Black Friday
If the news reports are correct, holiday shopping in-store and online as consumers displayed their economic confidence and ravenous desire to grab a Black Friday bargain. Unfortunately, that has not translated into bullish price action the US Futures. Instead, the market is reacting bearishly this morning with news reports suggesting the US/China trade war could extend well past the end of this year.
Currently, the Dow is pointing to a gap down of nearly 150 points testing Tuesdays low after the morning rush don’t be surprised to see very light and choppy price action as traders extend their holiday vacations and join the Black Friday shopping masses. My plan for the day is to monitor current positions only and avoid adding risk into the weekend.
On the Calendar
We have only 9-companies reporting earnings on this partial day of trading. That number will jump up between the 40’s the and 50’s next week as some of the last 4th quarter reports continue to trickle in.
Action Plan
New concerns that the China trade war could extend through the 2020 presidential election has the US Futures turning south this morning. According to news reports Thanksgiving in-store and online sales may have hit new record highs yesterday as confident consumers shopped a good deal of the holiday. Best Buy has reported Thursday transactions numbers were higher than ever. With the Black Friday shoppers already filling the stores this morning it looks like Santa is doing his part at least in the retail space.
My plan today is to monitor current positions and avoid the temptation of adding new risk ahead the weekend. Volume will likely be extremely light and price action choppy which makes the risk greater than the potential reward in my opinion. As a result, I intend to extend my holiday as will most other traders. If you do decide to trade today, I would suggest keeping in it small and remember that Cyber Monday often is a very last luster day as well so plan your risk accordingly.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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Trade Planner,Trade Log
Negative Territory
Another nasty day of selling in the tech sector, breaking below Octobers low, and lead the overall market into negative territory for the year. On the positive side the DIA, SPY, and IWM managed to hold at the support of Octobers low, but there is so much technical damage in the charts its difficult to call that victory. Both the QQQ and the SPY are at risk of joining the IWM with their 50-day averages crossing below the 200-day averages in the very near future. The so-called death cross.
Yesterday before the market had even closed there were traders predicting this is the bottom. Really? Yes, this could be a bottom, and this morning we are getting a nice oversold bounce but consider the fact it may be just a resting point before resuming the downtrend. See the price action for what it is not for what you want it to be! Gamble and you may win, but you have an equal chance of just providing liquidity. Remember volume is likely to decline sharply after the morning rush so plans your risk into the holiday carefully! I wish you all the very best and Happy Thanksgiving.
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar, we have less than 40 companies reporting earnings as we head into the holiday. Notable reports today are ADSK, BILI, BJ, BZUN, CPRT, DE, FL, GPS, KEYS, SE.
Action Plan
After yesterdays nasty gap down and selloff, the indices are once again in negative territory for the year. Now the question is will the October lows hold as the price support for the DIA, SPY, and IWM? The QQQ’s yesterday broke support creating yet another layer of resistance as the tech sector continues to slide lower. This morning futures are suggesting a bounce this morning, and I’m already seeing traders trying to predict that this is the bottom.
After sliding 1000 points in just two days, it might be wise to consider that this mornings rally is merely a short-term oversold rally! Sure you could gamble and win but its still a straight up gamble nothing more! We have a very busy economic calendar this morning and some important earnings reports, but after the morning rush volume is likely to drop quickly as traders head out for their holiday plans. I want to wish every one of you a very Happy Thanksgiving!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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Gap Spinning Top Doji
Yesterday we saw the SPY gap down and closed with a Spinning Top Doji. I don’t subscribe to the idea of a Doji being a buy signal as many do, I do believe the Doji represents indecision, a time for rest, re-think direction. $270.60 is about 50% of the recent low and recent high making it an important horizontal line to have on a chart. Sellers are still in control and can be easily seen by adding a downtrend line to the tops of price action. It has been my experience more money can be made by trading with the trend, not against the trend and to have patience when you think the trend is turning.
Thanksgiving Week Trade Ideas
With this being a holiday week low market volume, Thursday market closed and Friday a half day I have decided to suspend any new trade ideas until Monday. We will post trade ideas as they appear on LTA-Live Trading Alerts Real Time Market Scanner in the trading room.
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QQQ
Yesterday as I evaluated the index charts I mentioned my biggest concern was the vulnerability of the QQQ chart and its ability to drag the market lower. Unfortunately, with the WSJ reporting fresh concerns about FB leadership and AAPL cutting production of its new iPhone’s, the QQQ’s broke support as the tech index tumbled 3.25%.
Asian markets follow the US lower overnight, and European markets are lower across the board this morning. As a result, US Futures indicate a substantial gap down with the QQQ set to test Octobers low at the open. As the holiday approaches volumes are very likely to decline after Wednesday’s open so plan your risk carefully and remember cash is a position!
On the Calendar
On the Earnings Calendar, we nearly 60 companies reporting earnings today. Notables include A, ADI, BBY, BECN, CPB, HRL, INTU, JEC, KSS, LB, LOW, MDT, NUAN, PSTG, ROST, SFL, TGT, TJX, URBN.
Action Plan
My concern about the QQQ chart became a reality yesterday with new that AAPL has slashed production of its new iPhone’s and more concerns about FB leadership surfaced. The NASDAQ broke support sliding 3.25% dragging the rest of the market lower as it declined. Now a test of the October low and possibly lower seems inevitable for the QQQ. Currently, the US Futures indicate sharp declines at the open as the technical damage in the charts continues to grow.
Historically the influence of Santa should begin, but those eight little reindeer have to battle a tremendous headwind this year. Asian markets were sharply lower overnight, and currently European are down across the board. As bearish as all that sounds be careful not to chase short positions near support with a gap down open. Wait to make sure there are follow-through sellers supporting the gap. At this time the VIX is indicating fear, but if the market breaks to new lows, we will have to watch for signs of panic selling. Keep in mind volume will likely decrease substantially on Wednesday so plan your risk carefully as we head into the holiday.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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November 15 Lows Hold For Now?
The SPY slide yesterday but held above the November 15 lows for now. I am not boosting that is fantastic or anything just simply an observation. The bulls are getting their butts kicked as they try to fight back. Until we have a winner, this will be a troubled market to trade. I have fewer positions on and less invested in lowering my risk exposure. The SPY weekly chart is hanging from the 50-SMA, and that is never good. If the bulls can’t find a way to get back above the 50-SMA price action will need to find friendly support and the $246.00 area could be the story.
The first step for the bulls is to find a reason to find support above $270.50, then $275.90 and lastly (for now) $281.15. Below $270.50 the sellers will work for $265.30 and $260.00
Thanksgiving Week Trade Ideas
With this being a holiday week low market volume, Thursday market closed and Friday a half day I have decided to suspend any new trade ideas until Monday. We will post trade ideas as they appear on LTA-Live Trading Alerts Real Time Market Scanner in the trading room.
_______________________________________________________
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- Hit and Run Candlesticks
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- Top Gun Day Trading
- 30-Day Trial
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The two most important pieces of software Rick uses is LTA – Live Trading Alerts Get your 30-Day Trial, and TC2000 Charting Receive $25.00 Off
Rick has dialed them in for max performance, and he freely shares his insights on what makes the tools the best and how to use them. Rick is also one of the only traders in the industry that shares his trading account. Traspaerancey and Trading Results.
Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching
YouTube Videos
Trading at the Beach • How to set up the T-Line Regression Lines • MetaStock Automated • Trading the T-Line Trap • Shorting the Blue Ice Pattern
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from us should be considered as financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Happy Thanksgiving Week
Happy Thanks Giving Week. This week will be a challenge for sure with Tuesday getting ready for Thanksgiving, Wednesday Thanksgiving Day, Thursday the day after Thanksgiving. Friday is Black Friday, and the market is open ½ day, then teres Cyber Monday. The volume in the markets will likely dry up to near dust. In the trading room today we will look at my dark chart with no candles or price action, moving averages only. You will see the trouble the bulls are fighting. The 34-EMA is barely hovering over the 200-SMA, and the 50-SMA started to turn down in early October. Under $275.85 the bulls are sitting ducks and could be forced to test the November possible the October lows. 7:30 am SPY futures down 10.00 and DIA down 85.00
FEYE On The Watchlist
FEYE is on the watchlist because of the trend, and the possible follow through freon the current chart pattern. Bullish trend. Volume break on October 31, and now price is having around supporting about $17.90. Thursday and Friday showed buyer interest near the Volatility Stop. Over $18.80 probable test of $19.50. Over $19.50 probable teat of near the recent high, so on and so on.
Add FEYE to your LTA-Live Trading Alerts Real Time Market Scanner watchlist and be alerted for a bullish entry/trade. Members trade ideas will be on the member’s blog.
Trading Services We Offer
- Hit and Run Candlesticks
- Right Way Options
- Top Gun Day Trading
- 30-Day Trial
321% This Year
The two most important pieces of software Rick uses is LTA – Live Trading Alerts Get your 30-Day Trail and TC2000 Charting Recieve $25.00 Off
Rick has dialed them in for max performance, and he freely shares his insights on what makes the tools the best and how to use them. Rick is also one of the only traders in the industry that shares his trading account. Traspaerancey and Trading Results.
Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching
YouTube Videos
Trading at the Beach • How to set up the T-Line Regression Lines • MetaStock Automated • Trading the T-Line Trap • Shorting the Blue Ice Pattern
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from us should be considered as financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
