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Pins and Needles

December 9, 2019 by Doug Campbell

After a big Friday rally and at the cusp of new record highs, the market this morning is tiptoeing on a bed of pin and needles. Will there or won’t there be a Phase 1 trade deal? What will the President decide about the Dec. 15^th tariff increase? The market is waiting for answers to these questions and the decision is likely to have substantial impacts on overall market sentiment. Tensions between the countries flared once again with China accusing the US of violations of international law after the House passed a bill citing human rights violations for their use of detention camps.

Overnight, Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher even after reporting declines in exports for November. European markets are modestly lower across the board this morning and US Futures chop around the flat-line with a slightly bearish lean. With such a big decision pending, plan your risk carefully, and plan for the possibility of substantial moves depending on the answer we receive!

On the Calendar

On the Earnings Calendar, we have 27 companies fessing up to their quarterly results. Among the notable earnings are CASY, CHWY, SFIX, TOL, & MTN.

Action Plan

What, no premarket pump, no 5 AM news citing unnamed sources to start the day? Well, that’s a change that we will have to keep a close eye on as we move toward the December 15^th tariff deadline. Though the Director of the National Economic Council Larry Kudlow said on Friday that the Phase 1 trade deal was getting closer to completion, China appears to be very unhappy this morning. Last week the House passed a bill chastising China for its use of detention camps. During the night, China claims the bill violates international law flaring tensions between the two countries once again. The President’s decision could be critical for the market direction this week. Until then, we wait on pins and needles!

Technically speaking, the bullish trend is still in tack, but after a 4-day recovery rally of more than 675 Dow points, perhaps a little rest is just what the doctor ordered. The SPY came very close to breaking to new record highs on Friday’s strong rally. However, close also means that the price resistance above did its job of holding the line as we wait on an important tariff decision. What happens next could be some big moves either up or down, depending on the decision. Remain flexible and plan your risk accordingly.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Lull before the Coaster Ride?

December 9, 2019 by Ed Carter

The one-two punch of hope for a trade deal with China and blow-out Jobs data caused a huge gap-up and push Friday morning. However, after 12 pm the grind was on and we treaded water the rest of the day. The SPY ended up 0.91%, the DIA up 1.20% and QQQ up 1.07%. This placed us below, but close to all-time highs again. At the same time, T2122 has risen into the over-bought area at 91.28. The bulls clearly have taken control once again.

Related to the Trade War with China, Bloomberg reported Sunday that “sources” on the Chinese side expect a deal prior to the Dec. 15 deadline…thus forestalling new tariffs. They expect this deal to include a significant rollback of existing tariffs. On the US side, Larry Kudlow said again this weekend that a phase one deal is very close (as it has been since it was “done” two months ago). His main point was that if a deal is done it will President Trump’s decision. (After all, it’s not a deal or its terms that matter. The important thing is who gets credit.)

Potentially complicating a deal is continued unrest in Hong Kong. The largest demonstration in six months took place Sunday. Police estimate 200,000 protestors while organizers put the number closer to 1 million. In either case, it was a “relatively peaceful” demonstration with only sporadic petrol bombs thrown and the only arrests coming prior to the event as a couple dozen organizers were snatched up shortly before the protest.

Monday has no major economic news or earnings reports. However, this may be a roller-coaster week with another Fed meeting (no moves expected), the election in the UK, an ECB rate decision, and more twists in the trade deal saga likely prior to Sunday’s tariff increase deadline.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly in the green. In Europe, the major markets are also mixed, but mostly red at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to an open slightly on the downside of flat from Friday’s close.

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With no expected news or earnings today and some major events planned for later in the week (or weekend), today may be a rest day. On the other hand, the bulls can smell those all-time highs again and nothing has changed since Friday’s dramatic run. So, they will be wont to follow through. Either way, we need to trade the chart we get. Continue to take profits, move stops, plan your trades, and trade your plans.

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. CC, HP, DVN, EOG, CXO, CPRI, DXC, FMC, KO. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Look at the Week Ahead

December 9, 2019 by Ed Carter

All yes on the Employment Situation.

December 6, 2019 by Doug Campbell

The two days of light choppy price action is likely to get a shot of volatility this morning with the release of the Employment Situation number at 8:30 AM. Although the ADP number showed a sharp decline, it will be interesting to see if that will manifest in the government number. The bulls seem to suggest the number will be positive as the once again pump up the early morning futures. As we head into the weekend facing a tariff increase on the 15^th, I would not be too surprised to see some profit-taking.

Asian markets closed the week on a bullish tone with modest gains across the board. European markets are moving higher this morning green across the board. US Futures also point to bullish gains at the open that could easily expand the gap if the Employment number is positive or diminish if the number happens to be disappointing. Plan you risk into the weekend carefully as the political football of US/China trade continues to be kicked around in the news.

On the Calendar

On the Friday Earnings Calendar, we have a relatively quiet day with only 15 companies reporting. Notable earnings include BIG and GCO.

Action Plan

Another day of chop after attempting a pre-market pump, traders took a wait and see approach. This morning the focus will turn toward the Employment Situation number, and once again the futures are tiring to lift the market ahead of the number. The good news is we will likely get some price action today, but the question remains will retail traders get much of a chance, or will it most of the price action occur in the gap. One thing for sure is that the bulls are still in control with a relentless optimism amidst the political uncertainty.

After the morning rush, the market could once again turn its attention to the pending tariff increase scheduled on the 15th. It the bulls continue to ignore the potential risks pushing toward new record highs, or will there be some profit-taking into the weekend to avoid the risk? Only time will tell, but I, for one, will want to be more of a profit-taker rather than adding risk into the weekend.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Payrolls and China Trade

December 6, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Stocks gapped higher Thursday, mostly on the back of continued hope for a partial trade deal with China. However, it then spent the rest of the day wavering back down and then up again. Markets ended below the open, but still mildly higher. The SPY gained 0.18%, the DIA gained 0.11%, and QQQ gained 0.20%. However, keep in mind that even after the second straight day of gains, the indices remain below Monday’s candle. So, there is no clear trend this week.

The main economic news yesterday was the OPEC meeting. They are reportedly considering an additional 500,000 barrel/day production cut (bringing their total cuts to 1.7 million barrels). However, the Thursday session ended with several unresolved disagreements and no customary end-of-meeting press conference.

However, in a potential sign (or not) on the trade war front, Bloomberg is now also reporting that China has “started to process applications” by Chinese companies who are requesting tariff waivers to buy pork and soy beans from the US. Those who are claiming a trade deal is near are citing this as evidence. However, it is worth noting that there are still quotas on how many applications and how much underlying product can have these tariffs waived.

Friday major economic news includes Nov. Nonfarms Payroll and Nov. Unemployment Rate (both at 8:30 am). Expectations are for a large increase in Payrolls as 50,000 GM Strikers get added back into that number this month. Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am) is also on the docket. There are no major earnings reports Friday.

Overnight, Asian markets were all in the green. In Europe, the major markets are mostly green (except the FTSE) at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to a higher open, up 0.2% – 0.3% from Thursday’s close.

November Payrolls and trade war tea-leaf reading are likely to drive markets Friday. Just remember that we are heading into a weekend where we cannot react to tweets or news until Monday. So, it may be time to take some profits off the table or add some hedges. As traders, our job is to make consistent gains and reduce risk, the market is not a lottery ticket.

Sorry, but no Trade Ideas on Friday. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Lot’s of uncertainty.

December 5, 2019 by Doug Campbell

The big morning gap yesterday seemed to be met with a lot of uncertainty as to what happens next with the Phase 1 trade agreement. The bulls find very few buyers after the gap, and the bears could not inspire any sellers, so we lingered the rest of the day in a choppy sideways consolidation waiting for news to break the deadlock. Although the uncertainty remains, the futures market that had been flat most of the night found some inspiration somewhere to once again point to a bullish gap up open.

Asian markets closed positive across the board overnight as confusion over the trade continues. European markets are trading mixed but mostly higher this morning ahead of German economic data. US Futures point to a 100 point Dow gap ahead of the biggest day of earnings this week and some potential market-moving economic reports. The market is very news sensitive regarding trade, so remain flexible as sentiment could quickly shift as this political drama continues.

On the Calendar

On the Thursday Earnings Calendar, we have our biggest day of the week, with 51 companies reporting. Notable reports include ULTA, AOBC, CM, CLDR, DOCU, DG, DLTH, EXPR, GWRE, JILL, KR, MIK, SIG, PLCE, TIF, & ZM.

Action Plan

After the morning pop yesterday, the price action in the indexes stagnated in a sideways chop seemly uncertain as to what comes next. However, this morning, futures have found some inspiration even though the future of the Phase 1 trade deal remains uncertain. With the decline in petroleum reserves and the expectation that OPEC may make deeper cuts in oil production, there was some nice movement in the sector yesterday, helping to the overall market.

Today is the biggest day of earnings this week and could provide the source of inspiration for the bulls or the bears. However, in light of yesterday’s sharp decline in ADP numbers, the Friday Employment Situation report may create more consolidation after the morning rush while we wait. With the market sensitivity to any news on the trade deal and what that might mean for tariffs, traders will have to remain very flexible and prepared for quick price action surges or reversals. As the indexes move back up toward price resistance levels, remember to take some profits.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Conflicting Trade Deal News

December 5, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Stocks bounced back Wednesday (at least in terms of gapping) after the previous three down days. An anonymous Bloomberg report claimed progress was being made on how many tariff rollbacks would be part of phase one (partial) trade deal with China. This was enough for the bulls to gap again. However, there was no follow-through in the DIA and QQQ. Meanwhile, the SPY did manage a small bit of post-gap gain. The SPY ended up 0.62%, the DIA up 0.56% and the QQQ up 0.51%. However, it is worth noting that all three remain below their Monday close.

In trade news, we’ve gone from back-and-forth rumor/leaks/reports to the even more bizarre. This morning Bloomberg is reporting positive spin, saying China is in close contact with the US and the US negotiators are confident in a phase-one deal before Dec. 15. Meanwhile, CNBC and others are reporting China is giving little indication of progress and are remaining silent, except to reiterate a weeks-old statement that any phase-one deal must include tariff rollbacks…not just forestalling new tariffs. Regardless of which (or either) may be true, markets seem to be taking this as bullish news.

On the political news front, President Trump abruptly left the NATO meeting after turmoil between himself and other leaders (including being corrected by President Macron during a joint interview and being the butt of jokes between other leaders). Elsewhere, North Korea must have felt it wasn’t getting enough attention. So, it warned the US to prepare for a “Christmas gift” as its self-imposed deadline for progress on a nuclear deal approaches.

In economic news, ADP Nov. Private Payrolls were a big miss (coming in at 67,000 versus 145,000 expected). ISM Non-Mfg. PMI also was light (53.9 versus 54.5 expected). In addition, US Oil inventories were much, much higher than expected (2.5 times predicted). This last report comes as OPEC says it is considering deeper production cuts (although each OPEC member wants other countries to do the cutting).

Major economic news for Thursday includes Imports, Exports, and Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am), as well as Oct. Factory Orders (10 am). Major earning reports will include BF.B, COO, DG, KR, TIF, and ULTA.

Overnight, Asian markets were all in the green. The same is true in Europe, as all the burses (except the FTSE) are green at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to a gap higher of about 0.3% to half a percent.

So, we may be looking at another gap up this morning. Bulls have definitely looking for any reason to run the last couple months. However, there have been some warning signs (ie. Weak Mfg. data) and reasons to worry (blow-off top action?). That being the case, it would be wise not to chase too far either direction. Stick to your trading plan, keep locking-in profits, and move your stops. Our job is to make consistent gains and reduce risk. We’re not here to hit the lottery.

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. LB, CPRI, CXO, CBS, HAL, VIAB, MNST, KO, DXC. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Ridiculous Political Football

December 4, 2019 by Doug Campbell

The so-called Phase 1 trade deal has become a ridiculous political football creating a frustratingly news-driven market chopping up trader’s accounts. The President says maybe we wait until after the 2020 election, and the Dow drops more than 400 points. Bloomberg puts out a story citing “people familiar with the talks,” and suggests a deal is edging closer, and the Dow gaps up. All of the drams over a trade deal that we no one really knows what it does or does not include. Silly! The good news is that even though the short-term index trends broke yesterday the bulls found the energy to defend important price supports and longer-term trends. However, traders will have to remain very nimble in this emotional football continues to be kicked around.

