Friday was another volatile, rough day for the markets.  All 3 major indices gapped down and sold off early before grinding sideways from 11 am to 3:30 pm.  However, a sharp short-covering rally the last few minutes of the day brought prices well up off the lows.  As a result, both large-cap indices printed major indecisive candles and even the ugly candle in the QQQ left a substantial lower wick.  On the day, QQQ was down 2.54%, SPY down 1.04%, and DIA down 0.57%.  The VXX climbed 3% to 26.53 and T2122 fell back deep into the oversold territory at 9.17.   10-year bond yields climbed significantly to 0.874% and Oil (WTI) fell a percent and a quarter to $35.72.  The downtrend continued as for the week, the SPY was down 5.56%, DIA down 6.45%, and QQQ down 5.39% in the worst week since March.

Obviously, only the election, the virus and maybe some earnings surprise will be making news the next two days.

On the virus front, the numbers show we now have 9,475,872 confirmed cases and 236,501 deaths.  The national new cases per day exceeded 101,000 on Friday, with the 7-day average of new cases now reaching a record of almost 83,000 while average daily deaths are also rising at just over 850/day.  We are at record levels with 48 states showing new case increases in the last week (31 states reported at least one record new case count day), 29 states have deaths increasing versus the previous week.  On Saturday night, Dr. Fauci (NIH) told CNBC that “there’s going to be a whole lot of pain in this country with regard to additional cases and hospitalizations and deaths” as he said “we need to double-down on masks.”  This comes while many continue to downplay the pandemic, insist the problem has passed, and rebel against mitigation and control measures.

Globally, the numbers rose to 46,932,503 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,206,776 deaths.  The 7-day average of new cases is about 500,000 while the 7-day average virus deaths is over 6,500/day.  In Europe, things are getting very bad as countries are shuffling patients across borders to find enough hospital beds. The UK entered its second national lockdown (through at least December 1) on Friday.  France’s national lockdown also began Friday and Belgium followed suit.  Germany also started a partial lockdown today.  Italy is not yet ready to go this far, instead, imposing measures on gathering sizes and closing specific groups of businesses. Spain has not yet gone that far, using expanded regional shutdowns in an effort to stave off a national shutdown. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  South Koreas (+1.46%), Hong Kong (+1.46%) and Japan (+1.39%) led the gains on the day.  Europe seems to be following suite, with large gains across the board so far Monday.  The DAX (+1.93%), CAC (+1.93%), and FTSE (+1.15%) are good representations of the rest of the continent on upbeat date on the manufacturing front and hope surrounding the end of the US election.  As of 7:30am, US futures are pointing to a gap higher at the open.  The DIA implies a open up 1.58%, SPY implies a +1.34% open, and the QQQ implies a 1.03% gain at the start of the day.

The major economic news for Monday includes Personal Consumer Expenditure (7:30 am), Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), and ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am).  Major earnings reports include BCC, CWH, CDW, CLX, CNA, EL, FE, HSIC, JLL, LCII, MPC, MPLX, NI, ON, TEN, and WM before the open.  Then after the close, AIZ, CNO, FANG, FMC, G, IR, LEG, MDLZ, NTR, OMI, PYPL, PAA, PAGP, SWKS, STE, RIG, WMB, and YRCW report.

As mentioned, the raging virus, the election, and earnings (or more importantly future guidance) are the main sources of volatility in the market now. Even with the likelihood of the President suing many states to influence the outcome of the election, there is a palpable relief that the election will be “over.” And regardless of the election outcome, the lame-duck government will have no impediment to pass more stimulus. So, expect more volatility in the short-term, but realize we can see some light at the end of this tunnel now.

Like earnings, the election is an unpredictable, event. Consider very carefully how much risk you want to have on, even if you think you know how the election will go. Be careful, nimble, and bear in mind you don’t have to trade every day or even week.  Lock-in profits whenever you can and maintain your discipline.  Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CTLRY, GE, KRE, WFC, CGC, FITB, PACW, CRUS, NXPI. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service