listed. Notable reports include ABB, ALK, ALLY, AAL, T, AN, BCS, BX, BJRI, CMG, CROX, DHR, FCX, GPC, INTC, KEY, MMC, MAT, NUE, POOL, DGX, SAP, SCHN, SNAP, SNA, LUV, SIVB, TSCO, UNP, VLO, & WHR.

News and Technical’s

Heavily indebted, Evergrande was in talks earlier this month to sell part of its services unit to Hopson Development Holdings, its smaller rival. However, Hopson said Wednesday that talks fell through to purchase just over half of shares issued by Evergrande Property Services. The collapse of the Hopson deal comes as Evergrande faces the end of a 30-day grace period on Saturday for a closely watched $83 million interest payment to investors in an offshore U.S. dollar-denominated bond. As a result, China’s real estate sector has to be “substantially smaller” to keep the overall economy healthy and stable, said Li Gan, an economics professor at Texas A&M University. “We have too big of a risk in the sector. We built too much housing, so the stabilization first has to come [from] trimming the sector,” said Gan.

Additionally, Gan estimated that about 20% of China’s housing stock is left vacant, yet developers continue to build millions of new units each year. The Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday authorized Covid vaccine booster shots made by Johnson & Johnson and Moderna, another critical step in distributing the extra doses in the U.S. Americans will also be allowed to “mix and match” vaccines, getting a booster shot from a different drugmaker than the one that made their initial doses. Treasury yields traded slightly higher in early price action as the 10-year held above 1.649% and the 30-year climbed to 2.118%.

The bulls inked their 6^th straight day of gains, briefly touching a new record high with earnings enthusiasm overcomes inflation and supply chain worries. However, chart technicals are flashing a short-term overbought condition and the price action extension over the last six days of trading adds significant risk to traders entering late-stage positions. That said, we have our biggest day of earnings data so far this season that could keep the party going if the bulls continue to find inspiration. Although China is trying to convince the markets that the Evergrande situation is contained and a one-off event, real estate prices are plunging, reminiscent of the 2008 U.S.-led financial crisis. Keep an eye on this as it could quickly become a spreading market contagion. Besides a busy day of earnings, we will get the latest reading on Jobless Claims, Manufacturing data, and Existing Home Sales data to digest this morning. Currently, futures point to a lower open, but price supports and open gaps could create a painful pullback if selling picks up. So buckle up, and let’s get ready to rumble!

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Strong Q3 Earnings Parade Continues

October 21, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened essentially flat on Wednesday, but then rallied the first hour of the day. In the afternoon we got a selloff, only broken by a bullish surge during the last 5 minutes of the day. This left us with white bullish candles with upper wicks in the SPY and DIA, but a black Spinning Top candle in the QQQ. On the day, SPY gained 0.39%, DIA gained 0.44%, and QQQ lost 0.13%. The VXX fell to 21.95 and T2122 rose deeper into the overbought territory at 94.01. 10-year bond yields surged again to 1.658% and Oil (WTI) rose another 1.5% to $84.25/barrel.

After the close, the FDA cleared both the JNJ and MRNA vaccines for booster shots. At the same time, the FDA also authorized “vaccine mixing” (getting a booster from a different manufacturer than the original vaccine). This kicks the issue to the CDC, which will consider the data from JNJ and MRNA today and vote as soon as Friday. While it is expected the CDC will authorize booster shots of the vaccines to be given to elderly and at-risk patients 6 months after the patient’s original vaccination, who qualifies for an FDA-approved vaccine is totally at their discretion.

