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Inflation Fears Grip Markets

February 26, 2021 by Ed Carter

The large-caps opened flat, but the bears were in control all day. It was the same story in the QQQ, but with a significant gap down to start the day. This left us with a Bearish Engulfing signal in the DIA, and ugly large-body black candles in the other two major indices. On the say DIA lost 1.74%, SPY lost 2.41%, and QQQ lost 3.49%. The VXX gained almost 16% to 16.79 and T2122 dropped all the way down to the edge of the oversold territory at 20.22. 10-year jumped again to 1.532% as inflation fears spooked markets all day. Oil (WTI) lost half a percent to $63.18/barrel.

After the close, the Senate Parliamentarian ruled that the Democratic minimum wage hike (to $15/hr.) must not be included in the relief bill since it is being passed under budgetary rules. On the surface, this seems like a win for the GOP, which has strongly opposed the increase. However, many Democrats had hoped for this ruling, as it makes it easier for the relief bill to pass the Senate and it removes the potential party split on this topic. In either case, this makes it much more likely for the President’s $1.9 trillion relief bill gets passed in the next couple of weeks. The House is scheduled to vote on the bill today.

Another story related to the idea of a trading tax idea (an idea that was quietly revived by Liberals during the Robinhood / Reddit / Short Squeeeze story) has popped up. The idea which is a favorite of populist politicians such as Senators Warren and Sanders (as a supposed way of reducing high-frequency trading by funds), is being adopted abroad as well. In this case, Hong Kong plans to implement the same type of tax. Overnight, the Hong Kong Finance Secretary (the counter-part to US Treasury Sec. Yellen) told CNBC Asia that the tax will not harm the competitiveness of the Hang Seng exchange. He went on to say it will bring in much-needed additional government revenue, helping fund the City’s $256 billion deficit for the pandemic year. CNBC did not follow-up on whether he knew something about the plans of other countries or why he specifically feels this increased cost per trade will not make the HSI exchange less attractive.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 29,052,262 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 520,785 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases is starting to level-out and uptick at an average of 71,412 new cases per day. Oddly, deaths, which have always lagged, seem to be preceding this plateau and rose back up to 2,082 per day. After the close Thursday President Biden celebrated the halfway point toward his promised 100 million vaccinations in 100 days. The 50million were actually accomplished in 5 weeks. In other good news, the FDA Advisory Panel will make its decision on the JNJ vaccine on today.

Globally, the numbers rose to 113,643,803 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,521,185 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average new cases has up-ticked slightly again to 382,500 per day. However, mortality ticked down again, now at 9,296 new deaths per day. In a real show of charity, India has shipped 36 million doses of vaccine to various developing countries. This is particularly impressive given that they have 1.4 billion people of their own to vaccinate. Elsewhere in Asian, South Korea has extended its Social Distancing measures through at least March 14 as vaccinations begin in that country.

Overnight, the few Asian markets were mostly strongly in the red, with only 2 smaller markets remaining green. Japan (-3.99%), Hong Kong (-3.64%) and Taiwan (-3.03%) led Asian markets lower. In Europe, we see red across the board so far today. The FTSE (-1.56%) and CAC (-1.03%) are leading stocks lower, but the DAX (-0.67%) is not exactly a bright spot. Inflation fears seem to be the culprit as was the case in the US on Thursday. However, another mid-day happening is the Bank of England’s Chief Economist warned that the “inflationary tiger has awoken” which will reinforce market fears over inflation. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are mixed and flat after a turbulent overnight session. The DIA is pointing to a -0.10% open, the SPY is implying a +0.10% open, and he QQQQ is implying a -0.07% open at this point.

Major economic news for Friday includes Jan. PCE Price Index, Jan. Trade Balance, Jan. Personal Spending, and Jan. Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 am), Feb. Chicago PMI (9:45 am), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am), and US Federal Budget (2 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AMCX, BLDR, CRI, SSP, FLR, FL, LSXMA, and PEG before the open. Then after the close, COKE reports.

Inflation fears remain the “monster in the closet” for markets today. News out of Europe (contradicting Fed Chair Powell’s reassuring testimony about inflation earlier this week) is likely to reinforce the panic yesterday. It is also month-end, so there may be some balancing sales built into the market today after a strong February. So, have your downside protection at hand, but also be wary of the back-and-forth chop of this week.

The downtrend is obviously back in place for the major indices. If you are going to trade today, follow trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase those moves that you miss. However, remember that you don’t have to trade every day. Part of the trick to trading success is knowing when the market is too volatile to safely trade. Another trade will come along any minute. Achieve your ambitions in the long-run by taking short-term trade goals off the board as they are met, over and over again. Forget about predicting reversals or breakouts. Book your trade goals when you can and stick with your discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Friday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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VZ 5G Play with Jobless Claims and Q4 GDP

February 25, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down again Wednesday, and sold off the first hour. However, as soon as Fed Chair Powell began to speak, the bulls stepped on the gas and rallied the rest of the day. This left us with strong bullish candles and the DIA even closed at another new all-time high. On the day, SPY gained 1.10%, DIA gained 1.31%, and QQQ lagged, but still gained 0.82%. The VXX fell 4% to 14.48 and T2122 jumped back into the overbought territory at 92.76. 10-year bond yield rose again to 1.383% and Oil (WTI) gained half a percent to $63.56/barrel.

