Yesterday say saw some profit-taking come in immediately after the substantial gap up open. Still, the overall trend trajectory in the indexes remains bullish as we continue to test price resistance levels.  Today we face a big round of earnings reports, a GDP reading that consensus suggests will dive into negative territory and an FOMC decision.  Anything is possible, so cinch up your big boy pants and prepare for price volatility to continue to challenge your trading skills.

Asian markets closed the day flat, and European markets seem to be doing the same this morning, chopping around with modest gains and losses.  However, the US futures seemed filled with confidence this morning, pointing to another gap up ahead of a big day of data.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the hump day earings calendar, we have more than 300 companies reporting.  Notable reports include AFL, AMT, ANMT, ADM, AZN, BA, BSX, CCL, CCI, DIN, EBAY, EPD, FB, GRMN, GD, GE, HAS, HUM, LH, MA, MSFT, NSC, NOC, PBI, QCOM, RCL, SBH, SCI, NOW, SHW, SPOT, TDOC, TSLA, RIG, VLO, & YUM.

Top Stories

Today we will hear from the FOMC that’s not expected to hold on current interest rates.  However, they could provide more insight into the string of unprecedented actions.

The president invoked war powers to order meat packing companies to remain open as many warn that the supply chain is beginning to breakdown due to closures of many processing facilities.  Health officials warn with so many of the industries workers infected, and lack of protective equipment could have serious ramifications.

The hard-hit country of Italy suffered a credit rating downgrade to just one notch above junk status as debts soar due to the pandemic impacts.  Fitch warned that a second wave of infections could destabilize their economy due to debit risks with Italy.

Technically Speaking

The bulls stepped back slightly yesterday as if they were in a wait and see mode for the next FOMC decision.  The QQQ suffered the most profit-taking of the indexes that began immediately after the significant gap up open.  A good reminder not to chase opening gaps that challenge price resistance or price support levels!  Even with the modest profit-taking yesterday, the trend trajectory remains bullish, with investors holding on to hope that the economy can restart quickly.  However, a business that due resume operations will have to operate in a new normal that will require daily employee health checks, sanitization requirements, and lower capacity rules that provide for social distancing.  The concern is, will consumers return and what liabilities will they face if new infections occur as a result.

Today anything is possible with a big round of earnings reports, a GDP that’s likely to dive into negative territory and the FOMC decision. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

The bulls are in charge and don’t want to be bothered by falling oil prices, bankruptcies, massive unemployment, or negative earnings growth.  Today begins the 2-day FOMC, where its hoped we will get some clarity on how long rates will remain low and the extent of the asset purchase programs.  However, it is unlikely the committee will make a change to current interest rates.

Asian markets were little changed overnight as oil continues to slide south, and HSBC’s earnings drop.  European markets are trading in the green across the board with gains above 1.25% as they eye earnings results.  Ahead of a big day of earnings and economic data US Futures power higher with the Dow expected to gap up more than 250 points.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The Tuesday earnings calendar is a busy one with nearly 250 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include MMM, ABB, AMD, AB, GOOGL, BP, CAT, CNC, GLW, CMI, DENN, DHI, ECL, FEYE, F, HOG, MRK, MDLZ, NVS, NUE, PEP, PFE, ROP, SPGI, LUV, SBUX, TROW, TRU, UBS, UPS, & YUMC.

Top Stories

The administration unveiled a strategy to help states ramp up their capacity to test for coronavirus, hoping to raise public confidence as state’s begin to restart their economies.  Health officials continue to warn that restarting to soon could create another spike in infections.  Who’s right?  Only time will tell.

The FOMC begins its 2-day meeting today but is unlikely to change the benchmark interest rate.  However, they may provide more clarity about the duration of the low prices and the scale of asset purchases to stabilize the market.

Oil falls 20% on storage capacity fears and weak worldwide demand in the wake of the pandemic.  However, the slide in prices has done nothing to dissuade the bulls as the market continues to stretch into overbought territory.

Congress will soon return to the hill to work on yet another stimulus plan that may include a provision for guaranteed basic income.  The suggestion is anyone making less than 130K per year could receive a $2000 per month payment from the government for the duration of the pandemic crisis.  Of course, an actual plan is likely to be very different.

Technically Speaking

While the T2122 indicator suggests an overbought condition and oil prices dropped 20% yesterday, the bulls continued to power forward.  Although the 50-day moving average continues to decline, the DIA and SPY joined the QQQ by closing above this key psychological indicator.  A growing number of company bankruptcies, negative earnings projections, and historic unemployment levels appear to be of little concern these days as investors seem to have a ravenous appetite for risk.  I don’t understand it, but the good news is that I don’ have to as long as I focus on price action and stick to my trading plan.  Sooner or later, there will be another market pullback, but until that time, set aside your bias and trade the tend.

Ahead of a big day of earnings and several economic reports, the futures indicate another gap up open.  MMM is rising on strong demand for its pandemic safety devices this morning, which makes sense, but CAT reported a 21% decline in sales and is indicated higher.  Go figure?  Needless to say, the bulls are in control and look to make a powerful statement at the open.  Be careful not to chase and remember big gaps can bring in profit-takers, so it would be wise to stay focused on price action clues. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

A massive week of earnings and a jam-packed economic calendar that includes an FOMC meeting will give traders and investors an awful lot to digest this week.  This morning US futures are ignoring the 16% decline in West Texas crude pointing to a gap up open that looks to challenge the current consolidation resistance in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ.  With so much data coming our way expect substantial price volatility to challenge even the most experienced traders.

Asian markets rallied overnight as the Bank of Japan continues to ease monetary policy.  European markets hoping for further lock-down easing are bullish across the board this morning.  US Futures that opened in the red yesterday now suggest a gap up open of more than 200 down points.  This week the market may be a lot of things, but boring is not likely to be one of the descriptions.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a hectic earnings calendar this week, and we kick it off with more than 160 companies reporting results.  Notable reports today include BRO, CE, CINF, CLR, CRSP, FFIV, KDP, NXPI, OMF, PKG, and PPG.

Top Stories

Oil is once in again in decline this morning with West Texas crude futures down more than 16% at just over $14 a barrel.  However, US Futures are choosing to ignore the slide in oil prices this morning, pointing to a higher open.

Adidas reported a 19.5 decline in sales in the first quarter and projected a 40% decline for the second quarter.  Although their online sales have increased consumer habits, have changed as people are staying home due to the virus.

This week several states will try to reopen some business with imitations that continue to promote social distancing.  Many health officials suggest it’s too early, and with a shortage of testing, the possibility of higher infection rates may occur.  What they found in Europe that even as stores reopened, consumers continued to stay away, fearing contamination, suggesting recovery will be a complicated process.

Technically Speaking

The DIA, SPY, and QQQ have traded sideways in a broad consolidation range that covers about 1700 Dow points between support and resistance.  With futures choosing to ignore the 16% slide in West Texas crude, it looks as if we will test the resistance levels with a gap up open this morning.  The T2122 indicator at the open is likely to warn of an over-extended condition, so be careful rushing in with a fear of missing out.  With funding for small business restored last Friday with another stimulus bill loans will begin later today.  However, they are already saying the money will be gone quickly, and additional funding will be required.  Back to work, congress!

