Daily Trade Ideas Public Archives - Page 85 of 245

Chinese and US Economies Both Red Hot

April 16, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher on blowout March Retail Sales and lower than expected new Jobless Claims. Then we saw a rally the first 90 minutes of the day before grinding sideways in a tight range the rest of the day in all 3 major indices, all closing very near the highs. All 3 indices also closed at new all-time highs. On the day, SPY gained 1.08%, DIA gained 0.86%, and QQQ gained 1.51%. VXX fell another 3.30% to 9.97 and T2122 fell a little, but remains just inside the overbought territory at 82.53. 10-year bond yields fell sharply on the day to 1.569% and Oil (WTI) gained a third of a percent to $63.35/barrel.

On a very small sample size, so far this earnings season companies are far above consensus estimates. Of the 34 that have reported as of day-end Thursday, 88% have beat estimates…and beat them by an average of 22%. Overseas Friday, China has announced that its GDP grew 18.3% in Q1. This may help put the recent Chinese clamp-down on bank lending into context. (Which may correlate to US market fears over Fed action as our own economy is also growing very fast.)

In miscellaneous news, In Thursday’s retail sales report, every segment of retail is now above pre-pandemic sales levels with the lone exception of restaurants. The NFL also picked CZR, DKNG, and Fanduel as their sports-betting partners in a 5-year deal worth about $1 billion. Airlines companies have said they are expecting massive domestic travel rebounds, but DAL, UAL, and AAL are still bearish on international traffic (especially to Europe) returning to pre-pandemic levels this year.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,224,139 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 578,993. The number of new cases has ticked higher again and are back above the peak of last summer to an average of 71,919 new cases per day. However, deaths are just starting to plateau again, now at 727 per day. There was a lot of bad news on the vaccine front Thursday. During the day, it was made public that the CEO of PFE had told CNBC on April 1 that it is likely people will need a booster shot within 12 months of being fully vaccinated. At the same event the CEO of JNJ had told CNBC that people may well need to be vaccinated against covid annually. CNBC did not say why this news was kept quiet for two weeks afterwards. The CDC also disclosed that 5,800 who had been vaccinated contracted the virus anyway with about 7% of those infected requiring hospitalization and 74 dying. Paired with fear over blood clots and general ignorance/skepticism about vaccines, this does not bode well for a virus that is quick to evolve (mutate). In skepticism front, over 14 million doses have piled up unused, mainly in Southern states such as MS, TN, AR, AL, GA, LA, and MO.

Globally, the numbers rose to 139,809,244 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,002,313 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is very near the all-time peak and are now at 736,804 per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 11,592 new deaths per day. The WHO said today that the global infection rate is nearing the all-time high again. In South America, Brazil continues to have a new record number of deaths daily and Columbia has locked-down its 5 largest cities again. In Asia, India again had a record number of new cases amidst a religious pilgrimage festival. Other countries in the region reporting surges are Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Cambodia (all of which have instituted some kind of restrictions).

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board on incredibly strong growth numbers out of China. However, interestingly, the increases in exchanges were moderate with Hong Kong (+0.81%) being by far the largest gainer. In Europe, markets are mostly green on more diverse trading. The CAC (+0.35%), FTSE (+0.50%), and DAX (+0.94%) are typical of the spread across the exchanges of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to an open on the green side of flat. The DIA is implying a gain of 0.16%, the SPY implying a gain of 0.10%, and the QQQ implying a gain of 0.03%..

The major economic news scheduled for Friday is limited to Mar. Building Permits, Mar. Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am). The major earnings reports on the day include ALLY, BK, CFG, KSU, MS, PNC, and STT before the open. There are no earnings reports scheduled for after the close.

The bulls just refuse to be denied it seems. For example, the DIA has not seen a significant black candle this month. So, don’t fight the trend. With the strong news out of China and a lack of much data or reports in the US today, the bears are not likely to have much energy. However, also be leery about this kind of bull run lasting too much longer without relief. Long runs without down days or pullbacks isn’t normal.

Follow the trend, don’t predict reversals, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Respect support and resistance. Keep taking your profits off the table when you can and maintain your discipline. Stay on the right side of the market trend and follow those trading rules. As we know, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. Also, remember this is Friday, so prepare for the weekend news cycle, and don’t forget to pay yourself.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Friday, but Rick will be back home Monday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

Earnings Beats and Economic News Lead

April 15, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat on Wednesday despite a blowout quarter announced during pre-market by JPM. The DIA had a small rally the first hour, traded sideways until mid-afternoon and then sold off the rest of the day. The SPY did the same minus the morning rally and the QQQ sold off all day long. This left us with a Bearish Engulfing candle in the QQQ, a Shooting Star type candle in the DIA and just a black candle in the SPY. No record high closes, but none of the 3 are more than 1.25% from their all-time high close. VXX gained 2% to 10.29 and T2122 climbed back into the overbought territory at 87.50. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 1.632% and Oil (WTI) spiked more than 4.5% to $62.93/barrel.

Banks continue to top estimates on blow-out trading gains even amidst loan losses. Today BAC and C followed the lead of JPM, WFC, and GS yesterday in beating on both the top and bottom lines. In other sectors, UNH and PEP also posted beats on both lines.

“Expert” analysts are also expecting a pop from Retail Sales numbers this morning. The driver expected for this move is the $1400 stimulus checks the public has gotten during the last month. In fact those analysts are expecting more than a 6% increase, with some going as far as to say they expect a 10% increase over February. So, the potential exists for disappointment of a miss versus expectations and also for a beat that drives infation fear. Be careful.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,149,223 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 578,092. The number of new cases has ticked higher again and are back above the peak of last summer to an average of 72,688 new cases per day. However, deaths are just starting to plateau again, now at 746 per day. After hours, the CDC decided to postpone a decision on resuming use of the JNJ vaccine while more research can be done on the potential blood clotting issue. In better news, the country will go over 200 million vaccination doses delivered on Friday as the country went over 195 million on Wednesday according to the CDC. Finally, a Duke University report says the US will have 300 million excess vaccine doses by July due to anti-vaxxers, science-skeptics, and evangelicals.

Globally, the numbers rose to 138,976,244 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,988,801 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is very near the all-time peak and are now at 722,922 per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 11,543 new deaths per day. In Asia, India has imposed more restrictions, including a curfew in the capitol amidst another record high number of new cases that has caused banquet halls and hotels to be converted into make-shift hospitals. In Japan, a high-ranking official did not rule out cancelling the Olympics again during an interview with the Tokyo Broadcast System. Closer to home, Brazil is seeing its outbreak continue to see record deaths.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again. Taiwan (+1.25%) was an outlier to the upside with Thailand (-1.61%) an outlier to the downside. Most regionals exchanges showed moderate moves in either direction. In Europe, markets are mostly green on modest moves at this point in the day. The FTSE (+0.33%), DAX (+0.19%), and CAC (+0.22%) are typical with Russia (-0.81%) and Portugal (-0.79%) leading the losses. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a green open. The DIA is implying a +0.40$ open, the SPY implying a +0.44% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.67% open. Bond yields slipped again overnight as well with the 10-year yield now at 1.618%.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Mar. Retail Sales, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), Mar. Industrial Production (9:15 am), Feb Retail Inventories (10 am) and 2 Fed speakers (Bostic at 11:30 am and Daly at 2 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include BAC, BLK, C, DAL, PEP, RAD, TSM, TFC, USB, and UNH before the open. Then after the close, AA, JBHT, PPG, and WIT report.

Despite yesterday’s less than stellar day, the bulls remain in control of the trend and spirits seem buoyed by earnings reported so far. This is shaping up to be a tremendous quarter for growth, meaning the next cycle should be even better than this one for earnings. However, the fear of inflation remains the ghost in the room for markets. With a number of reports coming this morning that could be seen as good or bad despite what they report.

Follow the trend, don’t predict reversals, and don’t chase trades you have missed. Respect support and resistance. Keep taking your profits off the table when you can and maintain your discipline. Stay on the right side of the market trend and follow those trading rules. As we know, consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Thursday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Ship Shortage, CPI, and JNJ Vaccine Pause

April 13, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened just south of flat on Monday and then proceeded to grind sideways the rest of the day. This left us with inside day Doji across all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY gained 0.05% (to a new all-time high close), DIA lost 0.09%, and QQQ fell 0.13%. The VXX fell to 10.17 and T2122 fell outside of the overbought territory to 72.62. 10-year bond yields gained slightly to 1.671% and Oil (WTI) rose two-thirds of a percent to $59.71/barrel.

In Chip news, at the “Chip Summit” President Biden called for the chip, broadband, and battery technology portions of his Infrastructure plan to be approved. He read a letter from 23 senators and 42 House members expressing bipartisan support for $50 billion in government spending for semiconductor manufacturing and research. The 3 major US Auto-makers attended and all decried the loss of earnings and employee hours due to current chip shortages. For their part, the major chipmakers (TSM, INTC, Samsung, etc.) had all already announced tens of billions of dollars of investment (each, TSM having committed more than $100 billion) in new production capacity over the next 2-3 years. However, an Auto-Industry association called for new, immediate tax cuts to help automotive chip manufacturers add lines to existing plants now. In other chip news, NVDA announced it will begin making a server processor to compete with INTC and AMD in the highly-profitable data center market.

Less than a day ago, Fed Chair Powell told CBS 60 Minutes that it was “extremely unlikely” that the Fed consider raising rates this year. However, after-hours Monday, St. Louis Fed President Bullard told Bloomberg that as soon as the US reaches 75%-80% vaccinated, he believes the “tapering debate” will take place. This comes 12 hours before the CPI number and a slew of other Fed speakers weigh in. Elsewhere, Treasury Sec. Yellen announced that China will not be labeled a “Currency Manipulator” in her first semi-annual foreign exchange report to Congress.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,990,143 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 576,298. The number of new cases has ticked higher again to an average of 69,926 cases per day. However, deaths are just starting to plateau again, now at 747 per day. Overnight, the FDA and CDC both called for a pause in the use of JNJ vaccine due to clotting issues. In addition, on Monday CDC Dir. Walensky said that MI should “shut things down” again because vaccinations alone will not stop the overwhelming surge in cases the state is seeing. On the plus side, the CDC also said that 50% of American adults will have at least one dose of vaccine by the end of this week.

Globally, the numbers rose to 137,340,422 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,961,423 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 17,000 per day increase) and are now at 688,363 per day. Mortality, which lags, is rising again at 11,270 new deaths per day. The WHO said Monday that the world has seen a seventh straight week of increasing cases. Today, Germany reported an increase of almost 11,000 cases as the German Health Minister said the country had reached peak ICU capacity. On a brighter side, a new study published by the journal Lancet says the UK variant is much more transmissible but no more severe than the original virus.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Thailand (-1.61%) led otherwise modest losses while India (+1.36%) and South Korea (+1.07%) led otherwise modest gainers. In Europe, markets are mixed on showing only small moves to either side so far Tuesday. The FTSE is down (-0.13%), DAX up (+0.12%), and CAC up (+0.28%) as of mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are all pointing to a modestly red open at this point (before CPI release). The DIA is implying a -0.38% open, the SPY implying a -0.30% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.11% open. Bond yields rose slightly overnight to 1.68% and Oil (WTI) is up half a percent to $60/barrel in premarket trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Mar. CPI (8:30 am) and 4 Fed speakers (Daly at noon, George at noon, Harker at noon, and Bostic at 3:15 pm). Major earnings reports on the day are limited to FAST before the open. There are no major reports after the close.

The fear of inflation may be heightened today with Bullard’s less dovish note last night, CPI numbers this morning, and a slew of other Fed speakers later in the day. However, although we had indecisive moves on Monday, there is no doubting the trend is strongly bullish. With earnings season starting again on Wednesday, we may be in yet another “wait and see” environment.

Don’t predict moves or chase trades you have missed. Respect support and resistance as well as the trend. Keep taking your profits off the table when you can and maintain your discipline. Stay on the right side of the market trend and follow those trading rules. As we know, consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Tuesday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Fed Chair Sees Huge Growth At Hand

April 12, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat on Friday and ground sideways for most of the day. Then the bulls stepped in to rally hard the last 45 minutes of the day, going out on the highs. All three major indices closed at new all-time high closes on strong white candles. On the day, the SPY closed up 0.73%, DIA closed up 0.81%, and QQ closed up 0.61%. The VXX was flat at 10.31 and T2122 remains in the overbought territory at 85.41. 10-year bond yields were flat after the pre-market surge at 1.662% and Oil (WTI) was off half a percent to $59.34/barrel.

In weekend news, after the close Friday, GM announced even more cuts to overtime and shifts at US truck plants due to the global chip shortage. This came after both F and GM announced plans to idle some plants for the same reason. However, GM announced the normal summer downtime weeks will be canceled, in hopes the shortage will be over and production those weeks can make up for shutdowns now. This is all backdrop to a Whitehouse Chip Summit today. However, this summit is not likely to have any short-term impacts. Producers are already selling every chip they can make and it takes years to add Fab capacity to any chip manufacturing company. On Saturday, BABA was fined $2.8 billion (US value) by Chinese regulators for antitrust activities. Sunday it was leaked that MSFT is in late-stage talks to buy AI-technology firm NUAN for a purported value of $16 billion (potentially $56/share).

In other news, Fed Chair Powell told 60 Minutes that the US economy is poised for explosive growth due to vaccines and stimulus. Specifically, he said projections are pointing to the largest increase in GDP since at least 1984. He also said it remains “highly unlikely” the Fed will raise rates this year but expects short-term inflation to be “moderately above the Fed’s 2% target.” In other news, Sunday France made climate change news, as the put forth rules that would ban short-haul commercial flights. The ban would prohibit any flights that cover less than the distance that can be travelled by train in less than 2.5 hours.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,918,601 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 575,829. The number of new cases has ticked higher again to an average of 68,071 new cases per day. However, new deaths are trending down again, now at 755 per day. After another a week of a record number of vaccinations, including a record 4.6 million on Saturday alone, the country will have to deal with an 86% reduction in JNJ vaccine as the company has suffered manufacturing and regulatory clearance of their Baltimore facility. MI continues to be in crisis as the latest surge of cases and hospitalization caused by variants is hitting younger and healthier people in that state.

Globally, the numbers rose to 136,734,096 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,951,407 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 17,000 per day increase) and are now at 668,744 per day. Mortality, which lags, is rising again at 11,54 new deaths per day. In India, things have gotten worse with a seventh straight day of record-high new cases. This comes as the government has outlawed the export of vaccine and treatment drug Remdesivir. India is the world’s largest producer of both. In the UK, more restrictions were lifted, allowing non-essential businesses to reopen. In China, the government admitted the country’s covid vaccines are “not highly effective” (contrary to their earlier reports) and that solutions would include more shots, increased dosages, or mixing those vaccines with others that are based on different technologies (such as PFE, MRNA, JNJ, or AZN vaccines).

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly solidly red. The flat exchanges South Korea (+0.12%) and Taiwan (+0.03%) were the lone green for the day. Shenzhen (-2.30%), India (-3.53%), and Shanghai (-1.09%) led the losses. In Europe, markets are mixed but lean to the red side so far today. The FTSE (-0.30%), DAX (+0.15%), and CAC (+0.14%) lead as usual midday based on their size. However, most smaller exchanges are following the FTSE lead. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are all on the red side of flat at this point. The DIA is implying a -0.12% open, the SPY implying a -0.10% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.21% open. Bond yields held steady overnight, but Oil (WTI) is up 1.33% in premarket trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to the 10-year bond auction (1 pm) and Mar. Federal Budget Balance (2 pm). There are no major earnings reports on the day.

The trend remains bullish as of Monday morning, with all 3 major indices sitting at all-time highs, the Fed Chair predicting blowout economic growth, and no major news scheduled for the day. Yet the rest of the world and US premarkets are showing some concern. With earnings season starting again on Wednesday, we may be in a wait and see environment. So, it would not hard to imagine that markets may might drift today. However, that trend is clearly bullish and those bulls do love new highs.

Respect support and resistance as well as the trend. Don’t predict moves or chase trades you have missed. Keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and maintain your discipline. Stay on the right side of the market trend and follow your trading rules. As we know, consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Monday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Fed Keeps Saying Don’t Sweat Inflation

April 9, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets started the day Thursday in a divergent situation. The QQQ gapped higher by nine-tenths of a percent, with the SPY gapped up a third of a percent, and the DIA opened down just a fraction. From there all three ground sideways with a slight bullish slant the rest of the day. This left all three closing very near the highs and left the SPY as a potential Hanging Man candle at an all-time high close. On the day, the DIA closed up 0.23%, the SPY closed up 0.47%, and the QQQ closed up 1.04%. VXX closed down again to 10.33 and T2122 rose back into the overbought territory at 86.05. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.628% and Oil (WTI) gained slightly to $59.89/barrel.

After hours Fed member Brainard followed the suit of her peers saying that the economy is improving, but is still far from where it needs to be. This echoes the sentiments of discussion that were seen in the March FOMC minutes released earlier in the afternoon. The point repeatedly made is that the Fed will not tighten regardless of short-term inflation, as long as we are not at “full employment.”

In the AMZN union vote in AL, it turns out that the company spent just under $330 million to fight against unionization and only 55% of eligible workers voted (3215 of 5,800). In counting so far, AMZN is winning 1,100 votes to 463, with 500 votes not declared because AMZN has challenged the legitimacy of those votes. The counting process is very slow because each vote is counted by the National Labor Relations Board and can be challenged for everything from whether the person is still employed, if the form was filled correctly, to whether the signature matches company records. In other business news, GM and F both announced more production cuts overnight as the global chip shortage continues to bite manufacturing industries. F says the shortages are likely to cost the company $1.5-$2 billion this year. GM echoed the sentiment, saying their earnings should be off about the same amount due to lost sales.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,717,404 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 573,856. The number of new cases has ticked higher again to an average of 66,677 new cases per day. However, new deaths are trending down again, now at 775 per day. CA has found 5 more cases of the so-called “double mutant” variant of the virus. This extremely contagious strain is the cause for the recent 55% spike in one province of India (where Mumbai Is located). This strain is less susceptible to antibodies (as generated by previously having the virus or from having a vaccine). So, these cases are a major concern in the San Francisco bay area where the infections have been found. FL also filed a lawsuit against the CDC trying to force the resumption of cruises.

Globally, the numbers rose to 134,641,198 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,917,995 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 17,000 per day increase) and are now at 618,021 per day. Mortality, which lags, held roughly steady at 10,376 new deaths per day. The EU’s vaccine chief told reporters on Thursday that the EU is on track to achieve herd immunity (70% of the population vaccinated) by mid-July. However, Germany is edging closer to another lockdown as the Chancellor and most state Premiers have called for another one. In Asia, India had another record number of new cases. Japan also exceeded its self-set warning level and has not declared a fourth wave, but PM Suga did say extra precautions are warranted as the country continues to prepare to host the Olympics in late July.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red. Shenzhen (-1.26%) and Hong Kong (-1.07%) led the losses with only Malaysia (+0.61%) and Thailand (+0.48%) managing to stay in the green. In Europe, markets are mixed on very modest moves so far today. The FTSE (-0.11%), DAX (+0.06%), and CAC (+0.25%) are typical of the continent at midday. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also mixed and flat. The DIA is implying a +0.22% open, the SPY implying a +0.14% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.04% open. Bond yields did rise overnight (currently 1.664%) and Oil is flat.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday is limited to Mar. PPI (8:30 am). However, the preliminary result (lawsuits are likely to follow) of the AMZN union vote is also likely to be announced. The only major earnings report on the day is JKS before the open.

The bulls took control again Thursday, especially in the tech-heavy QQQ. However, both the QQQ and DIA have some resistance close overhead. With earnings season starting again next week and the weekend ahead, it is not hard to imagine that markets might drift sideways today. However, the trend is clearly bullish and the big concern (inflation causing Fed action) seems to have been addressed again by Fed voters themselves.

So, don’t predict or chase trades you have missed. Respect support and resistance as well as the trend. As always, keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and maintain your discipline. Remember that successful traders are the ones that keep hitting singles and doubles. They are not the traders that are looking to hit a grand slam every time at-bat. So, take your profits when trade goals are met, stay on the right side of the market trend. Be sure to follow your trading rules, because consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Friday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Jobless Claims and Powell Speaking

April 8, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets were essentially flat on the day as traders continue to rest after the recent strong run. All 3 major indices printed indecisive white candles (Doji or Spinning Top). On the day SPY was up 0.12%, DIA up 0.01%, and QQQ up 0.24%. The VXX fell to 10.49 and T2122 dropped just below the overbought territory at 76.29. The 10-year bond yield climbed to 1.679% and Oil (WTI) fell half a percent to $59.50/barrel.

Related to the infrastructure bill, Republicans continue to fight anything beyond roads, bridges, and railways being called infrastructure (perhaps oddly, missing was the electricity grid, water systems, and telecom/Internet). Meanwhile, some Democrats are saying they are against raising the corporate tax as far as 28%. The President said Wednesday he isn’t married to 28% and is open to negotiation. Meanwhile, the Treasury Dept. (and Sec. Yellen) says the tax policy that is part of this Infrastructure bill would repatriate $2 trillion in corporate profits currently being hidden abroad. In a related story, Sec. Yellen told the press she believes that the vast majority of developed nations (including the G20) will go along with the idea of a “global minimum corporate tax” that she has proposed. Separately, the Wharton school has said the infrastructure plan (as proposed, not as finalized) would have little if any impact on business investments.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,637,243 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 572,849. The number of new cases has ticked higher again to an average of 66,271 new cases per day. However, new deaths are trending down again, now at 771 per day. The CDC (and Dr. Fauci, NIH) announced that more and more new cases and hospitalizations are coming from younger demographics and that the main cause appears to be the increase in travel, reduction of restrictions, and the public abandonment of mitigation (masking).

Globally, the numbers rose to 133,830,978 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,904,226 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases are rising again and are now at 600,875 per day. Mortality, which lags, held roughly steady at 10,074 new deaths per day. The Canadian province of Ontario went into lockdown for at least the next 4 weeks as cases and hospitalizations have spiked. In the middle-east, Iran has seen the average number of new cases double in the last week. In Asia, India reported another record number of new cases today. And related to vaccines, several countries announced new restrictions or new pauses in the use of the AZN vaccine, including Australia, Spain, Belgium, and even the UK.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green on modest moves. Hong Kong (+1.16%), Australia (+1.02%), and New Zealand (+1.16%) were the biggest winners by far on the day. Only Japan (-0.07%) and Singapore (-0.29%) were in the red. The other exchanges all saw modest moves to the upside. In Europe, a similar story is taking shape as of midday. Denmark (+1.46%) is a dramatic outlier, but the FTSE (+0.38%), DAX (-0.12%), and CAC (+0.42%) are much more typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are mixed. The DIA is implying a flat (unchanged) open, the SPY implying a +0.34% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.90% gap higher.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and Fed Chair Powell speaks at noon. Major earnings reports on the day include CAG and STZ before the open. Then after the close LEVI reports.

Bond yields are down very slightly and Oil is off about 1% overnight. So, the inflation story is in check at least prior to the Jobless Claims number (which is expected to be down significantly). With markets having rested the last couple of days and extension having been relieved to some extent, the bulls may have the wind at their back again today. Regardless, do not fight the tide whether that means picking a reversal or not following the trend.

As always, keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can. Stick with your discipline. Successful traders over the long run are the ones that keep hitting singles and doubles. They are not the traders that are looking to hit a grand slam every time at-bat. So, take your profits when trade goals are met, stay on the right side of the market trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Be sure to follow your trading rules, because consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ALLY, DRI, ORCL, MRVL, INTC, LB. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Not Much News Follows Slow Tuesday

April 7, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat on Tuesday and then ground sideways the rest of the day with a slight bearish direction. This left all 3 major indices in Doji-type candles. On the day the SPY lost 0.06%, DIA lost 0.25%, and QQQ lost 0.07%. The VXX was flat at 10.77 and T2122 also held ground deep in the overbought territory at 95.57. 10-year bond yields fell significantly to 1.658% during the day and Oil (WTI) gained almost 1.5% to $59.46/barrel.

After hours, LUV called back pilots to prepare for what they expect to be a very busy summer travel schedule. AMZN CEO Jeff Bezos also released a statement saying that he supports a bold infrastructure investment and the raising of the corporate tax rate. However, he stopped short of endorsing President Biden’s specific infrastructure plan or Biden’s proposed corporate tax hike to pay for the plan. (It is worth noting that AMZN paid zero in federal income taxes for 2 years and then only paid $162 million last year on $386 billion in revenue…four one-hundredths of a single percent.)

Bloomberg reported that commodity shipping rates have jumped over 50% so far this year. This includes shipping for various grains, steel, coal, and other dry goods. As of a couple weeks ago, prices were nearing the all-time highs that preceded the pandemic crash in March of 2020. In other strong economic news, JPM Chair Dimon issued a shareholder letter this morning that said he expects strong economic growth to easily continue into 2023. He also said that while stock valuations are quite high, the multi-year boom we are entering may justify those stock prices.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,560,438 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 570,260. The number of new cases has ticked higher again to an average of 65,582 new cases per day. However, new deaths are trending down again, now at 820 per day. The CDC announced that at least 80% of teachers, school staff, and childcare workers have now gotten at least one dose of vaccine. This came the same day the White House announced that 150 million vaccine doses have been dispensed in the first 75 days of the administration. In addition, as mentioned yesterday, President Biden has moved the deadline forward by two weeks, requiring states to offer vaccine to all US adults by April 19.

Globally, the numbers rose to 133,136,691 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,889,245 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 599,421 per day. Mortality, which lags, held roughly steady at 9,988 new deaths per day. In South America, Brazil recorded its deadliest day of the pandemic on Tuesday, with 4,195 deaths. Argentina also recorded the highest number of new cases since the pandemic started. Elsewhere, there is better news as Sough Korea approved the JNJ vaccine, Russia gave Pakistan 150,000 doses of the Sputnik V vaccine, and the first patients in the UK have started to receive the newly approved MRNA vaccine.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again. Thailand (-1.46%), Hong Kong (-0.91%), and Shenzhen (-0.74%) were the major losers on the day. Meanwhile, Malaysia (+1.37%), India (+0.92%), and New Zealand (+0.70%) led gainers. The rest of the region put in modest moves in either direction. In Europe, we see a similar picture at this point in the day, again on modest moves. The FTSE (+0.80%) is an outlier to the upside, with the DAX (-0.05%) and CAC (+0.10%) being much more typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.03% open, the SPY implying a +0.04% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.03% open at this hour.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to Imports / Exports and Fed. Trade Balance (both at 8am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 pm). Major earnings reports are limited to LW, MSM, RPM, and SCHN before the open. There are no major reports scheduled after the close.

Overnight trading was mixed and flat following Tuesday (which was the least volatile day so far this year). Bond yield rose slightly (10-year up to 1.66%) and Oil gained a percent again overnight, implying slightly more inflation expectation. However, there was no major move that would signal strength from the bulls or bears. It may just be that Mr. Market needs to catch his breath after running “too far too fast.” Or maybe traders are just waiting for the next reason to run. Regardless, we remain extended, but in a strong bullish trend. So, keep an eye on volatility and don’t fight the tide.

As always, keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can. Stick to your trading rules, and maintain that discipline. Traders that are successful in the long run do it by continually hitting singles and doubles…not by looking to hit a grand slam every time at-bat. So, take your profits when trade goals are met, stay on the right side of the market trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Be sure to follow your trading rules, because consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Extended Market, European Joy Lead Day

April 6, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up about three-quarters of a percent on Monday as Mr. Market caught up for having missed the ability to trade after Friday’s blowout Jobs Report. All 3 major indices then saw some morning follow-through and a sideways grind all afternoon, leaving us with gap-up strong, white bullish candles. On the day, both the DIA and SPY closed at new all-time high closes and the QQQ is back within 1.5% of its own all-time high close. For the session, SPY closed +1.40%, DIA closed up 1.12%, and QQQ closed up 2.00%. The VXX fell again to 10.76 and T2122 drove deeper into overbought territory at 96.28. 10-year bond yields were flat at 1.713% and Oil (WTI) fell sharply (almost 4.5%) to $58.73/barrel.

During the day, the US Supreme court ruled in favor of GOOG in a decade-old, multi-billion-dollar copyright infringement case brought by ORCL. Perhaps unrelated, GOOG also announced Monday they will stop using ORCL enterprise planning software and migrate to competing products from ORCL’s bitter rival SAP. In other business news, after-hours US carmakers demanded that part of the infrastructure plan be money set aside for production of chips for use in vehicle production. They are saying the global chip shortage has caused a 1.3 million chip shortage for US car and light-truck production. Finally, Credit Suisse has fired their heads of Investment Banking and of Risk Management after announcing the company took a $4.7 billion loss from the implosion of US hedge Fund Archegos Capital.

China has asked bankers in that country to reduce lending for the remainder of 2021. While inflation has not been mentioned, the purported reason for the “request” is that a surge in lending the first 2 months of the year is leading to “risk bubbles” and the government is worried about systemic issues caused by those bubbles. In related news, overnight Treasury Bond yields dipped back below 1.70% ahead of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Opening survey for February.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,496,976 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 569,282. The number of new cases has ticked higher again to an average of 65,554 new cases per day. However, new deaths are trending down again, now at 808 per day. The CDC reported Monday that over 40% of US adults and 75% of seniors have now received at least one dose of vaccine. The White House confirmed we will meet their goal of having enough vaccine for every American by the end of May. In fact, the President is set to announce he is moving up his deadline to have every American adult eligible for vaccine by 2 weeks (to April 19).

Globally, the numbers rose to 132,507,375 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,876,052 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 591,358 per day. Mortality, which lags, held roughly steady at 9,814 new deaths per day. The UK has announced it will ease covid restrictions per schedule starting April 12. In Asia, India has imposed curfews in the capitol region of Delhi amid another rise in cases. China has also instituted mass testing near the Myanmar border after 17 new cases (40-90 new cases since March 29) after a mass influx of refugees from the post-coup crackdown by the military junta. Japan is also strengthening restrictions in 3 of its prefectures as cases rise.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again. Japan (-1.30%) paced the losses while Hong Kong (+1.97%) and Taiwan (+1.02%) led the gainers. In Europe, with the lone exception of Russia, markets are strongly green across the board. The FTSE (+1.19%), DAX (+1.15%), and CAC (+0.60%) are typical of the rest of the continent with only Russia (-0.59%) in the red at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modestly red open. The DIA is implying a -0.09% open, the SPY implying a -0.18% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.25% open at this point.

The only major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is the Feb. JOLTS report (10 am). The only major earnings reports scheduled for the day is PAYX before the open.

Overnight markets are giving us a mixed message. Asia is spooked by new virus surges and China telling banks to pull back on lending to avoid systemic risk, but Europe is still in love with the recovery story as signaled by last Friday’s blowout Jobs number in the US. Bond yields ticked lower, which has been a signal of less inflation fear recently. Yet, the fear we have run “too far too fast” remains as markets are extended after Monday’s big post-holiday sugar high. So, beware of volatility as both the bulls and bears have something to hang their hats on today.

Yes, the trend is strongly bullish. However, as extended as we are, this is one of those times where the advice we hammer repeatedly starts to make some sense. Keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline. You don’t succeed by looking to hit that grand-slam homerun. You succeed by continually hitting singles and doubles in the long run. So, take your profits when trade goals are met, stay on the right side of the market trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Be sure to follow your trading rules, because consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GBTC, FFIV, ANF, TPR, GM, F, MVIS, KSS, IBM, RIOT, UAA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Friday’s Jobs Report Driving in Premarket

April 5, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up Thursday, in particular the QQQ which gapped-up 1.3% following the overnight rollout of President Biden’s infrastructure plan and a higher-than-expected Weekly Jobless Claims number. After the open, all three major indices ground sideways the rest of the day. This ended in a ally to the highs the last half-hour of the day. This left us with a potential Hanging Man candle in the DIA and strong white bullish candles in the SPY and QQQ. On the day, DIA gained 0.38%, SPY gained to 1.08% (new all-time high), and QQQ gained 1.70%. The VXX lost another 3% to 11.05 and T2122 spiked back up deep into the overbought territory at 93.39. 10-year bond yield fell slightly (after again rising over night) to 1.714% and Oil (WTI) rose 3.5% to $61.24/barrel.

On Friday the Nonfarm Payrolls report for March came in 300,000 jobs better than was expected (at +916,000) as unemployment fell to 6%. January and February totals were also revised up by 150,000. In addition, CNBC also reported than their informal survey of economists are expecting spectacular growth in Q2 (they estimate a 10% average GDP growth). This may be great news for stock prices in Q2, but could also lead to inflation faster than has been expected…which may lead to Fed tightening faster than they have repeatedly claimed. So, as usual, there are arguments on either side of the market.

Over the weekend, TSLA announced it shipped 184,000 vehicles in Q1 while producing 180,000. All cars produced were Model 3 sedans or Model Y SUVs as production of Models S and X stopped. For reference, GM shipped 642,250, F shipped 521,350, and Stellantis (Dodge/Jeep) shipped 469,650 during the quarter. In other news, big Tech and social media companies are facing another PR nightmare as Sunday reports came out that details from about 500 million FB accounts have been found on the internet available to hackers. In another nightmare for a business, after denying it at first, AMZN admitted that their delivery and warehouse workers have been forced to urinate in bottles, because making a trip to a restroom would hurt their performance standards rating and impact their pay. In the admission, AMZN said this is a long-standing and industry-wide issue.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall plateau. The totals have risen to 31,420,331 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 568,777. The number of new cases has ticked higher again to an average of 63,471 new cases per day. However, new deaths are trending down again, now at 833 per day. On Friday, the CDC said travel for fully-vaccinated and masked people is low risk. The Hospitality, Travel, and Tourism industries cheered loudly at this announcement. On Saturday, the CDC said a record 4.1 million vaccinations were administered and the 7-day average is now over 3 million/day.

Globally, the numbers rose to 131,993,083 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,867,681 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 585,951 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 9,822 new deaths per day. In South America, Chile has registered a record number of new cases each of the last several days. Brazil continues to see record numbers of covid deaths, but the ICU bed occupancy has started to lessen slightly (still over 90%) at least in Rio de Janeiro. In Europe, the UK has said the public can return to sporting events later in April and they will create a “fully vaccinated” travel passport. In less good news, the UK announced it has found 30 cases of blood clots (25 more than had previously been made public) after AZN vaccinations, which has renewed the debate over AZN vaccine safety in the UK and Europe.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Hong Kong (+1.97%) and Shenzhen (+1.02%) paced the gainers while India (-1.54%) and Thailand (-1.04%) led the losses. In Europe, Russia (-0.92%) is the only exception to green across the board (on modest moves) so far Monday. The FTSE (+0.35%), DAX (+0.66%), and CAC (0.59%) are typical of the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a solid green open after Friday’s blowout jobs report. The DIA is implying a +0.71% open, the SPY implying a +0.58% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.44% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to Mar. Service PMI (9:45 am), Feb. Factory Orders and ISM Service PMI (both at 10 am). There are no major reports scheduled for the day.

Overnight markets seem to be pointing higher after huge gains in the Jobs Report delivered on Friday when the market was closed. Bond yields also ticked higher overnight, likely also reacting to the Jobs report and its implied potential for inflation. So, beware of volatility as both the bulls and bears have something to hang their hats on today.

With that said, the trend remains strongly bullish in the short and longer terms. So, follow the market trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Be sure to follow your trading rules, because consistency is the key to long-term trading success. Keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CVX, WTI, GUSH, LUV, DVN, FANG, MRO, BKD, EOG, CSCO, TGT, ALLY, ANF, TRQ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Infrastructure Plan and Unemployment

April 1, 2021 by Ed Carter

The large caps gapped slightly higher while the QQQ gapped up about half a percent. The large-caps then ground sideways the rest of the day while the QQQ saw some follow-through before starting its sideways grind at 11am. All three backed off the highs at the end of the day. This left all three with upper wicks. On the day, SPY gained 0.41%, DIA lost 0.19%, and QQQ gained 1.53%. The VXX fell again to 11.40 and T2122 roe a bit but remains in the mid-range at 60.29. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.739% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 2% to $59.39.

After the close, President Biden announced his $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan. It calls for $621 billion in transport infrastructure, $580 billion into manufacturing (R&D and job training), $300 billion for drinking water infrastructure, $300 billion into affordable housing construction, and $400 billion for care of elderly/disabled Americans. The primary way it proposes paying for the plan is the reversion of the Corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% (it was 35% through 2017).

In other government news, after hours, Treasury Sec. Yellen has restarted the hedge fund regulatory panel as part of an overhaul of financial regulation systems. Also included in the oversight mandate of this panel will be the Treasury bond, Mutual Fund, and Money Market segments of Wall Street. This came as the SEC also announced it has opened a probe into the Archegos fund that caused the massive block trades Friday-Tuesday due to margin call on that fund’s levered positions.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 31,166,344 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 565,256. The number of new cases has jumped higher again to an average of 65,308 new cases per day. However, new deaths are mostly flat at 932 per day. In vaccine news, a trial of the MRNA vaccine booster shot aimed at the South African variant is now underway. In addition, PFE announced that the ongoing Phase 3 trial has shown its vaccine protection lasts at least 6 months (better than the 90-day estimate the company originally offered) and also appears to be 91% effective against the South African variant. In other related news, GOOG also announced that it is speeding up reopening offices and will put limits on future remote work. DAL also told reporters that it is eliminating empty middle seats due to a surge in air travel demand.

Globally, the numbers rose to 129,606,380 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,830,726 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases are rising again (about 10,000 per day) and are now at 575,440 per day. Mortality, which lags, also ticked up, now at 10,041 new deaths per day. French President Macron called for another national lockdown as cases have spikes. Meanwhile Austria is signing a deal to buy 1 million doses of the Russian Sputnik vaccine amid AZN deadline misses and general vaccine shortages.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board, with the lone exception of New Zealand (-0.58%). Hong Kong (+1.97%), Shenzhen (+1.46%), and India (+1.20%) led the gainers, but the surge was about two-thirds of a percent on average. In Europe, we see green all the way across the board so far today. Some of the smaller exchanges are running faster, but the FTSE (+0.49%), DAX (+0.35%), and CAC (+0.25%) are fairly typical of the continent at this hour. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointing to a green, if uneven, open. The DIA (+0.02%) is flat, while the SPY is implying a +0.28% open and the QQQ is implying a +0.95% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 am), Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), and ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am). Major earnings reports for the day are limited to KMX before the open. There are no major reports after the close.

Bond rates came down significantly overnight but remain above 1.71%. With only Weekly Jobless Claims to come as a different driver, the market action today may be a referendum on the specifics of the President’s proposed infrastructure plan or the tax scheme that is proposed to pay for that investment. So, beware of volatility.

As we always say, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep taking trade goals (profits) off the table when you can, stick to your rules, and maintain that discipline. Be sure to follow your trading rules, follow the market trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. And if you don’t have an edge (like being on the right side of a trend), then think twice before trading.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No tickers today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching