The market couldn’t make up its mind on Friday.  The session started with a 0.40% gap higher in the SPY, a 0.17% gap up in the DIA, and a 0.66% gap higher in the QQQ.  At that point, the SPY began an all-day rollercoaster ride going back and forth between the open and the Thursday close.  Meanwhile, DIA did essentially the same thing, just meandering above the open and below the prior close in the process.  For its part, QQQ immediately sold off to recross its opening gap meandered around that prior close level until 3 pm, and then sold off again to go out on the lows.  This action gave us black-bodied near Marubozu, inside day candle in the SPY.  At the same time, DIA printed a black-bodied Spinning Top inside day candle, and QQQ just gave us a black-bodied candle with small wicks on both ends.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green with Utilities (+1.12%) out front leading the way higher while Industrials (-0.39%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was flat +0.00%, DIA lost 0.08%, and QQQ lost 0.30%.  The VXX fell 1.21% to 23.70 and T2122 fell again but remains in the overbought territory at 83.71.  10-year bond yields fell a bit to 3.837% while Oil (WTI) was up 1.56% to close at $76.83 per barrel.  So, Friday was basically a drift day where traders were not taking too many new positions in front of the weekend and the Fed decisions on Wednesday.  The two large-cap index ETFs remain above their T-line (8ema) and QQQ failed a retest to stay below its own T-line for the second day in a row.  This all happened on less-than-average volume in all three of the market index ETFs.

There was no major economic news on Friday and with the FOMC meeting this week, all the Fed members were in their “Quiet Period.”  

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, ISRG said Friday that demand for robot-assisted bariatric surgery (which often use the company’s products) has fallen since effective obesity drugs have hit the market.  (NVO already has an obesity drug approved in the US while LLY expects their own drug to be approved in the next few months.  Elsewhere, AMZN announced Friday that it is building a $120 million facility at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida for the processing of the company’s Kuiper internet satellites.  After the close, the Wall Street Journal reported that SPOT plans to raise the price of its ad-free premium plan in the US.  Also after the close, AAL announced it has raised its offer to pilots by $1 billion, matching the deal UAL agreed with its own pilots.  AAL pilots are set to begin voting on the now-revised deal today. Meanwhile, late Friday it was reported that DIS has held preliminary talks with three major sports leagues (NFL, NBA, and MLB) as part of its effort to create a strategic partnership while selling off part of ESPN.  (DIS owns 80% of ESPN with the other 20% owned by the private firm Hearst Communications.) On Sunday, YELL announced it has averted a strike by 22,000 Teamster truckers by backing down and agreeing to pay the $50 million it had already owed for worker benefits and pension deposits.

In stock legal and regulatory news, on Friday, Republican members of the US House of Representatives announced two committees have begun an investigation into the partnership between F and Chinese battery maker CATL.  Elsewhere, STLA lost its bid to block an Indian knock-off of its Jeep from Mahindra for selling in the US.  A judge in the Eastern District of MI ruled the nearly jeep-identical 2018 and 2019 models of the Roxor vehicle are no longer for sale and the post-2020 versions are unique enough to be sold in the US.  Later, the US 5^th Circuit Court of Appeals has granted a request from TSLA that all 16 judges reconsider an earlier decision made by three of them. The three originally ruled that CEO Elon Musk had violated federal labor law by tweeting that employees who joined a union would lose their stock options.  Meanwhile, BAH agreed to pay $377.4 million to settle its violation of US law when it billed the US government for international (non-US) and unrelated expenses.  After the close, a DE judge blocked a proposed settlement that would have allowed AMC to issue more shares, citing that the settlement would impact preferred shareholders who were not party to the settlement.

So far this morning, PHG and RYAAY reported beat to both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, DPZ missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  Japan (+1.23%), Malaysia (+0.79%), and South Korea (+0.72%) paced the gainers.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-2.13%), Shenzhen (-0.58%), and India (-0.37%) led the slightly more plentiful losers on the day.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape on modest moves at midday.  The CAC (-0.45%), DAX (+0.04%), and FTSE (-0.17%) lead on volume and are typical of early afternoon trading.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.31% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 3.794% and Oil (WTI) is up half of a percent to $77.49 per barrel in early trading.

There major economics news scheduled for Monday are limited to Preliminary Manufacturing PMI and Preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI (both at 9:45 am), and Preliminary Services PMI (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell are limited to DPZ, PHG, and RYAAY.  Then, after the close, ARE, BRO, CADE, CDNS, CHX, CLF, CCK, FFIV, LBTYA, LOGI, NXPI, PKG, RRC, SSD, and WHR report.     

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and the API Weekly Crude Stocks report.  Then Wednesday, Building Permits, June New Home Sales, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, the Fed Rate Decision, Fed Statement, and FOMC Press Conference are delivered.  On Thursday, we get June Durable Goods Orders, Preliminary Q2 GSP, Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index, Preliminary June Goods Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary June Retail Inventories, June Pending Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, June Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports, on Tuesday, MMM, ALK, ACI, HOUS, ADM, ARCC, ABG, AVY, BIIB, GLW, DHR, DOV, DOW, FELE, GEHC, GE, GM, HRI, HUBB, IVZ, KMB, LW, LTH, MCO, MSCI, NEE, NUE, PCAR, PII, PHM, RTX, ST, SHW, SPOT, TRU, VZ, XRX, GOOGL, ASH, CALM, CNI, CB, CSGP, CR, WIRE, ENVA, EQT, HA, KALU, MTDR, MSFT, NBR, NEX, RNR, RHI, RUSHA, SNAP, TDOC, TXN, UHS, V, WD, and WM.  Then Wednesday, we hear from AMG, ALKS, ALLE, APH, T, ADP, BA, BOKF, GIB, CHKP, CME, KO, CSTM, CPG, EQNR, EEFT, EVR, FTV, GD, GPI, HES, HLT, LAD, MHO, EDU, ODFL, OMF, OTIS, OC, PAG, BPOP, PRG, DGX, RCI, RES, RPM, R, SLGN, STLA, SCL, TMHC, TEL, TDY, TMO, TNL, UNP, UMC, WNC, AEM, ALGN, AWK, AMP, NLY, AR, ACGL, ASGN, AGR, CSL, CLS, CCS, CMG, CHDN, CMPR, FIX, EBAY, EW, ESI, FLEX, GFL, GL, GGG, HP, ICLR, IEX, INVH, LHX, LRCX, LSTR, MAT, META, MEOH, MAA, MOH, MYRG, NGD, NOV, ORLY, OII, PPC, PLXS, PTC, RJF, ROL, STX, SEIC, STC, TER, TNET, TYL, URI, VMI, VICI, WFG, and WU.  On Thursday, AOS, ABBV, AGCO, AEP, AMT, MT, ARCH, AMBP, AVNT, BAX, BSX, BFH, BMY, BC, CRS, CARR, CBRE, CX, CVE, CNP, CMS, CMCSA, CROX, CFR, DTE, EXP, EME, FAF, FCFS, FSV, FMX, FCN, GTX, GOL, GVA, HOG, HCA, HSY, HTZ, HON, IP, KBR, KDP, KEX, LH, LAZ, LII, LECO, LIN, LKQ, MDC, MLM, MAS, MA, MCD, NYCB, NSC, NOC, ORI, OPCH, PATK, PTEN, BTU, PNR, PCG, RS, RCL, SPGI, SHEL, SAH, LUV, SRCL, STM, FTI, TECK, TXT, TTE, TSCO, TPH, VLO, VLY, GWW, WAB, WST, WEX, WTW, XEL, ACHC, AB, ALSN, ATR, AJG, BZH, SAM, BYD, CP, CC, CINF, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EIX, ENPH, EQR, ERIE, FSLR, F, FBIN, HIG, HUBG, INTC, JNPR, KLAC, LYV, LPLA, MATW, MTH, MTD, MTX, MHK, MDLZ, OLN, OVV, PFG, ROKU, SKX, SKYW, SSNC, TMUS, TXRH, X, VALE, and WY report. Finally, on Friday, we hear from AON, ARCB, AZN, AVTR, ITCL, BAH, CNC, GTLS, CHTR, CVX, CHD, CNHI, CL, DAN, XOM, BEN, GNTX, IMO, NWL, NMRK, NVT, POR, PG, SAIA, SNY, TROW, TRP, and HE.

In miscellaneous news, Reuters reported Friday that investors put $3.6 billion in fresh money into hedge funds during Q2.  This brought the industry’s net inflow to $12.64 billion for the year after investors took out $55.4 billion in 2022.  Equity funds led the Q2 inflow list with a $2.8 billion in net increase in money invested.  Elsewhere, over the weekend more than 80 million Americans had to deal with temperatures in excess of 105 degrees.  Meanwhile, Florida Gov. DeSantis made a move in his “culture war” by ordering an investigation into BUD.  DeSantis said he will have his people try to prove that a BUD marketing decision backfired and this failure amounted to a management breach of an obligation to shareholders (some of which who live in Florida).  I guess the Governor would prefer all public company decisions be put to a shareholder vote before execution…at least the decisions with which he disagrees.  He also replied to a reporter’s question by saying “they” were looking into a suit against DIS for the same reason (but no rationale was announced, so that one may just be talking).  Finally, the CME Fedwatch Tool tells us that the probabilities (based on Fed Futures) are a staggering 99.8% chance of a quarter-point hike on Wednesday. (It is fairly rare to see everybody…not just most or even the vast majority, but everybody…betting on the same outcome.)

With that background, it looks like markets are working on more small, inside candles in the premarket. The SPY and DIA are seeming to continue their tight consolidation in an uptrend. Meanwhile, QQQ is looking to consolidate in its modest pullback of an uptrend. The two large-cap index ETFs are above their T-lines (8ema) while QQQ is just below its T-line. As far as extension goes, none of the major index ETFs are far away from their T-line, but the T2122 indicator remains inside the bottom of the overbought region. So, there is room to run in either direction. Bear in mind that markets can stay extended longer than we can stay solvent predicting the reversion to the mean, especially using an indicator like T2122. Also, with this being a Fed week and heavy with major earnings, do not be surprised if we see both drifting and volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service