Ahead of the Employment Situation report, U.S. futures see nothing but bullishness, pushing for more record highs at the open. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that the pandemic, which is shutting down business all over the country, has not yet trickled into employment. The NASDAQ set its 47th new high record for the year in yesterday’s bull run even as hospitalizations reach critical capacity issues and the death toll surges. Have a plan just in case the market suddenly decides to care because it’s a long way to the daily 50-moving average.
Asian markets closed Friday trading mixed as SMIC shares plunge in Hong Kong after the Pentagon blacklisting. European market trade cautiously higher focused on U.S. stimulus efforts and Brexit issues. With a light day on the earnings calendar, the U.S. futures point to more recording highs ahead of the government’s reading on employment.
Economic Calendar
Economic Calendar
We have a light day on the Friday earnings calendar. Notable reports include BIG & GCO.
News and Technicals’
Bulls remain large and in charge, with the Nasdaq making it 47th new record high this year. News that suggested distribution issues with the new Phizer vaccine created a wild whipsaw near the end of the day. That said, the current market shakes off any concerning news, and the bulls rush back, bidding up already stretched and high priced stocks. Biden is endorsing the latest Covid stimulus deal saying it’s a good start, which would suggest even more deficit spending is on the way in his administration. A lot is riding on the 900 billion stimulus package success as Congress rushes to avoid a government shutdown on December 11th. In a surprising move, Warner Media announced that all scheduled 2021 new movies would simultaneously release to movie theaters and the HboMax.com streaming service. A massive blow to the theater business and a reminder of how the pandemic is reshaping the business landscape. Not that market cares, but there were more than 210,000 new infections reported yesterday and nearly 3000 deaths as hospitalizations soar, straining healthcare capacity. Also, in the news, the Pentagon blacklists China chipmaker SMIC and oil producer CNOOC in a reaction to a long history of Chinese espionage complaints.
Trends are most certainly bullish, and although all my trades are long positions, I’m becoming more and more concerned about the overextension I see so many stocks. Trade with the trend but guard yourself against overtrading and chasing already extend stocks. As yesterday’s vaccine news triggered the end of the day, whipsaw reminds us just how sensitive this market is and how quickly significant profits can disappear.
On Thursday, all 3 major indices put in indecisive Doji-like candles at the all-time highs, but failing to great out of resistance. Even the lower than expected Initial Jobless Claims number did not help. On the day the SPY was on the red side of flat (-0.03%), the QQQ on the green side of flat (+0.14%), and the DIA was mildly positive (+0.28%). The VXX rose just under one percent to 17.41 and T2122 rose again to 91.16, deep in overbought territory. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.911% and Oil (WTI) rose a bit to $45.65/barrel.
The DOJ sued FB Thursday, claiming the company has been discriminating against American workers by reserving 2,600 high-wage jobs for only foreign temporary visa holders. PFE stock was also fell when a report came out the company only expects to ship only half (50 mil. doses vs. 100 mil.) of the Covid-19 vaccine that was originally planned and promised by year end. The cause was said to be “supply chain problems” (raw materials that were not below standard). After hours, the Pentagon blacklisted 4 Chinese firms, including SMIC and CNOOC (adding them to the same list a Hauwei).
On the stimulus front, House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader McConnell met to further discuss stimulus Thursday. McConnell said afterward that there were hopeful signs of reaching a deal before year-end. While McConnell still claims to back only half the amount the Democrats and a bipartisan Senate group propose, the main sticking point seems to be McConnell’s insistence the bill include blanket Covid-related liability waivers for businesses
Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 14,532,196 confirmed cases and 282,829 deaths. Thursday saw another record 218, 576 new cases and 2,918 deaths. That said, the 7-day average of new cases is at 176,145 while deaths are averaging deaths rise to 1,876/day. CA expanded on the Los Angeles lockdown, implementing regional “Stay at home” orders in areas of the state where the remaining ICU bed capacity has fallen below 15% of normal.
