The FOMC stands aside, the US and China are said to be
outlining a trade deal, index trends are up, and
the bulls point to the 9th straight day of gains. A truly extraordinary bull run that is also in
the 9th straight week up without looking back. Oddly enough bonds continue to trend higher
and even gold and silver have printed significant gains at the same time.
In a run such as this, profits have been easy to come by but its also very easy to become complacent. Such a strong bull run can lull traders to sleep and forgetting about the hungry bears lying in wait for their opportunity to attack. The trends are clearly bullish so stay with the trend but make sure you’re not chasing stocks late in their rally and over-trading. Respect resistance levels and exercise caution as price challenges them and remember to take some profits to the bank.
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar we have a big day with more than
225 companies reporting results. Among the
notable report are: BIDU, BCS, BYD, CZR, ED, CUBE, DLPH, DPZ, DBX, FSLR, FLR,
HL, HPE, HRL, KHC, MORN, NEM, RMAX, STMP, STOR, VER, WEN, WIN & ZG.
Action Plan
Eight straight days of rally and in the 9th
straight week of an extraordinary index rally and the bulls appear energized
to continue that winning streak this morning.
New overnight that US and China may now be outlining the details of a trade
deal have the futures once again pointing to a modest gap up at the open. Asian markets closed mixed but modestly
higher overall and European are currently mixed this morning as well.
Today we have very busy earnings
and economic calendars to keep us on our toes as we progress toward the
open. Yesterday the FOMC minutes
yesterday reinforced that the committee expects to take a wait and see approach
giving them more time to evaluate the economic impacts of past rate increases. As expected there was some price volatility
after the minutes released but ultimately the bulls remained solidly in control
as we push upward to test significant market resistance levels. At this time there is nothing in price action
in the index charts to suggest bearishness but we must respect the resistance
above and avoid chasing so late in the rally.
The overall market trend is up and the bulls continue to maintain a remarkable amount of energy and tenacity to drive forward. However, with the index now in the ninth week up and drawing near major resistance levels it may be time to raise caution levels. Although the market seems convinced that there will be a positive outcome of the trade negotiations it’s possible we have already priced in that possibility. Which means any negative news coming out the negotiations or delay in the completion would receive a harsh reaction by the market.
On the Calendar
Recently we have seen bonds
going up with the market and yesterday gold and
silver joined in with a big burst of buying.
That’s an odd occurrence and makes me wonder what will decouple
first. With the Dow up over 4200 points
in nine weeks on its own should give everyone a little pause on it own. Remember to take some profits as stock and
indexes near resistance levels and be careful chasing new entries this late in
the rally.
On the Earnings Calendar we have nearly 190 companies reporting
earnings today. Some of the notable earnings
today are: WBA, FDX, A, ALB, CAR, SAM, CAKE, CDE, CYH, CVS, GRMN, GDDY, HFC,
IAG, JACK, NE, OC, PAAS, O, SO & RGR.
Action Plan
As the indexes move closer and closer to major resistance
levels I feel the need to become more and more cautious about adding new long
long positions. Though I’m cautious let me be very clear that
the trend
is still up and the bulls are still currently very much in control. I am also beginning to become concerned that
the market has already priced in a trade
deal with China. Which means if there is
any negative news or a delay in its completion the market could react harshly.
Today we have the release of the FOMC Minutes of the last
meeting. Don’t be surprised to see light and choppy price action leading up to its
release and some price volatility directly after. There is a news report out this morning suggesting
the market could be a bit more sensitive to the minutes given length and elevation fo the current rally. Futures are pointing to a modestly lower open this morning but with all
the earnings reports this morning that could easily change. As always stay focused on price and protect trading
gains and your capital as we move closer
and closer to resistance levels.
The US Futures are taking a little rest this morning as US/China
trade negotiations resume amid new
tensions here in America. Asian markets were
flat and mixed overnight while European markets slide south with banks leading the way. As a result US markets futures are currently pointing lower but there is still a
lot of morning earnings yet to come to influence today’s open.
Without question the index trends are still up and the bulls
at least to this point appear to have almost
limitless energy to drive higher. There
are clues that this run is overextended and profit taking could soon begin but
it would be unwise to fight a relentless bull run. Trying to predict a top is just as wrong as
trying to predict a market bottom. Eventually the bulls will rest and the price will pullback but wait for the clues and
follow them rather than predict. Having
said that I would be cautious about adding too many long positions this late in the rally.
