On Tuesday, markets continued its rebound after Monday’s brutal gap down.  The SPY gapped up 0.39%, DIA opened 0.12% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.45%. From there, all three major index ETFs rallied most of the day to reach the highs just before 3 p.m.  At that point, all three sold off sharply the last 75 minutes of the day.  This action gave us gap-up, white-bodied Spinning Top candles in all three major index ETFs. However, all three had large upper wicks.  DIA also retested and failed its 50sma from below. This all happened on slightly above-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

For the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Communications Services (+1.41%) leading the way higher.  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (+0.74%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY gained 1.02%, DIA gained 0.88%, and QQQ gained 1.07%. VXX dropped sharply (but not nearly as sharply as it spiked Monday) to close at 72.38.  Meanwhile, T2122 jumped up out of the bottom of its oversold territory into the lower end of the mid-range at 30.68.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields spiked up to 3.902% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.26% to close at $73.13 per barrel.  So, Tuesday saw a modest recovery from Monday’s brutal losses.  However, late profit-taking wiped out much of the bounce.  So, again, volatility was the watchword of the day.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included the June Exports, which came in up at $265.90 billion (compared to a May $262.00 billion value).  On the other side, June Imports were also up, but not quite as much at $339.00 billion (versus a May reading of $337.00 billion).  Together, these resulted in a lower Trade Deficit as the June Trade Balance was at $73.10 billion (higher than the $72.50 billion forecast and down from May’s $75.00 billion reading).  Finally, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks showed a very minor build of 0.180 million barrels (compared to an expected 0.850-million-barrel build and far larger than the prior week’s -4.495-million-barrel drawdown).

At noon, the US EIA released its EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook update.  In it, the EIA increased its 2024 forecasts for US oil demand by 100k barrels per day to 20.5 million bpd. However, it left its world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 102.9 million bpd.  Meanwhile, the EIA predicts US oil production will reach a new record of 13.23 million bpd this year, up 300k bpd.  At the same time, EIA cut its forecast annual avg. oil price for WTI by 2.2% to $80.21 per barrel.  Despite this, the agency expects Brent prices to remain between $85 and $90 by year end.  On the Natural Gas side, the EIA cut its US production forecast to 103.3 billion cubic feet per day (down from the prior forecast of 103.5 bcfpd.

After the close, AMGN, AIZ, AXON, CLW, CPNG, DVA, DVN, EXEL, FBAK, FTNT, GMED, GO, HY, ILMN, CART, IFF, MASI, MRC, PR, SKY, STE, SNEX, LRN, SU, RUN, TOST, and VFC all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AGL, AFG, ASH, PARR, and TRIP missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, IAC, LUMN, RIVN, SVC, and SMCI beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ABNB, ARKO, CRC, ENLC, PLUS, MOS, TSE, and WYNN missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, UAL began negotiations with the Teamster union for a contract related to 10k aviation maintenance and related workers.  At the same time, MSFT fired back at DAL (similar to how CRWD had done on Monday) saying the airline refused help and unlike its competitors had failed to upgrade and maintain its global IT infrastructure.  MSFT said these failures have made the airline’s recovery to normal operations much longer and harder to accomplish than what their peers experienced. Later, SCHW said that high trading volumes and a technical issue with a “key vendor” was the cause of the brokerage’s Monday outage and long customer service wait times.  At the same time, NASA announced Tuesday that problems with BA’s Starliner spacecraft has caused it to push back the next scheduled launch of astronauts for at least one month.  (The most recent Starliner launch remains stuck at the International Space Station since the beginning of June.)  Later, after the close, SMCI announced a 10-for-1 stock split on September 30 (trading split on October 1).  At the same time, Reuters reported that VFC, LEVI, BRKB (via its Fruit of the Loom brand), TPR and TGT are the apparel makers with the biggest exposure to the political turmoil in Bangladesh.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, SPWR filed for to request Chapter 11 bankruptcy and agreed to sell some of its assets for $45 million.  At the same time, the NHTSA released documents at the start of two 10-hour days of hearings into the BA 737 MAX 9 jet mid-air panel blowout incident from January.  Later the UK antitrust regulator announced it has begun its review of the IBM acquisition of HCP.  At the same time, Chinese regulators announced that TSLA will be performing a “remote recall” (over-the-air update) on 1.7 million cars in that country to fix a defect that files to indicate when the hood is latched.  At the same time, the SEC and CFTC announced that PIPR will pay a total of $16 million in civil penalties to resolve investigations into its trading record-keeping practices. (These very innocuous words cover the fact that the cases stem from unauthorized business communications with other traders via off-books communications platforms.  In other words, collusion between major market participants.)

Elsewhere, legal analysts said that Monday’s blockbuster antitrust ruling against GOOGL may actually aid AAPL in its own antitrust case brought by the same Dept of Justice and states).  The only part of the case where the court ruled in favor of GOOGL was in upholding the ultra-conservative SCOTUS ruling that companies (even monopolies) almost never have a duty to deal with competitors.  This is a key point in AAPL’s defense of its own antitrust case. Later, many major advertisers such as CVS, UL, and others as well as a major ad industry group were sued by the former Twitter as Elon Musk alleges, they are unlawfully conspiring to boycott advertising on his social media platform.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board with only Shenzhen (-0.17%) preventing a clean sweep.  Taiwan (+3.87%) continued its big rebound from Monday while South Korea (+1.83%), Hong Kong (+1.38%), and India (+1.27%) led the main pack of gainers.  In Europe, we do see green across the board on multi-percent moves from all 15 bourses at midday.  The CAC (+1.69%), DAX (+1.28%), and FTSE (+1.10%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.86% open, the SPY is implying a +1.25% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.51% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are higher to 3.933% and Oil (WTI) has popped 1.76% to $74.49 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.) and June Consumer Credit (3 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ADV, BCO, BAM, CRL, CCO, SID, CNDT, CRH, CVS, DBD, DDL, EMR, ENOV, GEO, GLP, GPN, GFF, HLT, HMC, IEP, KMT, LPX, LYFT, NEUE, NYT, NI, NOMD, NVO, DNOW, ODP, OGE, OSCR, PLTK, RCM, RL, REYN, ROK, RXO, SHOP, SONY, SUN, TGNA, PRKS, VSTS, VSH, DIS, and ZBH.  Then, after the close, AE, ALTG, DOX, APP, ATO, BHF, CACI, CENT, CENTA, CF, CHRD, CPA, CPAY, CPAY, CAPL, CW, EFXT, ET, ENS, NVST, EQIX, FWRD, HG, HI, HUBS, ICUI, JXN, LNW, MTW, MFC, MRO, MATV, MMS, MCK, MKSI, MODV, MNST, NTR, OXY, PRI, HOOD, RGLD, SBGI, SM, STN, TALO, MODG, UGI, VSAT, WBD, WTS, WES, ZG, and Z report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from WMS, COLD, AVAH, AVT, AZUL, FUN, CQP, LNG, COMM, DDOG, ELAN, LLY, EDR, EPAM, FWONK, ULCC, GTN, HBI, HGV, IHRT, KELYA, KOP, LAMR, LSXMK, LSXMA, MLM, MUR, NXST, NRG, PZZA, PH, PENN, ACDC, RPRX, QSR, SBH, SEE, SN, SPB, TKO, UAA, UA, USFD, VTNR, VTRS, VST, WMG, ATSG, AKAM, AMN, BTG, CIB, CPRI, CENX, BAP, DBX, DXC, SSP, EVH, EXPE, G, GILD, IAG, NWSA, NGL, PAAS, PARAA, PARA, PBA, PBI, RXT, REZI, SOLV, TTWO, TTD, and TTEC.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, CLMT, ROAD, ERJ, EVRG, and NFE report.

So far this morning, BCO, CTTAY, DBD, GPN, HMC, KMT, ADRNY, LPX, LYFT, NYT, OSCR, RCM, REYN, ROK, SHOP, SONY, SUN, VSH, DIS, and ZBH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CRL, CVS, EMR, ENOV, HLT, NI, NOMD, PLTK, and RXO missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BAM, DDL, GEO, and OGE beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line. However, CCO, NVO, DNOW, ODP, and PRKS missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, an independent council charged with governance of carbon credits reported that about one-third of all existing carbon credits fail to meet the new standard.  The new standard is that the ventures from which the credits are bought must not depend on carbon credit sales revenue to exist.  Elsewhere, 110k customers remain without power in Northern FL following the passing of storm Debby.  Meanwhile, the Fed released its Household Debt survey results for Q2.  The headline is that total US Household Debt edged higher (+0.6%) in the quarter, but the rate of loan delinquencies remained at 3.2%.  (For reference, that delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 4.7% at the end of 2019, before the pandemic.)  Elsewhere, overnight the global market recovery was given a boost by hints that the carry trade (borrowing money at negative interest in Japan to invest at a higher rate elsewhere) is not dead.  The Deputy Bank of Japan Governor gave dovish signals by pledging to refrain from hiking interest rates when stock markets are unstable.  (This caused the Yen to fall 2% against the Dollar.)

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are in control early this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket and have printed large, white-body candles (almost no wick) since that gap up. However, be aware that DIA is now retesting its 50sma from below and the SPY and QQQ may also be retesting a potential resistance level above. One candle does not make a trend. So, the short-term trend remains clearly bearish as is the mid-term trend. However, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts are not yet bearish. (For example, look at a Monthly chart. There is no way to call SPY, DIA, or QQQ bearish based on those monthly charts.) In terms of extension, the premarket moves have moved all three major index ETFs back closer to their T-lines above and relief a lot of their over-extension, but more relief may be in order. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now out of its oversold range. So, the market has a little more slack to work with in either direction than it did after Monday’s huge gap down. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green this morning with NVDA (+2.02%) leading the rebound again both in terms of gain and dollar-volume traded. The bottom line is that markets are bullish early today but this may just be a relief rally. Remain cautious and be careful of intraday volatility. The whipsaw is real.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Well, Monday was a brutal day for Bulls and a volatile day for everyone.  SPY gapped down a massive 4.01%, DIA gapped down 2.97%, and QQQ gapped down a whopping 5.45%. However, the chasers got hammered as all three major index ETFs rallied hard off that open level (in a very volatile way) with SPY reaching a high at 12:30 p.m. that was up 2.31% from the open.  At the same time, SPY was up 1.00% from its open and QQQ was up 4.25% from its open at 12:30 p.m. Then, all three started an afternoon wave down that lasted the rest of the day.  DIA even recrossed below its opening level.  This action gave us huge gap-down, white-bodied candles with large upper wicks in the SPY and QQQ. Meanwhile, DIA gave us a huge gape-down, white-bodied Spinning Top candle.  QQQ also retested (and passed the test) its 200sma on the day.  This all happened on much heavier-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-3.02%) leading the charge lower.  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (-2.01%) “held up better” than other sectors but clearly the losses were widespread.  At the same time, SPY dropped 2.91%, DIA fell 2.60%, and QQQ dropped 2.98%. VXX spiked a massive 39.22% to close at 87.26 (the highest level it has seen since October 2023).  VXX (and the underlying VIX) had the largest intraday jump ever during the session.  Meanwhile, T2122 plummeted all the way down to the bottom of its oversold territory at 2.11.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields recovered to close down to 3.777% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.41% to close at $73.81 per barrel.  So, Monday was a brutal day as US markets followed the rest of the world by opening with a huge gap lower.  However, the whiplash was real with a strong (multi-percent) rally off the open and then whipsaw lower in the afternoon hammered the late dip buyers that chased.  In short, there was pain to go around for everybody on Monday with the biggest dose reserved for Bulls that held long going into the weekend.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday included July S&P Global Services PMI, which came in a bit low at 55.0 (compared to a forecast of 56.0 but down just a bit from June’s 55.3 reading).  At the same time, July S&P Global Composite PMI was 54.3 (versus a forecast of 55.0 and down just a bit from June’s 54.8 value).  Later, July ISM Non-Mfg. Employment Index was much stronger than expected at 51.1 (compared to a forecast to 46.4 and a June 46.1 number).  At the same time, July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was up to 51.4 (exactly on the 51.4 forecast and well up from June’s 48.8 value).   Meanwhile, July ISM Non-Mfg. Prices Index was also hotter than anticipated at 57.0 (versus a 56.0 forecast and a June 56.3 number).

In Fed speak news, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told the NY Times said he sees the risk of waiting too long to cut rates.  Goolsbee said, “You only want to be that restrictive if you think there’s fear of overheating.” He continued, “These data, to me, do not look like overheating … as you see jobs numbers come in weaker than expected but not looking yet like recession, I do think you want to be forward-looking at where the economy is headed for (in) making the decisions.”  Goolsbee wanted to be clear that he did not care about the stock market and his remarks were based solely on last week’s data.  He said, “The law doesn’t say anything about the stock market; it’s about the employment and it’s about price stability.”  These remarks came after many analysts and talking heads began calling for “emergency rate cuts” prior to the next scheduled (September 18) FOMC meeting.

