Wednesday saw the market open flattish and meander back and for the around the gap.  SPY opened 0.08% higher, DIA opened 0.12% higher, and QQQ opened 0.09% lower.  As mentioned, after that open, all three major index ETFs meandered back and forth below and above that initial “gap” all day. This action gave us indecisive, Spinning Top or Doji-like candles in all three, which all also remain above their T-line (8ema). This all happened on below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were red with Basic Materials -1.79%) and Healthcare (-1.59%) out in front leading the market lower.  On the other side, Technology (-0.03%) and Consumer Defensive (-0.28%) held up much better than the other sectors. At the same time, SPY lost 0.33%, DIA lost 0.82%, and QQQ lost 0.18%.  VXX fell slightly to close at 44.52 and T2122 dropped all the way down into the lower half of its mid-range to close at 40.64.  Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields spiked again to 4.426% while Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat to close at $68.03 per barrel.  So, Tuesday gave us a morning selloff followed by a more modest bounce and then a drift lower the last hour of the day.  For the first time in five days, none of the major index ETFs printed a new all-time high.  With that said, we still look a little toppy with all three major ETFs well above their T-line (8ema).

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included October Core CPI (Month-on-Month), which came in exactly as expected at +0.3% (compared to a forecast and September reading of +0.3%).  On an annualized basis, October Core CPI (Year-on-Year) also came in just as expected at +3.3% (versus a forecast and September value of +3.3%).  At the same time, the headline October CPI (month-on-month) was also as anticipated at +0.2% (compared to a forecast and September reading of +0.2%).  On an annualized basis, October CPI (Year-on-Year) was +2.6% (versus a forecast of +2.6% and the September reading of +2.4%).  Later, the October Federal Budget Balance showed a significantly higher than expected deficit of $257.0 billion (compared to the $226.4 billion forecast and far higher than the September $64.0 billion shortfall).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a unexpected drawdown of 0.777 million barrels (versus a predicted 1-million-barrel increase and the previous week’s 3.132-million-barrel increase).

In Fed news, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari told Bloomberg, “I’ve got confidence about that (inflation heading down toward 2%), but we need to wait.”  He continued, “We’ve got another month or six weeks of data to analyze before we make any (more rate cut) decisions.” Later, St. Louis Fed President Musalem told a Memphis Economic conference that the Fed is in the “last mile” of the inflation fight and the FOMC can now afford to be deliberate.  Musalem said, “In my baseline scenario, based on current information, I expect inflation to converge toward 2% over the medium term … but recent information suggests to me that the risk of inflation ceasing to converge toward 2%, or moving higher, has risen, while the risk of an unwelcome deterioration in the labor market has remained unchanged or possibly fallen.” 

Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Schmid expressed growing confidence that inflation is headed back to 2%.  Schmid said his confidence is “based in part on signs that both labor and product markets have come into better balance in recent months.”  He continued, “While now is the time to begin dialing back the restrictiveness of monetary policy, it remains to be seen how much further interest rates will decline or where they might eventually settle.”  Speaking about the deficit, Schmid said, “As an optimist, my hope is that productivity growth can outrun both demographics and debt … But as a central banker, I will not let my enthusiasm get ahead of the data or my commitment to the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment.”  (In other words, he basically ducked the question.) At the same time, Dallas Fed President Logan said, “I anticipate the FOMC will most likely need more rate cuts to finish the journey” (meaning bringing inflation down to 2%). 

After the close, BZH, CSCO, HI, SARO, and TTEK reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, AGRO and NU missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, BV, GPCR, and HP beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned toward the red with four exchanges above break-even and eight below-water.  Shenzhen (-2.83%) Hong Kong (-1.96%), and Shanghai (-1.73%) were by far the biggest movers. In Europe, with the exception of Athens (-0.3%) we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.08%), DAX (+1.32%) and FTSE (+0.40%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the morning.  DIA implies a +0.25% open, the SPY is implying a +0.13% open, and QQQ implies a +0.07% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.443% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.70% to $68.91 per barrel in early trading.

There is major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, October Core PPI, and October PPI (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (11 a.m.), and Fed’s Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed Chair Powell (3 p.m.) and Fed member Williams (4:15 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AAP, AZUL, BILI, EFXT, JD, NTES, NICE, NOMD, SBH, TLN, DIS, and ZK.  Then, after the close, AMAT, GLOB, and POST report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, Ny Empire State Mfg. Index, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, September Retail Inventories are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday BABA and SPB report.

So far this morning, BN, EXFT, JD, NTES, NICE, SIEGY, and have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, NOMD, SBH, DIS, and ZK all missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, BILI beat on the revenue line while missing on earnings.  However, AAP missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, markets seem tepid to modestly bullish and perhaps trying to put in a bottom to their three-day pullback.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket slightly higher.  Since that point they have put in small candles with SPY and QQQ printing small, Doji-like candles and DIA giving us a small, white, Marubozu candle.  All three remain above their T-line (8ema).  So, the short, mid-term, and long-term trends remain bullish. In terms of over extension, none of the SPY, DIA, or QQQ are stretched above their T-lines and the T2122 indicator is now back in the lower half of its mid-range.  So, there is room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the green this morning.  AMD (+0.99%) is the biggest price mover (on overnight news of a 4% global layoff).  Meanwhile, TSLA (-0.47% on $280 million traded) is the leader in dollar-volume traded. (Again, this is the post-Trump win norm, but NVDA had been in that leader spot for 18 months prior to the election.) 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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