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Data-driven Confusion

May 2, 2019 by Doug Campbell

With yesterday’s close leaving behind bearish engulfing candles and one would expect price to follow-through lower this morning but amidst such data-driven confusion futures are currently suggesting a modestly bullish open. That’s the nature of earnings season. Anything is possible making it near to impossible for the swing trader or position trader to hold on to an edge and becomes much more like a casino.

With more than 400 companies reporting and several possible market-moving economic reports this morning we should expect the data-driven confusion to continue accompanied by its best friend volatility. Keep in mind, we have the big Employment Situation number before the bell on Friday so plan your risk accordingly and be very careful not to over-trade.

On the Calendar

Today will be the biggest day of the week on the earnings calendar with more than 400 companies reporting. Notable reports include, ATVI, WTR, ANET, AVP, BLL, CBS, CI, ED, WW, DISCA, DWDP, DNKN, EXPE, FRT, GILD, HBI, HLF, HFC, IEP, K, MELI, MNST, MUR, NRG, PCG, PLNT, PPL, RMAX, SHAK, DATA, UAA, X, W, & ZTS.

Action Plan

After some significant bearish price action in reaction to the Fed Chairs comments yesterday afternoon leaving behind bearish candle patterns I was expecting at least little follow-through down this morning. However, as I write this the futures are modestly bullish even though Asian markets closed mostly lower and the European markets are currently trading mostly lower. Perhaps its nothing more than high hopes for good results from the more than 400 earnings reports today.

It also makes me wonder if yesterday’s selling got enough traders short to engineer a short squeeze attempt trying to get that new record high in the Dow. In light of the price action we must also consider the possibility of a pop and drop pattern. Have I mentioned I hate earnings! With so much data tossed at the market the fact is anything is possible and swing traders have very little edge in this kind of environment. Stay focused on price action, remain flexible and guard yourself against over-trading.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

MDLZ 38%

May 1, 2019 by Rick Saddler

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Just Another FOMC Day

May 1, 2019 by Rick Saddler

A typical FOMC day is usually dreary until the Fed decisions come out in the early afternoon. Before the FED decision, everyone scramble for a position and changes their mind 2-3 times while sitting on the edge of their seat. Stay calm and have a slice of pie is what I plan to do. It really is pretty simple, if the Fed news is to risky think about cash or nearly cash. If you are comfortable with your positions and they have proper stops sit back and enjoy the pie. And never forget you don’t have to trade every day and never trade out of desperation. THE SPY CHART had a hard morning yesterday thanks to GOOG, but by the end of the day the SPY came back above our T-Line making it 23 days that price has closed above the T-Line, (what a nice run). The bears are always sitting on the edge waiting for a sign to pounce on the bull in a bullish trend, and we will also be alerted with price action and candlesticks formations. Good trading traders!

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FOMC Decision

May 1, 2019 by Doug Campbell

FOMC decision at 2 PM Eastern will weigh heavily on the mind of the market today. With another big day of earnings behind us and another one already underway this morning the futures are pointing to a bullish open. Both the SPY and the QQQ look as if they will open in new record territory and with the Dow gaping up this morning it is within easy striking distance of joining the blue sky club. The IWM continues to lag way behind the others as if the small caps were simply not invited to party.

With over 350 companies reporting today and a full economic calendar that includes an interest rate decision from the FOMC will the bullishness roll on or will the market take a more of a typical wait and see attitude in the price action today? With so much data to digest anything is possible so plan your risk carefully working to hold on to your edge and discipline to follow your rules despite all the swirling drama of the day.

On the Calendar

Another big day on the Earnings Calendar today with more than 350 companies reporting today. Some of the notables reports today include, ALL, AMCX, AWK, NLY, APA, CAR, BP, CAKE, CLX, CREE, CVS, EPD, EQIX, EL, FIT, GCI, GRMN, HCP, HLT, HST, HUM, H, MOR, MET, TAP, PSA, QCOM, O, RCL, SO, SQ, VVV, WMB, AUY, YUM & ZNGA.

Action Plan

After a big wave of bullish earnings reports after the bell the futures are pointing to a positive open. The question is with more than 350 companies expected to report today and the FOMC Announcement at 2 PM Eastern with the bullishness grow or slip into a wait and see mode. As I write this the DIA looks to open in striking distance of new record highs joining its compadres the SPY and QQQ with only blue sky above.

The president is putting pressure on the FOMC not only to cut interest rates but begin a program of quantitative easing. Honestly, I don’t know how something like that could be justified but hey stranger things have happened. As of now the market is not expecting a change in interest rates but will look closely at their statement hoping to see no signs of growing hawkishness in the wording.

Trade wisely,

Doug

US & China resume negotiations

April 30, 2019 by Doug Campbell

As US/China resume negotiations, China’s manufacturing numbers come in less than expected once again raising concerns about economic growth. Asian markets closed mostly lower overnight and European markets are mostly red this morning as well. Here in the US, both the SPT and the QQQ closed at new record highs ignoring global concerns as earnings continue to inspire the bulls higher.

We have nearly 350 companies reporting today topped with the AAPL report coming in after the bell. We also have five potential market-moving economic reports on the calendar as well as the beginning of the 2-day FOMC meeting filling the markets plate for the day. Prepare for volatility but don’t be too surprised if price action becomes light and choppy as we wait for the FOMC announcement Wednesday afternoon. I think we should expect challenging price action the rest of the week where it will be very difficult to swing trade and maintain an edge. Quick and experienced day-traders will likely have the upper hand.

On the Calendar

We have a big day on the Earnings Calendar today with nearly 350 companies reporting. Some of the notable reports are, AAPL, FLWS, AOS, AMD, AKAM, ARNC, ARCC, APRN, EAT, CHTR, CB, COP, GLW, CMI, DENN, ECL, LLY, FEYE, GE, GM, GEO, GRPN, HCA, LL, MA, MCD, MRK, MDLZ, OKE, PFE, PSX, STX, SHOP, SPG, STAG, TWLO, WELL & WH.

Action Plan

Today begins the FOMC 2-day meeting and we have a very big day of earnings reports with AAPL in focus after the bell. GE has already reported better than expected this morning and gapping the stock 7% higher in the pre-market. Commonly the price action is light and choppy ahead of an FOMC announcement but with such big morning of earnings we should prepare for the likelihood volatility.

Overnight Asian markets struggled due to manufacturing numbers coming in less than expected to close their major indexes mostly lower. Europe indexes are flat and mostly lower this morning as well in reaction to the Chian data and selloff in the miners. Consequently, US futures are mixed and pensive as earnings roll-out. Anything is possible by the time the market opens so stay on your toes, focus on price and remain flexible. Finding and holding on to an edge in the kind of environment will be very challenging so plan your risk accordingly.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bullish T-Line Run

April 30, 2019 by Rick Saddler

GOOG was spanked last night at the earnings party, and the FNGU has dropped $2.00 in the aftermarket. I suspect today will a nail-biting day for some and others dance in the street. The difference is how the trade plans, quality of charts and allotment size that makes the difference. Either way, the SPY closed good, now 22 days in a Bullish T-Line Run. Yesterday’s close was in the form of a small-bodied candle and a small wick/shadow on top so we could see a little profit taking in the market today. Above $291.35 I will view a bullish and below not so much. Above $291.35 keep price above the 4/17 bearish engulf candle that the 4/23 candle broke out of. We close out our BAC trade for a cool 30%; we entered the trade because we liked the chart after the LTA Scann alerted us a 3×8 Trap Scan and it was a T-Band Breakout.

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Drinking from a fire-hose of data.

April 29, 2019 by Doug Campbell

Take a deep breath and be prepared for volatility this week as the market is forced to drink for a fire-hose of data. With more than 1300 companies reporting and an economic calendar full of potential market-moving reports including the FOMC Announcement on Wednesday and the Employment Situation number on Friday. Then to keep in interesting let’s raise the hope of a US/China in the news first thing Monday morning.

With so much fo the market to try and digest traders should be prepared for volatile price action particularly on Wednesday afternoon if the FOMC decides to become a bit more hawkish in light of the stronger than expected US economic numbers. The DIA, SPY and QQQ continue to maintain strong uptrends but ahead of all this data it’s impossible to know how the market will react. Plan your risk carefully and be prepared for the possibility of challenging price action as the market gulps down this fire-hose of data.

On the Calendar

We kick off a big week of earings with nearly 160 companies reporting today. Some of the notables today, AKS, AMX CYOU, SNP, CHA, CTB, EPR, LEG, GOOGL, L, MGM, NUSA, NPXI, PTR, THC, RIG, WDC & YUMC.

Action Plan

If you were planning a set of market conditions to create potential volatility and make it very very challenging to trade you would be hard-pressed to top the conditions set before us this week! Not only do we have a massive week of earnings reports we also have an earnings calendar heavy laden with market-moving reports. Toss in the FOMC where the strong economic numbers that could have the Fed speaking a bit more hawkish and for good measure raise the hopefulness of US/China trade deal in the news.

Asian markets closed mostly lower overnight with Japan closed for a 10-day holiday. European markets are slightly lower across the board this morning as it reacts to weak euro-zone data once again raising fears of a slowing global economy. As I write this US Futures are mixed and mostly lower as we wait for fresh earnings reports and the Personal Income and Outlay report at 8:30 AM Eastern. The trends in the DIA, SPT and QQQ remain strong but be prepared for considerable volatility this week with the possibility of large morning gaps and intra-day reversals as the market drinks from a fire-hose of data.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Crazy Wall of Worry

April 29, 2019 by Rick Saddler

The Wall of Worry can make for crazy trading days and days of boredom as we have seen in the past few weeks. Friday was the 21^st day the SPY has closed over the T-Line which suggest the market is happy with last weeks round of earnings. Today is the start of another full week of earnings and the sane can be applied. Each day we will have earnings and each day we will monitor price action and where it is in relationship to the T-Line. If the price closes below the T-Line but closes in the band, consolidation, and opportunity maybe around the corner. Closing below the bands altogether puts the sellers in the driver seat, and we may have to alter our direction. Let’s keep watch on the VIX- chart; price is curtly flirting with the 200-SMA on the 15-min chart, And the 200-SMA is tilted upwards because of the big move the VIX- did a few bars back.

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Challenge

April 26, 2019 by Doug Campbell

We have had a very busy week of earnings with mostly encouraging results but also some manor disappointments to challenge traders. However, this week pales in comparison to the challenges we face next week with nearly 1300 companies reporting and an economic calendar brimming with market-moving reports including the FOMC meeting. It might be wise to consider that as you plan your risk into the weekend.

Asian markets closed mostly lower overnight with European markets trading mixed an nearly flat. As a result, US futures have mixed results ahead of the GDP report at 8:30 AM Eastern that could well set the tone for the day. Worries of an economic slowdown could be quelled with a strong GDP number or cemented if the number comes in weak. Let’s buckle up hoping for the best but prepared for the worst keeping mind the challenge traders face next week mean we will have to be focused and at the top of our game.

On the Calendar

On the Earnings Calendar we have a little break with only 88 companies reporting but with about 1300 companies reporting next week we must stay focused on reporting dates. Among the notable reports today are, AZN, AN, BLMN, CVX, CL, DB, XOM, BEN, GT, SNY & WY.

Action Plan

Although we have a slightly lighter day on the earnings calendar we will still have to say on our toes with several notable reports. The market will also have to digest the GDP report scheduled to release at 8:30 AM Eastern this morning. If the GDP happens to show growth as many analysts are suggesting it could be just the catalyst needed for the bulls to break through the resistance highs on the SPY. Of course a decline in the number could cement the worries of an economic slow down bringing out the bears. Stay on your toes!

Thought the sharp pullback in the DIA yesterday was disappointing it managed to hold just above an important support level. The SPY and QQQ remain in upward trends and continue to look technically strong with the QQQ leading the indexes. As we move quickly toward the weekend remember to take some profits and carefully consider the risk you carry into the weekend because next week is a massive week of earnings and economic news including the FOMC. I wish you all a great weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Buckle Up It’s Friday

April 26, 2019 by Rick Saddler

The SPY closed with a Doji yesterday above the T-Line and the T-Line Bands in a bullish trend. Yesterday produced a pretty good battler between the buyers and sellers. The DIA’s made it down to the lower band support line and close up near the mid support band line. The VIX-X chart also played in yesterdays fun popping up to $13.29 before closing at $13.25. The VIX-X closed over the T-Bands with higher lows and a little bottom construction. I doubt the VIX-X is finished with it’s fun in the playground. There is a bit of fear starting to brew, and the VIX-X chart is a great place to watch it unfold. Note that if the Fear rises the SPY may fall below the T-Line and test the lower T-Band. Buckle up; it’s Friday.

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