Tech Antitrust Moves and Q1 GDP On Tap

Wednesday was a nothing burger day in markets as all three major indices opened flat and then traded in a tight range all day long.  A selloff the last half hour of the day took stocks out on the low end of that tight range.  This left plenty of wicks as the QQQ printed an indecisive Doji and the large-cap indices just delivered small black body candles with upper wicks.  On the day, SPY lost 0.09%, DIA lost 0.20%, and QQQ gained 0.05% (technically closing at another new all-time high).  The VXX fell 2% to 30.26 and T2122 dropped back to 61.22.  10-year bond yields rose to 1.489% and Oil (WTI) was up half a percent to $73.28/barrel.

Late in the afternoon, the Wall Street Journal CNBC reported that the CEO of CMCSA is considering a joint venture with VIAC or even purchasing ROKU in order to bolster the company’s place in the streaming market.  ROKU (+4.5%) and VIAC (+2.7%) surged on the news while CMCSA fell almost 4%.  President Biden also announced he will replace the head of FNMA (and Freddie Mac) after the Supreme Court ruled that the structure of the agency is unconstitutional and should have more accountability to the White House.  This came after the prior administration had tried to privatize the agency and reduce government oversight.    

During the say, AMZN announced that sales of its 2-day “Prime Day” sale were more muted than prior years.  With antitrust suits in full swing (to force more changes in favor of 3rd-party sellers), this year AMZN stressed the benefit to those 3rd-party sellers.  AMZN says that 3rd-parties sales grew more than first-party sellers and that 3rd-party’s made sales of $3.5 billion. (AMZN never releases sales figures for the event, instead only describing it in adjectives.)   However, industry analysts estimate this year’s sale brought in $10.5-$11 billion in sales.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, on very modest moves.  Only India (+0.66%) and Malaysia (-0.58%) managed even a half percent change from the previous close.  China was also mixed on small moves and Japan was unchanged.  However, in Europe, markets are moving smartly higher as of mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.59%), DAX (+0.68%), and CAC (+1.02%) are fairly typical of the spread across the continent, with only Russia (-0.57%) lagging.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a gap higher with the S&P retesting all-time record highs.  The DIA is implying a +0.50% open, the SPY implying a +0.48% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.56% open.

Most commodities look to start the day lower, despite weakness in the dollar overnight.  Wheat, in particular, seems to be getting hit, but metals are mixed as Gold is eking out a green number early today.  Interest rates are showing a slightly positive trend with the 10-yr yield up to 1.49% at 7:30 am.  For their part, most cryptocurrencies are green as Bitcoin is up nine-tenths of a percent this morning.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes May Durable Goods Orders, Q1 GDP, May Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and May Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 am), a Fed speaker (Williams at 11 am), and Fed Bank Stress Tests (4:30 pm).  Major earnings reports on the day include CAN, DRI, GMS, RAD, and WOR before the open.  Then after the close, FDX, NKE, and SNX report.

In a long, evening session, the House Judiciary Committee voted to give more funding to antitrust enforcement agencies tasked with keeping big tech companies in check. This was a blow to the likes of GOOG, AMZN, AAPL, and MSFT who had been fighting this along with several bills aimed at curbing big-tech monopolies. Interestingly, this passed with bipartisan support. So, watch the tech names for signs of rotation out...which would hurt overall markets due to their massive size in the main indices. However, inflation and the fear of Fed tightening still continue to be the main focus of the market. Along those lines, the Bank of England held steady again last night but they did acknowledge inflation may become an issue later.

The odds still favor following the trend and respecting support and resistance levels. So, if the QQQ and SPY are in blue skies on a bull trend, we have to acknowledge that in our trading. Still, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don't just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Keep locking in profits, moving your stops, and maintaining discipline. Follow your trading rules, don't chase, and stick to the trade plan. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TMDX, ATEC, WKHS, EGAN, FRBK, RETA, MAXN, NIO, CNC, LI, MNKD, AGEN, GOEV. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Powell Reassures Markets Again

Markets opened flat Tuesday and then rallied most of the day as bulls delivered some follow-through to Monday’s bullish reversal of last week’s action.  However, a selloff the last half hour of the day took stocks out away from their highs.  DIA was by far the least positive of the 3 major indices, printing a white-bodied Spinning Top candle.  However, the SPY and QQQ put in stronger bullish candles.  On the day, QQQ closed up 0.93% (to an all-time high close), SPY gained 0.53% (half a percent shy of a new all-time high), and DIA gained 0.20% and remains the laggard.  The VXX fell 5% to 30.87 and T2122 rose 1%, but remains just outside the overbought territory at 78.79.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 1.465% and Oil (WTI) was off eight-tenths of a percent to $73.08/barrel as the dollar fell again.

During the afternoon, Fed Chair Powell’s prepared remarks (for his House testimony) were released.  In the prepared statement, Powell said the Fed will “soon begin discussing” the tapering of QE (bond buying).  However, in questioning, he was very positive about the economic comeback and continues to maintain the position that the inflation being seen now is temporary in nature.  Powell said it is “very, very unlikely” that the US will see 1970s-type inflation.  He also repeatedly said that the pandemic remains a risk, specifically noting the slowing in the pace of vaccinations and the Delta variant of the virus.    

Bloomberg reported that semiconductor order lead times increased another 7 days during May.  The wait time on an average chip order (regardless of industry) is 18 weeks.  However, the primary cause of the increase in wait time is phone chips, which saw an increase to almost 26 weeks lead-time.  However, the report Bloomberg cited said that chipmakers like AVGO are cautioning against reading this as massive demand.  The CEO of AVGO told Bloomberg this is more of a case of their customers coming to terms with a not-just-in-time supply chain.  (Which means every link in the chain is just building inventory buffers now and that inventory will be worked back down in the future.)

Bitcoin briefly fell below $30,000 on Tuesday before rallying back to close just under $33,000.  The pullback put fear into crypto markets as a Death Cross set up and weak hands ran for the doors.  Bitcoin-related stocks (like MSTR and GBTC) suffered great volatility and/or losses on the day. Overnight Bitcoin continued its rebound rally and is trading near $34,000 in the premarket.

Related to the virus, new US infections are flat.  The totals rose to 34,434,803 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 617,875. These numbers are now under-reported again as some (mostly Southern) states have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is flat and at an average of 11,775 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths continue to fall and are now down to 306 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020).  The White House said Tuesday that the country will not meet its stated goal of 70% of American adults having received at least one vaccine shot by July 4.  They went on to say we are now on pace to be at 67% of adults in that state by the holiday.  We will also come up short on the goal of 160 million Americans being fully vaccinated by that date, now being on a pace to be at 151 million as of Independence Day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, on mixed trading. For example, Japan was dead flat, but Hong Kong (+1.79%), Taiwan (+1.53%), and Shenzhen (+1.00%) made nice gains.  Meanwhile, Indonesia (-0.88%), Australia (-0.60%), and India (-0.54%) were down a bit.  In Europe, markets are mostly in the red so far today.  The FTSE (+0.23%) is an outlier, but the DAX (-0.67%) and CAC (-0.59%) are typical of the continent at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a dead flat open.  The DIA is implying a +0.04% open, the SPY is implying a -0.02% open, and the QQQ is implying a -0.04% open at this hour.  Commodities are largely higher overnight with the Dollar down slightly.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Q1 Current Account (8:30 am), Manufacturing PMI (9:45 am), Services PMI and May New Home Sales (both at 10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and multiple Fed speakers (Bowman at 9:10 am and Bostic at 11 am).  Major earnings reports on the day include INFO, PDCO, and WGO all before the open.  Then after the close CNXC, FUL, KBH, and SCS all report. 

Inflation and the fear of Fed tightening continue to be the main talking points for the market. This comes despite some glaring examples in the other direction. For example, Lumber prices are down almost 50% and Corn is down 27% from the peaks in early May. Meanwhile, companies that use lumber and corn have pricing power...and their prices are not falling. So, they are reaping greater profits. In a perfectly efficient market, you might expect a huge rally in Housing and Food sectors, but that has not been the case since early May. The point is that it is not news, but the fear and rumor related to news that is drives markets. So, focus on the reaction and not the news itself in your trading.

The odds still favor following the trend and respecting support and resistance levels. That doesn't really help in terms of the large caps, but the QQQ is still holding the bullish trend. Still, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don't just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Keep locking in profits, moving your stops, and maintaining discipline. Follow your trading rules, don't chase, and stick to the trade plan. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AMSC, RIOT, MRO, NKLA, FANG, PTON, RUN, EXPR, PLUG. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

PreMarket Flat Before Powell Testimony

Monday was a risk-on day across the market.  The large-caps gapped up about half a percent and then all three major indices followed-through to the upside all morning. The afternoon saw a grind sideways in a tight range.  This left us with strong white candles in both large-cap indices and a Bullish Engulfing Hammer-type candle in the QQQ.  On the day, SPY gained 1.40%, DIA gained 1.75%, and QQQ gained 0.48%.  The VXX fell 6% to 32.58 and T2122 shot higher to just outside the edge of the overbought territory at 77.88.  10-year bond yields spiked, but remain lower, at 1.492% and Oil (WTI) spiked 2.76% to $73.62/barrel. This came as the dollar fell which caused commodity price rises as a result.