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar we have 159 companies reporting results
today. Among the most notable today,
WMT, AAP, NBL, LC, AWK, CTB, CXW, DVN, ECL, FE, GPC, HLF, HST, HSBC, KAR, LZB
& TSRH.
Action Plan
After a nice 3-day weekend the current futures look as if
they want to extend the vacation by taking a little rest this morning with a
modest pullback at the open. Don’t be too surprised
if the overall market is a little sluggish this morning as well with many
traders likely extending their vacation
as well. US/China trade negotiations resume today here in the US amid
new tensions. Expect some fast price
action if there are any news leaks from the negotiation
table.
Earnings continue to roll in by in large positive and although
we are seeing a little softness this morning the bulls are clearly in charge
and the trends are still up. According
to T2122 we are very overextended but
with indexes so close major resistance levels I would not be at all surprised
to see the markets continue to extend to test them. I see these resistance levels at the DIA 260 area,
SPY 281, QQQ 171 and IWM around 158.
After more than a month and a half bull run the bulls
continue to show resiliency fighting hard yesterday after a very disappointing retail sales report. Overnight future traded into the red as the Asian markets reacted to the possibility of a
slowing US Economy but this morning the futures have recovered pointing to
modest bullish open.
Take a look at the weekly index charts with our a single down candle since 12/28/18 with the Dow nearly 3700 points off the low and the SP-500 nearly 400 points higher. Truly an amazing rally that has provided traders with fantastic gains. Considering that as we head into the weekend be careful not chase entries this late into the rally and remember to take some profits.
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar we get a little break today with
only about 50 companies fessing up to earnings results. Notable reports DE, MCD, NWL, PEP, RBS, YNDX.
Action Plan
After a disappointing Retail
Sales report and discovering that the
President is planning to declare a national emergency the market dipped
slightly to end the day. However, the
bulls fought back hard all day long choosing to ignore the data with amazing resiliency. Ironically
Asian markets traded lower across the board in response to a slowing US Economy
and overnight US Futures traded into the red.
Once again the bulls refuse to lose and this morning the as I write the morning note, futures markets are pointing to modest
gains at the open.
There is no doubt that the index trends are still up and although
they appear stretched and losing price momentum more upside is certainly possible driven by earnings results. As we head toward the weekend remember to take
some profits and evaluate the level of risk you will hold through the weekend. We have had an
incredible month and a half bull run providing great profits, don’t give it back
by chasing entries so late in the rally.
Have a great weekend everyone!
I find the hyper-confidence currently displayed by the US markets a bit puzzling this morning especially with president reportedly considering a 60-day extension of the tariff deadline. Nonetheless the bulls are in full on beast mode this morning ahead a huge day of earnings reports and government shutdown delayed retail sales numbers.
Asian markets were subdued overnight as trade negations are
scheduled to continue into Friday. However, European markets are higher amid earnings
result and the US Futures currently indicate another gap up open. There is not a clue in the price action suggest
bearishness but this late in the rally I must admit concern about adding new long
risk with the indexes so extended. Enjoy
the ride and hold on tight and let’s hope the negotiations progress as positively
as the market is pricing everything.
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar we have more than 220 companies
reporting earnings today. Watch for
notable reports from NVDA, CM, CGC, AMAT, ARCH, ANET, AZN, AVP, BLMN, CBS, CC,
CME, KO, CS, DUK, GEO, IRM, SIX, WM &
ZTS.
Action Plan
We have another interesting day ahead of us and I have to be
honest the hyper-confidence of the US
Market has me nervous and a bit
puzzled. First, reports are now questioning
whether or not the President will sign
the compromise bill which would avoid the Friday night government shutdown. I find that difficult to believe but if true I’m
confident the market will react negatively if that were to occur. Secondly, the market seems to believe a Chain
trade deal is imminent but the president reportedly is considering a 60 extension of the
deadline.
Would that not suggest negotiations
are not going that well and how is dragging this threat out another 60 days reason
to gap the market higher this morning? Things that make me say Hmmm? Asian markets were very subdued overnight but
European markets and US Future are still
determined to run higher. Remember we
have a big day of earnings and Retail Sales numbers that may move the market
around before the open.
Yesterday the market celebrated Congress passing a deal to
avoid another government shutdown but we sill have another hurdle to clear, the presidents signature. He has remarked that he doesn’t like the deal
but has also said he doesn’t think there will be another shutdown. Markets
are higher around the world on hopes that US/China trade talks are progressing positively. Although there has been no news of progress the president seems to have softened his tariff deadline. Talk about keeping the market on the edge of its
seat!
