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Bond Yields Up Again As Q1 Winds Down

March 30, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down modestly on Monday and followed-up with a selloff the first hour. However, this gave way to a late morning rally and an afternoon of more volatility. This left us with indecisive days in the SPY (Spinning Top) and QQQ (Doji) with the DIA being more positive. On the day, SPY closed down 0.05%, QQQ down 0.03%, and the DIA up 0.32% (closing at an all-time high close). The VXX rose over 2% to 12.01 and T2122 fell back into the mid-range at 68.12. Bond yields spiked again as the 10-year yield ended at 1.712% and Oil (WTI) rose over 1% to $61.64/barrel.

In miscellaneous business news, after the close, CNBC reported that TSLA has been double charging some customers for cars and are so far having trouble responding to refund demands. Earlier in the day the Suez Canal was cleared but experts expect it to take a week for the 400-ship backlog to be cleared in the waterway that 15% of global trade passes through. In the air sector, LUV placed an order for 100 of the troubled BA 737 Max plane. Finally, as the quarter winds down, Monday saw more huge dark-pool block trades by the big banks. Today it was WFC making a $2 billion block trade and MS another $500 million block trade. This follows up on $10.5 billion trades by GS, $13 billion by MS, and $20 billion by Achegos Capital (brought on by margin calls from banks on their over-levered positions) Friday that caused massive volatility in some tickers.

Overnight the 10-year bond yield spiked to a 14-month high of 1.77%. This may be a catalyst for inflation fear and the bears to step into markets today. Japan’s largest bank also warned of a $300 million loss tied to the fund at the bottom of the massive block trades the last few days. However, it appears the major US banks have dodged big losses on the situation so far.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,033,801 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 563,206. The number of new cases has jumped higher again to an average of 64,552 new cases per day. However, new deaths are mostly flat at 988 per day. President Biden urged states to reinstate mask mandates on Monday. This came after CDC Dir. Walensky went off script and warned of “impending doom” as she is scared the trends are going up again and way too many states are opening up too soon. The CDC also extended the eviction moratorium until June 30. On the bright side, the President said that more than 90% of adults in the US will be eligible for vaccination by April 19, with AR being the only state that has not set the timeline for expanding eligibility to all adults. The US has also administered more than 3 million vaccination per day over each of the four days.

Globally, the numbers rose to 128,341,355 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,806,709 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 557,315 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 9,707 new deaths per day. Brazil announced a troubling trend, with more young people contracting covid (a 500% increase in the 30-39 age group, +600% in the 40-49 group). JNJ announced it will ship Europe 200 million doses during April. However, Germany will now require a negative test to enter their country.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green, with a couple exceptions like Australia (-0.90%) and Indonesia (-1.55%). India (+2.33%) far outpaced the region with Shenzhen (+0.85%), Shanghai (+0.62%), and Taiwan (+0.48%) being more typical leaders. In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape so far today. Only Russia, Finland, and Denmark are negative and even then, basically flat. Meanwhile, the rest of the continent is modestly green. The FTSE (+0.19%), DAX (+0.63%), and CAC (+0.52%) are typical. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are red across the board, but also diverging. The DIA is implying a -0.11% open, the SPY implying a -0.33% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.79% open at this point.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am). Major earnings reports for the day are limited to ASO and MKC before the open. Then after the close, CHWY, LULU, and PVH report.

Bond yields are up significantly again overnight, which may well give the bears some strength as inflation fear and the underlying unease about massive block trades makes traders nervous. However, the bulls are not likely to give up easily with the DIA at all-time highs and the SPY less than half a percent for blue sky. So, be prepared for volatility today as the quarter continues to wind down.

We’ve said it many times, successful long-run trading means accepting that there are times when it’s best to sit on the sidelines. For me, times of a choppy market are at the top of that list. You have to decide for yourself if today is one of those days for you. Regardless, follow your trading rules, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No tickers today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Rates Up Overnight And Futures Mixed

March 26, 2021 by Ed Carter

The large-caps gapped down about four-tenths of a percent and the QQQ gapped down about six-tenths at the open. Then we saw another roller-coaster ride in the QQQ, while the large-caps made a jagged rally most of the day. This left us with a Bullish Engulfing candle in the DIA, and Piercing Candle in the SPY, and an indecisive Spinning Top in the QQQ. On the day, SPY gained 0.56%, DIA gained 0.65%, and QQQ lost 0.17%. The VXX fell 3% to 12.23 and T2122 climbed out of the oversold territory to 38.57. 10-year bond yields rose a bit to 1.631% and Oil (WTI) fell 4.5% to $58.44/barrel, this was odd because Brent fell sharply as the Suez Canal remains shut and 150 ships are already stacked up waiting to traverse (Europe gets most of its oil via tanker that passes through the canal, or takes at least a week longer to go around Africa).

Premarket, Fed Chair Powell told CNBC the obvious, that someday after substantial improvements, the Fed will start becoming less dovish. That plus a significant beat on the Jobless Claims and Q4 GDP fronts was enough to cause the gap-downs. Later, after-hours, the Fed also set the date (June 30) when big banks can begin buybacks and issue larger dividends. However, any bank that fails a stress test must wait until September 30 and would face higher capitalization requirements.

In other business news, the impacts of the global chip shortage continue to spread. Chinese electric car maker NIO is shutting its factory for a week due to the shortage. Congress also slammed the CEOs of FB, TWTR, and GOOG Thursday. This time the attacks were focused on failure to better stop “misinformation” related to election fraud, covid, and vaccines. The CEOs all rejected responsibility, putting the blame on former-President Trump and the general political divide of the country.

Related to the virus, US infections are plateauing at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,774,033 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 559,744. The number of new cases has ticked-up again to an average of 58,866 new cases per day. However, new deaths are mostly flat at 968 per day. CA, CT, and NC joined the growing list of states that are opening vaccine to all adults. President Biden has raised the goal to 200 million vaccinations within the first 100 days of his administration. This should be achievable as the country is averaging over 2.5 million vaccinations per day and the AZN vaccine is likely to be approved for emergency use soon.

Globally, the numbers rose to 126,193,313 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,769,455 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are not at 524,097 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 9,073 new deaths per day. After-hours the EU announced that AZN must meet its vaccine commitments to Europe before being allowed to export any more elsewhere. Likewise, India has banned vaccine exports for the time being. This came as 3 additional regions of France went back into lockdown. In South American, Chile went back into lockdown, Peru recorded its highest number of cases so far, and Brazil reported another record number of Covid deaths Thursday.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly green, with the lone exceptions of India. Shenzhen (+2.60%), Shanghai (+1.63%), and Japan (+1.56%) led the way. In Europe, markets are also green across the board at mid-day Friday. The FTSE (+0.72%), DAD (+0.75%), and CAC (+0.49%) are typical with a few smaller exchanges up over one percent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed and more muted open. The DIA is implying a +0.32% open, the SPY implying a +0.19% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.19% open at this point of the morning.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Feb. Goods Trade Balance and Feb. Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am), Feb. PCE Price Index and Feb. Personal Spending (both at 9:30 am), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am), and US Federal Budget (2 pm). There are no major earnings reports on the day Friday.

Bond yields are up significantly again overnight, now approaching 1.68% on the 10-year. With inflation being the primary focus of the markets lately, that may mean we’ll see another reversal today. In either case, if you were watching the candle signals in the major indices on Thursday, remember that candle signals require follow-through. So, don’t chase reversals without that confirmation. Keep exercising some caution and prudence.

We’ve said it many times. You don’t have to trade every day. Keep your FOMO under control and consider whether you really want to be in that group of traders who’ve had their accounts smacked in the chop of the last couple weeks. Successful long-run trading means accepting that there are times when it’s best to sit on the sidelines. And for me, times when we have a choppy market are at the top of that list. So, follow your trading rules. If you are trading, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. As always, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline. Also remember it’s Friday, so don’t forget to get your account ready for the weekend news cycle and to pay yourself.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: FDX, AN, IDT, OKE, HPE, GSM, SEEL, NUE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Jobless Claims, GDP and AZN Data Revision

March 25, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up about four-tenths of a percent Wednesday. At that point, the large-caps roller-coastered sideways until early afternoon. However, the QQQ started a jagged selloff that lasted over the same period. Then all three major indices synced-up and sold off the entire afternoon, closing on the lows. This left the DIA in a black Inverted Hammer candle and the other two major indices just as big, ugly black candles. That said, all 3 remain in the recent range and still not far from all-time highs. So, we’re still just in the chop. On the day, the SPY lost 0.51%, the DIA was flat at +0.01%, and QQQ lost 1.69%. The VXX gained a bit under 1% to 12.61 and T2122 fell again, now well into oversold territory at 10.57. 10-year bond yields fell again to 1.608% and Oil (WTI) came back over 5.4% to $60.90/barrel.

During the day the big “reopening” plays (such as travel-related stocks) took a hit when the CDC said that cruise restrictions will remain in place until at least November 1. The new surges in Europe, Asia and South America may also have dampened outlooks. Still, it was the big tech names that led the fall with mega-cap FAANG names taking a big hit. As was expected, not much real news came from the second day of testimony by Treasury Sec. Yellen and Fed Chair Powell. However, Yellen did say she supports the Fed decision to allow big banks to do stock buybacks and that the bigger banks look healthier now than when the Fed had previously blocked buybacks. This led to a clash between her and Senator Warren over BlackRock, which Warren wants to be classified “too big to fail” and regulated more tightly.

The SBA says it will triple Covid recovery loans (maximum $150,000) starting April 6. On the opposite side of the coin, after hours, AAL terminated its government loan after raising $10 billion by selling bonds. In related news, JBLU is calling back more flight attendants as travel is picking up again.

Related to the virus, US infections are plateauing at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,704,292 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 558,422 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases has ticked-up again to an average of 58,269 new cases per day. However, new deaths are mostly flat at 999 per day. A study of 1,100 discharged patients has found that 70% of people that were hospitalized for COVID-19 had not fully recovered even 5 months after release from the hospital. The CDC reported that it is encouraged by the pace of increase in vaccinations, but is worried about the pace of restriction-easing and poorly-behaving crowds such as large groups of Spring Breakers congregating to party as well as the up-tick in cases. AZN also revised its data reported to the CDC, lowering their efficacy claim to 76% from 79% after being challenged on the timeliness and accuracy of the data.

Globally, the numbers rose to 125,542,273 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,758,757 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are not at 513,085 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 9,046 new deaths per day. Germany made the surprise announcement to reverse course and open up the country over the Easter holiday weekend. Elsewhere in Europe, the EU has changed its laws to allow it to block export of vaccines (particularly PFE-BTNX and AZN). This comes as AZN is behind in shipments to the EU and the UK has not exported any vaccine to the EU.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again. Japan (+1.14%) was by far the largest gainer with India (-1.54%) seeing by far the largest loss. Most of the region saw small to moderate moves in either direction. In Europe, markets are also mixed, but lean heavily red on modest trading so far today. The FTSE (-0.22%), DAX (-0.21%), and CAC (-0.19%) are typical, with some smaller exchanges remaining green. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to an open just on the green side of flat. The DIA is implying a +0.06% open, the SPY implying a +0.08% open, and the QQQ implying +0.07% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Q4 GDP and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), and a number of Fed speakers (Williams at 5:30 am, Clarida at 10:10 am, Bostic at noon, and Daly at 7 pm). Major earnings reports before the open include ARKO, DOOO, CL, DRI, MOMO, and BTU. Then after the close YY and SAIC report.

With Powell and Yellen testimonies done, for now, all eyes will be watching the Q4 GDP and Weekly Jobless Claims for some direction on how the economy is doing. However, these volatile chopping markets are not likely to take a new trend from that backward-looking data or from the flurry of Fed speakers today. So, continue to watch out for the intraday and intraweek swings we’ve been suffering from recently. Keep exercising some caution and prudence.

As I’ve said before, remember that you don’t have to trade every day. A successful trading for the long run needs to accept that there are times it is best to sit on the sidelines…and for me, times of high chop are at the top of that list. So, if you are trading, follow the trend according to your trading horizon, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. As always, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: UBER, TMO, XLNX, KLAC, PYPL, NVDA, SMH, XLK, QQQ, SNPS, MPWR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

More Testimony and INTC Makes A Move

March 24, 2021 by Ed Carter

The chop continued as markets opened mildly higher on Tuesday and then proceeded to roller-coaster until 3pm. However, a late day selloff took all three major indices out near the lows. This left us with large black-body candles with upper wicks across the three. On the day, SPY lost 0.79%, DIA lost 0.97%, and QQQ lost 0.44%. The VXX rose over 5.5% to 13.15 and T2122 fell dramatically to 12.50. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.622% and Oil (WTI) fell dramatically (6.5%) to $57.38/barrel.

Treasury Sec. Yellen and Fed Chair Powell had their first of two days of joint testimony on Capitol Hill. They told the House Financial Services Committee that stocks were “elevated,” but that they were not concerned about financial market stability. Powell also stressed that whenever the Fed decides it’s time to dial back asset purchases or other monetary easing measures, they will go slowly and communicate the coming change well in advance of taking action. However, that time is not now and they still want to see more substantial moves toward their goal of full employment.

After the close, INTC said it will spend $20 billion to build two new Fabs in AZ to build chips to compete (selling to other companies) with TSM, which had previously announced it would spend $35 billion to Fab plants in AZ. In the same industry, a week ago SSNNF (Samsung) had also said it would spend $14 billion to build a Fab plant somewhere in the US by 2023. All of these companies are chasing the global shortage of chips. However, there is also the risk that as the industry ramps production to meet pandemic/upgrade-cycle demand, that demand may fall after upgrades are complete and if the economy shifts back away from at-home work. (As always, the risk of a just-in-time supply chain is the inability to adapt to take advantage of surge demand, but excess capacity is dead weight on any company’s books.)

Related to the virus, US infections are plateauing at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,636,534 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 556,883 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases has ticked-up again to an average of 57,661 new cases per day. However, new deaths continue to fall to 945 per day (first time below 1,000 since October). In some good news, the CDC reports the US is now administering 2.5 million shots per day of the vaccine. The White House also announced there will be 27 million doses shipped to the states this week (up from 22 million the week before). In other good news, GA, TX, OK, and other states joined the group that will allow all adults to receive the vaccine very soon. In other hopeful, but maybe not good news, more states are easing restrictions which expands the exposure risks.

Globally, the numbers rose to 124,919,952 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,748,590 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are not at 500,528 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 8,932 new deaths per day. Germany expanded its lockdown until mid-April as a surge in cases is underway. The WHO reports that cases are rising in many regions as a wave based mostly on variants is underway. Elsewhere, on Tuesday, Brazil reported its highest number of Covid deaths again (breaking above 3,000/day for the first time) and India also reported the most deaths it has seen in 2021. In other bad news, Hong Kong has suspended use of the PFE-BNTX vaccine due to an unspecified packaging defect.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned strongly red. Japan (-2.04%), Hong Kong (-2.03%), and Shenzhen (-1.47%) led the losses. However smaller exchanges such as Malaysia (+0.45%) and Thailand (+0.42%) managed to stay green. In Europe, markets are following Asia with the larger exchanges in the red and smaller exchanges staying in the green so far today. The FTSE (-0.15%) and CAC (-0.10%) are just on the down side of flat, but the DAX (-0.41%) is picking up steam to the downside at mid-day. As of 7:30am, US Futures are still pointing to a green open. The DIA is implying a +0.42% open while the SPY implies a +0.44% open and the QQ is leading the way implying a +0.82% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Feb. Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am), Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (9:45 am), Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Sec. Yellen testify (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and a couple of other Fed speakers (Williams at 1:45 pm and Daly at 3 pm). Major earnings reports before the open are limited to ESLT, GIS, TCEHY, WGO, and WOR. Then after the close CNCX, FUL, KBH, and RH report.

Powell and Yellen are unlikely to say anything in their statements that were not said to the House yesterday, However, the questions asked and answers given always poses the possibility of news. With inflation being the intense focus of markets recently, there may be more waiting on them to finish (usually early afternoon) in the market today. Either way, watch out for the intraday swings and volatility we’ve been seeing in recent weeks. Exercise some caution and prudence.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day. Warren Buffett’s first rule of making a lot of money is to not lose a lot of money. In other words, know when it’s best to sit on the sidelines…and for me, times of high chop are at the top of that list. So, follow the trend according to your trading horizon, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. As always, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas for Wednesday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Yield Tumble and AZN News May Help Bulls

March 22, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened blah on Friday and then ground sideways in a tight range all day, up until a late-day selloff. This left indecisive Doji and Spinning Top in the SPY and QQQ. On the day, DIA lost 1.02%, SPY lost 0.51%, and QQQ gained 0.35%. The VXX fell 4% to 12.77 and T2122 rose a bit, but remains in the mid-range at 60.53. After having risen during pre-market, 10-year bond rates were flat at 1.73% on the day, and Oil also gained strongly overnight, but was flat on the day at $61.42/barrel.

Over the weekend, CP agreed to buy KSU for $25 billion in the rail space. In Oil, Saudi Aramco announced earnings 44% down for 2020, but decided to maintain its $75 billion dividend and it remains the world’s most profitable company. Finally, after completing its $100 billion media deal, the NFL also working on a $100-$250 million data deal to provide play-by-play statistics to sports betting companies.

Early today, Richmond Fed President Barkin (voting member) told a conference in Europe “the US is on the brink of completing its recovery.” However, he fears economic scarring left by the year-long crisis will suppress growth prospects in the medium and longer-term. (The US economy contracted 3.5% in 2020, but is estimated to grow 6.5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022 according to both Fed and OECD, a non-US expert source.) Barkin’s main “scarring” concerns are parents who left the workforce (especially mothers), small businesses having closed, and working off the tremendous Federal Debt.

Related to the virus, US infections are plateauing at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,521,774 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 555,314 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases has plateaued at an average of 55,630 new cases per day. However, new deaths continue to fall to 1,048 per day. In bad news, Covid cases are rising again in 21 states. Meanwhile, in Miami Beach, Spring Breakers packed the streets (mostly unmasked) and rioted when police tried to break up crowds. However, in more hopeful news, AZN released a new US-based trial of their vaccine that showed 79% efficacy (but like the JNJ, PFE, and MRNA vaccines, 100% effective against severe symptoms and hospitalization).

Globally, the numbers rose to 123,935,536 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,729,028 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are not at 481,856 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 8,756 new deaths per day. Greece has drafted private doctors to help the strained medical system after a public plea resulted in few volunteering. With a major lack of vaccine in the EU, EU Commissioner Von der Leyen told AZN, “first fulfill your contract with Europe before you start delivering to other countries.” So, the argument with the UK is now hot again. Germany is seeking a lockdown extension as cases are rising again in the country’s third wave. In Asia, India reported a spike with the most new cases of any day since November.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned strongly red again. Japan (-2.07%) and India (-1.49%) led the losses while Shanghai (+1.14%) and Shenzhen (+1.14%) are among the few bright spots. However, in Europe, markets are mostly green on modest trading with only 2 showing any red so far this morning. The FTSE (+0.10%), DAX (+0.23%), and CAC (-0.23%) are typical of the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to another mixed and modest open. The DIA is just on the red side of flat at -0.04%, while the SPY (+0.20%) is implying a slightly higher open, and the QQQ (+0.80%) is implying a moderate gap higher.

The no major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to Feb. Home Sales (10 am). Major earnings reports before the open are limited to ZIM. Then after the close SNX and TME report.

Although today’s news is limited, Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Sec. Yellen jointly-testify before Congress on both Tuesday and Wednesday this week. So, there may be some waiting today for more direction from those two Monetary and Fiscal leaders. However, 10-year yields fell significantly overnight, which may fuel the bulls. In addition, gaps and volatility have been the hallmarks of the past few days, where intraday swings of more than 1.5% have been the norm. And we still sit just a couple percent from the all-time highs. So, exercise caution and prudence.

Follow the trend for your trading horizon, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. As always, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PFE, QS, DAC, BOOT, CSAH, FDX, MVIS, KOPN, STKL, MGNI. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Meeting With China Has A Rocky Start

March 19, 2021 by Ed Carter

The major indices were divergent most of the day Thursday. The QQQ gapped down 1.6%, while the SPY gapped down 0.7% and the DIA opened barely lower at -0.15%. This continued as the DIA rallied all morning, while the SPY and QQQ ground sideways. However, all 3 got back in-sync the last two hours with a strong sell-off. This left the DIS as a Bearish Harami and all 3 major indices as ugly black candles. On the day, DIA lost 0.43%, the SPY lost 1.43%, and QQQ lost a whopping 3.06%. The VXX gained 5.5% and T2122 fell back to the mid-range at 57.14. 10-year bond yields (which had spiked overnight Wednesday to 1.75%) fell back to 1.706% and Oil (WTI) got crushed, dropping almost 8% to $59.53/barrel on dollar strength and fear over inflation.

In business news, the NFL signed a $105 billion, 11-year media deal. This saw AMZN make its first step into live broadcasting as it purchased exclusive rights to Thursday NFL games starting in 2022. DG announced plans to expand by opening 1,000 new stores, remodeling 1,750 stores, and relocate 100 others all in the coming year as it pushes its more upscale chain “Popshelf.” PTON suffered a PR setback as CEO Foley addressed press after the company warned owners of their treadmills to keep children away after an accident resulted in a child’s death. A SPCE engineer plead guilty to insider trading (using the dark web) during Thursday evening. Finally, F announced it will have to cut shifts and only partially build pickups and SUVs due to the global chip shortage.

The first US-China meeting since President Biden took office got underway Thursday night. It started with a bang as each side accused the other of various things and both then declaring the other side was grandstanding. With that said, this is expected to be an important first meeting as the world’s two largest economies try to reset relations and lay groundwork to work together on many issues such as direct trade, climate change, and various geopolitical problems that can all effect trade. It can be argued the meeting is of more importance to the US, because we’ve ceded our place as the global leader in free trade to the Chinese in recent years. That is to say, the US has pulled out of many trade agreements, freely used tarriffs and embargos, and undermined the WTO, while China has concluded major regional trade deals with Asia, the middle-east, Africa, and many bilateral country-specific deals. This likely stems from the Chinese longer-term approach (versus the US short-term outlook) as part of their “belt and road” initiative pointed toward mid-century world economic dominance.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,358,880 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 552,470 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases rose slightly to an average of 55,787 new cases per day. Deaths rose very slightly also to 1,188 per day. President Biden said that the country would hit his initial goal of 100 million vaccinations today (58 days into his tenure). NJ rained indoor occupancy restrictions to 50% for gyms, restaurants, personal care businesses, etc. effective immediately. The US said it will also start relaxing covid travel restrictions in May.

Globally, the numbers rose to 122,481,607 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,705,298 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are not at 458,220 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 8,684 new deaths per day. Europe’s Medicines Agency categorically stated that the AZN vaccine was safe and effective on Thursday. As a result, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and others all announced plans to resume distributing the AZN vaccine. However, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden have decided to wait before restarting that rollout. Meanwhile, France announced a 4-week lockdown of Paris after spikes in UK-variant cases.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned strongly red. India (+1.28%) was the lone standout on the green side, but Shenzhen (-2.56%), Shanghai (-1.69%), and Japan (-1.41%) were much more typical of the region. In Europe, we see red across the board so far today, with the lone holdout being Portugal (+0.74%). The FTSE (-0.93%), DAX (-0.68%), and CAC (-0.70%) are all in the red. As of 7:45 am, US futures are flat to green. The DIA is implying a +0.03% open, the SPY implying a +0.16% open, and the QQQ implying a 0.46% open.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Friday. Major earnings reports before the open are limited to include ERJ. Then after the close there are no reports at all.

With no news planned, the market will have its eyes on inflation and to a lesser extent the US-China meetings. After the post-few whipsaw of the last couple of days, interest rates pulled back just a bit overnight to less than 1.7% on the 10-year note. However, this is tempered by the bickering coming out of the meetings in Alaska. Going into a weekend, with inflation fears and the two main economic superpowers arguing, I think the bulls want to pair losses, but caution may rule the day. Do not be surprised if traders take profits at least later in the day.

Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. Keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain discipline. As always, follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. Finally, remember it’s Friday, payday. So, take some money off the table to pay yourself.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Friday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Fed Hit Home Run But Market Rethinking

March 18, 2021 by Ed Carter

Stocks gapped down strongly as pre-market economic data led to major inflation fears. They then ground sideways until the FOMC and Chair Powell hit the perfect tone, by saying the economy is getting stronger (+6.5% for the year) and prices will rise in the short-term due to the stimulus, but the Fed sees no inflation and does not foresee any reason to raise rates or tighten policy through at least 2023. Markets exploded more than a full percent higher on that news and then took profits during the last hour. This gave us Bullish Engulfing signals in the QQQ and SPY as well as new all-time high closes in the two large-cap indices. On the day, SPY gained 0.34%, DIA gained 0.58%, and QQQ gained 0.41%. The VXX fell over 4% to 12.59 and T2122 jumped back to 90.91. 10-year bond yields spiked to 1.646% and Oil (WTI) fell almost half a percent to $64.53/barrel.

In government-related news, the IRS announced they are moving the 2020 Tax filing deadline back from April 15 to May 17. In addition, unspecified Wall St. execs, private equity CEOs, major corporations, and the Chamber of Commerce have held talks with President Biden on ways to pay for a major infrastructure improvement bill. Tax increases, usage fees, public-private partnerships were reportedly the leading ideas discussed according to sources cited by Bloomberg. Finally, the House has officially rolled out the pork barrel as GOP Representatives joined Democrats in allowing (for the first time since 2011) specific set-asides in all bills. While this opens the way to more bipartisan legislation, it also greatly increases the likelihood of pork (vote-buying across parties).

In other news, MS became the first major bank to allow clients access to Bitcoin. In addition, DIS formally announced that Disneyland would reopen on April 30. Finally, leaks suggest AAPL will announce new high-end iPads as soon as April, this is an unusual move since the company typically puts out new products in the fall. The timing may be a response to the reported decrease in iPhone sales. The good news for AAPL fans is that iPads use mobile processors that are much more available than computer silicon now.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the Fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,294,798 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 550,649 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases rose slightly to an average of 55,595 new cases per day. Deaths fell slightly also to 1,173 per day. Generally, the country is trending well, but an increasing number of states are seeing an increase in cases (UK variant and CA state variants) the health professionals have been warning about. The count is now 16 states with increasing cases.

Globally, the numbers rose to 121,938,903 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,694,903 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases have risen again to 448,126 per day. Mortality, which lags, was flat, now at 8,583 new deaths per day. Turkey saw its highest number of new cases in months and Brazil the highest number of new cases ever yesterday. The US is considering sending some AZN vaccine to Mexico (since it isn’t even approved yet for use in this country).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green. Hong Kong (+1.28%), Shenzhen (+1.12%), and Japan (+1.01%) led the way among major exchanges. India (-1.11%) and Australia (-0.73%) paced the losers. In Europe, we see a similar pattern so far today. The DAX (+1.07%) is an outlier to the upside, the CAC (+0.09%) is flat, and the FTSE (-0.23%) is typical of the exchanges showing losses mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing negative. The DIA (+0.06%) s flat, but the SPY (-0.47%) and QQQ (-1.23%) are pointing to gaps down in front of the Jobless Claims number.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports before the open include CAN, CSIQ, CMC, DG, GIII, WOOF, SIG, and WB before the open. Then after the close, LX, NKE, and OCDX report.

The Fed did the most any trader could ask on Wednesday. However, markets have had a night to reconsider the “we’re doing well and not taking our foot off the gas” statement. The specter of inflation still looms and bond yields are showing no sign of softening. So, don’t be surprised that we see a snap-back from yesterday afternoon’s rally. However, that too may be very short-lived. Expect volatility, but the bulls are still in control of the trend.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WF, BLDR, AG, BB, WPM, FANG, PFE, MARA, GM, RIOT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

All Eyes On The Fed and Chairman Powell

March 17, 2021 by Ed Carter

The large-caps opened slightly higher and the QQQ gapped up three-quarters of a percent on Tuesday. Then after a little morning follow-through, stocks sold off all afternoon. This gave us indecisive black candles (especially in the SPY and the QQQ gap-up Doji). However, the bullish trend remains unbroken. On the day, SPY lost 0.13%, DIA lost 0.37%, and QQQ gained 0.55%. The VXX was flat at 13.16 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) pulled back, but remains in the overbought territory at 83.33. 110-year bond yields rose again to 1.623% and Oil (WTI) fell over a percent to $64.68/barrel.

After the close, UBER granted their UK drivers worker status (having lost their legal battle up through the UK Supreme Court claiming they were contractors). This is widely expected to cause follow-on actions throughout Europe and perhaps at some point in the US. In other business news, Mortgage refinance demand fell 39% this week as rates continue to rise. For example, the benchmark 10-year bond yield rose to a 13-month high overnight of 1.65%.

The ongoing FOMC meeting is drawing much more attention than Fed meetings have for quite some time. This is backed up by a BAC survey of investors that found inflation is now the top market fear, replacing the virus for the first time in a year. Nobody is expecting a rate or even much of a statement wording change at this meeting. However, with interest rates rising and massive stimulus just starting to hit the economy, many analysts are saying Chair Powell really has to thread the needle in his afternoon press conference. He has to acknowledge that things look better, but that there really is too much uncertainty to change policy for a long time to come, even as we see a ripping stock market, rising bond rates, and are expecting huge GDP gains in Q1 and Q2.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,231,550 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 549,367 deaths. The number of new cases fell slightly again to an average of 55,395 new cases per day. Deaths fell slightly also to 1,228 per day. So, we are trending in a good direction overall. On the other hand, 15 states have reported at least a 10% increase in new cases this week versus last week. So, on average we are doing well, but some places are still in danger. Still, DE, OH, and MT all announced they are joining the states expanding vaccinations to everyone over the age of 16…which is also great news.

Globally, the numbers rose to 121,370,336 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,684,236 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases have risen again to 438,942 per day. Mortality, which lags, also rose, now at 8,631 new deaths per day. Following in the path of Germany, France’s PM told press that his country is also experiencing a third wave, mostly of the UK variant. In South American, Brazil reached another new high in daily deaths of 2,841.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but this time leaned negative. Shenzhen (+1.22%) stood out on the green side while South Korea (-0.64%), Taiwan (-0.60%), and Australia (-0.47%) were more typical. In Europe, stocks have started their day mostly lower. The FTSE (-0.29%), DAX (+0.09%), and CAC (-0.13%) are flat and seem to be trying to buck the trend, but most of the smaller exchanges are further into the red. As of 7:30 am, US futures are mixed but lean to the red. The DIA is implying a flat +0.01% open, the SPY implying a -0.24% open, and the QQQ looking to gap down, implying a -0.74% open at this point.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes Feb. Building Permits and Feb. Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), Fed Interest Rate Projections, Fed Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, and Fed Interest Rate Decision all at 2 pm as well as the Fed Press Conf. at 2:30 pm. Major earnings reports before the open include ARCO, CTAS, LE, and PDD. Then after the close, FIVE, WSM, and ZTO report.

All eyes will be on the Fed this afternoon. While no rate change decision is expected, Fed the interest rate forecast, statement, and especially Chair Powell’s press conference need to walk a tight rope for bulls to stay in control. Expect volatility, but also possibly some “wait and see” in front of the 2 pm announcements.

As always, follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. Also, keep in mind that you are not a fortune-teller. Don’t try to predict reversals, just follow the market. Most importantly, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and stick to your discipline. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WFC, BAC, PFE, RIG, AAPL, WRK, MRNA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

FOMC Meets and Biden Eyes Tax Changes

March 16, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened slightly higher Monday and then rode the roller-coaster all day long. A late-day rally into the close took all 3 major indices out near their highs on reopening optimism. This left the SPY and DIA at new all-time high closes. On the day, QQQ was up 1.07%, the SPY was up 0.61%, DIA was up 0.51%. The VXX was down sharply to 13.16 and T2122 fell slightly but remains deep in the overbought territory at 97.11. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.604% and Oil (WTI) was off one-third of a percent to $65.37/barrel.

The FOMC meeting starts again Tuesday. While no policy or statement changes are expected at this meeting, markets will be pouring over the new Fed Interest Rate Forecasts. Traders will also be hoping for better forward guidance on future changes to Fed policy when Chair Powell does the post-statement press conference. This comes amid the backdrop of rising interest rates and current expectations of a booming economy as vaccinations reach further into the population and the economy and public opens more and more every day.

In other economic news, Bloomberg reports that President Biden is working on a tax plan that will raise taxes on individuals making over $400,000 and corporations, but is not looking at the “wealth tax” as proposed by Senators Sanders and Warren. This had been hinted at on Sunday when Treasury Sec. Yellen said policies to address the deficit were on the horizon. This would be the first tax hike since 1993. In another plan being discussed are changes in capital gains rates on individuals making more than $1 million, taxes on stock dividends, and even replacing fuel taxes with a mileage-based fee for road use (which would make sure electric vehicle owners pair their share). The timeline that is being discussed seems to be focused on the fall and apparently, leaks report the taxes will not be made retroactive as other tax changes have been in the past.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,138,586 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 548,013 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases fell slightly again to an average of 55,423 new cases per day. Deaths were flat at 1,282 per day. In other good news, the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services reported that nursing home case numbers plunged more (83%) than the general public (58%) in the 6 weeks from Dec. 20 to Feb. 14. CT and MS also both announced their states will open vaccinations to all adults as of April 1. This makes 8 states that have announced this expansion about the same time. In addition, PA will ease restrictions on restaurants and businesses on April 4, bringing the total to 13 states that have eased restrictions.

Globally, the numbers rose to 120,846,995 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,674,086 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases have up-ticked again to 428,861 per day. Mortality, which lags, was flat, now at 8,482 new deaths per day. Monday saw major news on the vaccine front in Europe as German, France, Italy, and Spain joining 11 other European countries in suspending use of the AZN vaccine (over blood-clotting fears). The EU and WHO continue to say there is no real evidence to support those suspensions and urged countries to keep vaccinating. However, the damage is done to public confidence and the UK is claiming it is a nationalist attack based on Brexit since the AZN vaccine came from England.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned positive on generally modest moves. Shenzhen +0.91%) and Shanghai (+0.78%) led the gains today while Indonesia (-0.23%) and India (-0.11%) were typical of the losses. In Europe, markets are leaning strongly to the green side at this point in their day, but also on modest moves. The FTSE (+0.60%), DAX (+0.68%), and CAC (+0.24%) are typical of the rest of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.10% open, the SPY implying a +0.03% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.45% open at this point in the morning.

The major economic news for Tuesday includes Feb. Retail Sales, and Feb. Import and Export Indexes (all at 8:30 am), Feb. Industrial Production (9:15 am), and Jan. Business Inventories (10 am). Major earnings reports before the open include DBI and JBL. Then after the close, ADV, CAL, and LEN report.

With little economic news or earnings on tap, all eyes will remain on bond yields and the Fed meeting that starts today as traders look for reassurance on the inflation front. A bullish trend (at the all-time highs) remains in place, but the large-caps seem to be pushing against some resistance at this level, for the moment. Again, the general good mood about recovery and the $1,400 direct payments seem to be providing a tailwind for bulls. However, as mentioned, the market may wait on more direction from the Fed before making any big moves.

Be on the lookout for volatility whenever markets are looking indecisive. As always, follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. Also, keep in mind that you are not a mystic. So, don’t try to predict reversals, just follow the market. Most importantly, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and stick to your discipline. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: HPQ, DVN, NLSN, AVY, HON, NKLA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Eyes On Inflation Ahead of Fed

March 15, 2021 by Ed Carter

The SPY and QQQ gapped lower, while the DIA gapped up a bit on Friday. After that, all 3 major indices put in a mild lackadaisical rally the rest of the day. This left the QQQ with an indecisive candle (Spinning Top type) while both large-cap indices printed large-body white candles. The DIA ended at another all-time high close and so did the SPY (although to a much smaller extent and still within Thursday’s candle wick). On the day, SPY was up 0.13%, DIA up 0.92%, and QQQ down 0.81%. The VXX fell almost 2% to 13.95 and T2122 is almost pegged at 98.94, deep int the overbought territory. After the premarket jump, 10-year bond yields were stable during the session and ended up at 1.625% (spiked higher versus the Thursday close) and Oil (WTI) fell two-thirds of a percent to $65.60/barrel.

In good news, some Americans reported they had already received their $1,400 direct payment on Friday. This came just 24hr after the bill was signed into law. In other good news, the CDC reported the US has surpassed 101 million vaccinations, is now administering 2.2 million vaccinations per day, and hopes to hit 3 million per day by the end of the month. That blistering pace is sure to help the country get back to normal sooner and may have helped the bulls with their Friday rally, even against the tide of rising bond yields.

On Sunday, Treasury Sec. Yellen made the rounds telling various media that while the relief package stimulus will raise prices in the short-term, that the effect won’t last. She went on to say that true inflation risks remain “small and manageable.” Regardless of the accuracy of those words, this was exactly what markets had been hoping to hear. Still, 10-year bond yield remains above 1.6% in overnight trading, which is sure to temper market comfort with Yellen’s words. This is all prelude to the Fed meeting later in the week.

Related to the virus, US infections are slowly falling from the plateau level. The totals have risen to 30,081,657 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 547,234 deaths. However, the number of new cases fell again to an average of 54,373 cases per day. Deaths also fell again to 1,290 per day. Late Friday, MI announced they will open vaccinations to everyone over the age of 16 on April 5. Then Sunday, Dr. Fauci (NIH) said that guidelines will be much more liberal by July Fourth if US cases keep dropping.

Globally, the numbers rose to 120,486,601 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,666,564 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases have up-ticked again to 420,462 per day. Mortality, which lags, continued to tick down slightly, now at 8,443 new deaths per day. Italy went into lockdown again over the weekend in all the major population centers. They also pre-announced that the country will impose a 3-day lockdown for Easter weekend in a couple of weeks. Germany also declared that a third wave was now underway in that country. This came as more European countries have suspended the use of the AZN vaccine due to blood-clotting concerns.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed in mostly small moves. Shenzhen (-2.71%) and Shanghai (-0.96%) were outliers to the downside while India (+1.33%) was an outlier to the upside. However, more typical was Japan (+0.17%) and South Korea (-0.28%). In Europe, markets are mostly in the green at this point in their day. The FTSE (+0.34%), DAX (+0.17%), and CAC (+0.36%) are typical of the rest of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modestly green open after pulling back from overnight highs. The SIA is implying a +0.31% open, the SPY implying a +0.15% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.23% open at this point in the morning.

The only major economic news on Monday is NY Empire State Fed Mfg. Index (7:30 am). There are no major earnings reports before the open. However, after the close, QFIN, and BEKE report.

With no economic news or earnings on tap, all eyes will be on bond yields and the coming Fed meeting as traders look for reassurance on the inflation front. A bullish trend (at the all-time highs in the large-caps) seems to have the momentum for now. A general good mood as the $1,400 direct payments have started hitting accounts is likely to be a boon for retail names and possibly the market in general as CNBC reports a large percentage of the public intends to put the money to work in the market.

As always, follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. Also, keep in mind that you are not a mystic. So, don’t try to predict reversals, just follow the market. Most importantly, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and stick to your discipline. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: MVIS, BB, NOK, JWN, LUV, CPB, FCX, AG, LUMN, F, WMT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching