Right Way Options Morning Videos Archives - Page 75 of 175

No Price Too High?

January 8, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Bulls continue to run, and no price seems too high, setting new records as traders and investors hope for more federal stimulus. Today we get the latest reading on the Employment Situation, but it may not matter as we saw on Wednesday when private payrolls declined and the market soared. That said, stay focused and prepared because if a bearish move were to begin, price supports are painfully lower so, have a plan. Also, keep in mind, this could be a particularly newsy weekend on the political front.

Overnight Asian markets mostly rose, with the NIKKEI soaring 2.36%. European markets trade higher this morning, and ahead of the Employment Situation report, U.S. futures point to more record highs. Remember to take some profits after such a steep rally as we head into the weekend.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have had a very light day on the Friday earnings calendar with only one verified report coming from the small-cap company LEDS.

News & Technicals’

The market continued to rally after congress certified the Biden presidency. In the final days of the Trump administration, there has been a call to invoke the 25^th amendment to remove him from power. Congress is also threatening the 2^nd impeachment to remove the president. How these events might impact the market is anyone’s guess. As of now, the bulls seem very confident the Biden administration will put the printing presses into overdrive, adding additional federal stimulus, resulting in new market records with the Dow more than 1100 points above the Monday low. Sadly at the same time, the daily death rate from the pandemic also set a new record, topping 4000 for the first time.

A look at the index charts, and there is not much to say other than the bulls remain in control, and no price seems too high as traders and investors rush into already extended stocks. Today we will get a reading on the Employment Situation. Consensus suggests job growth declined in December due to pandemic restrictions. Still, I’m not sure that matters in this current environment as we saw on Wednesday with private payrolls falling and the Dow rallied sharply. The T2122 indicator is once again signaling a short-term overbought condition, and the VIX remains elevated above 20 handles as we continue to push higher. Stay with the trend and stay focused because a profit-taking pullback has the potential of beginning at any time and could be rather steep with not much for nearby price support.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Disgraceful Display

January 7, 2021 by Doug Campbell

After a hideous and disgraceful display of politically fueled violence, Congress went back to work to certify the election for our Joe Biden. Let’s hope this country can now begin to heal. The bulls are clearly in control with hopes that more government stimulus is on the way under the new administration. Futures point to a modestly bullish open ahead of our biggest day of earnings this week and an economic calendar that includes a reading on Jobless Claims.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher while China telecom shares plunged after the flip-flopping NYSE delisting decision. European markets are mostly higher this morning, and the U.S. futures indicate new market records at the open. Keep in mind before the bell tomorrow; we will get the latest reading Employment situation number, so plan your risk accordingly.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have our most significant day with 21 confirmed reports. Before the bell, we will hear results from ANGO, AYI, BBBY, CAG, CSVI, HELE, LNN, LW, NTIC, PKE, REVG, SCHN, STZ, WBA, & WEI. After the bell, ACCD, AEHR, DCT, FC, MU, PSMT, & WDFC.

News & Technicals’

In my opinion, yesterday’s attack on the U.S., the capital, was one of the most shocking and disappointing events as our countrymen disgraced our republic. As a former military officer, I will pick up my M16 and defend the people’s right to protest. However, no matter your cause, there is no excuse for violence that puts our fellow countrymen in harm’s way. There is no excuse for this kind of behavior! After a very long night session, Congress certified the election for president-elect Joe Biden. Let’s hope the healing can now begin.

The bulls were out in force yesterday as it became evident that the Senate would flip after the runoff elections in Georgia, with the market celebrating a hopefulness of more government stimulus. The DIA and IWM closed at new record highs while the SPY pullback late in the day, losing its hold on an intraday record high. Trends remain bullish in the DIA, SPY & IWM while the QQQ displays a bit of weakness breaking its short-term uptrend. This morning, futures point to modest gains, ahead of International trade numbers and the weekly Jobless Claims report. As you plan forward, keep in mind that we will get the Employment Situation number before the bell on Friday, which is often a market mover.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Political News

January 6, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Political news out of the Georgia runoff election and the Congressional vote to certify the Biden presidency with efforts to block the process could set off price action fireworks in the market today. The bulls have defended support levels, but they fell just short of clearing the price resistance above at the close yesterday. With the VIX remaining elevated, be prepared for some news related price volatility, and don’t forget the FOMC minutes’ release this afternoon.

Overnight Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher as energy stocks surged following the OPEC action. European markets see green across the board this morning, while the U.S. Futures offer up a mixed bag of results with the Dow higher and the other indexes modestly lower heading into the open. Stay focused and flexible as anything is possible on this very political new driven day.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Hump Day earnings calendar, we have nine verified reports. Before the bell, we will hear from GBX, MSM, RPM, SMPL, & UNF. After the bell, LNDC, RELL, RGP, & SAR will report.

News & Technicals’

We face an interesting day in the market with a lot of political news that has the potential to move the market. First, we have the runoff elections that are drawing closer to flip the Senate raising concerns it will clear the deck for higher taxes. We also Congress try to certify the Biden election win, but a group also moves to block the effort, and protests have already begun. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 1% for the first time since March in reaction to current Georgia runoff results, and Bitcoin surged above $35,000 for the first time. While politics preoccupy the market, the daily death toll hit new records as more than 3800 Americans succumb to the virus. Sadly, a grisly reminder we may have a long way to go to win this pandemic battle.

Yesterday’s bullish price action lifted the index charts just enough to challenge price resistance but failed to clear the level by the close. We should plan for the possibility of price volatility based on the political wrangling in Congress and Georgia. We also have some economic news to keep an eye on, such as releasing the FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM Eastern to create some price action fireworks. The VIX remains elevated as we attempt to rally, and the Absolute Breadth Index continues to show a concerning decline. Stay with the bullish trend but stay on your toes should the sentiment quickly shift.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Reason for Caution

January 5, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Yesterday selling us reminded us that bears still exist and that an overextended market condition can produce quick and painful selloffs. What happens next could be very important to the short-term future direction of the market. If the bulls are strong enough to defend yesterday’s lows over the next few days, Monday’s price action will be chalked up to volatility. However, if the bears show the ability to create a lower low in the next few days, they could gain the upper hand can create technical damage in the index charts. Expect the Georgia runoff election news to create pice sensitivity over the next 24 hours.

Overnight Asian markets recovered from early losses after the NYSE reversed its Chinese telecom delisting decision. European markets see modest losses across the board this morning as England goes into a nationwide lockdown. U.S. futures lose overnight gains turning modestly bearish as we head toward the open with ISM Mfg. Data in focus at 10 AM Eastern.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have twelve companies listed but only one verified report. Keep an eye on SGH reporting after the bell today.

News & Technicals’

A late afternoon decision by the NYSE reversed their decision to delist three Chinese telecom giants helping the overnight futures trade higher. Yesterday’s pop and drop price action left behind bearish candle patterns as the market reacted to Iranian military action, the pending Georga Senate runoff election, and surging pandemic concerns. Although there is a reason for caution heading into the Tuesday open, the bulls fought back, holding on to essential supports such as the psychological Dow 30,000. Remember, one day does not make a trend, so what happens next will be very important to the market’s short-term direction. Should the bulls prove strong enough to defend and recover broken trends, yesterday’s selloff could prove to be nothing more than volatility. However, if the bears can produce a follow-through, lower low in the next few days, they could gain the upper hand.

News out of Georgia may well create some price sensitivity and volatility today and into tomorrow open. Plan your risk carefully. Also, more news such as England going into another pandemic triggered, countrywide lockdown, New York considering making it a crime to avoid vaccination, or the possible addition of more public restrictions could add to the price volatility. Stay on your toes and be careful not to overtrade in this environment.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Record-Setting

January 4, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The afternoon New Year’s eve record-setting rally looks to extend this morning as the bulls step on the gas on this first trading day of 2021. Trends remain bullish as vaccine results will produce a much better year for business. That said, hospitalizations hit new records as well over the holiday shutdown. One has to wonder what kind of restrictions will businesses have to face under a new administration should the surge continue. Long story short, have a plan of action to protect your capital should the market stumble.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher overnight, and European markets are decidedly bullish this morning. U.S. futures point to bullish open ahead of PMI Mfg. and Construction Spending numbers with a very light day on the earnings calendar. Expect possible political news sensitivity as the tenuous transition of power begins.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Although we have several small-cap stocks listed on the earnings calendar, their reports are unconfirmed, and thus no notable earnings.

News & Technicals’

On the first trading day of 2021, the U.S. Futures look to extend the late New Year’s eve record-setting rally. With an accommodative Fed, more Governmental stimulus rolling out, and high hopes that vaccines will put the pandemic behind us, there is a reason for all the bullishness. However, with indexes already at record highs, high unemployment, and substantial economic damage to businesses, traders will have to remain focused and ready to act should the market stumble. Market P/E valuations are very high as we enter the new year, and with economic restrictions still in place, will companies be able to produce healthy enough earnings to sustain current prices? Hospitalizations hit new records highs over the holiday and did post-pandemic travel. How will the new administration respond if infection rates continue to surge? A lot to ponder as we kick-off the new year.

One thing for sure at the moment is that the index trends remain bullish, and there seems to be a relentless willingness to buy up stocks no matter the valuation. Some suggest we are in a growing bubble, and while that may be true, bubbles can continue to extend for months. As traders, all we can do is stay with the trend as long as it lasts, follow our rules, and avoid overtrading. Always have a prepared plan should the bears suddenly have reason to come back to work. Trust me, they will, and it will likely occur very suddenly. With this morning gap up to new records, the T2122 indicator will once again show a short-term extended condition. The Absolute Breadth Index remains in a concerning decline, and keep in mind the VIX-X remains above a 20 handle as we set new records in the indexes.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bears make an appearance.

December 30, 2020 by Doug Campbell

The bears decided to make an appearance yesterday, raising some concern in the IWM as it slipped below its uptrend. Although printing some bearish candles, the DIA, SPY, and QQQ uptrend remain intact as the bulls fight back in the premarket, suggesting a bullish open. Consider your risk carefully, as the volume could quickly diminish today, making it difficult for the bulls to sustain the opening pop. Plan your risk carefully as we slide into the holiday shutdown.

Overnight Asian markets traded mostly lower as China revised 2019 GDP growth lower. European markets trade flat to modestly lower this morning despite the positive vaccine news with stocks lacking momentum. The U.S futures bucking the trend point to a higher open as the bulls fight to regain record territory once again. Momentum could be a problem today, so stay focused and be careful not to get caught up in fear of missing out.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

There are no confirmed earnings reports today.

News & Technicals’

Vaccine is back in the news today, with the Oxford-AstraZeneca gaining approval in the U.K. McConnell blocks the $2000 direct payments approved just yesterday by the U.S. House. Then tied the bill to other legislation that includes election security as well as tech. McConnell also asked the Senate to approve the military spending bill that was vetoed by the President. Colorado has confirmed the first case of the new, more infectious strain of COVID discovered in the U.K. One of the newly elected Congress died yesterday in a Louisiana hospital from COVID-19 just days before being sworn in and taking his seat. He was only in his 40’s.

Although the bears came out to play yesterday, leaving behind some concerning daily candle patterns, yet three indexes remain in bullish trends. The very extended IWM index is of most concern following the Tuesday bearish engulfing candle to slip below its current uptrend. However, we once again see the futures pointing to a bullish open as the familiar morning pump begins. Yesterday’s selling relieved the pressure of overextended condition in the T2122 indicator, but the Absolute Breadth Index continues to decline, providing a reason for caution. Keep in mind volume is likely to drop quickly today, and the early pop higher may have trouble finding the momentum to sustain.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Record-Setting day.

December 29, 2020 by Doug Campbell

Another record-setting day as the market celebrates the passage of the stimulus bill. With a very light day of earnings and economic news, you might want to keep an eye on the Senate today as they deliberate on the $2000 direct payments bill passed by the House yesterday. It could make for some interesting political drama, and their decision could have significant market ramifications.

Overnight Asian markets were mixed but mostly higher as the NIKKEI surged to price levels not seen since the early 1990s. European markets are green across the board this morning, and the U.S. futures point to more new record highs as the bulls continue to march higher. Remember, volume and momentum can quickly diminish as we approach the holiday shutdown plan your risk accordingly.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the last trading Tuesday of 2020, we have a light day of earnings with just one verified report coming from JRJC.

News & Technicals’

After a record-setting day, futures continue to push higher in reaction to the stimulus bill’s passage. Yesterday the U.S. House passed a bill to raise direct payments to $2000, and they easily gained the 2/3 vote required to override the President’s veto of the defense bill. The focus will now turn to the Senate as the legislative year draws to a close. Treasury yields continue to rise this morning and may well react depending on the Senate vote on stimulus checks. The Boeing 737 Max returns to the air here in the U.S., which may be good timing with investors seeing a bright near-term future for airlines anticipating a significant return to air travel post-pandemic environment.

Although the market remains in rally mode, it’s a bit difficult for me to be excited about the rally, with volume likely to shrink heading toward the New Year’s shutdown. The Absolute Breadth Index continued to decline yesterday, indicating fewer and fewer stocks are holding the market up. The T2122 indicator also supports that thought showing a modest decline yesterday as the market rallied. The tech giants AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, did most of the work yesterday, enjoying strong buy-side pressure. Plan your trading carefully as volume and momentum can quickly fade as we approach the holiday.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Stimulus Bill Signed

December 28, 2020 by Doug Campbell

With the signing of the stimulus bill, the bulls are bidding up the futures market this morning, suggesting a gap up open with the possibility of some new record highs as a result. However, there is a reason for some caution, with a significantly elevated T2122 indicator and the Absolute Breadth Index remaining in decline. Plan carefully and stay alert for the traditionally low volume that often accompanies the days between Christmas and New Year’s.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher, with Hong Kong declining as Alibaba shares plunge nearly 8%. European markets are green across the board this morning, celebrating a Brexit trade deal and, in reaction, the $900 Billion stimulus spending. Here in the U.S., futures point to a bullish open and possible index records as we kick off the last 4-trading days of 2020.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have only four verified earnings this Monday. Notable reports include FDS and HEI.

News & Technicals’

After hinting that he may not sign the stimulus bill, President Trump finally signed it into law while still supporting the idea of $2000 direct payments rather than the $600 the bill provides. That news is inspiring European markets and U.S. futures markets higher at the open. Treasury yields trade higher this morning as well relieved by the avoidance of a government shutdown heading into the end of the year. With air travel hitting new post-pandemic highs over the Christmas Holiday, Whitehouse advisor Dr. Fauci warns of a likely surge in infection rates coming in the weeks ahead.

With the overnight surge of bullishness after news of the stimulus bill came out, the indexes point to gap up open and possible new record highs. However, traders will have to stay on their toes as the trading days between Christmas and New Year’s traditionally suffer from a lack of volume, meaning momentum may quickly fade. With a light day on the economic calendar and very little in the way of earnings, the market could be quite sensitive to political news. Stay focused and plan your risk carefully, as price action could quickly become light and choppy.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Stimulus Bill Unacceptable?

December 23, 2020 by Doug Campbell

The bill is now on the president’s desk, but he calls the stimulus bill unacceptable. He calls on Congress to raise the direct payments to $2000 from the approved $600 and cut the laundry list of wasteful pork belly spending. An interesting turn of events is likely to keep the media hopping and the market unsettled with the uncertainty. The NASDAQ printed its 54^th new record high in 2020 yesterday, a remarkable feat considering the economy’s actual state. Keep in mind volume typically declines as we head into the holiday shutdown. Plan your risk accordingly.

Overnight Asian markets rallied in response to the Congressional passage of the stimulus bill. Across the pond, European are mostly higher on hopes that a Brexit trade deal is on the verge of completion. U.S. Futures recovered overnight loss and currently point to a bullish open ahead of a busy economic calendar with potentially market-moving effects. Right Way Options will be closed on Christmas Eve and Christmas day, so there will be no blog or Morning Prep Video. On behalf of my family, I want to wish you and yours a safe, Very Merry Christmas.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

It should not be a big surprise that there are very few earnings as we head toward the Christmas shut down. There is only one notable report, PAYX. We have no notable reports on Thursday and, of course, Friday.

News and Technicals’

After weeks of wrangling, both Congress bodies finally passed the stimulus bill, but now that’s it’s on the President’s desk, he says it’s unacceptable. Although he has not said he will veto the bill, he has asked Congress to increase the direct payments to $2000 per citizen and up to $4000 per couple. He also listed a disgraceful laundry list of wasteful pork belly spending in the bill he wants cut before signing the spending plan. A movie script on the last few week’s politicals in the U.S. would have been trashed as too unbelievable just a few years ago. According to reports, the U.K. and E.U. may be near a Brexit trade deal, good news, as they quickly approach the deadline. With the new virus, strain brings up worries of more business restrictions; the Dow lost ground yesterday, but the resilient NASDAQ inked its 54th new record of 2020. A remarkable and honestly unbelievable feat considering the state of the economy and rapidly pandemic having many hospitals near capacity.

We have a very bid day on the Economic Calendar today, and the bulls remain very feisty, recovering from overnight losses pointing to a bullish open. Index trends remain bullish, but with the Absolute Breadth Index continuing to decline and the holidays just around the corner, there is a reason for caution. Plan your risk carefully. Right Way Options will be closed on Christmas Eve and Christmas day, so there will be no blog or Morning Prep Video. On behalf of my family, I want to wish you and yours a safe, Very Merry Christmas.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Hear no Evil

December 22, 2020 by Doug Campbell

The bulls stampeded back into stocks after gaping substantially lower yesterday, choosing to hear no evil or see no evil in the new, more infectious strain of the virus impacting Europe. In a late-night session, the U.S. House passed the stimulus bill and spending bill, avoiding a government shutdown. Now traders will have to answer the question, is the stimulus already priced into the market? Currently, futures are flat, while yesterday’s bullish price action raises hope of a Santa Claus rally.

Overnight Asian markets dipped in reaction to the new economic restrictions weighing on investors. After a rough day of selling yesterday, European markets trade modestly higher this morning despite the new virus strain’s economic impacts. After receiving the government go-ahead for the 2^nd largest stimulus bill in government history, U. S. futures are taking a wait and see approach ahead economic reports.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have just 4-verified reports. Notable reports include KMX, CTAS, & NEOG.

News & Technicals’

After weeks of political gamesmanship, the U.S. House passed the 2^nd largest stimulus bill in government history. Americans could get the $600 direct payments as soon as next week and extend a lending program for business and up to 15 billion in aid to airlines. Google and Facebook are reportedly teaming up to battle antitrust lawsuits that have raised the possible collusion between the companies to price fix advertising prices. The SEC has been very busy of late and, according to reports, will soon sue the cryptocurrency firm Ripple for selling unregistered securities. The new strain highly contagious strain of the virus is already suspected to be here in the U.S., according to Whitehouse health officials. Scientists from the U.K. suggest the new strain is up to 70% more contagious. However, the market chose to ignore the new threat to the economy in favor of the new deficit spending bill in a highly volatile trading session yesterday. According to Johns Hopkins data, the U.S. is recording at least 215,700 new infections and at least 2600 deaths each day based on a seven-day average.

After some wild price action whipsaws, the bulls rushed back in yesterday as if they have zero concern about the overall economy’s state. However, after passing the $900 billion stimulus plan, the U.S. Futures seem to have stalled this morning. Printing bullish candle patterns on the index charts suggest there is still hope for a Santa Claus rally as we head toward the Christmas shutdown. We have many potentially market-moving data coming our way on the economic calendar today and tomorrow, so stay focused and expect price sensitivity to the news cycle. Will we continue to hear no evil and see no evil as economic impacts continue to grow?

Trade Wisely,

Doug