Blog - Page 174 of 641 - Hit & Run Candlesticks

Earnings and Virus Jitters Lead News

January 22, 2021 by Ed Carter

Once again markets opened higher and after a day of indecisive trading, all 3 major indices closed an another all-time high close. As mentioned, all 3 put in indecisive Doji-like candles on the session. For the day, DIA was flat at +0.03%, SPY gained just 0.09%, but QQQ made a nice gain of 0.80%. The VXX lost eight-tenths of a percent to 16.18 and T2122 fell slightly, but remains in the overbought territory at 84.30. 10-year bonds rose to 1.109% and Oil (WTI) fell half a percent to $53.05/barrel.

On the report front after the close, IBM revenue missed on a continued slide for the fourth consecutive quarter. However, INTC reported a beat on top and bottom lines on a massive 33% surge in PC sales in the quarter. On the downside, INTC’s incoming CEO committed to the company continuing to do their own chip manufacturing. This is problematic because Intel have suffered years of manufacturing delays and operate at a higher cost than other chipmakers (like TSM).

In International trade news, the data shows that China purchased only 58% of the US goods they agreed to buy as part of former-President Trump’s “Phase One” settlement to the trade war. Meanwhile, in the UK, more post-Brexit trade news came out. This time a report finds that UK–EU freight traffic has dropped by 30% (both directions) since the first of the year. At the same time, logistics costs have risen 50% versus one year ago. Among the major issues is the new red tape. For example, the number of truck shipments rejected by the UK at the border has risen 168% versus January 2020. In addition, there are constant virus testing procedures on both sides of the border which cause delays.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 25,196,086 confirmed cases and 420,285 deaths. The number of new cases fell in 46 states Thursday as the average new cases has fallen to 191,652 new cases, but deaths remain high (4,363 on Thursday) at 3,176 per day. However, this must be taken with a grain of sale as states are suspect. MO was found to have not been reporting the results of rapid tests. This would have raised that state’s numbers by 644 just in January. Elsewhere, new CDC director Walensky contradicted the prediction of her predecessor who had said every pharmacy would have at least one of the vaccines available by the end of February. However, in good news, LLY announced that the phase 3 trial of their monoclonal antibody combination treatment was found to lower risk of contracting COVID-19 by up to 80%. While good news, the treatment is likely too expensive and scarce to use as a replacement for vaccinations.

Globally, the numbers rose to 98,188,110 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,102,744 deaths. As a reference, the world average new cases is down to 631,396 per day, but deaths remain high at 13,732 new deaths per day. The UK says it is considering total border closure to contain the spread of new variants of the virus. France will now require a negative PCR test from any travelers entering from other EU countries.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly bearish. Hong Kong (-1.60%), Indonesia (-1.66%), and Thailand (-1.03%) led, but losses were widespread. The only green was in India (+1.69%) and Shenzhen (+0.28%). Meanwhile, in Europe, so far today markets are red across the board on reports that EU economic activity has fallen to a two-month low in January, coupled with potential border closures in the UK. Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE (-0.78%), the DAX (-0.86%), and CAC (-1.12%) are all down at mid-day. However, the biggest moves are in the smaller countries/exchanges such as Athens (-2.44%). As of 7:30 am, US futures are following Europe and pointing toward a negative open. The DIA is implying a -0.83% open, while the SPY implies a -0.75% open, and the QQQ is implying a -0.62% open.

The major economic news for Friday includes Jan. Mfg. PMI and Jan. Services PMI (both at 9:45 am), Dec. Existing Home Sales (10 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (11 am). Major earnings reports include ALLY, FHN, HBAN, KSU, RF, and SLB before the open. There are no earnings reports after the close.

The markets look bearish this morning, perhaps pointing to some profit-taking at the highs or following Europe’s lead-based on virus-reduced economic activity. However, we do have a little more US data to come this morning, so don’t panic. Still, do bear in mind we are at all-time highs across the board and a bit extended to boot. The bottom line is that we need to be cautious at the highs, going into the weekend.

Lock in those profits when you achieve trade goals and stick with your discipline. As always, follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. There will be another trade. So, focus on the overall market, the specific chart, and your own trading process. Remember, trading is a long-term game. We don’t have to try to get rich every day.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: VIAC, KSS, JMIA, OSTK, SOLO, MRNA, FUBO. You can find Rick’s review of those tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

Market Celebrated

January 21, 2021 by Doug Campbell

With record highs across the board, the market celebrated strong earning and the administration change in the Whitehouse with the promise of more stimulus on the way. Though there is a chorus of investment banks suggesting higher market highs are on the way, some are suggesting a euphoric market bubble has formed. Who’s right? Your guess is as good as mine. The best we can do is plan carefully, avoid overtrading and stay with the trend as long as it lasts, but always remembering it will one day end.

Overnight Asian markets traded mostly higher, and European markets edge higher, keeping an eye on earnings data. U.S. futures point to a positive open with a busy day of earnings, economic and political news setting the stage for possible volatile price action.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have the biggest day of the week, with 43 companies on the list and 33 confirmed reports. Notable reports include INTC, BKR, CTXS, CSX, FITB, IBM, ISRG, KEY, MTB, PPG, STX, SIVB, TAL, TRV, & UNP.

News and Technicals’

The market celebrated the strong earnings and President Biden’s inauguration, setting new record highs set in all four indexes. He signed 17 executive orders yesterday and plans another 10 today addressing pandemic issues. Dr. Fauci says the U.S. will remain a WHO member and join the global Covid vaccine plan. Stock futures are once again edging higher this morning, with Godman, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan singing in chorus for higher valuation to come. However, not everyone feels that way, with Jeremy Grantham saying the market is in a bubble with very seldom seen euphoria levels. As a technical trader, all I can do is stay with the bullish trend until as long as it lasts, carefully planning risk, making sure to follow my trading plan rules, and avoiding overtrading with the existing extending market condition.

Setting new record highs across the board makes it easy to see that the bulls are large and in charge of the market trends. However, it is also easy to see a very extended market condition that poses a significant risk of a steep selloff that should cause the market to stumble. Take caution in trading stocks that extend from price supports. We have a big day earnings and economic data and a boatload of political news that has the potential to create significant price volatility. Plan carefully.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Earnings and Jobless Claims Lead

January 21, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher Wednesday on inauguration hopefulness. After the open, the bulls continued a steady sally the rest of the day. All 3 major indices closed at new all-time high closes and toward the top of their candles. On the day, the QQQ was up 2.33%, SPY was up 1.38%, and DIA closed up 0.79%. The VXX lost almost 2% to 16.31 and T2122 climbed deeper in the overbought territory at 92.82. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.077% and Oil (WTI) was up slightly to $53.24/barrel.

The Biden inauguration filled most of the day’s news cycle. However, the Democrats also took control of the Senate on the government front. Among the executive orders President Biden signed were the rejoining of the Paris Climate Agreement, rejoining the W.H.O., and a mask mandate covering all federal property and federally-regulated public transport. New White House Chief of Staff Klain also issued a memo freezing all last-minute changes former-President Trump tried to enact (such as dropping travel restrictions for Brazil and Europe).

A report from CINNO Research says that QCOM’s market share in China shrank over 48% year-on-year, due in large part to US sanctions on Huawei as well as Chinese smartphone makers looking to domestic sources as US-based companies were seen as unreliable due to the US Government intervention. QCOM’s Taiwanese competitor MediaTek was the big winner from this portion of the trade war.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 24,998,975 confirmed cases and 415,894 deaths. This comes as the average new cases has fallen to 197,041 new cases, but deaths remain high (Wed. had the 2^nd highest daily total at 4,374) at 3,140 per day. New CDC Director Walensky called for more testing and vaccinations on her first day. This came as NYC had to cancel 23,000 vaccination appointments due to a lack of vaccine.

Globally, the numbers rose to 97,403,475 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,085,744 deaths. As a reference, the world average new cases is down to 645,184 per day, but deaths remain high at 13,600 new deaths per day. In some great news for those who had worries, two new studies just published show that while the UK and South African mutations of Covid do evade some of the immunity provided by the PFE and MRNA vaccines, they do not evade all of the protection from the vaccine. In fact, enough of the immunity remains that the studies claim the vaccines do provide protection from those variants.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned bullish. Shenzhen (+1.53%), South Korea (+1.49%), and Shanghai (+1.07%) led the gainers. On the downside, India (-0.37%) and Malaysia (-0.42%) were the most notable losses. Meanwhile, in Europe, so far today markets are also mixed, but mostly higher. Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE +0.11% is flat, the DAX (+0.45%) is up, and the CAC (-0.17%) is down slightly. The biggest moves are in smaller exchanges such as Russia (-1.33%) and Belgium (+1.12%) at this point in the day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modestly higher open. The DIA is implying a +0.21% open, while the SPY implies a +0.26% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.46% open.

The only major economic news for Thursday is Dec. Building Permits, Dec. Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the Jan. Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports include BKR, FITB, KEY, MTB, TAL, TRV, TFC, and UNP before the open. Then after the close, CSX, INTC, IBM, PPG, STX, and SIVB report.

The markets look slightly bullish this morning and that is certainly where the trend points. However, we need to bear in mind we are at all-time highs across the board and extended to boot. President Biden is expected to invoke the Defense Production Act to ramp up vaccine production and distribution today. While this won’t likely have a major market impact, it may affect specific tickers. The bottom line is that we need to be cautious getting too far out on the bull limb since the indices may need rest after yesterday’s pop.

As always, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed. Lock in those profits when you achieve trade goals and stick with your discipline. Focus on the overall market, the specific chart, and your own trading process. Remember, trading is a long-term game. We don’t have to try to get rich every day.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CSIQ, TJX, SIX, UAA, JBHT, STNE, ADT, KIRK, WING, NET, AQN. You can find Rick’s review of those tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Inauguration Day

January 20, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Markets are bullish this Inauguration day as we swear in Joe Biden as the 46^th president of the United States. Though security is high in Washington D.C., most expect an uneventful transition of power. However, a light and choppy day of price action is possible after the morning rush of earnings fueled trading with traders distracted by the political festivities. As your plan your risk forward, keep in mind we have a busy economic calendar Thursday and Friday, not to mention the ramp-up in earnings reports.

Overnight Asian markets traded mixed but mostly higher as shares of Alibaba soar. European markets cautiously edge higher this morning earnings and inauguration in focus. U.S. futures point to a bullish open, with NASDAQ leading the pack on the back of the strong NFLX earings. Stay frosty as the price volatility is likely to ramp with earnings.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Hump Day earings calendar, we have 25 verified reports fessing up to quarterly results. Notable reports include AA, ASML, BK, CFG, DFS, FAST, KMI, MS, PG, USB, UAL, & UNH.

News & Technicals’

Coming back from the MLK holiday, the bulls went back to work with energy from earnings reports and hopefulness we will soon get another big round of stimulus. During confirmation hearings yesterday, Treasury secretary nominee Yellen stated that the country should act big in the next virus package to bolster the economy. After the bell, Netflix reported a solid quarter surprising and that it is not shrinking away from the challenge that the Disney streaming service provides. Today we have the inauguration of President Biden and transition of power. Biden plans to issue executive orders to rejoin the Paris climate accord and revoke the Muslim travel ban on his first day in office. It will not be a surprise if we see some light and choppy price action after the open with the inauguration ceremony’s political distraction.

Although the bulls came to work yesterday, they seemed to struggle a bit will overhead resistance. Perhaps a result of traders extending their holiday. With the big overnight move in NFLX, the QQQ will be the leader this morning and may well ink a new record high at the open as a result. The energy and financial sectors continue to fule the IWM higher yesterday, closing the day just short of a new record. Trends remain bullish, although the T2122 Indicator continues to warn of a short-term overextended condition. Stay with the trend but don’t become complacent as we stretch out to the upside.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Inauguration and Earnings

January 20, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up Tuesday after coming back from a long weekend and getting good pre-market earnings from the major banks, including a blow-out quarter from GS. After the gap up, the major indices traded indecisively with the QQQ being the strongest of the group. On the day, QQQ was up 1.46%, SPY up 0.79%, and DIA up 0.39%. VXX lost more than 2.75%, down to 16.63 and T2122 jumped back into the overbought territory at 85.41. 10-year bond yields were off slightly to 1.092% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.32% to close at $53.05/barrel.

During her confirmation hearings Tuesday afternoon, Treasury Sec. Nominee Yellen told Senators that the US can afford higher corporate taxes, but only after coming out of the Coronavirus slump and only in coordination with other countries. Specifically, she said tax rate action should be coordinated with other OECD to avoid “a destructive global race to the bottom on corporate taxation of multinationals.” She also defended the $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal by saying it offers the “most bang for the buck” in terms of relief for struggling households and businesses. Finally, she said the Biden Administration would support a strong and stable dollar (in direct contrast to the Trump who liked the idea of a weak dollar). The market did not respond to her testimony in any meaningful way.

Interest rates rose again in the last week (to a still-low 2.92% for a 30-year fixed mortgage), but remains almost a percent lower than it was one year ago. This came as new mortgage applications dropped almost 2% and refinance demand fell 5% on the week. It is worth noting that President Biden has proposed a $15,000 tax credit for first time home buyers to help bolster the home construction industry.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 24809,841 confirmed cases and 411,520 deaths. This comes as the average new cases have fallen to 204,228 new cases and deaths have flattened at 3,098 per day. The CDC reports that 13.6 million Americans have received at least one shot of the two required to date. This includes 2 million people who have received both doses. At the same time, distribution problems continue to plague the rollout. Several states are a few days from being out of the vaccine while more than 12 million doses are still in Federal hands, but not at the locations needed.

Globally, the numbers rose to 96,727,446 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,068,303 deaths. As a reference, the world average new cases is down to 656,402 per day, but deaths remain high at over 13,460 new deaths per day. In Europe, a third cabinet member of the Portuguese government has tested positive in just this week. Germany tightened restrictions (now mandating N95 mask-wearing in public) and extended the national lockdown until at least mid-February. UK Home Sec. Patel told reporters its far too early to think about easing lockdown measures. In China, a new outbreak has the country scrambling, including building a 4,000-bed isolation camp in just a week. This happens as China is seeing its worst outbreak in months and tens of millions of Chinese people have been put on strict lockdown in the North of the country.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly higher. Shenzhen (+1.42%), Hong Kong (+1.08%), and Indonesia (+1.71%) led the gainers. Notable losses include Japan (-0.38%) and Taiwan (-0.45%). Meanwhile, in Europe, so far today markets are also mostly higher on modest moves. Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE -0.03% is flat, the SAD (+0.47%) is up, and the CAC (+0.24%) is also positive. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a higher open. The DIA is implying a +0.15% open, while the SPY implies a +0.38% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.82% open.

The only major economic news for Wednesday is President Biden’s Inauguration and Speech (Crude Oil Inventories Report moved to Friday). Major earnings reports on the day include ASML, BK, CFG, FAST, MS, PG, USB and UNH all before the open. Then, after the close, AA, DFS, KMI, PLXS, and UAL report.

Markets seem to like the new administration and continue to aim toward record highs. With 25,000 troops plus thousands of Federal Law Enforcement on hand, protests, riots, or attacks at inauguration events seem unlikely. So, the bulls continue to have the edge as we look to the open. (It doesn’t hurt that Tres. Sec. Nominee Yellen was not given much pushback when she called to big action on the stimulus plan that Mr. Market loves.)

So, look for a bullish start to the day. As always, follow trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed. Lock in those profits when you achieve trade goals and stick with your discipline. Focus on the overall market, the specific chart, and your own trading process. Remember, trading is a long-term game. We don’t have to try to get rich every day.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: A technical snafu means no Trade Ideas for Wednesday, but they are in the video here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

1st Quarter Earnings

January 19, 2021 by Doug Campbell

All through the bears made a quick visit last Friday, the bullish trends remain, and according to the futures, the bulls are rested and ready to get back to work this morning. With the inauguration just around the corner and the ramp-up of 1^st quarter earnings, traders should expect an extra dose of price volatility in the days ahead. Although the market is very hopeful about the next round of stimulus, make sure you check earnings dates before making trading decisions. With so many stocks looking elevated, a disappointing earnings report could create painful selloffs. Plan carefully.

Asian markets traded mixed but mostly higher overnight, with the HIS surging 2.70% higher. European markets trade cautiously this morning, chopping around the flat-line. However, the bulls seem to be on a mission this morning, pointing to a gap up open ahead of earnings results. It would be wise to expect an extra dose of volatility as earnings ramp up.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We begin to ramp up the 1^st quarter earnings calendar with 20 companies reporting results. Notable reports include IBKR, NFLX, BAC, SCHW, CMA, GS, HAL, JBHT, LOGI, PETS, STT, & ZION.

New & Technicals’

Last Friday, big bank earnings beat estimates, but they all found a few sellers. Today we ramp earnings, but futures are currently staging a rally ahead of GS, and BAC reports this morning, with the first big tech report this afternoon coming from NFLX. With the change in power at the White House just around the corner, it’s possible we could experience a bit of price volatility with lower than usual volumes as the world watches. Although energy prices have seen a sharp rally recently, the IEA cut their oil demand outlook due to pandemic lockdown restrictions. Germany has discovered a new virus variant among 35 hospital patients. Though the outgoing Trump administration wants to lift travel ban restrictions, the Biden administration says they will keep Europe and Brasil restrictions in force.

Although we experienced a little bearish activity last Friday, overall uptrends held as support. This morning as we return to work after the MLK holiday, the bulls seem ready to resume their march higher, with the Dow futures suggesting a gap up of more than 150 points at that time of writing this report. BAC beat top-line estimates but fell short of revenue expectations, yet the stock is holding up in premarket trading. Higher unemployment, weak retail sales have not dampened the spirit of the bulls with the hope of more stimulus on the way, so perhaps earnings can be added to the list of things that don’t matter all that much in this environment. Keep an eye out for price volatility due to earnings and the transition of power in the Whitehouse.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bank Earnings and Better Forecasts

January 19, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down Friday on some bad economic data (Dec. Retail Sales miss lower than expected Producer Price Index, and NY Empire State Mfg. Index much lower than expected. Then all the major indices put in indecisive candles for the session. The QQQ put in a black Spinning Top type candle while the DIA and SPY printed Dojis. On the day, SPY lost 0.73%, DIA lost 0.62%, and QQQ lost 0.79%. The VXX gained 2.5% to 17.11 and T2122 fell back into the mid-range at 59.70. 10-year bond yields sold off strongly as traders bought into safety, ending at 1.087% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 3% to $52.04/barrel.

GS has raised their 2021 US Economic forecasts based on the $1.9 billion Biden stimulus plan. Among the changes are an increase in economic expansion forecast to 6.6% (vs. 6.4% previously) and a reduction of unemployment forecast down to 4.5% (vs. 4.8% previously). Lastly, GS now says that disposable income will increase 4.5% (vs. 3.8% increase previously).

On Monday, China reported higher than expected growth for Q4 (6.5% vs. 6.1% est.). However, consumer spending for Dec. was lower than expected (4.6% vs. 5% in Nov.). That said, economists are estimating a slowdown of growth for the year 2021, reducing estimates from 8.4% to 7.4% for the coming year.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 24,626,441 confirmed cases and 408,623 deaths. This comes as the average number of new cases has fallen to 211,000 new cases and deaths have flattened at 3,326 per day. As usual, the President is out of step, trying to lift travel restrictions from Brazil, Europe, and the UK on his last day in office. President-elect Biden has said this move will be reversed Wed. at noon.

Globally, the numbers rose to 96,095,456 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,051,742 deaths. As a reference, the world average new cases is down to 666,551 per day, but deaths remain high at over 13,600 new deaths per day. Israel hit another record number of new cases as its government is considering extending its national lockdown. In Germany, PM Merkel is meeting with state leaders to discuss a tighter set of restrictions, including mandatory N-95 masking by anyone in public. This comes as Germany announced it has discovered yet another mutation of the virus among 35 patients. Still, in hopeful news, the UK’s Minister for Vaccine Deployment said that national hopeful news, UK Minister for Vaccine Deployment said that restrictions in the UK could be gradually eased in March as the top 4 cohorts of the most vulnerable should have received vaccinations by then.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned mostly green. Hong Kong (+2.70%) and South Korea (+2.61%) led the gainers. Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-0.96%) and Shanghai (-0.86%) paced losing exchanges. In Europe, so far today markets are mixed but leaning green on modest moves. Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE -0.05% in on the res side of flat, DAX (+0.23%) has a modest gain, and CAC (+0.01%) is just on the green side of flat. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a small gap higher. The DIA is implying a +0.59% open, while the SPY implies a +0.64% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.79% open.

There is no major economic news for Tuesday. Major earnings reports on the day include BAC, CMA, GS, HAL, PETS, SCHW, and STT before the open. Then after the close, JBHT, NFLX, and ZION report.

With planned weekend protests at state capitols mostly failing to take place (give or take 25 armed protesters in Michigan), the market seems to be ready to start the week rested and hopeful for a transition to the Biden Administration. With 25,000 troops plus thousands of Federal Law Enforcement, as well as Iraq-style Red and Green zones fenced off, it would seem unlikely there will be any protests, riots, or disruptions to the inauguration. In fact, the new administration is already starting to work as new Sec. of Treasury Yellen is calling for action on the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan.

So, look for a bullish start to the short week. As always, follow trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed. Lock in those profits when you achieve trade goals and stick with your discipline. Focus on the overall market, the specific chart, and your own trading process. Remember, trading is a long-term game. We don’t have to try to get rich every day.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas for Tuesday. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

The Week Ahead – 1/17/21

January 17, 2021 by Ed Carter

Another 1.9 Trillion

January 15, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Another 1.9 Trillion may be on the way soon if President-Elect Biden’s stimulus plan can make it through the congressional gauntlet. Somewhat surprisingly, the market at this point is taking a wait and see attitude as it faces big bank earnings and a full plate of economic data with the potential to create some price volatility. We have a 3-day weekend with the market closed on Monday for Martin Luther King day, plan according to keeping in mind earnings ramp up next week.

Overnight Asian markets struggled after the U.S. blacklisting of smartphone maker Xiaomi. European markets trade lower across the board this morning on slower than expected recovery concerns. Ahead of a big day of earnings and economic data, U.S. futures currently point to lower open the day after the IWM set a new record high. Buckle up the road ahead could be a bumpy one.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Friday earnings calendar, we have just five verified reports, but they are potentially market-moving. Notable reports include C, JPM, PNC, & WFC.

News & Technicals’

President-elect Biden revealed his stimulus plan adding another 1.9 Trillion to the 900 Billion passed just last month. The plan includes raising the federal minimum wage to $15.00 an hour and sending an additional $1400 in direct payments to most Americans. Big banks will take center stage this morning with reports from C, JPM, PNC & WFC. The financial sector has enjoyed a tremendous bull run for the last couple of months, so all eyes will be watching. If that’s not enough, we have a full plate of economic reports that have the potential to add to this morning’s price volatility. Make sure your checking company reporting dates before buying or selling decisions. Prices have risen so much in the last few months an earnings miss could see a severe and painful punishment.

The DIA & IWM indexes hit new record levels yesterday, but only the IWM could hold the new ground by the close of the day. That said, the indexes continue in bullish trends ahead of a big day of data. Futures point to lower open as I write this report, but traders will have to stay flexible because anything is possible in reaction to all the news. As you plan your risk into the weekend, it would be wise to remember 1^st quarter earnings ramp up next week, and who knows what kind of political goofiness could crop up affecting market prices with the inauguration of President Biden. Monday, the market will be closed for Martin Luther King day so enjoy your 3-day weekend!

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bank Earnings and Stimulus Plan Details

January 15, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Thursday, Jobless Claims shot up unexpectedly to almost 1 million, but markets did not care. All three major indices opened flat, but then sold off a bit most of the day. As a result, the SPY and DIA both printed Bearish Engulfing candles, while the QQQ put in a black candle. On the day, DIA lost 0.19%, SPY lost 0.35%, and QQQ lost 0.53%. Interestingly, the IWM was up 2% and closed at an all-time high close. VXX gained just over a percent to 16.68 and T2122 fell slightly, but remains in the overbought territory at 89.97. 10-year bond yields spiked on expectations of the Biden stimulus plan closing a 1.129% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.5% to $52.72/barrel.

After hours, President-elect Biden released his $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. The plan includes another $1,400 direct payment (raising the December $600 to $2,000). It also calls for extending $400/week federal unemployment benefits through September, as well as raising the federal minimum wage to $15/hour. Other key points include $350 billion for state and local government aid, $170 billion aid for schools, $50 billion for Covid testing and $20 billion for vaccinations. One expected item that was missing was a $10,000 student loan forgiveness plan.

As he leaves office, President Trump continues to escalate tensions with China. This time by adding more Chinese companies to the federal blacklist (prohibited from doing business in the US and from US investment) including the largest Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi and massive oil company CNOOC. Some tariffs have been in place as of January 1^st, impacting things such as the price of computer graphics cards. Oxford University estimates the impact of the trade war will be about $1.6 trillion over the next 5 years, but did not break down the split between the world’s two largest economies. Reuters did report that it may result in up to 732,000 fewer US jobs being created by 2022.

Related to the virus itself, US infections remain very high, but may show signs of easing just a bit. The totals have risen to 23,848,410 confirmed cases and 397,994 deaths. This comes as we average just over 243,000 new cases and just over 3,400 deaths per day. (Extremely high, but less than just a few days ago.) In addition, in an effort to ramp up vaccinations, baseball stadiums and convention centers are being transformed into large-scale vaccination centers across the country. President-elect Biden has called for a doubling of the pace (we currently give about 500,000 shots per day and he wants 100 million in 100 days).

Globally, the numbers rose to 93,637,684 confirmed cases and the world has now broken the 2 million death mark as confirmed deaths are now at 2,004,815 deaths. As a reference, the world is averaging 715,000 new cases and over 13,500 new deaths per day. Ireland reports that half of its total cases have come in the last 2 weeks. While the number is a drop in the bucket relative to the US, that trend should be alarming. France imposed new travel restrictions. German PM Merkel proposed another total national lockdown (they are already in a partial one), but is being fought by German states and business groups. In Asia, perhaps just coincidentally, China reported its first COVID-19 death in 5 months and a renewed outbreak in the Northwest of the country, on the same day WHO experts arrived in Wuhan to investigate the virus source.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side. Shenzhen (+0.27%) and Shanghai (+0.27%) again paced gainers. Meanwhile, South Korea (-2.03%), India (-1.10%) and Thailand (-1.11%) led the losses. In Europe, so far today markets are red across the board. Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE -0.90%), DAX (-1.05%), and CAC (-1.14%) are all leading the way lower, but losses are over three-fourths of a percent across the continent. As of 7:30 am, US futures are down slightly as well. The DIA is implying a -0.41% open, while the SPY implies a -0.32% open, and the QQQ is flat, implying a -0.06% open.

The major economic news for Friday includes Dec. Retail Sales, Dec. PPI, and NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), Dec. Industrial Production (9:15 am), and Nov. Business Inventories and Mich. Consumer Sentiment (both at 10 am). Major earnings reports on the day include C, JPM, PNC, and WFC before the open. There are no major earnings reports after the close.

As we head into a long weekend and with the FBI reporting warnings of more pro-Trump attacks possible in all 50 state capitols as well as 3 serious threats to the US Capitol, do not be surprised to see hedging or profit-taking action Friday. 3 days is a long time to hold much risk in this kind of environment. Besides, it’s Friday…and Friday is payday. So, don’t forget to take some money off and pay yourself.

Lock in those profits (base hits are the way we build consistency) and stick with your discipline. As always, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed. Focus on the overall market, the specific chart, and your own trading process. Remember, trading is a long-term game. We don’t have to try to get rich every day.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GILD, MPC, FUBO, INSP, XBI, OSTK, PSX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching