The SP-500 and Nasdaq break through the clouds of uncertainty
printing new records while the Dow and Russell close just below key resistance
levels. As the bulls relentlessly power
forward, China’s Hubei province extends business closures to March 11 and the
Commerce Ministry warns of long-term impacts on labor-intensive industries such
as manufacturing and food production. Goldman
has now added a warning stating a “short-term correction is looking much more
probable.” We will soon find out what
the bulls think of that these warnings.
Asian markets closed flat to mostly lower overnight, and the
European markets are modestly lower or near the flatline this morning. US Futures ahead of the biggest day of
earnings reports this week point to a slightly lower open this morning. If all the warnings help the bear engage,
watch for an increase in price volatility.
However, I would not expect the bulls to give up easily as they work to
extend this amazing run.
On the Calendar
On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have our biggest day
this week, with more than 230 companies fessing up to results. Notable reports
include AAN, AKS, AEP, BTD, COG, CLF, ED, CVA, DPZ, DBX, EHTH, ENV, EQM, FSLR,
GLPI, GIL, HFC, HRL, I, LAMR, NCLH, PPC, RMAX, SIX, SO, SFM, TXRH, TRUE, OLED,
VTR, VIAC, & WIX.
Action Plan
With a mighty bullish push, the SP-500 and the Nasdaq put
new record highs in the books. Absolute Breadth
Index continues to decline, indicating fewer and fewer companies are supporting
the extended rally. Last night Goldman
chimed in on the virus economic concerns saying, the market has underestimated the
coronavirus impacts with the current stock prices. “While a sustained bear market does not look likely,
a near-term correction looking much more probable,” according to Peter
Oppenheimer. China’s Hubei province has
once again extended business closures to March 11th as they continue
to battle to contain the virus spread. The
Commerce Ministry in China also warned of possible long-term impacts on key
sectors such as labor-intensive industries.
While the SPY and QQQ broke out of the clouds to blue skies
yesterday, the DIA and IWM closed the day just below key resistance levels. Trends remain very bullish, and there seems
to be no price too high on several tech giants as buyers continue to snap them
up despite warnings and parabolic price patterns. Traders should guard themselves from
overtrading and chasing extended stock prices well above price supports. Ahead of a big day of earnings and economic
reports, US Futures appear slightly more cautious this morning after the
Goldman warning.
The bulls are just relentless. A gap higher (strong one in the QQQ) led to a green day in the markets. The DIA was up only 0.39%, the SPY up 0.48%, and the QQQ up a strong 0.96%. The led to another new all-time high close in both the SPY and QQQ. While the SPY and DIA were not decisive, the QQQ put in a strong white-body candle. Again, the VXX shows no fear in the market at 13.56 and the T2122 remains in the mid-range at 61.13. The long and short of it is that nothing has slowed the bulls much in this run. This is the case despite the NASDAQ being well extended and the large-cap indices having consolidated or even looked toppy recently.
On the news front, the Producer Price Index for January came in much higher than expected (highest in 18mo), but Building Permits were also higher than expected. The Fed speakers and FOMC Minutes both confirmed that no rate changes are expected this year. However, it also confirms that the Fed does see coronavirus as a global economic threat. Both Bloomberg and CNBC report that other analysts and firms also think the market is underestimating the virus impact, but so far the bulls could not seem to care less.
On the coronavirus front, the headline numbers are over 76,000 confirmed cases and about 2,150 deaths worldwide. With that said, new cases reported in China continue to show a trend toward slowing growth. However, China has changed the way they report cases again, which dramatically lowered the numbers from yesterday. In terms of impact, there were rumors of the Chinese government either pumping money into or simply buying out their airline industry, which has been decimated by over least six weeks without flights. In addition, 10 days after it was supposed to restart, Foxconn (AAPL main iPhone supplier) said it will cautiously restart production in its larger plants.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. On the other hand, Europe is red across the board at this point in their day. As of 7:45 am, U.S. futures are also pointing toward a mildly lower open, looking to open down less than two-tenths of a percent in the major indices.
Thursday’s major economic news includes Weekly Jobless Claims and the Feb. Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am) and Oil Inventories (11 am). On the earnings front, AEP, CPB, HSIC, HFC, HRL, LKQ, NEM, NCLH, PWR, SO, TFX, VTR, and VIAC all report before the open. LNT, COG, ED, and SBAC report after the close.
$50.00 discount with code: Privilege
The bulls haven’t even hesitated over coronavirus so far. It certainly hasn’t paid for those who bet a pullback must take place. However, more and more analysts are expecting that pullback to come. Meanwhile, the markets just keep climbing that wall of worry. This, of course, leads to a concern about overextension, especially in the QQQ.
So, the trend remains bullish and the major indices are all at or very near their all-time highs. However, we need to keep in mind that the large-caps have been indecisive for a few days now, overextension is real, and Logic would tell us there will eventually be some market impact from a global event (particularly one devastating the second largest economy in the world).
So, remain cautious and continue to be nimble or hedged. Just keep consistently taking profits and moving stops. Plan the trade and trade the plan. Don’t chase or get complacent and let a profitable position (or several) go South. As traders, our job is to keep producing those singles and doubles, hit an occasional home run among a string of strikeouts.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ZTS, MSI, CTSH, ALL, CLX, KO, WRB, ZBH, DHI, EHC, MSFT, ROL, CSX, MS, INFO. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Virus, we don’t care about no stinking virus! After AAPL warned of substantial impacts
creating a selloff, the bulls seem to have regained control as even AAPL
rallied by the end of the day. China’s media
censorship has mainstream news outlets like CNBC questioning the validity of
reports out of the region as three Wall Street Journal reporters were expelled
from the country today. No price seems
to high for some tech companies as the push for record highs continues. Don’t bother us with warnings; we want a 30,000
Dow!
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher overnight, and European markets are green across the board this morning. US Futures opened bullish last night and stayed the way all night currently pointing to a bullish open ahead of a big day of earnings reports and the release of the FOMC minutes at 2 PM Eastern today. Continue to expect news-driven reversals and the possibility of big overnight gaps as the outbreak uncertainty warnings continue to come out despite the willingness of the market to ignore them.
On the Calendar
On the Hump Day earnings calendar, we have a big day with nearly
190 companies reporting. Notable reports
include SAM, ALB, CAR, BHC, ARPN, FUN, CAKE, CDE, DISH, ET, ETR, FVRR, FOSL,
GRMN, GPC, HST, H, NTES, OC, PXD, O, STMP, VIPS, WMB, & ZG.
Action Plan
After a selling pullback after AAPL warned of substantial
virus impacts, the bulls seemed to regain control by the close. Even AAPL itself rallied by the end of the
day as the bulls choose to ignore company warnings. Jaguar and Land Rover said they only have
about 2-weeks of parts left, and Adidas warned this morning that their business
activity in China dropped 85%. With
confirmed cases continuing to rise, futures markets have traded in the green
all night long. Three Wall Street
Journal reports have been expelled from Chiana as the government censorship of
the news clamps down tighter to control the narrative.
If the market wants to ignore and push higher all, we can do
as traders is to continue to follow the price action. However, we should be very careful not to over-trade
and take profits quicker because of the possibility of large morning gaps, and
news-driven reversal risk remains very high.
Several big tech stocks have moved into parabolic patterns as it seems traders
have decided that no price is too high to pay for market leaders. A condition that’s very reminiscent of the
tech run-up in 1999. Choose your trades
wisely and avoid chasing stocks at or near resistance or those already several
days up in their current run.
After bad weekend news from PIR and AAPL, WMT missed expectations in the premarket Tuesday. This caused a gap down at the open. However, after a sideways grind in the morning, the bulls slowly climbed back up all afternoon. The SPY closed down 0.26%, the DIS down 0.54%, and the QQQ up 0.04%, which was another all-time high close for the NASDAQ. The SPY and DIA printed indecisive candles, while the QQQ was more bullish. However, all three major indices are looking at least like they are consolidating, if not even a little toppy over the last four candles.
On the news front, CNBC reported that company stock repurchases (buybacks) are down so far this year in the slowest start since 2013. This indicates companies are holding on to their cash, which is usually an indication of their own concern or at least uncertainty over their future performance. As a point of reference, buybacks are down 30% from 2019 levels. However, to be fair, 2019 was a record-breaking year for buybacks.
After hours, GS reported a study that found that almost all of the entire market’s earnings growth for Q4 came from the five mega-cap tech companies (AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, FB, and GOOG). Russell 2000 earnings fell 7%, the S&P 500 earnings grew 2% on average…but those 5 companies (which are included in the S&P) were up 16%. The report went on to say that those 5 stocks now comprise 18% of the S&P500 market cap and the growth has not been this concentrated since the 2000 tech bubble burst.
On the coronavirus front, MDLZ reopened some of its manufacturing plants in China as did GM and FCAU. However, the W.H.O. continues to say it is too early to determine whether the spread is slowing inside China. As another example, Adidas says seen an 85% drop in their business activity (sales and manufacturing) in the last month. The impact numbers themselves continue to grow as now more than 75,000 confirmed cases have been reported and the death toll has risen to over 2,000 globally. Bear in mind that most of those cases are in China.
Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board. In Europe, the bulls are running as well with green in all the major bourses. As of 7:45 am, U.S. futures are also pointing toward a higher open of between a quarter and half a percent in the major indices.
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Wednesday’s major economic news includes Jan. Building Permits, Jan Housing Starts, and Jan. PPI (all at 8:30 am), as well as the FOMC Minutes release (2 pm). There are also a number of Fed speakers during the day. On the earnings front, ADI, ETR, GRMN, GPC, and DISH all report before the open. ALB, CAR, XEC, ES, HST, MOS, PXD, O, SNPS, and WMB report after the close.
The bulls have seemed to be running low on energy for the last few days. However, there is has been no evidence that the bears can take advantage of this lack of bullish momentum. This morning it looks like the bulls may try another little push. The trend certainly remains bullish and all the major indices are still very near their all-time highs. However, we need to keep in mind that markets have been indecisive for a few days now.
So, remain cautious and continue to be nimble or hedged. Just keep consistently taking profits and moving stops. Plan the trade and trade the plan. Don’t chase or get complacent and let a profitable position (or several) go South. As traders, our job is to keep producing those singles and doubles, hit an occasional home run among a string of strikeouts.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BYND, HOME, TWTR, CNC, IPG, AKAM, BLL, CTSH. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Coronavirus economic impacts continue to grow as AAPL &
HSBC joins the chorus of companies warning of sales and revenue declines due to
the outbreak. The early morning earnings
miss my WMT only added to the selling pressure on the indexes this morning as markets
around the world try to come to grips with the economic uncertainty. With a short week filled with earnings and
economic reports, we should plan for significant price volatility, news-driven
reversals and potentially large morning gaps.
I would not expect the bulls to give up their quest to reach out to Dow
30,000 easily but I think it would be wise to expect the bears to become more
aggressive as the virus impact grows.
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower as Moody’s lowers
China’s economic growth projection. European
markets see only red this morning as German confidence sharply declines due to
outbreak trade pressures. US Futures
this morning point a Dow gap down of more than 150 points ahead of a big day
earnings reports. Expect just about
anything in the days ahead as the bulls and bears grapple with the unknown future
impacts of the outbreak.
On the Calendar
On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have over 140 companies
reporting quarterly reports. Notable
reports include WMT, AAP, ACC, AWK, BLMN, DVN, ECL, EXPD, EXR, FLR, GRPN, HLF,
LZB, LDOS, LC, MDT, & TRU.
Action Plan
Over the long weekend, coronavirus infections continue to
expand with Singapore, and Japan is now warning of recession as a result. APPL has now joined the chorus of companies that
expect product delays, declining sales, and revenue projections as a result of
the outbreak. This morning German investor
confidence sharply deteriorated as fears grow of significant world trade impacts.
Moody’s has once again lowered China’s economic
growth forecast from 5.8% to 5.2% for 2020 with Macao and Hong Kong expected to
face the biggest hit. The London based
HSBC which earns most it’s profits from Asia, is bracing for a first-quarter
impact with longer-term effects throughout 2020.
As a result, it’s not a surprise that markets around the world
are reacting negatively over the last 12 hours.
Facing a short week of trading with a large number of earnings reports
and a busy economic calendar, traders should expect substantial price volatility
in the days ahead. The bulls will not
give up this rally easily with Dow 30,000 within reach. On the other hand, with economic growth
concerns growing, we should expect the bears to become increasingly aggressive as
the outbreak impacts come to light. Plan
your risk carefully and don’t be surprised by news-driven reversals and large
market opening gaps as the market wrestles with the uncertainty.
In front of the long weekend, markets put in an indecisive sideways grind all day on Friday. All three major averages printed Doji type candles with the SPY gaining 0.16%, the DIA losing 0.09%, and the QQQ gaining 0.29%. This made for another new all-time high close in the SPY and QQQ. The VXX was down again, closing at 13.52 and the T2122 rose a bit but remains in the mid-range at 71.59.
Among the news stories that may have helped markets in the afternoon was a CNBC report that the White House is considering tax incentives to encourage more investing in the stock market. This may have helped offset slightly worse than expected Industrial Production numbers from before the open. The only Friday news on the coronavirus was that China had “sharply tightened” the already strict quarantine in Wuhan. However, after the close, CNBC reported that 20% of the S&P 500 members had already warned that the virus would have an impact on operations, financial performance or both.