Futures are bullish this
morning ahead of a big day of earnings and a potential market-moving CPI report
out before the open. The bulls are large
and in charge and trend continues to rise but I continue to see signs of diminishing
momentum and some overbought conditions.
Stay bullish but stay focused on price action clues of weary bulls and
profit-taking. This late in the rally be
careful not to overextend and remember to take some profits along the way!
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar we have a very big day with 170
companies reporting. Among the notable
reports keep your eyes on, AIG, FUN, CTL, DBA, EQIX, FOSL, DLPI, HCP, HLT, H,
KGC, LPX, MRO, NTAP, STAG, SPWR, WCN, WMB, WH & YELP.
Action Plan
After a big day up as the market responded to Congressional
deal to avoid a shutdown. Now it’s up to the President to sign it and
although he says he doesn’t like it he also said he doesn’t think there will be another shutdown. Let’s hope he does sign it because if not the
market will be very disappointed and
react negatively very quickly.
Today we have a big day of earnings and a CPI report for the
market to chew on before the open. The Asian market
and European markets are bullish on hopefulness of US/China trade negotiation progress. To my knowledge there has not been any news
on the subject other than President has mentioned he may soften his tariff
deadline position. As a result, Us Futures
currently point to a bullish gap up open.
I plan to remain bullish on the market as long as the trend holds but with
T2122 pegged near 100 I also want to careful
not to overextend with long positions.
Yesterday’s indecisive
price action yesterday gave way to bullish excitement
during the evening after hearing the Congress has a deal to avoid another government
shutdown. The good news spread around
the world with Asian markets closing with
substantial gains across the board. European
markets are also currently bullish across the board
with US Futures pointing to a Dow gap up around 200 points.
As exciting as this is please remember we still have the US/China
trade negotiations to deal with and the possible
tariff increase at the end of the month.
Let’s hope the negotiations
progress quickly and positively to clear this major stumbling block from the bullish
path of the market. Yesterday we
experienced a pop and drop because buyers failed to support the morning gap.
With the much bigger gap this morning we must also be careful not to chase and make sure buyers step supporting such a
big pop. News on then trade negotiations front could still create significant
price volatility so stay on toes and focused on price action.
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar 113 companies
stepping up to report today. Among the
notable today are: ATVI, AYR, AKAM, ARCC, BXMT, DENN, GRPN, HUBS, TAP, OXY,
SHOP, STE, TRIP, TWLO, UAA, WELL.
Action Plan
After a day of market indecision one of the stumbling blocks
appears to have been cleared last night as the Congress looks to have finally agreed on the budget avoiding another government
shutdown. US Futures almost immediately started to rally on that news and good
news has at this moment is suggesting a substantial gap up of more than 200 Dow
points.
Can we now sound the all clear? Not yet, remember we still have the bigger of
the stumbling blocks, US/China trade.
News on the current negotiations
could easily move the market dramatically so stay on your toes and don’t blindly chase this morning excitement at the
open. The trend is bullish and the bulls
are clearly in control but let’s make
sure we have buyers supporting this gap and not have the pop and drop we
experienced yesterday if you’re holding
long positions that gap into profit this morning remember that gaps are
gifts and consider taking some of those gains the bank.
Bullish trends coupled with a solid defense of key support last Friday
are providing a warm a fuzzy feeling this morning as the futures suggest a gap
up open. Positive earnings results have
played a key role in providing the
bullish energy and with another big week of earnings ahead lets hope that
continues. However, there are some very
big stumbling blocks traders will have to keep an eye on this week that could
easily derail current sentiment.
At the top of the list is the resumption of the US/China trade negotiations which of course the market is very sensitive too and
could quickly reverse the market on any negative new report. Secondly the Congress must work through their budget impasse or we face another
government shutdown Friday night. We should
expect the political spin to be disruptive. Last
but not least is the lingering threat of a global slowdown and possible recession
that keeps popping up in the news and weigh on the collective conscience of the
market. Let’s ride the bullishness as
long as it lasts but make sure you have a prepared plan if the bulls lose
footing due to political uncertainty.
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar we have 110 companies stepping up to report results. Among the notable reports today are, BHF, RE,
L, OHI, RICK, QSR & VNR.
Action Plan
The market faces a
very interesting week as the US/ China
trade negotiations resume and Congress
wrangles to break the impasse that could lead
us into another government shutdown on Friday.