During the day Monday bitcoin made news several times.  The cryptocurrency fell below $32,000, before settling at $32,300. This came as China extended its crackdown on crypto-mining operations both geographically and ordering AliPay (online payments company) to do no business with entities related to crypto.  Jim Cramer also told his colleagues that he has sold “almost all” of his bitcoin holdings.  In a case of either bad or good timing (depending on how you look at it), MSTR announced they bought over 13,000 more bitcoin and their bitcoin holdings to $3 billion.  (However, their average cost for bitcoin purchase is $37,000…so they are underwater and averaged down today.)    

In miscellaneous business news, after the close, XOM announced it will cut 10% of its white-collar staff annually, following the GE model from the Jack Welch years.  Meanwhile, DAL announced it plans to hire 1,000 new pilots by next summer.  RIDE is taking heat from many of the print and electronic media sources, because top executives sold off major chunks of their stock in February, prior to the release of the company's terrible quarterly earnings in March.  CNBC also reported that SAFM is exploring the sale of the company to private ag investment firm Continental Grain.  The idea is to take advantage of the high price of chicken.  Early Tuesday, the EU announced a new investigation into GOOG for antitrust behavior related to ad technology.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall.  The totals rose to 34,419,838 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 617,463. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is flat and at an average of 11,502 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths continue to fall and are now down to 300 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020).  However, it appears we may have made the common mistake again of getting too complacent.  The Delta (Indian) variant continues to surge.  For example, Missouri has seen a six-fold increase in hospitalizations, due to the new variant and a lack of vaccinations coupled with ending restrictions.  Where the Delta variant made up just 10% of cases, Delta now accounts for 90% of the cases and almost all those patients are unvaccinated.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green.  The most notable move came as Japan (+3.12%) surged back from its Monday hammering.  Indonesia (+1.53%) and Australia (+1.48%) were the other two notable movers.  Hong Kong (-0.63%) was the leader of those in the red.  In Europe, a similar story is shaping up as of midday.  The FTSE (+0.38%), DAX (+0.10%), and CAC (+0.19%) are typical, but there are half a dozen exchanges in the red across the continent.  At 7:30 am, US Futures are flat.  The DIA is implying a +0.04% open, the SPY implying a +0.11% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.26% open.

The limited major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes May Existing Home Sales (10 am), Fed member Daly speaks (11 am), and Fed Chair Powell testifies at 2 pm (the first of two days of testimony).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.  

Interest rates are up slightly and Oil down two-thirds of a percent during premarket today. The dollar is also slightly stronger, which gives commodities in general a boost. With conflicting stories coming from different Fed members the last several days, don't be surprised if markets bide their time until Chairman Powell testifies this afternoon. Undoubtedly he will be grilled from both sides of the aisle on exactly when tapering of bond-buying and then interest rate hikes may begin. Those are obviously keys to the market psyche.

The odds still favor following the trend and respecting support and resistance levels. That doesn't really help in terms of the large caps, but the QQQ is still holding the bullish trend. Still, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don't just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Keep locking in profits, moving your stops, and maintaining discipline. Follow your trading rules, don't chase, and stick to the trade plan. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: HES, SFIX, LLY, CNC, KR, SPGI, LYFT, PLTR, FSR, MRO, FUBO, BA, RIG, CDEV, ICPT, PACB, WISH. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Fed Members Differ as Supply Chain Slows

Friday was a kick in the teeth for Bulls as the large-caps gapped down well over one percent and then markets ground sideways all day up until a strong selloff the last 5 minutes of the day.  This left the QQQ holding onto the uptrend by the skin of its teeth on a black spinning top and the large-cap indices printing ugly bottom-heavy black candles.  On the day, SPY low 1.67%, DIA lost 1.68%, and QQQ lost 0.78%.  The VXX shot almost 9% higher to 34.69 and T2122 dropped back to mid-range at 53.15.  10-year bond yield fell strongly again to 1.441% and Oil (WTI) rose almost three-quarters of a percent to $71.56.  This closed out the worst week for markets since October for large-caps, especially the mega-cap DIA.

During the day Friday, Fed members issued dueling opinions in interviews.  Non-voting Fed member Bullard said he could foresee a rate hike coming as soon as 2022 with both the economic gains and inflation running hotter than expected.  However, shortly afterward, voting Fed member Kaskari told an interview that he wants to keep the short-term interest rate near zero through at least 2023 (another 2.5 years).  He went on to say he believes the current inflation is being caused by supply chain constraints during the opening and will subside by year end.  More importantly, he said that he hopes and expects any change in FOMC policy (including bond-buying tapering) will be slow and orderly. Fed Chain Powell gets his say later this week when he testifies before both houses of Congress.    

In miscellaneous business news, AAL had to cancel 180 flights (about 6% of its normal schedule) this weekend due to maintenance issues and staffing shortages.  Monday is the start of AMZN’s 2-day “Prime Day” event.  However, supply chain issues (backlogs at ports in China and the US) that are adding 2-3 weeks to resupply timelines are likely to cause major headaches and limitations on what is available to sell.  The same holds true for BBY, COST, WMT and other retailers who have set up competing sale events.  Bitcoin is down 7% (just below $33,000) so far today as China intensified its crackdown on crypto mining operations. GOOG has closed its start-up incubator campus in London, announcing they will not reopen the facility closed during the pandemic.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall.  The totals rose to 34,406,001 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 617,166. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 11,158 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 291 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020.

Globally, the numbers rose to 179,320,883 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,883,427 deaths.  The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked.  The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 360,464 new cases per day.  Mortality, which lags, is also falling but remains at 8,186 new deaths per day.    

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red, some dramatically.  Japan (-3.29%) was the main standout and was the down over 4% at one point.  However, Australia (-1.81%), Taiwan (-1.48%) and Hong Kong (-1.08%) were among those that fell in sympathy.  This came on no particular news as China’s Central Bank held rates steady as expected.  In Europe, markets are mixed, but lean to the green side.  The FTSE (+0.03%) and CAC (+0.16%) are flat, while the DAX (+0.55%) is modestly higher at this hour.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a positive open.  The DIA is implying a +0.51% open, the SPY implying a +0.34% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.33% open.

The only major economic news scheduled for Monday is Fed member Williams speaking at 3 pm.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for Monday.  

Interest rates are starting the week lower as the 10-year bond yield fell to a 2-month low in overnight trading. This comes as Oil is flat. Jitters seem to be the order of the day without a good explanation for the Japanese market collapse today. Europe recovered nicely from the Asian weakness, but the bears have the trend in their favor in the US.

All trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don't assume trend, support, or resistance are always going to hold. Still, the odds favor following the trend and respecting support and resistance levels. Just keep locking in profits, moving your stops, and maintaining discipline. Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: INSG, SNAP, BNGO, AAPL, NNOX, TQQQ, FSLY, FTNT, ARKF. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Commodities Down Again, But Less

Jobless Claims were unexpectedly high before the open and markets were a little manic on Thursday.  The SPY waffled sideways all day, while the QQQ surged from open to close, and the DIA drifted lower all day.  This left both large-cap indices in indecisive candles with the SPY printing a Doji that did not break through resistance and the DIA printing a Spinning Top, which may have found support.  However, the QQQ printed a big white candle that closed at another all-time high.  On the day, SPY lost 0.03%, DIA lost 0.62%, and QQQ gained 1.27%.  The VXX fell to 31.88 and T2122 dropped down just above the edge of the oversold territory at 21.13.  10-year bond yields fell to 1.514% and Oil (WTI) dropped over 1.5% to $71.03/barrel.

As mentioned yesterday, the Chinese have begun flooding markets with their metals stockpiles in an effort to combat commodity inflation.  That move, plus a stronger dollar, hammered metal prices on the day as shown by Copper (-4.83%), Silver (-6.52%), and Gold (-4.72%). However, the good news on the inflation front wasn't limited to metals.  Soybean (-8.5%) have fallen 20% since May while Corn, Wheat, Sugar, and even Lumber (-9%) also fell sharply. CNBC's Jim Cramer went so far as to say that "commodity inflation is pretty much over" (not that his opinion is worth more than anybody else's). Still, on the other side of inflation news, related to Fed action, mortgage rates shot higher Thursday to an average of 3.25% (30-year fixed), up half a percent from February levels.    

Related to corporate taxes, Ireland has said “they want a compromise” and will fight against the Global 15% Minimum tax plan that has already been agreed by the G-7 and discussed by the G-20.  Essentially, the Irish Finance Minister Donohoe said that undercutting other country’s tax rates in order to get multi-nationals to hide/park their profits in Ireland is legitimate market competition.  As such, his country intends to fight hard at the OECD with the help of AAPL, GOOG, and others companies who currently stash their profits in Ireland.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall.  The totals rose to 34,377,592 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 616,440. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 12,697 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 316 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020. BAC joined the parade of Wall Street Banks that are demanding workers return to the office. 

Globally, the numbers rose to 178,264,362 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,859,365 deaths.  The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked.  The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 366,809 new cases per day.  Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 8,447 new deaths per day.  

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Malaysia (+1.16%), Hong Kong (+0.85%), and Shenzhen (+0.77%) led the gainers.  The losses were moderate, if wider-spread, but only Indonesia (-1.01%) showed a significant loss.  In Europe, markets lean heavily to the red side so far today.  The FTSE (-1.17%), DAX (-0.95%), and CAC (-0.62%) are typical of the spread as of mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a lower open.  The DIA is implying a -0.35% open, the SPY implying a -0.25% open, and the QQQ implying a dead flat open.

There is no major economic news or earnings reports scheduled for Friday.   

Interest rates and commodity prices continued lower overnight, with some notable exceptions. However, the fall was less than Thursday, even if the trend continues. What is unknown is whether this is just a reaction to China going all-in to fight inflation, whether the market believes the Fed, or maybe something unknown is at work. All we can really say is that Thursday was a reflation trade (tech up, value down) and it seems to be setting up for something similar early today.

All trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don't assume trend, support, or resistance are always going to hold. Still, the odds favor following the trend and respecting support and resistance levels. Just keep locking in profits, moving your stops, and maintaining discipline. Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Fed Stays Course But May Raise in 18mo

Markets ground sideways in a nothing burger until the Fed news at 2 pm.  From there, we saw a knee-jerk dive to the downside, followed by a sharp whiplash rally at 3pm that ended up fading again the last 15 minutes of the day.  This left us with wicks on the downside and black bodies on the candles of the 3 major indices.  However, it is fair to say the bears were more-or-less in control Wednesday.  On the day, SPY lost 0.56%, DIA lost 0.77%, and QQQ lost 0.37%.  The VXX rose to 32.07 and T2122 fell to 41.85.  10-year bond yields rose significantly to 1.579% and Oil (WTI) fell two-thirds of a percent to $71.66/barrel.

The big news for the day was the Fed data points and words.  While the Fed left rates unchanged (near zero) and continues to say there will be no rate hikes the rest of this year or next, the new “dot-plot” forecasts 2 rate hikes during 2023.  However, Chair Powell told reporters that the dot-plot “needs to be taken with a big grain of salt.”  In other words, he warned against taking the projection of two rate hikes in 2023 wasn’t an indication that the Fed would definitely raise rates then.  Powell also told reporters that the FOMC has not made any decisions about when to start tapering their bond-buying, which many had suspected would be announced at this meeting.   

In global news that impacts trading, Chinese efforts to curb commodity prices kicked into overdrive.  All Chinese state-owned companies were ordered to report their futures positions (to curb speculation) and the state-owned stockpiles of metals have also started to be released to the Chinese markets.  This can’t help but to have a global impact since China is one of the importers of every commodity.  In an unrelated story, early today there was another major internet outage (the second in 10 days), This one, reportedly caused by a failure in the network of AKAM, took out airline websites (LUV, UAL, ULCC), a broad number of Australian Banks, the Hong Kong stock exchange, and major financial platforms like Vanguard, E-Trade, and ADP briefly.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall.  The totals rose to 34,365,985 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 616,150. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,360 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 344 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020).  In an interesting move, the CEO of MS told all employees they must return to the office by September.  This lies in contrast to other companies that have decided some jobs and some work by most positions can be performed remotely even after restrictions are all lifted. 

Globally, the numbers rose to 177,878,272 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,850,411 deaths.  The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked.  The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 374,121 new cases per day.  Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 8,665 new deaths per day.  The WHO reported Wednesday that most of the world continues to see a decrease in new cases and deaths.  However, just the opposite is true in Africa where the agency said cases rose 44% and fatalities rose 20% this week alone.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red on modest moves.  Japan (-0.93%) was by far the biggest loser with Shenzhen (+1.23%) by far the biggest gainer.  However, the bulk of the region moved well less than half a percent and mostly to the downside.  In Europe, with the exception of Greece (+0.21%), the entire continent is trading modestly lower at this point in the day.  The FTSE (-0.40%), CAC (-0.02%) and DAX (unchanged) are typical.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower open.  The DIA is implying a -0.14% open, the SPY implying a -0.20% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.35% open.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am) and Treasury Sec. Yellen testifies at 10 am.  Major earnings reports on the day include CMC, JBL, and KR before the open.  Then after the close ADBE reports.  

The market is still digesting and figuring out what to do with the Fed news from yesterday. The FOMC continues to say they are "staying the course" and no changes are foreseen for the next 18 months. They did forecast interest rates rising a couple of times in 2023, but Chair Powell immediately went out of his way to say, in effect, "that's not a given, it may not happen." So, the market sees inflation now that the Fed says will lessen in early 2022, a booming economy that isn't quite as hot as some would like, and a Fed that says "Don't worry, we got this." ...What is a trader to do?

As always, follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don't just assume those levels will hold. All trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. Keep moving your stops, locking in profits, and maintaining discipline. Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets and Volatility On Pause for Fed

Following a PPI that came in showing 6.6% annual inflation (the highest since annual records were started in 2010, but still better-than-expected), May Retail Sales coming in lower than expected, and a NY Empire Mfg. Index that came in worse than expected, markets opened flat Tuesday.  Then after a small selloff early, they ground sideways the rest of the day.  Only a late-day mini-rally took us out up off the lows.  This left the SPY and DIA in black Hammer-type candles and the QQQ as a Bearish Harami.  Still, both the SPY and QQQ closed at the second-highest close of all time (second to Monday only).  On the day, SPY lost 0.16%, DIA lost 0.24%, and QQQ lost 0.65%.  The VXX gained 2% to 31.77 and T2122 rose, but remains in the mid-range at 70.97.  10-year bond yields were flat at 1.496% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 2% to $72.29/barrel.

In stock news after hours, LUV canceled 500 flights (15% of schedule) after the second straight day of computer system problems Tuesday.  ORCL beat on both the top and bottom lines, but guided forward at a lower-than-expected level.  The CFO of C also followed JPM’s suite from a day ago, telling a conference that they now expect a larger-than-anticipated drop (30% drop versus a year ago) in trading income this quarter.  He also said that consumers have paid down loan balances and loan income will also fall.  As a result, he expects revenue to drop roughly 15% year-on-year in Q2.  Finally, RCL has postponed its first sailing since the pandemic as 8 crew members tested positive during cruise prep.  So, all of the crew is now quarantined for 14 days and the cruise that had been scheduled to depart July 3 will sail on July 31.   

Bloomberg is reporting a consensus view essentially identical to CNBC reported yesterday on the Fed’s words and actions for today.  It is widely expected they will take no policy actions.  However, it is likely the FOMC will release wording that signals it is thinking about making a change to its policy bond-buying soon.  The dots (interest rate forecasts) are also expected to point toward a first interest rate hike in 2023.  All this would be consistent with what the Fed has said to date.  In other words, no rocking the boat, but an announcement that the dock is just over the horizon. Tone will be the key as markets look to parse words.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall.  The totals rose to 34,352,185 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 615,717. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,577 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 3356 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020).  

Globally, the numbers rose to 177,470,620 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,839,931 deaths.  The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked.  The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 377,371 new cases per day.  Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 8,770 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red.  Shenzhen (-2.57%) and Shanghai (-1.07%) led the region lower as Chinese May Retail Sales missed expectations by 1.25%.  (Still, they had 12.4% sales growth.)  In Europe, markets a re mixed on flat trading as the world waits on the Fed.  The FTSE (-0.02%) is flat while the DAX (-0.13%) is down slightly and the CAC (+0.09%) is up slightly.  The rest of the continent is in a similar situation on slightly larger moves.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointed to a mixed, flat open.  The DIA is implying a -0.11% open, the SPY implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.15% open at this point.

Wednesday is a heavy day for major economic news, headlined by the Fed. The news includes May Building Permits, May Housing Starts, May Import/Export Price Indices (all at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and then Fed Interest Rate Projections (short and long-term), Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Statement (all at 2 pm), and the Fed Press Conference (2:30 pm).  The only major earnings report on the day is LEN after the close.   

Today is likely a "wait and see" day until 2 pm. Housing data early is not likely to push the market "off the fence" either way while we wait for Chair Powell and hope he can hit "the perfect note" in his statement. With that said, expect a dull day at least until the Fed announcements. Then expect an over-reaction in one direction to be followed by a whiplash back the other direction shortly after. (That is the typical Fed day pattern.) Finally, it also usually happens that there is a bit of a rethink again overnight the night following the Fed statements. So, after 2 pm, it is likely to be a volatile period into Thursday.

As always, follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don't just assume those levels will hold. All trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. Keep moving your stops, locking in profits, and maintaining discipline. Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: EMR, SAND, TXN, BR, FB, QD, BNGO. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Market Waiting on Data or Fed Direction

Markets opened flat and then the large-caps sold off all morning, before trading sideways in a tight range most of the afternoon.  However, a rally the last hour of the day took stocks out very near their highs.  On the other hand, the QQQ sold off early, but started a rally about 10am that lasted the rest of the day.  This gave us a strong white candle and new all-time high close in the QQQ and the SPY.  Both the DIA and SPY printed Hammer-type candles.  On the day, SPY gained 0.23%, QQQ gained 0.96%, and DIA lost 0.24%.  The VXX gained a percent to 312.12 and T2122 fell back to the mid-range at 55.86.  10-year bond yields rose t o 1.496% and Oil (WTI) gained slightly to $71.03/barrel.

During the afternoon Monday, CEO Jamie Dimon said JPM has been “effectively stockpiling cash” rather than buying bonds or other assets.  He warned that the Covid-era trading boom is coming to an end, expecting less in trading revenue this Q2 as compared to a year ago.  He also said JPM disagrees with the Fed and feels “there is a very good chance inflation will be more than transitory.”  As a result, Dimon says the bank has been hoarding cash and he expects the net interest income for the year to be down from $55 billion to $52.5 billion.   

CNBC is reporting a consensus view on the Fed’s words and actions on Wednesday.  It is widely expected they will take no policy actions.  However, it is likely the FOMC will release wording that signals it is thinking about changing its policy on bond-buying.  The dots (interest rate forecasts) are also likely to point toward a first interest rate hike in 2023.  All this would be consistent with what the Fed has said in the past.  In other words, no rocking the boat, but an announcement that the dock is just over the horizon.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall.  The totals rose to 34,335,239 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 615,232. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,189 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 348 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020).  Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall.  The totals rose to 34,335,239 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 615,232. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,189 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 348 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020).    

Globally, the numbers rose to 177,086,088 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,829,038 deaths.  The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked.  The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 375,190 new cases per day.  Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 8,899 new deaths per day.    

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again.  New Zealand (+1.07%), Japan (+0.96%), Taiwan (+0.92%) and Australia (+0.92%) paced gainers.  Meanwhile, Shanghai (-0.92%), Shenzhen (-0.86%), and Hong Kong (-0.71%) led the losses.  In Europe markets are also mixed, but lean green so far today.   The DAX (+0.55%), and CAC (+0.45%), and FTSE (+0.31%) lead the continent, with Norway (-1.01%) a notable exception.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open.  The DIA is implying an unchanged open, the SPY implying a +0.10% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.14% open.  It seems markets are waiting on this morning’s data or perhaps even on more insight from the Fed.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes May PPI, May Retail Sales, and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), May Industrial Production (9:15 am), Apr Business Inventories and Apr Retail Sales (both at 10 am).  The only major earnings reports on the day are after the close when HRB, LZB, and ORCL report.   

Premarket seems to suggest that traders are waiting on more data. The inflation, sales, and manufacturing information may give us just such a push one way or the other. Just keep in mind that we sit at all-time highs, the QQQ is a little extended from its T-line, and the DIA can't get going (is diverging from the other major indices). In short, this means markets are undecided, rotating, or at least maybe more volatile.

As always, follow the trend and respect support and resistance levels. However, don't just assume those levels will hold. All trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. Keep moving your stops, locking in profits, and maintaining discipline. Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: LLNW, LAZR, BLNK, AMAT, MP, QCOM, TDOC, SAND. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

QQQ Leading Again in Monday Premarket

Markets started Friday off blah and just waffled sideways the rest of the day.  A last-minute rally left the QQQ and SPY near their highs for the day (SPY closing at another all-time high close).  However, the SPY closed as a Doji and the DIA as a Spinning Top, showing the indecisiveness.  On the day, SPY gained 0.18%, DIA gained 0.04%, and QQQ gained 0.26%.  The VXX fell almost 3% to 30.82 and T2122 shot back up into overbought territory at 89.57.  10-year bond yields was basically flat at 1.454% and Oil (WTI) rose three-fourths of a percent to $70.80/barrel.

During the afternoon Friday, a bipartisan panel of House Members agreed on and introduced 5 bills that would overhaul the 100-year-old antitrust laws in the US.  The group found that AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, and FB all hold monopoly power and the 5 bills would force those companies to exit certain businesses as well as impact the approval hurdles for companies that wish to merge or acquire other companies.  While a huge step, and significant, these bills still face a LONG and rough road to becoming law.  The full Judiciary Committee as well as the full House and then the full Senate would need to pass the legislation and then President Biden would need to sign.  In the meantime, huge lobbying efforts and donations from those richest of companies will be working against the bills.  However, smaller companies like SPOT, ROKU, and those that sell through the AAPL and GOOG stores support the changes. 

Sunday, Elon Musk said that TSLA would again begin accepting bitcoin in payment for its cars.  His tweet (what else would we expect) said “When there’s confirmation about 50% of clean energy usage by miners, TSLA will resume Bitcoin transactions.”  In other stock news, global shipping delays have gotten so bad that HD has now leased its own cargo ship (not containers, a whole ship) to begin operations in July.  This will free them from spot market capacity and rate fluctuations at the cost of large fixed costs.  Each ship will have about 10,000 or so TEU (20 ft Equiv. Units) of capacity, which is about 5,000 of the 40-ft. cargo containers.  RDS.A is also considering the sale of its stake in the largest US oil field, the Permian Basin (mostly in TX).  The sale could generate up to $10 billion. Then early today QCOM offered to buy at least a piece of Arm (computer cpu maker) if Softbank listed the company rather than sell it to NVDA. This comes as regulators appear to be leaning toward blocking the purchase of Arm by NVDA. Finally, RIDE was down hard in premarket as their CEO and CFO have resigned.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall.  The totals rose to 34,275,783 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 614,007. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,516 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 383 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020).  The first US cruise ship to resume operation had an ominous reopening.  After the 7-day cruise in the Caribbean, 2 of the 500 passengers tested positive.  

Globally, the numbers rose to 176,767,238 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,820,602 deaths.  The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked.  The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 375,431 new cases per day.  Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 9,063 new deaths per day.  

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but lean slightly green.  Japan (+0.74%) leads gainers while Shenzhen (-0.62%) and Shanghai (-0.58%) pace the losses.  However, the vast majority of Asian exchanges made slight moves either direct, with more on the green side.  In Europe, equities are green across the board.  The FTSE (+0.33%) leads the major exchanges with the DAX and CAC both at +0.17% so far this morning.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to very slightly green open.  The DIA is implying a -0.04% open, the SPY is implying +0.06% open, and the QQQ is implying a small gap higher of +0.32% at this hour.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  There are also no major earnings reports on the day.   

It looks like the bulls are continuing a push in the high-tech names as the QQQ is testing all-time highs in the premarket. However, both large-cap indices are much more muted and still struggling with resistance (the SPY to pull away after breaking through and the DIA to get back to a retest). In the commodity space, dollar strength is going to give a headwind as overnight trading saw Gold down 1.2%, Wheat down 2.7%, but Oil is up 0.60%. Again, folks are looking ahead to the Fed meeting this week (where many are expecting at least more hawkish language, if not actual policy changes).

Follow the trend (the one appropriate for your trading horizon) and respect support and resistance levels. However, don't just assume those levels will hold...they are all breached eventually. Beyond that, keep locking in profits as soon as you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting those singles and doubles.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Anti-Rotation At Play in Divergence?

Divergence was the word of the day on Thursday following a slightly hotter-than-expected CPI print for May.  The large caps gapped up, while the QQQ and IWM both opened flat.  However, the SPY vacillated all day while the DIA sold back off toward the prior close, the IWM sold off all day and the QQQ rallied in the morning and traded dead flat all afternoon.  This left the QQQ as a big beautiful white breakout candle, the SPY as an indecisive Spinning Top still sitting on the all-time high resistance, and the DIA as an ugly black high-wick candle that might still have held the uptrend.  IWM was also an ugly black candle that held trend.  On the day, SPY gained 0.48% (to a new all-time high close by fractions), DIA “gained” 0.09%, QQQ gained 1.04%, and IWM lost 0.83%.  This may even be a sign of the undoing of recent rotation into value names and back into tech high-flyers. Anti-rotation if you will. AMZN is a prime example from Thursday, The VXX fell almost 6% to 31.70 and T2122 fell further into the midrange at 67.21.  10-year bond yields fell significantly (despite the hot 4.9% CPI) to 1.44% and Oil (WTI) rose a quarter percent to $70.13/barrel.

During the afternoon Thursday, the Fed release statistics that showed US Household Net Worth rose to almost $137 trillion at the end of Q1 (fueled in large part by stock market and real estate price increases).  This was a 3.8% increase since the end of 2020.  During the same period, Household Debt grew 6.5% (fastest growth since 2006), Government Debt grew 6.5% (down from 10.8% the prior quarter), and Business Debt grew at 4.4% (an increase over Q4 2020). 

After a rough week, meme stocks are seeing a small (relatively speaking for meme stocks) relief rally.  GME is up 6%, CLOV is up 6%, AMC is up 6.4% in premarket trading.  For context, all of these stock are still up thousands of percent on the year, even after being more than 50% off the highs of the week.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall.  The totals rose to 34,275,783 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 614,007. These numbers are now under-reported again as some states (mostly Southern) have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 13,516 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 383 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020).  The first US cruise ship to resume operation had an ominous reopening.  After the 7-day cruise in the Caribbean, 2 of the 500 passengers tested positive.  

Globally, the numbers rose to 175,677,082 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,790,320 deaths.  The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked.  The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 385,051 new cases per day.  Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 10,127 new deaths per day.  In China, researchers have found a “batch” on new coronaviruses that are similar, but distinct from Covid-19.  One of them was genetically very close to the original strain of SARS-CoV-2.  

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again and once again in modest trading.  South Korea (+0.77%) and Thailand (+0.69%) led gainers while Shenzhen (-0.62%) and Shanghai (-0.58%) paced the loses.  However, in Europe, markets are green across the board so far Friday.  The FTSE is up 0.63%, the DAX up 0.55%, and the CAC up 0.78%.  This comes as DB reported that they expect “peak inflation” in the UK will be “close to 3%.”  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are tepidly green.  The DIA is implying a +0.19% open, the SPY is implying a +0.14% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.18% open.  It is worth noting that, like Thursday, 10-year bond yields are down again in premarket to 1.443%.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday is limited to Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  There are no major earnings reports on the day.  

Thursday, markets seemed to emphatically say that they believe the Fed about inflation being transitory and no reason for quick policy changes. At least the 10-year bond is following through in the same direction early today. With no news (unless you count a potential infrastructure spending deal between 10 moderate Senators, that has no been fleshed out yet) to drive action, it is quite possible we see drift today ahead of a summer weekend. At least at this point, it looks like the QQQ and SPY are trying to follow-up gains from yesterday, while the DIA is trying to reverse an ugly move from Thursday.

Follow the trend (the one appropriate for your trading horizon) and respect support and resistance levels. However, don't just assume those levels will hold...they are all breached eventually. Beyond that, keep locking in profits as soon as you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting those singles and doubles.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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