After the close, ACM, BRBR, BMRN, BCC, BWXT, CBT, CRGY, CSX, FANG, EHC, KMPR, PLTR, PRIM, O, and STRL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AHR, FG, HUN, JELD, OKE, SUM, VSTO, WMB, and YUMC missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, FNF and SPG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, AAN, CAR, and SPR missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Monday, in search of some bad headline relief, INTC announced it is in the process of getting $383 million of ASML’s newest technology “High NA” EUV tools.  At the same time, IQVIA Data published research showing that LLY’s Zepbound has gained ground on NVO’s Wegovy in the lucrative GLP-1 weight-loss drug market.  The report said that LLY’s drug now has about 40% of the market compared to 60% for NVO’s drug.  (Some analysts see this market reaching $150 billion annually in the US by the early 2030s.)  Meanwhile, Reuters reported that private candy giant Mars is considering acquiring K in order to pickup the Rice Krsipy Treat, Pringles Chips, and Pop-Tart brands.  (K surged almost 20% before closing up 16.23% on the news.) At the same time, QMCO announced it will buy Cogentrix Energy from CG for roughly $3 billion.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, the NHTSA said it is seeking information on a fatal TSLA Cybertruck crash in TX.  This could be part of the ongoing “Full Self Driving” investigation or an unrelated issue.  Later, GOOGL lost the federal antitrust case brought by the Dept. of Justice, 19 states, and the District of Columbia. The ruling found GOOGL had illegally acted to maintain its search engine monopoly by paying AAPL and others to make GOOGL the default search engine in browsers.  GOOGL will undoubtedly appeal.  After the close, MS announced it had received SEC requests for information about its cash balance sweep program where balances are sent to MS affiliate banks.  Separately, MS said it had reached a conditional settlement to resolve a 2017 lawsuit related to the IPO of OW Bunker, which MS had underwrote.

Also after the close, a proposed class action lawsuit was filed against CRWD on behalf of air travelers who had flights delayed or canceled following the recent global IT catastrophe stemming from a CRWD update release.  At the same time, NVS and VTRS were both hit with a lawsuit from the estate of a woman whose tissue samples (cells) were taken in the 1950s and continue to be used in research today.  (A similar lawsuit was filed by the estate against TMO and that case was settled out of court for an undisclosed sum.)  Meanwhile, GSK won the latest trial (in IL) over the claims that its discontinued heartburn drug Zantac caused cancer.  (This is but one of more than 70k cases that are pending on this issue, most of them located in DE.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side with some notable major rebounds.  Japan (+10.23%), Taiwan (+3.38%), South Korea (+3.30%), and Malaysia (+2.47%) were the notable major moves higher.  Meanwhile, Singapore (-1.39%) was the rebound laggard.  In Europe, only five of the 15 bourses are in the red at midday but the rebounds are not as strong as Asia either.  The CAC (-0.29%), DAX (+0.01%) and FSTE (+0.04%) lead the region, as always, on sheer volume.  However, Greece (+1.72%) is the largest gainer in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m.) Futures are pointing toward a gap higher, but nowhere near as big a move as Monday’s gap down.  The DIA implies a +0.67% open, the SPY is implying a +0.89% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.02% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are also rebounding strongly to 3.859% and Oil (WTI) is up a quarter of a percent to $73.11 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes the June Exports, the June Imports, and the June Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include FOX, GOLF, AHCO, ADNT, ALIT, ATI, GBTG, AU, ARMK, ATKR, AVNT, BAX, BLMN, BR, BRKR, BLDR, CAT, CLVT, CEG, DK, DUK, EPC, ENR, EXPD, FIS, FOXA, GFS, GPRE, GXO, HSIC, H, IDXX, INGR, J, JLL, KVUE. KNF, LCII, MPC, TAP, MPLX, VYX, NVT, OGN, OC, MD, SRE, SWX, STWD, SGRY, TPX, BLD, TDG, TRMB, UBER, UWMC, VVX, VMC, WLK, KLG, YUM, and ZTS.  The, after the close, AGL, ABNB, AFG, AMGN, ARKO, ASH, AIZ, CRC, CPNG, DVA, DVN, ENLC, PLUS, FTNT, GMED, GO, HY, IAC, ILMN, CART, IFF, LUMN, MASI, MOS, MRC, PR, RIVN, SVC, SKY, STE, SNEX, LRN, SU, RUN, SMCI, TOST, TSE, TRIP, VFC, and WYNN report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories and June Consumer Credit are reported.  On Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ADV, BCO, BAM, CRL, CCO, SID, CNDT, CRH, CVS, DBD, DDL, EMR, ENOV, GEO, GLP, GPN, GFF, HLT, HMC, IEP, KMT, LPX, LYFT, NEUE, NYT, NI, NOMD, NVO, DNOW, ODP, OGE, OSCR, PLTK, RCM, RL, REYN, ROK, RXO, SHOP, SONY, SUN, TGNA, PRKS, VSTS, VSH, DIS, ZBH, AE, ALTG, DOX, APP, ATO, BHF, CACI, CENT, CENTA, CF, CHRD, CPA, CPAY, CPAY, CAPL, CW, EFXT, ET, ENS, NVST, EQIX, FWRD, HG, HI, HUBS, ICUI, JXN, LNW, MTW, MFC, MRO, MATV, MMS, MCK, MKSI, MODV, MNST, NTR, OXY, PRI, HOOD, RGLD, SBGI, SM, STN, TALO, MODG, UGI, VSAT, WBD, WTS, WES, ZG, and Z report.  On Thursday, we hear from WMS, COLD, AVAH, AVT, AZUL, FUN, CQP, LNG, COMM, DDOG, ELAN, LLY, EDR, EPAM, FWONK, ULCC, GTN, HBI, HGV, IHRT, KELYA, KOP, LAMR, LSXMK, LSXMA, MLM, MUR, NXST, NRG, PZZA, PH, PENN, ACDC, RPRX, QSR, SBH, SEE, SN, SPB, TKO, UAA, UA, USFD, VTNR, VTRS, VST, WMG, ATSG, AKAM, AMN, BTG, CIB, CPRI, CENX, BAP, DBX, DXC, SSP, EVH, EXPE, G, GILD, IAG, NWSA, NGL, PAAS, PARAA, PARA, PBA, PBI, RXT, REZI, SOLV, TTWO, TTD, and TTEC.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, CLMT, ROAD, ERJ, EVRG, and NFE report.

So far this morning, AHCO, AU, ARMK, AVNT, BAX, BRKR, CELH, CEG, DK, DUK, GFS, KVUE, KNF, LCII, MPC, TAP, MPLX, TDG, UBER, WLK, and ZTS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BR, BLDR, CAT, CLVT, EPC, ENR, FIS, HSIC, H, INGR, J, NVT, OC, MD, STWD, TPX, and YUM missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, GXO and IDXX beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, GOLF, ADNT, ATKR, BLMN, GPRE, VYX, and BLD missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In Fed Rate Cut Expectation news, on Friday, the Fed Fund Futures market has now moved even further than Friday.  After the close Friday, 69.0% expected a half percent rate cut and 31.0% expected a quarter point cut at the September meeting.  However, after Monday’s market bloodbath, only 17.0% expect a quarter-point cut while 83.0% now expect a half-percent cut in September.  There are absolutely no bets that rates will remain the same or increase at the next meeting.  After the November meeting, 9.4% of trades anticipate a three-quarters of a percent cut (down to a 4.5-4.75% rate), while 53.6% now expect a full percentage cut by then and 37.0% expect to have had 1.25% in cuts following the November 7 meeting.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that mortgage financing firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are set to impose stricter rules on commercial; property lenders and brokers.  The new rules will require lenders to independently verify borrower’s financial information for borrowers of multi-family properties.  In addition, tougher cash on hand and income source requirements will apply.  Elsewhere, a Fed survey released Monday reported that US banks saw the best commercial and industrial loan demand in Q2 that had been seen in two years.  This came as the percentage of banks reporting tighter C&I loan standards fell to the lowest level in two years.  (In other words, banks were not tightening requirements and loan demand was up.)  Meanwhile, Reuters reported that unplanned outages at both SCHW and Fidelity made the morning gap worse as nearly 20k traders were unable to access their accounts until the trading day was already underway Monday.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are making a move toward a tepid rebound early. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket. (Not like Monday’s gap down, but still a decent gap up nonetheless.) However, from there we have seen indecision as SPY and QQQ have printed black-body candles with large wicks and DIA has printed a long-legged, white-body Spinning Top for the early session. The short-term trend remains clearly bearish as is the mid-term trend. However, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts are not yet bearish. (For example, look at a Monthly chart. There is no way to call SPY, DIA, or QQQ bearish based on those monthly charts.) In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are now well over-stretched to to downside from their T-line (8ema) and are in need of relief. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is at the bottom of its oversold range. So, the market is in need of a pause or relief bounce at the very minimum. (Just remember, the market can stay oversold longer than we can stay solvent predicting a reversal.) With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning with NVDA (+2.69%) leading the rebound both in terms of gain and dollar-volume traded. The bottom line is that markets are tentative and undecided…and therefore volatile…at the moment. The prudent approach is to either be very fast or very cautious in the trades you take. The Bears have momentum, but have used up a lot of their energy. It would not take too much to panic them in a short squeeze. However, it would also not take much selling to scare off those dip buyers trying to do the squeeze. Caution is the word of the day.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was another big day for the Bears as INTC’s terrible earnings after the bell on Thursday and worst than expected July Payroll data led to another large gap down.  SPY gapped down 1.37%, DIA gapped down 0.83%, and QQQ gapped down 1.98%.  From there, all three major index ETFs followed through to the downside.  QQQ made it to the lows of the day by 10:15 a.m. but SPY and DIA did not reach their lows until 11:30 a.m.  Once they reached the lows, all three put in a series of volatile waves that were modestly bullish side of sideways.  This action gave us large gap-down, black body, Spinning Top candles with in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  QQQ had evenly-split wicks (above/below) but SPY’s wicks lean mostly to the bottom and the DIA wicks were almost exclusively on the bottom of the candle.  (So much so that DIA was much like a very large Black Hammer candle.)  This all happened on heavier-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology and Energy (both -2.95%) and Consumer Cyclical (-2.94%) leading very broad-based large losses among the sectors.  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (+0.39%) was the only green sector that was 0.65% stronger than the next strongest group on the day.  At the same time, SPY dropped 1.83%, DIA fell 1.47%, and QQQ dropped 2.38%. VXX spiked a massive 23.88% to close at 62.57.  Meanwhile, T2122 plummeted down into the top end of its oversold territory at 18.20.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields plummeted down to close at 3.799% and Oil (WTI) dropped 3.01% to close at $74.01 per barrel.  So, Friday was a day when bad news was seen as bad news. The massive bad news out of INTC on Thursday night, coupled with weak July job growth data led traders to run for the exits.  However, by late morning the sellers were done for the week and dip-buyers did a little nibbling for the rest of the day.

For the week, SPY logged its third consecutive down candle losing 2.12%.  Meanwhile, DIA lost 2.18% on the week on its first down week since June.  At the same time, QQQ printed its fourth consecutive weekly loss by falling 3.07%. 

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included July Avg. Hourly Earnings (Year-on-Year), which showed a decline in rate of increase at +3.6% (compared to a +3.7% forecast and a +3.8% June reading).  On the Month-on-Month side, July Avg. Hourly Earnings also showed a slowing increase of +0.2% (versus the +0.3% forecast and June value).  At the same time, July Nonfarm Payrolls showed a much lower increase than predicted at +114k (compared to a +176k forecast and June’s +179k number).  On the private side, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls also showed a much smaller increase than expected at +97k (versus a +148k forecast and June’s +136k reading).  Meanwhile, the July Participation Rate increased to 62.7% (compared to a forecast and June value of 62.6%).  This all resulted in a July Unemployment Rate that jumped to 4.3% (versus the forecast and June reading of 4.1%).  Later, June Factory Orders fell significantly to -3.3% (compares to a -2.7% forecast and May’s -0.5%). 

In Fed speak news, Richmond Fed President Barkin told the NY Times Friday that the July Payrolls report showing a significant slowdown in job gains was “reasonable.”  However, he seemed to dismiss talk of recession and calls for more aggressive rate cuts.  Barkin said, “More significant reductions typically would be associated with an economy that feels like it’s deteriorating rapidly. And again, 114,000 jobs, while not as good as we’ve been running, on a long-term basis, is a reasonable number.”  Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the Fed should move in a “steady” fashion.  He said, “We never want to overreact to any one month’s numbers.”  Goolsbee continued, saying, “Our absolute goal now is we want to settle at something like full employment, not blow through normal and deteriorate.”

After the close, AMC missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, on Friday, the China Passenger Car Assn. reported that TSLA sales rose 15.3% year-over-year in July. (This sounds good, but their Chinese competitors saw sales growth of 30% and China’s overall EV sales grew 31% year-on-year for the month.)  Later, Reuters reported that DNB is exploring a potential sale, including a takeover by its largest shareholder CNNE.  DNB is reportedly looking for $9 billion to include debt assumption.  Meanwhile, CVX announced plans to move its headquarters from CA to TX, citing an “oil adversarial” government in CA. 

At the same time, AI startup Character.ai announced that it signed a non-exclusive deal with GOOGL for the its search engine to use the Character.ai large language model. Separately, two of the startup’s founders (both former GOOGL employees) will return to working for GOOGL.  On Saturday, CNBC reported that after unloading stocks recently (including half of its AAPL and more of its BAC), BRKB has raised a record $277 billion in cash.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the NHTSA upgraded and expanded its investigations into almost 1 million STLA Dodge SUVs over faulty door locks and window controls that caused fires including at least one death.  Later, the FDA reported that all dosages of LLY’s weight-loss and diabetes drugs are no longer in shortage and are available nationwide.  At the same time, Reuters reported that JPM is considering filing suit against the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau for its regulation of Zelle, a peer-to-peer payment network that the seven largest banks jointly own.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board again with some massive losses in chip-making countries in follow-through from INTC’s dismal performance last week and Japan raising rates for the first time 2008 (or more directly, the upward move of the Yen).  Japan (-12.40%), South Korea (-8.77%), and Taiwan (-8.35%) were by far the biggest loses, but a couple more exchanges were down well over 4% and none of the region’s exchanges lost less than 1.5%.  In Europe, we see a similar, but not as dismal, picture taking shape at midday.  The CAC (-1.91%), DAX (-2.53%), and FTSE (-2.33%) lead the region lower even while small exchanges like Athens (-5.78%) are out front in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to our markets following the rest of the world in general (unwarranted) panic.  The DIA implies a -2.04% open, the SPY is implying a -3.04% open, and the QQQ implies a -4.47% open in what is sure to be another tech bloodbath day at least to start.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are dropping again to 3.724% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.88% to $72.14 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday include July S&P Global Services PMI and July S&P Global Composite PMI (both at 9:45 a.m.), July ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and July ISM Non-Mfg. Prices Index (all at 10 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Daly (5 p.m.).  The major earnings reports before the open include AMR, BRKB, CG, KOS, SOHU, SAH, THS, and TSN.  Then, after the close, AAN, ACM, AHR, CAR, BRBR, BMRN, BCC, BWXT, CBT, CRGY, CSX, FANG, EHC, FG, FNF, HUN, ITUB, JELD, KMPR, OKE, PLTR, O, SPG, SPR, STRL, SUM, VSTO, WMB, and YUMC report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get June Exports, June Imports, June Trade Balance, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  Then Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories and June Consumer Credit are reported.  On Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from FOX, GOLF, AHCO, ADNT, ALIT, ATI, GBTG, AU, ARMK, ATKR, AVNT, BAX, BLMN, BR, BRKR, BLDR, CAT, CLVT, CEG, DK, DUK, EPC, ENR, EXPD, FIS, FOXA, GFS, GPRE, GXO, HSIC, H, IDXX, INGR, J, JLL, KVUE. KNF, LCII, MPC, TAP, MPLX, VYX, NVT, OGN, OC, MD, SRE, SWX, STWD, SGRY, TPX, BLD, TDG, TRMB, UBER, UWMC, VVX, VMC, WLK, KLG, YUM, ZTS, AGL, ABNB, AFG, AMGN, ARKO, ASH, AIZ, CRC, CPNG, DVA, DVN, ENLC, PLUS, FTNT, GMED, GO, HY, IAC, ILMN, CART, IFF, LUMN, MASI, MOS, MRC, PR, RIVN, SVC, SKY, STE, SNEX, LRN, SU, RUN, SMCI, TOST, TSE, TRIP, VFC, and WYNN.  Then Wednesday, ADV, BCO, BAM, CRL, CCO, SID, CNDT, CRH, CVS, DBD, DDL, EMR, ENOV, GEO, GLP, GPN, GFF, HLT, HMC, IEP, KMT, LPX, LYFT, NEUE, NYT, NI, NOMD, NVO, DNOW, ODP, OGE, OSCR, PLTK, RCM, RL, REYN, ROK, RXO, SHOP, SONY, SUN, TGNA, PRKS, VSTS, VSH, DIS, ZBH, AE, ALTG, DOX, APP, ATO, BHF, CACI, CENT, CENTA, CF, CHRD, CPA, CPAY, CPAY, CAPL, CW, EFXT, ET, ENS, NVST, EQIX, FWRD, HG, HI, HUBS, ICUI, JXN, LNW, MTW, MFC, MRO, MATV, MMS, MCK, MKSI, MODV, MNST, NTR, OXY, PRI, HOOD, RGLD, SBGI, SM, STN, TALO, MODG, UGI, VSAT, WBD, WTS, WES, ZG, and Z report.  On Thursday, we hear from WMS, COLD, AVAH, AVT, AZUL, FUN, CQP, LNG, COMM, DDOG, ELAN, LLY, EDR, EPAM, FWONK, ULCC, GTN, HBI, HGV, IHRT, KELYA, KOP, LAMR, LSXMK, LSXMA, MLM, MUR, NXST, NRG, PZZA, PH, PENN, ACDC, RPRX, QSR, SBH, SEE, SN, SPB, TKO, UAA, UA, USFD, VTNR, VTRS, VST, WMG, ATSG, AKAM, AMN, BTG, CIB, CPRI, CENX, BAP, DBX, DXC, SSP, EVH, EXPE, G, GILD, IAG, NWSA, NGL, PAAS, PARAA, PARA, PBA, PBI, RXT, REZI, SOLV, TTWO, TTD, and TTEC.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, CLMT, ROAD, ERJ, EVRG, and NFE report.

So far this morning, AMR, BRKB, THS, and TSN all reported beats on both revenue and earnings. Meanwhile, SAH missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, KOS missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In Fed Rate Cut Expectation news, on Friday, following the July Payrolls and June Factory Orders data, there was a market move in the probabilities of a Fed rate cut in September.  In addition, the Fed Fund Futures bets are now expecting a larger cut.  One week prior, 88.2% of Fed Funds Rate trades implied a quarter point cut in September, 11.5% were counting on a half percent cut, and a tiny fraction felt rates would remain where they are now.  After Friday, 69.0% now expect a half percent rate cut and 31.0% expect a quarter point cut at the September meeting.  For their part, major banks also changed their forecasts with BAC, BCS, C, GS, and JPM. All are now calling for a half percent cut in September, with C telling its clients they now expect half percent cuts in both September and November. Back to the Fedwatch tool look into the outlook of Fed Funds traders and looking out to the November meeting, the betting is evenly split between expecting a three-quarters percent reduction by that meeting and a full percent cut.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the national average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage plummeted 22 basis points to 6.4%.  That was the mortgage’s lowest level since April of 2023.  Elsewhere, CMCSA announced Friday that viewership for the 2024 Olympics is up and has blown past the 2021 Tokyo Games.  CMCSA’s NBC Sports announced the five-day average viewership was 34 million viewers, up a whopping 79% from 2021.  (However, it is worth noting that Tokyo had the lowest-rated summer Olympics viewership of modern games, in part due to pandemic issues.)

With that background, it looks as if the Bears have opened up the over-reaction elevator shaft so far in the premarket. If the market closed where it sits now, it would be the biggest 3-day loss since the lows of the Trump side of the pandemic. All three major index ETFs showed huge gaps down to start the premarket. After that gap, all three have followed through with black-bodied candles that are mostly (or all) body. We are firmly in correction territory here. The short-term trend is now clearly bearish as is the mid-term. However, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts are not yet bearish. In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are now well over-stretched to to downside from their T-line (8ema) and are in need of relief. At the same time, the T2122 indicator closed just into the oversold territory, but unless there is a big rebound it will end closer to the bottom of its range. So, the Bears have used up all their slack and the market is in need of a bounce or pause. However, remember the market can remain oversold or overbought longer than any of us can remain solvent predicting turns too early. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are hugely bearish with the market leader NVDA (-12.69%) absolutely getting destroyed and having traded $2.1 billion worth of stock so far this morning. Buckle up, it’s going to be a massive Bearish and perhaps volatile day. This is where we find out who the weak hands are and just how much guts the “dip buys” have.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bears got their revenge Thursday.  SPY gapped up 0.39%, DIA gapped up 0.34%, and QQQ opened 0.15% higher on good premarket data.  At that point, all three major index ETFs saw follow through to the upside, reaching the highs of the day after 30 minutes.  However, then some bad data hit and the Bears sprung their Bull Trap as all three sold off sharply until 3 p.m.  This was only broken by a profit-taking rally the last hour.  This action gave us large, black-bodied, Bearish Engulfing candles (with wicks on both ends), that crossed below the T-line (8ema) in all three major index ETF.  This happened on heavier-than-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-3.07%) out in front of Consumer Cyclicals (-2.45%) and the rest of the sectors.  Meanwhile, the safe haven Utilities (+1.09%) was far ahead of Consumer Defensive (+0.42%) holding up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY fell 1.42%, DIA fell 1.29%, and QQQ fell 2.42%.  VXX spiked 9.21% to close at 50.51.  Meanwhile, T2122 plummeted down below the center of the mid-range at 44.94.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields dropped below the key 4% level to close at 3.979% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.32% to close at $76.87 per barrel.  So, the Bears got their revenge on Thursday.  Pretty good data in the premarket quickly gave way to fear about Friday’s data.  However, bad data at 10 a.m. led to a strong selloff until 3 p.m. across the market as sentiment turned sharply.  Still, those pesky Bulls stepped in to buy the dip at 3 p.m. and close all three major index ETFs well up off their lows.  SPY climbed back up above the potential support level from the end of June, while DIA and QQQ managed to climb back on top of potential support from May highs.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were higher than expected at 249k (compared to a forecast of 236k and the prior week’s 235k).  On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were also higher than anticipated at 1,877k (versus a 1,860k forecast and the prior week’s 1,844k value).  At the same time, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity was up sharply and was significantly better than predicted at +2.3% (compared to a +1.7% forecast and the Q1 reading of +0.4%).  Mostly, this was probably due to a much lower than expected Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Cost of +0.9% (compared to an estimated +1.8% and far down from Q1’s +3.8%).  Later, July S&P Global Mfg. PMI was down, but not a tick better than predictions at 49.6 (versus a 49.5 forecast and a June reading of 51.6). A few minutes later, June Construction Spending was slightly improved but nowhere as strong as predicted at -0.3% (compared to a +0.2% forecast and the May -0.4% value).  At the same time, July ISM Mfg. Employment Index was down to 43.4 (versus the expected 49.0 and the June 49.3 reading).  On the PMI side, the July ISM Mfg. PMI was also a bit low at 46.8 (compared to a 48.4 forecast and a June 48.5 value).  To top that off, the July ISM Mfg. Prices Index was up to 52.9 (versus a 51.9 forecast and a June 52.1 value).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $27 billion reduction for the week, down to $7.178 trillion from the prior week’s $7.205 trillion. 

After the close, ALHC, AAPL, ACA, TEAM, BZH, BKNG, BFAM, ED, DORM, GEN, GDDY, ICFI, LEG, MELI, MTD, MCHP, MSI, NXT, ZEUS, PKIUF, RGA, RMD, RNG, RKT, ROKU, SPNT, TWLO, X, and VTR all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AES, AMZN, AEE, BIO, SQ, CLX, COIN, DKNG, EOG, FND, MATX, MTZ, POST, RYAN, SNAP, and SWN missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AL, CC, DASH, LNT, OPEN, PRU, SEM, and VRTX beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, BECN, CE, CIVI, CTRA, HUBG, INTC, OTEX, OEC, TPC, TROX, and WSC missed on both the top and bottom lines. 

In stock news, on Thursday, Chinese electric vehicle makers NIO, XPEV, and LI reported July delivery figures.  NIO reported a 43.9% increase compared to July 2023, XPEV reported a fifth consecutive month of growth in deliveries, and LI set a new monthly record (which was a 49.4% increase over July 2023).  This seemed to show an improvement in the lower-priced Chinese EV market.  Later, Reuters reported that BNPQY (BNP Paribas) is in exclusive talks to buy French insurer AXA’s Investment unit for $5.50 billion.  At the same time, OXY announced it has closed the $12 billion deal to acquire CrownRock.  In the announcement, OXY said Columbia’s Ecopetrol will not buy a stake in the shale oil producer (the two were in talks for such a stake in order to appease regulators as of July according to a regulatory filing). 

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that GM is changing the performance rating system for salaried workers.  The new plan will put pressure on lower-performers to improve or leave while rewarding the top 5% with 150% bonuses.  (GM has 53,000 salaried employees.)  Meanwhile, LLY told Reuters it expects the shortage of its blockbuster (and very profitable) weight-loss drug Mounjaro to end “very soon.”  LLY CEO Ricks said “I think actually today or tomorrow we plan to exit that (shortage) process.”  After the close, INTC announced it will cut 15% of its workforce (or about 15,000 employees) and eliminate its Q4 dividend as well as reducing capital expenditures.  This came after worse than expected results (a 1% decline in revenue and a swing to a $1,61 billion loss for Q2) and a lowering of forecast.  Also after the close, WBA announced it had sold another $1.1 billion of its stake in COR.  (WBA still as a 10% stake in COR.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, CNBC reported that Elliott Mgmt. had offered a settlement (of its shareholder lawsuit) to SBUX that would expand the board and allow CEO Narasimhan to keep his job.  At the same time, the Dept. of Transportation proposed a rule barring airlines from charging additional fees to seat families with young children together.  Later, AAPL asked a US District Judge to throw out the antitrust suit brought by the Dept. of Justice and 19 states (plus the District of Columbia) AGs.  Interestingly, the AAPL motion was not on legal grounds.  Instead, AAPL argued that if the case succeeds, the court would have to redesign its iPhones and the court does not have the expertise to do so. At the same time, WFC made a filing saying it is under investigation over money laundering and facilitating violation of US sanctions by the Justice Dept.  Separately, Reuters reported WFC is also in talks with the SEC in an attempt to resolve a “cash sweep options” violation investigation.  After the close, Politico reported that the US Dept. of Justice is investigating the NVDA acquisition of AI startup Run.ai over antitrust concerns.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board as Asia reacts to unprecedented (for at least decades) changes in Japanese monetary policy (including spending $37 billion in July to prop up the Yen and caused the Yen to rise a massive 8% against the Dollar since the July 4 holiday).  The other factor was INTC’s brutal earnings, which was read-through to Japanese, Taiwanese, and South Korean chipmakers.  As a result, Japan (-5.81%), Taiwan (-4.43%), and South Korea (-3.65%) led the region lower Friday.  In Europe, we see the same picture (with far less magnitude) taking shape at midday.  All 15 bourses are in the red as the DAX (-1.61%), CAC (-0.81%), and FTSE (-0.40%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., the Bears are looking to follow up Thursday’s drubbing with a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.84% open, the SPY is implying a -1.04% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.58% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.939% and Oil (WTI) is flat at $76.37 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, and the July Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 a.m.), and Jun Factory Orders (10 a.m.).  The major earnings reports before the open include ARCB, ARES, ABG, BSAC, BERY, BTSG, BEPC, BEP, CBOE, GTLS, CVX, CHD, CNK, ENB, ESAB, XOM, FLR, FYBR, IMO, LIN, LYB, MGA, NMRK, OMI, PRGO, PAA, PAGP, PPL, TIXT, and USM.  Then, after the close, AMC reports.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday the Bank of England cut rates a quarter percent from a 16-year high down to 5%.  Meanwhile, the EPA issued an emergency waiver lasting until August 20 for refineries located in MI, WI, IN, and IL.  The waiver suspends anti-smog rules that required refineries to make more difficult (and expensive) “summer blend” gasoline rather than the easier, cheaper, “winter blend.” This came after storm damage (power outages) shut down refineries in that region on July 15, which will not be able to restart until mid-August.  Elsewhere, Freddie Mac announced that the national average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to the lowest level since February at 6.73% this week.

In geopolitical news, Russia has sent units of their Wagner PMC to Venezuela to help strongman Maduro survive massive national protests, by helping crush demonstrators, following Maduro’s theft of the country’s election last Sunday.  Maduro himself has turned to his hand-picked Venezuelan Supreme Court for the moral authority to persuade the military to put down the protests against his election theft. Elsewhere, Hezbollah confirmed the death of its most senior military commander.  (Israel had claimed they had killed him Wednesday, but it took a day to confirm due to the amount of wreckage of five collapsed floors of the building Israeli missile struck in Beirut.)  In related news, Hamas political leader (and chief negotiator) Haniyeh was buried in Qatar. At the same time, Iran vowed revenge for the missile strike on its soil which killed him. Finally, the massive prisoner swap between Russia (and their corrupt puppet courts) and the West took place. The Biden Administration, Germany, Poland, and Slovenia had been working together to negotiate the historic deal for months. 24 detainees from seven countries were exchanged in Turkey, including 15 released by Russia, 1 released by Belarus (read Russia), and 8 convicts exchanged to Russia for those people.

So far this morning, ASIX, CHD, CRARY, ESAB, XOM, LYB, TIGO, and OMI all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BERY, FLR, LIN, PRGO, and TU missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ARCB, BTSG, BEP, ENB, and FYBR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ABG, GTLS, CVX, MGA, and TIXT missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks as if the Bears are in control this morning with all three major index ETFs gapping down to start the premarket. After that cap, all three have followed through with black-bodied candles that are mostly body. It is worth noting that all three also gapped down through their T-line (8ema). In short, the awful INTC report after yesterday’s close has global markets scared. Still, SPY (about 5% below) and DIA (about 3.5% below) remain not terribly far below their all-time highs. However, QQQ is now in correction territory, more than 11% below its own all-time high. So, on the big moves from Thursday and premarket, the short-term trend is now clearly bearish as is the mid-term. The longer-term remains bullish. In terms of extension, QQQ is getting stretched below its T-line (8ema) but the other two remain within a reasonable distance below. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the bottom half of its mid-range and likely headed lower on the now expected gap lower at the open. So, there is still room to run either direction, but the Bears have momentum off those INTC earnings and news. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red, led by INTC’s massive 22.38% selloff. AMD (+0.71%) is the only one in the green because INTC’s report showed that it was eating Intel’s lunch. However, NVDA (-4.07%) is reacting in sympathy to INTC and has traded more than 3.5 times as much dollar-volume than any other stock in premarket. The bottom line is beware of the Bear, watch for July Payrolls volatility, and prepare your account for the weekend.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Broader markets gapped higher to start the day Wednesday while DIA diverged.  SPY gapped up 1.31%, DIA opened just 0.03% higher, gapped up a whopping 2.37%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs rallied for an hour.  From that point QQQ and SPY traded sideways and drifted back to their opening level by 1:30 p.m.  Meanwhile, DIA continued its post-open rally until 1:30 p.m.  From there, all three rallied until 3 p.m. when they rode a rollercoaster down and back up and then back down during the last hour as profit-taking kicked in. This action gave us gap-up, white-bodied Spinning Top candles in all three of those ETFs.  SPY and DIA had most of their wicks on top while QQQ had more balanced wicks and larger body.  SPY and QQQ also rejoined DIA above their respective T-lines (8ema).  This all happened on average volume in SPY and QQQ as well as well above-average volume in the DIA.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+2.93%) way out in front of Basic Materials (+1.58%) and the rest of the sectors.  Meanwhile, it was Consumer Defensive (-0.09%) that was the only sector in the red (barely).  At the same time, SPY gained 1.63%, DIA gained 0.27%, and QQQ gained 2.96%.  VXX fell 2.36% to close at 46.25.  Meanwhile, T2122 gained a fraction, remaining at the very bottom of the overbought area at 80.54.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields plummeted to 4.031% and Oil (WTI) spiked 5.02% to close at $78.47 per barrel.  So, the Bears got handed the heads at the open and in the first-hour follow-through.  Then the pre and during FOMC rally kicked them again.  However, the profit-taking eased their pain a bit at the end of the day.  Again, it was AI that led the day after AMD’s (+4.36%) great earnings Tuesday night and then the Reuter’s report that could stoke sales for NVDA (+12.81%) as the US supposedly will allow allies to ship chip-making equipment to China.  In short, it was a turn-around day for SPY and QQQ while DIA continues its rally, coming within less than half a percent of its all-time high. (It is also worth noting that NVDA traded more than three times as much dollar volume than the next closest ticker in the market Wednesday.)

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included the July ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which showed a much smaller increase than expected at +122k (compared to a forecasted +147k and June’s +155k).  Later, the Q2 Employment Cost Index was better than anticipated at +0.9% (versus a +1.0% forecast and down significantly from the Q1 +1.2% number).  Then, the July Chicago PMI was down but still a bit better than predicted at 45.3 (compared to a 44.8 forecast and the June 47.4 reading).  Moments later, the June Pending Home Sales were much, much stronger than expected at +4.8% (versus a +1.4% forecast and May’s -1.9% value).  On the oil front, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a bigger drawdown that predicted at -3.436 million barrels (compared to a -1.600-million-barrel estimate and the prior week’s -3.741-million-barrel drawdown.  Later, as expected, the FOMC held rates steady.

In Fed speak news, at his FOMC Meeting press conference, Fed Chair Powell said that recent inflation data was giving the committee greater confidence that inflation is moving back toward the 2% target.  Powell said, “There has been some further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective.”  He continued by saying there was a growing POSSIBILITY of a rate cut in September, saying, “there is a growing sense of confidence that you could move at the next meeting” (as long as inflation data reaffirms the current softening trend).  When pressed for a rate cut commitment by reporters, Powell replied, “We have made no decisions on future meetings.”

After the close, ACHC, AFL, AEM, ALGT, ALL, ANSS, APA, ARM, AVB, CHRW, CVNA, COKE, CTSH, COMP, CTVA, CACC, EBAY, EXAS, FMC, GNW, GRBK, IR, JAZZ, KGC, LRCX, LUNMF, META, MGM, MAA, NE, CNXN, PPC, QGEN, QCOM, QDEL, RRX, RUSHA, RHP, TTEK, VICI, and WDC all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AGI, BALY, BBSI, BV, CAKE, CMPR, CODI, CRBG, DLX, ES, GLF, GT, THG, HLF, HST, IEX, KD, MKL, MET, MUSA, NFG, PGRE, PK, PTC, PTVE, SON, SSRM, and TDOC missed on revenue while beating earnings.  On the side, ALB, AWK, ETSY, EXPI, SCI, and TS beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, AIG, AR, CWH, EG, VAC, MYRG, SUI, TWI, and RIG missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Wednesday, JBLU announced it has agreed to buy “sustainable aviation fuel” from VLO for use on NY flights. Later, Bloomberg reported that DIA is planning to eliminate around 140 jobs from its television unit (about 2% of that staff). It also plans to cut 13% of the NatGeo staff (number unknown).  At the same time, Reuters reported that C has repeatedly breached a Fed rule (regulations W) that limits intercompany transactions, leading to errors in internal liquidity reporting.  (No formal investigation by the Fed has been announced yet.)  Later, ALB (the world’s largest lithium producer) announced another round of cost-cutting, citing tumbling lithium prices globally.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, INTC won the London case in which its private rival R2 had sought an injunction preventing the sale of INTC chips due to patent infringement.  (A similar case is pending in the US.)  At the same time, MO said it had sent data to the FDA on the growth of illegal “nicotine pouches” telling the agency this is the early stage of a massive black market for vape products in the US.  (MO and BTI say they have lost substantial US sales to illegal, unapproved nicotine products.)  Later, DAL put a number on its losses from the CRWD-caused IT outage that caused it to cancel thousands of flights.  DAL said it lost $500 million after announcing Tuesday it would take legal action against CRWD and MSFT over the disaster. Separately, CRWD shareholders filed suit against the company related to the outage, alleging the company defrauded them by concealing the inadequate state of its software quality system. 

Elsewhere, UBS filed suit against BAC for $200 million over allegations stemming from the 2008 global financial crisis. The suit alleges that BAC refused to cover the cost of risky mortgages issued prior to the crisis, which Countrywide had sold as bundles and had agreed to indemnify against being poorly written or fraudulent.  BAC later acquired Countrywide.  Later, Russia fined GOOGL $58k for failing to restore pro-Russia disinformation YouTube channels that GOOGL had banned.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced that HYMTF (Hyundai) will recall 49k vehicles over unintentional airbag deactivation or deployment.  Later, Reuters reported that a TSLA vehicle that hit and killed a Seattle motorcyclist was in “Full Self-Driving” mode.  The NHTSA acknowledged the incident and said it already had an investigation underway related to similar cases.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with half of the 12 exchanges in the red and half in the green.  Japan (-2.49%) and Singapore (-1.04%) paced the losses while Taiwan (+1.99%) and New Zealand (+0.67%) led the gainers.  In Europe, we see a similar mixed picture at midday with eight of the 15 bourses in the red while seven are showing green.  The CAC (-0.83%), DAX (-0.68%), and FTSE (+0.29%) lead the region on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward modest follow-through on Wednesday’s gains.  The DIA implies a flat +0.05% open, the SPY is implying a +0.44% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.53% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 4.063% and Oil (WTI) is up almost a percent to $78.63 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, and Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 a.m.), July S&P Global Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), June Construction Spending, July ISM Mfg. Employment, July ISM Mfg. PMI, and July ISM Mfg. Prices (all at 10 a.m.) and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports before the open include ADT, AER, APD, ALE, ATUS, AME, BUD, HOUS, APG, APO, APTV, MT, ARW, AXTA, BALL, BHC, BCE, BDX, BDC, BIIB, OWL, CNQ, CVE, CI, CIGI, COP, CROX, CMI, D, LPG, DRVN, DNB, ETN, ETR, NVRI, EXC, RACE, AG, FTDR, GIL, HSY, HTZ, DINO, HII, NSIT, NSP, IBP, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JHG, K, KIM, KEX, KTB, LH, LAUR, LTH, LNC, LAD, MIDD, NBIX, PATK, PBF, BTU, PNW, PWR, REGN, RBLX, SABR, SNDR, SHEL, SIRI, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TRI, TM, TAC, UPBD, VAL, GWW, W, WEN, WCC, XEL, and XPO. Then, after the close, AES, AL, ALHC, LNT, AMZN, AEE, AAPL, ACA, TEAM, BECN, BZH, BIO, SQ, BKNG, BFAM, CE, CGAU, CC, CIVI, CLX, COIN, ED, CTRA, DASH, DORM, DKNG, EOG, ERO, FND, GEN, GDDY, HUBG, ICFI, INTC, LEG, MTZ, MATX, MELI, MTD, MCHP, MSI, NXT, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, POST, PRU, RGA, RMD, RNG, RKT, ROKU, RYAN, SEM, SNAP, SWN, TROX, TPC, TWLO, X, VTR, VRTX, and WSC report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, July Unemployment Rate, and Jun Factory Orders are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, ARCB, ARES, ABG, BSAC, BERY, BTSG, BEPC, BEP, CBOE, GTLS, CVX, CHD, CNK, ENB, ESAB, XOM, FLR, FYBR, IMO, LIN, LYB, MGA, NMRK, OMI, PRGO, PAA, PAGP, PPL, TIXT, USM, and AMC report.

So far this morning, AER, ABEV, BUD, AXTA, BIIB, BIP. CNQ, CI, CROX, DLAKY, ETN, ETR, NVRI, EXC, GCI, GEL, GIL, GVA, DINO, HII, ING, IRM, KIM, KTB, LH, LAUR, LTH, LNC, LAD, REGN, SCGLY, STGW, SCMWY, TRP, TRI, TIPT, TM, TRN, and UPBD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, APD, ALE, AME, APTV, BALL, BDX, LPG, ITT, MIDD, SHEL, TFX, W, and XPO all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, APO, CVE, NBIX, PBF, PWR, and VNT beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ADT, ATUS, MT, BCE, COP, HSY, SAVE, WEN, WCC, and XEL missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, Reuters reported that US restrictions on the export of chipmaking equipment to China will exempt some US allies.  However, later, Bloomberg reported that the US is considering new restrictions on AI memory chip sales to China.  (MU is the main US supplier of such chips.)  Meanwhile, billionaire Bill Ackman canceled the IPO of his Pershing Square US Closed-end fund (scheduled for Tuesday) when it became clear he would not raise nearly as much money as he had hoped. 

In geopolitical news, Israel escalated and expanded its conflicts by killing the Hamas political leader (and main negotiator with Israel related to a cease fire and release of hostages) by missile strike in Iran.  This raises fears of a broader regional conflict.  It also helps PM Netanyahu keep the conflicts going, which ensures his continuing as PM.  Elsewhere, Ukraine received the first group of F-16 fighter-bombers.  These are not coming directly from the US (although LMT and GD will get significant parts and maintenance supply contracts from this transfer).  However, the US will also sell F-35s (made by LMT and sub-contractor NOC) to back-fill the jets sent to Ukraine.

