The Bears remained in control all day long Friday as the 3 major indices sold off steadily the entire session.  This gave us huge, ugly, black candles across the board.  However, it also saw all 3 of those indices pull far away from their T-lines. So, they are extended. On the day, SPY lost 2.74%, DIA lost 2.71%, and QQQ lost 2.62%.  The VXX rose more than 5% to 26.15 and T2122 dropped well into the oversold territory to 6.63.  10-year bond yields close down slightly to 2.904% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 2% to $101.75/barrel. 

On the Fed watch, on Friday Cleveland Fed President Mester said that she is in favor of raising rates 50-basis-points in May and perhaps doing this a few times this year.  She called her preferred approach “methodical.” However, she also said she would not go further than half a percent, saying she was not in favor of 75-basis-point moves to shock the economy as a way to slow inflation.  Finally, she said she’d like to see the Fed Funds Rate reach 2.5% by year-end, which she felt would be neutral. This opinion splits the “year-end neutral rate” calls by Bullard (3.5%), Bostic (1.75%), and Evans (2.25%) from earlier last week.

On Sunday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the board of TWTR is taking another look at Elon Musk’s $43 billion takeover bid.  The paper reported that the company is more likely to negotiate since he announced he had raised 3.5 billion more in funding than his initial bid.  Since Musk made the bid, TWTR has risen more than one percent. TWTR is up 4.5% in premarket on the Sunday news. Probably, but not necessarily unrelated to this story, Musk received 25.3 million TSLA stock options last week (worth about $23 billion considering the exercise price) and will receive another TSLA 8.4 million options this week (as the last traunch of his 2018 compensation package).  So, if he had the cash to pay the taxes, he could exercise and sell those options for enough to pay cash for 75% of his TWTR bid just from those proceeds, if he chose to do so.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Today another AMZN facility in NY will be voting on unionizing.  Elsewhere, the Shanghai area reported a record number of Covid deaths on Sunday (still only 40). The local provincial government announced 9 new ways it plans to get to “zero covid” by adding more restrictions starting this week.  However, AAPL’s largest iPhone production facility, which is located in the city (run by supplier Foxconn) remains open despite the region’s Covid lockdown.  Foxconn received special permission to keep their employees living on-site by having their employees designated “key employees” for the region.

Major economic news later this week includes Mar. Durable Goods Orders, Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, Mar. New Home Sales on Tuesday.  Then on Wednesday, we get Mar. Trade Balance, Retail Inventories, Mar. Pending Home Sales, and Crude Oil Inventories.  On Thursday we see Q1 GDP and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.  Finally, on Friday we get Mar. PCE Price Index, Q1 Employment Cost, Mar. Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, and Mich. Consumer Sentiment.

Major Earnings coming later this week include MMM, GOOG, ADM, AVY, COF, CMG, GLW, FFIV, GE, GM, JNPR, MSFT, MDLZ, PEP, RTX, SHW, TXN, UPS, VLO, V, and WM on Tuesday.  Then Wednesday we get ADP, AFL, AMGN, BA, BSX, DFS, F, GD, HES, HUM, KHC, LVS, FB, NSC, PYPL, QCOM, RJF, STX, TMUS, TDY, URI, and WAB. On Thursday, MO, AMZN, AEP, AAPL, BIDU, BAX, CAT, CE, CHD, CMCSA, DPZ, EMN, LLY, GILD, HIG, HSY, IP, IRM, KDP, KLAC, MA, MCD, NOC, PHM, SO, SWK, TROW, TXT, TMO, VRSN, and GWW report.  Finally, on Friday we get reports from ABBV, AZN, BMY, CBOE, CHTR, CVX, CL, XOM, HON, LHX, LYB, NWL, PSX, and WY.

Overnight, the Asian markets were deeply red across the board.  China in particular got crushed by the covid news as Shenzhen (-6.08%), Shanghai (-5.13%), Hong Kong (-3.73%), and Taiwan (-2.37%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see the same thing taking shape, with the lone outlier of Greece (+0.96%), at mid-day.  The FTSE (-2.07%), DAX (-1.68%), and CAC (-2.16%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trading despite the market-friendly win in the French Presidential election Sunday by Macron.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap lower at the start of the day.  The DIA implies a -0.84% open, the SPY is implying a -0.97% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.06% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down sharply to 2.831% and Oil (WTI) is off more than 4% to $97.81/barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release on Monday.  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ATVI, KO, LII, and OTIS before the open.  Then after the close, AMP, AXTA, BRO, CDNS, CR, CCK, OI, PKG, SBAC, UHS, WRB, WHR, and ZION report.

So far this morning, KO, LII, as well as a number of ADRs (RHHBY, HYMTF, HYMLY, CWQXY) have all reported beating the estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Meanwhile, OTIS has missed on revenue while beating on earnings. 

The fear of spreading covid disease and restrictions hitting the global economy (as mentioned here last week) is rocking the boat for the bulls and giving the bears strength to follow through on a down month for markets. So, US Markets are looking like they will follow Asia and Europe lower at least early today. Remember that both intraday volatility and day-to-day chop have been the norm for a while now. So, respect that fact and continue to be cautious. Don’t be in a hurry to chase gaps lower in the first few minutes of the day. Swing trading is not about catching every cent of a move. It’s about taking your slice out of the middle of a swing.

Focus on the process and enjoy yourself. Stick with your trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NXPI, C, LEN, ORCL, INTC, MSFT, LOW, EBAY, SHW, RWM, SDS, SQQQ, UVXY, TWTR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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