Markets gapped down, ground sideways, sold off hard, and then ground sideways again on Monday.  SPY gapped down 0.28%, DIA gapped down 0.30%, and QQQ gapped down 0.41%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways not far from the open level for a while.  SPY and DIA started their next leg, a sharp selloff at about 11:30 a.m.  For its part, QQQ kept chopping sideways until 2 p.m. before it too sold off even faster. All three reached the lows of the day at about 3 p.m. before drifting sideways with a modest bullish trend.  This action gave us a black-body candle after an indecisive candle, which crossed back below its T-line (8ema).  All three also have wicks on both end of the candles.  This happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.   

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-1.91%) way out front (by almost three-quarters of a percent), leading the rest of the market lower.  On the other side, Energy (+0.37%) held up almost a half percent better than any other sector.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.90%, DIA lost 0.90%, and QQQ lost 1.07%. VXX spiked 8.91% to close at 57.72 and T2122 dropped to the bottom side of its mid-range at 44.66.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields popped up over 4% to close at 4.02% while Oil (WTI) spiked another 3.98% on Middle East fears to close at $77.33 per barrel.  (So, WTI has spiked 14.3% over 7 trading days on Israeli versus the region fears.) 

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to August Consumer Credit which came in at $9.93 billion (compared to a forecast of $11.80 billion and hugely below July’s $26.63 billion reading).  On one hand, this means US consumers are likely in better shape, having less installment debt. However, it also means consumers were not out spending, which could indicate lower consumer confidence.  Either way, it should be read as bearish for the US Dollar.  (And things that are bearish for the Dollar are, by definition, bullish for commodity prices.)  Still, it is worth noting that Consumer Credit figures have always been subject to sizable revisions due to a lack of reporting uniformity or requirements.

In Fed news, on Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari seemed to say the same thing Chicago Fed President Goolsbee had said on Friday. Namely, the Fed liked the strong September Labor report.  Kashkari said, “It looks like it is still a strong labor market…it’s really good news as we want to keep a strong labor market.” He went on to say, “The balance of risks has shifted away from higher inflation towards maybe higher unemployment.”  … “So that’s a really good fact that the job market has stayed strong while inflation has come down.”  Then early Tuesday, Fed Governor Kugler said she had supported the half-percent rate cut in September.  She said, “While I believe the focus should remain on continuing to bring inflation to 2%, I support shifting attention to the maximum-employment side of the FOMC’s dual mandate as well.” She did go on to note the better-than-expected Payrolls report from Friday and said she now supports a “balanced approach” to future cuts, saying, “The labor market remains resilient, but I support a balanced approach to the FOMC’s dual mandate so we can continue making progress on inflation while avoiding an undesirable slowdown in employment growth and economic expansion.”  Later, NY Fed President Williams had an interview with the Financial Times in London.  Williams said, “The current stance of monetary policy is really well positioned to both hopefully keep maintaining the strength that we have in the economy and the labor market, but also continuing to see that inflation comes back to 2%.” He defended the larger half-percent first cut, saying it was “right in September and right today.” Williams went on to say that the Fed’s Dot Plot (which shows two additional quarter-point rate cuts this year) is a “very good base case.”

In stock news, on Monday, APD surged on reports that activist investor Mantle Ridge had taken a more than $1 billion position.  This set off a chain reaction, including two analyst upgrades.  (APD ended the day up 9.52% after a 7% gap higher at the open.)  At the same time, SRRK announced positive results from its Phase 3 clinical trial for its apitegromab treatment for muscular atrophy. (SRRK gapped up 254% and closed out the day at +361.99%.)  Later, Reuters exclusively reported that UL will invest more than $165 million to improve its European supply chain.  In addition, UL sources said the company’s European homecare unit will increase R&D and promotion spending by 40% in 2025. (No dollar figure was given.)  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that GOOGL’s share of the $300 billion search market is under pressure from AI rivals and other platforms like TikTok offering native Internet search functions.  WSJ reported that GOOGL’s share of that market is expected to end the year at below 50% for the first time in more than a decade. 

Meanwhile, AMZN’s share of that market is expected to reach 22.3% this year.  Later, GM announced it had restarted production at assembly plants following the hurricane-related supplier shortages.  At the same time, CVX announced it is selling its Athabasca oil sands and Duvernay shale assets to CNQ for $6.5 billion (all cash).  CVX expects the deal to close Dec. 6.  (Those two resources produced 84k barrels of oil per day in 2023.)  Later, EQNR announced it had bought a 9.8% stake in Danish offshore wind farm developer ORSTED for $2.5 billion. At the same time, Reuters reported that activist investor Starboard Value had bought about a $1 billion stake in PFE.  (PFE gapped higher on the news and closed near the opening level, up 2.17%.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, the US Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal by UBER and LYFT, which were seeking to avoid lawsuits from the state of CA on behalf of drivers.  (The drivers had been forced to sign agreements to keep legal disputes in arbitration rather than court.)  Later, a Seattle-based US District Judge unsealed his Sept. 30 ruling that the FTC case against AMZN for antitrust violations will proceed to trial.  (It is worth noting that a few of the co-plaintiff states, namely NJ, PA, MD, and OK, had their claims dismissed.)  At the same time, the US State Dept. approved the sale of $965 million in arms to Romania and Italy.  RTX is the maker of the $285 million of arms sold to Romania while BAESY produced the $680 million sold to Italy. Later, a US District judge ruled that GOOGL must offer alternatives to its Google Play store for downloading and paying for apps on Android phones on antitrust grounds.  (The order restricts GOOGL from paying phone makers to preinstall the Google Play store or from sharing Play store revenue with other app distributors.) For its part, GOOGL immediately vowed to appeal the decision.  

Elsewhere, STLA filed eight additional lawsuits against the UAW union, alleging the union violated its labor contract by threatening to strike over the company’s delaying of investments it promised in the contract. Later, a group representing drug compounders sued the FDA over its decision to remove LLY’s bestselling weight-loss and diabetes drug from the “shortage list” last week. Thereby hurting drug compounder’s ability to sell their own version of the drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro. The suit alleges that those drugs are still in short supply.  (If left on the list, it would require rationing of the drugs by LLY to any given buyer and give generic compounders a leg-up since they are not bound by the list rules.)  Finally, Mexico’s antitrust regulator made a preliminary finding Monday saying that GPAGP (tortilla-maker Gruma) holds unacceptable price-fixing power in the corn tortilla market in Mexico.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday, the CBOE announced it will list “hedged ADRs” that Us investors can use to buy foreign-listed stocks while limiting impacts from any currency fluctuations. Initially, these will include ADRhedged offerings for AZN, HSBC, and SHEL.  However, 14 other hedgedADR offerings will follow quickly.  Elsewhere, Hurricane Milton quickly went from Category 3 to Category 5 Monday.  This caused at least one oil and gas platform (owned by CVX) to shutdown.  Meanwhile, some FL ports have also begun restricting navigation or planning for Tuesday closure.

In Middle East news, Yemen’s Houthi rebels got in on the Middle East fighting again on Monday.  The Houthi claim to have fired two missiles at Jaffa, Israel.  (The IDF claimed to have shot down one of the two.)  Meanwhile, the Israeli bombing campaign in Beirut and Southern Lebanon as well as the Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon continued. For his part, Israeli PM Netanyahu said they were fighting a “war of resurrection” and they are in the process of changing the security reality of the region and their attacks will not stop until all their goals are achieved.  Perhaps in response, French President Macron called on an arms embargo of Israel in the face of 42k Palestinians and more than 2,000 Lebanese killed in Israeli actions over the last year. With this as the backdrop, oil markets continue to reflect big fear over the threatened, and likely coming, Israeli retaliation to Iran’s recent 180 missile barrage.  (Analysts are speculating Israel will attack Iran’s oil infrastructure to damage its economic output and cause maximum pain to domestic.) 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed as China resumed trading after a week-long national holiday.  Mainland China remained “crazy strong” as they were right before their break with Shenzhen (+9.17%) and Shanghai (+4.59%) by far the biggest gainers.  On the other side, Hong Kong (-9.41%) and Japan (-1.00%) stood out among losers.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see red across the board at 7:15 a.m.  The CAC (-0.64%), DAX (-0.22%), and FTSE (-1.15%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade on Chinese responses to the EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the morning.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.41% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.50% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are essentially flat from the Monday close at 4.024% and Oil (WTI) is actually down 1.58% to $75.90 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes August Exports, August Imports, and August Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), and API Weekly Crude Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Bostic (12:45 p.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  However, after the close, PEP reports.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories and the September FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  However, we also hear from Fed member Bostic and Fed member Daly. On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core CPI, September CPI, September Federal Budget Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet. We also hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, September Core PPI, September PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, we hear from HELE.  Then Thursday, DAL and DPZ report. Finally, on Friday, earnings season kicks off again in earnest as BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

So far this morning, PEP missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  PEP also cut its full-year forecast, citing weakness in US snack sales and the repercussions from its Quaker Foods recalls in North America.

With that background, markets look modestly bullish so far in the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened the early session roughly flat, but have printed white-bodied candles with tiny upper wicks at this point. SPY and QQQ have crossed back above in a retest of their T-line (8ema). However, the DIA has not quite reached its T-line yet. So, the short-term trend is back to modestly bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs and they remain not far from their all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator sits in the center of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning. The biggest dog, NVDA (+2.06%) leads that pack higher on both price move and volume. On the other side, INTC (-0.40%) is the laggard among that group. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA has traded 3.5 times the dollar-volume as next-closest ticker TSLA (+1.14%). This is typical for a bullish day in recent months.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw three moves by the market.  A gap higher, fading of the gap, and a long, protracted rally.  SPY gapped up 0.81%, DIA gapped up 0.58%, and QQQ gapped up 1.21%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs sold off for more than an hour with SPY and QQQ not quite recrossing the gap, but DIA crossing all the way back below its prior close.  However, shortly after 10:30 a.m., all three began a slow, steady rally that lasted right into the last five minutes of the day.  This action gave us indecisive but bullish candles in all three.  SPY and QQQ both printed long-legged Doji type candles that gapped up through and retested from above (passing that test) their T-line (8ema).  At the same time, DIA gapped up through its T-line, retested its T-line from above, and printed a white-bodied Hanging Man type candle that also printed a new all-time high close.  This all happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Financial Services (+1.72%) out in front, leading the rest of the market higher.  On the other side, Utilities (+0.23%) was the laggard.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.91%, DIA gained 0.82%, and QQQ gained 1.19%. VXX fell 3.79% to close at 53.00 and T2122 popped up to just outside of its overbought territory to the top of its mid-range at 78.90.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields spiked to close at 3.969% while Oil (WTI) rose another 1.19% on Middle East fears to close at $74.60 per barrel.  So, the end of the US port strike and great September jobs data showing the economy isn’t falling off a cliff led to a gap higher. At that point the profit-takers ran for an hour.  However, the bulls stepped in to buy the dip and keep slowly buying all day long.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included Sept. Avg. Hourly Earnings (Month-on-Month), which came in down but better than expected at +0.4% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% but down from August’s +0.5% reading).  On an annualized basis, Sept. Avg. Hourly Earnings were up to +4.0% (versus the +3.8% forecast and August’s annual +3.9% number).  At the same time, September Nonfarm Payrolls were much stronger than anticipated at +254k (compared to +147k forecast and +159k Aug. value).  (It is worth noting that there were also upward revisions to summer payrolls numbers.)  On the private side, September Private Nonfarm Payrolls were also much stronger than predicted at +223k (versus a +125k forecast and August’s +114k number).  Meanwhile, the September Participation Rate remained steady at 62.7% (compared to a forecast and August reading of 62.7%).  Taken together, this gave us a September Unemployment Rate that fell to 4.1% (versus a forecast and August value of 62.7%).  So, the data showed us that the economy remains strong on the jobs side with growing earnings even as other data has shown inflation falling.  That’s as close to a soft landing (the so-called golden path) as you can get. However, the Bears and folks who think they know better than the Fed, saw the data as an omen of either no rate cut in November or at the very least “disappointing the market” with a lesser cut than was expected.  (That latter point overlooks that Fed members, including Fed Chair Powell, all but said were only getting a quarter-point cut in November.)

In Fed news, on Friday morning, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told Bloomberg the US jobs report was “superb.”  Goolsbee said, “You really couldn’t ask realistically for a better report for the economy, coupled with finding out that the (East Coast and Gulf Coast) port strike is not going to be an extended matter … those are two pieces of very good news for the economy.”  He continued, “If we get more reports like this, I’m going to feel a lot more confident that we are in fact settling in at full employment.”  Goolsbee went on to say there are even some signs that inflation will go lower than the FOMC’s 2% target. He went on to say that despite the strong jobs report, the Fed Funds rate is still far above what most FOMC members see as the eventual “settling point” and that it is appropriate for the Fed to bring the rate down “a lot” over the next 12-18 months.

In stock news, on Friday, rumors spread that APO is in advanced talks to acquire B for $45 per share.  (B gapped higher and closed up 12.98% at $45.26 on the news.) Later, TELL announced that shareholders have approved the $1.2 billion acquisition of WOPEY (Australian energy producer Woodside Energy Group).  At the same time, the BA and LMT joint venture (United Launch Alliance) announced it had successfully launched a second mission. (This is another step toward Dept. of Defense certification, which is required prior to carrying commercial contracts for national security payloads.)  Later, META announce two new services aimed at bringing in more young adult users.  The new “Local” and “Explore” tabs are currently being tested in various cities around the US.  At the same time, GM announced it had halted production at two plants (an SUV assembly plant and a truck assembly plant) due to the impact of Hurricane Helen on parts suppliers.

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that GOOGL is experimenting with “verified” check marks in search results. (There is no word on whether or no GOOGL intends to monetize such a feature the way Elon Musk did with the former Twitter.)  At the same time, UAW union workers at STLA’s Los Angeles parts distribution center voted in favor of strike unless the carmaker settled grievances related to company failures to make product and investments as promised in the most recent national contract with STLA.  Later, JNJ announced it will discontinue a mid-stage trial of its experimental pill for the prevention of dengue fever.  The company said this came after reprioritization of its R&D portfolio.  At the same time, Reuters exclusively reported that RIO is in talks to acquire lithium miner ALTM.  If the deal were closed, it would make RIO the third-largest producer of lithium in the world.  (Sources tell Reuters the deal would value ALTM at between $4 billion and $6 billion.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, Reuters reported TMO repeatedly broke FDA contamination rules at its plant that manufactures infant formula and RSV drugs.  The report cited documents from US FDA inspections.  (TMO makes RSV drugs for SNY and infant formula on behalf of AZN.)  At the same time, the NHTSA announced it has opened a probe into 260k F crossover SUVs over losses of braking due to a brake hose defect.  Later, COIN announced it will delist certain stablecoins in the European Economic Area by year end.  This move was in response to the EU’s landmark crypto regulatory framework which will be fully implemented by December.

Elsewhere, the EU voted to move ahead with tariffs (of up to 45%) on Chinese EVs. The contentious vote passed 10 to 5 with 12 abstentions.  Later, the US Supreme Court agreed to hear an appeal from SWBI (Smith & Wesson) to a $10 billion lawsuit brought by the Mexican government. The suit alleges the company and Interstate Arms Company aided and abetted gun trafficking.  At the same time, STLA sued the UAW union over strike threats stemming from the company’s plans to delay investments promise in the 2023 labor contract.  After the close, the FDA placed a lupus treatment from KZR on hold following the death of four patients, which showed common symptoms and three deaths came soon after administration of the experimental drug.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday night, the US port strike ended in a tentative deal over wages and benefits.  (The automation negotiations will continue with no further strike until January.)  Then Friday, Longshoreman resumed work at US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports.  This means the port shutdown lasted three days and typically it will take nine days (three days per day of shutdown) to fully recover cargo backlogs.  In France, the European Commission approved funds for the removal of 4% of the grape vines in that country.  Back in the US, estimates now indicate that economic damage from Hurricane Helene will reach $250 billion. However, the insurance industry says that only about $5 billion of that will be covered by policies.  As an immediate response is continuing, the disgraced ex-President and his conspiracy theorist minions (like Elon Musk) continue to sew doubt and deter people from using resources available to them by continually spreading lies, amplifying completely unfounded rumors, and distortions for their political gain.

In Fed prediction news, following Friday’s strong September jobs report, there was a huge shift in the implied probabilities of a November Fed rate cut.  Fed Funds Futures trades now bake in a 97.4% probability of a quarter-point cut at the November meeting with 2.6% betting on no change in rates then.  One week prior, 46.7% were expecting a half percent rate cut and 53.3% of trades expected a quarter point cut.  There were no trades expecting no rate change one week ago.

In Middle East news, Israel continued heavy airstrikes on Gaza and Lebanon over the weekend.  (The AP reported more than 30 strikes in Beirut alone on Sunday evening.) The Israeli ground invasion of Southern Lebanon also continued. Reports indicate over 100 Lebanese killed and an unknown number wounded over the weekend alone. One-third of the Lebanese population are now refugees.  Israel confirmed 11 of the IDF ground forces have also been killed. This all comes as it appears Israel is preparing a retaliatory strike on Iran over the 180 missiles that country fired at/toward Israel last week.  From an oil market perspective, the majority of oil flows that has been disrupted or are threatened would go to China. However, if China can’t buy from Iran or the rest of the Gulf can’t ship to China due to war, it will end up buying from other sources.  This will allow US and other producers to sell at a premium.  WTI is up 10% in the last 10 days as of Sunday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with Japan (+1.80%), Taiwan (+1.79%), and South Korea (+1.58%) pacing the gains.  In Europe, the bourses are mixed at midday.  The CAC (+0.18%), DAX (-0.24%), and FTSE (+0.46%) lead the region in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.40% open, the SPY is implying a -0.46% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.62% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields have spiked again to 4.002% and Oil (WTI) jumped another 2.5% on Israeli fears (continued bombing and invasion with threat of attack on Iran) in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to August Consumer Credit (3 p.m.). We also hear from Fed members Kashkari (1:50 p.m.) and Bostic (6 p.m.). There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close Monday.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get August Exports, August Imports, August Trade Balance, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, and API Weekly Crude Stocks report.  We also hear from Fed member Bostic (12:45 p.m.).  Then Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories and the September FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  However, we also hear from Fed member Bostic and Fed member Daly. On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core CPI, September CPI, September Federal Budget Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet. We also hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, September Core PPI, September PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, PEP reports. On Wednesday, we hear from HELE.  Then Thursday, DAL and DPZ report. Finally, on Friday, earnings season kicks off again in earnest as BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

With that background, markets look bearish so far in the premarket. All three major index ETFs gapped down to start the early session and have traded lower to retest their T-line (8ema) from above. However, all three are now trading above their T-line (8ema) at the moment. So, the short-term trend remains bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs and they remain not far from their all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended above its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator is still in its mid-range (although just outside of overbought territory. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. However, the Bears have a little more slack and the Middle East situation in their corner. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are modestly in the red. AMZN (-1.71%) leads the losses while AMD (+0.49%) is holding up far better than the others. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA (-0.48%) has traded only 1.5 times the dollar-volume as TSLA (-0.46%). This is typically a factor of three.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw a modestly lower open and Bearish morning.  SPY opened 0.09% lower, DIA opened down 0.17%, and QQQ opened 0.09% lower. At that point, the Bears were in-charge across all three major index ETFs, driving a sharp selloff that reached the lows of the day at 10:15 a.m. in DIA and 11:20 a.m. in the SPY and QQQ.  From there, all three rode a slightly bullish roller coaster sideways the rest of the day.  This action gave us large, black-bodied candles with significant lower wicks in the SPY and QQQ.  Both of them crossed back below their T-line (8ema) and even retested (and passed the test) their 17ema. Meanwhile, DIA printed a black-bodied Spinning Top with most of its wick on the bottom side of the candle.  It too retested its 8ema, but unlike the others, it stayed above its T-line.  This happened on average volume in the SPY and QQQ but above average volume in the DIA.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were red with Technology (-1.71%) WAY out in front (by nine-tenths of a percent), leading the rest of the market lower.  On the other side, Energy (+2.02%) was the biggest mover and outperformed the other sectors by more than 1.5%.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.88%, DIA lost 0.38%, and QQQ lost 1.39%. VXX spiked 7.72% to close at 53.43 and T2122 dropped back to the middle of its mid-range at 54.67.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell to close at 3.735% while Oil (WTI) spiked on Middle East fears to close at $70.62 per barrel.  So, for the most part, the Bears ruled the morning (mostly on fears over the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and Iran’s retaliatory attack over recent Israeli assassinations conducted in Iran).

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included September S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which was down but better than expected at 47.3 (compared to a forecast of 47.0 and an August reading of 47.9).  Later August Construction Spending was up but worse than expected at -0.1% month-on-month (versus a +0.2% forecast and the July -0.5% value).  At the same time, September ISM Mfg. PMI was flat, which was not as strong as predicted at 47.2 (compared to a 47.6 forecast and in-line with the August 47.2 reading).  On the jobs side, Sept. ISM Mfg. Employment Index was down to 43.9 (versus a 47.0 forecast and a 46.0 August value).  Related to costs, September’s ISM Mfg. PMI Price Index was significantly lower at 48.3 (compared to a 53.5 forecast and a 54.0 August reading).  Meanwhile, August JOLTs Job Openings were up at 8.040 million (versus a 7.640 million forecast and a 7.711 million July number).  Later, after the close, API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks were down a little less than anticipated at -1.458 million barrels (compared to the forecast calling for a 2.100-million-barrel drawdown and the previous week’s -4.339 million barrels). 

After the close, CALM and LW reported beats on both the earnings and revenue lines.  At the same time, NKE missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

In stock news, on Tuesday, SLTA announced an extension of their halt in production of the Fiat 500e until at least November 1.  (The halt had initially been planned to end Oct. 11, but was extended three weeks amid slow electric vehicle sales.)  At the same time, Reuters reported that sources tell it that AAPL may need to turn back to China to supply iPhone components after a fire destroyed at Tata Group’s Hosur Indian iPhone component plant.  The weekend fire has caused what is being called “an indefinite production halt.”  Later, EQIX announced it has entered into a $15 billion joint-venture with the Singapore sovereign wealth fund and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board to build a US data center. (The data center is expected to eventually scale to use 1.5 gigawatts of power.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that BA is looking to raise $10 billion by selling new shares.  Later, MSFT announced it has begun rolling out updates to its consumer Copilot software, giving it an AI assistant and a “more amiable” voice.  At the same time, GM reported that its Q3 new vehicle sales fell 2.2% due to fewer sales days in the quarter and lower consumer spending.  TM reported an 8% decrease for the quarter.  (F and STLA have yet to announce sales.) 

Meanwhile, CVS said it would be laying off 2,900 employees (1% of workforce) as part of a cost-cutting plan. The cuts will primarily be at corporate headquarters in RI.  Later, as with most competent companies, TM announced it had built extra inventory of vehicles and parts ahead of the US port strikes.  At the same time, SCHW announced that its long-time CEO Bettinger will retire on January 1, after 16 years at the helm.  He will be replaced current company President Wurster.  Later, CI, CVS, HUM, CNC, and UNH unveiled their 2025 Medicare Advantage plans.  The companies told Reuters that 83% of enrollees will have access to a $0 monthly premium plan.  At the same time, BRKB announced it had purchase full control of its Energy unit, buying the remaining 8% of stock for $2.37 billion. Later, JNJ announced it will invest more than $2 billion in a new manufacturing facility in NC for the production of biologic drugs and therapies. At the same time, CNBC reported that 500 SBUX locations have voted to unionize as talks between the union and company continue.  (The Starbucks Workers United union now represents more than 11k SBUX employees.) After the close, Bloomberg reported AAPL will launch upgrades to iPhone SE and iPad Air product lines in early 2025. At the same time, NKE withdrew its annual forecast and postponed its planned investor day when it reported earnings.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, the CFTC announced BCS agreed to pay $4 million to settle civil charges that it violated US law and CFTC rules requiring accurate and timely reporting on swap transactions.  (BCS failed to report 5 million such swap transactions from 2018 to 2023.)  Later, a US district judge dismissed a shareholder suit against PTON.  The suit had alleged PTON defrauded shareholders by concealing how demand for its exercise machines had fallen as COVID vaccines became available and people were allowed to return to public life.  Later, the NHTSA announced that owners of 154k Jeep hybrid plug-ins should park the vehicle outside and away from buildings or other vehicles until recall repairs are completed. 

