The Dow set a new record high with a last-minute surge as the dark pool activity consolidated to the market.  Both the DIA and SPY are in good technical condition, while the QQQ struggles in a downtrend.  With a light day on the earnings and economic calendar, the market may be a bit more sensitive to the news cycle today.  According to the VIX, fear is finally declining, but as traders can attest, the wild whipsaws in price action remain challenging.  Plan your risk carefully as that condition is likely to continue.

Asian market closed higher in a volatile session with Nomura shares plunging 16% due to a U.S. hedge fund.  Credit Suisse is also sliding sharply across the pond as European markets trade modestly higher with the U.K. relaxing pandemic restrictions.  The U.S. futures point to a lower open this morning but are well off of overnight lows.  Be careful chasing, and don’t be surprised if overnight lows receive a test as support. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

To kick off the last 3-days of the quarter, we have 69 companies listed on the earnings calendar, with a large number of them unconfirmed.  The only verified potential notable report is from CALM.

News and Technicals’

With an end-of-day surge as the dark pool trading consolidated to the market, the DIA reached a new record high, and the SPY cleared some price resistance.  President Biden is under pressure considerable pressure with more than 100,000 illegal immigrants crossed the border in February.  Biden is also intending to push for the 4 trillion dollar infrastructure plan before moving on to his next phase of health and family care.  Let’s hope we don’t run out of ink to keep printing money!  A draft study jointly written by the WHO and China says animals are the likely source of the Covid outbreak.  While France and Germany face a deteriorating public health situation, the U.K. is relaxing its restrictions allowing up to six people to meet outdoors.  According to reports, the massive container ship stuck in the Suez Canal is not partially floated. Still, there is no indication of how long it will take to complete the operation and resume business. 

On the technical front, the indexes got a big shot in the arm in the last few minutes of trading.  The DIA managed a new record high by a few ticks, and the SPY lept above some concerning price resistance.  At the same time, the QQQ lagged, remaining in a downtrend, as did the IWM.  After another wild session, the VIX closed below a 19-handle, suggesting fear is diminishing, but clearly, the wild intraday whipsaw continues.  In this all-or-nothing market, the T2122 indicator went from an oversold to indicating a possible overbought condition in just two trading days.  As the morning pump begins, futures are well off of overnight lows but, as of now, suggest a lower open.  I suspect another wild week of price is ready to begin.

Trade Wisley,

Doug