Russia started pulling back some of their troops (away from Ukraine) and the bulls jumped for joy Tuesday.  All 3 major indices gapped higher (1% – 1.5%) at the open, but then they meandered sideways, retesting the open level.  The large-cap indices continued the meander sideways for the rest of the day, but the QQQ caught a modest afternoon rally, all 3 of them closed near the highs of the day.  DIA and SPY tested but were unable to break through their T-lines, but QQQ managed to get that done.  This left us with Morningstar signals in all 3 indices.  IWM was the strongest of them all as it was clearly a risk-on day.  On the day, SPY gained 1.61%, DIA gained 1.25%, and QQQ gained 2.49%.  The VXX fell 8.24% to 21.39 and T2122 shot all the way up into the edge of the overbought territory at 81.75.  10-year bond yields rose to 2.043% and Oil (WTI) “plummeted” 3% to $92.07/barrel.

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After the close, CINF, ANDE, ALC, DVN, WELL, ENLC, ABNB, AKAM, MRC, ACCO, CLW, and WIRE all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, VIAC, MCY, IAC, RBLX, CF, WYNN, LZB, and CRK all missed on earnings, but beat on revenue.  REZI and INVH missed on revenue, but beat on earnings.  However, WFG and SEDG reported misses on both lines.

Contrary to yesterday’s “the Russians are heading back to their barracks” message, this morning the market is greeted with a message from the other camp.  NATO head Jens Stoltenberg told the press today that “it appears that Russia continues their military buildup (at the border).”  British PM Johnson also told the press of troubling intelligence such as Russian Field Hospitals being constructed near the border of Belarus and Ukraine.  He went on to threaten to stop Russian companies from raising capital via London’s financial markets if an invasion does take place.  The point is, we did not have a clear picture last week, earlier this week, or today about what Putin will actually do.  So, volatility is all that a trader can say is almost certain.

Overnight, the Asian markets were green across the board with the lone exception of India (-0.17%).  Japan (+2.22%), South Korea (+1.99%), Taiwan (+1.56%), and Hong Kong (+1.49%) led the way higher.  In Europe, stocks lean to the green side on mostly modest moves, but there is a handful of red showing at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.22%), Dax (+0.03%), and CAC (+0.05%) are the big dogs, but the smaller exchanges are showing a bit more move (both ways) in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a slightly red open.  The DIA implies a -0.11% open, the SPY is implying a -0.07% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.02% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are flat, but Oil (WTI) is up 1% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Jan. Retail Sales and Jan. Import/Export Price Indices (both at 8:30 am), Jan. Industrial Production (9:15 am), Dec. Business Inventories (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and Jan. FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the market include AMCX, ADI, GOLD, BGCP, CRL, CROX, DNB, GRMN, GNRC, HLT, KHC, NUS, OC, R, SHOP, SITE, SAH, SUN, VMC, and WAB.  Then after the close, ALB, ALSN, ATUS, AIG, AWK, AR, AMAT, APP, SAM, BFAM, CAKE, CSCO, CYH, COMP, CNDT, CPRT, DASH, ET, EQIX, HST, H, KAR, KGC, MRO, NTR, NVDA, OCDX, PXD, RUSHA, SNPS, TROX, UFPI, VMI, and WCN report.

The premarket futures are flat this morning ahead of Retail Sales numbers. With cold water tossed on the bullish knee-jerk reaction (assuming Russian-West tensions were over) this morning, it’s possible markets wait to see if anything can be learned by picking through the tea leaves of the Fed minutes. With that said, the public statements make it clear the Fed is divided into at least 2 factions (Hawks who want to see at least a half of a percent hike in March and 1% before July and Doves who want a quarter percent hike in March, followed by a “let’s see what that does before we do anything else” approach). That leaves markets uncertain…and the one thing markets hate most is uncertainty. So, stay nimble and/or hedged to volatility, and remember we have both potential support and potential resistance nearby.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.) Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today (Rick is on vacation this week). You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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