We have not only a jam-packed earnings calendar for the market to digest but also a busy week on the economic calendar that includes and FOMC meeting.  As US infections approach 1 million, the death toll tops 55,000, and unemployment numbers head toward great depression levels expect price action to remain very challenging with possible intra-day reversals and significant overnight gaps.  With the SPY opening, this morning 30% above the market lows I wonder how much longer the bulls can maintain the upward pressure.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

A big day of earnings and economic reports will give today’s market a lot to digest.  With more than 22 million Americans out of work, there is an expectation that more than 4 million more will join them today.  Add to that more than 200 companies reporting earnings and wildly fluctuating oil prices; we have the stage set for another day of challenging price volatility.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher overnight as South Korea reports a decline in fist quarter GDP.  European markets are hovering around the flat-line this morning, keeping earnings results in focus. US Futures are also relatively flat this morning ahead of a big day of data where anything is possible. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have our biggest day of earnings this week, with more than 200 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include AAN, ALK, BX, COF, CTXS, DPZ, EW, LLY, FCX, HSY, ITW, INTC, IVZ, IRM, LOGM, PHM, LUV, TSCO, UNP, UAL, VRSN, GWW & XRX.

Top Stories

Traders will be keeping in an eye on the jobless claims this morning with an expectation of over 4 million additional Americans join the jobless rolls. There is also worry there will be a massive layoff of state and local governments with federal aid channeled elsewhere. 

Georgia’s governor has decided to begin reopening the business starting today even though their infection numbers have yet to show a decline.  The President said he disagrees with the decision to open os quickly.

Oil made a nice rally yesterday after the President issued a warning to Iran that harassment of tankers in the straight will no longer be tolerated ordering the US Navy to destroy violators. 

Technically Speaking

Although we had a nice gap up yesterday as oil prices began to stabilize, price action in the indexes was choppy and displayed considerable uncertainty.  On the one hand, we saw the bulls actively defending the support of the current consolidation.  On the other, the bears were active enough to prevent prices from filling the entire gap down of the day before.  Today the market will have to digest another round of Jobless Claims that may top more than 4 million, a reading on PMI as well as New Home Sales, amidst the biggest day of earnings so far this season.  The DIA and SPY continue to struggle with the resistance of a declining 50-day average while the QQQ enjoys the benefit of using its 50-day as support. 

Yesterday across the country, there were nearly 28,000 new infections reported, and over 2200 fellow, Americans, lost there lives.  As of this morning, the US death toll tops 84,000.  A grim reminder that recovery is still a long way off, and businesses face a very challenging environment as the country tries to emerge from lock-down.  We should continue to see volatile price action in the days and weeks ahead as we try to navigate uncharted waters.  Stay focused on price action and plan your risk carefully as we approach the weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

As oil prices continue to plunge, the Senate passes the 4^th major spending bill lifting the spirits of the US Futures.  The US House plans to vote on the $484 package later this week with money for small businesses, hospitals, and testing.  With a big day of earnings, reports, prepare for the volatile price action to continue.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher as they monitor the slide in oil prices.  European markets are currently trading in the green across the board this morning.  After a historic drop in crude, the US Futures point to a bullish open holding onto critical price supports and current trends.  However, with nearly 150 companies reporting, traders will have to remain flexible and focused on price as anything is possible.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Hump day earnings calendar, we have nearly 140 companies fessing up to quarterly results.  Notable reports include DAL, AA, T, BKR, BIIB, SAM, CSX, DFX, KMB, KMI, LRCX, LVS, DEE, ORLY, DGX, STX, SAVE,& XLNX.

Top Stories

After the bell yesterday, the Senate Passed a 484 billion relief plan that includes aid for small businesses and hospitals as well as money to expand virus testing.  The bill now heads to the House that hopes to pass the legislation by the end of the week.

Netflix saw a considerable subscriber increase when it reported earnings after the bell yesterday.  The initial reaction sent the streaming service sharply higher, but after the conference call, prices settled lower, and now the stock looks to open slightly lower than yesterday’s close. 

Home sales dropped 8% last month, and there is a worry it could get worse as many people have chosen to delist their homes as virus impacts change consumer habits.

The meltdown in oil continues as Brent falls an additional 5% with crude futures dip below $11.00 per barrel.

Technically Speaking

The last couple of days of price action has the VIX back on the rise closing back above a 45 handle, as oil continues to plunge.  Today we get a reading on oil supplies, which may continue to add selling pressure as supplies outpace demand.  However, more help is on the way as the Senate passed the 4^th major spending bill to help small businesses, hospitals, including massive funds for testing.  Later today, the President plans to sign an executive order temporarily halting all immigration to slow the spread of the virus.  Legal challenges to the rule are likely. 

Although the recent pullback has raised the level of fear in the market overall, there has not been much technical damage to the index charts.  The QQQ experienced the most substantial selling on the day, but that’s not a big surprise because it was the most overextended index.  This morning even as crude oil continues to slide south, the US Futures point to a substantial gap up choosing to focus on the new 484 billion dollar relief bill that the House hopes to approve by weeks end.  We have a big round of earnings today, so expect price action to remain challenging and volatile.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

After yesterday’s nasty whipsaw as oil plunged into negative prices for the first time in history, a shell shocked market braces for what comes next.  Can the market hold up as businesses report the full impacts of the virus on company earnings?  Only time will tell, but traders should prepare for challenging price action and significant volatility in the weeks ahead.  As the country tries to emerge from the lockdown, one has to wonder what the new normal will look like as we wait for a possible vaccine. 

Asian markets closed in the red across the board in reaction to the collapse in crude prices.  European markets are decidedly bearish this morning with the major indexes sliding south more than 2%.  US Futures point to steep losses at the open with bearish pressure seemingly growing as the morning progresses.  Hold on tight; the open is shaping up to be a bumpy one!

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have more than 100 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include KO, NFLX, CP, CB, CMA, DOV, EMR, FITB, FLR, JBLU, LMT, NAVI, PM, PLD, REV, SNAP, SIX, SYF, TXN & TRV.

Top Stories

Citing the attack of the invisible enemy, the President has decided to suspend all immigration in a move drawing criticism from some and praise from others.

Anti-lockdown protests have sprung up around the country, with many finding themselves confronted by pro-lockdown protesters. Governor’s, say that its understandable everyone wants to bet back to normal but would like to see increased testing available before easing restrictions.

Yesterday oil experienced a historic event with the price dropping into negative territory.  The President is now in the market to buy 75 million barrels to top of the strategic reserve, but some analysts that suggest the price may still go lower as supply continues to surpass demand. 

Technically Speaking

Yesterday the indexes experienced a nasty intra-day whipsaw with Dow traveling nearly 1000 points throughout the day as oil price plunged into the negative on the short-term contracts.  With supplies far outpacing demand, some suggest that oil could still go lower as we wait for the delayed impacts of production cuts.  Coca-Cola reported this morning that the pandemic has hut demand for their products with the volume off by 20% so far in April.  Today we have a big round of earnings, and the futures point to the nervousness of the market currently suggesting another gap down of more than 300 points.  As I’ve mentioned before, this earnings season is likely to be very challenging with extreme volatility as we learn of the real business impacts of the pandemic.

 The good news thus far is that the DIA and SPY have built helpful consolidation that may well prove to hold as support in today’s pullback.  If it does hold, we could see bulls step up buying the dip, but should it fail the slide south to the next level of support will damage the current trends and shake the confidence of recovery.  The QQQ continues as the strongest index, but appearing a bit overextended in the short-term a pullback to test the support of the 50-day average is not out of the question.  We should expect and plan our risk with the idea that more intra-day whipsaws and full-on overnight reversals are possible in the days and weeks ahead.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

The remarkable rally off the lows now faces the bulk of earnings, and we will finally see the actual company impacts of the pandemic.  It seems everyone and their dog is attempting to predict what comes next when in truth, anything is possible.   Expect significant price volatility, stay focused on price, and remember what we want to happen is not important; what current price action indicates is!  Predictions are worthless without price action confirmation.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight as China cuts prime loan rates.  European markets are modestly lower this morning across the board as Germany begins to reopen its economy.  Reacting to plummeting US Crude prices, the futures point to a Dow gap down of more than 400 points ahead of earnings reports.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

As we begin the new week and a ramp-up of earnings with 77 companies stepping up to report.  Notable reports include ALLY, ACC, EFX, HAL, IBM, MTB, NVR, TFC, & ZION.

Top Stories

US crude price dive over 20% due to the coronavirus crushes the demand and pulling the futures lower this morning.  Prices on the May contract for West Texas cured tanked 19%  to $14.80 per barrel and could remain under pressure for the next month, as reserves continue to grow.

The Senate is nearing a vote on a 370 billion dollar deal for small businesses that had quickly run out of money due to the virus impacts. 

As numbers begin to improve in Germany, the country will start to reopen, allowing some shops, car dealerships, etc. while hot spots around the world such as Singapore, Spain, and Russian continue to spike.

Technical Speaking

The remarkable rally that has recovered more than 50% of the virus sell-off now faces a big week of earnings reports and crude oil prices plunging.  The DIA remains under its 50- day average, but the SPY managed to close just slightly above the critical psychological level.  Sadly at the time of writing this report, US futures point to a gap down that could produce failure patterns at the 50-day average at the open.  The QQQ having surged well past its 50-average is not in jeopardy of failing this necessary technical support, but after rising more than 14% in just 9-day appears quite over-bought in the short-term.

There are those predicting that this current rally will continue with all the Federal spending and the unlimited operations of the FOMC seemingly buying up everything in sight.  However, there seems to be an equal number of those predicting that as earnings begin to reveal the actual damage of the virus that we will see a retest of market lows and maybe even new market lows!  As for me, I will avoid all the predictions, set aside my bias, and simply trade the chart.  The fact of the matter is that retail traders have little to no impact on the direction, so the best course of action is to stay focused on price action sticking to your rules and trading plan.  As we wade deeply into 2^nd quarter earnings, expect volatility to remain high with enough intr-day whipsaws and overnight reversals to keep us on our toes.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

A hopeful virus treatment from GILD and the President presenting a 3-phase plan to begin reopening the economy has the futures hopping and popping this morning as we head into the weekend.  This morning’s gap will bring the DIA and the SPY up to test their 50-day averages.   Good news for sure, but let’s not forget that more than 20 million Americans are unemployed, and states are running out of funds to cover claims.  Stimulus checks have been delayed, and the small business loan program is nearly out of funds.  I guess what I’m saying is be careful, chasing this huge gap with the fear of missing out!

Asian markets rallied overnight despite a 6.8 quarterly contraction in the economy and a doubling the virus death toll sitting accounting lapses.  European markets are decidedly bullish this morning with the DAX and CAC up more than 4%.  US Futures point to a massive gap up heading into a very light day on the economic and earnings calendar. Let’s party, but keep in mind next week we jump headlong in earnings next week.  Plan your risk carefully!

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Friday earnings calendar, we have a little lighter day with just 27 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include KSU, MUSA, RF, & STT.

Top Stories

China says its economy shrank by 6.8 in the first quarter by 6.8%, which is the first quarterly contraction in over 28 years.  They have also more than doubled the death toll from the virus calling it accounting lapses.  Hmm?

The President announces a 3-phase plan to reopening the economy.  However, 7-eastern states have already announced they will remain shutdown until May 15^th.  Sadly the yesterday’s daily death toll nearly doubled the all-time daily high, suggesting just how difficult and uncertain when things may get back to normal.

GILD says their treatment trial is showing promising results but also careful to say there is a lot of testing to go before a treatment protocol is approved and available for mass production.

Technically Speaking

The jobless in this country now total more than 20 million, states are out of unemployment money, and the small business loan program is also running out of money.  Banks slid sharply south yesterday, but the market does not seem care as the steep rally continues even as recession looms.  Due to what the government calls, glitches have delayed stimulus checks to reach the public.  I suspect we will soon hear that more stimulus programs needed and further debit spending on the way. 

Yesterday saw the daily death toll nearly double the previous daily record, but despite that, the President unveiled a 3-phase reopening plan putting states in charge of the decision.  The announcement that GILD has promising results from early-stage trials has the market leaping higher this morning even though an approved treatment is likely still more than a year away.  Back in the old days, they called that market manipulation, but today the market wants to grab on to any ray of hope choosing to ignore the longer-term impacts.  So be it, but be very careful chasing such a massive gap heading into a weekend.  Next week we dive headlong into 2^nd quarter earnings so plan your risk carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

After a dismal round of economic numbers, the bears launched another attack yesterday. Still, the bulls met the challenge holding the selloff above the short-term uptrend and essential price supports.  The tech sector remains the strongest as the QQQ holds above the 50-average showing incredible tenacity amid ugly earnings results.  Now the focus turns once again the Weekly Jobless claims that so far, the market has been able to shrug off choosing to focus on the FOMC operations.  Will the same be true today?  Only time will tell!

Asian markets closed mixed overnight, recovering early losses after Australia’s jobs data came in better than expected.   With Germany announcing plans to ease the countries lock down European markets cautiously rally this morning.  US futures recovered overnight loss and now point to a modestly bullish open ahead of earnings and economic reports.  Remember to stay focused on price.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On this Thursday Earnings Calendar, we have just over 80 companies reporting results.  Notable earnings include ABT, BLK, BK, BX, DHR, DOV, HON, KEY, RAD, SKX, & TSM.

Top Stories

The total number of infections worldwide tops 2 million and over 134,000 people have died.  Singapore’s health ministry reported a reemergence of the virus with 447 new infections, while Germany plans to cautiously ease the lockdown. 

The IMF warned overnight that it expects Asia to have a zero percent growth rate in 2020 and calling it the worst performance in nearly 60 years as a result of the outbreak. 

President Trump stated yesterday that the US has passed the peak of the virus growth, and those lock-down efforts have been successful in slowing the spread. That’s great news, but with the death toll still rising and new hot spots emerging around the country when we can begin ending the lockdown is still unclear.

Technically Speaking

After such a steep rally in the market, yesterday’s selloff amid ugly earnings and shockingly bad economic numbers was not a big surprise.  The surprise is how well the market handled the bad news with the bulls working very hard to defend price support levels and even finding the energy to rally by the end of the day.  Overnight futures traded lower, but after Australia reported better than expected jobs, numbers markets around the world began to improve.  Hopeful news that Germany plans to ease lockdown restrictions and the President saying the US has crested provided additional levity allowing the futures to recover and turn positive.  

The DIA, SPY, QQQ, and IWM all held above the short-term uptrend and critical price support levels.  The QQQ remains the technically strongest index having recovered its 50-day average with the IWM drags along behind as the weakest.  Gold and Bonds were strong yesterday as fears rose early in the day after very disappointing retail sales and housing numbers were released.  This morning US Futures point to modestly bullish open ahead Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Survey, including several notable earnings reports.  To date, the market has been able to shrug off the historic unemployment numbers perhaps today will be the same with expectations of 5 to 6 million new claims.  Anything is possible, so stay focused and stick to your rules.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

With the US economy mostly shutdown and no certainty as to when it may begin to reopen, the indexes have displayed the power of the Fed and its multi-trillion dollar operations.  The Dow has retraced 50% of the selloff while the AMZN led QQQ has recovered more than 60% off the March lows.  The question now is, can this remarkable rally hold-up as we begin earnings and see the full impacts of the virus in the economic data?  After such a strong rally, a pullback or a lengthier consolidation would not be out of the question.  Be careful, the fear of missing out is a strong emotion that causes traders to chase and over-trade extended rallies.

Asian markets closed modestly lower across the board after the IMF warns a severe global recession on the horizon.  European markets are pulling back this morning as they weight the massive economic impacts after the IMF warning.  US Futures point to a substantial overnight reversal ahead of big bank earnings and several economic reports that may prove to be market-moving.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Due to a computer issue the rest of the blog will not appear today. Sorry for the inconvenience.