Also after the close, TSLA posted record revenue and earnings, beating on both lines. Among the other majors reporting last evening CSX, CCI, PPG, and LSTR all reported beats on both lines. However, IBM missed on both lines, and DFS missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side. Japan (-1.87%) was a huge outlier to the downside while Malaysia (-0.92%), India (-0.48%), and Hong Kong (-0.45%) were the non-outlier leaders to the downside. Thailand (+0.36%) and Shanghai (+0.22%) were the only appreciable winners on the day. In Europe, only Amsterdam is positive as the rest of the region is in the red at mid-day. The FTSE (-0.52%), DAX (-0.02%), and CAC (-0.40%) are typical of the spread across the continent in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointing toward a down open. The SIA is implying a -0.26% open, the SPY implies a -0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.18% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are up just slightly and Oil is off about three-quarters of a percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Weekly Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am), Sept. Existing Home Sales (10 am), and a couple of Fed speakers (Waller at 9 am and Williams at 9 pm). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ABB, ALK, ALLE, ALLY, AAL, T, AN, BX, CROX, DHR, DOW, EEFT, FAF, FCX, GPC, HRI, IPG, IQV, KEY, MMC, NUE, NVR, POOL, DGX, RCI, SAP, SCHN, SNA, SON, LUV, TSCO, TPH, TRN, UNP, and VLO before the open. Then after the close, SAM, CSL, CE, CMG, INTC, MAT, OLN, PBCT, RHI, SNAP, SIVB, USX, WRB, WAL, and WHR report.

We didn’t really see a pullback on Wednesday, but after the strong rally of the 5 days preceding it, the market is certainly due at least a rest. So, as mentioned in recent days, don’t be chasing the rally. Let the market (and trade) come to you. Trade carefully, and be prepared for a potential rest day.

Remember, you’re not missing anything, so don’t chase. It’s discipline and good trading rules that will win in the long run. And that includes consistently taking profits when you have them. So, don’t let greed get the better of you. Focus on your trading process and on managing the things you can control (while not worrying about things you can’t influence). Finally, watch your current positions before looking to add new trades.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DIDI, BTCM, M, BEKE, NOK, REAL, ROKU, FCEL, BB, OXY. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Energized by Earnings

October 20, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Energized by earnings, the bulls continue to march toward resistance highs and possible new records if the momentum is maintained. That said, there is a substantial growing risk to traders with unfilled gaps left behind and the rapid extension seen in the index charts. Moreover, as energy prices continue to surge, adding to inflationary concerns and the supply chain bottlenecks clouding the path forward, earnings reports will have a lot to overcome. That said, anything is possible during the highly emotional earning season. So study the risks carefully and trade wisely as the silly season ramps up to include the tech giants.

Overnight Asian markets traded mixed with Hong Kong, once again leading the way as Chinese tech surged. This morning European markets seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach with muted gains and losses as they ponder global market sentiment. With a ramp-up in earnings reports and a pending petroleum number, U.S. futures point to a flat open at the time of writing this report.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We rap up again today with more than 60 companies listed on the calendar. Notable reports include TSLA, ABT, ANTM, ASML, BKR, BIIB, CP, CFG, CMA, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, IBM, LRCX, MMLP, NDAQ, NEE, NEP, PPG, SLG, THC, TZOO, & VZ.

News & Technicals’

Netflix gained 4.4 million new subscribers in the third quarter, but only 70,000 of them came from the U.S. and Canada. The streaming service has added fewer than 1 million new subscribers from the U.S. and Canada in the past 12 months. Netflix said 142 million subscribers have watched at least two minutes of its new hit “Squid Game.” In August, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out five reasons supporting his view that the current run of high inflation will go away. Powell has plenty of time to be correct, and many professional economists also hold the “transitory” position. However, expectations for inflation among consumers and investors, as well as from some Fed officials, continue to rise. This year, supply chains everywhere have been hit by massive disruptions from container shortages to floods and Covid infections, setting off port closures. “Suddenly retailers and manufacturers are overordering because of these supply chain issues, and that’s just leading to essentially an even worse scenario,” Jonathan Savoir, CEO of supply chain technology firm Quincus told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday. In addition, the energy crises in mainland China and Europe are the latest to roil the shipping industry. The 10-year Treasury yield topped the highest point since mid-May, rising to 1.67% late Tuesday night and trading at 1.68% early Wednesday morning. The 30-year bonds also rose in early trading to 2.02%.

