Speculation and Trepidation

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Speculation and Trepidation

It would seem rather obvious that the next several days of this earnings silly season will be ruled by tremendous speculation and trepidation.  Perhaps the market could do better with a psychological analyst than a technical analyst due to the emotional reactions we will likely see the rest of the week.  Today we have housing data, consumer confidence numbers, and a large group of earnings reports that will reach a feared pitch when GOOGL and MSFT report after the bell.  As the market reacts, expect very challenging price action with whipsaws and significant morning gaps. 

Asia market finished the day with primarily bullish results, led by Hong Kong, up 1.67% at the close.  Unfortunately, European markets look mostly lower this morning as they wait on earnings results and the FOMC decision Wednesday afternoon.  Likewise, U.S. futures point lower this morning after some early disappointing earnings results, but anything is possible by the open as data continues to roll out.  Experienced day traders will likely have the upper hand as the market reacts to the tech giant reports throughout the week. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Tech Giant reports begin after the bell today with a busy morning to set the stage for volatility.  Notable reports include GOOGL, MSFT, MMM, AGYS, ACI, ADM, BXP, BYD, CNC, CMG, CB, KO, GLW, ENPH, FE, FISV, GE, GM, IEX, JNPR, KMB, MSCI, MCD, MDLZ, NAVI, PCAR, PII, PHM, RTX, SSTK, SKK, SAVE, SYK, TER, TXN, TRU, UBS, UPS, V, VIST, WH, XRX, YNDX, & ZION.

News & Technicals’

A late Monday announcement from WMT, which cut quarterly and full-year profit estimates citing rising food inflation.  WMT plunged nearly 9% in extended trading, dragging down other retail stocks, TGT fell 4,7%, AMZN dropped 3%, M & DG declined 4.3% & 3.3% respectively.  CEO Doug McMillon said aggressive markdowns on items such as clothing are also hurting margins.  General Motors reported second-quarter earnings that fell short of Wall Street’s estimates after supply chain issues led it to ship fewer vehicles than expected.  GM also confirmed that it had secured the battery materials needed to build 1 million EVs annually by 2025.  The company maintained its previous earnings guidance for the full year and expected to ramp up production in the second half.  With second-quarter GDP data due Thursday, the question of whether the economy is in recession will be on everyone’s mind.  The economy stands at least a fair chance of hitting the rule-of-thumb recession definition of two consecutive quarters with negative GDP readings.  Should inflation stay at high levels, that will trigger the biggest recession catalyst, namely Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said “we just don’t have” conditions consistent with a recession.  Major U.S. and European banks should be prosecuted for “committing war crimes” over their financing of the Russian regime, according to a top aide to Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.  Oleg Ustenko, an economic advisor to Zelenskyy, said the Ukrainian government believes banks, such as JPMorgan, HSBC, and Citi, are aiding the Kremlin’s war efforts in Ukraine.  “Everybody who is financing these war criminals, who are doing these terrible things in Ukraine, are also committing war crimes in our logic,” he told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble on “Capital Connection” on Tuesday.  UBS posted a net profit attributable to shareholders of $2.108 billion, below analyst expectations aggregated by the Swiss bank.  As market declines accelerated across equity and fixed income in the second quarter, the bank’s wealth management division took a hit.  However, CEO Ralph Hamers told CNBC that this had been largely offset by rising interest rates, with the U.S. Federal Reserve embarking on an aggressive hiking cycle to reel in inflation.  Treasury yields moved slightly lower in early Tuesday trading, with the 2-year pricing at 3.00%, the 5-year at 2.84%, the 10-year at 2.75%, and the 30-year dipping to 2.98%. 

The silly season will hit its stride today with tremendous speculation and trepidation as we wait on the tech giants GOOGL and MSFT to report after the bell today.  Toss in the busy morning slate of earnings reports, a reading on Consumer Confidence and housing with Case-Shiller & New Home Sales, and we have the recipe for wild price action.  Then, of course, the market will also have to deal with the anxiety of the pending FOMC rate decision Wednesday afternoon.  I think it goes with saying that anything is possible, and even the best technical analysis likely won’t be of much use as the emotion spill out in reaction to the data.  Protect your capital and prepare for intraday whipsaws and possible significant morning gaps the rest of the week. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Substantial Earnings Speculation

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Substantial Earnings Speculation

Though this week’s uncertainty created some profit-taking in Friday’s market, the substantial earnings speculation continued despite the lowered expectations as the talking heads hyped the possibilities.  Trader’s have one more day before the FOMC meeting begins; the fireworks show ignites with MSFT reporting after Tuesday’s bell.  Plan for wild price gyrations and prepare for substantial morning gaps as the market reacts to the data.  This week could be the make-or-break point for a bullish rally, so plan carefully and avoid overtrading due to the massive risks.

Asian markets closed mostly lower overnight as tech stocks slipped, and the China banking and real estate pressures created downgrades.  However, European markets see nothing but green this morning as they wait on the big week of data.  U.S. futures reversed early selling, pointing to a bullish gap open with high hopes of good giant tech earnings results and a less aggressive FOMC rate increase.  Be careful to ingest too much hoipum while we wait!

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a very busy earnings week highlighted by market-moving tech giant reports.  Notable reports include AGNC, BOH, BRO, CDNS, CVLG, CR, DX, WIRE, FFIV, PHG, NEM, NXPI, PKG, PETS, PCH, SMBK, SCCO, SQSP, SUI, &  WHR.

News & Technicals’

According to a report published late Thursday, Goldman Sachs slashed its earnings outlook for the MSCI China stock index to zero growth for the year, down from 4%.  China’s property market has come under renewed pressure in the last several weeks as many homebuyers stopped mortgage payments.  The property market might take five years to recover from oversupply in China’s smaller cities, according to Henry Chin, head of research for Asia-Pacific at CBRE.  China’s securities regulator told CNBC in a statement it has not researched a plan for a three-tiered system to help Chinese companies avoid U.S. delisting.  The China Securities Regulatory Commission added that companies should comply with data security and listing rules, regardless of whether they were going public on the mainland or abroad.  The regulator said other information about ongoing discussions with U.S. regulators should come from official announcements.  For example, the WHO declared monkeypox a global health emergency.  The rare designation means the WHO now views the outbreak as a significant enough threat to global health that a coordinated international response is needed.  The WHO last issued a global health emergency in January 2020 in response to the Covid-19 outbreak.  Europe is the epicenter of the outbreak.  Right now, men who have sex with men are the community at the highest risk.  The WHO chief said the global risk is moderate, but the threat is high in Europe.  The WHO chief said that monkeypox is unlikely to disrupt international trade or travel right now.  World leaders swiftly condemned Russian missile strikes on a Ukrainian port.  The dramatic revelation comes from a U.N.-brokered deal that secured a sea corridor for grains and other foodstuff exports.  The strike on Odesa, Ukraine’s largest port, illustrates yet another anxious turn in fruitless efforts to mitigate a mounting global food crisis.  Treasury yields moved slightly higher in early Monday trading, with the 2-year trading at 2.99%, the 5-year at 2.88%, the 10-year at 2.80%, and the 30-year trading at 3.04%.

The miss on the PMI and the uncertainty of tech giant earnings ahead created some profit taking on Friday though substantial earnings speculation remained high.  Overnight futures traded negative as Asian markets sold off, but the premarket pump recovered loss despite the uncertainty of all the market-moving data coming our way this week.  However, today we have one more day for the talking heads, analysts, and traders to pontificate, predict, and gamble on what comes next.  It all begins on Tuesday with the beginning of the FOMC meeting and the MSFT report after the bell.  We should expect wild price volatility and the potential of significant morning gaps as the market gaps.  Anything is possible, so plan your risk carefully and remember one of the primary jobs of a trader is to protect your capital! 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Tech Earnings Speculation

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Although the economic data was surprisingly bearish, the tech earnings speculation outweighed everything else, providing another good day for the relief rally.  The T2122 indicator continues in a short-term overbought condition for the indexes, but the bulls appear more than willing to buy up risk ahead of the GDP report and FOMC rate increase betting big on tech giant earnings results next week.  The miss and the nearly 30% decline indicated after the SNAP earnings disappointment was shaken off this morning as the premarket pump recovered early losses.

Asian markets traded mixed overnight as Japan continues to report rising inflation.  European markets trade with modest gains across the board in a choppy session after the ECB rate increase.  U.S. futures recovered much of the overnight losses pointing to a flat open as I write this report ahead of earnings results and PMI data.  Plan your risk carefully, heading into next week’s significant market-moving reports.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have just over 20 confirmed reports this morning as we wind down this trading week.  Notable reports include AXP, ALV, CLF, GNTS, HCA, NEE, NEP, RF, SLB, & VZ.

News & Technicals’

On Thursday, Amazon said it would buy primary-care provider One Medical for $3.9 billion.  Amazon’s three most significant acquisitions are a grocery chain, a movie studio, and a health company.  These deals show the company’s willingness to spend big to grow fast in new businesse areas identified as strategic growth opportunities.  The office vacancy rate in San Francisco rose to 24.2% in the second quarter from 23.8% in the prior period, according to CBRE research.  Big tech employers like Salesforce and Google are staying flexible when it comes to bringing people back.  Small businesses that count on tech workers struggle to stay afloat if they haven’t already closed their doors.  Convenience store chain 7-Eleven has slashed roughly 880 corporate jobs in the United States.  The eliminations come roughly a year after it completed its $21 billion acquisition of rival C-store business Speedway.  According to a spokesperson, the cuts were of certain jobs in the company’s Irving, Texas, and Enon, Ohio, support centers, as well as field support roles.  The average price for a used car is $33,341, which is $172 below the peak in March, according to CoPilot research.  Nearly new vehicles (1 to 3 years old) have an average listing price of $13,145 more than if typical depreciation had occurred over the past two years.  A separate report shows that high used-car prices have pushed the average trade-in value above $10,000 for the first time.  Snap missed on the top and bottom lines in its second-quarter earnings report.  The company authorized a stock repurchasing program of up to $500 million.  Snap said it plans to “substantially slow our hiring rate, as well as the rate of operating expense growth.”  Treasury yields declined sharply in early Friday trading in response to ECB action.  The 2-year declined to 3.03%, the 5-year dipped to 2.93%, the 10-year fell to 2.82%, and the 30-year dropped to 3.02%.

Despite the rise in jobless claims and the Philly Fed MFG Index’s substantial decline, the bulls had another good day on Friday, choosing to favor tech earnings speculation over economic data.  The after-the-bell earnings miss from SNAP has the stock indicated to decline nearly 30% at the open, but as I write this report, the premarket pump has also shaken off that disapointment.  Indexes remain in a short-term oversold condition, and volume remains noticeably low as the relief rally extends.  Today we get the latest reading on the PMI Flash, and then we wait on next week’s GDP and FOMC rate decision, along with a hectic schedule of tech giant earnings.  Though a pullback could occur at any time, the remarkable willingness to rush into risk ahead could keep the bulls in charge heading into the weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Extended Condition

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Extended Condition

Disappointing home sales and mortgage data produced a bullish but choppy price action as the indexes remained in a short-term extended condition.  Traders and investors will have to grapple with our most significant day of earnings so far this quarter, as well as Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed MFG data.  We may also see a market reaction to the pending ECB rate decision as they begin fighting record inflation.  Bullish earnings speculation remains strong but be careful not to overtrade and take some profits with the FOMC and GDP coming our way next week.

Asian markets traded mixed overnight as the Bank of Japan held trades steady.  European markets trade mixed with muted results as they wait on the ECB rate decision.  With a big day of market-moving data ahead, U.S. futures suggest a mixed open as I write this report but prepare for about anything as the market reacts to the results.  Market emotion is high, so don’t rule out the possibility of some significant point swings. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have our most hectic day of the week on the earnings calendar, with more than 70 companies listed.  Notable reports include ABB, ALK, AAL, T, AN, DHI, DHR, DPZ, DOV, FITB, ISRG, KB, NOK, NUE, PM, SAP, & TRV.

News & Technicals’

According to reports, the European Central Bank could go big on its first rate hike in 11 years.  A new anti-fragmentation tool and a sizeable rate hike would come as the ECB deals with its primary mandate: price stability.  The eurozone inflation print for June came in at 8.6%, up from 8.1% in May, and German producer prices in June were 32.7% higher than a year earlier.  There had been concerns across the region that there could be a complete shutdown of gas supplies via the pipeline after it was closed earlier this month for maintenance.  However, data on operator Nord Stream’s website showed that flows increased from zero to 29,284,591 kWh/h for 0600-0700 Central European Time Thursday.  On July 10, the last day of operations before the maintenance work began, flows were roughly the same level, just above the 29,000,000 kWh/h.  Speaking to Parliament, Draghi said he was going to speak to President Sergio Mattarella and inform him of his intentions after failing to unite his fragile coalition government.  Last week, Mattarella rejected Draghi’s first resignation and asked him to lead more negotiations with lawmakers in the hope of avoiding snap elections.  United Airlines on Wednesday notched a key profit milestone in its pandemic recovery.  However, it said it will scale back its growth plans through 2023.  Airlines have reported strong demand as well as high costs for fuel and other expenses.  Microsoft eases hiring as economic concerns affect more of the tech industry but declined to specify which divisions will slow the hiring pace.  The company lowered its quarterly earnings guidance in June but attributed the move to changing exchange rates.  The Asian Development Bank has cut the growth forecast for China due to concerns over the country’s zero-Covid approach and strict lockdowns, which have also impacted its troubled property market.  As a result, gross domestic product growth for the world’s second-largest economy is expected to be at 4% in 2022, down from an earlier estimate of 5%, ADB said in a report published Thursday.  China’s continued “adherence to a zero-covid strategy in response to renewed outbreaks early in 2022 has triggered the reimposition of strict lockdowns,” the bank wrote in its report.  Treasury yields rose slightly in early Thursday trading, with the 2-year inverted trading at 3.23%, the 5-year at 3.18%, the 10-year at 3.04%, and the 30-year at 3.17%.

The short-term extended condition of the market, disappointing housing data, and some mixed earnings results produced a choppy day of price action, but overall the bulls won the day.  However, today will be our biggest day of earnings results so far this quarter which means anything is possible as traders react.  We also face a pending ECB rate decision; Jobless Claims that have recently experienced a slow creep upward as well as Philly Fed MFG data.  Unfortunately, the rising bond yields and 2/10 inversion continue to suggest a recession adding an element of uncertainty despite the hopeful bullishness of the recent relief rally.  So continue to expect challenging price action with overnight gaps and reversals in the days and weeks ahead.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bulls had a Really Good Day

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Price resistance levels cut like butter as the bulls had a really good day following through from the overnight reversal with the Dow more than 1700 points off the low just four trading days ago.  There suddenly seems to be no concern that bond yields point toward a recession, and with the coming rate hike, the desire to hurry up and buy something is taking over.  However, be careful not to chase or overtrade, with the T2122 indicator suggesting a short-term overbought condition. 

Asia markets rallied strongly overnight in reaction to the U.S. buying surge, with the Nikkei leading the buying, up 2.67%.  However, European markets have reversed early bullishness after their inflation hit a 40-year high of 9.4%, worrying that Russia will shut down energy supplies.  U.S. futures have also reversed from early bullishness after mortgage demand dropped to a 22-year low as inflation-driven rate hikes damage home buying demand.  That said, don’t rule out the power of earnings and the fear of missing out as the wild volatility in price action continues.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The Wednesday calendar has about 30 confirmed earnings reports.  Notable reports include ABT, ASML, BKR, BIIB, CMA, CCI, CSX, KMI, NDAQ, NTTRS, PACW, TSLA, & UAL.

News & Technicals’

Netflix lost nearly 1 million subscribers in the quarter after forecasting a dip of 2 million.  The company forecast 1 million net adds for the third quarter, below Wall Street estimates of 1.8 million.  Netflix is counting on changes, such as cracking down on password sharing and adding an advertising tier, to start in 2023.  Bitcoin surged as high as $23,800 Wednesday, up 8% in 24 hours and trading at levels not seen since mid-June.  Traders took comfort from the prospect of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve that is less aggressive than feared.  Ether climbed above $1,500 amid optimism over a highly anticipated upgrade to its network known as the “Merge.”  According to U.S. intelligence, Russia is laying the groundwork to annex parts of Ukraine.  “We’re seeing ample evidence and intelligence and in the public domain that Russia intends to try to annex additional Ukrainian territory,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters at the White House.  Kirby that the U.S. observed a similar Russian playbook in 2014 ahead of the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula on the Black Sea.  Citing supply chain challenges due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Gupta said the two countries capture a large part of the market share.  Russia and Ukraine are the largest exporters of krypton — a gas used in chip production.  Semiconductors are used in everything, from mobile phones and computers to cars and home appliances.  Rising inflation and expectations of more monetary tightening are already causing a “consumer-led slowdown,” said Gupta.  Last week, a spike in reported numbers of homebuyers halting mortgage payments prompted many banks to announce their low exposure to such loans.  Across banks covered by Goldman Sachs, average exposure to property, including mortgages, was just 17%.  If more homebuyers refuse to pay their mortgages, the poor sentiment would reduce demand — and theoretically, prices — in a vicious cycle.  “It is critical for policymakers to restore confidence in the market quickly and to circuit-break a potential negative feedback loop,” Goldman Sachs chief China economist Hui Shan and a team said in a report Sunday.  Treasury yields dipped slightly in early Wednesday trading, with the 2-year inverted at 3.13%, the 5-year at 3.11%, the 10-year at 2.98%, and the 30-year trading at 3.15%. 

The bulls had a really good day on Tuesday, with the Dow closing up more than 1700 points from the low just four trading days ago.  The buying party continued after the bell, with NFLX jumping more than 6% despite losing nearly 1 million subscribers and declining revenue.   European inflation hit a 40-year high of 9.4%, with the risk of Russia shutting off the energy supply, yet the bulls push for a positive open fuelled by tremendous earnings speculation.  The T2122 indicator suggests a short-term overbought condition, but that does not mean we can’t go higher, as the fear of missing out is a powerful motivator.  That said, don’t allow greed to prevent you from taking some profits in case of a sudden reversal of sentiment comes into play.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Pop and Drop

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Pop and Drop

Although we began the trading week with an exuberant gap up, the fade into a pop and drop pattern at price resistance on weak volume left more questions than answers.  The price action left behind bearish engulfing and dark cloud cover candle patterns on the index charts but can the bear follow, or will the bull find the energy to defend?  With increasing earnings reports and a reading on Housing Starts and Permits before the bell, prepare for just about anything with a dose of high price volatility to test technical and price resistance.  Silly season is underway, so plan carefully and avoid trading as the drama unfolds.

 Overnight Asian market seemed to struggle with direction closing the day with mixed results.  European markets trade in the red across the board this morning seemly uncertain about the earnings results.  However, U.S. futures again point to a gap up open ahead of possible market-moving data as the high earnings speculation continues.  Expect another bumpy day of price action, and the bulls and bears duke it out at technical and price resistance levels.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have about 20 confirmed earnings reports to deal with on the Tuesday calendar.  Notable reports include ALLY, CALM CFG, HAL, HAS, IBKR, JNJ, JBHT, LMT, MAN, NFLX, NVS, TFC, & UCBI.

News & Technicals’

The majority state-owned Gazprom said Monday that it is not in a position to comply with gas contracts with Europe due to unforeseeable circumstances.  Germany’s energy firm Uniper confirmed to CNBC that Gazprom had claimed “force majeure” on its supplies.  “We consider this unjustified and have formally rejected the force majeure claim,” Lucas Wintgens, spokesperson for Uniper, told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach.  New data from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows that miners are rapidly exiting their bitcoin positions.  14,000 bitcoin, or more than $300 million at its current price, were transferred out of wallets belonging to miners in a single day — and in the last few weeks, miners have offloaded the largest amount of bitcoin since Jan. 2021.  According to Treasury Department data released Monday, China’s portfolio of government debt in May dropped to $980.8 billion.  It marked the first time since May 2010 that China’s holdings fell below the $1 trillion mark.  Netflix announces its second-quarter earnings results on Tuesday.  The company previously projected a loss of 2 million subscribers for the period.  Netflix is adding an advertising tier and cracking down on password sharing to reinvigorate growth, but those maneuvers won’t kick in until later this year.  Goldman Sachs has slowed its hiring and is looking to cut the fees it pays vendors as the investment bank prepares for tougher times.  But New York-based Goldman has another tool in its arsenal to keep expenses under control: A potential return of year-end job cuts, according to a person with knowledge of the situation.  No target exists yet for headcount reduction, according to the person, and the plans are dynamic and could change.  Treasury yields ticked higher in early Tuesday trading, with the 2-year inverted over the 5,10 & 30-year bonds at 3.17%.  The 5-year trades at 3.10%, 10-year at 2.99%, and the 30-year rose to 3.16%.

We kicked off the week with an exuberant gap up, but the early rally quickly faded into a pop and drop at price resistance leaving behind bearish engulfing candle patterns on the index charts.  Indeed a concerning development if the bears can follow through to the downside today.  However, if the bulls find the energy to defend, we may yet have a chance to break overhead price resistance levels finally.  Today we face a growing number of earnings reports to keep the price volatility high with our first big tech NFLX, reporting after the bell.  We will also get a read on the Housing Starts and Permits that consensus suggests moved up slightly over the last month.  The rising bond prices and the sharp reversal in the dollar pushing commodities higher add some uncertainty, so stay focused on the price, continuing to respect resistance levels. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

A Needed Relief Rally

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Although bank earnings continue to disappoint and warn of rising default risks, the bulls kicked off a needed relief rally on Friday.  Speculation and willingness to dive headlong into earnings risk remain surprisingly high, considering the economic conditions.  So, with high emotion, expect overnight gaps, intraday whipsaws, and stocks that miss the lowered expectations to be severely punished.  Watch earnings dates before buying, respect overhead resistance levels, and fear-of-missing-out trade decisions.

Asian markets rallied overnight in reaction to the U.S. bounce, even as oil prices rose 2%.  European markets are also in a bullish mood this morning, seeing green across the board.  Ahead of more big bank earnings, U.S. futures look to extend Friday’s rally pointing to a gap up open before the data.  Expect challenging price action and keep an eye on overhead resistance levels for the possibility of a pop and drop. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

This week we pick up the pace of 3rd quarter earnings.  Notable reports include BAC, SCHW, GS, IBM, PLD, & SYF.

News & Technicals’

Celsius is down to $167 million “in cash on hand,” which they say will provide “ample liquidity” to support operations during the restructuring process.   However, according to its bankruptcy filing, Celsius owes its users around $4.7 billion, and there’s an approximate $1.2 billion hole in its balance sheet.  Restaurants and diners alike are feeling the pinch from the industry’s labor shortage.  According to the National Restaurant Association, the industry is still down 750,000 jobs — roughly 6.1% of its workforce — from pre-pandemic levels as of May.  In the first quarter, customers mentioned short staffing three times more often in their Yelp reviews than in the year-ago period, according to the restaurant review site.  The battle to become the U.K. Conservative Party’s next leader — and the country’s next prime minister — heated up over the weekend.  The five candidates vying for the top job looked more like enemies than colleagues as they went head-to-head in a televised debate on Sunday.  They clashed over taxes, Brexit, and trans rights in the latest leadership debate, questioning each other’s office records and political and ideological perspectives.  Earnings could be a main driver of stocks in the week ahead, after a roller-coaster ride on changing sentiment about how much the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.  Hot inflation data initially sparked speculation the Fed could raise interest rates by a full percentage point.  By the end of the week, strong data and comments from Fed officials quashed those expectations.  In the week ahead, investors are looking to housing data and expect earnings from a broad swath of companies to steer stocks.  Treasury yields rose in early Monday trading, with the 10-year climbing to 2.96% and the 30-year pricing at 3.12%.  Unfortunately, the 2-year continues to point toward a recession at 3.15%, inverted over the five, ten, and thirty-year bonds. 

Despite the disappointing bank earnings, the speculation that lowered earnings estimates will deliver better than expected results kicked off a needed relief rally.  The good news is that the relief was overdue, and we have a little break from the heavily bearish economic reports this week.  The bad news in this all-or-nothing market is the T2122 indicator is quickly reaching the short-term overbought condition with a GDP report and FOMC rate increase just a week away.  As earnings reports ramp up, expect overnight reversals and intraday whipsaws to challenge even the most experienced traders.  With speculation remaining so high, keep in mind that companies that miss expectations will likely get severely punished, so plan carefully!   I believe we will see many disappointing results, so keep an eye on technical and overhead resistance levels for the location for bear attacks. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Defending 2020 Market Lows

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Defending 2020 Market Lows

Although the earnings and economic data pointed to significant economic weakness, the bulls went to work defending 2020 market lows on Thursday.  However, the rally continued to show weak volume, and index prices remain under significant technical and price resistance.  So that raises the question, can they follow through with the second day of bullishness filled with market-moving earnings and economic reports?   We will soon find out but prepare for challenging price action by watching for whipsaws and possible complete reversals if the data inspires the bears. 

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight as China’s GDP missed expectations.  European markets are, however, in bullish mode this morning, showing green across the board.  Ahead of a big day of data, U.S. futures defy weak economic conditions and inflation pointing to a bullish open even as bad bank results roll in.  Plan carefully headed into the uncertainty of the weekend.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The bank majors dominate the earnings calendar today.  Notable reports include BK, BLK, C, PNC, STT, USB, UNH, & WFC.

News & Technicals’

On the one hand, Dimon said the U.S. “economy continues to grow and both the job market and consumer spending, and their ability to spend, remain healthy.”  “But geopolitical tension, high inflation, waning consumer confidence, the uncertainty about how high rates have to go, and the never-before-seen quantitative tightening and their effects on global liquidity … are very likely to have negative consequences on the global economy sometime down the road,” he warned.  The best way to stabilize oil prices is to boost supply, and alternatives to Russian oil are available to the world, said Mathias Corman, the secretary-general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.  On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said a cap on Russian oil prices would be crucial to bringing down inflation.  Industry players told CNBC an improving macroeconomic picture, particular trading patterns, and further shakeout or “deleveraging” could help bitcoin and the crypto market find a bottom.  This could mean further downside for bitcoin to as low as $13,000, will remove the “last remaining weak hands.”  There have been high-profile collapses in the latest “crypto winter,” including lender Celsius and hedge fund Three Arrows Capital.  China eked out GDP growth of 0.4% in the second quarter from a year ago, missing expectations as the economy struggled to shake off the impact of Covid controls.  Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast growth of 1% in the second quarter.  However, retail sales in June rose by 3.1%, recovering from a prior slump and beating expectations for no growth from the prior year.  In the second quarter, mainland China faced its worst Covid outbreak since the height of the pandemic in early 2020.  Starbucks will close 16 U.S. stores, mostly on the West Coast, by the end of July because of safety concerns.  Six stores will close in Greater Los Angeles; six in Greater Seattle; two in Portland, Oregon; one in Philadelphia and D.C.  The move comes as more than 100 stores have voted to unionize since the end of 2021.  Bond yields declined slightly in early Friday trading, with the 2-year slipping to 2.93% and the 30-year dipping to 3.09%.  However, the 2-year remains inverted over five, ten, and 30-year bonds, pricing at 3.12% this morning. 

Disappointing bank earnings, rising jobless claims, and a near-record PPI reading started Thursday with an ugly gap down, but the bulls used that move to buy, defending 2020 market lows.   The T2122 indicator did show a short-term oversold condition at the morning gap down, but the rally is not very convincing so far.  Volume remained suspiciously low, and the indexes remain beneath significant technical and overhead resistance.  Today we face a bigger day of bank earnings, so if you’re a bull, let’s hope the JPM and MS result don’t become expand into a bearish 3rd quarter theme.  Adding to the potential price volatility are Retail Sales, Empire Start MFG., Import & Export Prices, Industrial Production, and Consumer Sentiment data to keep traders guessing as we head into the uncertainty of the weekend.  It could be a hectic day ahead, so plan carefully!

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Aggressively Hawkish FOMC

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Thoughts of an aggressively hawkish FOMC ultimately won the day, as traders and investors tried to rally after the hotter-than-expected CPI reading of 9.1%.  Markets are now pricing in the possibility of a 100 basis point rate increase at the next meeting, bringing out the bears in the overnight futures.  Not only do we face the price volatility of big bank earnings this morning, but we also have Jobless Claims and another look at inflation with the Producer Price index.  Expect challenging price action in the days and weeks ahead as earnings ramp up, and we find out how companies faired as consumers faced tough spending decisions.

Asian markets closed mixed overnight as Singapore tightened its monetary policy.  Across the pond, European markets trade bearishly this morning due to the hot U.S. inflation.  Pondering more rate increases, the beginning of earnings season, and market-moving economic data, the U.S. futures currently point to a significant gap down ahead of the data release.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Today is the official beginning of third-quarter earnings, so here we go with the silly season!  Notable reports include JPM, CTAS, CAG, ERIC, MS, & TSM.

News & Technicals’

“We’re seeing negative spillover effects from [the Russia-Ukraine] war in every corner of the world, particularly with respect to higher energy prices, and rising food insecurity,” Yellen said the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Bali.  “A price cap on Russian oil is one of our most powerful tools to address the pain that Americans and families across the world are feeling at the gas pump and the grocery store right now,” she added.  Traders are betting the Federal Reserve could raise its target fed funds rate by one percentage point at its July 26-27 meeting.  After June’s super hot consumer price index, market expectations began to climb, and they went even higher after the Bank of Canada raised its rate by 1%.  Investors on Thursday will look to Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s comments and June’s producer price report for more clues on what the Fed might do.  Cryptocurrencies have suffered a brutal come down this year, losing $2 trillion in value since the height of a massive rally in 2021.  While there are parallels between today’s meltdown and crashes past, a lot has changed since the last major bear market in crypto.  The crypto market has been flooded with debt thanks to the emergence of centralized lending schemes and so-called “decentralized finance.”  The collapse of the algorithmic stablecoin terraUSD and the contagion effect from the liquidation of hedge fund Three Arrows Capital highlighted how interconnected projects and companies were in this cycle.  Crypto company Celsius has started the process of filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.  According to a source, CNBC reported that the company’s lawyers were notifying individual U.S. state regulators of those plans, who asked not to be named because the proceedings were private.  Celsius made headlines a month ago after freezing customer accounts, blaming “extreme market conditions,” and joins a list of other high-profile crypto bankruptcies.  Bond yields rose in early Thursday trading, with the 10-year trading at 2.95% and the 30-year lifting slightly to 3.12%.  However, the most concerning is the expanding inversion of the 2/10 bonds as the 2-year rose to  3.19%.

The market tried to shake off the 9.1 inflation reading yesterday after gapping sharply lower, but the realization of an aggressively hawkish FOMC closed indexes lower on the day.  With the index charts now threatening a lower low, traders are betting the Fed to raise rates by 100 basis points just as we kick off earnings season.  Today we also face Jobless Claims that have started to creep up and another inflationary reading of the Producer Price Index.  Expect a challenging day of price action as the data is revealed, and plan your risk carefully into Friday with another round of likely market-moving data.  Inexperienced traders may be better served avoiding the risk and observing the drama from the sidelines to protect their capital!

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Waiting on the CPI

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Waiting on the CPI

The Tuesday morning session quickly reversed the overnight session, only to reverse again in the afternoon session, waiting on the CPI and the uncertainty of what happens next.  The good news is that the choppy low-volume range-bound price action will likely end soon, but the big question is which way?  If the CPI doesn’t break the logjam, perhaps the PPI and the beginning of the 3rd quarter earnings will do the job.   However, expect price volatility to remain high the rest of the week as we face Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers on Friday and another FOMC rate decision just around the corner.  Buckle up the silly season is about to begin!

During the night, Asian markets recovered from early losses to close the day with modest gains.  However, European markets are more pensive about the pending U.S. inflation data currently trading in the red across the board.  However, trying to put on a brave face, U.S. futures trade in the green despite the declining mortgage applications and the pending CPI number, which could change everything by the open.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have just eight confirmed earnings reports on the Wednesday earnings calendar that are mostly very small-cap companies.  Notable earnings include DAL & FAST.

News & Technicals’

President Biden is on his way to Saudi Arabia.  While campaigning in 2019, Biden vowed to treat the Saudi kingdom as “the pariah that they are,” and as president, he vocally criticized the country’s human rights abuses.  Recently, Biden wrote in an op-ed that “from the start, my aim was to reorient — but not rupture — relations with a country that’s been a strategic partner for 80 years.”  A federal judge in a New York bankruptcy court has frozen the remaining assets of the once-prominent crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital.  Judge Martin Glenn of the Southern District of New York granted the emergency motion during a court hearing on Tuesday.  Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai told employees on Tuesday that the company plans to slow down hiring and consolidate investments through 2023.  Pichai wrote that the company will “need to be more entrepreneurial” than it has shown “on sunnier days.”  Microsoft also announced a small percentage of employee cuts yesterday.  The cuts at Microsoft amount to less than 1% of the total headcount.  Microsoft’s Office group took a more cautious approach to hiring in May.  Twitter filed suit against Elon Musk in the Delaware Court of Chancery on Tuesday after the billionaire said he was terminating his $44 billion deal to buy the company.  Twitter said that Musk’s conduct during his pursuit of the social network amounted to “bad faith,” and it accused the Tesla CEO of acting against the deal since “the market started turning.”  Treasury yields traded flat early Wednesday, with the 10-year at 2.96% and the 30-year rising slightly to 3.16%.  Unfortunately, the 2/10 remains inverted, with the 2-year trading at 3.05%.

The Tuesday open quickly reversed the bearishness of the overnight futures but, by the end of the day, reversed again, leaving behind shooting star candle patterns waiting on the CPI inflation data.  However, the waiting is almost over, and the results will likely be the driving force for at least the morning session.  Will it show that inflation is still on the rise as many analysts suggest, or will it show us the Fed’s activity is working?  No matter what it shows, expect considerable price volatility in reaction and then a quick shift to thinking about what happens next when the big banks begin to report on Thursday.  If that’s not enough to keep you on the edge of your seat, remember that the PPI is Thursday morning to add another shot of uncertainty.  Which direction will we go when the choppy low-volume logjam of the last two weeks finally breaks?  Stay tuned because we will likely soon find out!

Trade Wisley,

Doug