No written blog today due to a power outage at my home. I had it almost completed when the power went out for a few minutes and everything was lost. Grrr. 😜
On the earnings calendar we have several notable reports. They include AAP, CTRP, LOW, NTAP, SCVL, SMRT, TGT, VFC & VIPS.
A 90-day grace period added to the technology ban with Huawei has the lifted the spirits of the futures market this morning and relieved some of the strong selling pressure in the NASDAQ. Futures are pointing to more than a 100 point gap up open in the Dow and the NASDAQ is showing at least a partial recovery of yesterday’s rout. However there is still significant technical damage in the charts and with US/China negotiations stalled, repairing the damage could take some time.
Price action continues to be very challenging with what seems almost daily overnight reversals and big gaps. Swing traders are likely finding it very difficult to maintain an edge of any kind as the volatility favors the quick in out of day trading avoiding the overnight risk. Remember don’t fight the market and don’t trade just to have something to do. Remain disciplined to your trading plan and profit your capital until your edge returns.
On the Earnings Calendar we have more than 70 companies reporting with a big emphasis in retail for the rest of the week. Among the notables today, KSS, JWN, CRMT, EV, HD, JCP, TJX, TOL and URBN,
After the close yesterday a 90 day grace period was added to the Huawei blacklisting to relieve some pressure on the US tech companies. This exemption allows Googe to send software updates to Huawei phones which use its Android operating system through August 19th. As a result NASDAQ futures are recovering substantially this morning and lifting the spirits of the other major indexes as well.
Unfortunitually the divide between the US and China trade negotiations seems to have grown and according to reports the trade war could get worse before it gets better. Despite that US futures are pointing to a positive open this morning but keep in mind there is still significant technical damage in the charts that will likely take some time to repair. The overnight reversals and volatility continue to favor the very nimble day traders and making it challenging for swing traders to matain an edge of any kind.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Stalled US/China trade negotiations continue to ripple around the world as the nervous tensions grow amidst the uncertainty of it all. After the blacklisting of Huawei’s devices, Google has suspended business activity with the Chinese device maker essentially blocking it from global growth and inflaming already difficult negotiations between the countries.
Tensions are also on the rise with Iran with the president’s warning of the end of Iran if they raise arms against the US. As John Wayne would say, they’s fightin’ words! Hopefully cooler heads will prevail but once again the uncertainty is not something the market likes so keep an eye on the VIX if fear begins to grow. A failure at the 50-day average in the index chart creates significant technical and psychological damage that can take weeks if not months to repair. Choose your risk carefully.
On the Earnings calendar we have 80 companies expected to fess up to results. Notable earnings include IGT, TTM & TI.
Futures that initially pushed higher by nearly 120 points in early trading reversed overnight as trade war tensions continue and saber rattling with Iran grew over the weekend. Potentially damaging technical price patterns let behind on Friday’ index charts could bring out the bear this morning unless there is something that can inspire the bulls in the lead up to today’s open.
Unfortunately there is nothing on the economic calendar to inspire and although there are some notable earnings reports today they are unlikely to market moving events. That means the market will likely be very sensitive to news reports and tweets today opening the door to volatile price action. Remember is unwise to chaise a gap so let’s wait and see if sellers come in to support the gap before making any new trade decisions.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Having reaped the benefits of a nice relief rally traders will have to consider the weekend risk of the trade war news and the rising tensions with Iran. Futures are currently pointing to a bearish open with the Dow currently expected to open about 100 points lower.
With a light day on both the earnings and economic calendars traders will have plenty of ponder the technical damage in index charts as this volatile week comes to the close. Yesterday afternoon I began to lighten up by taking profits to reduce risk and hedging positions that I plan to hold. Consider carefully how best to protect your capital in light of the tensions, possible volatility that can emerge over the weekend.
As usual we get a little break on the Earnings Calendar Friday with only 13 companies today. Notable earnings include DE & RDY.
After a big rally to test key resistance levels futures are pointing to some profit-taking at the open this morning. With a light day on the earnings calendar and the economic calendar the market will have to ponder the technical damage in the charts as we move toward the weekend. Tensions with Iran have grown to such an extent that the Whitehouse has deemed it time to inform Congress.
Hopefully cooler heads prevail but traders should consider the weekend risk if a military confrontation were to occur let alone the slings and arrows tossed back and forth in the trade war. Currently futures point to more than a 100-point gap down. If that holds the open watch closely to see if sellers support the gap before considering short positions. However, if the sellers do being to pile on reducing risk into the weekend fear could quickly grow and selling could quickly accelerate.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Do we dare hope for a bullish follow-through this morning? Although a presidential executive order seems to have raised trade war tensions markets are putting on a brave face this morning. Following a rather volatile session Asian market closed mixed but modestly higher overnight. European are currently green across the board and US Futures point to a bullish open in the pre-market.
The world largest retailer, WMT, has already reported better than expected to give the futures a nice bump but we have three potential market-moving economic reports at 8:30 AM Eastern for the market to digest before the open. Keep a close eye on price action and remember we have important resistance levels just above that the bears could defend. As for me I do dare to hope for follow-through bullishness but I will patiently wait until I see proof the bulls have the energy to deal with resistance before considering new risk.
We have a lighter day on the Earnings Calendar but we have some heavy hitters that could move the market. Notable reports include, WMT, NVDA, AINV, AMAT, BIDU, BOOT, FRO, IQ, LTM, MANU, NGG & WIX.
We had a nice steady rally yesterday following a gap down open as the market reacted to trade tensions and declining retail sales figures. After the bell yesterday the president signed an executive order that allows the federal government to block transactions that involve information or communications technology citing National Security concerns. China sees this as a direct assault on the mobile device seller Huawei adding additional pressure to trade negotiations.
Despite that, futures are currently pointing bullish open. Dare we hope for a day of follow-through? Keep in mind we have some big earnings reports today that could move the market as well as three potential market-moving economic reports at 8:30 AM Eastern. If the pre-market bullishness holds into the open remember to watch closely key resistance levels where the bears could reassert themselves. A gap into resistance raises the risk of a pop and drop so keep a close eye on the price action and avoid chasing the open.
Trade wisely,
Doug
Yesterday broad-based rally left me hopeful that we might see at least a little follow-through bullishness this morning. Futures during the night showed some promise of that as Asian markets rallied closing up across the board. Unfortunately that bullishness has faded this morning ahead of a big day of earnings reports and economic reports.
Although there was some sweet relief yesterday from the selling pressure so much technical damage was created on Monday prices now face some pretty tough resistance levels if the rally is to continue. Perhaps this mornings data deluge and provide the energy need to inspire the bulls higher. As you plan your risk forward however it would be wise to remember that it’s not uncommon for prices to retest market lows at some point. Remember the current trend is still down and how the market deals with resistance levels will be very important as we move forward.
A busy day on the Earnings Calendar with nearly 190 companies reporting. Notable reports BABA, CSCO, ERJ, FLO, JACK, M, NTES & TCEHY.
Yesterday’s relief rally appears to have been very broad-based with many sectors involved in the recovery. Unfortunitually Monday’s selling created so much technical damage in charts they now face some pretty strong price resistance levels. We also have a very big day of earnings and an economic calendar full of potential market move reports for the market to chew on this morning.
Futures reopened last night bearish but then turned bullish as Asian markets found the energy to recover but that warn and fuzzy feeling has now slipped away. As I write this note futures are pointing to a gap down of more than 50 points but that could quickly change as earnings and economic data rolls out. Keep a close eye on overhead resistance levels and remember that market bottoms often require a retest of previous supports so plan your risk carefully.
Trade wisely,
Doug
US futures are pointing to a triple point gap up but is this a relief rally or the setup for a pop and drop pattern? Only time will tell but be careful not to get caught in fear of missing out rushing into danger. There was wise spread technical damage created in most sectors of the market yesterday so keep an eye on those price resistance levels if the bulls do choose to test them.
Though the market may have created a short-term oversold condition with yesterdays aggressive sell-off the trade war is likely to have lasting impacts so don’t expect the bears to give up easily. The market is likely to remain volatile, sensitive to tweets and news reports so plan your risk carefully. The current market condition is likely to be challenging to even the most experienced traders so there is no need to rush into harm’s way, remain disciplined to your rules and wait for your edge to return even if this is a relief rally.
We have nearly 170 companies on the Earnings Calendar expected to report results. Among the notable reports, BABA, PLCE, CSCO, ERJ, FLO, JACK, M, NTES & TCEHY
After taking considerable time to look over 1000’s of charts last night, yesterday’s rout created significant technical damage across most sectors. Consumer defensive stocks, utilities, precious metals fared the best as traders and investors looked to find some safe havens. Futures are pointing to a triple-digit gap up but it would not be wise to rush in the morning gap. The bears are unlikely to give up easily and we will have to watch the possibility of a pop and drop pattern.
Price action is likely to remain fast, volatile and very challenging even to the most experienced traders. For the time being this is a very emotional and news-driven market subject to intra-day and overnight reversals so plan your risk carefully. Due to the heightened volatility, if I do trade, I will take smaller than normal positions and expect to take profits without hesitation to reduce the risk of reversal. Stay disciplined to your rules and patiently wait for technical correct patterns that provide you with a higher probability edge.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
The US tariffs increased by 25% and we are still waiting the Chinese promised response as trade negotiations continue in Washington D. C. Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher overnight and European markets are also in rally mode this morning and green across the board. US futures fluctuated substantially overnight but as we move toward the open hope of a deal continues to well up.
This week has created significant technical damage in the charts and its very difficult to know what to do as we wait for negotiations to conclude and the Chinese response to the tariff increase. While the trade talks are front and center we also have to consider the rising tensions with North Korea and Iran as we consider the weekend risk.
We have a little rest on the Earnings Calendar with just short of 120 companies reporting today. Notable reports include DS, ENB, JD, MAR & VIAB.
As US/China negotiations continue in Washington D.C. the president did as he said and raised tariffs by 25%. At this time China has yet to respond but promises that it will do so with equal tariffs on US products. During the night futures were all over the map swing from up more than 100 points to down nearly 100 points as we neared the midnight deadline.
This morning the futures are suggesting a mixed and modest open but that could easily change as earnings reports roll in and we get the latest reading on the CPI at 8:30 AM Eastern. With the current technical damage and waiting for China’s response it’s very difficult to access the risk of holding or adding new position ahead of the weekend. The trade war may be the least of our worries as issues in North Korea and Iran continue to escalate. Plan your risk carefully and have a wonderful weekend everyone!.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Trade war uncertainty, growing tensions with Iran and more than 400 companies reporting earnings; When it rains it pours! Markets hate uncertainty and we sure have a pot full of it this week giving the indexes as well as traders and investors a case of indigestion trying to digest it all. Asian market closed in the red across the board last night in reaction to the tariff fears and surprises in Chinese trade data. European indexes are currently modestly lower across the board as well this morning.
The sharp selloff yesterday broke US index supports creating some significant technical damage in the charts. Currently the US futures are suggesting a lower open of more than 100 Dow points but that has been fluctuating substantially and could be very different by market open as earnings reports roll in at a furious pace this morning. Expect very high volatility with fast price action to challenge all traders. Buckle up the bumpy ride continues down a very uncertain path.
We have a huge day on the earnings calendar with more than 400 company’s reporting. Some of the notable today include, DIS, ETSY, ACM, ALB, APLE, GOLD, CVNA, FUN, CTL, CHK, CXW, COTY, BREW, FOSL, FOXA, GDOT, HMC, TWNK, IAC, MCK, NYT, ODP, PAAS, PRGO, ROKU, SBRA, SRPT, STMP, SWCH, TM, VER, VIS & WEN.
Futures that were positive most of the night turned sharply lower at about 4 AM Eastern time this morning. According to CNBC a diplomatic cable for Beijing arrived in the oval office late last Friday evening with edits that removed most the China concessions and destroyed months of negotiations. The president’s Sunday decision raise tariffs on Friday was the result of this action. Here is the link to the full story https://cnb.cx/304DBGc.
Iran has issued new threats suggesting they no longer want to live by the nuclear agreement they signed just a couple years ago raising tensions with the US. As the old saying goes, When it rains it pours! Toss in more than 400 earnings reports today and the market has more than enough fodder to continue with volatile price action. Yesterday’s steep selloff may have put us in a short-term oversold condition but having broken through important supports more lows are certainly possible. However, we should also be on the lookout for the possibility of a short covering relief rally so be careful not to chase the morning gap.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
After a nasty gap down followed by an amazing recovery rally, futures are currently pointing to a gap down open of more than 100 points. Volatility is likely to remain high as the drama plays out between the US and China. Asian markets closed mixed overnight and European indexes are red across the board with new 25% tariffs scheduled to go into effect at 12:01 Friday. Tensions are high and according to reports China has walked back most of the major concessions previously made.
Add to that a week chalked full of earnings and the stage is set for considerable volatility the possibility of big overnight gaps making trading in the current environment more like gambling amidst all the turmoil. Day traders will likely have the upper hand and swing traders may find it difficult to impossible to hold on to an edge over the next several days. So far this has been a great year of profits be careful not to give those gains back trying to trade such uncertainty. It may be wise to back off, protecting your capital, and remember you don’t have to trade every day to be a successful trader.
On the Earnings Calendar we have a very big day with more than 380 companies reporting. Among the notable reports, DDD, ALGN, ABEV, BUD, CHUY, CNX, CROX, DBA, DF, DFRG, EA, EMR, ENR, RACE, IT, HUBS, JAZZ, KGC, LC, LPX, MLCO, MYL, OHI, PZZA, PBR, PBPB, QRVO, SEAS, SRE, RGR, TRIP, WU, & WING.
After a remarkable rebound rally yesterday where traders shrugged off trade war concerns and the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran face another gap down this morning as markets around the world respond lower. Although the Vice Premier is joining the trade negotiation team on Wednesday, China has walked back most of the major concessions made in the 150-page trade deal according to reports. The president as also followed through on his threat setting the 25% tariff increase for 12:01 Friday. I think it’s fair to say the tensions are high and currently relations have taken a big step back.
As I write this US futures are pointing to a gap down of more than 100 in the Dow but that could easily change considerably with so many companies reporting results this morning. The fact volatility is likely to remain quite high over the next several days setting the stage for big gaps and possible overnight reversals. In this kind of condition trading becomes much more like gambling and having any kind of edge for the swing trader is near to impossible. If you do decide to trade it would be wise to keep the positions smaller than normal in light of the volatility and be careful not over trade.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
