Stocks gapped about 1% higher at the open Tuesday off optimism from Russia saying they are essentially ending attacks on Kyiv and Chernihiv (Northern Ukraine cities).  However, prices then went on a roller-coaster ride that hit the lows at about 10:15 am and again at 12:30 pm before going on a rally that lasted all afternoon and closing not far from the highs.  This left us with very indecisive gap-up Doji (SPY and DIA) or Spinning Top type (QQQ) candles in the 3 major indices.  VXX fell to 24.85 and T2122 spiked near the maximum, deep in overbought territory at 99.35.  10-year bond yields were very high early before falling all the way back to see a modest decline to 2.389% for the day.  Oil (WTI) also fell back from earlier highs to close at $105.09/barrel.

During the day Tuesday, the JOLTS report showed that there were 11.3 million job openings, which is 5 million more than the total unemployed workforce (a record discrepancy).  The volatility in mem stocks continued as GME closed down 5.12% (while trading in a 23% range over the course of the day) and MAC closed up 0.41% after trading in a 30% range on the day.  Meanwhile, AAPL (+1.91%) put in its 11^th straight day of gains, the stock’s longest winning streak since 2003.  If you were in AAPL, congratulations, if not, be careful chasing.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

After the close, CALM, CNXC, MU, and MLKN all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, LULU, PVH, and RH all beat on earnings while missing on revenue.   We should note that LUL also initiated a $1 billion buyback program and RH announced a 3-for-1 split that will take place later this Spring.  However, CHWY missed on both the top and bottom lines. So far this morning, BNTX and MSM reported beating on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, AER beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  FIVE was just the opposite, missing on revenue while beating on earnings.

Mortgage demand plummeted last week (compared to a year with those two instances of a quarter of a percent spike in 30-year rates within a few days of each other.  The average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was at 4.80% (actually down from the peak) at week’s end. Refinance applications fell 15% for the week and 60% compared to the same week in 2021.  New home purchase applications rose 1% for the week but were also down 10% from a year prior.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mostly green.  Shenzhen (+3.10%) was a clear outlier to the upside, with Shanghai (+1.96%) and Hong Kong (+1.39%) leading all but 2 Asian exchanges higher.  Japan (-0.80%) and Malaysia (-0.01%) were the only red in the region.  In Europe, stocks are mixed, but leaning to the downside at mid-day.  Russia (+4.34%) was a clear outlier with the market manipulating policies in place, but Norway (+2.35%) was also heavily green with a handful of other exchanges following.  However, the FTSE (+0.01%), DAX (-1.44%), and CAC (-0.91%) are most indicative of the continent in early afternoon trading after Russia said it sees no breakthroughs in peace talks.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly down start to the session.  The DIA implies a -0.23% open, the SPY is implying a -0.26% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.37% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 2.415% and Oil (WTI) is up 2.59% in early trading.

Major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am), Q4 GDP (8:30 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) as well as a Fed speaker (George at 1 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled before the open are limited to AER, BNTX, CNM, FIVE, MSM, PAYX, and UNF.  Then after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

With Ukraine making some gains in the South (near besieged Mariupol) and no major economic news this morning, the mood seems to be somewhere between lifting and waiting in the premarket. However, we should expect massive volatility (especially in energy markets) to continue to be the norm. So, don’t get complacent. The bulls still clearly have the momentum, but there is resistance close overhead from major averages in the QQQ and DIA as well as prior price levels. Be careful of both quarter-end window dressing rotation toward the winners funds look to assure owners they are in the ones that did best…even if it was a last-minute entry. And expect that intraday volatility as we head into the last 3 days of a quarter of war and inflation-ridden markets.

Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BNTX, RIG, OXY, SQ, OCGN, XLE, AFRM, IBB, MP, CRON, DKNG, MQ, PSFE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service