Over the weekend, PIR declared bankruptcy, but also released a statement that they had reached an agreement with lenders to provide it with $256 million to keep it afloat while it tries to find a buyer. This comes six weeks after it reported both a loss and sales that were down over 11% from the prior year. This may or may not provide a read-through to competitors like BBBY. It is also worth noting that WMT missed it’s earnings on both the top and bottom line when it reported this morning.
On the coronavirus front, in some positive news, Macao reopened its casinos on Tuesday following a two-week shutdown. In addition, the W.H.O. reported that the trends outside of China seem promising (whatever that means exactly). However, the numbers continue to grow as more than 72,400 confirmed cases have been reported and the death toll has risen to nearly 1900 globally.
In terms of impacts, the event cancellations (such as annual conventions in Geneva, Switzerland) and new quarantines and travel restrictions (780 million people in China are subject to lock-down or some form of travel restriction related to virus prevention) continue. AAPL also warned that it will not meet its January-released guidance for the second quarter. They blamed iPhone supply chain constraints (China Foxconn operations) and reduced Chinese demand as the reasons.
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Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, with Japan, Korea, Australia, and Hong Kong deeply in the red. Meanwhile, Shenzhen was strongly green. However, as of this point in their day, Europe is in the red across the board. As of 7:45 am, U.S. futures are pointing toward a gap lower of half a percent across the major indices.
Tuesday’s major economic news is limited to NY Empire State Fed Mfg. Index (8:30 am). However, there are some earnings, with AAP, ALLE, ECL, EXPD, MDT, VMC, WMT, and WAB all reporting before the open.
As we come back from a long weekend, it’s time to see if the bulls are ready to run again or we might see some pullback. The trend continues to be strongly bullish and all the major indices are very near all-time highs (including even the IWM). It certainly has not paid to fight the trend recently. However, we are still a bit extended from averages and earnings news is not great.
Just maintain your consistency. Keep locking in profits, being cautious and remaining nimble or hedged. Remember, make the trade come to you, plan the trade and trade the plan. Don’t get complacent and let a profitable position (or several) go South on you. Our job is to keep producing singles and doubles, not a string of strikeouts and an occasional home run.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NWL, SPGI, PYPL, FLO, FLDM, VSH, QRVO, BKE, DIOD, VIVE, IRWD. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
The virus outbreak grows and more and more companies warn of
future impacts, but the bulls keep marching higher without fear. Yesterday, Guggenheim Partners Global CIO,
said that the GDP Growth in China’s first-quarter could be as a negative 6% and
went on to say, “We are in a ludicrous season.”
If he right, we may have trouble time ahead, but for now, the bulls are
in control and buying is all they seem to have on their minds.
Overnight Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher as
Singapore warns of recession risk, and more than 4000 new cases of infection reported. European markets are trading cautiously mixed
but mostly higher this morning. US Futures
are green across the board but modestly so ahead of earnings and a big economic
calendar data dump. With the uncertainty
of the 3-day weekend, will the bulls continue to drive upward or might there be
some profit-taking?
On the Calendar
On the Friday earnings calendar, we get a little break with less
than 50 companies reporting results today.
Notable reports include AL, ABR, AZN, CGC, MGP, NWL, PPL, TRTN, & YNDX.
Action Plan
What is there about this market? Bulls are in control and they seem to be on a mission to push the Dow to 30,000 no matter what. Companies continue to issue warning after warning that the virus outbreak will have and impact going forward but prices continue to increase as if there is no price too high to buy. The quote below says it much better than I.
Guggenheim Partners Global CIO Scott Minerd
said in a letter to clients that the elevated prices in financial markets show
a “cognitive dissonance” from economic reality that has created a dangerous
bubble among debt assets.
“This will eventually end badly. I have
never in my career seen anything as crazy as what’s going on right now,” Minerd
said.
Guggenheim Partners Global CIO Scott Minerd
said in a letter to clients that the elevated prices in financial markets show
a “cognitive dissonance” from economic reality that has created a dangerous
bubble among debt assets.
“This will eventually end badly. I have
never in my career seen anything as crazy as what’s going on right now,” Minerd
said.
“We are either moving into a completely new paradigm, or the speculative energy in the market is incredibly out of control. I think it is the latter. I have said before that we have entered the silly season, but I stand corrected,” Minerd said at the end of his letter. “We are in the ludicrous season.”
My question, ss we head into a 3-day weekend will the bulls
continue to drive higher without regard to coming impacts or will traders and
investors take profits due to the uncertainty.
As for me, I plan to go into the weekend very light in my accounts.
Markets gapped lower Thursday on fear stoked by the huge jump in reported cases and deaths from the coronavirus. (As noted yesterday, this jump was likely largely due to the Chinese changing the way they report cases, which may be prone to cause trends that are less smooth.) At any rate, after the gap down, the bull immediately charged in to fade the gap. From that point onward, the rest of the day was a sideways grind around the break-even line. For the day, the DIA closed down 0.30%, the SPY down 0.11% and the QQQ down 0.13%. So, we recorded a down day, but not by much considering the gap down. The VXX remains low at 13.69 and T2122 fell again, but remains in the mid-range at 69.27.
In the news, the Fed announced it will reduce new Repo market purchases (purchases will continue, just at a lower rate). AMZN also obtained a temporary injunction against MSFT working on the Pentagon cloud contract. WMT also announced it would discontinue its unprofitable high-end personal shopping service called Jetblack and W reported it will cut 500 jobs (3% of its workforce). In other market news, CSCO stock was hammered Thursday after it reported falling revenue and failed to beat earnings expectations on Wednesday evening.
However, once again coronavirus was the top story of the day. As mentioned, China changed its reporting methods and overnight Wed. reported over 15,000 “new” cases and 250 “new” deaths. Obviously, this scared markets and the White House did not help matters by publicly stating it did not have confidence in the information coming from China. (While true, expressing that skepticism after such an increase in the numbers was reported does not help public confidence.)
As of Friday, the counts stand at 64,000 cases and almost 1,400 deaths. The impact is continuing to spread as airlines, cruise lines and other travel-related industries have been hit hard by decreased demand. In addition, KHC and FCAU were among the companies that closed their manufacturing operations in China within the last 24 hours. Many other companies warned of revenue and earnings impacts, perhaps obviously including BABA.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. However, as of this point in their day, Once again, Europe has shaken off the fear and is mainly green, As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures are back on the bullish side, pointing toward a gap higher of between a quarter and half a percent across the major indices.
$50.00 discount with code: Privilege
Major economic news today includes Jan. Retail Sales Core and Imports/Exports (both at 8:30 am), Jan. Industrial Production (9:15 am), Michigan Consumer confidence (10 am) and another Fed speaker just before noon. In addition, both China and the US are scheduled to reduce more tariffs on Friday. The only major earnings reports for the day are NWL and PPL, both before the open.
Friday could be a selling day as traders look to lock in gains in front of a 3-day weekend. (Don’t forget this is a long weekend with US markets closed Monday for Washington’s Birthday.) Certainly, there are great headline risks from coronavirus over that period, but also from the follow-on impacts/statements of businesses over the period as well. However, the trend remains strongly and stubbornly bullish and all the major indices are very near all-time highs (including even the IWM).
All I can do is continue to tell you to not fight the trend, but also keep locking in profits, being cautious and remaining nimble or hedged. Remember to make the trade come to you (rather than chasing), plan the trade and trade the plan. Don’t get complacent and let a profitable position (or several) go South on you.
Ed
No Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist on a Friday in front of a 3-day weekend. Today is payday. So, book some profits. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Bearish virus fears and bullish earnings reports will duke it out for control today after a surprising increase in confirmed cases and deaths. The bulls clearly want to ring the 30,000 Dow bell, but this pesky microscopic virus might stand in the way. With the confirmed cases surging to more than 48,000 and an increase of 242 deaths, the likely economic impacts are growing more difficult to ignore. Expect substantial price volatility as the bulls and bear duke it out and remember we now face the uncertainty of a 3-day weekend. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, avoid over-trading and consider your risk carefully.
Asian markets closed down across the board with business closures extended until the 21st. European market are decidedly bearish this morning trading in the red across the board as virus fears rise. US Futures point to a nasty gap down overnight reversal ahead of a big day of earnings and economic data. Fasten your seat-belt; this could be a bumpy ride heading into a long weekend.
On the Calendar
On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have our biggest day
this week, with more than 230 companies fessing up to results. Notable reports include ROKU, NVDA, ANN, AEM,
BABA, AIG, AVP, BAM, CC, DLR, DISH, EXPE, FTS, GNC, GDDY, IRM, KHC, LH, MANU,
MAT, PEP, R, SSTK, TRUP, WM, WH, AUY, YELP, YETI, & ZTS.
Acton Plan
Although a very big day of earnings reports, the market is
facing a nasty overnight reversal this morning as the virus outbreak comes back
into focus. China said it confirmed more than 15,000 new
cases and 254 additional deaths bring the death toll to more than 1300. Total cases now exceed 48,000. Global oil demand expects to see it the first
quarterly decline in over 10-years as a result of the outbreak. Hubei province once again extended business
shutdowns to Feb, 21, and Hong Kong extended school closures for the 3rd
time in the virus battle. One has to
wonder with this huge surge in confirmed cases and a 3-day weekend just around
the corner if the fear of uncertainty will begin to encroach on the unbridled bullishness
of late.
After the bell yesterday, AMAT made investors cheer with
stock leaping nearly 3% but NTAP and CSCO disappointed with share prices
dropping 12% and 4.5% respectively. Before
the bell today, BABA reports, and it will be very interesting to find out if
the outbreak helped or hurt the huge online retailer. Overnight reversals such as the one we face
this morning are not only damaging to those unprepared but also brings the
possibility of a big emotional response. Remember it was only 10-days ago when the Dow
dropped 600 points on virus fears. I
have to wonder what kind of reaction could be possible after rallying more than
1200 points in 9-days as we approach the uncertainty of a 3-day weekend. Expect significant price volatility in the
days ahead.
The bulls gapped markets higher Wednesday and then slowly ground higher the rest of the day. All three indices closed near their highs and at new all-time high closes. The QQQ gained 0.97%, DIA gained 0.95%, and SPY lagged at a gain of 0.64%. At the same time VXX fell to 13.40 and T2122 inched closer to overbought territory at 79.81. In short, the bulls continue to run hard and although we are extended from the moving averages, they are only in the mood to hear good news these days.
On the news front, Fed Chair Powell testified in the Senate, largely reprising his Tuesday Congress testimony. Essentially, he said the economy is in a good place, the Fed has a close eye on the impact of the coronavirus and that no more Fed moves are needed in the immediate future. He also said that economists should have a better handle on the virus’ impact on the US economy “soon.” In other economic news, the Federal Deficit has jumped 25% in the last year and now stands at $1.1 trillion per year. Federal revenue (taxes) are up slightly over that period, while spending has increased 9.6%.
In the virus arena, China has changed the way they report new cases going forward. Under the new method, there must be not only a positive test, but also a fever before a patient is counted as a confirmed case. This has the effect of lowering the number of new cases reported on an individual day and may lead to erroneous optimism. On the other hand, it could lead to pooling of reports causing more jumpiness in the trend line. For example, the number of cases jumped 15,000 last night due to this effect. As of now, the confirmed count remains over 60,000 and the death toll 1,369.
As far as virus impact is concerned, more than 85,000 flights to/from China have been canceled so far (with BA claiming this is having a major impact on sales due to reduced travel and cargo activity). A major technology conference in Europe has also been canceled over virus fear (after most major companies had pulled out and forbidden employee attendance). Finally, OPEC has slashed its global oil demand forecast by 19%, citing virus impacts.
Overnight, Asian markets were in the red as the jump in reported virus cases spooked investors. Once again, Europe has followed Asia as we see red across the board. As of 7:45 am, U.S. futures are again pointing to follow the rest of the world with a gap lower of between six and eight-tenths of a percent.
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Major economic news on Thursday is limited to Initial Jobless Claims and Core CPI (both at 8:30 am). In terms of earnings, AIG, BWA, DUK, FIS, HII, IPGP, INCY, IRM, KHC, LH, PEP, R, WM, and ZTS all report before the open. Meanwhile, ANET, DLR, EXPE, LBTYA, LBTYK, MHK, NVDA, and RSG report after the close.
What a difference a night makes. Today it seems Mr. Market is saying “on second thought, let’s worry.” Certainly, the signs of risk have been there with OPEC cutting global oil demand forecasts and companies left and right decrying the impact on their expected operations. However, we (or at least I) cannot predict the market’s reaction.
The trend remains strongly bullish and all the major indices are now in blue sky territory (if maybe a bit extended). It sure hasn’t paid to be short lately, despite the risks, All I can do is continue to tell you to keep locking in profits, being cautious and remaining nimble or hedged. Don’t get complacent and let a profitable position (or several) go South on you.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SPGI, TWTR, XPO, AAPL, TGT, APO, SPXS, TZA, THC, SQQQ, VXX. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
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🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
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🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
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