Fueled by Fed, vaccine, and stimulus hopes the market shrugged off the very disappointing private payrolls numbers as the Dow surged more than 370 points, and the SP-500 closed only 2% below new record highs. Today we face another big day of news-driven price action with more than 400 earnings reports and Jobless Claims. As this rally stretches-out, remember profit-taking could begin at any time, so stay focused. Although weak, the bears still exist, so be careful not to be lulled into complacency.
Asian markets closed mostly lower overnight, and European indexes are modestly lower across the board after the Bank of England holds rates steady. US Futures have pulled back from overnight highs as we wait on earnings and jobless data before the open. It’s been a wild bullish party every day this week. The question will the party go on, or will the hangover begin soon?
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Thursday earnings calendar, we now have more than 400 companies fessing up to quarterly results. Notable reports include AL, AEP, APLE, BLL, BHC, BDX, BKNG, CAH, CUBE, DBX, FSLR, FLIR, FLO, GCI, GPRO, GWPH, HL, ILMN, IRM, KTB, MAIN, MELI, MUR, MYL, NWSA, NLOK, NCLH, PZZA, PLUG, POST, RMAX, QSR, STMP, TMUS, TM, TTD, TRIP, VIAC, WIX, YELP, & ZTS.
News & Technical’s
Even with a very disappointing ADP, private payrolls number, the market continues to rally energetically as if jobs no longer matter in the economy. With the Dow closing up 373 points and SP-500 only 2% from new record highs the VIX struggles to decline, and the Absolute Breadth Index displays a remarkable divergence to the bullish price action. How much longer this condition can continue to exist is anyone’s guess, but one thing for sure, the bulls continue to stampede higher with little to no regard for valuation. Keep an eye on AAPL as it nears a 2 Trillion market cap accounting for a full 6.5% of the entire SP-500. After another day of wrangling, Congress remains deadlocked on the next Stimulus plan. Some have suggested a Friday deadline to get to an agreement, and the President has promised an executive order should they fail. Gold and Silver continue to rally sharply as the debasement of the US dollar continues, and worry of substantial future inflation grows.
Today we will get the latest reading on Jobless Claims with consensus estimates looking for a slight rise in applicants this week. However, whatever the number is, I’m not sure it will matter as the market continues to ride the massive wave newly printed money. As you plan your day, remember we will get the Employment Situation number before the market opens on Friday. Consensus suggests an improvement in the unemployment rate of 11.1% last month to 10.5%. Even with the improvement, it isn’t easy to correlate the current market valuation with such a high level of unemployment. As this multi-day rally stretches-out, stay vigilant to price action watching for the possibility that profit-taking could begin at any time.
Markets gapped modestly higher Wednesday on a DIS beat of massively reduced expectations and were held back by a huge miss in new ADP July payrolls and the lack of progress on a stimulus package deal. The SPY and QQQ chopped sideways the whole day, but DIA had a rally on the back of DIS and BA (after GOP Senators proposed $25 billion in airline industry aid. On the day DIA was up 1.34%, SPY up 0.60%, and QQQ up 0.25%. The VXX fell 2% to 27.04 and T2122 rose higher into the overbought territory at 94.81. 10-year bond yields rose to 0.551% and oil climbed to $42.16/barrel. Gold also continued its rally closing at another record of $2,051.40/oz as the dollar continued to devalue.
Bloomberg reported Wednesday afternoon that the country’s 4 largest banks (JPM, WFC, BAC, C) had $152 billion in loans that are in “deferred payments” status as of the end of June. Since there is no standardized reporting of this information to the SEC, it is likely the total in “deferred” status is much higher. For example, WFC only reports on residential loan deferrals (not commercial). At the same time, C outlined only that most of its deferred payments are coming from credit cards.
The stimulus plan negotiations made some progress Wednesday with the White House agreeing to higher unemployment benefits through December (70% of compensation plus $400/week) and Democrats agreeing to reduce their Postal Service funding from $25 billion to $10 billion. Meanwhile, away from the negotiations, Republican Senators who are up for reelection offered their own bill that is even more generous than what the White House agreed. The 3 Senators offered 80% of compensation plus $400-$500/week (at State discretion) for August and then 80% plus $400/week through the end of the year. Even though not part of the negotiations, since it was introduced as a bill, one has to assume their levels become the minimum of an end-deal.
In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,973,741 confirmed cases and 161,608 deaths. On the day, we saw over 55,000 new cases (still suspiciously well below a week ago and far below the 7-day average) and over 1,300 deaths (above the 7-day average). KS reported late Wednesday that its counties that do not have mask mandates have seen higher spread rates than those that have mandates. Meanwhile, another group (The Infectious Disease Society of America) urged a Federal mask mandate in an open letter to VP Pence. In virus-related business news, JNJ reached a $1 billion deal with the government to produce 100 million doses of vaccine, once a vaccine has been approved.
Globally, the number of cases has reached 19,005,651 confirmed cases and 711,863 deaths. In Europe, both France and Germany reported their highest daily increase in cases since May while the spread in Spain is back to levels it saw in April. Poland also increased restrictions a notch again. In Asia, Australia’s 2nd largest city (Melbourne) has been placed on total lockdown for 6 weeks. In China, despite a tiny new case count, the country has ramped up testing to 4.85 million tests per day.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side again. The only significant movers were South Korea (+1.33%) and Singapore (+1.04%). At the same time, China, Japan, and Hong Kong were modestly lower. However, in Europe, we see red across the board at this point. The FTSE is down 2%, CAC down 1.2%, and DAX down 0.85%. The only news I know of that may be the driver in Europe is the Bank of England holding rates steady and warning of slower recovery. However, it may be the trade war between the US and China or even the lack of a US stimulus deal that weighs on sentiment. In the US, at 7:30 am futures are flat, all 3 major indices sitting just on the red side of break-even from yesterday’s close.
The major economic news is limited to Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and a Fed speaker (Kaplan at 10 am). Major earnings releases include ADNT, AEP, AES, BCE, BDX, BHC, BLL, BMY, CAH, CNP, CNQ, COMM, CORE, GLP, HFC, HII, HLT, HWM, JLL, KBR, LNG, MYL, NSIT, OLN, PH, PWR, TEN, THS, TRGP, VIAC, WLK, and ZTS all before the open. Then after the close, AEE, AVT, BECN, BHF, CWK, DXC, ED, EOG, FLO, HLF, MWK, PBA, PRSP, POST, RSG, TDS, TMUS, UBER, UNVR, and WCN report.
Markets remain seemingly unrelentingly bullish. The SPY is now back to within 2% of its all-time high and QQQ seems to print new all-time highs daily. However, by most counts, markets could use a rest again. Still, this most recent surge has come in a more orderly action (fewer huge gaps and whipsaw candles). And that sort of price action tends to allow moves to last longer. So, don’t fight the trend, but remain aware that another pause or swing to the downside may come soon.
As always, stick to your trading rules and execute with discipline. Follow the trend, don’t predict reversals or chase missed-moves, and don’t be greedy. Take profits along the way. Remember, a trader’s job is to consistently achieve goals and build their account. It’s a job, so treat it that way and work rather than hoping to catch those 2,500% “lightening in a bottle” trades. There are a lot of reads that made a killing taking profit on the KODK explosion and a lot more that chased or wanted even more and have now blown out their account. Learn that lesson.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: BB, MRO, F, NLY, NIO, CAR, PAAS, ABT, URI, IAG. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
The NASDAQ gap up this morning my well create its 31st record high in the index this year. Fueling the bullish morning sentiment is news that Congress is nearing a deal on another massive spending bill, and the Fed is nearing a commitment to leave interest rates low for years to get an inflation rate above 2%. Yesterday Gold topped $2000 an ounce and is up by another $36 and Silver continue rapidly rising on the devaluing of the US dollar. Buy, Buy, Buy and party like its 1999.
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher overnight as tensions grow with a US visit to Taiwan likely to anger China. European markets are in rally mode this morning, reacting to favorable earnings results. US Futures point to another gap up open ahead of a busy day of earnings and economic reports hopeful of a more than trillion-dollar stimulus deal on the way.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Hump day earnings calendar, we have more than 300 companies reporting results. Notable reports include FSLY, SQ, DDD, ALRM, ALB, AWK, ABC, BNFT, BWA, BIP, CWH, CNVA, FUN, CTL, CVS, DISCA, ENR, EPR, ETSY, FRT, FISV, FIT, FNV, GDDY, TWNK, HUBS, HUM, IIPR, JCK, LYV, MRO, MET, MRNA , NYT, NLSN, OIH, PAAS, PBPB, PSA, REGN< ROKU, SRE, STOR, SPWR, TRI, VSLR, W, WELL, & WEN.
News and Technical’s
News that Congress may soon reach an agreement on the stimulus bill and the possibility that FOMC may commit to not change interest rates until reaching a 2% inflation rate has today’s futures suggesting more new record highs. The gap up at the open will create the 31st new record high this year in the NASDAQ as unprecedented Fed actions, and government spending programs continue to drive the market higher. Also quickly rising is Gold, which topped $2000 per ounce yesterday and is another $36 per ounce this morning as we continue to devalue the US dollar. A national debit quickly nearing 27 Trillion seems to be of no consequence as long as the market moves higher. Disney reported it lost 3.5 billion in theme park revenue, but with 100 million subscribers to the Disney Plus app, the stock is up more than 6% higher this morning. Today we will hear from ADP on their Employment Report, International Trade, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, and the Petroleum Status numbers as well as more than 300 earnings reports. F=Remember we are building toward the Employment Situation number Friday morning. Not that unemployment matters anymore in light of all the newly printed money.
Technically speaking, the bulls reaming solidly in control with the tech sector continuing to set new records and the Dow that may well top 27,000 with this mornings gap up. The VIX remains elevated but closed below a 24 handle for the first time since February. Today the DIA 50-day average is likely to cross the 200-day average recovering from the cross down that occurred in mid-March. Follow suit will be the IWM cross that may rise above later this week or early next week, assuming the bears continue to stay away.
Markets gapped down slightly Tuesday and then chopped sideways until the last hour of the day. Then the bulls stepped in for a late-day rally that ran prices up into the close. On the day SPY closed up 0.39%, QQQ up 0.37%, and DIA up 0.63%. This made for another all-time high close in the QQQ. VXX was down again, closing at 27.62 and T2122 rose into the overbought territory at 90.78. 10-year bond yields fell as money chased safety closing at 0.51% and Oil (WTI) finished up to $41.59/barrel. Gold was also up again, closing at $2,034.60/oz.
The stimulus deal remains far from done. Interestingly, the splits in the GOP side have resulted in Senate Majority Leader McConnell being sidelined. When asked Tuesday evening, he was unaware of the status of negotiations. However, he did say that if / when the White House and Democrats do reach an agreement, he is prepared to support the deal. Meanwhile, Speaker of the House Pelosi told Fox News she doesn’t think a deal will be reached this week, while the White House told them a deal will be made this week. Negotiators will resume talks Wednesday.
Late in the day Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that Fed sources tell them the FOMC is expected to soon announce another major push to add inflation to the economy. This is nothing new as markets seem to have been banking on such a move with rising commodity prices and a falling dollar. However, it has never been announced that this is actually an official policy. The new policy and programs aimed at implementing it should be announced sometime in the next few weeks. Still, there are reportedly internal detractors to the policy who fear the idea of purposefully raising inflation in a high unemployment environment as well as fearing the “unintended consequences” of simply pushing rates to an arbitrary number hoping for only good effects.
In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,918,770 confirmed cases and 160,323 deaths. US daily numbers remain questionable as among others, CA reported dramatic undercounts the last few days due to the changes in destination and format of reporting, as well as now having two formats under new HHS policies. On the day the report was 54,504 (low relative to a week ago) new cases and 1,362 deaths (which is more in line with historical data). Tuesday also saw another of the expected cases of students testing positive after returning to schools. This time a second-grader in GA.
On Tuesday, 34 State Attorneys General wrote a letter to HHC Sec. Azar warning him that GILD is not supplying enough of the drug remdesivir and that GILD’s recently announced drug pricing is impeding treatment of the virus. They urged the use of the Bayh-Dole Act to allow another company to make the patented drug (which was developed partially using public funds). In addition, 6 States (LA, MD, MS, MI, OH, VA) have acted to fill the void left by Federal inaction by forming their own pact to purchase 3 million quick-result tests themselves from BDX and QDEL rather than wait any more on Federal action.
Globally, the number of cases has reached 18,731,900 confirmed cases and 705,023 deaths. In China, the recent surge of cases seems to have been back under control with 22 reported new cases today. However, Japan reported over 1,200 new cases for the 8th straight day over 1,000, which for them is wildfire spread. In Australia, the 3rd day of lockdown has not yet seen a break in new case numbers. Deaths also remain at record numbers in Victoria province.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned toward the green side and were mostly calm. Only South Korea (+1.4%) and Indonesia (+1.03%) saw one percent moves. In Europe, we see green across the board at this point in the day on the back of good European Earnings reports. The FTSE is up 1% and the DAX and CAC are both up eight-tenths of a percent so far. In the US, at 7:30 am futures are pointing to a modest gap higher at the open. The DIA and SPY are looking to open up about 0.60% and the QQQ up about 0.32%.
The major economic news for Wednesday includes ADP nonfarm Payrolls (8:15 am), Import/Exports (8:30 am), July Markit Service PMI (9:45 am), July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10L30 am), and a Fed Speaker (Mester at 5 pm). Major earnings reports include ABC, ATH, BWA, CDW, CVS, DISCA, HMC, HUM, NLSN, NI, NXST, ODP, PRGO, PGR, REGN, REYN, SRE, TA, TEVA, TRI, VRT, AND W before the open. Then after the close, ADT, ALB, CWH, CVNA, CENTA, CTL ,CF, DCP, DOX, ET, FISV, GDDY, LNC, MET, PSA, RE, RMD, SQ, TRMB, UHAL, WELL, and WDC all report. (Sorry for the wrong list yesterday.)
Markets remain stubbornly bullish, but in a methodical way (not the huge gaps and big whiplash candles we saw not too long ago). We are approaching resistance in the large-cap indices, but the QQQ has clear skies overhead. The main driver will continue to be the stimulus deal negotiations. Democrats say they are staunch at $3.4 trillion and the Republicans, while split, seem to be at a number around $1 trillion. The area in between is where traders will hope or fear as Mr. Market either counts his money too soon or expects less than we’ll get.
Keep an eye on those mega-cap FAANG stocks. Yesterday they again pointed the way. Although they were split 50/50 on green/red lines among the eight largest cap stocks, the percentages pointed to exactly the index results we saw. Also, don’t forget to stick to your rules. Follow the trend, don’t predict reversals or chase missed-moves, and always take profits as you go. Our job is to consistently make our goals, not catch lightning in a bottle all in one trade.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: BJ, GPS, XLB, DG, XLP, PM, HD, XLI, VZ, APA, FRO. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Big tech continues to lead the way higher with Congress deadlocked on the next stimulus bill and a sharply declining Absolute Breadth Index. New tensions with China are having a slightly bearish effect on the market this morning as they label the US a ‘Rogue Country’ accusing the US of theft as the government clears the way for MSFT to purchase TikTok. China once again vows retaliation as we head into another big day of earnings reports.
Asian markets saw bullnesss across the board during the night, with Hong Kong rising a full 2%. European markets are mixed but mostly higher but have retreated from session highs on weak earnings results. US Futures point to a modest decline at the open in reaction to China tensions with the latest reading on Factory orders and a slew of earnings reports for the market to digest this morning.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Tuesday is a busy day on the economic calendar, with over 200 companies stepping up to reports quarterly reports. Notable reports include BP, DIS, ATVI, ACM, ALL, AMCX, ANDE, ARNC, ANET, BYND, CNK, DVN, EXC, EXPD, EXR, FOXA, IT, GLUU, GDOT, IGT, KRR, LDOS, LC, TREE, LGIH, LPSN, MIC, MNK, MTCH, MCHP, NMST, NKLA, RL, TWLO, WU, WW, & WYNN.
News and Technical’s
It would seem the possible purchase of TikTok by MSFT has inflamed the tensions between the US and China. During the evening, Chinese state media slammed the US as a ‘rogue country.’ They call it a smash and grab of the Chinese technology and vow retaliation. The US has said that the App is a security risk funneling user data directly to the Chinese government, and without the possible purchase from MSFT, the was on the path to be banned by executive order. After another day of negotiations that, according to reports, was productive but ended with no deal on the stimulus thus far. The President is now saying if they don’t get it done soon, he could do by executive order. Morgan Stanley believes the vast sums of money put into keeping people in work as well as supporting those that are unemployed could make the difference in driving up inflation. The sharp rise in Gold and Silver would seem to agree with that sentiment. What that might mean for the future of the economy and its effects on the overall market, only time will tell.
Yesterday the QQQ closed at a new record high with all indexes rising with APPL and MSFT leading the bullish charge. The massive imbalance in the market continues to grow as with just a few tech giants lifting the indexes as the Absolute Breadth Index continues to decline sharply. That said, the technicals of the index charts remain very bullish with the DIA 50-day average posied to cross above its 200-day. As the indexes stretch out to new records on the bullishness in tech Gold, Silver and bonds continue to rise, and VIX remains stubbornly elevated. The question is, how long can this continue and what happens when the next shoe drops? Stay focused, and flexible.
Large Caps gapped a little over a half percent higher at the open. The rest of the day saw a sideways rollercoaster chop within a half percent range. The tech-heavy QQQ did the same thing except that its gap and chop range were both eight-tenths of a percent instead of half a percent. On the day, QQQ was up 1.35%, DIA was up 0.90%, and SPY was up 0.70%. VXX was flat, closing at 28.46 and T2122 rose back close to the overbought territory at 79.59. 10-year bond yields gained a bit to 0.554% and Oil (WTI) rose back to $40.78/barrel.
On Monday MSFT confirmed they are in talks to buy the TikTok application. MSFT stock was up over 5.6% on the news. As we know President Trump has threatened to ban the application, ostensibly on security concerns. However, many analysts see the move as a means of slowing Chinese growth in data technology, an industry dominated by US companies. Hence, the President’s “suggestion” the MSFT buy the whole company and not just North American operations. Regardless, the ban threat is the impetus for Chinese company Byte Dance to sell the app. However, going a stunning step further, Trump said Monday that the US government should be paid a substantial amount of money because he is the one forcing Byte Dance to sell. “Nice business you have there, it’d be a shame if it burned down. And it will burn down unless you sell it to somebody I like better, by a specific date, and I also get a nice cut from the deal.”
During the day, several Fed members pushed the urgency of getting more fiscal relief. Bloomberg cited comments from 4 of the Fed voters essentially saying it is critical that more money is pumped into the economy from the fiscal side…and soon. They all also made the point that unless inflation spike North of 2%, the Fed will do nothing to slow their own stimulus programs. Meanwhile, on the fiscal side haggling resumed Monday. All sides said the talks were productive, but there was no deal reached. In another Fed-related story, the FOMC said it has raised its own borrowing limit again, this time to $1 trillion for Q3 in order to support its monetary stimulus programs.
In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,862,513 confirmed cases and 158,968 deaths. The daily new case count fell precipitously (and perhaps suspiciously) Monday to 48,622 (from over 71,000 Friday or even 68,000 the prior Monday for example). This could be an anomaly, the result of HHS taking over data collection/reporting, or simply great luck. In any event, IF the numbers are accurate this is a major 30% step in the right direction. Deaths stayed at their normal pattern of low Monday numbers at 568, but even so a tremendously lower number Friday or even the previous Monday.
Globally, the number of cases has reached 18,476,324 confirmed cases and 698,224 deaths. In Australia, they have deployed their military to enforce isolation as well as levying very stiff fines in order to curb the spread. In Europe, a German Medical Assn. reported today that they believe the country is now experiencing a second wave. This also fits with the surge of cases seen in Spain. In Asia, India reported a sixth straight day of over 50,000 new cases reported (number seen to be widely under-reported in that country due to medical infrastructure and testing capacity).
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly well to the positive side. Only Shenzhen was red and Shanghai flat. The rest of the Asian markets were strongly green. In Europe, markets are a bit more mixed and much closer to flat as poor earnings and dividend cuts such as by BP take their toll. The DAX is in the red with the CAC flat, and the FTSE modestly green so far today. In the US, at 7:45 am futures are pointing to a modestly lower open. The DIA and SPY are looking at an open about 0.30% lower, while the is looking toward a gap down of 0.45%.
The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to June Factory Orders (10 am). The major earnings reports on the day include ACM, AMCX, AME, ARMK, ATI, BP, EMR, EXC, EXPD, FIS, HSIC, IT, LDOS, LEA, OMI, REZI, SPR, TDG, USFD, VMC, WEC, WRK, and ZBH all before the open. Then after the close ACHC, ALL, ATVI, AIZ, BBSI, DIS, DK, DVN, ENLC, EQH, FNF, FOXA, MCHP, OI, PAGP, PRU, PXD, TX, and WU report.
Markets are not wildly bullish, but the whippy grind higher continues. A positive trend in virus news certainly can’t hurt, even if it is only one data point so far. However, the real driver is the negotiations on a stimulus deal. When reached, that should buoy markets as we know Mr. Market loves him some free money.
As always, keep an eye on those mega-cap FAANG stocks as our “canary in the coalmine.” Stick to your rules. Follow the trend, don’t predict reversals or chase missed-moves, and always take profits as you go. Remember, our job is to make our goal consistently, not to win the lottery on one trade.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: AA, NIO, TAL, EBAY, TNA, DHI, XRT, CARR. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
With AAPL leading the way, the bulls once again successfully defended vital price support levels on Friday with a remarkable surge of buying at the end of day Friday. With a rise of 10.47%, APPL became the most valuable company in the world, and single handly was responsible for the majority of the rally. The bullish pressure continues this morning with APPL indicated to gap up at the open.
Asian markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight as China’s July manufacturing data come in above expectations. European indexes trade bullishly across the board this morning and US Futures that traded flat most of the night have gone bullish this morning with new record highs likely in the QQQ at the open. A busy economic and earnings calendar will likely keep volatility elevated in the week ahead, so remain focused on price action and remain flexible.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Our biggest week of earnings reports for the 3rd quarter is now behind us, but we still have a busy week with 146 companies reporting this Monday. Notable reports include AIG, AWR, CRUS, CLX, CTB, ESS, IR, J, LEG, L, MCK, MOS, NNN, O, RNG, SBAC, TTWO, THC, TXRH, TSN, VVV, SPCE, VNO,& WMB.
News and Technical’s
Saturday negotiations on the stimulus bill ended in a deadlock with the unemployment bonus remaining as the major sticking point. The $600 per week additional payment ended last Friday as the two sides duke it out with sound bites and rhetoric in the weekend news that will spill over into this week’s price action. As pandemic infections spread widely across the country, Lord & Taylor, the owner of Men’s Wearhouse files for bankruptcy. A theme that’s become all too familiar in recent months and sadly a reality that could easily continue through the rest of the year. Last week the President threatened to ban the popular social media app TikTok but has since backed off the notion after MSFT announced it is in discussions to buy the company in a deal they hope to complete by Sept. 15th. A move that would, for the first time, put MSFT in direct competition with FB and TWTR.
With a strong afternoon rebound, the bulls once again defend critical moving average support in the DIA mostly on the bullishness of AAPL. Not only did the price of the stock soar 10.47% on Friday, but it also became the most valuable company in the world. Pre-market activity indicates the rush to buy MSFT is not over with the stock indicated to gap up again at the open today. Although the US Futures were relatively flat overnight, they have started the morning push that is likely to set new all-time high records in the QQQ. Interestingly the Absolute Breadth Indicator continues to decline, which indicates fewer and fewer companies are responsible for the current rally. Expect another wild week of price action, especially if we begin to see any profit-taking in the big tech stocks.
Markets gapped higher Friday about six-tenths of a percent on the back of huge beats by the major tech stocks. However, this was met with an instant selloff that more than faded the gap. The lows were reached about 1 pm, followed by an hour of sideways grinding. However, at 2 pm a strong late-day rally drove prices higher right into the end of the day and saw prices close on the highs. For the day, DIA gained 0.41%, SPY gained 0.79%, and QQQ gained 1.78% as those major FAANG stocks (particularly AAPL) led the market. VXX fell to 28.52 and the T2122 4-week New High/Low Ratio fell to 59.68. The 10-year bond fell slightly to 0.533% and Oil (WTI) rose to $40.45/barrel.
The Enhanced Unemployment Benefit expired Friday as Congress, the Senate and the White House made little to no progress on negotiations. Republicans blamed Democrats for not accepting partial stop-gaps and Democrats blamed Republicans for waiting months to get to work and not even arriving at a proposal half of their own caucus will support. This all comes as rent and loan defaults are a growing concern in the real estate and banking sectors. Somewhat related to more stimulus, this weekend Fitch reduced the US Debt outlook from stable to negative citing current high fiscal deficits, deteriorating public finances, and a likely path to increasing medium-term debt.
In the virus front itself, in the US, the virus numbers show we now have 4,813,984 confirmed cases and 158,375 deaths. Friday saw over 71,000 new cases, well above the 7-day average. Deaths also remained far above the 7-day average at over 1,100 for the 5th day in a row. Dr. Fauci said this weekend that the virus is so contagious it is likely to never completely disappear, even with effective vaccines. On Sunday, his counterpart Dr. Birx warned that we are now in a new phase with “extraordinarily widespread” cases in the US.
Globally, the number of cases has reached 18,258,528 confirmed cases and 697,395 deaths. On Friday the W.H.O. reported a single-day record of over 300,000 new cases across the world. This weekend Russia said it is gearing up for a national vaccination program planning to start with healthcare workers and teachers. They’ll use a vaccine supposedly developed by themselves, although no scientific study data on the vaccine has been released. Western experts are skeptical that Russia really has an effective vaccine developed, tested, manufactured, and ready for rollout all 4-6 months ahead of the rest of the world. However, that is the Russian claim. In Australia, strict new measures including total curfews have been implemented in its second-largest state.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, with Japan and China as big gainers (on private survey reports showing China’s PMI (not government numbers) came in at a blowout 52.8 (highest in 9 years). In Europe, markets are basically green across the board, but there is a clear dichotomy so far today with the DAX up over 2% and the FTSE up less than seven-tenths of a percent on strong Eurozone Manufacturing PMI. In the US, at 7:30 am futures are pointing to a higher open, but following the European example, with a large spread. The DIA is looking to open up 0.30%, the SPY up 0.47%, and the QQQ up 0.91%.
The major economic news for Monday is limited to July Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), July ISM Mfg. Employment and July ISM Mfg. PMI (both at 10 am). The major earnings reports on the day include AHCO, ACM, AMCX, AME, ARMK, ATI, BP, EMR, EXC, EXPD, FIS, HSIC, LDOS, LEA, OMI, REZI, SPR, TDG, USFD, VMC, WEC, WRK, and ZBH all before the open. Then after the close ACHC, ALL, ATVI, AIZ, BBSI, DIS, DK, ENLC, EQH, FNF, MCHP, OI, PAGP, PRU, PXD, TX, and WU report.
The whiplash continued Friday with all three major indices printing Hammer or Hanging Man type candles. However, while both large-cap indices continue to consolidate, the mega-tech earnings blowouts saw the QQQ nearing a retest of the all-time highs. Manufacturing data that comes out this morning is expected to give the US a boost the way it did in Asia and Europe. However, remember that the virus remains much more of an unresolved problem here than elsewhere among the top economies.
The trend remains bullish, but volatility and certainty of direction also plays a significant role. So, continue to keep an eye on those mega-cap FAANG stocks as our “canary in the coalmine.” Stick with your rules. Follow the trend, don’t predict reversals or chase missed-moves, and always take profits as you go. Our job is to achieve our trade goals on a consistent basis, not to hit home runs every time we swing the bat.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: RIOT, NAT, IAG, DXC, NLOK, CSCO, PYPL, MSFT, ADBE. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
The worst reading on GDP in history and blowout tech earnings deliver a surprisingly muted response in the US Futures markets this morning. Even with the concern of rising unemployment with the four tech giants adding more than 200 billion in valuation on Thursday afternoon, I would have expected more. We have certainly seen the market leap higher on far less in recent months, have we not? With this now in the rear-view mirror, perhaps the focus has turned the stimulus battle in Congress and the rising virus death toll. Perhaps, we should consider the possibility of a sell the news event as we slide into the weekend.
Asian markets closed mixed with Japan falling as much as 3% overnight. European markets trade mixed but mostly bullish this morning as they wait on their GDP numbers. Ahead of another big round of earnings and economic reports, US futures point to modest gains at the open. Expect volatility to remain elevated as we slide into the weekend.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
This Friday, we have just over 110 companies reporting. Notable reports include ABBV, BAH, CAT, CHTR, DVX, CHD, CL, D, E, XOM, FCAU, GT, ITW, IYB, MELI, MRK, NWL, NOK, PSX, PINS, TIF, UAA, VFC, & WPC.
News & Technical’s
After the worst GDP reading in history, big tech surprised investors with blowout earnings results. According to reports, the four tech giants added over 200 billion in valuation Thursday afternoon. With a considerable increase in iPhone and iPad sales, it would seem a substantial amount of the stimulus checks went directly to buy new tech devices. Maybe the biggest surprise is that the futures after such an impressive tech performance show bullishness but somewhat muted in response. Perhaps it’s the infighting of Congress as they haggle over the new stimulus bill, the rising virus death toll, or the US/China tensions as Moderna experiences another cyber attack to steal details on the vaccine. The one thing I think we can continue to count on is that this earnings season will continue to deliver surprises, and price action will likely remain volatile.
Although we experienced some significant selling yesterday morning that pushed the Dow briefly below its 50-day moving average, there was little to no technical damage left behind in the indexes by the end of the day. The bulls showed their strength defending price support levels, and the bears can’t seem to sustain an attach longer than a couple of hours. I hate even to bring this up, but with the muted futures response this morning, should we consider the possibility of a so-called sell the news event? Maybe? However, I will have to stay with the current trend and bullish patterns for now. Today will get a reading on the Personal Income and Outlays and Consumer Sentiment with industrials and oil front and center on the earnings calendar.
Markets gapped down on the 33% Q2 GDP contraction and unexpected rising jobless claims. However, after a half-hour of follow-through, the bulls stepped back in and rallied stocks until 1 pm. The rest of the day was a tight-range grind sideways. This left the SPY down 0.36%, the DIA down 0.84%, and the QQQ up 0.52% on the day. The VXX climbed 2% to 29.20 while T2122 fell to 73.94. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.548% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2% to $40.41/barrel. Yet, despite all this on the day, the main characteristics for the last week have been consolidation and chop.
After the close AAPL, AMZN, FB, and GOOG all reported strong beats. With their mega-caps, this will surely drive markets higher at least at the open Friday. AMZN’s surge in sales and profit was expected with all the pandemic online buying but it was still impressive. AAPL’s beat was much larger than expected with a major beat on iPhone sales to give them a record quarter. They also announced a 4-for-1 stock split as on August 24. It is also worth noting the FB beat on ad revenue despite the advertising boycott, though they did mention that it could have an impact for Q3.
In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,635,226 confirmed cases and 155,306 deaths. With new cases came in at 68,569 Thursday (above the 7-day average) and deaths remained high at 1,465 (far above the 7-day average). Several states had record new cases confirmed Thursday, but not the usual suspects. This time it was states such as MO that set records. However, FL had almost 10,000, TX almost 9,000, and CA almost 8,200 as they still lead in actual new case count. In a virus-impact story, after the close, S&P said that over 150 firms that received PPP loans are planning layoffs. This is only based on layoff notices and does not include all states. 44% of the layoffs are described as “permanent” with 22% more “unclassified.”
Globally, the number of cases has reached 17,505,359 confirmed cases and 677,459 deaths. In Latin America, Argentina reported its highest number of infections and deaths on Thursday. Meanwhile, Brazil continues to see large numbers with another 58,000 new cases. Closer to home, Mexico In Asia, the outbreaks in Japan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, India, and Australia. China also reports a 3rd straight day of the new outbreak, but they have a stricter measure than we do, as they mean over 100 cases, not tens of thousands.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again, with Australia down 2% and Japan down almost 3%. However, Shenzhen was up over 1.3% and Shanghai up 0.7% as Chinese Factory Data beat expectations. The remainder of Asian Market moves were modest and probably leaned to the red. In Europe, markets are also mixed, but lean much more heavily to the green side. The 3 major bourses all have very modest moves so far, with the FTSE flat, CAC up a quarter percent, and the DAX up six-tenths at this point in the day. This all comes as Eurozone GDP fell 12.1% in Q2. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to one percent gap up in the QQQ, but the DIA and SPY are just on the green side of flat.
The major economic news for Friday includes June PCE, Q2 Employment Cost, and June Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am). The major earnings reports include ABBV, AON, BAH, BERY, CAT, CBRE, CHD, CHTR, CL, CVX, D, GT, HRC, IMO, ITW, JCI, LHX, LYB, MRK, NWL, PBF, PEG, PSX, SNA, SPB, TU, VFC, WY, and XOM all before the open. INTU is the only major earnings after the close.
The consolidation and back-and-forth chop continued again Thursday. However, the mega-tech earnings blowouts should give the bulls some energy early today. Vaccine manufacturers continue to rack up major contracts as Japan and the US both signed major deals. So that industry’s stocks should get a boost. However, remember that despite the swings, nothing has really changed in the trend or chart. The trend remains bullish and the chart remains consolidating.
Continue to keep an eye on those mega-cap FAANG stocks as our “canary in the coalmine.” Stick to your rules. Follow the trend, don’t predict reversals or chase missed-moves, and always take profits as you go. Remember, our job is to make our goal consistently, not to win the lottery on one trade. And don’t forget it’s Friday, so lock-in some profits ahead of the weekend spin cycle.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: CWH, LOGI, FAST, XLK, AA, CRWD, ABT, KRE, COF. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
