Infection Rate Surging

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As we wait on an election decision, the pandemic infection rate surged over 120,000 new cases on Thursday.  One has to wonder, with job growth beginning to slow and more than 21 million Americans still requiring unemployment assistance, can this massive rally be sustained? That’s something to ponder as we head into the weekend, and you plan risk forward.  With the Dow having gained more than 2200 points since last Friday’s low, a little profit-taking would not be out of the question.

Asian markets closed the week mixed but mostly higher.  European markets are trading lower this morning as they continue to monitor the U.S. election uncertainty.  U.S futures currently point to lower open, but as earnings results roll in and the Employment Situation number in focus, anything is possible as we slide toward the weekend.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On this Friday, we have more than 100 companies stepping up to report.  Notable reports include LNG, COTY, CVS, ENS, HSY, HMC, MAR, MYL, TU, TM & VIAC.

News & Technicals’

As counting votes continues to drag, and all the lawyers involved, it feels like we’re waiting on the judge decide who gets custody of us in the divorce.  While our focus remains on the election results, the pandemic continues to spread rapidly, with more than 120,000 new cases reported yesterday.  Even without government-mandated shutdowns, the concern is growing that business impacts could be severe throughout the winter months.  Numbers show that job growth is slowing and more than 21 million Americans still requiring unemployment assistance.  According to Moody’s report, the U.S.  economy is at a high risk of backtracking due to the surge in pandemic numbers.  Whoever wins the election will face the formidable challenge of avoiding a double-dip recession. 

After rising more than 2200 points from last Friday’s low, the bulls recovered and held the 50-day average, vastly improving the technical picture of all the index charts.  That said, the T2122 indicator shows an extreme short-term overbought condition making new long positions very high risk should profit-takers step in to capture gains ahead of the weekend.  Currently, futures markets point to a lower open, but as earrings roll in and markets wait on the Employment Situation number, anything is possible.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Extraordinary Bullishness

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Extraordinary

Extraordinary bullishness pushed indexes above their respective 50-day averages yesterday, vastly improving the index charts’ technical picture.  However, the extreme price move comes with the significant risk of a dramatic pullback as the pandemic infection rates surge to a new daily record, and hospitalizations reach critical levels in several states.  As Italy enters a shutdown, the ECB announced another 150 billion in bond buying, helping boost market around the world this morning.

Asian markets surged overnight following the massive Wall Street rally on Wednesday.  European markets are green across the board despite the rising economics of more lockdowns going into effect.  The U.S. futures are once again flying high this morning ahead of a massive day of earnings reports and an FOMC rate decision at 2 PM Eastern.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a massive day of earnings reports today, with more than 300 companies confessing quarterly results.  Notable reports include DDD, ADT, ALRM, BABA, AMCR, ABC, AINV, MT, ARNC, AZN, BGS, BLL, GOLD, BDX, BKNG, BMY, CZR, CNQ, CAH, CI, CNK, ED, CLR, CUBE, DISCA, D, DBX, DUK, EA, FLO, GM, GLUU, GPRO, GRPN, HLF, HFC, TWNK, HUBS, IAC, IRM, TREE, LSI, LIN, LYV, MAC, MAIN, MLCO, MCHP, MNST, MUR, NYT, NWSA, NLSN, NLOK, PZZA, PK, PTON, PLNT, PBPB, PLL, RMAX, RRGB, RDFN, REG, REGN, ROKU, SRE, SQ, STAG, STMP, STOR, SWTH, TMUS, TTWO, SKT, TRIP, UBER, VER, YELP, YETI, ZG, & ZTS.

News & Technicals’

As they continue to count votes is looking more and more like a Biden win is on the way.  Still, some are saying we won’t have a definitive decision with multiple legal challenges until late November or early December.  However, it looks as if whoever becomes President, the results in the Senate and House point toward gridlock, which the market appears to like gaging by its wildly bullish response yesterday. While everyone focused on election results, the pandemic infection rates soared to a new daily record of more than 100,000.  Hospitalizations also surged at an alarming rate, reaching record levels in Missouri, Oklahoma, Iowa, Indiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, and New Mexico.  Iowa and Missouri warned the hospital bed capacity could soon become overwhelmed.  Senate Leader Mitch McConnell is now suggesting an urgency to come to a stimulus agreement by the end of the year, boosting futures markets.  Also helping to boost market sentiment this morning, the ECB injected another 150 billion in bond buying as Italy enters lockdown.

Yesterday’s market surge was extraordinary as the bulls gapped the four major indexes above their respective 50-day morning averages.  In a late-day selloff, the DIA drifted back down below it 50-day while the SPY, QQQ, and IWM held on to this key psychological support.  Facing our biggest day of earnings reports so far this quarter as well as an FOMC rate decision, we can expect significant price volatility.   With the indexes, so extended traders will have to shoulder the substantial risk of pullback to enter long positions.  That said, with hopes of a stimulus deal on the horizon, entering short positions also carries substantial risk.  Set aside emotion and plan carefully in this very news-driven market.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

The Whitehouse Battle Continues

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Whitehouse Battle

With the Whitehouse battle likely to extend for days and the Congressional bodies remaining in mixed party control, uncertainty and the challenging price volatility are likely here to stay.  What does this mean for the hoped-for stimulus package?  Will the Presidential election become a long drawn out market damaging court battle?  A lot for investors to ponder as we now wait on an FOMC rate decision Thursday afternoon.  Expect considerable sensitivity to news events as the market tests price and technical resistance levels in the index charts.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher in a volatile session as the monitored polling results.  European markets are trading with modest gains across the board this morning.  After a night of wild price swing, U.S. Futures are trying to remain bullish ahead of earnings and the beginning of the 2-day FOMC meeting.  I think it fair to say anything is possible, so remain focused and flexible.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the post-election hump day, we have just under 90 companies fessing up to quarterly results.  Notable reports include ALB, ALL, AWK, APA, FUN, CXW, CRY, DCP, DK, ET, EPR, EXPE, EXR, FIT, GDDY, GDOT, HST, H, JKHY, KGC, LC, LBTYA, MRO, MTCH, MELI, MET, NUS, OUT, PAAS, PAYC, PRGO, PSA, QCOM, SGMS, UMH, UPWK, VOYA, WEN, & ZNGA.

News & Technicals’

Yesterday’s colossal rally was one of the best election day performance in stock market history.  Overnight futures have seen considerable volatility as the Presidential election is close to call, and election officials suggest it may take several more days to count up the results.  Last night was a much different result than many thought as the republicans gained seats in the House and held onto control in the Senate.  The House will remain under Democratic control setting up a challenging environment for whoever occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.  In a late-night speech, President Trump suggested a supreme court battle election battle is on the horizon.  I suspect a court contested election battle will keep the market on edge and the price volatility high in the days and possibly weeks ahead.  As we wait, the market will turn its attention toward the FOMC meeting that begins today with their rate decision scheduled for Thursday afternoon.  In other news, several states voted to legalize the recreational use of marijuana, and Florida voted to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour. 

In just 3-trading days, the Dow has rallied more than 1300 points off the Friday lows, taking the T2122 indicator from an oversold condition that now suggests an overbought condition.  With control of the Congressional body’s mixed, there remains considerable uncertainty about the likely stimulus plan’s size that will keep the market guessing.  An uncertainty that’s likely to extend as long or longer than the battle for the WhiteHouse.  The VIX closing above a 35 handle even as the indexes lept higher price action is likely to remain challenging as the indexes challenge technical resistance levels in the charts.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Do you feel Lucky?

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Do you feel lucky

Do you feel lucky?  A question all traders will have to ask themselves today as they plan for the possibility of massive volatility in the aftermath of election day.  Back to back, 400 point gaps will push the index charts into substantial price resistance levels.  As we always say in Right Way Options, gaps are gifts. Heading into such an uncertain outcome may be wise to capture those gains and reduce the risk because anything is possible in the next 24 hours.  Experienced day traders will have the upper hand while swing and position traders will have to roll the dice and hope.  Be very careful!

Asian markets rallied overnight, reacting to the Australian central bank lowering rates.  European markets are decidedly bullish this morning, with the FTSE and CAC surging more than 2% this morning.  Ahead of a very news-driven day with both earnings and economic data on the horizon, futures point to another big gap up open.   Expect significant price volatility.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

With nearly 90 companies reporting their quarterly results on this election day, we can expect considerable volatility.  Notable reports include BHC, CC, DS, ETN, EMR, EXC, EXPD, FOXA, GCI, IT, GAIN, GWPH, HTA, HUM, LPX, PRU, RHP, SYY, TRI, & W.

News & Technicals’

U. S. Futures early this morning suggest back to back 400 point gains!  The indexes have experienced a short-term oversold condition, but I must admit a bit of surprise to see the wild bullishness on an uncertain election day.  As polls open across the country, businesses have boarded up, bracing for the possibility of riots in the aftermath.   Although the voting will be over, will all the uncertainty be over, or will this election drag on being contested?  On the virus front, Connecticut decided to roll back reopening as infection rates continue to surge. Let’s hope for the sake of the economy; this is not a trend that accelerates across the country with infection rates rising and antibody drugs in short supply. 

With another big morning gap up, traders holding long positions may want to consider it a gift and take the profits ahead of the possible election results volatility.   It’s entirely possible the T2122 indicator could flip from oversold to overbought with the substantial gaps in the last couple of days.  Remember the wild market volatility of past election days as you plan your risk heading into the close today.  If the morning gap holds to the open, keep in mind the DIA, SPY, and IWM will be testing significant price resistance levels.  Place your bets and roll the dice because anything is possible over the next 24 hours.  Adept day traders will have the upper hand as swing and position traders will find it nearly impossible to hold on to an edge. The question is, Do you feel Lucky?

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bulls Fight Back

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Fight Back

The bulls indicate a willingness to fight back this morning, with the market finally bouncing from a short-term oversold condition.  That said, anything is possible in the next few days as businesses shut down and board up their building in anticipation of the possible election aftermath.  A quick study of the enormous emotional price swings during the 2017 election would suggest whipsaws and full reversals are possible in the coming days.  Plan your risk accordingly.  Experienced day-traders will likely have the upper hand so expect substantial price volatility over the next few days.

Asian markets closed green across the board last night, with China reporting growth in manufacturing activity.  European markets are also bullish this morning despite news of the pandemic related lockdown of England this weekend.  Ahead of earnings, PMI and ISM Manufacturing, and construction spending data, the U.S. futures are leaping higher this morning as a relief rally begins.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have nearly 70 companies stepping up to report quarterly results this Monday.  Notable reports include AMC, AMCX, AWR, CWH, CDW, CLX, CVI, FANG, EL, FE, FRPT, IR, LEG, LDOS, L, LL, MPC, MDLZ, NI, ON, PYPL, O, SWKS, RIG, VNO, WM, & WMB.

News and Technicals’

After a rough week of selling that tested the DIA 200 and 500-day averages, the bulls are trying to get back to work this morning, pointing to a substantial gap up at the open.  We closed last week with the T2122 indicator suggest and extreme oversold condition in the short-term, but we will have to be careful with such a strong bounce on the eve of such a news-driven Presidental election.  According to reports, businesses have begun boarding up windows and shutting down, fearing the possibility of riots breaking out based on election results.  Over the weekend, England, a countrywide lockdown of all non-essential business as Covid cases continue to rise across the eurozone.  The U.S. cases spiked to a record high on Friday, with nearly 100K new infections reported.  One has to wonder what kind of policy impacts we might face in the U.S. to combat COVID once the election is over?

With markets currently pointing to a considerable bounce this morning, we should expect the massive price volatility to continue as election and pandemic uncertainty looms.  The relief rally could quickly start a short squeeze trader hurry to cover positions held over the weekend to preserve profits.  However, with the possibility of politically charged news over the next few days, traders will have to remain very nimble.  What for quick intraday whipsaws or even full price reversals that could occur overnight.  Just remember the massive price swings in 2017 as the election emotion shifted violently.  Adept day traders will have the upper hand, with swing and position traders having little to no edge as the future unfolds. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Tech Giants

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Darn good earnings from the big tech giants after the bell have not received their typically very bullish response as election and rising infection rates across the county weigh on investor’s minds.  Futures markets are trying to rally off the overnight lows this morning, but there is a palpable uncertainty as we head into the weekend.  Technically speaking, the indexes are in a short-term oversold condition, but it may not be easy to inspire a bullish defense of these price levels.  Continue to expect substantial price volatility driven by news events.

Asian markets closed in the red across the board overnight, with APPL suppliers selling off strongly in reaction to the iPhone sales decline.  European markets trade around the flat-line this morning as they grapple with new virus related lockdowns and uncertain outcome of the U.S. elections.  Facing just over 100 earrings reports and a reading on Personal Income futures, markets are trying to rally off of overnight lows but at this time point to a gap down open.  Plan your risk carefully, heading into the uncertainty of the weekend.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We get a little break on earnings reports this Friday, with just over 100 companies reporting quarterly results.  Notable reports include CVX, ABBV, MO, BAH, CHTR, CL, FTS, GT, HON, LHX, MMP, NWL, NVO, PSX, PBI, RUTH, SJR, USS, WPC, & WY.

News and Technicals’

Although the big techs reported strong earnings after the bell yesterday, it appears it was not enough to overcome election and virus uncertainty.  Euro Zone topped GDP forecasts for the 3rd quarter, but new lockdowns in France and Germany have raised double-dip recession worries.  With the presidential election in its final days and polling numbers beginning to tighten, we should continue to expect significant price volatility as the market tries to price the possible outcome.  We can see this uncertainty in the treasury yields as they continue to slide south this morning. 

Technically speaking, the small relief rally we experienced yesterday was nice but fell significantly short of boosting bullish confidence.  Futures markets trading in the red all night but this morning lifting slightly off the overnight lows.  Keep an eye on the DIA 200-day average.  If the bulls defend this vital support, perhaps the process of repairing the technical damage in the charts can begin.  However, if the bears pile on heading into the weekend, breaking this level, the DIA could drag the other indexes lower and threatening a test of their 200-day averages.  With so much swirling uncertainty, it would not be a surprise if investors cut risk heading into the weekend, so stay focused and protect your capital.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Data Deluge

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Data Deluge

After the worst day of selling since June, the market faces a data deluge with several tech giants rounding out the day after the bell.  Should they report well, may finally get some relief heading into the weekend.  Should they disappoint or guide lower like MSFT, Friday could be a painful day heading into the uncertainty of the weekend.  With infection rates surging over 80,000 yesterday here in the U.S. and news that France and Germany are going into nationwide lockdowns, fear of a double-dip recession is growing fast.  Plan your risk carefully!

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight in reaction to the Wall Street Plunge.  European markets are choppy this morning, hovering around the flatline with an ECB decision in focus.  Ahead of a massive day of earnings and economic data, U.S. futures are trying to hold on to some positive numbers.  Hold on tight and prepare for another day of challenging news-driven volatility.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Thursday is the biggest day on the earnings calendar this week, with more than 250 companies fessing up to quarterly results.  Notable reports include GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, FB, FLWX, AOS, ANN, ATVI, AMT, BUD, APO, CAR, BAX, BWA, CAKE, CHD, CMCSA, COP, CS, DVA, DVN, DLR, DNKN, FTNT, GLPI, LMUN, IP, K, KDP, KHC, KTOS, LPSN, LTC, MTX, MPW, MGM, TAP, NOK, OHI, OSTK, PENN, PCG, RL, RDS.A, SNY, SHAK, SHOP, SO, SPOT, SBUX, STNE, TROW, TPR, TWTR, X, VRTX, WU, WWE, XYL, YU< & ZEN.

News & Technicals’

After the biggest day of selloff since June, U.S. Futures point to a modest bounce this morning.  Today will be a massive day of data with our most important day of earrings reports since the beginning of the 4th quarter earnings season.  The big tech market-moving reports AMZN, AAPL, FB & GOOGL occur after the bell, which means anything is possible Friday morning, so plan your risk carefully heading into the close.  Treasury yields are moving slightly lower this morning ahead of the 3rd quarter GDP economic growth figures at 8:30 AM Eastern.  If that’s not enough data to digest, we will also get the latest reading on the weekly Jobless Claims.  Concerns continue to grow for the possibility of a double-dip recession, and France and Germany initiate nationwide lockdowns to combat surging infection rates.  Daily infection number topped 80,000 here in the U.S. yesterday.  With just 5-days to the Presidential election, the market uncertainty as to what comes next as the index chart technical damage grows.  If the big tech firms perform well this afternoon, the market could get a little relief.  However, if any of them fall short of spectacular results such as MSFT, the path into the weekend could be lead by the bears. 

With the DIA now so close to its 200-day average, it would seem a test of that level is very likely in the days ahead.  Of course, everything could quickly reverse if a stimulus deal is agreed upon, but the evidence is now pointing to 2021 for that to occur.  Stay focused and flexible, and always remember that cash is a position often underutilized in such troubled times.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Technical Damage Increasing

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Technical Damage

The bulls worked hard to defend the 50-day average of the QQQ yesterday, even as the bears added technical damage to the DIA and SPY charts yesterday.  I think there was a significant hopefulness that MSFT would produce an earnings report to support this effort, but with the company offering up weak revenue guidance, hope quickly faded.  Factor in more stimulus delay’s rising infection rates as well as political uncertainty, and it’s no surprise that the bears are gaining ground. 

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight as concerns of economic impacts continue to grow with rising infection rates.  European markets grappling with all the uncertainties trade sharply lower this morning.  U.S. Futures ahead of a big day of earnings and economic data point to a punishing gap down, adding significant technical damage to the index charts.  Hang on; it could be a very volatile day!

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The earnings reports ramp up this Wednesday with more than 100 verified companies stepping up to quarterly results.  Notable reports include AEM, AMGN, NLY, ANTM, BX, BA, BOOT, BSX, EAT, CHDN, DB, DRE, EBAY, EPD, EQIX, ESS, ETSY, FSLY, FCAU, F, GRMN, GD, GE, GILD, GSK, GRUB, HES, LVGO, MAS, MA, NDLS, NSC, ORLY, PINS, R, SIX, RGR, SPWR, TDOC, TUP, UPS, V, WELL, WDC, WH, & TUMC.

News & Technicals’

Uncertainty settled the market into a choppy trading range most of yesterday, with bears ultimately gaining the edge by the close of the day.  After the bell, MSFT reported better than expected but guided revenue lower, adding some selling pressure in aftermarket trading.  It could be a rough day for some tech giants as FB, GOOG, and TWTR CEOs get grilled by a Senate committee.  They hope to convince the Senate not to change liability laws that currently allow social media site protections that mainstream media outlets don’t enjoy.  Should the laws change, it could forever change the social media industry.  The delays continue to pile up on the stimulus front, with some now suggesting a deal may not happen until early 2021.  Combine that with another big day of reported infections and rising deaths, and markets worldwide feel the pressure this morning. 

Yesterday’s bearish follow-through day of selling added significant technical damage to the DIA and SPY charts.  The QQQ managed a weak bounce off its 50-day average but with the market pointing to a nasty overnight reversal that will drop the index below this critical technical level.  Facing a big round of earnings reports, International Trade and Petroleum numbers volatility will remain high, and I suspect that will continue through the election and possibly beyond.  One possible bright spot is that with this morning’s gap down, the T2122 will show a short-term oversold condition.  That said, it may be difficult for bulls to find inspiration amid all the economic and political uncertainty.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Psychological support

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Rising infection rates and concerns of more economic impacts, brought out the bears yesterday, breaking the psychological support of the 50-day average in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ.  Although the market seems certain government stimulus will eventually happen, Congress’s inability to reach a deal before the election puts tremendous pressure on earnings performance.  Will earnings be enough amid so much future uncertainty?

Asian markets traded mixed but mostly lower overnight.  European markets trade cautiously mixed this morning as the monitor earnings and the surging virus numbers.  Here in the U.S, ahead of a big day of earnings and economic news, the bulls are trying to put on a brave face pointing to a gap up open that may prove to recover the 50-day average in the SPY and QQQ.  Expect another day of news-driven price volatility.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have more than 90 companies reporting as 4th quarter earnings ramp up on the Tuesday earnings calendar.  Notable reports include, MSFT, MMM, AMD, AFL, AKAM, SAN, BP, CAT, CNC, CYH, GLW, CROX, DENN, ECL, LLY, FEYE, FSLR, BEN, HOG, IVZ, JBLU, LH, MKTX, MRK, NVS, RTX, QSR, SPGI, SHW, SSTK, SWK, & XRX.

News & Technicals’

Rising virus infections and no sign of stimulus from Congress brought out the bears yesterday, creating significant technical damage to the index charts.  Today we have a big round of earnings reports that include market movers such as MSFT, AMD, and CAT.  Still, as infection rates hit new records, the uncertainty may continue to weigh heavily even if earnings results come in bullishly.  The WHO yesterday said gaining control of this new virus surge may require significant sacrifice, and hinting more restrictions may be on the horizon.  U.S. Treasury yields are moving lower this morning as market participants are increasingly concerned about the viral upsurge and its potential economic impacts.  The Senate confirmed Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court yesterday and blocked an attempt to extend the voting deadline in Wisconsin, a central battleground state in the presidential election. 

With the DIA, SPY, and QQQ all closing the day below their 50-day averages, the index charts’ technical damage is starting to become a significant concern.  However, as earrings roll out this morning, the bulls are trying to put on a brave face pointing to a gap up open that may suggest a defense of this critical psychological level on the SPY and QQQ this morning.  The question to be answered, can earrings overcome the concerns and the possible economic impacts of COVID in the absence of governmental stimulus?  One thing we can count on is that price volatility and sensitivity to news will continue to challenge even the most adept traders trying to navigate the uncertain path forward.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Perfect Storm of Market Uncertainty

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Perfect Storm of Market Uncertainty

Could this be the perfect storm of market uncertainty? Election, new record infection rates, an earnings deluge, and a big week of economic data lining up to provide the potential for incredible price volatility.  An environment best suited for very adept day traders that quickly react to morning gaps, whipsaw, and news-driven intra-day reversals.  All other traders will find it difficult to impossible trade with an edge as the market reacts.  Consider the risk carefully, and always remember protecting your capital is one of a trader’s primary jobs.

Asian markets traded mixed overnight as virus infections surge, and oil prices fall.  European markets trade in the red this morning, with the DAX down more than 2%.  U.S. futures point to a nasty gap down at the open ahead of earnings data and the latest reading on New Home Sales.  Prepare for a wild week of uncertainty.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Monday earnings calendar, we have 30 verified companies stepping up to report quarterly results.  Notable reports include AGNC, ACC, BYD, CAJ, CINF, FFIV, HAS, NOV, OMF, PKG, & TWLO.

News & Technicals

With the election just one week away and a severe rise in pandemic infections, U.S. futures reflect the incredible uncertainty.  With infection rates hitting a new record high, hospitalizations are rapidly increasing, and the death rates rise once again, determining any company’s market value amid all the impacts is near to impossible.  That said, traders should expect wild price volatility to continue with extreme sensitivity to the news cycle.  One bright light is the hope for a vaccine to combat the virus that could be available by early December but for small businesses, just barely holding that is little solace.  Current market conditions favor the experienced day trader, and swing traders will find it very difficult to trade with an edge.  Remember that just because the market is open does not mean you have to risk your hard-earned capital.  One of the trader’s primary jobs, forgotten during uncertain markets, is to protect your money.  Keep that in mind as you plan your risk forward.

Besides the election and pandemic, the market faces an earnings deluge and a big week of market-moving economic reports pouring rocket fuel to potential volatility.  Expect large moring gaps, news-driven whipsaws, and intra-day reversals as the market tries to price such incredible uncertainty.  Of course, we can’t forget the possibility that Congress could at any time announce a stimulus package.  Plan your risk wisely.

Trade Wisely,

Doug