There is also more rumbling in the news of
a possible global recession for the market to chew as well as a big week of earnings
reports. Despite the political uncertainty
the futures are pointing to a positive open this morning with European markets bullish and Asian markets have closed mixed on the day.
On Friday the Bulls did a very good job of defending key
price support levels. DIA 250, SPY 267, QQQ
166 & IWM 145. With the overall market
trend still bullish and Friday’s bullish defense the expected morning open paints
a positive chart pattern assuming the bulls can follow through. T2122 has relaxed enough
to give us room to the upside and the bulls have an obvious momentum
advantage. As good as all that sounds
remember the rules about chasing a morning gap.
Remember no matter the warm of the fuzzy
feeling of bullishness, political news certainly has the power to quickly shift sentiment so stay focused on
price an plan your risk carefully.
Once again US/China trade uncertainty raises its ugly head providing the Bears the energy to
drive back the Bulls and test key support levels. As uncomfortable as it might have been the tenacious Bulls stepped up and effectively defended
price supports and the overall bullish market
trend. Currently the futures are
suggesting that Bulls will once need a strong defense
with an opening gap down of more than 100 points.
Overall this pullback was expected and normal healthy price action but the political uncertainty raises an additional challenge as traders face the weekend risk. Remember you don’t have to trade every day and the view from this sideline can be very comforting as we head into the weekend. After a great month of profits the last thing I want to do is try and predict the outcome of political uncertainty and give back hard-earned gains. As a result my plan for the day is to protect my capital and quietly slide into a restful weekend.
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar we get a little break with only 52
companies reporting. Among the notable reports, ARNC, EXC, HAS, PSX & VTR.
Action Plan
Yesterday’s selloff became a bit
rough when the head of the US Economic Council reported that the US / China negotiations are still a long way from a
deal. The market then received a second blow when the Whitehouse moved the North
Korean meeting to March. Asian markets were lower across the board last night
while European markets mostly chop sideways nearly flat on the day. As I write this US Futures suggest a gap down
open testing yesterdays lows and key support levels.
On the bright side the key levels I mentioned in yesterdays
note held as support as the bulls effectively defended them with a nice late
day rally. With the looming political uncertainty
of US/China trade what will traders do as we head into the weekend? Without
question the bullish trend is currently still intact and this pullback is
nothing more than healthy price
action. However, it could easily become
serious if the bulls retreat ahead of the weekend. Let’s
hope the new cycle is quiet today, cooler heads prevail and bulls continue to
defend price support. Have a great
weekend everyone!
Futures this morning are
suggesting a lower open this morning, and although it’s down, it’s not bearish. In fact, I would say a market pullback or
consolidation is a sign of a healthy trend as long as the bulls defend support
levels. The Dow has rallied nearly 17% from
the market lows and a full month of bullish trading without a pullback. As resilient as the bulls have been, I doubt
they will give up easily and will likely fight to hold key price supports. In fact, this pullback could be very short
lived as long as earnings continue to roll out positively.
If the market simply consolidates
this can be a profitable time for stock pickers. If supports are defended a pullback can setup
new low-risk entries into existing trends?
So don’t fear a pullback embrace it because it’s the natural price
action of the market. It only becomes a
problem is support levels fail because that usually means significantly higher price
volatility. Keep an eye on support and
trend and remember Price is King.
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar,
we have a big dig day with 230 companies fessing up to earnings results. Some of the notable today are ANGI, MT, CAH, COLM, DNKN, EXPE, GRUB, K,
MAT, PENN, TWTR, TSN, WU, WWE & YUM.
Action Plan
Yesterday we saw a notable decline in bullish energy as the
market slid sideways in a very choppy price action day. This morning Futures are suggesting a
pullback with the Dow expected to gap
down more than 100 points. Although a
down day a pullback or merely a consolidation would be healthy for the overall market and does not at this time suggest bearishness. With more than 200 companies reporting today anything
is possible and futures could easily change their tune by the open.
Important support levels to watch
DIA 250, SPY 267, QQQ 166 & IWM 145.
If bulls can defend those supports levels or above the odds of the
bullish trend staying intact is very high. Breaking
those levels would add a bit of complication and likely see some fear and price
volatility return to the market. If the
market consolidates it can be a profitable
time for adept stock pickers as good patterns and trade setups will likely continue
to develop. As always stay focused on
price action trading the chart not your bias.