With that background, it looks as if the market is indecisively looking to follow-through on Wednesday’s gains. All three major index ETFs are higher. SPY and QQQ both gapped higher, traded back down, then reversed and are near the highs of the premarket at the moment. This leaves them with a lot of wick and white-bodied Hammer type candles. Meanwhile, DIA gapped down, immediately reverses and has printed a white-bodied candle with no wick, sitting at early session highs. So, the Bulls are in control in the premarket, they just did it different ways between the narrower DIA and broader SPY and QQQ ETFs. All three major index ETFs are above their T-line (8ema) and pushing higher from the previous session. This means the short-term, mid-term, and longer-term, the trends are all bullish and within a few percent of their all-time highs. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too stretched from their T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is right at the bottom edge of its overbought area this morning. So, there is still room to run either direction, but it would seem like again the Bears have a little more slack with which to work. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the green so far in the premarket as META (+8.12%) is the leader followed by NVDA (+2.93%) which brings heavy volume in addition to its price move. TSLA (-0.55%) is by far the laggard of the 10. So, the wind seems behind those tech big dogs this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday brought a Bull trap at the open.  SPY gapped up 0.27%, DIA opened 0.07% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.44%.  However, as mentioned, this was a Bull Trap as all three major index ETFs sold off.  QQQ sold off most sharply, recrossing its opening gap by 10 a.m. and trading sharply lower until 1 p.m. Meanwhile, DIA diverged by following through until 10 a.m. and then sold off the slowest of the three, not really going negative, but reaching the lows at 1 p.m. At the same time, SPY was somewhere between QQQ and DIA, recrossing its opening gap by 10:30 a.m. and reaching the lows by 1 p.m.  From there, all three major index ETFs put in a modest rally in waves. This action gave us a black-bodied candle with modest upper wick and large lower wick in the SPY.  (SPY also retested and failed its T-line (8ema) during the day.  In the DIA, we saw a white-bodied Spinning Top type candle with the larger part of the wick at the top.  Finally, QQQ gave us a large black-bodied candle with a larger lower wick.  This happened on a bit below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, the 10 sectors were evenly split with Financial Services (+0.86%) and Energy (+0.84%) leading the gainers. Meanwhile, Technology (-1.43%) was the biggest mover and way out in front leading the losing sectors lower.  At the same time, SPY fell 0.51%, DIA gained 0.48%, and QQQ dropped 1.37%.  VXX jumped 3.18% to close at 47.37.  Meanwhile, T2122 climbed into the very bottom of the overbought area at 80.39.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields dropped to close at 4.14% and Oil (WTI) dropped another 0.71% to close at $75.28 per barrel.  So, we now find ourselves with SPY trying to hold on to the support of the June lows (and its 50sma) while QQQ being brutalized (both now in Dreaded h patterns).  However, DIA didn’t seem to get the message and remains in a short-term uptrend.  (QQQ is down more than 9% from its all-time, and recent, high while SPY is down just under 4% from its all-time high, and DIA is 1.5% from its own.)  Despite these divergences, the intraday volatility (whipsaw) remains rough in all three.

The major economic news scheduled Tuesday included July Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, which came in up and a touch stronger than expected at 100.3 (versus a forecast of 99.7 and the June reading or 97.8).  At the same time, the June JOLTs Job Openings were down, but still higher than predicted at 8.184 million (compared to a forecast of 8.020 million and the May value of 8.230 million).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a larger drawdown at 4.495 million barrels (versus the prior week’s -3.900-million-barrel drawdown).

After the close, AMD, ACGL, ANET, EQH, AXS, AX, BXP, CP, EA, EXR, FSLR, HLI, LFUS, MTCH, MSFT, MOD, NOG, PINS, QRVO, SWKS, SYK, UMBF, UNM, and WU all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, FE, LSTR, LYV, MCY, MDLZ, MEOH, NGD, OI, OVV, PSA, QUAD, SBUX, and TEX missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, CZR, HA, SW, TX, and WERN missed on both the top and bottom lines. (After-hours trading was disappointed in MSFT cloud services despite beats on both lines. However, traders liked AMD after-hours and their raise of guidance on AI and otherwise strong chip demand.)

In stock news, on Tuesday, the Wall Steet Journal reported on the results of its own investigation of TSLA’s “Autopilot” system. The article highlighted longstanding “issues” after analyzing 200 TSLA Autopilot crashes. Later, Reuters reported the BRKB has sold more than $3 billion worth of BAC shares this month.  (This report came after the latest tranche of 18.4 million shares between July 25 and July 29.)  At the same time, SAVE (a no-frills, low-cost airline) announced plans to move into the higher-margin business class market in Europe.  Later, SLTA announced it is offering a new round of voluntary buyouts to US salaried workers.  (The company made the same offer twice in 2023.) 

Elsewhere, CNP (which has been in the crosshairs due to slow recovery of electric services in Houston after Hurricane Beryl) said that it now expects up to $1.3 billion in “restoration costs” from the storm.  Later, Reuters reported exclusively that BLK is in talks to acquire ROIC.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported INTC is now planning to cut thousands of jobs as part of a cost-cutting program.  (The report said the cuts could be announced this week.)  After the close, MSFT said it now expects an outage in its Azure cloud service and Office365 to be resolved by the end of the night.  MSFT said the outage, which began early Tuesday, was caused by a surge in usage.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, META agreed to pay $1.4 billion to the state of TX to settle the state’s lawsuit accusing the company of illegally using its facial-recognition technology to collect user biometric data.  Separately, META agreed to pay $650 million to settle a class-action biometric data privacy lawsuit in IL.  Later, the NHTSA announced TSLA will recall 1.85 million 2021 to 2024 vehicles related to a software failure to detect an unlatched hood.  At the same time, the Consumer Product Safety Administration issued a directive stating that AMZN is responsible for the sale of any hazardous products by third-parties through their platform.  (AMZN said it would appeal the ruling.  Meanwhile, the FDA issued a similar directive to both AMZN and WMT related to products like chemical peels and other dangerous chemicals sold by third-parties through the company website. 

Elsewhere, AMP filed suit against LPLA alleging the latter systematically harvested and misused confidential client information in violation of multiple securities laws.  Later, the US Dept. of Justice filed a civil suit against NSC alleging the company is delaying passenger trains on the NYC to New Orleans route in violation of federal law.  At the same time, a VA Appeals Court overturned a $2 billion jury verdict against PEGA (payable to APPN) for trade secret theft.  The judge said the original court have committed a series of errors.  (APPN said it would appeal the loss.)  Later, a lawsuit was filed against WFC, alleging the company mismanaged the health insurance plan of tens of thousands of employees, causing them to overpay for prescription drugs.  (The suit claims examples where the plan caused 400% overcharges to employees on some drugs.)  After the close, Reuters reported that EADSY (Airbus) faces a criminal probe in the UK over potential violations of export control laws.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board.  Only Taiwan (-0.11%) was in the red while Shenzhen (+3.37%), Shanghai (+2.06%), and Hong Kong (+2.01%) led the region higher.  (This came as the Bank of Japan raised interest rates a quarter percent and there was a Reuters report that the US will exempt its allies from restrictions against selling chipmaking equipment to China…which is why China stocks soared.)  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.27%), DAX (+0.44%, lagging behind due to Tuesday’s report of contracting German GDP), and FTSE (+1.30%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a divergent green start to the day.  The DIA implies a flat +0.09% open, the SPY is implying a +0.94% gap higher, and the QQQ implies a 1.56% gap higher to open trading.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 4.133% and Oil (WTI) is spiking, up 3.31% to $77.19 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes July ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 a.m.), Q2 Employment Cost Index (8:30 a.m.), July Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.), June Pending Home Sales (10 a.m.), Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), Fed Interest Rate decision and the FOMC Statement (both at 2 p.m.), and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports before the open include MO, ADP, AN, BBVA, BLCO, BA, BWA, BG, CDW, COR, GIB, CHEF, CLH, CNH, DAN, XRAY, DD, ENTG, FTS, GRMN, GTES, GEHC, GNRC, GGB, GSK, HES, HUM, HCM, JCI, KKR, KHC, LECO, MAR, MA, EDU, NCLH, OMF, OPCH, OSK, PSN, PAG, PNM, RITM, SMG, SLGN, SITE, SCL, SHOO, TMUS, TEF, TEVA, TKR, TT, TTMI, ULS, UMC, UTHR, VRSK, WAT, and WEC.  Then, after the close, ACHC, AFL, AEM, AGI, ALB, ALGT, ALL, AIG, AWK, ANSS, AR, APA, ARM, AVB, BALY, BBSI, BV, CHRW, CWH, CVNA, CAKE, CMPR, CTSH, CODI,  COMP, CRBG, CTVA, DLX, EBAY, ETSY, EG, ES, EXAS, EXPI, FMC, GLF, GT, THG, HLF, HST, IEX, IR, JAZZ, KGC, KD, LRCX, MKL, VAC, META, MET, MGM, MAA, MUSA, MYRG, NFG, NE, PTVE, PGRE, PK, CNXN, PTC, QGEN, QCOM, QDEL, RRX, RUSHA, RHP, SCI, SON, SSRM, SUI, TDOC, TS, TTEK, TWI, RIG, VICI, and WDC report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Costs, July S&P Global Mfg. PMI, June Construction Spending, July ISM Mfg. Employment, July ISM Mfg. PMI, and July ISM Mfg. Prices.  Finally, on Friday, July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, July Unemployment Rate, and Jun Factory Orders are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from ADT, AER, APD, ALE, ATUS, AME, BUD, HOUS, APG, APO, APTV, MT, ARW, AXTA, BALL, BHC, BCE, BDX, BDC, BIIB, OWL, CNQ, CVE, CI, CIGI, COP, CROX, CMI, D, LPG, DRVN, DNB, ETN, ETR, NVRI, EXC, RACE, AG, FTDR, GIL, HSY, HTZ, DINO, HII, NSIT, NSP, IBP, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JHG, K, KIM, KEX, KTB, LH, LAUR, LTH, LNC, LAD, MIDD, NBIX, PATK, PBF, BTU, PNW, PWR, REGN, RBLX, SABR, SNDR, SHEL, SIRI, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TRI, TM, TAC, UPBD, VAL, GWW, W, WEN, WCC, XEL, XPO, AES, AL, ALHC, LNT, AMZN, AEE, AAPL, ACA, TEAM, BECN, BZH, BIO, SQ, BKNG, BFAM, CE, CGAU, CC, CIVI, CLX, COIN, ED, CTRA, DASH, DORM, DKNG, EOG, ERO, FND, GEN, GDDY, HUBG, ICFI, INTC, LEG, MTZ, MATX, MELI, MTD, MCHP, MSI, NXT, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, POST, PRU, RGA, RMD, RNG, RKT, ROKU, RYAN, SEM, SNAP, SWN, TROX, TPC, TWLO, X, VTR, VRTX, and WSC.  Finally, on Friday, ARCB, ARES, ABG, BSAC, BERY, BTSG, BEPC, BEP, CBOE, GTLS, CVX, CHD, CNK, ENB, ESAB, XOM, FLR, FYBR, IMO, LIN, LYB, MGA, NMRK, OMI, PRGO, PAA, PAGP, PPL, TIXT, USM, and AMC report.

So far this morning, ADP, BLCO, COR, CHEF, CNH, DAN, DD, ENTG, GRMN, GSK, HSBC, HUM, KKR, OMF, OPCH, OSK, PSN, RITM, SMG, SITE, SHOO, TMUS, TEF, TKR, TT, ULS, UMC, and WAT all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BBVA, BWA, GIB, FTS, GEHC, GNRC, JCI, MAR, PAG, PNM, SLGN, VRSK, and WEC reported missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, MO, CCJ, and UTHR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, AN, BG, CDW, XRAY, EDU, and SCL missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday evening Republican members of the Judiciary Committee demanded that more than 130 investors explain how they justify their environmental, social, and governance guidelines used to guide their investments.  The GOP said those investing guidelines may be found to violate antitrust laws, but in reality, Republicans are looking to stoke the issue in support of the fossil fuel industries (coal, oil, and gas).  Meanwhile, the US Trade Representative said Tuesday that new tariffs on an array of Chinese imports will be delayed for at least two weeks.  This comes as the USTR reviews 1,100 comments (appeals) related to specific products.  (The tariffs were scheduled to take effect on August 1.)  Elsewhere, Eurozone GDP rose 0.3% in Q2, sustain the same pace as it had in Q1.  France and Spain had better than expected results while Germany showed a 0.1% contraction in the quarter.

In geopolitical news, Israel escalated its conflict with Hezbollah (not Gaza) by striking Beirut, Lebanon with a missile in what it said was aimed at killing a senior leader of the group.  Israel said the strike was in response to the recent rocket attack that hit the occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 children. The Israeli IDF said the strike had killed a senior Hezbollah military commander, but some news outlets disputed that claim.  Regardless, five stories of the building struck were collapsed.  Casualties are not yet known.  (Fears are that Israeli PM Netanyahu is attempting to escalate their conflicts in an effort to retain his position as head of a War Cabinet.  Obviously, every escalation has an impact on global oil markets and shipping via the Suez Canal and Red Sea.)  Elsewhere, Venezuela’s election commission announced vote totals from Sunday’s Presidential election that showed 109% of citizens had voted.  This came as protests have escalated across that country where strongman Maduro clearly stole the election.  So far, some 750 arrests, (including leading opposition figures) and several deaths have been reported. However, in other places, police fled rather than attack protesters and crowds have even taken some military outposts.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are in control in the premarket. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the early session. However, DIA has sold back down toward Tuesday’s close. Meanwhile, SPY is following through with a large white-bodied candle while QQQ is printing an indecisive Doji after the gap to start the premarket. DIA remains above its T-line (8ema) while SPY is crossing above in the early session. QQQ remains below its T-line but is getting closer to a retest from below. The very short-term trend is now Bullish. Meanwhile, in the mid-term and longer-term, there is no way to look at markets except to say they remain bullish and still not all that far from their all-time highs. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too stretched from their T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is right at the edge of its overbought area this morning. So, there is still room to run either direction, but it would seem like again the Bears have a little more slack with which to work. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green so far in the premarket as AMD (+8.39%) is the leader on its strong report and guidance while MSFT (-3.36%) is by far the laggard as it is punished for a strong report but weaker than expected cloud sales. As usual, NVDA (+6.79%) is well out in front of the others in terms of dollar volume traded and is spiking in sympathy with direct competitor AMD’s good report.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped higher on Monday, following the rest of the globe higher early.  SPY gapped up 0.30%, DIA opened 0.23% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.62%.  From there all three major index ETFs rode a roller-coaster all day, recrossing the morning gap to reach the lows at 11:30 a.m., climbing back to the early highs about 12:30 p.m., and then selling off again, only to begin rebounding at about 2:30 p.m.  This action gave us indecisive candles in all three.  The SPY gave us a black-bodied Spinning Top type candle that did not quite retest its T-line (8ema) from below.  At the same time, DIA printed a black-bodied Hanging Man type candle that did not quite retest its T-line from above and QQQ printed a black-bodied Spinning Top candle.  This happened on well below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-0.87%) out front leading the market lower.  On the other side, Consumer Cyclical (+0.65%) held up significantly better than the other sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.06%, DIA fell 0.13%, and QQQ gained 0.20%.  VXX fell 1.47% to close at 46.09.  Meanwhile, T2122 dropped out of its overbought territory to close at the top of its mid-range at 78.40.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields dropped to close at 416.8% and Oil (WTI) dropped another 1.74% to close at $75.83 per barrel.  So, we saw a gap higher in all three major index ETFs, followed by a volatile day.  The whipsaw was worse in the QQQ and of a lower magnitude in the DIA with SPY in between the other two.

There was no major economic news scheduled for Monday and, obviously, FOMC members could not speak with their July meeting starting Tuesday. 

After the close, AMKR, CNO, CR, CVI, ESI, EQR, FFIV, FLS, HOLX, NEU, SFM, and VIV all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CWK, ST, SBAC, WELL, and WWD missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, SYM beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, CHK and SANM missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Monday, the CEO of L (James Tisch) announced he will step down on December 31, with his son Benjamin slated to take over as his successor.  At the same time, the Financial Times reported that Swiss pharma company Roche is now accelerating its development of a weight-loss drug after promising data from its early-stage trials.  Roche is reportedly now hoping to be available by 2028, two years earlier than previously planned.  (This would be a direct competitor to NVO’s Wegovy and LLY’s Zepbound weight-loss drugs.)  Later, OXY announced it will sell its Delaware Basis assets (located in TX and NM) to PR for about $818 million.  At the same time, AAPL reached its first labor agreement, striking a tentative deal with retail workers at its Towson, MD store.  (The union members still need to ratify the contract.)

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that EADSY (Airbus) is restructuring its Space Systems unit without waiting on the outcome of consolidation talks with Italy-based DRS and French THLLY (Thales).  At the same time, ESGR announced it had agreed to a $5.1 billion buyout (taking it private) which amounts to $338 per share.  Later, MCD reported its first decline in sales in 13 quarters.  At the same time, Reuters reported that SJM is now exploring the sale of its Voortman Bakery brand for more than $350 million.  After the close, RSNT announced it agreed to buy rival FBMS in an all-stock deal worth $1.2 billion.  (FBMS owners will receive 1 share of RNST for each share of FBMS held.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, Reuters reported that HPE will get unconditional EU antitrust approval for its $14 billion acquisition of JNPR.  (The deal was originally announced in January.)  The decision is scheduled to be announced on August 1.  Later, a US District Judge ruled that WFC must face a lawsuit alleging the company defrauded shareholders by proclaiming their commitment to hiring diversity at the same time it was conducting “sham job interviews” of women and non-white applicants (with no intention of hiring them).  Later, the FCC announced that CHTR will a pay a $15 million civil penalty to resolve an investigation into the company’s non-compliance with network and 911 outage rules.  After the close, DAL announced it had hired a law firm and will seek compensations from MSFT and CRWD related to the recent global outage.  (No details were provided, but DAL canceled many thousands of flights due to its inability to recover from the IT outage.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side. Hong Kong (-1.37%) paced the losses while New Zealand (+0.63%) led the gainers.  In Europe, we see the opposite picture taking shape with four red bourses and 11 in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.45%), DAX (+0.45%), and FTSE (-0.20%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the morning.  The DIA implies a flat +0.02% open, the SPY is implying a +0.17% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.20% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 4.168% and Oil (WTI) is off slightly to $75.73 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes the July Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and June JOLTs Job Openings (both at 10 a.m.) as well as API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports before the open include AGCO, AEP, AMT, ADM, ARCC, BGC, BP, CNP, GLW, EXP, ECL, EPD, IT, GPK, HWM, HUBB, ITW, INCY, IGT, JBLU, LDOS, DRS, LGIH, MHO, MRK, ONEW, PYPL, PFE, PSX, PHIN, PG, PEG, SPGI, SOFI, SWK, SYY, UFPI, WSO, XYL, and ZBRA.  Then, after the close, AMD, ACGL, ANET, EQH, AXS, BXP, CZR, CP, EA, EXR, FSLR, FE, HA, HLI, LSTR, LFUS, LYV, MTCH, MCY, MEOH, MSFT, MOD, MDLZ, NGD, NOG, OI, OVV, PINS, PSA, QRVO, QUAD, SWKS, SBUX, SYK, TEX, TX, UNM, WERN, and WU report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, July ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Q2 Employment Cost Index, July Chicago PMI, June Pending Home Sales, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Interest Rate decision, the FOMC Statement, and Fed Chair Press Conference are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Costs, July S&P Global Mfg. PMI, June Construction Spending, July ISM Mfg. Employment, July ISM Mfg. PMI, and July ISM Mfg. Prices.  Finally, on Friday, July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, July Unemployment Rate, and Jun Factory Orders are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, MO, ADP, AN, BBVA, BLCO, BA, BWA, BG, CDW, COR, GIB, CHEF, CLH, CNH, DAN, XRAY, DD, ENTG, FTS, GRMN, GTES, GEHC, GNRC, GGB, GSK, HES, HUM, HCM, JCI, KKR, KHC, LECO, MAR, MA, EDU, NCLH, OMF, OPCH, OSK, PSN, PAG, PNM, RITM, SMG, SLGN, SITE, SCL, SHOO, TMUS, TEF, TEVA, TKR, TT, TTMI, ULS, UMC, UTHR, VRSK, WAT, WEC, ACHC, AFL, AEM, AGI, ALB, ALGT, ALL, AIG, AWK, ANSS, AR, APA, ARM, AVB, BALY, BBSI, BV, CHRW, CWH, CVNA, CAKE, CMPR, CTSH, CODI,  COMP, CRBG, CTVA, DLX, EBAY, ETSY, EG, ES, EXAS, EXPI, FMC, GLF, GT, THG, HLF, HST, IEX, IR, JAZZ, KGC, KD, LRCX, MKL, VAC, META, MET, MGM, MAA, MUSA, MYRG, NFG, NE, PTVE, PGRE, PK, CNXN, PTC, QGEN, QCOM, QDEL, RRX, RUSHA, RHP, SCI, SON, SSRM, SUI, TDOC, TS, TTEK, TWI, RIG, VICI, and WDC report.  On Thursday, we hear from ADT, AER, APD, ALE, ATUS, AME, BUD, HOUS, APG, APO, APTV, MT, ARW, AXTA, BALL, BHC, BCE, BDX, BDC, BIIB, OWL, CNQ, CVE, CI, CIGI, COP, CROX, CMI, D, LPG, DRVN, DNB, ETN, ETR, NVRI, EXC, RACE, AG, FTDR, GIL, HSY, HTZ, DINO, HII, NSIT, NSP, IBP, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JHG, K, KIM, KEX, KTB, LH, LAUR, LTH, LNC, LAD, MIDD, NBIX, PATK, PBF, BTU, PNW, PWR, REGN, RBLX, SABR, SNDR, SHEL, SIRI, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TRI, TM, TAC, UPBD, VAL, GWW, W, WEN, WCC, XEL, XPO, AES, AL, ALHC, LNT, AMZN, AEE, AAPL, ACA, TEAM, BECN, BZH, BIO, SQ, BKNG, BFAM, CE, CGAU, CC, CIVI, CLX, COIN, ED, CTRA, DASH, DORM, DKNG, EOG, ERO, FND, GEN, GDDY, HUBG, ICFI, INTC, LEG, MTZ, MATX, MELI, MTD, MCHP, MSI, NXT, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, POST, PRU, RGA, RMD, RNG, RKT, ROKU, RYAN, SEM, SNAP, SWN, TROX, TPC, TWLO, X, VTR, VRTX, and WSC.  Finally, on Friday, ARCB, ARES, ABG, BSAC, BERY, BTSG, BEPC, BEP, CBOE, GTLS, CVX, CHD, CNK, ENB, ESAB, XOM, FLR, FYBR, IMO, LIN, LYB, MGA, NMRK, OMI, PRGO, PAA, PAGP, PPL, TIXT, USM, and AMC report.

So far this morning, AEP, AMT, ARCC, CNP, IT, HWM, JBLU, LDOS, LGIH, MRK, NMR, PYPL, PFE, PSX, SOFI, SWK, XYL, and ZBRA all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BP, EXP, GPK, IGT, and PG missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  However, ADM and EDP missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, in Congress, Democratic Senator Warner (VA) introduced a bill to reform the Fed Discount Window, requiring all but the smallest banks to be prepared (pre-qualified and registered) to borrow from the Fed in the event of a liquidity problem.  This is contrary to the current situation where banks have soften felt is was a stigma and comes as the FOMC has been working hard (top-down) to get banks set up to be able to access those emergency funds.  Meanwhile, in Britian, new Labor Finance Minister announced an immediate cut of more than $7.072 billion in 2024 spending. She told Parliament that the previous Conservative administration had left spending on track to go $28 billion over budget this year. In addition, she announced tentative plans for another $10.4 billion in cuts for 2025.  (The interesting thing about this is that it is a complete 180-degree from public stereotypes that liberals spend and conservatives are fiscally sound, which is often not true.)  The point is that cuts may slow a UK economic rebound as Labor tries to get the budget in order.  Elsewhere, China took another step toward hiding its market situation.  Beijing announced that beginning August 18^th, it will stop publishing daily inflow/outflow data for overseas funds. 

In miscellaneous geopolitical news, it appears Russians continue their attacks on France during the Olympic games.  In addition, to coordinated arson attacks that shut down the rail system the day of the opening ceremonies, on Monday many of the country’s fiber optic broadband services were cut. However, broadband service in Paris were not sabotaged, perhaps due to heightened security in that area. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported Monday that South Korea has identified who North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has chosen as his eventual successor.  Kim Jun-ae, Un’s preteen daughter (South Korea believes the daughter is 11 years old and his second of three children with his wife) has been tapped as the eventual heir apparent.  Meanwhile, in Venezuela, the Maduro regime appears to have stolen yet another election.  Exit polls had the opposition leader (third in line and the two leading opposition figures were barred from running) had captured more that 65% of votes.  However, Maduro’s hand-picked election commission declared that he had won by 51% to 44%.  At least hundreds of protesters took to the streets of Caracas to protest the “certified election” of Maduro.

With that background, it looks as if traders are waking up both modestly bullish and undecided this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped just a bit higher to start the premarket, but have traded indecisively since then. SPY and QQQ are printing white-bodied candles with wicks while DIA is printing a black-bodied candle (all three of which are small) in the early session. DIA remains above its T-line (8ema) while SPY and QQQ remain below their own T-lines. The very short-term trend is now Bullish. Meanwhile, in the mid-term and longer-term, there is no way to look at markets except to say they remain bullish and still not all that far from their all-time highs. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too stretched from their T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator has dropped to just outside overbought territory at the top-end of its mid-range. So, there is still room to run either direction, but it would seem the Bears have a little more slack with which to work. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green so far in the premarket as NFLX (+0.80%) is the leader (it is unusual that is the case) NVDA (-0.17%) is the laggard. TSLA (+0.41%) is well out in front of the others in terms of dollar volume traded followed by NVDA with a big drop off to the rest.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw the Bulls take back some ground after a bearish week.  The SPY gapped up 0.75%, DIA gapped up 0.59%, and QQQ gapped up 0.97%.  All three of the major index ETFs then followed through to the highs of the day at 1:30 p.m.  From there, all three sold off more modestly until 3 p.m. At that point, all three chopped sideways for the rest of the day.  This action gave us a gap-up, large white-bodied candle with an upper wick in the DIA.  In the SPY, we got a gap-up, white-bodied, Inside Day, Inverted Hammer type of candle. Meanwhile, QQQ printed a gap-up, white-bodied, Doji Harami. This happened on average volume in SPY and DIA as well as above-average volume in the QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Communications Services (+1.85%) out front leading the market higher.  On the other side, Energy (+0.57%) was the worst-performing sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 1.12%, DIA gained 1.62%, and QQQ gained 1.03%.  VXX plummeted 5.67% to close at 46.78.  Meanwhile, T2122 spiked up into the overbought territory at 90.27.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields dropped to close at 4193% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2.32% to close at $76.46 per barrel.  So, we saw a gap higher and some follow-through on the PCE news.  However, there was still indecision, especially in the QQQ while DIA was stronger than its two peer index ETFs.  This was the second straight down week in SPY (-0.83%).  At the same time, QQQ (-2.58%) had its third down week in a row.  Finally, DIA (+0.75%) had its fourth straight up week.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included the June Core PCE Price Index, which came in flat (Year-on-Year) at +2.6% (which was a tick higher than the +2.5% forecast but in line with May’s +2.6%).  On the Month-on-Month basis, the June Core PCE Price Index was up a tick at +0.2% (in line with the +0.2% forecast and up a tick from May’s +0.1%).  On the headline number, the June PCE Price Index (Year-on-Year) was down a touch to +2.5% (versus the +2.5% forecast and down a tick from May’s +2.6% reading).  For the Month-on-Month basis, the June PCE Price Index was up a tick to +0.1%, which was in line with the forecast but a tick higher than May’s 0.0% value.  At the same time, June Personal Spending was down a tick to +0.3% (versus a +0.3% forecast but a tick lower than May’s +0.4% reading).  Later, Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell but not as much as expected at 66.4 (compared to a 66.0 forecast but down from June’s 68.2 number).  In terms of outlook, Michigan Consumer Expectations were better than anticipated at 68.8 (versus a 67.2 forecast but down from June’s 69.6 reading).  The Michigan Consumer 1-Year Inflation Expectations were down to 2.9% (in line with a 2.9% forecast and down a tick from June’s 3.0% value).  Finally, the Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations were flat at 3.0% (compared to the 2.9% forecast but flat versus June’s 3.0%).   

In stock news, on Friday, Bloomberg reported that HON is considering a $10 billion IPO of its Quantinuum unit.  Later, MMM skyrocketed closing up 22.36% on the session.  That was the stock’s biggest one-day gain in more than 40 years as the new CEO used his first earnings call to lay out his plan for the future.  After the close, TM announced it has decided to put new engines into nearly 100k previously-recalled 2022-2023 Tundra pickup trucks and 3,500 previously-recalled Lexus SUVs.  (The June recall was for engines losing power while driving.) 

Meanwhile, INTC has serious problems. A design flaw in the last two generations of INTC desktop CPUs (13^th and 14^th generation) is causing a massive number of them to die (something between 50% and 100% after a couple of years of use).  This time to death can (and is) greatly accelerated when systems take advantage of configurations intended to improve the processor speed by increasing voltages. (As a side note, INTC has advertised they can be and worked with partners, i.e. motherboard manufacturers, to make it easier for users to accomplish.) For example, many users are reporting CPU failures after just a few months of use.  Then, over the weekend, it was reported that INTC’s next generation of CPU (still at least months, if not a year, from release) will have the same problem.  It is uncertain exactly how big a financial hit the company will take, but it will be significant.  In addition, INTC has been taking non-stop PR hits in the tech industry for three weeks now (when the nearly year-old story gained traction due to industry expert studies of the problem).  There is likely to be a revenue hit when next generation designs (and the ones that follow) must be reworked.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, India’s central bank fined V (just $288,000) for using an unauthorized payment transfer method after it had ordered V to stop.  At the same time, the SEC filed charges against short seller Left from Citron Capital for running a $20 million “fraud scheme” (reverse pump and dump).  Later, the FDA warned patients using NVO’s wildly popular weight-loss drug about over-dosing risks.  At the same time, INDV reached a $86 million opioid settlement with 16 states.   Later, Reuters reported that Italian sources confirmed that AMZN is now under a second investigation for tax evasion. 

Elsewhere, a US federal judge blocked a Dept. of Labor rule from taking effect.  The rule would have expanded the types of retirement advisors who must act with fiduciary responsibility (in the client’s interest).  Later, MSFT agreed to pay $6.625 million to settle a proposed class action lawsuit that alleged the company has overcharged its advertisers on its LinkedIn service.  At the same time, the Federal Railroad Administration told the Senate Commerce Committee that UNP interfered with a federal safety audit by coaching employees how to respond to questions.  This caused the agency to end the audit.  Meanwhile, Europe’s drug regulator rejected BIIB’s Alzheimer’s treatment Leqembi (which had already received approval in the US from the FDA).

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with only two of the twelve exchanges in the red.  Japan (+2.13%), Hong Kong (+1.28%), South Korea (+1.23%), and Thailand (1.21%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with 13 of the 15 bourses in the green at midday.  The CAC (-0.32%), DAX (+0.31%), and FTSE (+0.75%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.42% open, the SPY is implying a +0.45% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.71% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down briskly to 4.158% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.61% to $76.65 per barrel in early trading.

There are no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports before the open include AMG, ARLP, CTRI, CAN, MCD, ON, RVTY, and PHG.  Then, after the close, AMKR, CHK, CNO, CR, CWK, CVI, ESI, EQR, FFIV, FLS, HOLX, SANM, SBAC, ST, SFM, VIV, WELL, and WWD report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get July Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report.  Then Wednesday, July ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Q2 Employment Cost Index, July Chicago PMI, June Pending Home Sales, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Interest Rate decision, the FOMC Statement, and Fed Chair Press Conference are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Costs, July S&P Global Mfg. PMI, June Construction Spending, July ISM Mfg. Employment, July ISM Mfg. PMI, and July ISM Mfg. Prices.  Finally, on Friday, July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, July Unemployment Rate, and Jun Factory Orders are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from AGCO, AEP, AMT, ADM, ARCC, BGC, BP, CNP, GLW, EXP, ECL, EPD, IT, GPK, HWM, HUBB, ITW, INCY, IGT, JBLU, LDOS, DRS, LGIH, MHO, MRK, ONEW, PYPL, PFE, PSX, PHIN, PG, PEG, SPGI, SOFI, SWK, SYY, UFPI, WSO, XYL, ZBRA, AMD, ACGL, ANET, EQH, AXS, BXP, CZR, CP, EA, EXR, FSLR, FE, HA, HLI, LSTR, LFUS, LYV, MTCH, MCY, MEOH, MSFT, MOD, MDLZ, NGD, NOG, OI, OVV, PINS, PSA, QRVO, QUAD, SWKS, SBUX, SYK, TEX, TX, UNM, WERN, and WU.  Then Wednesday, MO, ADP, AN, BBVA, BLCO, BA, BWA, BG, CDW, COR, GIB, CHEF, CLH, CNH, DAN, XRAY, DD, ENTG, FTS, GRMN, GTES, GEHC, GNRC, GGB, GSK, HES, HUM, HCM, JCI, KKR, KHC, LECO, MAR, MA, EDU, NCLH, OMF, OPCH, OSK, PSN, PAG, PNM, RITM, SMG, SLGN, SITE, SCL, SHOO, TMUS, TEF, TEVA, TKR, TT, TTMI, ULS, UMC, UTHR, VRSK, WAT, WEC, ACHC, AFL, AEM, AGI, ALB, ALGT, ALL, AIG, AWK, ANSS, AR, APA, ARM, AVB, BALY, BBSI, BV, CHRW, CWH, CVNA, CAKE, CMPR, CTSH, CODI,  COMP, CRBG, CTVA, DLX, EBAY, ETSY, EG, ES, EXAS, EXPI, FMC, GLF, GT, THG, HLF, HST, IEX, IR, JAZZ, KGC, KD, LRCX, MKL, VAC, META, MET, MGM, MAA, MUSA, MYRG, NFG, NE, PTVE, PGRE, PK, CNXN, PTC, QGEN, QCOM, QDEL, RRX, RUSHA, RHP, SCI, SON, SSRM, SUI, TDOC, TS, TTEK, TWI, RIG, VICI, and WDC report.  On Thursday, we hear from ADT, AER, APD, ALE, ATUS, AME, BUD, HOUS, APG, APO, APTV, MT, ARW, AXTA, BALL, BHC, BCE, BDX, BDC, BIIB, OWL, CNQ, CVE, CI, CIGI, COP, CROX, CMI, D, LPG, DRVN, DNB, ETN, ETR, NVRI, EXC, RACE, AG, FTDR, GIL, HSY, HTZ, DINO, HII, NSIT, NSP, IBP, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JHG, K, KIM, KEX, KTB, LH, LAUR, LTH, LNC, LAD, MIDD, NBIX, PATK, PBF, BTU, PNW, PWR, REGN, RBLX, SABR, SNDR, SHEL, SIRI, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TRI, TM, TAC, UPBD, VAL, GWW, W, WEN, WCC, XEL, XPO, AES, AL, ALHC, LNT, AMZN, AEE, AAPL, ACA, TEAM, BECN, BZH, BIO, SQ, BKNG, BFAM, CE, CGAU, CC, CIVI, CLX, COIN, ED, CTRA, DASH, DORM, DKNG, EOG, ERO, FND, GEN, GDDY, HUBG, ICFI, INTC, LEG, MTZ, MATX, MELI, MTD, MCHP, MSI, NXT, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, POST, PRU, RGA, RMD, RNG, RKT, ROKU, RYAN, SEM, SNAP, SWN, TROX, TPC, TWLO, X, VTR, VRTX, and WSC.  Finally, on Friday, ARCB, ARES, ABG, BSAC, BERY, BTSG, BEPC, BEP, CBOE, GTLS, CVX, CHD, CNK, ENB, ESAB, XOM, FLR, FYBR, IMO, LIN, LYB, MGA, NMRK, OMI, PRGO, PAA, PAGP, PPL, TIXT, USM, and AMC report.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are in control in the premarket. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the early session and have put in white-bodied candles (very little wick) since that point. SPY looks as if it will try to retest it T-line (8ema) from below today and DIA is already challenging Friday’s high. The very short-term trend is now Bullish. However, QQQ and SPY remain below their T-line. Meanwhile, in the mid-term and longer-term, there is no way to look at markets except to say they remain very bullish and still not all that far from all-time highs. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too stretched from their T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now in its over-bought range, but not pegged to the top end. So, this means the market still has room to run in either direction if the market can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green in the early session with TSLA (+1.77%) well out in front of the others while AAPL (+0.01%) is the laggard and just barely green.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets were volatile Thursday, giving us great whiplash moves.  SPY opened flat at +0.02%, DIA opened down 0.03%, and QQQ opened 0.05% higher.  At that point, SPY and QQQ sold off sharply until 10:15 a.m. when they hit the lows of the day.  Then they both reversed and rallied hard back across the open to the highs of the day at 1:15 p.m.  However, then they both reversed again selling off hard again trying to reach the lows again, but coming up just a little short.  Meanwhile, DIA just rallied after its open, also reaching the highs of the day at 1:15 p.m.  Then it too sold off, but not quite as strongly as the other two major index ETFs.  This action gave us a black-bodied, large-bodied Spinning Top candle in QQQ, a black-bodied, large Inverted Hammer in the SPY, and a white-bodied Inverted Hammer in the DIA. 

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the green with Industrials (+1.09%) out front leading the gaining sectors higher.  On the other side, Technology (-0.76%) was again the worst-performing sector.  At the same time, SPY fell 0.52%, DIA gained 0.21%, and QQQ fell 1.10%.  VXX climber just a bit to 49.59.  Meanwhile, T2122 spiked back up into the upper half of its mid-range at 59.11.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to close at 4.246% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.68% to close at $78.12 per barrel.  This happened on above-average volume in the QQQ and average volume in the SPY and DIA.  So, Thursday saw a continuation of the sharp selloff in SPY and QQQ.  However, DIA held its ground after the rough week or so.  If there was any upside for Bulls, it would be that the QQQ closed on its long-term uptrend line dating back to October.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in just below predictions at 235k (compared to a forecast of 237k and the prior week’s 245k).  For the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were also better than expected at 1,851k (versus a forecast of 1,860k, which was also the prior week’s value).  At the same time, June Core Durable Goods Orders showed a jump of +0.5% (compared to a forecasted +0.2% and the far better than May’s -0.1%).  On the headline number, June Durable Goods Orders showed a large and unexpected decline of -6.6% (versus a forecast calling for +0.3% and May’s +0.1% reading).  I’ve got no idea how the core and headline numbers on that work together.  In terms of Preliminary Q2 PCE Prices, they were up 2.90% (compared to a +2.70% forecast but down from June version’s +3.70%).  At the same time, Preliminary Q2 GDP was much stronger than anticipated at +2.80% (versus a +2.0% forecast and a June value of +1.4%).  In terms of prices, the Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index was not as high as was expected at +2.3% (compared to the +2.6% forecast and well down from the June +3.1% reading).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a modest decline of $3 billion for the week, down to $7.205 trillion from the prior week’s $7.208 trillion value.

After the close, ALSN, AJG, ASB, BKR, BYD, CINF, COLB, FIX, DECK, EIX, ENIC, ENSG, ERIE, FIBK, HIG, LHX, LPLA, DOC, SKYW, SSNC, TXRH, UCTT, and VLTO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ATR, COLM, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EGO, FBIN, MTX, MHK, NSC, and TFII missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, TBBK, SAM, and PFG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, BTE, JNPR, OLN, SKX, WY, and WKC missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Thursday, WBD stock fell 5.67% after it failed to renew its NBA broadcast rights contract (on its TNT channel).  (WBD indicated it intended to sue after the league rejected its offer to match the bid from AMZN.)  At the same time, Reuters reported that iPhone sales in China during Q2 fell 6.7% while Chinese rival Huawei saw its China phone sale surge by 10%.  Later, AAL lowered its annual revenue forecast, citing a poor sales strategy.  At the same time, INST announced it had agreed to be acquired by KKR for $23.60 per share or $4.8 billion.  Later, VLO announced it plans to run its refineries at 92% of capacity in Q3.  This is down from the 94% VLO operated at during Q2 and well below its previously-announced plan to operate at more than 95% of capacity. 

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that TSLA CEO Musk intends to ask the board of TSLA to make a $5 billion investment into his xAI startup company.  Later, BAC announced its payments app had handled a record $500 billion in payments by mid-year.  At the same time, in Canada, WMT announced it will invest $53 million to increase the wages of 40,000 Canadian workers.  Later, Bloomberg reported that GM intends to begin charging for Cruise robotaxi rides in early 2025.  At the same time, LUV announced it will end its long-standing “open seating” policy as the airline seeks to improve earnings by instituting seating price tiers.  Later, OpenAI announced it is now testing a direct competitor to GOOGL and to a much lesser extent MSFT (which is a also ran in the market in question) search engines called SearchGPT.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, Reuters reported multiple sources tell it META will be hit with its first EU antitrust fines within a few weeks.  The fines are for META tying classified advertisements service Marketplace with its Facebook social network.  (The fine could be as much as $13.4 billion, which is 10% of its 2023 global revenue.)  At the same time, in the UK, COIN was fined $4.5 million for breaching the British financial crimes requirements.  Later, the US Dept. of justice announced that it and BA had finalized the company’s guilty plea.  BA will pay at least $243.6 million in fines for breaching its 2021 agreement that allowed it to avoid charges then.  At the same time, Russia reduced the speed of GOOGL’s YouTube service by 40% in order (with a threat to reduce it further to down 70%) next week) to pressure the company to reinstate blocked Russian YouTube channels. 

Elsewhere, the KR $25 billion acquisition of ACI has been halted until after a trial in CO that is scheduled to start in September.  At the same time, the CA Supreme Court rejected a union lawsuit, upholding the recent ballot measure that called for treating UBER and LYFT drivers as independent contractors instead of employees.  Later, BAYRY (Bayer) announced a settlement where it will pay $160 million to resolve Seattle’s PCB contamination lawsuit against the company’s Monsanto unit.  At the same time, a shareholder has filed suit to block the long and troubled merger (acquisition) of PARA by Skydance Media.  The suit alleges the deal would cost non-voting shareholders $1.65 billion.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green.  India (+1.76%), Shenzhen (+1.45%), and Thailand (+1.10%) led the seven gainers. Meanwhile, Taiwan (-3.29%) was an outlier as it resumed trading after being closed due to typhoon for two days.  That outlier was nearly 3% worse than any of the other four red exchanges. In Europe, markets lean heavily toward the green at midday with only two of the 15 bourses in the red.  The CAC (+0.90%), DAX (+0.31%), and FTSE (+0.68%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:00 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a strongly green open early (before PCE data).  The DIA implies a +0.60% open, the SPY is implying a +0.75% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.99% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 4.244% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.42% to $77.95 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday, June Core PCE Price Index, June PCE Price Index, and June Personal Spending (all at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.) are reported.  The major earnings reports before the open include MMM, AB, AON, AVTR, BAH, BMY, CNC, CHTR, CL, BEN, GNTX, NWL, POR, SAIA, and TROW.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for after the close.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, the Pentagon announced it had found another $2 billion accounting error that had caused the value of munitions sent to Ukraine to be overvalued.  (They had used replacement cost rather than depreciated value to place a price on the goods.)  This effectively increases the amount the US can send Ukraine by another $2 billion.  Elsewhere, attacks on French railways are causing travel chaos in Paris as the city preps for today’s opening ceremony of the Olympics.  About 250k passengers will be disrupted today and more than 800k disrupted over the weekend.  At the same time, a French-Swiss airport (Basel-Mulhouse) was evacuated and closed for safety reasons.  Finally, in overnight news, Reuters reported that HMC plans to close a factory in China as well as temporarily halting production at another plant.  The halt is part of a retooling to start producing more electric vehicles amidst heavy competition from Chinese EV rivals.

So far this morning, MMM, AFLYY, AB, BASFY, BMY, CHTR, CL, POR, TROW, and VLOWY all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AVTR and CRI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AON, BAH, and CNC beat on revenue while missing on earnings. 

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are looking to start Friday with a significant gap higher. All three major index ETFs began the premarket with a gap up and have followed through with white-bodied candles. Only QQQ has wicks on its early session candle, indicating less indecision among the DIA and SPY early. DIS is even retesting its T-line (8ema) from below having crossed above in the premarket. However, with all that said, we are still an hour away from the PCE Inflation data that could rock the boat (which just don’t know in what direction). So, after a rough four days in the market, it appears the Bulls have some momentum very early on a Friday. The short-term trend remains Bearish. Meanwhile, in the mid-term and longer-term, there is no way to look at markets except to say they remain very bullish and still not all that far from all-time highs. In terms of extension, even considering the premarket move higher, QQQ is stretched below its T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now in its mid-range. Therefore, overall, this means the market still has room to run in either direction if the market can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are solidly or strongly in the green in the early session with AMD (+2.39%) and NVDA (+2.31%) leading the group higher on strong moves and good volume. Meanwhile, GOOGL (+0.41%) is the laggard, having moved less than half as much as the next lowest performer MSFT (+0.87%).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw similar movement across all three major index ETFs, but with different magnitudes.  SPY opened down 0.02%, DIA opened up 0.04%, and QQQ opened down 0.17%.  From there, all three meandered back-and-forth around the “gaps” with SPY and DIA moving in a 0.50% range while QQQ moved in a 0.85% range.  This was only interrupted by a selloff the last 10 minutes across all three major index ETFs.  This action gave us black-bodied, inverted Hammer type candles in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  SPY and QQQ both retested their T-line (8ema) from below and failed the test during the day.  Meanwhile, DIA retested its own T-line from above and fell through by just four cents.  (So, it’s still a test in progress.)

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-1.26%) way out front leading the market lower.  On the other side, Financial Services (+0.31%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY fell 0.16%, DIA fell 0.16%, and QQQ fell 0.35%. VXX fell 0.82% to close at a very low at 10.83.  T2122 fell a bit, climbed just a bit further into its overbought range at 85.97.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields closed at 4.253% and Oil (WTI) continued to fall, down another 1.19% to close at $77.47 per barrel.  This all happened on far below-average volume in the SPY, DIA and QQQ.  So, Tuesday saw a pause after Monday’s gains.  continuation of the pullback from all-time highs with QQQ leading, SPY in the middle, and DIA following (just as it did on the way up). 

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included June Existing Home Sales, which came in light at 3.89 million (compared to a forecast of 3.99 million and the May reading of 4.11 million).  Then, after the close, API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks showed a much larger drawdown than expected at -3.900 million barrels (versus a forecasted build of 0.700 million barrels but less of a drawdown that the prior week’s -4.440 million barrels).

After the close, GOOGL, AGR, CALM, CB, EWBC, ENVA, GOOG, MTDR, PKG, RRR, STX, and TXN all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CSGP, EQT, MAT, RRC, and V missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  On the other side, NBR and TSLA beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, CNI, COF, and WFRD missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, KMB, KO, PM, SHW, HCA, GM, LMT, and even UPS (despite reporting its Q2 miss) raised their annual guidance.  Later, tech industry magazine Information reported that AAPL is working on a foldable iPhone with a planned release date in 2026.  At the same time, GM announced it has delayed plans for a self-driving version of the Chevrolet Bolt without a steering wheel.  (In 2022, GM have petitioned the NHTSA to allow deployment of 2,500 self-driving vehicles without human controls.)  Later, META released a new version of its Llama AI model, the biggest (largest training data set) model it has released to date.  At the same time, IEX announced it will buy private firm Mott Corp for $1 billion in cash.  (The move would improve IEX’s presence in the medical technologies industry.)  Later, cybersecurity startup Wiz ended talks with GOOGL related to the tech giant’s $23 billion deal to acquire the Israeli firm.  Meanwhile, German private firm Robert Bosch announced it had agreed to buy JCI’s residential ventilation business for $8 billion.  After the close, BA announced it has resumed deliveries of 737 MAX jets to China.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, AMZN unit Whole Foods reported it had reached a settlement in a lawsuit filed against it alleging the company fired an employee over refusing to remove a Black Lives Matter facemask.  Terms of the deal were not disclosed.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced that STLA has recalled 19,516 hybrid mini-vans in the US over fire potential from a battery pack, advising any customers to park the vehicles outside until they are repaired.  Later, Italy seized $131 million from the Italian unit of AMZN over alleged tax fraud and illegal labor practices.  At the same time, the US FTC has launched an investigation into individual pricing based on previous purchase history, consumer location data, and other personal data.  The FTC has asked MA, JPM, and six other companies to provide information on their “targeted pricing” practices.  The FTC is also seeking information from software providers and consultancies involved in implementing such systems. 

Elsewhere, the FAA launched a safety review of LUV after a series of near-misses involving their planes.  At the same time, the US Dept. of Transportation announced it has opened a probe into DAL related to the more than 5,000 flights the carrier has canceled due to the global cyber outage last Friday.  (DAL had canceled 30% of its flights Friday through Monday and 13% of its flights Tuesday, while other airlines recovered much more quickly.)  Among the complaints from stranded passengers was phone agent wait times of well over 12 hours for those trying to reroute. After the close, the state of CO announced it has ramped up its response to bird flu and now requires dairies to test their milk every week following outbreaks and many cases of bird to cow transmission in the state.  (CO found 47 cattle herds that have been infected so far, with 60% of those coming in the last month.  This comes after 3.1 million chickens were culled or died of the disease in that state.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red.  Only Taiwan (+2.76%), the region’s biggest mover and New Zealand (+0.85%) were in the green.  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-1.32%), Japan (-1.11%), and Hong Kong (-0.91%) led the rest of the region lower.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with only three of the 15 bourses in the green at midday.  The CAC (-1.00%), DAX (-0.71%), and FTSE (-0.19%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.45% open, the SPY is implying a -0.78% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.15% open after TSLA’s fourth consecutive quarterly miss.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are just on the green side of flat at 4.24% and Oil (WTI) is up nearly one percent to $77.71 per barrel in early trading. 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes, Building Permits, June Goods Trade Balance, and June Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 a.m.), S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, and June New Home Sales (all at 10 a.m.), and EIA Weekly Crude Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  Fed Governor Bowman also speaks at 4:05 p.m.  The major earnings reports before the open include Wednesday, we hear from, ALLE, APH, T, BSX, CHKP, CME, EQNR, EVR, FI, FLEX, FMX, FTV, GEV, GD, GPI, IP, IPG, KBR, LW, LII, NEE, ODFL, ORAN, OTIS, BPOP, PRG, RCI, ROP, TMHC, TEL, TECK, TDY, THC, TMO, TNL, VRT, and WAB.  Then after the close, ALGN, AMP, ASGN, CSL, CLS, CCS, CHE, CMG, CHDN, CYH, EW, FAF, F, GL, GGG, ICLR, IBM, INVH, KALU, KLAC, KNX, LVS, MTH, MOH, NEM, ORLY, OII, PTEN, PLXS, RJF, RNR, RSG, ROL, NOW, TER, TYL, URI, UHS, VMI, WCN, WFG, WHR, WM, and WH report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, June Core Durable Goods Orders, June Durable Goods Orders, Preliminary Q2 PCE Prices, Preliminary Q2 GDP, Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index, Preliminary Goods Trade Balance, Preliminary Retail Inventories, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, June Core PCE Price Index, June PCE Price Index, June Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, ABBV, AAL, ARCH, AMBP, AZN, BFH, BC, CRS, CARR, CBRE, CX, CMS, CFR, DAR, DOV, DOW, DTE, FCNCA, FCFS, FSV, FCN, GTX, HOG, HAS, HP, HNI, HON, KDP, LAZ, LEA, LKQ, MAS, NDAQ, NYCB, NOC, ORI, PCG, POOL, RS, RCL, RPM, RTX, R, SNY, LUV, STLA, STM, FTI, TSCO, TRU, TPH, UNP, VLO, VC, WST, WEX, WTW, XRX, ALSN, ATR, AJG, BKR, SAM, BYD, CINF, COLM, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EIX, EGO, FBIN, HIG, JNPR, LHX, LPLA, MTX, MHK, NSC, NOV, OLN, DOC, PFG, SKX, SKYW, SSNC, TXRH, TFII, VLTO, WY, and WKC report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from MMM, AB, AON, AVTR, BAH, BMY, CNC, CHTR, CL, BEN, GNTX, NWL, POR, SAIA, and TROW.

So far this morning, ALLE, BXMT, BSX, CHKP, CME, EVR, FI, IPG, NAVI, BPOP. SF, TMHC, THC, TMO, TNL, VRT, WNC, and WAB all reported beats on both the revenue and earning lines.  Meanwhile, EQNR, GEV, GPI, IP, KBR, LII, ODFL, OTIS, RCI, ROP, TEL, TECK, and TDY all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, GD beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, T missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, a US District Judge in Philadelphia rejected a lawsuit seeking to block the FTC rule which prohibits “non-compete agreements” as a condition of employment.  Elsewhere, the Equip. Leasing and Finance Assn. (ELFA) said Tuesday that companies borrow 4% less to finance equipment in June. (This came after double-digit growth in the borrowing the two prior months.)  Later, Bloomberg reported that an Pentagon technology services provider owned by LMT was recently hacked, resulting in internal documents being stolen.  (In addition to the Dept. of Defense, the Dept. of Homeland Security, NASA and numerous other agencies and foreign entities were among the customers of that LMT unit.)  Meanwhile, KHC suffered a little blow when its iconic “Wienermobile” hit another car and flipped on a Chicago highway Tuesday.  (Fortunately for hot dog fans, KHC has several Wienermobiles it can roll out to fill the void.)

With that background, it looks as if the Bears are in control early in the premarket. All three major index ETFs gapped down significantly to start the early session. However, they have printed small, indecisive candles since that gap lower. So, there is no unanimity of feeling among traders. All three major index ETFs are below their T-line (8ema), meaning the DIA lost its test from above as of the Tuesday close. So, the premarket looks solidly Bearish and the short-term is likewise pointing down. Meanwhile, in the mid-term and longer-term, there is no way to look at markets except to say they remain very bullish and still not far from all-time highs. In terms of extension, QQQ is getting a little stretched below its T-line by the morning gap down. At the same time, the T2122 indicator remains in the overbought area. Therefore, those mixed signals mean the market has room to run in either direction if the market can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are strongly red in the early session with TSLA (-8.37%) leading by a wide margin in terms of move and dollar-volume traded early. AAPL (-0.12%) and NFLX (-0.52%) are holding up better than the other big dogs.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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