Though the bulls continue to matain control energized by earnings, we also have a substantial extension in the charts that create a signifiant risk. With the T2122 indicator in a short-term overbought condition, traders should be on the lookout for potential consolidation or even a profit-taking pullback. In addition, the index charts have several unfilled gaps in the recent rally. Surging energy prices continue to add pressure on consumers and the inflationary impacts on everything bought or sold. Supply chain bottlenecks are also a significant concern as we head into the holiday season as worries of empty shelves add additional pricing pressures. Recently the IMF downgraded growth expectations with a warning of global stagflation. Of course, anything is possible during earnings season, and with emotions running, hot traders should expect challenging price volatility to stick around in the weeks ahead.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bulls Are Loving Q3 Earnings So Far

October 20, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher Tuesday on more good earnings and then drifted higher in the morning. Stocks traded sideways in a tight range most of the afternoon before getting volatile the last couple of hours of the day. The good news for the bulls was that we closed on an upswing, which took us out near the highs in all 3 major indices. This left us with a strong, white gap-up candle in all 3 of those markets. On the day, SPY gained 0.76%, DIA gained 0.55%, and QQQ gained 0.76%. The VXX fell a percent to 22.17 and T2122 climbed up into the bottom of the overbought territory. 10-year bond yield spiked to 1.639% and Oil (WTI) gained half of a percent to $82.89/barrel.

The first Bitcoin-related ETF, BITO, which tracks CME Bitcoin futures began trading Tuesday. Trading was heavy early in the session but then slowed significantly after the early pop. BITO closed up 4.8% on the day. However, the debut did not go off without a hitch since the Blue Ocean trading system allowed overnight traders to purchase the ETF hours before it officially began trading on the NYSE.

After hours, strong earnings continued as NFLX posted a strong beat on earnings on revenue that was in line with estimates. It also reported better than expected new subscriber growth. UAL reported a smaller than expected loss and beat on the revenue line while reporting that travel is rebounding. At the same time, ISRG beat on both lines.

This morning healthcare is looking good as both ABT, BIIB, and ANTM beat on both lines. The banking space also continues its strong showing with regionals CMA, CFG, FHN, and MTB all reporting beats on both earnings and revenue. However, the oil patch may be under pressure as services provider BKR missed badly on both lines, and NEE beat on earnings while missing on revenue. VZ also beat on earnings but missed on revenue. Meanwhile, NDAQ reported beats on both lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again on modest moves. Hong Kong (+1.35%) was a clear outlier to the upside and India (-0.83%) was an outlier to the downside. Still, most exchanges in the region were flat or moved less than half of a percent in either direction. In Europe, markets are mixed but leaning toward the green side on modest moves at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.07%), DAX (+0.12%), and CAC (+0.03%) lead the volume but are among the smallest movers in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.01% open, the SPY implies an unchanged open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.08% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are down slightly and Oil (WTI) is down over a percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), Fed Beige Book (2 pm), and a Fed speaker (Quarles at 1 pm). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ABT, ANTM, ASML, BKR, BIIB, CP, CFG, CMA, DB, FHN, KNX, LAD, MTB, MSM, NDAQ, NEE, NTRS, BPOP, SCL, UNF, VZ, WSO, and WGO. Then after the close, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, GGG, HPQ, IBM, KALU, KMI, LRCX, LSTR, LVS, OMF, PPG, RUSHA, SEIC, FTI, THC, TSLA, UFPI, and VMI report.

After a strong rally the last 4 days, which included 3 gaps higher, stocks seem to be looking to rest at the open Wednesday. Once again, it has been the tech big dogs that have been leading us higher recently (with most of their earnings coming in the next week). However, this strong rally is a bit extended and markets may think it’s time to let the moving averages catch up. We are nearing the all-time highs in the major indices again, but there is still some resistance to work through. So, trade carefully, and be prepared for a potential rest day.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GRPN, NUGT, SKIN, TME, FIS, PLBY, IQ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Vastly Improved but Risky

October 19, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The technical picture of the indexes has vastly improved in just five trading days, but it has also created a significant risk to retail traders. For example, yesterday’s 250 point whipsaw in the Dow demonstrated the market sensitivity to a single downgrade of Disney. Moreover, earnings season is notoriously volatile, and with prices spiking, it also creates significant risk if we see some disappointing results. Finally, it would be wise to keep in mind before rushing into already elevated stocks that inflation, high energy prices, and supply chain impacts could create substantial earnings uncertainties. So plan your risk carefully!

Overnight Asian markets were mixed but mostly higher, with Hong Kong leading the bullishness up 1.49%. European markets trade with modest gains across the board this morning, monitoring earnings results. Ahead of the earnings results and housing numbers, the premaket pump is well underway, suggesting a gap-up opening as we stretch out from recent lows. Expect considerable price volatility as we react to all the data.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The earnings begin to ramp up today, with our first big tech reports beginning this afternoon. Notable reports include JNJ, NFLX, BK, CNI, FITB, HAL, IBKR, ISRG, KSU, OMC, PM, PG, SYF, TRV, UAL, & WDFC.

New & Technicals’

When the Covid-19 pandemic swept the globe in 2020, the U.K. was hit hard, reporting some of the highest cases numbers and fatalities in Europe. However, the U.K.’s speedy vaccination rollout was widely praised and helped to bring cases under control. Now the situation is looking dramatically different, with the country recording close to 50,000 new Covid cases a day — giving it one of the worst daily infection rates in the world. Worries about Evergrande’s ability to repay its debt and a total of $300 billion in liabilities have put global investors on edge about potential spillover into the rest of China’s real estate industry and economy. A closer look at Evergrande revealed a company with many of the same problems as others in the Chinese property sector but didn’t act as quickly to respond to government rules aimed at resolving those issues. The company failed to address tighter regulation on debt levels and was the biggest Chinese real estate issuer of overseas high-yield bonds. Wall Street’s primary regulator released its highly anticipated report on the GameStop mania on Monday. The SEC said online brokerages, enticed to increase revenue through payment for order flow, are turning stock-trading into a game to encourage retail investors’ activity. “Payment for order flow and the incentives it creates may cause broker-dealers to find novel ways to increase customer trading, including through the use of digital engagement practices,” the agency said.

The vastly improved technical picture of indexes has inspired considerable speculation buying ahead of big tech reports. Now the big question is, can they produce sufficient results to support the elevated stock prices? The danger for traders is the recent steep rise in prices places a lot of downside risk should the earnings happen to disappoint. The DIA is more than 1200 points off the low in just five trading days, and the SP-500 is nearing 200 points. Considering the volatility of the current price action creates a siginifiant risk to traders rushing in with the fear of missing out. So plan your risk carefully, and make sure you plan your trades carefully. Remember inflation, high energy prices, supply chain issues, consumer sentiment, as well as the beginning of the Fed taper could make for uncertain earnings results.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Another Big Week of Earning Ahead

October 18, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Friday, all the reporting companies crushed their earnings. Then Retail Sales came in stronger than expected. As a result, stocks gapped about half of a percent higher at the open. After a little morning chop, prices drifted higher the rest of the day, closing not far off the highs. This left us with gap-up white candles that closed near the top of the candle. On the day, DIA gained 1.07%, SPY gained 0.76%, and QQQ gained 0.63%. The VXX was flat at 22.79 and T2122 fell but remained in the overbought territory at 84.31. 10-year bond yields spiked again to 1.574% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.66% to $82.66.

In an interesting lesson for changing future energy markets, German electric prices plunged overnight. The drop was not due to high coal inventories or natural gas supplies. No, this drop comes on weather forecasts. In particular, forecasters are calling for record wind across Germany later in the week. And the logic goes that record winds mean record wind-powered electrical production.

Toyota has announced it will build a new battery plant in the US. This is part of the company’s modest $3.4 billion investment in electric vehicles in the US over the next 9 years. However, the effort should result in about 1,800 jobs with production of electric vehicles beginning sometime in 2025. The company has also launched a major lobbying effort designed to get US lawmakers to provide a $4,500 tax credit for US taxpayers who buy a union-made electric vehicle.

AAPL is holding another product launch event today at 1 pm Eastern. This event will announce an all-Arm processor lineup (replacing the last products with INTC CPUs).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on modest trading. Shenzhen (-0.46%) and Taiwan (-0.45%) led to the downside. Meanwhile. India (+0.76%) and Malaysia (+0.48%) led to the upside. The rest of the region showed small moves in either direction. In Europe, prices are mostly down at mid-day, with the notable exceptions of Norway (+1.02%). The FTSE (-0.23%), DAX (-0.57%), and CAC (-0.76%) are typical of the spread in the continent in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a lower open. The DIA is implying a -0.26% open, the SPY implying a -0.24% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.18% open at this hour. The Dollar is starting the week slightly higher, but 10-year bond yields have spiked back up to 1.602% and Oil is up 1.6% to $83.58/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Monday includes Sept. Industrial Production (9:15 am), Federal Budget Balance (2 pm), and August TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (4 pm). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to ACI and STT before the open. Then after the close, STLD and ZION report.

The bears are looking to start the week by pushing against the 3-day rally that ended last week. However, most eyes are on major earnings reports coming later in the week. So far, we’ve seen nothing but very strong earnings reported. However, to be fair, most of those were in the “big bank” space. This week will be another test as another major wave of reports hits the wire. Remember that we now have a short-term bullish trend in place, having confirmed with a higher -high on Friday. However, there is still some resistance above to work through. So, trade carefully, and be prepared for volatility to continue.

Focus on your trading process and on managing those things you can control (while not worrying about things you can’t influence). Watch your current positions before looking to add new trades. Remember, you’re not missing anything, so don’t chase. It’s discipline and good trading rules that will win in the long run. That includes consistently take profits when you have them. So, don’t let greed get the better of you.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BIDU, RLX, RIG, FCEL, KWEB, NEM, PLUG, PUBM, AG, IP, GDX, AEM, BEKE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Better than Expected Earnings

October 15, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The bulls breathed a sigh of relief on better than expected earnings and economic data. Futures are already pushing higher in the premarket in anticipation that GS and PNC will keep good reports coming. That said, we will have to keep an eye on Retail Sales numbers that economists expect to come in negative and could dampen bullish energy. So be careful rushing in with a fear of missing out because we have about the perfect setup for a pop and drop if retail numbers disappoint.

Asian markets finished the week on a bullish note, closing green across the board. European markets share the same sentiment this morning, with modest gains across the board fueled by earnings results. Ahead of market-moving earnings and economic U.S. futures point to a bullish open that will gap the DIA and SPY above their 50-day averages.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have 19 companies listed on the earnings calendar, with just eight confirmed. Notable reports include GS, JBHT, PLD, PNC, & TFC.

News & Technicals’

On Friday, the Biden administration unveiled a government-wide plan to address what he says is a systemic threat climate change poses to all sectors of the economy. The roadmap accounts for how climate change will impact the companies people are invested in and aims to protect the savings of American families with retirement plans. Additionally, his plan also identifies how agencies can strengthen infrastructure resilience in response to worsening climate disasters. A key FDA advisory committee unanimously recommended Thursday giving booster shots of Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine to people ages 65 and older and other vulnerable Americans. The endorsement is a crucial step before the U.S. can start giving third shots to some of the millions of Americans who originally received Moderna’s vaccine. Bitcoin surged as high as $59,920, notching its highest level since May. 10, but struggled to break above the $60,000 mark. Traders are optimistic about the SEC’s chances of giving the green light to the first bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund. This morning, Treasury yields rose in early trading, with the 10-year climbing to 1.544% and the 30-year rising 2.047%.

The bulls found more than enough inspiration to rally on better than expected earnings and economic data. The DIA and SPY tested their 50-day averages as resistance through the QQQ lagged somewhat behind. The big winner of the day was the underdog index of IWM, with financials and oil sector stocks working together bullishly. With earnings from GS and PNC this morning, futures are pumping up the premarket in anticipation of additional bullish results. However, this morning, we do a possible stumbling block with the Retail Sales report that consenses expects to come in slightly negative. The Consumer Sentiment reading should also be interesting to keep an eye on it see in inflationary pressures have dampened spending spirits. Though it was nice to see the rally, remember the real test is when it pulls back to test the new support levels. That said, be careful chasing stocks already extended in case a pullback occurs.

Trade Wisely,

Doug