Asian market closed seeing only red across the board overnight with European markets in reaction to the Bloomberg story reversed early losses and currently see green across the board. US Futures ahead of earnings and economic reports are also reacting sharply higher after the Bloomberg report with the Dow expected to gap up triple digits in reaction.

On the Calendar

On the hump day Earnings Calendar, we have 31 companies reporting their results. Notable reports include RH, WORK, HOME, CPB, FIVE, HRB, RY, TLYS, and VRNT.

Action Plan

Yesterday the President said it might be better to wait until after the 2020 election to make a deal with China. Commerce secretary came out echoing those comments and said they have not ruled out imposing tariffs on imported European Autos. Then at 5 AM this morning, Bloomberg News reported that the US and China were edging closer to a trade deal citing “people familiar with the talks.” The Futures quickly rallied from overnight losses on the report. I don’t know about you, but all this market manipulation around the so-called Phase 1 deal has become absolutely ridiculous.

Technically speaking, the short-term index trends broke yesterday, but the longer-term bullish trends remain intact as bulls defended key price action supports. Although yesterday’s price action was quite bearish, the pullback may, in fact, open the door to opportunity, so stay focused on price for clues. As a result of the Bloomberg report, the futures point to a gap up open in the Dow of more than 100 points ahead of earnings and economic reports. At 10 AM Eastern today, impeachment hearings will resume providing a little distraction and drama to the day.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

More Trade War Give & Take

December 4, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Stocks suffered large gaps lower across the board Tuesday as President Trump threatened new tariffs (France, Italy, Turkey, Austria) and acknowledged that there may be no China trade deal prior to the 2020 Election. Then mid-day the White House acknowledged that the President plans on moving ahead with more China tariffs on Dec. 15^th. However, after some follow-through in the morning, the rest of the day was still spent slowly grinding back to above flat after the gap down. Meanwhile, the VXX ended up 5.80%.

The SPY ended down 0.67%, the DIA down 0.97% and the QQQ down 0.78%. This made for the third straight down day (including the short session Friday). In and of itself, this is causing fear and talk of a repeat of 2018’s December selloff. However, to put this 3-day slide in perspective, we are only 1.5 to 2 percent off the all-time highs. So, we are not exactly seeing the end of the world yet.

After hours, the Co-CEOs of Alphabet (Larry Page and Sergey Brin) stepped down and appointed Google CEO Sundar Pichai as their replacement. Pichai is an Engineer by trade and more of an operations guy than Page or Brin. He was a driving force behind Google moving into non-search projects such as self-driving cars, artificial intelligence, rural internet, and others.

Despite the President’s Tweets and words yesterday, Bloomberg reports that the US and China are inching closer to an agreement on the number of tariff rollbacks that would be acceptable for a “phase one partial deal.” American sources say they expect the arrangement to be agreed prior to 12/15 (also forestalling another round of tit-for-tat tariffs). However, there is no word on when such an agreement would actually be signed. This story smacks of being another back and forth dueling false rumor around the China Trade War. Nonetheless, stocks are seeming to react very positively to the news.

Overnight, Asian markets were again in the red. In Europe, the major markets are all in the green at this point. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are all pointing to a half percent gap higher on the trade deal rumor.

In other trade news overnight, France and the EU have said they will retaliate over US-threatened tariffs on French goods. In addition, French President Macron, UK PM Johnson and Canadian PM Trudeau were caught on a “hot mic” joking about President Trump. (And we all know how well he can take a joke…so expect more on this front.)

With an apparent attempt at a rebound in the cards this morning, don’t start chasing. Keep in mind that to be successful, a trader must follow their rules…not get caught up in Fear of Missing Out. So, stick to your plan, lock-in profits along the way, move your stops, and maintain your discipline. Remember that your job is to be prepared, make consistent gains and reduce risk, not to hit home runs every once in a while.

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration. TTWO, DXC, ALXN, EA, ECL, WBA, ARMK, KLAC. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Getting Past Losses & Failure

December 3, 2019 by Ed Carter