Political Drama
Yesterday the Tax Reform bill appeared to be a slam dunk and a vote to was expected to happen at any time. I mentioned yesterday the next couple weeks could be bumpy as all the political drama unfolds. Last nights delay has the Washington spin machine at high speed with both sides churning out more and more dramatic rhetoric. Listen closely, and you can hear the dramatic music reaching a crescendo. One side vows to save the day while the other promises to fight to the death because of horror this bill will bring. Blah, Blah Blah! Unfortunately, the stock market is directly in the line of fire. Traders should be very cautious. Violent price shifts are possible in either direction so plan your risk accordingly.
On the Calendar
Friday’s Economic Calendar has several important reports this morning, but before that happens, we will hear from two Fed Speakers. Bullard speaks at 9:05 AM and Kaplin at 9:30. The PMI Manufacturing Index is at 9:45 AM and forecasters expect a very strong 54.5 print today. At 10:00 AM the IWM Mfg. Index has topped consensus several weeks in a row. However, the forecasters today call for a slight pullback to 58.4 vs. 58.7 last month. Construction Spending is also at 10:00 with the October’s consensus increase at 0.5% due to strength in single-family home building. And then who would have guessed we will hear from yet another Fed speaker at 10:15 AM.
On the Earnings Calendar, we only have 18 companies reporting today none of which are particularly notable.
Action Plan
The promise of Tax Reform spurred the bulls into a full-on stampede yesterday as traders seemed to buy stocks with both hands. The Dow smash through 24,000 finally coming to rest up a whopping 331 points on massive volume. It’s also interesting to note that the VIX also rallied suggesting fear at this evaluation is growing. OPEC’s decision to extend their production reduction program also played a part in pushing the market higher. Oil companies surged higher on the news.
This morning futures are looking lower because the Tax Reform bill suddenly seems to have lost votes. The Senate now says the vote could happen today, but they are scrambling to rewrite provisions of the bill on the fly. I repeated over and over yesterday in the trading room a warning to not chase this rally. Those that did could have a tough lesson learned today. If by chance they fail to get this bill passed we could experience a very dark in the market.
Trade wisely,
Doug
Washington DC Spin
The US Senate is now the top focus of the market as the Tax Reform bill head to the floor for debate. According to reports, a vote could come before the end of business Friday. In my opinion, there is never a more dangerous time in the market then when Politicians, rhetoric and the Washington DC Spin machine is in control. Anything is possible, and high volatility and big intra-day swings can occur. Also, keep in mind that even after the Tax Reform dog and pony show is over we still face a Federal Government shutdown in early December. Who knows what kind of political drama that could create. I suggest if you do trade then trade small and stay on your toes because the price could be very bumpy the next couple weeks.
On the Calendar
The Thursday Economic Calendar begins at 8:30 AM Eastern with two important reports. First, the consensus for the Jobless Claims number this week is 240K vs. 239K on the previous reading. If not for the impacts of Puerto Rico Jobless Claims would be at or near historic lows. Second, is the Personal Income and Outlays report. Personal Income is see rising 0.3% while consumer spending could slow slightly to 0.3%. The Core index expects a 0.2% increase for a yearly rate fo 1.4%. Also at 8:30 AM we have a Fed Speaker and then another at 1:00 PM to pontificate on interest rates. At 9:45 AM is the Chicago PMI which forecasters are calling for a decline to 63.5 vs. 65.2.
On the Earnings Calendar, we have 38 companies reporting. Please continue to check current holdings as well as those you are considering for purchase for reporting dates. Just a few seconds of effort can save you from significant losses if a company reports poorly.
Acton Plan
Yesterday’s price action left behind patterns of uncertainty in the DIA, SPY, and IWM. The QQQ’s on the other hand, reminded us that the bears still exist and their teeth are very sharp! Many trends in the Tech sector broke down yesterday, and there are reversal patterns galore. As bad as it was, please remember it’s not the first move lower that matters. A failure to make a new high after it bounces is where the real selling could begin. The sky is not falling.
New out of Washington that the Senate voted mover the Tax Reform bill forward to floor debate has fired up the Futures this morning. Currently, the Dow futures are suggesting a large gap up at the open. Remember gaps to new market highs can create whipsaw price action producing fast intraday reversals. Be careful not chase and get caught up in the morning drama. A vote to pass the Tax bill could happen within the next 24 to 48 hours. If it happened to fail; well, use your imagination.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Tax Reform
With the Tax Reform bill looking as if it will pass, markets thumbed their nose at North Korea. Who would have guessed that money trumps a threat of nuclear attack? With all this going one would have expected the VIX the have gone wild. Oddly enough the VIX barely moved the entire day! Futures markets want the party to continue this morning with Dow pointing to a gap up around 70 points. Anyone caught holding short positions yesterday got completely run over by stampeding bulls. A very good reminder that shoring an up-trending market is an unwise business decision. Stay with the trend but avoid the temptation to chase and consider taking profits into strength.
On the Calendar
The Economic Calendar starts off with the very important GDP report at 8:30 AM eastern. The 2nd estimate for the 3rd-quarter GDP is expected to come in higher at 3.3 vs. the 3.0 on the first reading. Oddly enough consumer spending is expected have nearly paused, up from 2.4% to only 2.5%. The overall GDP Pirce index is expected to remain unchanged at 2.2%. Janet Yellen speaks at 10:00 AM while the Pending Home Sales Index reports. Consensus expects a sharp rise of 1.0% in October pending home sales. At 10:30 AM is the EIA Petroleum Status report which they don’t estimate forward, but a recent pipeline problem may have decreased stockpiles. There is another Fed speaker at 1:50 PM followed by the Beige Book at 2:00.
On the Earnings Calendar, I see 49 companies reporting results today. TIF is one of the companies reports before the bell while LZB, HOME, JACK, and WDAY are among those reporting after the bell.
Action Plan
All four major indexes ignored the threat of a North Korean nuclear attack setting new record highs across the board. Amazing and just a little spooky is the fact that the VIX barely moved yesterday in response to such a strong rally. Very odd. Even the IWM pitched in yesterday showing nice energy as it reacted higher from price support. Logic would suggest after such a big move the market would take a rest, but currently, futures are pointing to a gap up of nearly 70 points! The surge in bullishness seems to be the direct result of the Tax Reform bill looking as if it will pass.
Thank goodness we stuck to our rules and continued to trade with the trend because we were nicely rewarded yesterday. Continue to trade long but please avoid chasing as this kind of wild bullishness can suddenly find profit takers. Remember the rule, take profits into strength!
Trade Wisley,
Doug
The American Consumer
The American consumer is alive and well according to the sales numbers during the Thanksgiving holiday. Black Friday sales reached new record highs, and now the Cyber Monday sale topped all-time highs coming in a 6.56 billion. The market lacked volume because everyone must have been online looking for deals. As those credit cards begin to cool down the Tax bill in Congress is seriously heating up. Even the President himself is working the Hill trying to secure enough votes to pass this major reform bill. Expect the market to be sensitive to the news on the bill’s progress. Big an very fast price action moves could be possible as the potential votes are won or lost. Let’s hope the Presidents Twitter feed remains quite on the subject! Plan accordingly.
On the Calendar
We kick off the day on the Economic Calendar with the 8:30 AM Industrial Production report. October is expected to widen the deficit from 64.8 billion to 64.1 September. There will also be an advanced report used for GDP inputs. At 9:00 AM is the Case-Shiller home prices number which consensus expects a 0.4% increase in September. At 10:00 AM we get the Consumer Confidence Report which last month was at a 17-year high but is expected to pull back slightly to 124.5. We have Fed Speakers at 9:15 and at 10:00 AM as well as several other nonmarket-moving reports.
On the Earnings Calendar, we show 46 companies reporting today with the biggest group coming after the bell. ADSK, MOMO, AABA, and MRVL are some worth noting.
Action Plan
Yesterday the market just seemed to wander around lacking volume an purpose. Pretty much as expected with extended vacations and Cyber Monday shopping. Unfortunately, the lackluster day left behind questionable daily candle patterns hinting of slight bearishness not nearly enough to shift the bullish trend. This morning Futures are pointing to a gap up open on the back of a new record with more than 6.5 billion in Cyber Monday sales. A very good week to be in the shipping business!
I will continue to look for new trade entries, but I will not chase or force trades. Trading for the sake of having something to do is unwise. I get the sense the market is waiting around to see if Congress follows-through on their Combo Tax Bill – Kill Obamacare plan. A failure to pass could move the market sharply lower so expect the market to be very sensitive new reports. Very fast reversals as this congressional battle progress and the Washington spin machine whips up the drama.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Back to Work?
With the holiday behind us and the Black Friday shoppers, credit cards still smoldering its time to get back to work. Or is it? Those clever retailers will have much of the online-shoppers testing their credit limits with the so-called Cyber Monday deal. Many folks will be back at work, but you can bet their productivity will be lacking as they chase the next flash sale to hit the internet. Keep in mind that the market will be sensitive to the sales numbers produced today. With many traders likely extending the holiday with vacation time and the millions of Cyber Monday shoppers focused on typing in credit card numbers don’t be surprised to see light volume and choppy price action today.
On the Calendar
The Economic Calendar begins the week with a potential market-moving report at 10:00 AM eastern. New Home Sales surged to in September with the largest percentage gain in 28 years and reaching a 10-year high. As a result, the consensus for October new home sales is for a sizable step back to 660K vs. 667K in September. AT 10:30 AM the Dallas Fed MFG. Survey continues to remain strong showing little to no effect from hurricane Harvey. Go Texas! Consensus for November expects a strong print of 24.5. There are several bond auctions today as well as two Fed Speakers this evening at 6:00 and 7:00 PM.
There Earnings Calendar shows just over 30 companies reporting results today. I quickly scanned the list, and I don’t see any big name market-moving reports. However, unknowingly holding a company that’s reporting can certainly move your portfolio. Please make sure to continue checking reporting dates.
Action Plan
As you all know, I went into the Thanksgiving weekend very light in my accounts. Consequently, I will be actively looking for new trades this week. During the evening Futures were headed lower, but around 1 AM they began to rally and currently suggest a modest gap up this morning. On Friday both the SPY and the QQQ’s closed at new record highs while the DIA and IWM choose to consolidate. The QQQ’s have gained market leadership, and as of now, the DIA appears the weakest and not quite able to breakthrough price resistance highs.
On Friday the VIX made a new historic low dipping to 8.56 but quickly seemed to reject that low rallying more than a full point higher. Volume could continue to be light today as may traders likely extended the holiday with some vacation time. With the VIX so low I would also not be surprised to see a bit more volatility. Watch for whipsaws and head fake’s and don’t rule out the possibility of full reversal patterns.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Bears in a Hurt Locker
The Bulls executed a perfect blitz yesterday, overwhelming the Bears and putting them in a hurt locker. For those of us that stayed with the trend, the rewards were fantastic and a reminder to avoid predicting a top. We had new Record High Closes on all the major indexes as this historic bull run continues. Today after the early morning rush I’m expecting the volume to drop off dramatically for 2-reasons. First, traders will extend the holiday and today will be the big get-away-day. Secondly, we have the FOMC minutes coming out this afternoon, and price action normally gets light and choppy ahead of the release. I won’t totally close the door, but I will say it’s highly unlikely that I will add any new positions today. In fact, I will look for profit taking opportunities to reduce risk ahead of the holiday.
On the Calendar
The Wednesday Economic Calendar is a busy one with several potential market-moving reports. 8:30 AM Eastern, Durable Good Orders – Consensus expects a 0.4% increase in durable good orders, take out transportation the number rises to 0.5%. The core capital goods are expected to increase by a very healthy 0.5%. Also at 8:30 is the weekly jobless claims that forecasters see rising from 240K to 249K largely due to Puerto Rico hurricane victims. Consumer Sentiment comes out at 10:00 AM and is seen remaining historically high at 98.1. 10:30 AM brings the EIA oil status report which has been showing supply increases as demand declines. Finally at 2:00 PM, the FOMC Minutes, rounds out the day.
We only have just over 30 companies reporting today but keep an eye on DE as it reports before the bell and could easily move the Dow index.
Action Plan
New records for all of the 4-major indexes as the Bulls squeezed early short traders into covering trades. I must admit I was tempted to put on some short trades last week, but after a close look at the charts I stuck to my rules and stayed with the trend. As a result, Right Way Options members took several very nice profits yesterday. As of right now, the Futures are suggesting more bullishness at the open with Dow gaping higher about 30 points. Of course, all the economic news and earnings reports could extend or erode the morning sentiment.
As per the plan, I have taken profits this week thus lowering my risk as we head into the holiday. Honestly, there is not a thing wrong with the charts. The trend is still very much intact but anything is possible, and I want to enjoy the holiday knowing a large portion of my capital is safely tucked in. Of course, I will continue to hold a few positions, and long-term holdings will not change.
Trade Wisely and Happy Thanksgiving!
Doug
Defend Price Support
It was nice to see the Bulls step up and defend price support levels yesterday. Futures are suggesting the first directional follow-through in the Dow for the last 5-days of trading. Even the Dow Transports, (IYT) held support suggesting at least a short-term rally could be in the cards. The VIX which was stubbornly clinging to price support level finally gave way to bullishness sinking sharply by days end. Let’s keep in mind that even though the futures are pointing to a nice gap up that Thanksgiving is just 2-days away. Volumes could begin to drop off quickly at any time. Even the best of trade signals can and will stall if volume dries up so keep that in mind as you plan.
On the Calendar
On today’s Economic Calendar we have the very important Existing Home Sales at 10:00 AM Eastern. Home sales rose slightly by 0.7% in September to a 5.390 Annualized rate. Forecasters are suggesting a solid growth in home sales with an expected October print of 5.440 million. There are a couple of mid-day bound auctions, but then at 6 PM, Janet Yellen Speaks.
On the Earnings Calendar, we have just short of 60 companies reporting earnings today. LOW has already reported better than expected results this morning. Others include CPB, JEC, KIRK, MBT before the bell and CPRT, CRM, GES, DRYS and GME after the bell.
Action Plan
The market opened a bullish yesterday but a bit on pins and needles with the question; Will the Dow hold at support? The answer came back as yes and now requires a bullish follow-through to confirm. Both the SPY and QQQ’s turned in a lackluster performance yesterday while the IWM continued to show life rallying back toward resistance. As I write the Futures markets are bullish across the board suggesting might actually see the second day in a row in the same direction. Something we have been unable to do for the last five trading days!
Of course, I will continue to manage current positions, but as we move toward the holiday, I will be watching closely for reasons to take profits and reduce risk. I will also continue to look for new entries and building the watchlists of qualified stocks. Be prepared for the possibility that volumes could begin to drop off quickly as Thanksgiving approaches. Great by signals produced in the morning rush can easily die on the vine as volumes drop into the afternoon. Remember it’s the big institutions that move the market. As their traders pack up for holiday vacations volumes can drop quickly, and the price action becomes choppy, boring and virtually untradeable. Keep that in mind as you prepare plans for the remainder of the week.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Deadlocked
Typically the week of Black-Friday the retail stocks put the markets higher in anticipation of the holiday spending frenzy. A quick look at the ETF, RTH on a weekly and monthly chart you will a very nice breakout to new has occurred suggesting a rally is possible. However, a quick look at the indexes and we see up-trends but also a tightly range-bound price action in the DIA, SPY and the QQQs. The Bulls and Bears appear deadlocked in a rising volatility environment. Because of that, I suggest a little caution is in order. If the DIA breaks down through price support, the Bears could gain the advantage. On the other hand, if the QQQ can breakout to new record highs the Bulls could gain the edge. We don’t want to bet caught in this struggle because very quick reversals can happen leaving us staring at large losses. Focus on price action! Clues to which side gains the advantage will always appear there first.
On the Calendar
On the Economic Calendar today we have a very light day. First Leading Indicators at 10:00 AM and then bond auctions and announcements. None of which would be expected to move the market. Keep in mind this is also a Holiday Week which could volumes begin to decline by mid-week making for choppy price action.
On the Earnings Calendar, we have just over 50 companies reporting today. URBN will report this morning, and INTU and PANW are among the afternoon reports.
Action Plan
During the evening futures where sliding south at a pretty quick rate. At my last look before going to bed, the Dow Futures were down nearly 60 points. About 2 AM Futures began to turn around clawing their way all the back to even. As of now, futures are mixed and almost even with Friday’s close. Today the DIA is my biggest concern holding just above price support with a bearish price pattern. Thursday’s big rally now appears on the DIA as a lower high. The SPY and the QQQ’s are in better shape having left behind and inside day. Last week I wrote a lot about the importance of follow-through. As of now, last Thursday’s rally has not only not been unable to follow-through, but the DIA completely reversed on Friday.
As a result, the market is between the preverbal rock and a hard place. A follow-through down in the DIA will test and could even break support possibility emboldening the Bears. All the major averages are currently below resistance levels with the QQQ having the best chance of breaking to new highs. If by chance the QQQ’s can muster the energy to break out the Bulls might be emboldened to push the SPY and the DIA higher. As the indexes are in a pretty tight price range, there is not a lot of room for error. Remain flexible and focused on price action for clues.
Trade Wisley,
Doug
Copy paste this link into a browser to watch the video. https://youtu.be/-Uk1juPZC6Q
Follow-through is Required
The relief rally was just what the doctor ordered. Trader everywhere got that familiar warm and fuzzy feeling that the Bulls are back in control. While it’s true, the Bulls produced wonderful reversal patterns in the index charts let’s not forget Follow-through is Required. One day does not make a trend! Please understand I’m not suggesting bearishness of any kind. I’m merely pointing out how important it is to see the price action as it is, not as we would like it to be. The indexes are at or near all-time-highs which means resistance requires consideration in your planning. Go Bulls!
On the Calendar
The Friday Economic Calendar kicks off at 8:30 AM with the potential market-moving Housing Starts report. The September housing starts number fell sharply to 1.127 million. Multi-family units were particularly weak while single-family units gain ground. The October consensus expects a 1.190 million rate for starts with permits rising to 1.250 million. After that, we have a couple of non-market-moving reports and a Fed Speakers at 12:45 PM.
On the Earnings Calendar, we have about 20 companies reporting today. Retail seems to be the theme today with BKE, ANF, and FL. DRYS is another notable but be careful this one can be really wild.
Action Plan
Yesterday’s short squeeze delivered nice reversal patterns in the all of the four major indexes. The QQQ’s even managed to print new record highs during the day but settled back down to close at the exact high set on 11/8/17. Amazing! So, now what? As great as that move was we have to remember that one day does make a trend! That means it’s going to be very important for the market to show us some follow-through bullish price action. The DIA, and the SPY, still have price resistance above and the QQQ’s closed exactly at the resistance high. Although the IWM rallied strongly yesterday, it still has a lot of heavy lifting to do before we will see a bullish trend in the small-caps. So, come on Bulls dig in and push hard.
As you know on Friday’s I, tend to focus on taking profits rather than adding new risk ahead of the weekend. However, I will be building a shopping list for next week. Of course, I never want to say never so if a great opportunity presents itself I will be more than happy to exploit it for profits. I wish you all a fantastic weekend.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Watch the Morning Video Here: https://youtu.be/FLpNCuV4qvI