Interestingly, Fed Chair Powell said that prices may rise in the coming months, but that does not mean inflation has come back. I’m not sure how that math works, especially in a time of Fed easy money policy. Still, markets took it as a sign of the Fed saying they were going to keep their foot on the gas regardless of inflation. In other Fed news, they reported a systems outage for four hours Wednesday. This means that millions of interbank transfers, payroll transactions, and even tax refunds could not be processed during that time. They reported this as a “operational error” and services were mostly restored by day end. However, the outage does raise questions about the robustness of American financial infrastructure.

VZ was the high bidder in Wednesday’s FCC’s 5G spectrum auction. The spent over $45 billion to secure over 3,500 licenses for the prime “mid-band” frequencies. T was the second highest bidder, spending over $23 billion to get 1,600 licenses. No other carrier purchased even 20% of what T bought and T bought less than half what VZ bought. This means VZ will be able to build out the largest 5G network in the country, by far.

Related to the virus and stimulus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 28,974,623 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 518,363 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases is starting to level-out and uptick at an average of 70,678 new cases per day. Oddly, deaths, which have always lagged, seem to be preceding this plateau and rose back up to 2,131 per day. In more good news, NVAX said they expect to apply for FDA approval of their vaccine in Q2. As expected, House Speaker Pelosi has scheduled the vote to pass the $1.9 trillion relief bill in the House on Friday. The Senate will then consider the bill. One key issue that remains is that it will be the Senate Parliamentarian (a little know post) who decides if the $15/hr. minimum wage can be included in the bill. Democrats have told reporters privately that they hope the Parliamentarian strips that provision from the bill, because they doubt it will pass the Senate with than provision attached.

Globally, the numbers rose to 113,191,956 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,510,807 deaths. The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today. The world’s average of new cases has up-ticked slightly to 376,133 per day. Mortality also ticked up, now at 9,442 new deaths per day. PFE/BNTX and MRNA have both begun testing booster vaccines to fight the new UK and South African variants specifically. This would require a 3^rd shot, but would extend protection, once the booster shot is proven in tests. In Europe, several of the smaller countries (like Austria) are now calling on the EU to create travel passports for those who have been vaccinated. Meanwhile Germany warned of a third wave if Europe does not reopen cautiously and France imposed a lockdown on another city (Dunkirk) due to outbreak.

Overnight, the few Asian markets were mostly in the green, with the lone exceptions of Shenzhen. South Korea (+3.50%), Japan (+1.67%), and Taiwan (+1.48%) led the way higher. In Europe, a similar story is taking shape today. Only the DAX (-0.17%) and Switzerland (-0.20%) are down, while the rest of the continent is at least above break-even. The FTSE (+0.40%) leads the way with the CAC (+0.12%) being more typical at this point of the day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are mixed with the large-cap straddling the flat line and the QQQ pointing to a -0.76% open.

Major economic news for Thursday includes Jan. Durable Goods Orders, Q4 GDP, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am), Jan. Pending Home Sales (10 am), and a number of Fed speakers (Bostic at 8:30 am, Quarles at 11:10 am, Bostic again at noon, and Williams at 3 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AES, AEP, AMT, BUD, BBY, CWH, CM, CNP, CLF, DPZ, DCI, EME, FCN, GIL, GTN, HSC, SJM, KDP, MLCO, NTES, NLSN, NOMD, PCG, PLTK, PWR, REZI, SAFM, SRCL, TD, TFX, VIPS, and W all before the open. Then after the close, ACHC, ADT, ABNB, ADSK, CZR, CVNA, FIX, CWK, DELL, DASH, EIX, ENDP, ERIE, FTCH, FND, HPQ, IHRT, LHCG, MTZ, MNST, QRTEA, REGI, RKT, CRM, SFM, TA, UHS, VALE, VMW, WDAY, and INT report.

Jobless Claims, the update on Q4 GDP, and earnings reports are likely to drive markets this morning. Markets were giddy Wednesday after Fed Chair Powell basically said “whatever it takes to get it done” to pump up the economy. However, regardless of Fed speak, rissing bond rates point to inflation and Mr. Market knows how the Fed reacts to inflation. So fear exists as well.

The downtrend is broken in the large-caps, but that question is still debatable in the QQQ as high-tech has lagged. Just follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase those moves that you miss. Another trade will come along any minute. Remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Achieve your ambitions in the long-run by hitting short-term goals over and over again. Forget about predicting reversals or breakouts. Book your trade goals when you can and stick with your discipline.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: FDX, XRT, ABBV, HON, LYFT, MU, F, TLRY. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Earnings and Loan Demand Lead News

February 24, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down and then put in a very volatile day as stocks rallied strong after Fed Chair Powell told us inflation was “still soft” and the Fed remains committed to the current “easy money” policies, including buying bonds. This left us with white-body indecisive candles that can be seen as Hammer candles (if you squint). On the day SPY gained 0.12%, DIA gained 0.05%, and QQQ lost 0.30%. The VXX fell 4% to 15.08 and T2122 also fell back to 72.05. The 10-year bond yields fell slightly to 1.353% and Oil (WTI) rose slightly to $61.88/barrel.

SQ bought $170 million in bitcoin Tuesday. Then overnight a 6^th Chinese city launched their country’s Central Bank official digital currency ($6 million worth) as a test. Also last night, Bloomberg reported that Japan’s most expensive brokerage (Monex Group) has made a massive rally, up 136% this year, strictly on cryptocurrency bets. The story just goes to show that more and more of the world’s mainstream financial institutions and governments are starting to accept and invest in the crypto revolution. This all comes one day after Treasury Sec. Yellen warned that bitcoin was an “extremely inefficient” way to conduct monetary transactions…hinting at the need for the government to regulate those currencies and markets.

