This morning we have to deal with GDP and Jobless Claims, and then the big question for the market to ponder is Taper or no taper. Jerome Powell will speak at 10 AM Eastern, attempting to build the narrative to appease the market on easy money policies and inflation. That will be a difficult needle to thread, considering the market’s addiction to freshly printed money. After the reporting, a -0.1 durable goods, the bulls continued to buy, pushing the SPY and QQQ to their 3rd record high this week. Lately, both good and bad news has inspired the bulls to buy. So perhaps none of this matters, but be prepared for price volatility as the market reacts.
Asian markets closed the day mostly lower as South Korea hikes interest rates. Across the pond, European markets see red across the board as global sentiment worries grow. That said, the U.S. seems to be taking a wait-and-see approach with a mixed bag hovering near the flatline. So let’s get ready to rumble!
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have our biggest day of the week on the Thursday earnings calendar, with 56 companies listed with several unconfirmed reports. Notable reports include DG, ANF, BBW, BURL, COTY, DELL, DLTR, FRO, GPS, HAIN, HPQ, SJM, MRVL, QLLI, PTON, SAFM, TITN, VMW, WDAY, & XPEV.
After a low volume, choppy record-setting day, all eyes are on the Durable goods figures just around the corner. Consensus suggests a decline to a -0.2 reading according to the Econoday analysts. With consumer confidence dropping to 2011 low and the unemployment bonuses expiring on September 6thth investors hope the numbers can support the current prices. What happens is anyone’s guess, and then we will quickly turn our attention to Jackson Hole and thoughts of tapering. Be prepared as price volatility is likely.
Asian markets closed the day mixed in a choppy session as Chines tech stocks retrace recent gains. This morning, European markets trade with modest gains and losses, waiting on data and gearing up for the Fed summit. However, the bulls continue to push higher, sporting modest gains ahead of the retail sales numbers across the board. One must wonder if the market will ignore the data as it has done lately with negative economic news.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the hump day earnings calendar, we have 33 companies listed but several small-cap unconfirmed reports. Notable reports include CRM, ADSK, ATHM, BOX, DKS, EXPR, GES, NTAP, PLAB, PSTG, SCVL, SNOW, SPLK, ULTA, & WSM.
News & Techincals’
The U.S. House voted to approve a $3.5 trillion budget resolution to forward sweeping social programs without a single Republican vote. Leaders have pledged to a vote on the deficit spending plan by September 27th. Vice President Harris called out China’s bullying tactics while visiting Vietnam and donating a million vaccine doses. According to reports, the U.S. is also opening a review of U.S – China trade policies. Treasury yields moved higher this morning, with the 10-year lifting to 1.29% and the 30-year rising to 1.91%.
Another day of record in the SPY and QQQ in a choppy below-average volume session as we wait on the Durable Goods figures that will release an hour before the market open. The market is also gearing up for the Jackson Hole symposium that kicks off on Thursday. Jerome Powell will speak at 10 AM Eastern time on Friday, where investors will be listening and hoping to gain some insight into the central bank’s plans on tapering the $120 billion a month program. The bulls remain in control on the technical front, with the DIA and IWM still lagging behind the big tech-driven rally in the SPY and QQQ. Now the question is, what will the retail numbers say? Will it continue to support this short-term extension, or will we see a re-emergence of the bears? The big miss on consumer confidence has traders and investors on the edge of their seats as they wait for the data. Another question to be answered is if the number does miss, will it matter? Lately, the market has had an incredible ability to ignore bad economic news. We will soon find out.
The choppy relief rally slowly gained strength on Friday, providing a considerable improvement on the technical front as the SPY and QQQ recovered price supports. Of course, we still have overhead resistance levels to deal with, but if the premarket surge holds through the pending economic report, the QQQ is easily within striking distance of new records. The small-cap IWM remains the weakest index, but with oil perking up this morning, look for some modest improvement. That said, the economic data may still put some stumbling blocks in the path forward, so prepare for the wild price volatility to continue.
Asian markets surged off last week’s lows, lead by the NIKKEI up 1.78%, as it recovered from last week’s bearishness. This morning, European markets trade in the green across the board, feeling some sweet relief after the recent selloff. Ahead of earnings and possible market-moving economic data, U.S. futures look to extend Friday’s rally, with the QQQ pushing for a record-breaking breakout.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have 25 companies with several unconfirmed expected on the Monday earnings calendar. Notable reports include JD, MSGE, & PANW.
News & Technicals’
As evacuations continue from the Kabul Airport, a firefight broke out between Afghan security and unknown attackers. Once Afghan security personal was killed and three others wounded. Treasury yields begin the week slightly higher this morning, with the 10-year trading up to 1.273% and the 30-year trading at 1.889%.
On Friday, we saw considerable improvement on the technical front, with the SPY and QQQ surging above resistance levels. With futures surging this morning, the DIA will join them as the QQQ stretches toward a possible new record. However, we do have some possible stumbling blocks in this week’s economic reports. Which includes PMI, Durable Goods, GDP, housing data, and even some Fed speak from the chairman. Keep a close eye on the price action as we test record resistance highs, and with earnings reports winding down, it may not be as easy to ignore concerning economic data as we have seen of late. In addition, the sharply lower consumer sentiment may prove to be problematic for market gains if housing and durable goods orders continue to slip or inflationary numbers continue to rise.
Looking at the daily index charts, one could quickly think the relief rally looks underway but look deeper, and you will see another challenging day of price action. The bears have gained some confidence, much more willing to fight for dominance than we have seen recently. With a light day of earnings and economic data to provide inspiration and markets around the world experiencing selling pressure, the bulls have a challenging task ahead to defend price support heading into the weekend. Plan your risk carefully!
With more Chinese regulatory scrutiny in tech and now real estate, Asian markets sold off strongly led by Hong Kong, with the HSI dipping into bear territory. European markets currently see red across the board, and the weekend nears. Finally, with a light day of earnings and economic data, U.S. futures point to a bearish open that may test the bull’s willingness to defend yesterday’s low in the Dow. Expect volatility as the bulls and bears fight for dominance.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have a light day on the earnings calendar to round out the trading week with only 7-verified reports. Notable reports include BKE, DE, and FL.
News & Technicals’
Another challenging day of price action with buying in big tech, health care, and defensive stocks proving some safe-haven spots for traders. However, the divide between winners and losers continues to grow as more and more stocks fall below their 200-day averages. The VIX pulled back from its intraday high but ended the day above a 20 handle, suggesting more price volatility in the days ahead. Although the DIA, SPY, and QQQ experienced a bit of a relief rally, the 4-week new high/new low ratio surprisingly remained in a short-term oversold condition. China passed new tech regulations and looked to expand its crackdown to real estate. As a result, Hong Kong markets fall into bear territory to close out the week.
Yesterday’s rally was nice, but it was not nearly enough to recover broken support levels. Moreover, with the premarket action threatening a bearish open, the risk of severe technical damage is growing. Should the bears find the energy to push prices below yesterday’s lows, we could experience a very rough day of a pile on selling into the weekend. With a very light day of earnings and economic data, the bulls will have to work hard to find enough inspiration to encourage buy the dip traders to take the weekend risk. That’s a big ask, with Asian markets closing decidedly bearish and European markets seeing red across the board in the worst week of trading since February. As the bulls and bears battle for dominance, expect the price action to remain challenging with the VIX elevated.
The thought that the Fed is considering tapering easy money policies brought out the bears yesterday afternoon. The selling is starting to create some technical damage in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ and likely shake the uber bulls’ confidence. With Jobless Claims and Philly Fed numbers before the bell, we could have a challenging price action open depending on the results. However, with the overall market, so helplessly addicted to money printing, I would not be too surprised if the taper tantrum withdrawal symptoms create more challenges on the path forward.
Asian markets traded in the red across the board last night, with Hong Kong leading the way as it plunged 2.13%. European markets also see nothing but red across the board due to the taper talk and falling oil prices. U.S. Futures continue to fall as earnings roll out with potential market-moving data before the bell that worsen or significantly improve the open depending on the results. So, buckle up; it could be a wild ride this morning.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
The Thursday earnings calendar has indicates 46 companies expected to report, with about half of them unconfirmed. Notable reports include AMAT, BZUN, BILI, BJ, EL, GFI, KSS, M, MSGS, NCMYGY, WOFF, QIWI, ROST, SDRLF, TPR,& VSCO.
News & Technicals’
We learned from the FOMC minutes that the committee is talking about tapering easy money policies this year. But, with the market so incredibly addicted to money printing, the bearish reaction pushed all the indexes lower with selling into the close. Treasury yields, surprisingly, traded lower this morning despite the taper talk. The 10-year fell four basis points to 1.233%, with the 30-year also dropping four basis points to 1.87%. Tesla is apparently struggling with vehicle delivery as customers are told they will have to wait for weeks or even months as delivery dates keep slipping. According to sales staff, they are not being told what is causing the delays and cannot answer customer’s questions. However, Toyota says it will cut global production by 40% due to the pandemic impacts of semiconductors and other parts shortages.
After the late afternoon selloff yesterday, some technical damage is beginning to show in the index charts. The DIA, SPY, and QQQ closed below support levels. With the premarket activity currently pushing lower, the damage could worsen this morning unless the bulls go to work and defend. Nevertheless, a little ray of sunshine with the 4-week new low/ new high ratio suggests we are near a short-term oversold condition and could bounce soon. However, that will likely depend on the Jobless claims results, which will come out before today’s open. Economists estimate 365,000 claims filed, which would be a modest improvement over last week’s reading. Please keep your fingers crossed because should it miss, the bears could keep going selling pressure.
After a disappointing retail sales number, the bears woke from their summer hibernation to reverse the previous rally that set new records. Though the whippy price action likely shook trader confidence at the end of the day, the bullish trends in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ remain. However, with housing number before the open and the FOMC minutes later this afternoon, prepare for another day of volatile price action that likely favors quick intraday traders.
Asian markets mostly rallied overnight after the reserve bank of New Zealand keeps rates unchanged. However, European markets trade mixed but mostly lower as they monitor inflation data. The U.S. futures point to mixed open ahead of economic and earnings data, but that could quickly change depending on the housing numbers. So hang on tight; the ride is about to take another lap.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have 35 companies listed to report on the Wednesday earnings calendar, with many of them as unconfirmed. Notable reports include CSCO, ADI, BBWI, EAT, PLCE, NVDA, LITE, LOW, KEYS, RRGB, SNPS, TGT, TJX, VIPX, & ZTO.
News & Technicals’
Lowe’s beat on the top and bottom line this morning, and the stock is priced higher this morning, trying to recover some of yesterday’s losses. Target also topped earnings targets and raised forecasts, but the retailer is trading lower in the premarket. After the bell, CSCO, NVDA, and HOOD will report their results. Treasury yields rose this morning as we wait on the FOCM minutes later this afternoon. The 10-year gain nearly two basis points to 1.275%, and the 30-year rose to 1.933%. Europe is scrambling to formulate an Afghanistan refugee plan, trying to avoid repeating the 2015 crisis. An emergency meeting of the most affected countries did not invite the United States after the Taliban seized control of the country.
The bears woke from their summer hibernation yesterday after the very disappointing retail sales number. The pullback included some violent intraday whipsaws that ended the day printing bullish hammer patterns with the afternoon rally. Please remember that hammer patterns required a bullish follow-through to be valid, so be careful rushing in to buy the dip. Before the bell, we have another potential market-moving report with the Housing Starts and Permits, expecting a minor pullback in the consensus. Finally, after some moring price volatility, we could see price action become light and choppy as we wait for the release of the last FOMC minutes. I think it’s unlikely that we will learn anything more about the possibility of a Fed taper, but if we do, there could be another shot of wild price swings in reaction. That said, after yesterday’s selloff, the DIA, SPY, and QQQ bullish trend suffered little to no damage though I can’t say the same for trader confidence.
The early selloff triggered a massive intraday whipsaw that set new records in the DIA and SPY as buy the dip buyers rushed back in with a fear of missing out. Unfortunately, this morning, many may feel pain with an overnight gap down, threatening to take all or yesterday’s gains back in one fell swoop. Keep your fingers crossed that the Retail Sale numbers come in better than expected, or this could prove to be a rough day.
The seeing began overnight as Asian markets sold off across the board on fears of more Chinese internet regulations. European markets trade primarily lower this morning, keeping an eye on the economic data and the Afghanistan crisis. In addition, as earnings roll out U.S. futures, currently suggest an overnight reversal gap down ahead of a vital retail sales number that could improve or worsen the market open. So, tighten your seatbelt and get ready for a bumpy ride!
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
The number of earnings events drop off today with just 37 companies listed, and nearly half are unconfirmed. Notable reports include HD, WMT, A, AMCR, CRMT, CREE, DNUT, LZB, PANDY, QUIK, & SE.
News & Technicals’
Home Depot shares decline this morning after a sold beat on estimates after the company reported that the do-it-yourself trends have weakened. The U.S. sets new records as pandemic infections rise, but less than 11% of hospital beds are used nationwide. Oregon has 56.8% of its residents fully vaccinated but has seen an increase of 11.4% in infections. Hawaii is 54.3% vaccinated with infections up 12.3%, Florida 50.3% vs. 28.2 and Missippi 35.8% vs. 18.7% increase. Flights have resumed from the Kabul Airport as people scramble to leave Afghanistan, with the U.K. foreign secretary see’s the situation stabilizing. Treasury yields moved slightly lower this morning, with the 10-year trading at 1.23% and the 30-year falling to 1.898%.
So what is a trader to do with a market producing a massive intraday whipsaw that set new record highs with traders rushing in near the close? Well, if you’re anything like me, you either stand aside, seeing no edge as a swing trader or chose to do a little day trading to take advantage of the wild price volatility. Traders that bought up stocks yesterday could experience a little pain this morning with an overnight whipsaw down. The selling began overnight as with China internet shares falling as regulatory fears rise. Traders now face a retail sales number before the open that consensus suggests may decline, and that sentiment seems to have been confirmed in the Home Depot guiding sales lower in their earnings report. I said yesterday to prepare for price volatility, but holy cow, this is ridiculous! Unless you’re an experienced day-trader, you may find it nearly impossible to matain a trading edge. The song’s lyrics, The Gambler says it best, Know when to hold em’, know when to fold em,’ know when to walk away, and know when to run! So buckle up it could be another wild ride today.
The images of fleeing diplomats and the hints of Fed tapering seem to have a few bears milling about this morning pondering the uncertainty. Could their summer hibernation come to an end as we wind down the bulk of earnings season inspiration? Perhaps but with new records in the DIA and SPY, trends remain very bullish. Only the IWM has a hint of bearishness as it continues to languish below its 50-day average. So prepare for the possibility of price turbulence as the markets work through the details of the uncertainty.
Asian markets closed mostly lower overnight, lead by the Nikkei falling 1.62% after China’s economic data disappoints. Geopolitical concerns have European markets seeing red across the board this morning as investors monitor the fast-changing events. Ahead of earnings and a light day of market-moving economic news, U.S. futures suggest a modestly bearish open within bullish trends amid tapering uncertainty.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
To kick off the new trading week, we have around 190 companies listed, but a large number of them are small-cap unconfirmed events. Notable reports include PLNT, DDD, APD, AMC, GOLD, BNTX, CBT, ELY, CF, CHGG, CXW, APPS, DISH, ELAN, ENR, GLNG, KNDI, QLYS, SGMS, SDC, TTD, TSN, & WKHS.
News & Technicals’
President Biden experiences his Saigon moment as the Taliban seize Kabul as diplomats flee. After taking over the presidential palace, the Taliban has taken over the entire country in about 30 days. Reports suggest that there is growing support to announce tapering its debit asset purchase program in September. It will be interesting to see how a market addicted to money flowing from the Fed will react when and if it does come to an end. This morning Treasury yields decline with the 10-year falling to 1.263% and the 30-year dipping to 1.921%, with the Fed minutes expected Wednesday afternoon. With turmoil in Haiti, Afganistan, and Malaysia, markets worldwide are experiencing a little bearish pressure due to the uncertainty.
Coming off a week of fresh record highs in the DIA and SPY, the images of fleeing diplomats and the talk of Fed tapering have the bears stirring about this morning. Earnings season provided a good deal of bullish energy, but as the season winds down, the bulls will have to begin looking elsewhere for inspiration. Trends is in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ are very bullish, but they also appear somewhat overextended. The big question is, do the bears have any teeth, and will the geopolitical along with the taper talk wake them from the summer hibernation. Only time will tell but be ready for some price turbulence as the market grapples with the uncertainty.
After hearing that the producer prices surged well past inflation expectations, the bulls ignored the news and pushed the SP-500 to its 47th record high for the year, with Dow leading the charge. I suspect there will be a time when we will suddenly care about inflation, but for now, stick with the bullish trends and enjoy the party as long as it lasts. With volume below average and a very week, Absolute Breadth Index may suggest market complacency is growing, so guard against overtrading and avoid chasing already extend stocks.
Asian markets struggled overnight, closing the session mostly lower with only ASX squeaking out a positive close. However, the Europiean markets see nothing but green this morning fueled on solid earnings data. With earnings numbers dwindling and U.S. futures trade mixed ahead import/export numbers and consumer sentiment.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have a lighter day on the Friday earnings calendar with just 71 companies listed, but a significant number are unconfirmed. Notable reports include ARHVF, DSEY, FUJIY, SDPI, & VSTA.
New & Technicals’
The pandemic numbers back on the rise; the FDA recommends booster shots for people with compromised immune systems hoping to shield the most vulnerable. According to Fauci, everyone will likely need booster shots in the near future. In addition, pandemic restrictions are again on the rise, with indoor masking requirements and vaccine passports entering public buildings. A new black market business has emerged producing fake vaccination cards. As the U.S. withdraws troops, Al-Qaeda quickly regains power as they march across the country, taking city after city. The expectation is that Kabul will soon be recaptured, and the U.S. is now deploying 3000 American troops to help with the evacuation of Americans at the U.S. Embassy.
After hearing that Producer Prices came in much hotter than expected, the bulls quickly decided they don’t care, setting the 47th new record high in the SP-500 this year. The Dow also surged to new records while the QQQ recovered from early selling as the tech giants lifted the index. The VIX continues to march lower, nearing the June lows. It is, however, a bit concerning that volume remains below average as the market surges higher and the Absolute Breadth Index remains shocking low. That said, the bullish trends in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ are unmistakable, and the technicals show no signs the direction is about to change. Stay with the trends as long as this bullish party continues, but plan to protect your capital should the sentiment suddenly change.
Traders shrugged off inflation numbers as they once again pushed the Dow and SP-500 to new records. When good news is a reason to buy, and bad news is a reason to keep buying, it makes me concerned about the damaging effects of complacency in the longer term. There is no doubt the DIA, SPY, and QQQ trends are bullish. So stay with them as long as they last, but never forget this wild bullishness will not last forever. Avoid chasing already extended stocks and guard against overtrading as this bull party continues.
Overnight Asian markets traded lower as currencies due to the weaker dollar. European markets trade mixed with modest gains or losses as pandemic concerns weighs on investors. Ahead of a dwindling number of earnings reports and the latest reading on Jobless Claims and PPI U.S. currently point to modest gains but new records at the open.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have a busy day with more than 260 companies listed, but a significant number of them have not confirmed. Notable reports include DIS, ABNB, BIDU, BAM, CSIQ, TAST, BAP, CYBR, DASH, FRGI, GDRX, IQ< LZ, LAZR, MDP, MIDD, PLTR, PTE, & WPM.
News & Technicals’
The Competition and Markets Authority said it the purchase of Giphy by Facebook will harm competition. They warned the deal would remove a potential challenger in the display advertising market. In addition, a U.S. bipartisan bill aims to shake up how Apple and Google run their mobile app stores in similar news. App developers have claimed unfair practices from the tech giants, and the bill hopes to allow more competition into the app markets. According to Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, the head of the Oxford Vaccine Group said with the highly infectious delta variant achieving herd immunity is not possible.
Traders and investors shrugged off inflation numbers yesterday, pushing the Dow and SP-500 up, setting more new records. When bad news becomes a reason to buy up the market, and good news inflates it, even more, we must become concerned about market complacency. That said, the trends are very bullish in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ, and the premarket pump suggests more records at the open. We have one potential stumbling block with the weekly jobless claims, but we have seen missing on that number can also be ignored. So stay with the trend and party like its 1999 as long as it lasts but, please guard yourself against complacency and the desire to overtrade these very lofty valuations.
