Markets opened essentially flat Thursday, with a sideways grind that followed showing a slight uptrend in the large-caps.  All 3 of the major indices closed near the highs of the day.  The QQQ printed a sort of Spinning Top or Doji, while the DIA printed a sort of Hanging Man candle, and the SPY printed a strong white almost Marubozu.  On the day, SPY gained 0.57% (to close at another all-time high close), DIA gained 0.41% (now less than half a percent below the all-time high close), and QQQ gained 0.04%.  The VXX fell 1.5% to 28.99 and T2122 jumped higher, but remains just outside the overbought territory at 75.  10-year bond yields rose to 1.466% and Oil (WTI) gained over 2% to $74.96.

During the day, Treasury Sec. Yellen announced that 130 countries have agreed to the Biden Administration proposal of a global minimum corporate tax of at least 15%.  It was not announced whether low-tax havens such as Ireland have come around.  However, this momentum could have large repercussions for stocks, as many of the stock market names pay far less than the proposed minimum.  For example, AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOG, NFLX, BA, INTC, PFE, GM, and many others pay far less than even the bottom (15%) number being discussed. 

Most of the major car makers reported Q2 sales Thursday. GM reported a 40% increase year-on-year and a 7% increase from Q1.  This was a little shy of analyst expectations.  TM saw a 73% increase year-on-year and a 14% increase from Q1, which was above estimates.  This marks the first time ever the Toyota has outsold GM for a quarter.  F will report their numbers today.  The question then will be whether F retains the crown as the best-selling automaker in the US.

In miscellaneous stock news, SPCE has bumped up its launch date for its first passenger flight into space to July 11.  (The idea is for Richard Branson to beat Jeff Bezos to become the first civilian in space.)  SPCE is soaring in premarket on the news.  Despite Wednesday’s record fine, Robinhood has filed for an IPO and will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker HOOD.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again, with China showing huge moves to the downside relative to a muted rest of the region.  Shenzhen (-2.45%), Shanghai (-1.95%), and Hong Kong (-1.80%) were outliers to the downside as the rest of the region saw modest moves in either direction.  In Europe, markets are green except for a could small outliers (Greece and Denmark).  However, this is also on modest moves as the world waits on US Payroll data.  The FTSE (+0.18%), DAX (+0.37%), and CAC (+0.07%) are typical of the continent.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to an open on the green side of flat an hour.  The DIA is implying a +0.05% open, the SPY implying a +0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.19% open at this hour.  In addition, 10-year bond yields are down to 1.446%, the dollar is slightly positive, and commodities are mostly in the green in front of the big data dump.

Major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Jun Avg, Hourly Earnings, Jun Nonfarm Payrolls, Jun Participation Rate, Jun Unemployment Rate, and May Trade Balance (all at 8:30 am), and May Factory Orders (10 am).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.  

The big Payroll data is likely to call the tune for Mr. Market this morning. Economists are expecting that 706k jobs were added, that unemployment fell to 5.6% , and that average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in June. We’ll have to see how close to the mark those forecasts end up being. The trend remains positive, but it is looking weary. (Or is it just resting in the climb?). Regardless, in front of a long weekend, it might be wise to take profits, move stops, lighten up, and/or put hedges in place. Trade smart, it’s your money whether you hold the cash or leave the bet on the table.

Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. The odds favor following the trend and, as always, respect both support and resistance levels. However, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Keep taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, book those singles and doubles. Base hits win championships, not the occasional home run.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: HES, CTLT, BYD, FB, BOX, GRWG, FOLD. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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