Mortgage demand plummeted 11% week-on-week on rate spikes, but may also be distorted by the winter storm impacts. In other business news, LOW announced a beat on earnings on 28% same-store sales growth. However, they warned that DIY trends could fade away as consumers return to a more normal life. OMI also beat on the topline, but unlike Lowes, OMI came in almost a percent light on revenue. Oil patch names like HFC also missed on both top and bottom lines. In the tech space, IRM missed badly on earnings (over 55%) on an almost 4% revenue miss.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 28,897,718 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 514,996 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases is starting to level-out and uptick at an average of 70,255 new cases per day. Oddly, deaths, which have always lagged, seem to be preceding this plateau and rose back up to 2,126 per day. With that backdrop, the White House said Tuesday that 2 million doses of the JNJ single-shot vaccine can be available next week, pending FDA approval. In addition, White House Press Sec. Psaki also said that states will now get 14.5 million doses/week (up from 8.6 million/week). President Biden also indicated that masks will be sent directly Americans.

Globally, the numbers rose to 112,739,376 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,498,495 deaths. However, the trends have good until very recently. The world’s average of new cases has up-ticked slightly to 369,614 per day. Mortality also ticked up, now at 9,522 new deaths per day. In Europe, Ireland extended their lockdown through April 5. Meanwhile, Scotland is leaving lockdown and returning to a multi-tier system of restrictions, with the youngest children returning to in-person school next week. In Spain, the government said it will quadruple the number of available doses during Q2 relative to now. And in China, another Chinese vaccine maker has filed for Chinese approval after their tests show 65% efficacy (15% less effective than the first Chinese vaccine claimed).

Overnight, the few Asian markets were strongly in the red. Hong Kong (-2.99%), South Korea (-2.45%), and Shenzhen (-2.03%) led the way lower, but losses were broad and significant. However, in Europe, markets are almost all modestly green as of mid-day. The FTSE (+0.05%), and CAC (+0.13%) are flat while the DAX (+0.74%) is leading the way higher. As of 7:30 am, it appears the US is following Europe up this morning. The DIA is implying a +0.10% open, the SPY implying a +0.19% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.22% open at this hour.

Major economic news for Wednesday includes Jan. New Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and 3 Fed speakers (Chair Powell testifies at 10 am, Brainard at 10:30 am, and Clarida at 1 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include BHC, CQP, LNG, CLH, ELAN, ETR, EXC, HFC, HZNP, IRM, LOW, ODP, OSTK, OMI, PSN, PNW, PPD, RY, SBGI, SITE, TEN, TJX, and VRT before the open. Then after the close AMED, ANSS, APA, BKNG, BKD, CW, FNF, GEF, ICLR, LB, VAC, NTAP, NVDA, PARR, CNXN, RYI, SPTN, STN, FTI, TPC, UNVR, and VIAC report.

With little new data and Fed Chair Powell unlikely to say anything today that he didn’t say yesterday, it will be earnings reports that are likely to fill the minds of traders today. Meanwhile, the midwest (and TX in particular) are getting back to pandemic normal life as political and business fallout gathers steam. The chop and pullback of the last week were punctuated Tuesday with a high volume major intraday reversal. Is that the capitulation of bears on the pullback? I’m not sure, but it did signal the bulls are ready to jump back in at any time.

That said, the trend remains bearish on a daily level and we have to respect the trend until it is broken. Remember that knife-catching is not a long-term trading career path. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Achieve your ambitions in the long-run by hitting short-term goals over and over again. Forget about predicting reversals or breakouts. Just follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Book your trade goals when you can and stick with your discipline. If you keep locking in your profits when you have them, you’ll never go bust.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PENN, FCX, MLM, M, PINS, SNAP, APPS. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

BA Bad News and Relief Bill Rush Starts

February 22, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up Friday, ground sideways the rest of the morning, sold off at lunchtime and then ground sideways the rest of the day. The left the 3 major indices with black candles on modest moves for the day. The SPY and QQQ printed Dark Cloud Cover type candles. On the day SPY was down 0.18%, DIA was down 0.20%, and QQQ was down 0.44%. The VXX fell over 3.5% to 15.10 and T2122 rose back into the overbought territory at 85.59. 10-year bond yields shot up again to 1.34% and Oil (WTI) fell 2.5% to $59.01/barrel.

Following on the GME hearings last week, on Friday Democratic Rep. Waters (who chairs the Financial Services Committee) said she is considering putting forward a tax on financial transactions in an effort to reduce transactions and curb high-frequency activity. The idea died on the vine a decade ago as major financial industry lobbies all opposed it. However, it has long been the dream idea of some liberals. During his campaign, President Biden said he supported the idea, but put forth no details or plans.

BA suffered another rough weekend as two US events impacted the same model plane. The 777-200 plane had cowling blow off during takeoff in one event and an engine blew up mid-flight (near Denver) in the other. The FAA has now ordered an inspection of all model 777-200 that have Pratt-Whitney engines to be inspected. The only US airline that flies that model is UAL and the airline took 24 planes out of service Sunday evening to facilitate the inspections. Separately, a BA 747-400 cargo plane also suffered an engine explosion shortly after takeoff that rained debris on a Dutch town on a flight bound for the US.

Related to the virus, US infections continue the recent trend of decreasing new cases. The totals have risen to 28,765,423 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 511,133 deaths. However, the number of new cases continues to fall quickly and is back down to the October level as the average new cases are now 69,002 new cases per day. However, deaths remain at a stubbornly high level of 1,983 per day.

Globally, the numbers rose to 112,027,570 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,479,313 deaths. However, the trends are good. The world’s average of new cases continues to fall quickly and is now down to 360,270 per day. Mortality lags but is also falling, now down to 9,398 new deaths per day. The number of new cases is rising slightly in Germany, which stands out because of the precipitous fall elsewhere. However, in the UK, PM Johnson announced a roadmap to reopening by removing restrictions step-by-step.

Overnight, the few Asian markets were mostly red. Shenzhen (-2.11%), India (-2.04%), and Shanghai (-1.45%) led the way lower. Japan (+0.46%) and Taiwain (+0.42%) were notable holdouts on the bullish side. The same is true so far today in Europe, where the only green at this point is Athens (+0.84%) and Norway (+0.77%). At mid-day, the FTSE (-0.63%), Dax (-0.58%), and CAC (-0.42%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30am, it appears the US is following the rest of the world lower. The DIA is implying a -0.53% open, the SPY implying a -0.73% open, and the QQQ implying a -1.30% open at this hour.

There is no major economic news for Monday. Major earnings reports on the day include CTB, DISCA, DISH, KBR, and VTRS before the open. Then after the close, AL, CDNS, CVI, FANG, GFL. IR, MRO, OXY, OKE, PANW, PRIM, RSG, RIG, and WMB report.

With no data and not many major earnings reports to start the week, it looks like we will follow Europe and Asia lower. congress is bound to make some news this week as they dash to approve the Democratic or Biden Administration relief bill. Meanwhile, the midwest (and TX in particular) are trying to get back to pandemic normal life while repairing broken pipes, cleaning water damage, and in many cases dealing with electric bills in the thousands. (Many Texans pay based on power company market costs, and those skyrocketed in the last 10 days. This caused many to be without power while at the same time others had power but were paying exorbitant prices.) The sideways chop (consolidation) of the last 2 weeks has taken a toll on many in the market. However, in the longer view, bulls still have the upper hand and we remain less than a percent from all-time highs. So, beware of volatility (gap and fade we’ve seen recently), but stay on the right side of the trend until it is broken.

Remember that trading is a marathon, not a sprint. You don’t have to trade every day and don’t try to get rich quick. Do it in the long-run by hitting goals over and over again. Forget about predicting reversals or breakouts. Neither catching knives nor chasing trains is not a good career path. Just follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Book your trade goals when you can and stick to your discipline. If you keep locking in your profits when you have them, you’ll never go bust.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: C, PFG, ADS, HCA, F, FB, CVS, HOME, URI, DFS, MGM, GE, ALLY. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Order Flow Payment and UBER News

February 19, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down significantly, largely in reaction to an unexpectedly bad Weekly Initial Jobless Claims number and a week forecast during the WMT report. However, after the gap, all 3 major indices slowly ground back toward the prior candle. This left all three in white-bodied indecisive Doji or Spinning Top type candles. On the day, SPY lost 0.43%, DIA lost 0.33%, and QQQ lost 0.44%. The VXX was up slightly to 15.66 and T2122 fall back to mid-range at 56.00. 10-year bond yields gained slightly to 1.297% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 2% to $60.08/barrel.

The Congressional hearings Thursday made for a tough day for both Robinhood and Citadel who got blasted by House members on both sides of the political aisle. Citadel was left defending “payment for order flow” while Robinhood CEO Tenev had to defend that business model as well as not allowing customers to buy GME. However, Reddit and Reddit Trader Keith Gill (Roaring Kitty) received praise from both sides. There were also a couple of revelations, such as that over 50% of Robinhood’s revenue comes from payments for order flow (selling customer orders to the highest bidder). In addition, it was disclosed that Citadel is the broker’s largest counter-party, buying most of the orders that Robinhood sells. It also came out that on January 28, Robinhood was nearly out of business when the clearinghouse demanded $3 billion in posted capital and the company could not come up with that amount. (They stayed afloat by negotiating the clearinghouse down to $1.4 billion, which the company could raise from investors.)

The UK version of the Supreme Court has ruled unanimously that UBER drivers are employees, not independent contractors. UBER now has to go back to the country’s employment court to determine what back compensation their workers are due. The threat is that Europe and even US courts could take the same position in the future. However, this court ruling deals a blow to not only to UBER, but to all “gig economy” based companies that have been relying on contractors to reduce costs by transferring responsibilities to workers.

Related to the virus, US infections continue the recent trend of decreasing new cases. The totals have risen to 28,523,524 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 505,309 deaths. However, the number of new cases continues to fall quickly and is back down to the October level as the average new cases are now 73,858 new cases per day. However, deaths remain at a stubbornly high level of 2,075 per day. Mid-day on Thursday, WMT’s CEO told CNBC that his customers need another round of stimulus checks and need it quickly. Then in the evening, Treasury Sec. Yellen made her push for a big package of relief, fast in interviews Thursday evening. Along those lines, House Democrats hope to pass their version of the $1.9 trillion relief package next week according to Speaker Pelosi. It appears they will be doing it without GOP support.

Globally, the numbers rose to 110,929,475 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,454,516 deaths. However, the trends are good. The world’s average of new cases continues to fall quickly and is now down to 361,898 per day. Mortality lags but is also falling, now down to 9,976 new deaths per day. UK PM Johnson has called for the G7 Countries to work together as a coalition to be able to develop vaccines and treatments to pathogens (like the Covid variants) and test them within 100 days. This would be about 3 times faster than the first covid vaccines were rolled out. French President Macron then urged the G7 to donate 4%-5% of their available vaccine doses to developing countries.

Overnight, the few Asian markets were mixed. Australia (-1.34%) and Japan (-0.72%) led the losses, while Shenzhen (+0.75%) and South Korea (+0.68%) led the gains. In Europe, markets are also mostly green so far today. The FTSE (+0.10%) is just above flat, but the CAC (+0.63%) and DAX (+0.52%) are moderately green at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a positive open. The DIA is implying a +0.26% open, the SPY implying +0.36%, and the QQQ implying a +0.53% open at this hour.

The major economic news for Friday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am), Jan. Existing Home Sales (10 am) and a Fed speaker (Rosengren at 11 am). Major earnings reports on the day include DE, DTE, ITT, MGA, and POR before the open. There are no major earnings reports after the close.

With modest data, limited earnings reports, and Congress still not back in DC, the market does not have a clear driver for the day. It is Friday and with the winter storm projected to move into New York City today, we may see some of the big players head home early. The sideways and lower trading of this week has taken a toll. However, the bulls remain in control of the trend in a broader sense. So, beware of volatility (gap and fade we’ve seen recently) and get positioned for the weekend.

Forget about predicting. Knife-catching is not a good career path. Just follow the trend, respect support and resistance levels, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Book your trade goals when you can and stick to your discipline. If you keep locking in your profits when you have them, you’ll never go bust. Remember that trading is a marathon, not a sprint. You don’t have to trade every day and don’t try to get rich quick. Do it in the long-run by hitting goals over and over again. Also, remember it’s Friday, so don’t forget to pay yourself.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DRI, SMAR, DOCU, H, MGM, KO, SAVE, CLSK, IQ, MU. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Much News Today Including GME Hearing

February 18, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down about a third of a percent in the large-caps and about one percent in the QQQ on Wednesday. However, after a little morning vacillation, the bulls stepped in and tried to drive price back up. This left is with cap-down white candles across the board. Of the 3, only the QQQ printed a candle signal and that was an indecisive Spinning Top. On the day, SPY (+0.02%) was flat, DIA (+0.32%) was up and QQQ (-0.48%) was down. VXX fell 2% to 15.58 and T2122 fell out of the overbought territory down to 71.83. 10-year bond yields fell a bit to 1.282% and Oil (WTI) rose a dollar to $61.14/barrel on the back of the winter storm demand.

The Dow was buoyed by VZ and CV, which saw major moves on reports that BRKB had taken a major stake in Q4. (Everybody wants to follow Buffett.) The afternoon rally was helped by FOMC minutes that showed that an easy money policy will be in place for longer than many expected. The group’s focus was clearly on getting employment back to pre-pandemic levels regardless of the cost. Retail Sales in January also surged 5.3%, blowing away the consensus estimate of +1.2%. This seems to signal that people are spending their December stimulus checks and just the opposite of the FOMC, indicate a potential for inflation.

The key players in the recent “social media short squeeze” will be testifying today in front of the House Financial Services Committee. The CEOs of Reddit, Robinhood, Melvin Capital, Citadel and a key Reddit trade known as “Roaring Kitty” will all testify about GME stock price manipulation. Conspicuously absent from the list are major brokerages who also temporarily banned the shorting or trading of GME stock, such as SCHW, eTrade, Fidelity, IBKR, etc. So, perhaps they will have their turn in the barrel in a different hearing.

Related to the virus, US infections continue the recent trend of decreasing new cases. The totals have risen to 28,453,526 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 502,544 deaths. However, the number of new cases continues to fall quickly and is back down to the October level as the average number of new cases are now 79,112 new cases per day. Unfortunately, deaths remain stubbornly high at a level of 2,145 per day. Related to this, the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (the two largest US ports) have begun diverting container ships to alternate ports because over 800 post workers are out sick with Covid. Unload times at these ports have risen from less than 3 days to more than 8 days as stretched staff have seen a major increase in traffic since last fall. This will add cost and likely delays to incoming freight.

Globally, the numbers rose to 110,520,588 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,442,946 deaths. However, the trends are good. The world’s average of new cases continues to fall quickly and is now down to 367,784 per day. Mortality lags but is also falling, now down to 10,239 new deaths per day. In England, the government reported that new infections have dropped by two-thirds from the peak. However, in some “bad actor” news, Belgium reported that they have caught 184,000 violations of pandemic rules since last March (on a country of 11.5 million), but only 97,000 people were issued fines.

Overnight, the few Asian markets were mostly red. Hong Kong (-1.58%) and Malaysia (-1.22%) led the losses. However, there were a couple of holdouts with Shanghai (+0.55%) and Taiwan (+0.38%) closing higher. In Europe, markets are also mostly red so far today. The FTSE (-0.70%) and CAC (-0.22%) are down, but the DAX (+0.13%) is staying just above flat. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a lower open. The DIA is implying a -0.31% open, the SPY implying -0.40%, and the QQQ implying a -0.74% open at this hour.

The major economic news for Thursday includes Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Jan. Building Permits, Jan. Import/Export Index, Jan. Housing Starts, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (11 am), and a couple Fed speakers (Brainard at 8 am and Bostic at 10 am). Major earnings reports on the day include AAWW, GOLD, BLMN, CFX, EPAM, FE, HRL, KELYA, LKQ, MAR, NEM, OMC, RS, SRE, SO, SYNH, TECK, TPH, VTR, VC, WAB, WMT, and WM before the open. Then after the close, COLD, AMN, AMAT, ATR, ANET, CNDT, ED, CPRT, EBS, KEYS, QDEL, RXT, ROKU, TDS, TXRH, and USM report.

With a lot of economic news out this morning, especially Jobless Claims and Housing data, markets do not seem optimistic. The winter storm also continues to weigh on sentiment in much of the country. However, the bulls remain in control of the trend as the bears have not been able to get enough traction for even a small pullback. Still, there may be market-related news out of the Congressional Hearing today that may shake things up again.

Forget about predicting. Knife-catching is not a good career path. Just follow the trend, respect support and resistance levels, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Book your trade goals when you can and stick to your discipline. If you keep locking in your profits when you have them, you’ll never go bust. Remember that trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Don’t try to get rich quick. Do it in the long-run by hitting goals over and over again.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DXCM, AIG, PFE, CB, SNAP, PENN, C, KR, UNG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Storm and Earnings Remain Talking Point

February 17, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up one-third to one-half of a percent Tuesday and then ground sideways to down in all 3 major indices. This left us with black-body candles that were flat for the session. For the day DIA led with a gain of 0.17% (another all-time high close) while the SPY (-0.09%) and QQQ (-0.27%) were on the red side of flat. VXX gained a little over a percent to 15.92 and T2122 fell back, but remains just inside the overbought territory at 82.87. 10-year bond yields spiked again to 1.311% (the highest in nearly a year) and Oil (WTI) rose 67 cents to close at $60.143/barrel.

The brutal winter storm continues to be the big news story. Rolling power blackouts (total blackouts in places like parts of TX) and treacherous driving conditions through the Midwest (TX to MN) are having impacts on business we well as people. Among the industries hit are Oil and Gas Fracking, which has halted throughout the Permian Basin due to the inability to ship product. As a result, Nat Gas prices spiked to $999/million BTU for next-day delivery in OK (versus $4.19/million last week). While this is the worst example, other contracts sold at $700, $620, $400, and $275/million at various hubs.

Bitcoin has set another all-time high this morning, almost touching $52,000 as major investment banks and other firms are starting to support the digital currency. Mortgage demand also fell over 5% last week as interest rates are increasing at the fastest pace in months. 30-year fixed rate mortgages now average 2.98%, with new purchase loan applications down 6% on the week.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 28,381,220 confirmed cases and 499,991 deaths. However, the number of new cases continues to fall quickly and is back down to the October level as the average new cases are now 82,841 new cases per day. However, deaths remain at a stubbornly high level of 2,270 per day. The University of Virginia has banned all in-person events after 117 new cases (including many of the UK variant) were reported on their campus yesterday. Even assuming FDA approval, JNJ will be delivering their one-shot vaccine much slower than the government had been led to believe. While 20-30 million doses by April had been expected, an apparent “miscommunication” now leads to an expectation that the number will be less than 10 million doses in that time. However, President Biden promised the country would have enough vaccine by the end of July to vaccinate every American (at least those that will take one).

Globally, the numbers rose to 110,115,976 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,431,617 deaths. However, the trends are good. The world’s average of new cases continues to fall quickly and is now down to 374,515 per day. Mortality lags but is also falling, now down to 10,630 new deaths per day. South Africa has received its first shipment of the JNJ vaccine and discussions are underway as to whether to restart vaccinations (which were stopped when the MRNA vaccine was found to not work for the South African variant). And in better news, Sri Lanka has reopened their country for tourists without quarantine. However, they want no mingling between visitors and locals (and I have no idea how that would work).

Overnight, the few Asian markets that were open were mostly red. The dramatic outlier was Taiwan (+3.54%), mostly on the strength of TSM (+4.91%). In Europe, markets are mixed, but mostly red so far today. The FTSE (-0.22%), CAC (-0.03%), and DAX (-0.57%) are a typical spread with a few minor exchanges like Belgium and Portugal on the green side. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open. The DIA is barely green (+0.03%), the SPY barely red (-0.02%) and the QQQ just red (-0.19%) at this hour.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes Jan. PPI and Jan. Retail Sales (both at 8:30 am), Jan. Industrial Production (9:15 am), Dec. Business Inventories (10 am), and Release of FOMC Jan. Minutes (2 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include ADI, ATH, CRL, COMM, ENCL, EQT, ES, GRMN, GPC, HSIC, HLT, NI, OC, SHOP, and SAH before the open. Then after the close, ALB, ALSN, AEL, AR, AXTA, BIDU, CF, CAKE, CYH, ET, HLF, IQ, MANT, MOS, NTR, OVV, PXD, RBC, SNBR, SUN, SNPS, TROX, UFPIVMI, and WCN report.

Again, with Congress gone for the week, earnings, economic news, and the winter storm are likely to drive the discussion. The bulls are still in charge of the trend, but it is the wall of worry (about overextension) that guides them, not an all-out bull charge. Be leery of any volatile moves at this point as it may signal exhaustion.

It’s all about achieving trade goals and sticking to your discipline. So, keep locking in your profits when you have them. Follow the trend, respect support and resistance levels, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Just stick with your plans, maintain discipline and work your process. Focus on getting rich slowly and not trying to hit the lottery.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TRV, BA, SBUX, PENN, CCL, X, GOGO, CBAT, IPHI. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Winter Storm and Earnings Lead News

February 16, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets were dead most of the day Friday, but a strong rally on volume the last half hour took all 3 major indices on near the highs of the day. This created large-body Bullish Engulfing candles in the SPY and QQQ, while the DIA missed engulfing by 7 cents. On the day, SPY gained 0.51%, QQQ gained 0.56%, and DIA lagged at +0.11%. With that said, all 3 of the major averages closed at another all-time high close. The VXX fell over 3% to 15.74 and T2122 remains well into the overbought territory at 88.11. 10-year bond yields spiked to 1.205% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 2.5% to close at $59.66/barrel.

Also on Friday, ahead of their taking this week off, House Democrats pushed forward the parts of the relief plan that cover the $1,400 direct payments, payments to families with children (up to $3,600/child under age 6), and an extension of unemployment. These portions are out of committee and are still on track to be passed as a single “budget” bill to be reconciled with Senate versions by the end of the month. In unrelated news, President Biden called on Congress to pass “commonsense gun laws” on Sunday. The specifics called for are an elimination of immunity for gunmakers, universal background checks, and a ban on selling “assault-style” weapons and high-capacity magazines. This may well move gun stocks like RGR, SWBI, VSTO, etc.

Interesting news out of oil giant RDS. The Dutch company said on Monday that they believe the world hit “peak oil production” in 2019 with the Covid outbreak accelerating the move away from Oil. In fact, RDS said they main profit center will become liquified natural gas as time moves forward. With that said, the price of oil has hit a pandemic high this this last week, with WTI trading at $61.77 at one point, and is holding above $60 in the winter storm, which theoretically ought to stoke more production. Still, carmakers like GM are fast-tracking the move to electric vehicles with Chevy also adding 2 new electric models to their Bolt line on Monday.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to be of concern in the US. The totals have risen to 28,317,703 confirmed cases and 498,203 deaths. However, the number of new cases continues to fall quickly and is back down to the October level as the average new cases are now 87,603 new cases per day. However, deaths remain at a stubbornly high level of 2,481 per day. While new cases are down 62% this week, the CDC also announced Sunday that they have identified 7 new US-originated variants. Still, PFE and MRNA are contracted to deliver another 130 million doses over the next 6 weeks (versus the 70 million that have been delivered so far). So, we may be turning a corner.

Globally, the numbers rose to 109,747,785 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,420,609 deaths. In good news, the world’s average of new cases is down again to 379,868 per day, but mortality remains high at 11,084 new deaths per day. NVAX announced Monday that the Phase 3 trials for its own COVID vaccine are now fully subscribed. This comes as some countries are easing social distancing measures despite warnings about relaxing too early. The latest to follow this trend are Hong Kong, Netherlands, and Israel.

Overnight, the few Asian markets that were open were mostly green. Japan (+1.28%) and South Korea (+0.52%) led the way. In Europe, markets are mostly modestly green so far today. The FTSE (+0.24%), CAC (+0.05%), and DAX (+0.03%) are a typical spread with a few minor exchanges like Portugal (+1.57%) standing out. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green open. All 3 major indices are implying a moderate gap higher lower of about +0.55% on average at the opening bell.

The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index (8:30 am) and a Fed speaker (Daly 3 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AAP, ALLE, AN, BRKR, CVS, ECL, EXPD, JELD, LPX, TRU, USFD, VMC, and ZTS before the open. Then after the close, A, AIG, ANDE, CAR, BYD, CLR, DVN, MCY, and OXY report.

With Congress gone for the week and limited news today, it looks like the bulls are still in charge. The winter storm gripping most of the country is likely to dominate the news. Even earnings are limited today. So, over-extension seems to be the main thing that might slow the bulls stepping back in after the 3-day weekend.

Follow the trend, respect support and resistance levels, and don’t chase the moves you missed. It’s all about achieving trade goals and sticking to your discipline. So, keep locking in your profits when you have them. Stick with your plan, maintain discipline and work your process. Remember it’s Friday and we have a 3-day weekend coming. So, pay yourself and get your portfolio set for the long weekend.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DAL, HYLN, UAL, VLO, WYNN, PENN, MRVL, ALLY, SOHU. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Little News Now and 3-Day Weekend Ahead

February 12, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets basically ground sideways on Thursday. The indecisive day left us with black-bodied Doji-type candles. However, even this indecisive trading left all 3 major indices at all-time high closes after a small morning gap higher. On the day, SPY gained 0.16%, DIA gained 0.06%, and QQQ gained 0.55%. The VXX lost a little over 2% to 16.28 and T2122 fell, but remains in the overbought territory at 86.76. Meanwhile, the 10-year bond yield rose to 1.165% and Oil (WTI) fell over a percent to $58.00/barrel.

After the close, DIS crushed on earnings ($0.32 vs. loss was expected) on a major revenue beat due to streaming. MWK did the same. However, both DVA and EXPE missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Bitcoin surged to a new record high Thursday as both MA and BNY joined the move toward acceptance of cryptocurrency. MA had previously partnered with cryptocard providers, but the new announcement was that they will be supporting so-called “stablecoins” which are cryptocurrencies that peg their value to some other asset (such as the dollar). Meanwhile, BNY said it would begin holding, transferring and issuing bitcoin on behalf of institutional customers. Markets saw both announcements as more evidence of the legitimization of bitcoin.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 28,002,240 confirmed cases and 486,922 deaths. However, the number of new cases continues the recent trend of falling quickly and is back down to the pre-election level as the average new cases are now 105,798 new cases per day. Still, deaths remain stubbornly high at 2,818 per day. President Biden said Thursday that deals have been inked to provide an additional 200 million doses of the PFE and MRNA vaccines (raising the total order to 600 million doses). More importantly, he said the country was on track to have given 300 million vaccinations by the end of July. In that vein, RAD will begin administering vaccinations today.

Globally, the numbers rose to 108,380,746 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,380,746 deaths. In good news, the world’s average of new cases is down again to 413,916 per day, but mortality remains high at 11,873 new deaths per day. In France, the Health Minister said that between 20% and 25% of all current cases in that country are of the UK variant. In Germany, they have imposed border checks and outright border closings to prevent mutations from arriving from the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Tyrol. The UK said its economy contracted 9.9% in 2020 due to the virus and Brexit. However, there was slight hope with the Q4 seeing 1% GDP growth.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red, but many markets (and economies) are closed now for the Lunar New Year celebration. India (-1.34%) and Australia (-0.63%) led the way lower. In Europe, markets are mixed so far today. The FTSE (+0.12%) and CAC (+0.06%) are flat, but the DAX (-0.51%) is down with the rest of the continent in a similar situation. Amsterdam (+0.95%) and Denmark (+0.92%) lead gainers while Portugal (-2.46%) and Russia (-1.01%) lead the losses as of midday. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a red open. All 3 major indices are implying a small gap lower of about 0.15% at the opening bell.

The major economic news for Friday is limited to Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am) and a Feb. speaker (Williams at 10 am). Major earnings reports on the day include AXL, D, FTS, HUN, LECO, MCO, and NWL before the open. There are no reports after the close.

The Impeachment Trial continues to grab headlines, but with the GOP having decided before the trial that there would be no conviction, it should wind down and possibly end today. Even earnings are limited today. So, the driver of the market today may be trader positioning in front of the 3-day weekend.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ASML, AMAT, MRVL, BYND, SOHU, CX, SPCE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Earnings and Jobless Claims Today

February 11, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up at the open Wednesday, but sold off sharply about 10am and then spent the rest of the day roller-coastering in a tight range the rest of the day. As a result, all 3 major indices printed black-body candles. The QQQ was a sort of Dark Cloud Cover and while the DIA closed at another all-time high close, it printed a Hanging Man candle. On the day, SPY was flat at -0.04%, QQQ was down 0.23%, and DIA gained 0.18%. The VXX gained 1.65% to 16.67 and T2122 also gained further into the overbought territory at 95.83. Bonds fell significantly to 1.124% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $58.35/barrel.

Fed Chair Powell said the US employment situation was bleak, saying the headline jobs number was dramatically understated. He went on to mention the largest drop in workforce participation since 1948. So, he reassured markets that the Fed will remain “patiently accommodative” (because of lessons the Fed learned the hard way in the past) and requested a “society-wide push for full employment (Congress to get Fiscal Stimulus passed again). Despite this calming continuity of message, markets did not have a strong reaction. However, the comments did cause a slump in Treasury yields where an expectation of inflation was muted.

On the earnings front this morning, PEP beat on earnings with a surge in revenue in Q4. As we might expect, AZN posted their highest Q4 sales in many years and beat on earnings as well. TSN beat on earnings, but came in over half a billion light on sales for the quarter. KHC beat on both lines.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 27,897,214 confirmed cases and 483,200 deaths. However, the number of new cases continues the recent trend of falling quickly and is back down to the pre-election level as the average new cases are now 105,798 new cases per day. Still, deaths remain stubbornly high at 2,818 per day. Los Angeles has had to temporarily close all vaccination locations due to a lack of vaccine. This comes as more states are relaxing restrictions, despite the CDC and other health experts warning against relaxing too early.

Globally, the numbers rose to 107,937,567 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,367,122 deaths. In good news, the world’s average of new cases is down again to 423,410 per day, but mortality remains high at 12,091 new deaths per day. As expected, Germany extended their lockdown to March 7. In the UK, the Gov’t. Science Advisory Group warned that a new “Bristol” variant may well infect people who have have the virus before or been vaccinated. Fortunately, this new variant is not the UK variant that is sweeping the globe, at least yet. Mexico granted emergency use approval for 2 Chinese vaccines. The Eurozone lowered growth forecasts by four-tenths of a percent based on continued drag from COVID restrictions. The still expect positive 3.8% growth in GDP in the next year.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green again, but many markets (and economies) are closed now for the Lunar New Year celebration. In Europe, markets are mostly green so far today. The FTSE (+0.05%) and CAC (+0.00%) are flat, but the DAX (+0.49%) is up and is more typical of the rest of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat to modestly higher open. The DIA is implying a +0.24% open, the SPY implying a +0.29% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.41% open at this point.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am), Fed Monetary Policy Report (11 am), and US Federal Budget (2 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AB, MT, AZN, BWA, CIGI, UFS, DUK, ENS, FAF, FMCC, GNRC, HII, NSIT, K, KHC, LH, TAP, NUS, PTAK, PBF, PEP, POOL, QSR, R, SON, TPX, THS, TSN, VNT, WSO, and ZBRA. Then after the close CC, DVA, DLR, EXPE, FLO, GDDY, ILMN, MHK, TEX, DIS all report.

As the Impeachment Trial continues to grab headlines and earnings leads the economic news. However, New Jobless Claims may have an impact this morning. Again, markets look a little tired, but the wall of worry is something the bulls love to climb. So, don’t bet on a pullback until you see it happening.

Follow the trend, respect support and resistance levels, and don’t chase the moves you missed. It’s all about achieving trade goals and sticking to your discipline. So, keep locking in your profits when you have them. Stick with your plan, maintain discipline and work your process. Also, remember we have a 3-day weekend coming. So, we may see some profit-taking the next couple days.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: IAG, WYNN, XLE, VLO, AMD, PSX, TSLA, BBBY. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching