Extension and Earnings Give Bulls Energy

On Wednesday markets went on a wild all-day roller-coaster ride, only to end up not far from where it closed Tuesday.  This left us with indecisive, long-legged Doji candles in all 3 of the major indices.  On the day, SPY gained 0.26% (mostly on the pre-market gap), DIA gained 0.16%, and QQQ lost 0.12%.  The VXX rose more than 3% to 27.30 and T2122 rose, but only to 4.15 which is still deep in the oversold territory.  10-year bond yields rose to 2.836% and Oil (WTI) rose fractionally to $102.07/barrel.

After the close, QCOM, MOH, AMGN, AFL, AVT, CHRW, PPC, DFS, URI, HOLX, HTZ, EHC, MTH, MEOH, PLXS, MAT, ICLR, NLY, FIX, MYRG, ALSN, AVB, ESBMRN, PTC, TDOC, WSC, MAA, HP, TYL, and FWRD all reported beating estimates on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, FB, CYH, RE, EQIX, AXS, AR, CCS, AWK, AMED, INVH, and AUY missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, F, PYPL, TROX, SLM, CAKE, CMPR, PINS, and NBR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ORLY, ACGL, FTI, CACI, CP, LVS, EQT, ALGN, GGG, and UCTT all missed on both lines. 

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In economic read-throughs from earnings news, F saw a quarterly profit only dragged lower by its stake in RIVN.  PYPL also lowered its annual guidance, citing a pullback in consumer spending.  PPC also said that restaurant demand for chicken has returned to pre-pandemic levels.  Chinese shipping giant (container ships) Yang Ming Marine Transport said that supply chain issues may show signs of easing.  The company said the Los Angeles and Long Beach port delays have been reduced, with only a 40 ship backlog waiting to unload (10-14 days of wait time compared to weeks a few months ago).  The company also commented that new (Biden Administration) port procedures, such as requiring empty containers to be immediately moved and adding off-port storage facilities, should improve the flow even more in the second half of 2022.

FB shares are soaring this morning after missing on revenue and beating on earnings.  The proximate cause seems to be that the company reported that they have started growing its number of users again. Among other big pre-market gainers we see CTMX, ENDP, FNGU, LC, MXL, and NOW.  Among big pre-market losers we find ALGN, AMGN, BTU, CPZ, FLWS, FNGD, JKS, ORLY, SOXS, SQQQ, SWK, TDOC, TECS, UVXY, and VLON.

Overnight, the Asian markets were nearly green across the board.  Only Shenzhen (-0.23%) showed any red while Japan (+1.75%), Hong Kong (+1.65%), and Australia (+1.32%) led the way higher.  In Europe we see the same picture taking shape at mid-day.  Only Finland (-0.05%) shows any red.  Meanwhile, the FTSE (+1.04%), DAD (+1.44%), and CAC (+1.66%) are leading the continent higher in early afternoon trading.  AT 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a strong gap higher at the start of the day.  The DIA implies a +0.91% open, the SPY is implying a +1.61% open, and QQQ implies a +2.29% open on earnings-fueled strength.  10-year bond yields are back down a tad to 2.819% and Oil (WTI) is off fractionally to $101.55/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Q1 GDP and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include FLWS, AOS, AIMC, AEP, AIT, ARES, ABG, BAX, BFH, BC, CARR, CAT, CHD, CNX, CMCSA, DPZ, DTE, LLY, EME, FAF, FCNCA, FCFS, FTV, FCN, GTX, GOL, GFF, HSY, HUN, IP, IPG, IRM, JKS, KBR, KDP, KEX, LH, LAZ, LECO, LIN, LKQ, MDC, HZO, MA, MCD, MD, MRK, NLSN, NOK, ORI, OPCH, OSTK, PATK, PBF, BTU, PCG, PBI, POR, PHM, RLGY, RS, SNY, SNDR, SIRI, SAH, SO, LUV, SWK, SRCL, TROW, TFX, TPX, TXT, TMO, TNL, TWTR, VIRT, VC, GWW, WBS, WST, WEX, WTW, and XEL before the open.  Then after the close, AEM, LNT, ATUS, AMZN, AAPL, ATR, ACA, AJG, TEAM, AVTR, BZH, BIO, CSL, CE, CENX, CLW, COLM, DXCM, EMN, WIRE, ENSG, ERIE, FSLR, FBHS, ULCC, GILD, HIG, HUBG, INTC, KLAC, LPLA, MTX, MHK, COOP, NOV, OLN, OMF, PFG, RMD, ROKU, SKYW, SM, SWN, SSNC, SYK, TEX, TFII, X, WFG, WDC, and INT report.

So far this morning, CMCSA, MRK, CAT, SNY, TMO, LIN, LLY, NOK, MO, SO, IP, MCD, PBF, CARR, AEP, CTE, XEL, LKQ, SCMMY, BAX, KDP, RS, PHM, HSY, IPG, SIRI, LUV, FAF, HUN, BC, CHD, MDC, IRM, TPX, VIRT, AIT, AOS, VC, LAZ, TFX, HZO, KEX, FCNCA, AIMC, MD, WEX, and FCFS have all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, NOC, SWK, LH,, ABG, KBR, NLSN, and WST all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, FAF, TROW, JKS, GTX, ERJ, ARES, TNL, POR, CNX, and PTEN have reported beating the estimates on revenue but missed on the bottom line.  Finally, SAH, SRCL, OSTK, FLWS, and STRA all reported misses on both lines.

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Once again we saw a blizzard of earnings last night and this morning. For the most part, this was a good report card for stocks and markets reflect a renewed optimism before the open today. However, remember that the trend is still very clearly bearish, we were very over-extended to the downside as of yesterday’s close, and a ride on the whipsaw has been normal recently. So, beware of a potential pop-and-drop or at least the possiblity that a bull move could be nothing but a relief rally. Also keep in mind that there are still more earnings to come, including AAPL and AMZN after the close today. My point is that we need to be cautious. Don’t get caught chasing a gap only to be caught in a whipsaw you are not prepared to weather.

Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Staying hedged, nimble, and measured are good things…not bad. Also, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. Nobody is right all the time. So, if you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Trading is not a sprint, it’s a marathon. Just focus on your process and enjoy yourself. Stick with your trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: LUV, V, GSK, BTU, MCD, FB, SWK, RHI, IP, DAL, MMM. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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