At the same time, the Fed announced it had terminated a 2013 enforcement action filed against C related to money laundering. (The enforcement action did not carry a fine but required process and documentations changes.)  In 2023, C announced it planned to split the offending unit from the rest of the bank in the second half of 2024.  At the same time, the NRLB issued a complaint against AAPL for allegedly violating employees right to organize or advocate for better working conditions by maintaining unlawful workplace rules.  (Among the alleged infractions were confidentiality, non-disclose, non-compete, employee misconduct, and off-time social media policies.  Among the prohibited topics were pay, discrimination, and promotion standards.)

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday evening, the state of MI announced the schedule resulting from a summer major MI State Supreme Court decision that raises the state’s minimum wage by 20% to $12.48/hour at the end of February.  (The first increase will the to $10.56 on January 1 and then to $12.48 on February 21.  It will increase again to $14.97 in February 2028 and then be followed by annual inflation adjustments.)  The court decision ruled that after 280k MI voters signed petitions calling for a ballot issue on the state minimum wage, the GOP legislature passed changes in 2018 and then proceeded to illegally water down the increases to insignificant levels.

In Middle East news, Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon continued, even as the Lebanese army had fled southern Lebanon.  Reportedly, 60 Lebanese were killed and an unknown number wounded on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Iran chose to take a retaliatory action for last month’s Israeli assassination of Hamas’ top negotiator in Tehran.  Iran fired about 180 missiles toward Israel Tuesday. Many of the missiles were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense and US Navy anti-missile systems. However, a few Iranian missiles and a lot of missile fragments did hit southern Israel.  No casualties were reported since Israel had plenty of time to move the public to bomb shelters.  (The closest Iranian hit seems to have been a missile that landed within six-tenths of a mile from Mossad headquarters.)  Israeli PM Netanyahu immediately vowed that “Iran will pay” for its attack.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red.  Japan (-2.13%) was well out front followed by South Korea (-1.22%) and Malaysia (-1.03%) leading the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape as 11 of the 14 bourses are modestly in the red at midday.  The CAC (-0.12%), DAX (-0.59%), and FTSE (+0.18%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.38% open, the SPY is implying a -0.26% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.23% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.756% and Oil (WTI) has spiked another 3.62% on Middle East fears to $72.35 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes September ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 a.m.), and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 11 a.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to CAG and RPM.  Then, after the close, LEVI reports. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September S&P Global Services PMI, September S&P Global Composite PMI, August Factory Orders, September ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.   We also hear from Fed member Bostic at 10:40 a.m.  Finally, on Friday, September Avg. Hourly Earnings, September Nonfarm Payrolls, September Participation Rate, September Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and September Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed member Williams.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from STZ.  However, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, September ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 11 a.m.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September S&P Global Services PMI, September S&P Global Composite PMI, August Factory Orders, September ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.   We also hear from Fed member Bostic at 10:40 a.m.  Finally, on Friday, September Avg. Hourly Earnings, September Nonfarm Payrolls, September Participation Rate, September Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and September Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed member Williams.

In overnight news, a chlorine chemical cloud in Atlanta has triggered a new series of shelter-in-place orders for that major city.  This is the fallout of Sunday’s fire at the BioLab chemical plant in Conyers, GA (25 miles Southeast of Atlanta).  Multiple counties have had such shelter-in-place orders since the fire, but now the impact is being felt in a major urban population center.  Elsewhere, early this morning, LLY announced it will build a $4.5 billion research, development, and manufacturing facility located near Lebanon, IN.

So far this morning, RPM reported a miss on revenue while also beating on earnings.  However, CAG reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, markets look indecisively bearish so far in the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened the early session lower and have printed mostly wick since that point. All three are now trading below their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now bearish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs and they remain not far from their all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended above its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator is back in the center of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. However, the Bears have what momentum exists on the back of the Middle East situation and the US East and Gulf port strike. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are modestly in the red. AAPL (-0.58%) leads the losses while META (+0.18%) and NFLX (+0.12%) are holding up better than the others. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA (-0.35%) has traded only a little more than 2 times the dollar-volume as TSLA (-0.31%). This is typically a factor of at least two to three.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets were flat most of the day with mid-afternoon volatility and a strong rally into the close.  SPY opened 0.16% lower, DIA opened down 0.10%, and QQQ gapped down 0.21%.  From there, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways in a tight range until 2 p.m.  At that point, all three sold off for 20 minutes, rallied back for 25 minutes, and then paused for 35 minutes.  Finally, the last 25 minutes of the day was a sharp rally into the close.  This action gave us white-bodied candles with significant lower wicks.  SPY printed a Bullish Engulfing signal and closed at another all-time high close after retesting (and passing the test of) its T-line (8ema) earlier in the day.  DIA gave us a white-bodied Hammer that also retested its T-line and closed at another all-time high close.  Meanwhile, QQQ also retested (and passed the test of) its T-line while printing a white-bodied big-bodied Hammer type.  The happened on well-below-average volume in the QQQ, slightly below-average volume in SPY, and just above-average volume in the DIA.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were green again with Healthcare (+0.42%) out in front, leading the rest of the market higher.  On the other side, Basic Materials (-0.57%) and Consumer Cyclical (-0.53%) were the laggard sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.42%, DIA gained a slim 0.04%, and QQQ gained 0.27%. VXX dropped 2.35% to end at 49.54 and T2122 fell back to the bottom half of its overbought territory at 83.21.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.785% while Oil (WTI) remained unchanged to close at $68.19 per barrel.  So, for the most part, the first 4.5 hours of the day were a boring market. Then Fed Chair Powell spoke. Initially, the market sold on Powell telling us that more, smaller cuts lay ahead.  (Coming into Powell’s speech, 53% of Fed Fund Futures bets expected a half-percent cut in November.  Afterward, only 36% expect the half-point cut.)  However, the Bulls stepped in to buy that dip. This may have been a reaction to Powell saying the economy was fine, or it may have been a month-end or quarter-end push.  Regardless of the cause, stocks rallied sharply the last 20 minutes with two of three major index ETFs closing at new all-time high closes.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to September Chicago PMI.  This came in better than expected at 46.6 (compared to a forecast and August value of 46.1). 

In Fed news, Atlanta Fed President Bostic told Reuters he was open to another half-percent cut in November if upcoming data shows job growth slowing.  Bostic said, “A surprise to the weak side …. would pull me much further into really needing another dramatic move.”  He continued, “If the story is that inflation is continuing its drop and the labor market is staying strong, I think we have the luxury of being a bit more patient with rate cuts.” … “If, on the other hand, the labor market comes in much weaker, I think that would add urgency to this (rate cutting cycle).”  Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (in an interview with Fox Business) was even more definite in saying he feels quarter-point cuts are the way to go.  Goolsbee said, (With regard to monetary policy) “This is a process, over a year or more, that we’re trying to get the rates down to normal.”  He continued regarding the pace of cuts, saying, “(The Fed Funds rate) has got to come down a lot more than 25 basis points over the next 12 months. It’s going to be a lot of cuts.”

However, the headline speaker Monday was Fed Chair Powell, who spoke to the National Assn. for Business Economics.  Powell said, “Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance.”  He continued, “The path of future interest rates isn’t on any preset course. … It will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.”  Related to current inflation, he said, “Disinflation has been broad based, and recent data indicate further progress toward a sustained return to 2 percent.” Regarding the strength of the economy in terms of Gross Domestic Income versus GDP, Powell said, “That’s been a downside risk that we’ve been monitoring … but there’s now no gap between the two. … That, I would say, removes a downside risk to the economy.”  Powell’s most widely reported remarks were “This is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly. … We will do what it takes in terms of the speed with which we move.”  In discussion, Powell indicated that the FOMC’s base case is for two additional quarter-point cuts for the remainder of 2024.

In stock news, on Monday, STLA cut its 2024 profit forecast and warned it would burn through more cash that previously expected.  The company cited poor US sales and offering bigger discounts to revive US marketshare.  STLA said it now expects a negative cash flow of between $5.58 billion and $11.17 billion instead of positive cash flow.  At the same time, TPG announced it had acquired a minority stake in investment advisory Creative Planning for $2 billion.  Later, MMC announced it agreed to acquire private insurance brokerage McGriff Insurance Services for $7.75 billion.  At the same time, Reuters reported that PFE will sell 640 million shares in UK consumer healthcare company Haleon for about $3.25 billion. 

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that VZ had sold the right to lease, operate, and manage 6.339 mobile phone towers covering 50 states and Washington DC to Vertical Bridge.  The deal includes $2.8 billion in cash up front.  The company is expected to lease the towers back to VZ for 10 years with an option to extend up to 50 years.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that PEP is in advanced talks to buy private Siete Foods for more than $1 billion.  Later, the Teamster Union announced it had signed a tentative agreement with HTZ covering nearly 3k members.  (Union members had voted to strike if a deal was not reached Monday.)  At the same time, Reuters exclusively reported that CVS is considering strategic options including the break-up of the company.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, Russia fined GOOGL $38k (which I have a feeling will cost GOOGL more than that just to pay that paltry amount) for not removing content Russia deems illegal.  Later, a trial against ABT, RBGPF (Reckitt Benckiser), and St. Louis Children’s Hospital began Monday with jury selection.  The companies are being sued over severe intestinal illness that the suit alleges a baby got from premature infant formula he was given after birth.  (There are nearly 1,000 similar cases pending nationwide.)  At the same time, Epic Games filed suit against AAPL and Korea’s Samsung, alleging the pair conspired to protect the Google Play Store from competition.  Later, the US Dept. of Commerce unveiled a new rule that could make it easier to ship AI chips to data centers in the Middle East.  NVDA is the primary winner from the new rule, but AMD and to a lesser extent INTC could receive some benefit as well.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced GM will pay a $1.5 million fine for failing to disclose details of an October 2023 crash involving one of its Cruise self-driving taxis. 

Elsewhere, BMY won the dismissal of a $6.4 billion lawsuit brought by CELG shareholders who had claimed that by delaying federal approval of the cancer drug Breyanzi, BMY had been able to acquire CELG at an artificially low price.  At the same time, the FCC reached a $31.5 million settlement with TMUS over issued related to significant data breaches of TMUS systems over 3 years.  Later, SEC filings showed that XOM, CVX, and COP paid $42 billion to foreign governments last year for oil and gas extraction rights.  This was about eight times what they paid the US government in 2023.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced that STLA is recalling 194k Jeep plug-in hybrids over fire risk following 13 fire reports.  Later, CA Governor Newsom vetoed an AI safety bill after strong opposition from GOOGL, META, MSFT and others.  (TSLA had been a proponent for the bill.)  At the same time, EBAY won the dismissal of a suit brought by the US Dept. of Justice.  The suit alleged EBAY violated environmental laws by allowing hundreds of thousands of polluting and toxic products to be shipped to the US.  The judge ruled Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act protects EBAY from any liability over user content and the company had not materially contributed to the products. 

Meanwhile, the FCC announced it is investigating VZ for a service outage that affected thousands of user and left some in “SOS mode.”  (There were over 105k new outage reports at the peak and 30k new outage reports at of 5 p.m. Eastern.)  At the same time, the US Dept. of Justice and SEC announced TD will pay more than $20 million to settle charges of US Treasury market manipulations using “Spoof” orders.  Later a federal judge ruled AMGN must face a class-action suit trial for waiting too long to tell shareholders it may owe $10.7 billion in unpaid taxes due to underreporting income for six years.  At the same time, a federal just dismissed a suit against TSLA and its CEO Musk, that alleged the company defrauded then by overstating the effectiveness and safety of the company’s self-driving technology.  (Even though he and the company had clearly lied about that for years, the judge ruled the plaintiffs had not proven they had directly said this would boost the stock price.)  Later, WMT announced that Mexico’s antitrust regulator will rule on the company’s liability for antitrust pricing and terms imposed on distributors and suppliers in the next few days.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday, the Dept. of Energy bought 6 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for $68.50/barrel.  The oil will be delivered at a rate of 1.5 million barrels per month from February – May 2025. Elsewhere, analysts now estimate the financial cost of Hurricane Helene may be $160 billion (well above the $95 billion to $110 billion estimated prior to the storm).   Meanwhile, Libyan oil production is set to resume in days after a political deal approved the appointment of an interim Libyan Central Bank Governor.  (This comes after a month-long shutdown of Libyan oil production.)  Finally, the East Coast and Gulf Coast port strike began at midnight.  (For reference, it typically takes three days to recover for each day of shutdown.)

In Middle East news, Israel began what it says is a “limited ground operation” invasion of Lebanon Monday evening.  The IDF said it has no plans for long-term occupation of Lebanon, but (as makes operational sense) gave no indication of goals or timeline.  At the same time, Israel also began bombing the southern side of Beirut.  This all comes after more than a million Lebanese have become refugees, 1,700 have been killed, and multiple thousands of casualties have been reported in the last two weeks.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green even as Chinese markets are closed the rest of the week for their national holiday.  Japan (+1.93%) and Thailand (+1.09%) led the gainers while Australia (-0.74%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see mostly green with only three of 14 bourses in the red at midday. The CAC (+0.02%), DAX (+0.45%), and FTSE (+0.46%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed open.  DIA implies a -0.20% open, the SPY is implying a +0.01% open, and QQQ implies a +0.17% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.743% and Oil (WTI) is oddly (given the Israeli invasion of Lebanon) down 0.75% to $67.69 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes September S&P Global Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), August Construction Spending, September ISM Mfg. PMI, Sept. ISM Mfg. Employment, September ISM Mfg. PMI Price Index, and August JOLTs Job Openings (all at 10 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed Member Bostic twice (11 a.m. and 6:15 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to AYI, MKC, PAYX, and UNFI.  However, after the close, CALM, LW, and NKE report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, September ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 11 a.m.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September S&P Global Services PMI, September S&P Global Composite PMI, August Factory Orders, September ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.   We also hear from Fed member Bostic at 10:40 a.m.  Finally, on Friday, September Avg. Hourly Earnings, September Nonfarm Payrolls, September Participation Rate, September Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and September Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed member Williams.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, CAG, RPM, and LEVI report.  On Thursday, we hear from STZ.  However, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

So far this morning, AYI, MKC, and UNFI all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

With that background, markets look indecisive so fat in the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened the early session flat and have printed mostly wick since that point. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended above its T-line (8ema). However, the T2122 indicator is still in the bottom of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction, but the Bears have just a bit more slack to work with today if they can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the green. GOOGL (+1.32%) leads the gainers while AAPL (-1.26%) paces the losses. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA (+0.24%) has traded only a little more than 1.5 times the dollar-volume as TSLA (+0.37%). This is typically a factor of at least two to three.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw some modest divergence in the markets.  SPY opened 0.20% higher, DIA gapped up 0.25%, and QQQ opened up 0.21%.  However, from that open, QQQ sold off in a very slow manner the rest of the day. It could almost have been called sideway the last couple of hours.  Meanwhile, DIA rallied significantly until 11:30 a.m. before reversing and selling off slowly the rest of the day. For its part, after the open, SPY ground sideway until 11 a.m. and then sold off very slowly the rest of the day.  This action gave us a white-bodied Shooting Star type candle in the DIA, a black-bodied, fat-body, Spinning Top in the SPY, and a black-bodied candle in the QQQ.  This happened on average volume in the DIA and well-below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were green again with Energy (+1.60%) far out in front, leading the rest of the market higher.  On the other side, Technology (-0.56%) and Basic Materials (-0.28%) were the laggard sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.16%, DIA gained 0.31%, and QQQ lost 0.55%.  VXX popped higher to close at 50.73 and T2122 climbed to the middle of its overbought territory at 90.32.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell to close at 3.754% while Oil (WTI) climbed 1.34% to close at $68.58 per barrel. So, taken as a whole, the three major index ETFs held their serve, staying in the existing trend, which are all bullish.  DIA did fail a consolidation breakout attempt while QQQ printed a second gap-up, black-body candle.  Meanwhile, SPY continued its melt higher ending not far above where it opened Monday.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included the August Core PCE Price Index (month-on-month), which came in lower than expected at 0.1% (compared to a forecast and July reading of 0.2%).  On an annual basis, August Core PCE Price Index (year-on-year), was up a tick as expected at 2.7% (versus a 2.7% forecast and a tick above July’s 2.6% reading).  At the same time, the August PCE Price Index (month-on-month) was down and lower than predicted at 0.1% (compared to a forecast and July value of 0.2%).  On the annual basis, the August PCE Price Index (year-on-year) was down significantly to 2.2% (from 2.3% forecast and down sharply from July’s 2.5%). At the same time, August Personal Spending (month-on-month) was also down sharply to 0.2% (versus a forecast of 0.3% and down sharply from July’s 0.5%). Meanwhile, the Preliminary August Goods Trade Balance was better than anticipated at -$94.26 billion (compared to a forecast of $100.60 billion and the July reading of -$102.84 billion).  At the same time, Preliminary August Retail Inventories were up less than expected at +0.4% (versus the July +0.5% value).  Later, Michigan Consumer Sentiment was a bit higher at 70.1 (compared to a 69.0 forecast and August reading).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations were also higher at 74.4 (versus the 73.0 forecast and August value).  In terms of future view, the Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were flat at 2.7% (measured against a 2.7% forecast and August reading).  In addition, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations were also flat at 3.1% (compared to the 3.1% forecast and August value).

In stock news, on Friday, VLKAF (Volkswagen) cut its 2024 outlook for the second time in less than three months.  The company also lowered its profit margin forecast to around 5.6% (down from a 6.5%-7.0% range set three months prior).  Later, C warned employees and contractors about tighter scrutiny as it suspect fraud and unethical behavior by both groups in terms of what the company is billed.  At the same time, Reuters reported that MS’s private equity unit is considering the sale of its HVAC firm Sila for about $1.5 billion.  Later, Reuters reported growing backlogs of rail shipments to Mexico, just as US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports may shutter.  At this point, UNP and BRKB-owned BNSF railways have stopped issuing new permits (orders) for railcar grain shipments to Mexico due to congestion in the Mexican rail system. 

Elsewhere, after the close, CNBC reported that SATS is very near a deal to sell its Dish Network to DirecTV (which is owned by T and TPG).  This comes as SATS will face a $1.98 billion debt payment in November and had just $521 million in cash on-hand as of June 30.  The deal value is rumored to be in the $9 billion neighborhood.  Later, Bloomberg reported that 16 European banks and payment processors are launching an alternative to V and MA called Wero. 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the SEC announced that SAVA had agreed to pay a $40 million settlement over negligence-based non-disclosures. Later, the UK anti-trust regulator approved AMZN’s AI partnership with Anthropic and said it will not refer the matter for more investigation. At the same time, a federal judge ruled AAPL must face a lawsuit over its devices violating user privacy. The judge did throw out claims made based on the “Allow Apps to Request to Track” setting, but let claims related to the “Share Analytics” setting to proceed to trial.  Later, NHTSA announced that TM will recall over 42k vehicles over the loss of power brake assist the extended the braking distance of the vehicles.  At the same time, the NHTSA also announced that MBGAF (Mercedes Benz) is recalling 27k vehicles due to the risk of the engine control software causing the engine to overheat. 

Elsewhere, the NHTSA announced that MZDAF (Mazda) is recalling 77k SUVs over a software error that could cause front airbags to deploy with excessive force.  At the same time, Chinese authorities discouraged companies from buying NVDA AI chips as Beijing tried to boost its own Chinese chipmakers.  (However, this is mostly a PR move at this point since there are no known Chinese-made AI chips anywhere near as powerful as the limited ones NVDA is allowed to sell China.)  Later, the Dept. of Trans. fined ACDVF (Air Canada) $250k for operating flights in 2022 and 2023 over prohibited Iraqi airspace.  At the same time, the EU fined META $101.5 million for storing user passwords with no protection or encryption.  Later, a US District judge announced he will hold a hearing on Oct. 11 to receive the objections of crash victim’s families to the BA plea deal.  At the same time, the FDA approved a GEHC diagnostic drug used for the detection of heart disease.  On Saturday, TKO agreed to pay $375 million to settle a class-action lawsuit alleging the company had colluded with other martial arts groups to tamp-down the compensation of fighters.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, there were 4.6 million customers without power in the Southeast US following Hurricane Helene.  (At least 64 people were also killed.) Meanwhile, the UD Dept. of Commerce said US car sales could fall about 26k per year under proposed rules barring Chinese vehicles over software internet connection (sending data to China). For reference, US auto sales were 15.5 million in 2023 and were up about 3.5% in the first half of 2024.

In Middle East news, Israel continued its attacks on Lebanon Friday with airstrikes that leveled six hi-rise apartment buildings.  The IDF said the target of the attack was the leader of Hezbollah. However, they also destroyed a very densely-populated Beirut neighborhood.  In addition, many hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have fled as refugees to other cities and countries as well as 250k that are now living on the streets to avoid being near buildings. Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu told the UN General Assembly that the Lebanese people were to blame for forcing Israel to attack and kill them. He went on to say that their attacks will continue. Meanwhile, the IDF also called up reserves to the Lebanese border and is currently practicing for another ground invasion of Lebanon.

On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed their leader Nasrallah had, in fact, been killed. (It is worth noting Israel also assassinated his predecessor in 1992.)  In addition, Lebanon reported nearly 1000 people have been killed and several thousand others wounded by Israeli strikes in the last week. Various EU countries condemned the Israeli attacks and called for an end to hostilities by both sides. Meanwhile, Israel rejected a cease-fire deal put forth by the US in the same way it rejected a Gaza cease-fire. On Sunday, Israel increased its bombing (terror?) campaign with more strikes in Lebanon, the West Bank (Palestinian), and also expanded with strikes on Houthi Rebels in Yemen. Israel also ramped up its rhetoric threatening Iran over the weekend. The overall point, is that Israel seems to be intent on all-out regional war (with US arms and support in its back pocket).  So, the region as well as Middle Eastern oil, gas, and shipping routes are under greater threat as a broader regional conflict seems much more likely than it was a week ago.

Overnight, Asian markets were very mixed with five of the 12 exchanges in the region showing green. However, massive Chinese moves of Shenzhen (+10.67%), Shanghai (+8.06%), and Hong Kong (+2.43%) led the region higher as that country reacts to more stimulus.  On the other side, Japan (-4.80%), Taiwan (-2.62%), and South Korea (-2.13%) paced the losses.  In Europe, with the sole exception of Norway (+0.07%) we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-1.62%), DAX(-0.63%), and FTSE (-0.76%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward modestly red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.14% open, the SPY is implying a -0.21% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.29% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.768% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.78% to $67.66 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to September Chicago PMI.  However, we also hear from Fed Governor Bowman (8:50 a.m.) and Fed Chair Powell (1:55 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open Monday are limited to CCL.  However, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

In geopolitical news, Reuters reported Thursday that a senior Pentagon official said that China’s newest nuclear-powered submarine sank earlier this year.  Apparently, the first-in-class Chinese nuclear attack sub sank alongside its pier sometime between May and June.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get September S&P Global Mfg. PMI, August Construction Spending, September ISM Mfg. Employment, September ISM Mfg. PMI, September ISM Mfg. PMI Price Index, August JOLTs Job Openings, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  We also hear from Fed Member Bostic twice (11 a.m. and 6:15 p.m.).  Then Wednesday, September ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 11 a.m.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September S&P Global Services PMI, September S&P Global Composite PMI, August Factory Orders, September ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.   We also hear from Fed member Bostic at 10:40 a.m.  Finally, on Friday, September Avg. Hourly Earnings, September Nonfarm Payrolls, September Participation Rate, September Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and September Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed member Williams.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from AYI, MKC, PAYX, UNFI, CALM, LW, and NKE.  Then Wednesday, CAG, RPM, and LEVI report.  On Thursday, we hear from STZ.  However, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In overnight news, DirecTV (owned by T and TPG) finally agreed to acquire Dish Network (owned by SATS).  The move creates a network with 20 million subscribers.  As part of the deal, DirecTV will assume $9.75 billion in debt.  However, Dish shareholders will need to agree to a $1.57 billion haircut on that debt.  As part of the deal, T will sell its 70% stake in DirecTV to TPG for $7.6 billion.  (T originally bought its share of DirecTV for a little over $14 billion.) Elsewhere, more stimulus in China spiked global iron ore by 11% as Chinese cities agreed to ease home-buying restrictions.

With that background, it looks like the Bears are pushing this morning. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket flat, but have traded lower, printing black-body candles with little wick. DIA has the smallest candle in the early session. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended above its T-line (8ema). Still, the T2122 indicator is back up in the middle of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction, but the Bears have more slack to work with today if they can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA (-2.87%) leads the losses and has more than twice the dollar-volume of the next closest, which is TSLA (-0.61%).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped higher on Thursday, supposedly in response to MU’s beat and raise from Wednesday night.  SPY gapped 0.79%, DIA gapped up 0.50%, and QQQ gapped up 1.58%.  However, that was about it for the Bulls as the SPY and QQQ sold off until about 1:30 p.m.  At that point those two major index ETFs bounce about half way back to their open by 2 p.m. and ground sideways the rest of the day.  Meanwhile, after its own gap higher, DIA just meandered sideways around that opening level all day.  This action gave us gap-up, black-bodied candles with significant lower wicks in the SPY and QQQ.  It is worth noting that SPT also printed a new all-time high and a new all-time high close. As for DIA, it printed a gap-up, white-bodied, Spinning Top Bull Harami inside its recent consolidation. This all happened on below-average volume in the DIA and QQQ as well as well-below-average volume in SPY.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green with Basic Materials (+2.33%) far out in front, leading the rest of the market higher. On the other side, Energy (-1.97%) lagged far, far behind the other sectors. At the same time, SPY gained 0.40%, DIA gained 0.60%, and QQQ gained 0.75%.  VXX closed flat at 48.48 and T2122 spiked back up into the lower half of its overbought territory at 85.90.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.796% while Oil (WTI) dropped another 3.21% to close at $67.45 per barrel. (The drop in oil came on a combination of factors.  Even mor China stimulus, a modest de-escalation in Israeli-Hezbollah attacks, and OPEC+ publishing a highly bullish long-term oil demand forecast.)  So, the three major index ETFs opened divergently, but on small moves.  From there the move happened in the morning with the afternoon being just a dead-money grind sideways. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in a bit lighter than expected at 218k (compared to a forecast of 224k and a previous week value of 222k).  At the same time, the Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were a bit higher than predicted at 1,834k (versus a 1,828k forecast and the prior week’s 1,821k number).  Meanwhile, Preliminary August Core Durable Goods Orders (month-on-month) came in stronger than anticipated at +0.5% (versus a +0.1% forecast and July’s -0.1% reading).  On the headline side, Preliminary August Durable Goods Orders (month-on-month) were flat at 0.0% (compared to a forecast of -2.8% and well down from July’s blowout +9.9% value).  At the same time, Q2 Core PCE Prices were exactly as expected at +2.80% (compared to a forecast and prior quarter reading of +2.80%).  In terms of Gross Domestic Product, Q2 GDP was +3.0% (versus a +3.0% forecast and well up from Q1’s +1.6%).  On the price side, the Q2 GDP Price Index was down as expected at +2.5% (compared to the +2.5% forecast and Q1’s +3.0% value).  Later, August Pending Home Sales were up, but below the anticipated numbers at +0.6% (versus a +0.9% forecast but much better than July’s -5.5% reading).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $29 billion contraction for the week, from $7.109 trillion to $7.080 trillion.

In Fed news, Fed Governor Bowman was contrary to what other Fed governors and FOMC members have been touting for months.  She told a Mid-size Bank Coalition of America workshop that “use of the Fed’s discount window is for emergencies, rather than for more usual liquidity needs.”  This is a start contrast to the Chair and her peers who have been trying to get more banks to use the facility more.  Bowman went on to say that she fears “unintended consequences” of banks posting collateral at the Fed Discount Window.  Later, in a pre-recorded opening remarks video for the Annual US Treasury Market Conference, Fed Chair Powell recalled the “flash crash” in 2014 and praised inter-agency cooperation that got us through that as well as the pandemic crisis.  A few minutes later, NY Fed President Williams announced the creation of a new committee at the NY Fed, the Reference Rate Use Committee, to study the use of interest rate benchmarks across various financial markets.  (How the use of reference rates is changing and the underlying markets are changing due to electronic trading and globalization of markets for example.) 

Later, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr told the Treasury Market Conference that the Fed is considering new requirements for banks to improve their liquidity. He said, smaller (community) banks would be excluded but that big banks would be required to keep a minimum level of liquid reserves as well as pre-positioned collateral at the Fed Discount Window.  Bass said this would be on a “tiered basis” with larger cash reserve requirements for larger banks. Shortly afterward, Treasury Sec. Yellen said that labor market and inflation data suggest the US economy is on a “soft landing path” as the “last mile” in taming inflation is bringing housing costs down.  She said, “I always believed that there was a path to a soft landing, that it was possible to bring inflation down while maintaining a strong labor market, and to me, that’s what the data suggests has happened.”  She went on to say that U.S. deficit reduction was necessary to keep interest costs manageable over time, but added that the Biden administration thought it important to continue to invest in parts of the economy that would fuel future growth.  She continued by saying that banks are well capitalized but stressed the importance of the Fed Discount Window in ensuring stability during times of stress.

In other Fed news, Fed Governor Cook told an Ohio State University event that she whole-heartedly supported at 50-basis-point rate cut by the FOMC last week.  Cook said, “That decision reflected growing confidence that, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, the solid labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate economic growth and inflation continuing to move sustainably down to our target.”  She continued, “The return to balance in the labor market between supply and demand, as well as the ongoing return toward our inflation target, reflects the normalization of the economy after the dislocations of the pandemic.”  Cook went on, “This normalization, particularly of inflation, is quite welcome, as a balance between supply and demand is essential for sustaining a prolonged period of labor-market strength.”

After the close, BB, COST, and SCHL all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that BB and SCHL both had massive misses on revenue.

In stock news, on Thursday, the UAW announced that it had reached a tentative deal with F related to the River Rouge tool and die unit. At the same time, MSFT announced it plans to invest $2.7 billion in Brazil over the next three years to enhance its cloud computing infrastructure.  Later, V agreed to buy British IP Group’s Featurespace unit (which uses AI to provide “payment protection”) for $935 million according to the UK’s Sky News.  At the same time, the CEO of STLA told Reuters that he wants to follow the Chinese “low-cost mindset” in its EV production.  This came even as he attacked the EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, such as those in which STLA has an ownership stake. Later, Reuters also reported that C and APOS have formed a joint-venture $25 billion private credit and direct lending program. At the same time, GOOGL announced it will invest $3.3 billion to build two data centers in SC. 

Elsewhere, IT trade news outlet The Information reported AMZN has already amassed its goal of $1.8 billion in ad-spending pledges for 2025 for its video-streaming service. In marginally noteworthy news, a major insider and top-three shareholders of DJT has sold almost all of his company stock holdings.  Andrew Litinsky sold 7.5 million shares (5.5% of DJT stock), leaving him with 100 shares.  At the same time, LUV, AAL, and DAL canceled over 1,200 flights and delayed more than 4,100 due to Hurricane Helene.  Later, Bloomberg reported that LVMHF founder Arnault had lost $24 billion of his personal fortune this year.  However, on Thursday, China gave the greenlight to massive stimulus, causing traders to bet on sales gains by his LVMHF luxury goods.  The 9.9% stock price increase netted the tycoon a +17 billion day, increasing his net worth to $201 billion.  After the close, MTN announced it will cut 14% of its “corporate workforce” and less than 1% of operational employees, as it seeks to cut $100 million in costs annually by 2026.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, WFC announced it had sent the Fed a third-party review of its risk and control overhauls.  This is a critical step toward getting the Fed to lift the bank’s $1.95 trillion asset cap, which was imposed because of WFC’s lax controls and fraudulent back-dating of accounts.  Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that SMCI is being investigated by the US Dept. of Justice related to its accounting practices. (The report said the investigation is just in its early, data-gathering stage.) At the same time, the NHTSA announced that GM will recall over 18k vehicles over brake line problems.  Later, East Coast port employers filed a NRLB complaint against the Intl. Longshoreman Assn. for unfair labor practices. The filing alleges the union refuses to resume talks prior to its scheduled strike on October 1.

Elsewhere, the FTC issued the previously-rumored consent decree which approves the CVX $53 billion acquisition of HES.  However, as a condition of the approval, the HES CEO is barred from taking a board seat on CVS.  Later, the NTSB issued an urgent safety recommendation on rudder control systems for some BA 737 airplanes after an investigation of a February incident involving a jammed rudder on a UAL 737 MAX 8.  At the same time, the SEC announced that DKNG has agreed to pay a $200k penalty to settle charges of selectively disclosing of material non-public information via social media. After the close, the TX Public Utility Commission unanimously approved an expansion of its ERCOT electric grid to improve access for COP, XOM, FANG, CVX, and DVN.  (This is of note because the TX electric grid is already stretched and the pre-approval report said it expects the oil and gas drillers could account for almost one-third of the state’s summer electric usage by 2038.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, BAC analysts released a report claiming that certain sectors outperform in a steepening yield curve environment such as should be created by a Fed rate-cutting cycle.  BAC said, Healthcare and rising momentum lead sector performance during a Bull Market steepening.  On the other side, BAC said Basic Resources and High Risk stocks tend to outperform during Bear Market yield curve steepening.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported OPEC+ plans to go ahead with oil production increases (180k barrels per day) in December. Saudi Arabia was committed to the increase and Russia strongly opposed. In addition, OPEC+ will drop its unofficial $100/barrel price target in order to win back market share (from the US, Canada, China and Brazil).  Meanwhile, silver closed at its highest level since 2012 and gold hit a record level on Thursday.

In geopolitical news, Reuters reported Thursday that a senior Pentagon official said that China’s newest nuclear-powered submarine sank earlier this year.  Apparently, the first-in-class Chinese nuclear attack sub sank alongside its pier sometime between May and June.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red with seven of the 12 regional exchanges under break-even.  Even so, the big moves were all on the plus side as Shenzhen (+6.71%) was WAY OUT FRONT followed by Hong Kong (+3.55%), Shanghai (+2.88%), and Japan (+2.32%).  In Europe, the picture is mostly green with only three of 14 bourses in the red.  The CAC (+0.29%), DAX (+0.84%), and FTSE (+0.54%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:40 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just on the red side of break-even.  The DIA implies a -0.01% open, the SPY is implying a -0.05% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.14% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down a bit to 3.789% and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at $67.79 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes the August Core PCE Price Index, August PCE Price Index, August Personal Spending, August Goods Trade Balance, and August Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are pushing back after a gap down to start the premarket. All three major index ETFs gapped lower to start the early session, but all three have also put in decisive white-body candles since that open to get back to even. Obviously, all three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended above its T-line (8ema) after Thursday’s gap and then black-body candle. However, the T2122 indicator is back up in the lower half of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction, but the Bulls still clearly have momentum and the Bears have more slack to work with today if they can reverse sentiment. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split with five in the red and five in green. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA (-0.56%) leads the losses and has twice the dollar-volume of the next closest, which is TSLA (+0.83%) and that second dog is leading the gainers. Finally, remember it is Friday and the next to last trading day of the month. So, prepare your account for the weekend news cycle and don’t forget to pay yourself…lock-in profits where you can.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Wednesday, stocks opened up undecided.  SPY opened down 0.01%, DIA opened 0.10% higher, and QQQ opened 0.09% lower. From that point, DIA immediately began to sell off, reaching the lows of the day at 1:40 p.m.  Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ rallied modestly after the open, reversing and beginning to selloff at 10:20 a.m. They both reached their lows between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m.  After that, all three major index ETFs traded sideways in a tight range along the lows.  This action gave us a large black-bodied Bearish Engulfing candle that retested and stayed above its T-line (8ema).  At the same time, SPY printed a black-bodied, indecisive Spinning Top.  Finally, QQQ gave us a white-bodied Inverted Hammer type candle (not a Shooting Star due to a gap lower not up).  This happened on well-below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-1.79%) far out in front leading the rest of the market lower. On the other side, Utilities (+0.26%) held up much better than the other sectors and was the only green on the sector board.  At the same time, SPY fell 0.22%, DIA dropped 0.71%, and QQQ gained 0.09%.  VXX closed up 1.36% to 48.41 and T2122 plummeted down to the center of its mid-range at 59.68.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields jumped to close at 3.791% while Oil (WTI) dropped 2.40% to close at $69.84 per barrel. (The drop in oil came on a combination of factors.  Even mor China stimulus, a modest de-escalation in Israeli-Hezbollah attacks, and OPEC+ publishing a highly bullish long-term oil demand forecast.)  So, the three major index ETFs opened divergently, but on small moves.  From there the move happened in the morning with the afternoon being just a dead-money grind sideways. 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included August Building Permits which came in up but slightly lighter than expected at 1.470 million (compared to forecast of 1.475 million and the July reading of 1.406 million). Meanwhile, August New Home Sales were down but better than predicted at 716k (versus a forecast of 699k and the July value of 751k).  This was a 4.7% decline on a month-on-month basis. Later, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a much bigger decline than expected at -4.471 million barrels (compared to a forecast calling for a 1.300-million-barrel draw and prior week reading of 1.630 million barrels. 

In Fed news, Fed Governor Kugler said Wednesday that she “strongly supported” the half percent rate cut at last week’s FOMC meeting.  Kugler said, “The labor market remains resilient, but the FOMC now needs to balance its focus so we can continue making progress on disinflation while avoiding unnecessary pain and weakness in the economy.”  She continued, “I strongly supported last week’s decision and, if progress on inflation continues as I expect, I will support additional cuts.”

After the close, MU and WS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, CNXC bear on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, FUL and JEF missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Wednesday, the union that represents striking BA workers in the Pacific Northwest told Reuters that the workers are not interested in the latest offer from the company.  (BA called that offer their “best and final” offer.)  At the same time, unions for LUV workers announced company plans to reduce service to and from Atlanta in 2025 as part of cost cutting plans.  This will lead to the loss of an unspecified number of jobs.  Later, VLKAF (Volkswagen) flatly rejected union calls for more talks as the unions threaten strikes following a bitter first round of negotiations over potential German plant closures.  At the same time, META unveiled new Augmented Reality glasses and AI updates.  Later, STLA and French nuclear fuel firm Orano announced they are dropping a previously planned joint venture to recycle electric car batteries. Meanwhile, MRK announced bad results from a late-stage trial for its experimental colorectal cancer drug. (441 trial participants who took the drug did not show significant improvement in survival compared to existing treatments.) 

Later, PYPL announced it will allow merchants to buy, hold, and sell cryptocurrency from their business accounts.  After the close, PFE withdrew its sickle cell disease treatment Oxbryta from all markets worldwide and discontinued all studies and programs related to the treatment.  (This decision was “based on the totality of clinical data, which indicates the benefits of the drug o not outweigh the risks” according to a PFE statement.)  PFE reported $92 million in revenue from Oxbryta in Q2.  At the same time, SPR announced it will begin employee furloughs in three weeks unless the BA strike in the Pacific Northwest ends before that time.  Later, BX confirmed previous rumors that it has invested $13.3 billion in an AI data center in the Northeast England.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that SDXOF (France’s Sodexo) is strongly considering a big to takeover rival ARMK.  (ARMK share spiked in after-hours trading.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, BAC (Merrill lynch subsidiary) agreed to pay $3.8 million to settle two SEC charges related to investment limits and fees. At the same time, Australia’s securities regulator fined fund giant Vanguard $9 million for misleading claims about its ethical and green investment funds.  Later, the NHTSA announced that STLA will recall 15,000 Fiat vehicles in the US due to software errors that may cause airbags to deploy with excessive force.  At the same time, GOOGL filed a complaint with the European Commission against what it alleges are anti-competitive practiced by MSFT to lock their customers into the MSFT Azure cloud computing platform.  Later, X announced that an arbitration board has ruled in favor of Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion buyout of the company.  However, the United Steelworkers which represents the vast majority of X employees said it disagreed with the decision and this did not change its opposition to the deal. 

Meanwhile, Transportation Sec. Buttigieg and Acting Labor Sec. Su wrote a letter to the CEOs of CSX, CNR, and CP urging the companies to guarantee paid sick leave for all workers. (The letter said 10k of their workers do not have paid sick leave.  A rail trade group responded by saying that 60% of rail workers do have paid sick leave…as if that was something to exclaim.) Later, GOOGL, GS, BCSF, BNS, LEGH, and CELH agreed to pay a combined $3.8 million in penalties to the SEC to settle charges over late filings and disclosures.  At the same time, CSLLY received a $121 million contract from the HHS Dept. to increase the US stockpile of bird flu vaccine to 40 million doses.  After the close, AEO sued AMZN alleging the ecommerce giant infringed on its Aerie trademarks on clothing and accessories.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, US ports along the East Coast and Gulf Coast extended their delivery hours for importers as companies rush to clear cargo through the ports ahead of a potential and looming strike on October 1.  (The strike could cover five of the top 10 busiest ports in the US.)  Elsewhere, a global banking trade group (Inst. Of Intl. Finance) reported Wednesday that global debt rose to a record $312 trillion at the end on Q2. This resulted in a global debt-to-GDP ratio of 327%.  Oddly, the “developed countries” ratio fell to its lowest level since 2018, driven by declines in household and non-financial corporate sector borrowing.  Later, a group of House GOP members, led by the Chair of the Select Committee on China, said Wednesday that the panel’s top priority is legislation to prevent US investment in China.  The group painted the issue as needing to stop US investors from funding our own country’s demise (by funding the enemy China).  Many Democrats are more than willing to go along with such initiatives as Populism and Nationalism has apparently completely replaced free trade and “the invisible hand of the market” philosophies.

In government funding news, after the close, the House passed a stop-gap spending continuing resolution to fund government operations through December 20.  The move comes after MAGA extremists lost their bid to tie a voter suppression amendment to the bill.  The bill passed 341-82 with all “no votes” being cast by Republicans.  (As a side note, this leaves House Speaker Johnson in the same predicament as his ousted predecessor, having had to go against the MAGA wing of his party in order to actually govern.  There is no word on whether a move will be made to oust Johnson, but it is doubtful prior to the election since Republicans don’t want to refresh the view of their party as wholly dysfunctional, having passed no legislation of any meaning and caused potential shutdowns seven different times since January 2023.  Number eight comes on December 20.)  Senate Majority Leader Schumer had prepared for the last-minute wrangling by putting a placeholder on the Senate schedule.  So, the Senate voted on the bill from the House and passed it 78-18.  The bill now goes to the President, where it will be signed.

Overnight, global markets have been given a leg up by MU’s beat and forecast raise last night. MU raised Q3 guidance a half billion higher than estimates to $8.7 billion for the quarter. As a result, all tech-related and chip names in particular soared higher. Asian markets were mostly green with just three of the 12 exchanges in the red.  Shenzhen (+4.44%), Hong Kong (+4.16%), and Shanghai (+3.61%) led broad and strong gains across the region.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape as 12 of the 14 bourses are well into the green.  The CAC (+1.50%), DAX (+1.14%), and lagging FTSE (+0.16%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m.), Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.42% open, the SPY is implying a +0.76% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.42% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.77% and Oil (WTI) has dropped another 2.73% to $67.77 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, August Core Durable Goods Orders, August Durable Goods Orders, Q2 Core PCE Prices, Q2 GDP, and Q2 GDP Price Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), August Pending Home Sales (10 a.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman (9:15 a.m.), Fed Chair Powell (9:20 a.m.), Fed member Williams (9:25 a.m.), Fed Vice Chair Barr (10:30 a.m.), Treasury Sec. Yellen (11:15 a.m.), Fed Vice Chair Barr (1 p.m.), and Fed member Kashkari (1 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to ACN, KMX, JBL, and SNX.  Then, after the close, BB, COST, and SCHL report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, August Core PCE Price Index, August PCE Price Index, August Personal Spending, August Goods Trade Balance, August Retail Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

So far this morning, ACN and JBL reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, KMX beat on revenue while missing by a penny on earnings.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are charging this morning on that MU forecast optimism. All three major index ETFs gapped up significantly to start the premarket. However, SPY and DIA have printed tiny Doji candles since while QQQ has followed-through with a decent-size white-body candle that is now within 2% of its all-time highs. It is worth noting that SPY sits at a new all-time high by three-quarters of a percent in the early session. Obviously, all three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, QQQ is extended far above its T-line (8ema) after the premarket gap up. However, the other two major index ETFs are not yet too far extended above their T-lines. However, the T2122 indicator is back down in the middle of its mid-range. So, markets may have room to run either direction, but the Bulls clearly have momentum early and the Bears have much more slack to work with today if they can reverse sentiment. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green with INTC (+2.89%), AMD (+2.54%), and NVDA (+2.27%) leading the gains. As usual, However, that biggest dog, NVDA, is leading the dollar-volume traded this morning by a factor of three compared to any other ticker.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets were mostly undecided and treading water again Tuesday. To the extent there was any directionality, it was slightly bullish.  SPY opened 0.15% higher, DIA opened 0.12% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.30%.  From there, all three major index ETFs sold off the first hour, rallied the second hour, and then ground sideways the rest of the day popping back up to the highs the last five minutes of the day.  All three major index ETFs remain above their T-line (8ema).  This action gave us a white-bodied Spinning Top in the DIA.  At the same time, SPY printed a white-bodied Hanging Man.  Finally, QQQ printed a white-bodied candle somewhere in between a Hanging Man and a Spinning Top, that sits right at a resistance level from the August highs. This happened on below-average volume in all three of the major index ETFs.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green, with Basic Materials (+1.97%) well out in front leading the rest of the market higher. On the other side, Financial Services (-0.39%) and Utilities (-0.37%) lagged well behind the other sectors. At the same time, SPY gained 0.29%, DIA gained 0.24%, and QQQ gained 0.48%.  VXX was flat, ending up to 47.76 and T2122 climbed a bit into the middle of its over-bought range to close at 90.96.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell a bit to close at 3.732% while Oil (WTI) gained 1.66% to close at $71.54 per barrel on supply fears led by Israeli escalation of attacks on Lebanon.  So, markets were slightly bullish on what was largely a non-committal, undecided day with traders making few bets as markets drifted sideways much of the day.  SPY and DIA both closed at new all-time high closes.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to Conference Board Consumer Confidence, which came in lower at 98.7 (compared to a forecast of 103.9 and well down from August’s 105.6 reading).  Later, after the close, Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks had a much larger drawdown than expected at -4.339 million barrels (compared to a forecasted 1.100-million-barrel drawdown and far different than the previous week’s 1.960-million-barrel inventory build). 

In Fed news, Fed Governor Bowman (probably the most hawkish permanent member of the FOMC board) explained her lone dissent to the FOMC’s half percent rate cut last week.  She told a KY Banker’s Assn. that inflation gauges “remain uncomfortably above” the Fed’s 2% target. Therefore, she opposed a half-percent cut and instead supported a quarter percent reduction.  Bowman said, “The U.S. economy remains strong and core inflation remains uncomfortably above our 2% target.” She continued, “I preferred a smaller initial cut in the policy rate while the U.S. economy remains strong and inflation remains a concern.”  Bowman explained, “I continue to see greater risks to price stability, especially while the labor market continues to be near estimates of full employment (4.2%).”  She also said that she feared a rate cut would “unleash a considerable amount of pent-up demand and cash on the sidelines” (thus, possibly reigniting inflation).

After the close, KBH reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, oil and gas operators in the Gulf of Mexico scaled back or shut down operations ahead of a storm predicted to become a hurricane Wednesday.  SHEL, CVX, and BP were the headline names that evacuated rigs in the gulf.  At the same time, as previously revealed, SMAR announced it will be acquired by BX and Vista Equity Partners in a $8.4 billion all-cash deal ($56.50/share). Later, BIIB released results promising from a Phase 3 study of its lupus treatment.  At the same time, the Chairman of Nippon Steel publicly asked the United Steelworkers union to “come to the table” to find a resolution allowing Nippon Steel to acquire X.  Later, about 2,000 hotel workers walked off the job in a strike at the largest HLT hotel in the world in HI. (Overall, 4,000 hotel workers struck HLT in Honolulu, Sandiego, and San Francisco.)  At the same time, KO announced that it is pulling its “Spiced Coke” flavor and said it was discontinuing the flavor.  This comes less than six months after KO announced the new “permanent flavor” was intended to target younger drinkers.

Elsewhere, Elliott Management announced it would request a special meeting of the board of LUV as soon as next week as the activist investor seeks to push out the CEO.  Later, AMCI Testing announced that TSLA Full Self-Driving software is still “suspect” and requires improvement to ensure robotaxi safety.  (The testing company said that a 1,000-mile evaluation found that the software required human intervention 75 times and the time between required human interventions decreased as the test went on.)  At the same time, the Teamsters Unions announced it had reached a four-year deal with BWA, covering 700 workers.  (This ends a two-week strike at BWA.)  Later, MSFT announced it will spend $1.3 billion in Mexico over the next three years to build out cloud computing infrastructure.  After the close, Reuters reported that negotiations remain at a standstill between MPC and the Teamsters Union as the strike at MPC refineries enters its third week.  At the same time, regulatory filings showed that BRKB sold another $863 million of BAC stock between September 20 and September 24.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday the Dept. of Justice sued V for allegedly conducting an illegal monopoly over debit cards.  The suit accuses V of using “exclusionary agreements” with partners to prevent and smother potential rivals in that space. Later, BVNRY received a $63 million order from the US government to produce bulk and freeze-dried smallpox and Mpox vaccines.  At the same time, the UK anti-trust watchdog agency said that “concerns remain” over GOOGL ad-privacy plans.  (This is GOOGL’s plans to retain third-party cookies in the Chrome browser for better targeting ads.)  Later, the FTC announced that INVH agreed to pay a $48 million fine for deceiving renters about their lease costs. 

Meanwhile, the US State Dept. approved the sale of $740 million of Stinger missiles (made by RTX) to Egypt.  At the same time, a Brazilian state announced they had signed a $180 million deal with AMZN and five other companies, selling the companies carbon credits and the money to purportedly be used for conservation of the Amazon region.  After the close, META announced it will not immediately join the EU’s AI Pact ahead of bloc’s new AI law comes into effect.  At the same time, a federal judge ruled a NY City law requiring DASH, GRUB, and UBER to share the end customer data with restaurants.  The judge ruled the law violated the First Amendment by regulating commercial speech.

In geopolitical news, on Tuesday, Israel continued its new campaign of attacks on Lebanon (Hezbollah).  After 1,300+ Israeli attacks Monday killed more than 500 and wounded thousands, on Tuesday they launched several dozen additional attacks, killing at least dozens more.  In response, Hezbollah fired 300 rockets into Israel.  As the rest of the world called for de-escalation and the stop of illegal bombings, Israeli PM Netanyahu said the attacks will not end.  He urged the Lebanese people to change governments and throw out Hezbollah “before that group leads them into the abyss” (i.e. gets them bombed to rubble by Israel).  Meanwhile, the IDF spokesman called on the people of Southern Lebanon to move away from buildings and gatherings “for their own safety.”  Oil prices initially spiked on Monday, but retreated as the attacks cooled Monday night.  However, another spike took place Tuesday as the attacks resumed.

In overnight news, Asia was buoyed Wednesday by more stimulus from Beijing.  The People’s Bank of China (central bank) lowered the rate charged on one-year loans by more than it has ever been lowered before.  This comes on top of the broad package of stimulus announced Tuesday.  As a result, the Chinese yuan rose to more the seven per US dollar for the first time in 16 months. Elsewhere, SAP stock took a hit on news that the US is investigating the German software giant for over-charging US agencies over the course of a decade.

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly mixed with six exchanges in the red and six in the green.  Taiwan (+1.47%), Shenzhen (+1.21%), and Shanghai (+1.16%) led the gainers while South Korea (-1.34%) and Singapore (-1.09%) were by far the biggest losers.  In Europe, markets are mostly green at midday with four of 14 bourses in the red.  The CAC (-0.33%), DAX (-0.43%), and FTSE (+0.27%) lead the region on volume as usual in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.07% open, the SPY is implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.15% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.76% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.63% to $71.10 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes August Building Permits (8:30 a.m.), August New Home Sales (10 a.m.), and Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to CTAS.  Then, after the close, CNXC, FUL, JEF, MU, and WS report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, August Core Durable Goods Orders, August Durable Goods Orders, Q2 Core PCE Prices, Q2 GDP, Q2 GDP Price Index, August Pending Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  We also hear from Fed Chair Powell, Fed member Williams, Fed Vice Chair Barr, Treasury Sec. Yellen, Fed Vice Chair Barr, and Fed member Kashkari. Finally, on Friday, August Core PCE Price Index, August PCE Price Index, August Personal Spending, August Goods Trade Balance, August Retail Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from CAN, KMX, JBL, SNX, BB, COST, and SCHL.  Finally, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In last minute news mortgage news, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. reports a surge in demand for loans last week.  This was led by a 20% increase in refinance loan applications on the week (week-on-week).  (This was a massive 175% increase over the same week one year earlier.)  Meanwhile, the loan applications for the purchase of a new home rose 1% week-on-week, but were also 2% higher than the same week of 2023.  The national average 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming-loan interest rate was 6.13% down from 6.15% the week prior., APO (Apollo Global Mgmt.) offered to make a $5 billion “equity-like” investment into INTC. This is both a vote of confidence in INTC, but depending on the board mindset may also offer an alternative to the friendly take-over offer from QCOM. Either way, INTC shares spiked in premarket on the news.

With that background, it looks like the SPY is flat and undecided in the premarket. At the same time, QQQ gapped down a bit but is also undecided at that point. Meanwhile, DIA gapped down the most in the early session, but also has a strong white-bodied candle so far that had climbed back up to positive territory early. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the three major index ETFs are too far extended above their T-lines. However, the T2122 indicator has climbed back into the top half of its overbought range. So, markets may have room to run either direction, but the Bears still have more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the red with AAPL (-0.99%) well out in front leading the losses. However, that biggest dog, NVDA (+0.26%) is among the leader among the gainers and has traded 3x the dollar-volume of any other ticker so far today (normal for NVDA).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was a day where most of the move came at the open.  SPY gapped down by 0.53%, DIA gapped down 0.46%, and QQQ opened 0.17%. From there, all three of the major index ETFs meandered sideways with QQQ having the most volatility, SPY the least, and DIA had a slight bullish trend. All three remain well above their T-line (8ema) and the only other retest was SPY retesting support from above and passing.  This all gave us indecisive candles across all three with long-legged Doji candles in SPY and QQQ while DIA printed a white-bodied Spinning Top candle.  This happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red, with Industrials (-0.83%) and Healthcare (-0.78%) in front of the others leading the rest of the market lower. On the other side, Utilities (+1.68%) were the only sectors in green and held up much, much better than the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.52%, DIA lost 0.20%, and QQQ lost 0.19%.  VXX fell another 0.61% to close at 47.43 and T2122 fell just outside of its over-bought range to the top of its mid-range at 78.17. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.745% while Oil (WTI) fell just 0.25% to close at $71.77 per barrel.  So, Friday was basically modest gap lower and then a dead market as markets seemed to want to get past triple-witching and the weekend. 

There was no major economic news or earnings reports scheduled for Friday.

In Fed news, Fed Governor Waller discussed the FOMC’s half percent rate cut with CNBC.  Waller said that rate cut was the right decision because the economy is strong and inflation is coming down…and the Fed wants to keep it that way.  Waller said that recent data pushed him in the direction of a larger rate cut, while noting “estimates” suggest that core PCE is running below target and that was what pushed him over the edge toward supporting the larger rate cut.  As always, Waller said that future rate decisions will be data dependent and that the FOMC could pause if inflation progress stalls, but he’s also open to another larger cut if the jobs market makes it appropriate.  Finally, Waller said he does not believe the Fed is “behind the curve” (or ahead) and he thinks that inflation is “on the right path.”  Later, Fed Governor Bowman released a statement that her dissenting vote to the FOMC’s half percent rate cut, instead voting for a quarter-point cut, to avoid “a premature declaration of victory over inflation.” She echoed Chair Powell (and Governor Waller) in saying that the economy and job market remain strong, but that “core personal expenditure prices are still rising faster than 2.5% from 12 months earlier.”  Bowman continued, “We have not yet achieved our inflation goal. (So,) I believe that moving at a measured pace toward a more neutral policy stance will ensure further progress in bringing inflation down to our 2% target. This approach would also avoid unnecessarily stoking demand.”  (Her statement did not specifically say so, but apparently, she believes a measured pace is best defined as quarter point rate moves.)

In stock news, on Friday, CEG announced plans to restart the 3-Mile Island nuclear power plant, saying that it had contracted to sell the power to MSFT for use in AI data centers. CEG said it plans to invest $1.6 billion to upgrade and restart the plant. CEG stock gapped up 13% and closed up 22.31% on the news. (However, as of day end, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission said it had not received an application from CEG, which would need to be approved before restarting the plant.)  At the same time, NVO announced disappointing results from a phase 2a trial of its experimental oral anti-obesity drug monlunabant. The trial found patients lost just 6.5% of their body weight over 16 weeks using the once-daily pill.  (NVO fell nearly 5% on the news.)  Later, CAH announced it has agreed to buy private cancer center operator Integrated Oncology Network for $1.12 billion in cash. The move gives CAH access to 100 cancer treatment centers in 10 states for distribution of its drugs. 

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported APOS has been given $5 billion by BNPQY to expand its private credit investments.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that QCOM made a buyout offer for INTC earlier in the week.  This news broke Friday afternoon, and INTC popped 7% on the news, but closed up 3.31%.  (No details on the offer or response were given. However, the Journal said it had three sources, including people on both sides of the offer.) It’s worth noting that even if INTC accepted the offer, there would be huge hurdles in getting regulatory approval…and that approval would need to come from several governments. After the close, BA’s new CEO Ortberg made his first major move by firing the head of the company’s Space and Defense unit, effective immediately. The company name the unit’s COO to assume the duties until a replacement can be found.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, a German court ruled against AMZN and in favor of NOK in the phone company’s patent infringement suit. (The case is over video technologies in streaming devices that AMZN is selling without a NOK license.)  At the same time, AAL asked the US Dept. of Transportation to let it to delay resuming two daily flights to China from the US.  AAL cited lags in travel demand for China that have not recovered from pre-pandemic levels (COVID being the reason the flights were discontinued originally).  (DAL and UAL had both sought the same permission earlier.)  Later, the US Dept. of Energy announced plans to award $3 billion across 25 projects in 14 states in support of battery manufacturing.  ALB, HON, and LUNMF are among the companies receiving these grants.  At the same time, the NHTSA said that F will recall 144k vehicles over rearview camera freezing problems.  Later, the FDA approved AZN’s self-administered nasal spray flu vaccine.  (This is the first of its kind drug approved.) 

Elsewhere, the FDA also approved ZVRA’s drug for a rare and fatal genetic disorder.  (The FDA had previously declined to approve the ZVRA drug and ordered an extended review.)  Later, the SEC ruled that FOX can avoid a vote by shareholders asking it to consider labeling news and opinion shows to distinguish them for viewers as activist investors.  The SEC agreed with FOX that the matter is not a shareholder matter, but rather an “ordinary business decision.”  At the same time, and Italian judge ordered a $84 million seizure of assets and money from the Chairman of STLA related to alleged tax fraud.  Later, the FTC sued UNH, CI, and CVS, alleging that their pharmacy benefits manager units steered patients away from lower-cost insulin to higher-cost products by excluding the lower-cost products from their lists of covered drugs distributed to patients.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced that GM is recalling 450k pickups and SUVs in the US over an inoperative warning light for low brake fluid.

Meanwhile, the conservative US 5^th District Court of Appeals revived a suit brought by drug companies and their trade groups challenging the right of the government to negotiate drug prices.  The court did not address the merits of the case but instead found the TX judge was wrong to dismiss the case in February, saying he did not have jurisdiction to hear the case, even though it was brought in his court. At the same time, SATS received approval from the FCC to buildout the company’s 5G network for Boost Mobile.  (SATS says it plans to cover 80% of the US by the end of 2024.)  Later, the JNJ subsidiary used for the “Texas Two-Step” attempt to avoid the liability of talc lawsuits filed for bankruptcy again (a third time) to advance JNJ’s $10 billion settlement plan that would end tens of thousands of lawsuits.  (JNJ says that 83% of lawsuit claimants have accepted the settlement offer.  JNJ is hoping that the bankruptcy judge will order the settlement to apply to all plaintiffs, instead of just the 83%.)  After the close, the SEC approved options trading on BLK’s Bitcoin spot-price ETF.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the Biden Administration announced it is preparing a new $375 million military aid package for Ukraine.  This package will include HIMARS missiles (made by LMT), as well as 155mm and 105mm artillery shells (made by BAESF).  Elsewhere, in government shutdown news, on Sunday afternoon Speaker of the House Johnson decided to remove the MAGA voter suppression amendment from the government funding continuing resolution.  The revised bill only funds government operations until December 20 (9 weeks) as the GOP hopes to get past this, its SEVENTH shutdown fiasco since taking power in January 2023 (with an eighth cliff-edge then scheduled the week before Christmas).  The Speaker indicated in a letter to his caucus that he would bring a vote on the measure this week, with details still unknown.

In geopolitical news, Israel ramped up regional tensions with more bombing attacks Friday, Saturday and Sunday.  Initially, Lebanon’s Hezbollah group initially responded with rhetoric, but as Israeli attacks continued the group conducted missile attacks further into Israel than has been seen for a long time, with rockets landing near Haifa (on the Mediterranean coast). Meanwhile in Russia, Ukrainian drone attacks destroyed three armament depots in the Moscow region on Saturday and Sunday.  These attacks blew up 60,000 tons of armaments ranging from artillery shells, to rockets, to bombs, to cruise missiles. This included shipments from North Korea. (The value of the destroyed munitions is very likely in the range of many billions of dollars.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with five red exchanges and seven green ones.  Japan (+1.53%) led the gains while Australia (-0.69%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape as there are six red bourses and eight green ones at midday.  The CAC (-0.321%), DAX (+0.48%), and FTSE (-0.20%) lead the region on volume as always.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start modestly on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.06% open, the SPY is implying a +0.14% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up t o3.751% and Oil (WTI) is up half a percent to $71.32 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, and S&P Global Composite PMI (all at 9:45 a.m.). However, we also hear from Fed members Bostic (8 a.m.) and Kashkari (1 p.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  However, after the close, AIR reports.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks.  Then Wednesday, August Building Permits, August New Home Sales, and Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, August Core Durable Goods Orders, August Durable Goods Orders, Q2 Core PCE Prices, Q2 GDP, Q2 GDP Price Index, August Pending Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  We also hear from Fed Chair Powell, Fed member Williams, Fed Vice Chair Barr, Treasury Sec. Yellen, Fed Vice Chair Barr, and Fed member Kashkari. Finally, on Friday, August Core PCE Price Index, August PCE Price Index, August Personal Spending, August Goods Trade Balance, August Retail Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from AZO, THO, KGH, and WOR.  Then Wednesday, CTAS, CNXC, FUL, JEF, MU, and WS report. On Thursday, we hear from CAN, KMX, JBL, SNX, BB, COST, and SCHL.  Finally, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In last minute news, APO (Apollo Global Mgmt.) offered to make a $5 billion “equity-like” investment into INTC. This is both a vote of confidence in INTC, but depending on the board mindset may also offer an alternative to the friendly take-over offer from QCOM. Either way, INTC shares spiked in premarket on the news.

With that background, it looks like the market is indecisive and just on the plus side of break-even in the early session. All three major index ETFs have printed more wick than body, with QQQ having the only appreciable body among those candles. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the three major index ETFs are too far extended above their T-lines. In addition, the T2122 indicator has dropped out of its overbought range, but sits in the top of its mid-range. So, markets may have room to run either direction, but the Bears still have more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the green with INTC (+4.01%) way, way out in front leading gains. However, that biggest dog, NVDA (-0.09%) is among the laggards.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped strongly higher at the open Thursday.  SPY gapped up 1.73%, DIA gapped up 1.39%, and QQQ gapped up a whopping 2.39%.  From that point, all three major index ETFs saw volatility in the first hour, followed by a rally that lasted until about 2 p.m., when a modest selloff took over and lasted the rest of the day.  This action gave us gap-up, indecisive, Doji-type candles.  SPY was a true Doji that printed new all-time high and new all-time high close.  DIA gave us a black Spinning Top that also printed new all-time high and all-time high closes.  Meanwhile, QQQ gave a white Spinning Top that broke its downtrend line (going back to the all-time high in July) and retested, but did not close above, a resistance line running back through the August 22 high.  This all happened on average volume across all three major index ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green, with Technology (+2.73%) out in front of the others leading the rest of the market higher. On the other side, Utilities (-0.21%) and Consumer Defensive (-0.13%) were the only sectors in red.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 1.71%, DIA gained 1.25%, and QQQ gained 2.53%.  VXX fell 4.33% to close at 47.72 and T2122 climbed back into the top half of its over-bought range at 94.74.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.719% while Oil (WTI) popped 1.61% to close at $72.05 per barrel on supply fears caused by Israeli bombing in Lebanon and the Hezbollah Leader saying Israel “crossed red lines” and there would be a reckoning.  So, Thursday was basically a re-think of the Fed policy change resulting in a gap higher.  After that gap, it was just volatility the rest of the day. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in lower than expected at 219k (compared to the 230k forecast and prior week’s 231k).  On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were also down at 1,829k (versus a forecast of 1,850k and a prior week value of 1,843k). At the same time, the Q2 Current Account was lower at -$266.8 billion (compared to a forecast of -$259.0 billion and a Q1 reading of -$241.0 billion).  Meanwhile, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index was much better at 1.7 (versus a forecast of -0.8 and much better than the August -7.0 value).  At the same time, the Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index was much higher at 10.7 (compared to August’s -5.7 reading).  Later, August Existing Home Sales were lower than predicted at 3.86 million (versus a forecast of 3.92 million and July’s 3.96 million number).  At the same time, the August US Leading Economic Index was better than anticipated at -0.2% (compared to a forecast of -0.3% and much better than July’s -0.6% value).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $6 billion decrease at $7.109 trillion (versus the prior week’s $7.115 trillion balance).

After the close, LEN reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, FDX and MLKN missed on both the top and bottom lines.  (FDX missed on earnings by more than 25%.)

In stock news, on Thursday, INTC said it has no plans to divest its majority stake in MBLY.  At the same time, BABA accelerated its efforts to compete in the AI market by releasing 100 open-source large language models and text-to-video AI technology.  (BABA’s competitors like BIDU are primarily pursuing a closed-source approach.) Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that DIS is dumping the CRM-owned worker collaboration tool Slack after the recent hack that exposed more than a terabyte of DIS data.  At the same time, GM’s Cruise unit announced it will begin testing up to five autonomous vehicles in the San Francisco Bay area later this fall.  Later, BRKB’s railroad (BNSF) announce it had reached a tentative deal with the SMART union on a 5-year labor contract.  At the same time, KO announced plans to invest $1 billion in Nigeria operations over the next five years.  Later, TLSA rival NIO announced price cuts on its first car, now starting at $21,210 in China.

Elsewhere, the CWA union announced NYT workers had approved a strike, with 95% voting in favor of a strike.  At the same time, NKE announced its CEO (Donahoe) will step down on October 14 and will be replaced by former NKE senior executive Elliott Hill, who had left after 32 years at NKE.  (CNBC reported Donahoe was being forced out as the board seeks to restructure the company.)  Later, MA announced that they forecast holiday spending will grow by 3% again this year during a shorter-than-usual holiday window.  Meanwhile, GOOGL announced that ads will now be able to run, even when a YouTube video has been paused.  This annoyance may well just be intended to increase sales of YouTube Premium subscription accounts ($13.99/month) which avoids ads altogether. Later, after the close, the CEO of MASI was ousted after activist investor Politan won two board seats during a shareholder proxy vote.  Finally, Bloomberg reported the EU has warned AAPL that it must open up its extremely-guarded iPhone and iPad operating systems to rival technologies OR it will face significant (unspecified) fines.  The report says AAPL was given six months to do this before penalties will begin.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the SEC announced that MQBKY (investment advisor) had agreed to pay $79.8 million to settle charges of overvaluing collateralized mortgage obligations held in its advisory accounts between 2017 and 2021.  At the same time, the Bureau of Land Mgmt. published a key environmental report, which was the last step to approval of IONR’s Rhyolite Ridge lithium mine in NV.  (The mine will produce enough lithium for 370k electric vehicles per year.  F and TM have both agreed to buy lithium from that mine.)  Later, Reuters reported that a criminal investigation is underway at the ET natural gas liquids plant that exploded and has been burning in La Porte TX since Monday. (A body was found in the car that hit the pipeline.)  At the same time, the FDA approved ELAN’s skin disease treatment for dogs.  After the close, the Anti-Defamation League joined a lawsuit alleging INTC has a hostile workplace and has wrongfully discriminated and terminated a former Israeli employee, after that employee accused two executives of openly posting anti-Semitic propaganda tied to the Israeli-Hamas war.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, Reuters reported that pro-Ukraine congressional leaders and the Biden administration are very near an agreement to extend expiration of $6 billion in military aid for Ukraine.  The report indicated that the deal would extend the period during which the President us able to drawdown US military supplies and use the $6 billion to replenish.  If not extended, the $6 billion expires at the end of the month.  Elsewhere, not waiting on the dysfunctional GOP House, the Senate Majority Leader moved a placeholder stop-gap bill through procedural hurdles.  This will allow the Senate to vote on a government funding continuing resolution almost immediately, if the House can get one passed and send it to the Senate.  Meanwhile, Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the national average 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming mortgage rate dropped to 6.09% (down from 6.20% a week prior). 

In Fed rate forecasting, the day following the Fed’s 50-basis-point cut, the Fed Funds Futures market closed while expecting a quarter-point cut in early November and then a half point cut in mid-December.  Specifically, 60.9% of trades expect a quarter-point cut in September, with the other 39.1% predicting a half percent cut at that meeting.  For December, 29.0% forecast a cut to 4.25%-4.50% (a total of a half of a percent lower than the current rate) while 50.5% expect 4.00%-4.25% (three-quarters of a percent lower than current), and 20.5% of trades predict a cut to 3.75%-4.00% (a full percent lower than current, or in other words, expect two cuts of half a percent during the last two meetings of the year).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned toward the green side with just four of the 12 exchanges in the red in that region.  (Note that the Bank of Japan held rates steady.) However, in Europe, we see red across the board at midday after the Bank of England and Norway’s central bank both held rates steady in contrast to the Fed’s big cut Wednesday.  The CAC (-0.72%), DAX (-0.86%), and FTSE (-0.49%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed but down start to Friday.  The DIA implies a +0.03% open, the SPY is implying a -0.25% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.43% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 3.732% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.43% to $71.64 per barrel in early trading.

The only major economic news scheduled for Friday is Fed member Harker speaking at 2 p.m.  There are also no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close.

In overnight news, MBGAF (Mercedes Benz) gave a profit warning and lowered its guidance, citing slow sales in China.  The CEO of Mercedes promised a sales push in China, presumably meaning a lowering of prices as well as introducing new “products” to the Chinese market.  Also, after their bad report, FDX is down more than 12% in premarket trading.  Early Friday, CEG announced it will restart the Three-mile Island nuclear power plant and have contracted to sell the power produced to MSFT.

With that background, it looks like the Bears have control early Friday. All three major index ETFs gapped modestly lower and have printed black-bodied candles since then in the premarket. However, all three remain well above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs. With regard to extension, none of the three major index ETFs are too far extended above their T-lines given the premarket action, but they were getting close as of Thursday’s close. However, the T2122 indicator is back in the top half of its overbought range. So, markets may have room to run either direction, but the Bears definitely have more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red with the two remaining just barely holding onto green territory. NVDA (-0.87%) and INTC (-0.85%) lead the losses while NVDA and TSLA (-0.72%) lead the dollar-volume traded as usual. GOOGL (+0.16%) is holding up better than the other big dogs. Also, bear in mind that today is Friday, pay day, and also triple witching day. So, prepare your account for potential volatility in the afternoon as well as the weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service