Markets gapped down and had a tiny follow-through the first few minutes of the day.  However, bulls were having none of it and after a tiny rally markets ground sideways to close dead flat.  This broke the string of 6 straight higher closes, but only barely and the DIA did eke out a 3-cent gain on the day (whee!).  Despite this flat close, the bulls did show some weakness, with higher wicks (QQQ) and Spinning Top candles (SPY and DIA). On the day, SPY fell 0.07%, QQQ fell 0.02%, and DIA rose 0.01%.

However, small-caps diverged as the IWM closed up 0.40% at another all-time high close.  The VXX was flat at 16.40 and T2122 fell slightly by remains deep in the overbought territory at 94.65.  The dollar fell to a two-week low, which helped boost commodities Tuesday.  It didn’t hurt bitcoin either, which traded near $50,000 before backing off to $47,000 at day end.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 1.16% and Oil (WTI) rose again to $58.30/barrel.

AMZN workers at a warehouse in Alabama are voting (by mail) on whether to form a union.  Tensions remain high as the company is staunchly against the move, sending texts, mail, and verbal messages warning workers against the idea. The 6,000 workers have nearly 2 months to cast their votes.  Elsewhere, mortgage demand fell again as interest rates rose to a 3-month high.  Refinancing fell 4% for the week and new home loan applications were down 5% on the week.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 27,799,946 confirmed cases and 479,772 deaths.  However, the number of new cases continues the recent trend of falling quickly and is back down to the pre-election level as the average new cases are now 108,254 new cases per day.  Still, deaths remain stubbornly high at 2,905 per day.  JNJ’s CEO told CNBC that he thinks people may need an annual Covid-19 booster shot similar to how annual flu shots are recommended…at least for the next few years.  In the meantime, the LLY antibody combination treatment received emergency use authorization from the FDA Tuesday night.

Globally, the numbers rose to 107,490,485 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,353,256 deaths.  In good news, the world’s average of new cases is down again to 430,323 per day, but mortality remains high at 12,139 new deaths per day.  France has now extended their state of emergency until June.   Germany is also set to extend their own lockdown amid fear over the UK and South African variants.  In the UK, Transport Minister Shapps said it is far from clear whether UK tourists will be able to travel this summer.  Yet in good news, the WHO says that global new case numbers fell 17% last week and a back below 500,000 per day for the first time in many months.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  Hong Kong (+1.91%), Shenzhen (+1.75%), and Shanghai (+1.43%) led the bullish charge.  Singapore (-0.32%) was the only appreciable loser on the day.  In Europe, markets are mixed, but mostly green so far today on very modest moves.  The FTSE (+0.27%), CAC (+0.01%), and DAX (-0.01%) are fairly typical of the modest trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat to modestly higher open.  The DIA is implying a +0.29% open, the SPY implying a +0.33% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.34% open at this point.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes Jan Core CPI (8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), the Federal Budget (12:30 pm), Jan. Federal Budget Balance (2 pm) and a Fed speaker (Chair Powell at 1 pm).  Major earnings reports on the day include BG, CDW, CME, KO, DBD, EEFT, GM, IPG, IQV, PAG, TMHC, TEVA, TM, and UAA before the open.  Then after the close, ATUS, ASGN, BHF, CERN, CINF, DCP, EFX, EQIX, IFF, LUMN, MGM, MOH, ORLY, SSNC, TRMB, UBER, WU, XPO, ZG, Z, and ZNGA report.

As the Impeachment Trial continues to grab headlines, earnings and a speech by Fed Chair Powell are likely the strongest market drivers on the day. So far, KO beat on earnings and fell short on sales, UAA reported an unexpected profit, and PAG reported a blowout quarter this morning.  However, GM warned that the current global chip shortage could reduce its 2021 earnings by $2 billion. It appears bonds and the dollar are waiting to hear from Chair Powell before they take a direction today.

The market looks toppy here. However, nobody ever built a career by picking reversals…so don’t do it. Follow the trend, respect support and resistance levels, and don’t chase the moves you missed.  Keep locking in your profits when you have them. It’s all about achieving trade goals and sticking to your discipline.  Our job is to produce consistent gains…not catch lightning in a bottle. So, stick with your plan, maintain discipline and work your process. Also, remember that it’s Friday…and Friday is payday. So, don’t forget to take some profits off the table to pay yourself ahead of the weekend.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ORCL, SOLO, BABA, BA, MOMO, ZM, CRBP. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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