Globally, the numbers rose to 65,664,051 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,514,619 deaths. In Asia, Hong Kong reports it is undergoing a “fourth wave” and Seoul South Korea is increasing restrictions in the city to fight what the Mayor reports is a “desperate crisis” as the country reported the highest increase in cases since March. Elsewhere, Tokyo reports that COVID-19 has raised the budget for the Olympics from $2.7 billion to $15.3 billion.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. South Korea (+1.31%) and Taiwan (+1.11%) led the gainers. Losses were more modest and Japan (-0.22%) and Malaysia (-0.39%) are typical of the losses. In Europe, markets are almost green across the board. Only the DAX (-0.16%) has failed to “get with the bull program” so far today. The FTSE (+0.82%) and CAC (+0.36%) are typical with no exchange moving one percent yet. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to modestly higher open. The DIA is implying a gain of 0.48%, The SPY a 0.38% higher open, and the QQQ a 0.33% open up. However, remember we have a lot of data between now and the open.
The major economic news for Friday includes Imports/Exports, Nov. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Nov. Nonfarm Payroll, Nov. Participation Rate, Oct. Trade Balance, Nov. Unemployment Rate, and Q-on-Q Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am), and Oct. Factory Orders (10 am). There is also a Fed Speaker (Bowman at 10 am). Major earnings are limited to BIG before the open. There are no major reports after the close.
A big economic news day and hope related to stimulus talks are likely to call the tune at least early on in the day. At this point, we seem to be following Europe with an implied move to the upside. Regardless, keep in mind that we are at all-time highs, in an overbought market, and this is Friday. So, even if you don’t want to avoid weekend news cycle risk, there is a possibility that others will by day end. Just be careful.
As always, don’t predict reversals (the trend is your friend until it is broken), but also don’t chase moves you missed. Respect support and resistance, the trend, and price action. Remain disciplined to your trading rules. Keep booking those singles and doubles. It’s the profits you take that pay the bills, not bragging rights of picking the very top.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SBUX, LPX, T, UAA, PINS, CMCSA, TUP, KO. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
New records were set yesterday as the bulls continue their relentless drive higher. The SP-500 inked a new all-time high at the same time pandemic hospitalizations topped 100,000, and the daily death toll set a new record of more than 3100. However, the hopefulness of another $900 billion stimulus and record-setting holiday consumer spending continues to inspire higher and higher stock valuations even as the Beige Book suggests the economy is slowing. Let’s party like it’s 1999 but stay focused because a pullback could begin at any time.
Asian markets traded mixed but mostly higher overnight as they reported growing services activity. European markets trade cautiously this morning, currently showing mixed results. U.S futures also appear a bit cautious this morning ahead of earnings reports and Jobless Claims.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have a busy day on the Thursday earnings calendar. Notable reports include DG, KR, CM, COO, CVRL, DLTH, EXPR, KIRK, LE, MRVL, MIK, OLLI, SIG, SWBI, TLYS, TD, ZUMZ.
News & Technicals’
While we have a growing hopefulness of a bipartisan toned-down stimulus bill, the pandemic’s impacts continue to hit new records. Pelosi and Schumer have made concessions backing a $900 billion stimulus plan rather than the $2.2 Trillion plan that failed to gain traction. With a government threat of a government shutdown on December 11th and a Congressional recess just around the corner, there is not much time to get a deal passed. Yesterday, Congress unanimously passed a bill requiring Chinese companies to adhere to U.S accounting practices or face delisting from U.S. indexes. I suspect it will quickly be signed into law by the president. There may be some tough decisions for investors holding Chinese stocks and could easily create considerable volatility in their price action. Los Angeles issued a stay at home order yesterday as hospitalizations continue to spike around the country and the daily death toll hit a new daily record of more than 3100. The Chief of the CDC says the next few months could be the most difficult in U.S. history, and yesterday Beige Book hinted that the economy is slowing as a result. Keep that in mind as we continue to ignore impacts stretching the indexes higher, setting new record highs.
Technically speaking, the index trends remain incredibly bullish, and the ravenous appetite for high priced stocks continues unabated. Indeed, the record-setting holiday spending and the hopefulness of another stimulus deal could trigger a Santa Claus rally but be careful not to chase or overtrade should we suddenly decide to acknowledge the economic impacts of debit and the pandemic.
All 3 major indices gapped modestly lower at the open Wednesday on concern over stimulus and a lower than expected ADP Payroll Number (25% miss). However, the bulls stepped in and put in nice white candles for the day on talks between Democrats and Republicans over potential stimulus. The SPY and QQQ both closed at new all-time high closes and the DIA is not far off. On the day the DIA gained 0.24%, the SPY gained 0.21%, and the QQQ gained 0.13%. The VXX was flat at 17.30 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) fell 7%, but remains overbought at 86.24. 10-year bond yields rose again to 0.939% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.5% to $45.19/barrel.
CNBC reported some major economic news Wednesday. It reported that the country’s largest shipper UPS had halted package pickup Monday from many of the nation’s largest retailers, because it is experiencing system capacity problems. In part, this may be due to the shift to online shopping causing increased demand and perhaps made worse by retailers pushing discounts earlier than Black Friday in an attempt to drive more volume to ecommerce (thus “stuffing the pipe” as it were). Regardless of cause, this is a huge problem heading into holiday season and is impacting companies like NKE, GPS, LB, M, etc. UPS refused comment on whether losses of workers due to the virus had any impact. Regardless, the virus is having an impact as UPS is gearing up to ship vaccines as it has diverted resources to build ultra-freezer units within its network.
On the stimulus front, three was quite a bit of action during the day. House Majority Leader Hoyer met with Senate Majority Leader McConnell to discuss stimulus for the second time this week. A leak from that meeting said they are hoping to pass a combined stimulus and stop-gap government funding bill (to avoid a shutdown) by late next week. In the Meantime, House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Schumer said that they believe the bi-partisan $908 billion bill introduced in the Senate earlier this week should be the basis for negotiations. This comes down over a trillion dollars from their previous position, but remains over $400 billion above what McConnell wants. However, markets may be happy that at least they are talking again.
Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 14,314,265 confirmed cases and 279,867 deaths. Wednesday saw almost 204,000 new cases and over 3,000 new deaths (both record highs). That said, the 7-day average of new cases is at 167,640 while deaths are averaging deaths rise to 1,658/day. The national number of virus hospitalizations topped 100,000 for the first time on Wednesday. Los Angeles Mayor (and county), the most populous county in the country issued a 3-week “stay at home” order during the day. He urged residents to “cancel everything” in hope that after 3-weeks the lockdown can be lifted just days before Christmas.
Globally, the numbers rose to 64,985,212 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,502,253 deaths. In Europe, the UK has Health Minister has said the PFE vaccine will begin distribution (actual jabs) as soon as Monday. He also said he hopes the AZN vaccine will also be available by Christmas. Not to be outdone, Russia has announced it will open mass vaccination centers (using their own freeze-dried vaccine) in Moscow the weekend. Germany extended restrictions through at least January 10 as they struggle to contain the surge. In Asia, Japan reported the biggest increase in new cases since early May.
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green on generally very modest moves. The exceptions were Malaysia (+1.85%) and Thailand (+1.44%). In Europe, the opposite is true as markets are mostly red so far Thursday. Most have moved only modestly, but there are a few showing momentum to the downside. The FTSE (-0.04%) is flat, but the DAX (-0.42%) and CAC (-0.24%) are much more typical. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a loss of 0.10%, the SPY a loss of 0.04%, and the QQQ a gain of 0.20% at this point in the premarket.
The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am), Nov. Services PMI (9:45 am), and Nov. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am). Major earnings releases include CBRL, DG, DCI, GMS, KR, MIK, SIG, and TD before the open. Then after the close, COO, MRVL, SAIC, and ULTA report.
Hope related to stimulus talks (Mr. Market loves him some government money)are fighting the virus surge. This likely means Jobless Claims will have the deciding vote in influencing the open. Either way, we remain at all-time highs, in a volatile situation, and the market is still overbought. So be careful.
Don’t predict reversals (the trend is your friend until it is broken) and don’t chase moves you missed. As always, respect support/resistance, the trend, and price action. Maintain that discipline to your trading rules. Keep booking those singles and doubles. Leave “swinging for the fence” to the amateurs. Profits pay the bills, not bragging rights.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CGC, SNAP, BA, NIO, UBER, PSX, DKNG, SPR. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
All 3 major indices gapped higher about a percent to new all-time highs on Tuesday. However, from there we saw divergence and a different reaction. The SPY ran up and then sold off to leave an ugly high-wick Shooting Star type of candle. The DIA ran and then sold off hard closing near the lows to print an ugly high-wick, black candle. At the same time QQQ formed sort of a big-body Spinning Top closing at the all-time high close. On the day SPY gained 1.05%, the QQQ gained 1.28%, and DIA gained 0.60% (on the gap up alone). The VXX rose about a percent to close at 17.34 and T2122 climbed again to remain deep into overbought territory at 92.66. 10-year bond yields spiked all the way up to 0.929% and Oil (WTI) fell nearly 2 percent to $44.55/barrel.
After the close, CRM announced it has bought WORK for $26.79/share and .0776 shares of CRM. At the same time, CRM beat estimates on their earnings reports, but soft forward guidance caused an post-market selloff. In other corporate news TSLA gapped up over 5% on its first day in the S&P, but sold off to close up 3.10%. HPE also announced it is moving out of Silicon Valley and will relocate the company HQ to Houston.
On the stimulus front, a bipartisan group of Senators announced a $908 billion relief plan. This plan was almost immediately shot down as a non-starter by Majority Leader McConnell. However, McConnell is passing a revised version of his earlier $500 billion plan among Republican colleagues. In the meantime, House Speaker Pelosi and Minority Leader Schumer sent a revised Democratic plan to their GOP counterparts. Neither McConnell nor Pelosi announced any details of their plans or how they might differ from the previously proposed plans. Both sides are espousing “hope” a deal can be done, but neither side is expressing optimism. In the meantime, Fed speakers (including Chair Powell in testimony Tuesday) continue to express concern about the uncertainty in the economy and a strong need for more stimulus.
Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 14,108,606 confirmed cases and 276,979 deaths. Tuesday saw over 182,000 new cases and 2,614 new deaths (catch-up day from holiday maybe). That said, the 7-day average of new cases fell to 164,488 while deaths are averaging deaths rise to 1,580/day. The White House vaccine Czar Slaoui reported that only 15% of patients experience significant side effects from the PFE and MRNA vaccines. No additional context was offered other than it compares to 150,000-200,000 people getting infected and 1,500-2,000 people dying from the virus each day. In other vaccine news, the CDC voted 13-1 to name front-line health workers and then care homes as the priority for receiving the vaccine. The US government also announced overnight that it will pay for “dry ice” and iceboxes to store the PFE-BNTX vaccine for jurisdictions that don’t have an ultra-cold freezer. This will let the vaccine be stored and used for up to 15 days.
Globally, the numbers rose to 64,325,885 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,489,788 deaths. In Europe, the UK has given temporary approval for the PFE-BTNX vaccine and the Health Minister has said it can start being distributed next week. Elsewhere in Europe, Germany reported a record daily death toll, France has reinstituted border checks (to prevent French Skiers from returning home without a 7-day quarantine) and Russia will present its freeze-dried vaccine (which requires no refrigeration) to the United Nations today. In Asia, Japan reported a near-record number of cases, but also a record number of patients in intensive care. Perhaps not wanting to miss out on the race/news cycle, China has shown reporters its large climate-controlled warehouse filled with vaccine. They claimed they are ready to ship millions of doses of Chinese-made vaccines to 16 countries as soon as regulators in those countries approve the medicines. Among these are Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, UAE, and Indonesia.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Indonesia (+1.56%) and South Korea (+1.58%) were dramatic outliers as most Asian exchanges closed near and on either side of flat. In Europe, markets are also mixed but lean more to the modestly red side. The only significant gainer is Greece (+1.35%), however, most are modestly lower at this point. The FTSE (+0.28%) is leading, but the DAX (-0.34%) and CAC (-0.20%) are much more typical. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modestly lower open. The DIA is implying a loss of 0.41%, the SPY a loss of 0.25%, and the QQQ a loss of 0.24% at this point in the premarket.
The major economic news for Wednesday includes Nov. ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (8:15 am), Factory Orders (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and the Fed Beige Book (2 pm). There are also 2 Fed speakers (Quarles at 9 am and Chair Powell testifies at 10 am). Earnings reports are limited to PDCO and RY before the open. After the close GHLD, PVH, SPLK, and SNPS report.
Yesterday, we saw the bulls step in to start the month (maybe aided by stimulus hope and TSLA joining the S&P). However, we printed very indecisive candles at best. So, there was no follow-through. This comes as we sit at or near all-time highs and the market remains very overextended. Don’t predict and for heaven’s sake don’t chase moves you missed. As always, respect the trend, support/resistance, and price action. Maintain that discipline to your trading rules. Keep booking those singles and doubles. Leave “swinging for the fence” to the amateurs. Profits pay the bills, not bragging rights.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NBR, CMCSA, AG, QCOM, VRT, VG, CELH. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
After a brief rest, the bulls are back in a big way, reversing price action overnight to challenge recent record highs. Jerome Powell says the economy is ‘extraordinarily uncertain,’ but looking at the charts’ price action, it would seem there is no price too high for investors. So let the party continue but be very aware of the risk should the markets decide to test price support levels. Remain diligent in your trade planning and avoid the chase with a fear of missing out.
Overnight Asian markets were higher across the board after reporting that China’s manufacturing hit a 10-year high. European markets are surging higher this morning as Pfizer and BioTech both apply for vaccine approvals. Ahead of earnings, ISM, and Powell comments the bulls are stampeding higher this morning, suggesting a Dow reversal of 300 points when writing this report.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We a busier day on the Tuesday economic calendar. Notable reports include CRM, BMO, VNS, BOX, HEP, NTAP, & TCOM.
News and Technicals’
This morning, there is not much to say except that after a brief Cyber Monday rest, the bulls are back on the gas with a significant overnight reversal to test recent market highs. Pfizer and BioTech both apply for vaccine approval in Europe, and it seems as long as we can matain vaccine headlines, the market reacts bullishly. Powell will be speaking again today, defending the Cares Act provisions and calling the economic outlook ‘extraordinarily uncertain.’ However, after a historic November, the bulls appear unconcerned, and no price seems too high as P/E ratios continue to stretch out. Perhaps with Amazon reporting that holiday shopping this year was the biggest in history suggests we move right into the Santa Claus rally.
I mentioned a couple of times yesterday the there was no fear in yesterday’s selloff and the technical patterns in the indexes remained bullish. However, when a 400 point selloff in the Dow is insignificant, it’s also a warning of just dangerous it could quickly become to traders that chase already extended stock prices. Let the party continue but be diligent in your trade planning, taking trades with acceptable risk to a stop and avoiding the chase with a fear of missing out.
Large-caps gapped lower at the open and sold off all morning on Monday. This gave way to a sideways grind near the lows most of the afternoon. However, a late-day rally brought price up off the lows by the close. Meanwhile, the QQQ followed the same pattern in the morning. However, it rallied from 11 am all the way into the close to post a small gain on the day. All 3 major indices printed indecisive Hammer or Hanging Man type candles for the day. As of 4 pm, the SPY lost 0.40%, DIA lost 0.80%, and QQQ gained 0.20%. It should be noted that the market closed the month of November with massive gains (35% in the large-caps). The VXX fell almost 2% to 17.18 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) fell a bit, but remains in overbought territory at 89.72. 10-year bond yields rose very slightly to 0.845% and Oil (WTI) fell a percent to $45.09/barrel.
AMZN followed up on what retail industry analysts reported Monday. They said that so far, this year’s holiday shopping has been the biggest period in their history. Analysts went on to say they think AMZN could capture as much as 42% of all buying over the holiday (obviously a massive number). By comparison, retail foot traffic was down 52% this year on the Black Friday weekend.
In European news, PFE and BNTX have filed for European approval of their vaccine. Meanwhile the Euro Zone has agreed to strengthen its virus crisis fund, which CNBC reports has been a long-awaited move to address investor concerns. The move increases the role the fund will play in designing the bailout programs needed in member countries. This is more in-line with the Northern (i.e. Germany, Austria) fiscal conservatism and less in-line with the Southern (i.e. Italy, Greece) high-debt government. The fund will be taking over the arbiter role previously played by the EC, ECB, and IMF.
On the virus front itself, infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 13,920,038 confirmed cases and 274,332 deaths. That said, the 7-day average of new cases fell to 162,853 while deaths are averaging deaths rise to 1,517/day. HHS Sec. Azar said Monday that, assuming no hitches, the first US vaccinations could come by Christmas. Dr. Fauci (NIH) told CNN he is urging Americans to be ready and to get vaccinated as soon as the vaccine is available to their priority group and region. He went on to explain that if we can get 80% or more of the country vaccinated, we can achieve herd immunity and get back to normal by Q2 or Q3 of 2021. However, if only 40%-50% of the population get vaccinated, we will not and restrictions and mitigation will still be needed.
Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board. Malaysia (+2.53%), Shanghai (+1.77%), and South Korea (+1.66%) led the way, but it was a strong showing throughout the region. In Europe, markets are mostly green so far today. The FTSE (+1.91%) is leading, but the DAX (+0.92%), and CAC (+1.02%) are also strong. The only red on the continent is in smaller exchanges like Denmark (-0.26%) and Portugal (-0.21%). As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a gap higher at the open. The DIA is implying a gain of 1.02%, the SPY a gain of 0.98%, and the QQQ a gain of 0.89% at this point.
The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to Nov. Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), Nov. ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am), and two Fed speakers (Chai Powell at 10 am and Brainard at noon). Major earnings reports on the day are limited to BMO, BNS, and MOMO before the open. Then after the close HPE, LU, NTAP, CRM, and TCOM report.
The bulls seem to want to get December off to a strong start. With little economic news or earnings reports, the market may be in a position to move. However, also expect sector-specific strength or weakness. For example, the recent news does not bode well for retailers, while online commerce plays may be very strong in this environment.
Once again, we sit at or near all-time highs and the market remains very overextended by most counts. However, as we all know, it doesn’t pay to fight the trend (even when it seems overdone). So, don’t predict. As always, respect the trend, support/resistance, and price action. Don’t chase moves you have missed (there will be another opportunity) and maintain discipline to your trading rules. Keep booking those singles and doubles. Leave “swinging for the fence” to the amateurs. Profits pay the bills, not bragging rights.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SONO, AAPL, ALGN, FAST, MRVL, TXN, GLW, FSLY, PINS, DKNG, WMT. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Although retail is celebrating a colossal holiday consumer spending spree that set new records, small business sentiment dropped to a new record low. The consumer spending would suggest more market upside on the way in the so-call Santa Claus rally. However, with the SP-500 more than 60% above the March low in the face of pandemic economic impacts, a rest or pullback would not be a big surprise.
Asian markets closed the day modestly lower overnight after reporting a 7-month streak of manufacturing growth. European markets trade mixed but mostly flat this morning, seemingly taking a rest on this last day of November. The U.S. futures point to mixed open with a possible light volume day with traders likely extending holiday vacations and the distraction of Cyber Monday sales.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On this last day of November, we have a light day of earnings reports. Going through the list, I don’t see any that are particularly notable.
News and Technicals’
According to retail reports, holiday shopping hit new spending records, which is likely to continue with the Cyber Monday sales event today. Don’t be surprised if volumes remain low as many will be distracted surfing the internet to bag a few deals. On the bright side, such a strong showing of consumer spending could spark the so-called Santa Claus Rally into the end of the year. Unfortunately, small business confidence seems to be going in the other direction, dropping to an all-time low according to the Q4 CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey. The results show that 53% of small business owners say they expect tax policy & increased government regulation will negatively impact their business. With small businesses as one of the largest job creators, this negative sentiment could see employment numbers struggle in a post-pandemic recovery.
Interestingly the futures don’t seem inspired by the colossal holiday buying spree pointing to a pullback in the pre-market. However, with the SP-500 up more than 60% since the March bottom to set new records despite unemployment and a severely damaged economy, perhaps a rest is not that big of a surprise. Bullish trends remain, but there’s a danger with index prices so elevated from their respective 50-day averages. That said, plan carefully, and don’t be surprised if the volume is a bit light today with traders extending vacations to shop.
Large-caps gapped about a third of a percent higher while the QQQ gapped up six-tenths of a percent at the open Friday. Some roller-coaster volatility action all 3 markets closed near the open to print indecisive Doji-like candle on the shortened day. For the session the SPY gained 0.28% (as the S&P500 closed at an all-time high), DIA gained 0.17%, and QQQ gained 0.92%. The VXX was up slightly to 17.51 and T2122 fell a percent but remains deep in overbought territory at 95.76. 10-year bonds fell to 0.842% and Oil (WTI) fell to $45.52/barrel.
Reports came from coast to coast that Black Friday shopping foot traffic was down dramatically (over 53%). Many analysts claim the virus has accelerated the move from brick-and-mortar to online shopping, but it is worth noting that retail analysts also tell us Black Friday online sales were only up 22%. So, overall sales seem to be down 30% year-on-year on the biggest shopping day of the year. On one other interesting note, Shopify reports that 71% of online sales now ome from a mobile device.
On the vaccine front, MRNA sys new data shows their vaccine is 94% effective, 100% effective in preventing severe cases, and they have enough safety data to ask for approval. They plan to file their approval request and data later today. In the meantime, the first shipment of the PFE-BTNX joint-venture vaccine has arrived in the US and will enter the special “extreme cold” distribution system. The first vaccinations using the PFE-BTNX cavvine could come as soon as the next 2 weeks.
On the virus front itself, infections continue to rage as the US. The US numbers are thrown off a bit by 20 states that have not reported data since Wednesday, which means we will also see a “catch-up spike” in the next day or so. At any rate, US totals have risen to 13,751,337 confirmed cases and 273,101 deaths. That said, the 7-day average of new cases fell to 163,649 while deaths are averaging deaths rise to 1,481/day. 26 states report a record number of hospitalizations. Dr. Birx (White House Task Force) urged Thanksgiving travelers to get a test and self-isolate in a plea aimed at minimizing another super-spreader holiday. This is likely to fall on deaf ears as over 6 million Americans traveled for Thanksgiving despite cautions. Ominously, Dr. Fauci (NIH) told the press Sunday that restrictions will be needed for Christmas and New Year’ s Day based on what was seen at Thanksgiving.
Globally, the numbers rose to 63,172,024 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,467,129 deaths. In Europe, the UK reports that infections dropped 30% so far during their second lockdown. This falls in-line with PM Johnson announcing that the quarantine will end this week and be replaced with a national tier system by region. In Asia, Japan and South Korea report daily spikes again, with the latter will impose tighter restrictions as a result. Other countries like Indonesia are reporting record case counts. Even North Korea is admitting problems as it imposed very tight border restrictions with China in an effort to reduce new cases.
Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board. Hong Kong (-2.06%), South Korea (-1.60%) led the losses among major economies. However, Indonesia (-2.96%) and Malaysia (-2.79%) were the worst hit. China reported better than expected PMI numbers on Sunday. In Europe, markets are mixed so far today. Russia (-1.07%) and Denmark (+1.06%) are outliers. Among the big 3 exchanges, the FTSE is flat (+0.15%), the DAX up (+0.49%), and CAC (-0.13%) flat. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a mixed open. The DIA is implying a fall of 0.41%, the SPY a fall of 0.20%, and the QQQ to a slight gap higher (+0.29%).
The major economic news for Monday is limited to Core PCE Price index (7:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), and Oct. Pending Home Sales (10 am). Major earnings reports on the day are limited to ADNT before the open. Then after the close ZM reports.
This is the first day back after what, for many, was an extra-long weekend. So, we might see increased activity. Also, keep in mind that today is month-end. With little economic news or earnings reports, the market may be in a position to move. However, reports indicate Black Friday was a flop for retailers this year. That may weigh on at least the retail names.
We sit at or near all-time highs and the market is overextended by most counts. However, Mr. Market can remain overbought longer than you can take the pain of predicting reversals. So, don’t predict. As always, respect the trend, support/resistance, and price action. Don’t chase moves you have missed (there will be another opportunity) and stick with your trading rules. Our job as traders is consistency, not hitting home runs.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: REGI, SDGR, GKOS, TLRY, GNUS, DAR, CDAY, EVRI, TSM, PINS, DVAX, NTRA. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
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|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
