Turbulent Price Action

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Turbulent Price Action

Turbulent Price ActionPut your tray table in the upright and locked position, fasten your seat-belts low and tight across your lap because traders should expect some turbulent price action this week.  With nearly 900 companies stepping up to report in the midst of a market correction could be volatility’s definition of the perfect storm.  Expect very fast price action and daily market gaps as just a couple of the challenges traders will face.

Asian and European markets are bullish thus the US Futures are pointing to a gap up open this morning.  Is this confirmation of higher lows in the indexes or a prelude to another nasty whipsaw?  Only time will tell but be careful chasing the morning gap.  Wait for proof that buyers step in supporting the gap and as always have a plan to manage the risk before you enter.  If you don’t feel you have an edge, then protect your capital and don’t trade.  Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

On the Calendar

We start Monday with a light Economic Calendar and no expected market-morning reports throughout the day.  The Chicago Fed National Activity Index kicks off the day at @ 8:30 AM Eastern.  We have two Bill Announcements @ 11:00 AM and two Bill Auctions at 11:30 AM to end the calendar day.

Traders will need to stay very alert and flexible this week as the 4th quarter earnings season kicks into high gear with nearly 900 companies reporting.  Today there are 77 expected to fess up to their result today with the most notable being CADE, HAL, HAS, IQV, KMB, ONB, PETS, PHG, PII, SALT, TCF.

Action Plan

Market correction jitters coupled with nearly 900 earnings reports this week will likely create a very challenging price action this week.  Morning gaps, fast price action, high volatility, head fakes, whipsaw, and earnings reports are just a few of the issues traders may have to deal with this week.  While very quick day traders may find this kind of market very much their liking, swing traders may find it very difficult to find or maintain an edge.

Asian markets closed sharply higher across the board last night with Shanghai rallying over 4 percent.  European markets are also decidedly bullish this morning, up nearly half a percent.  As a result, the current US Futures are suggesting a gap up of more than 75 points Dow points at the open.  Although it’s encouraging the indexes could be putting a higher low we also must give respect to the price resistance that rejected last Tuesdays big rally.  Anything is possible so buckle up everyone it could be an exciting yet very bumpy ride!

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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OKTA Setup and Trade Plan

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Today’s Featured Trade Idea is OKTA.

Members can join us in Trading Room #1 as Rick reviews this setup and other Trade-Ideas at 9:10am Eastern.  For now, here are my own analysis and a potential trade plan made using our Trader Vision 20/20 software.

OKTA has been in a bearish trend for a month and a half. It broke the 50sma on a strong down move rallied back and failed the 50sma again on an Evening Star signal. This is a classic “Ice Hole” or “Blue Ice Failure.” The next expected target would be the 200sma below. It is also forming a “Dreaded-h” pattern that is near b/o.

I will look to Enter Short just below the next Support level and use a Stop protected by a couple resistance levels. The targets are defined by S/R levels from the Weekly chart.

Trader Vision shows us that we have plenty of time until the next earnings report. It also shows us the setup has 2 bullish and 4 Bearish conditions (and that Evening Star signal on Thursday).

TV20/20 tells us this plan offers 2:1 Reward/Risk at the 1st Target and that we do not even need to reach Target #1 to achieve our Trade Goal. That said, it requires a very large position size for this account to do so. If we can sell half at Target #1 and the rest at the 2nd Target, we’d make a tidy 10.6% for almost a 2:1 Reward/Risk ($585/$235).

Having this knowledge before a trade is even entered makes it much easier to control emotions and maintain discipline.

Below is my markup of the chart and the trade plan as laid out by Trader Vision 20/20.  As a bonus, if you click the green button below, you’ll be able to watch a video of the chart markup and trade planning process.

The OKTA Trade Setup – As of 10-19-18

OKTA Chart Setup as of 10-19-18

The Trade Plan

OKTA Trade Plan for 10-22-18

Note how Trader Vision 20/20 does so much of the work for you.  Knowing the ratio of Bullish Conditions to Bearish ones as well as the overall risk of the position size, the risk to Stop out and the Reward possible at each Target price can help a great deal with controlling our emotions.  Knowing the dollar impact of every scenario ahead of time, allows us to make calm decisions during the trade.  It really takes the pressure off.  No guesswork.  No surprises.  No emotional roller coaster.

To see a short video of this trade’s chart markup and trade planning, click the button below.

 

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Testimonial

Trader Vision immediately simplified the process…immediately it provided that information and guidance to me. I knew what I would risk for how much reward, I began taking trades off at the 1st target, 2nd target, I was no longer holding all my trades for the homerun. I also began implementing the stop losses if and when they were reached, not just hoping the stock would recover.  It then became easier to see what patterns were working for me and which were not.  It provided a much more relaxed and stress-free environment. –Joan G

 

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Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and are not suitable for everyone. Ed Carter is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or investment advice to anyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

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OKTA Pattern Looks Bearish

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OKTA Pattern Looks Bearish

The OKTA pattern looks bearish with a target around $46.60. The chart is showing us three failed tops, a Shooting Star that helped to kick off a Blue ice failure. Price has also broken below the T-Line Regression Lines. If price can’t take the 50-SMA back price may have to fall to about $46.60 to find safety and buyers.

YouTube for free education

If you are looking for free, high-quality education check out my YouTube Channel, over the years, I have posted videos on Candlesticks, eLearning and specific subjects and a great deal more. Also please let me know of any subjects you would like me to talk about on YouTube – Thank you https://www.youtube.com/user/ricksaddler?sub_confirmation=1

Past performance is not indicative of future returns

Good Trading, Rick, and Trading Team

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SPY • SP-500 What a Mess!

With over 740 earning reports this weak you would think the market would shake rattle and roll. This morning the futures are very slightly up ( no clue there). Friday price closed on the 200-SMA. The price pattern is drawing something, either a British “H” pattern or the second low in a Bullish reversal. There is not enough information to see clearly.

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****VXX – The VXX chart is trying to put together a bullish J-Hook, right now the 200-SMA is keeping the monster back.

Focus Trading Education

Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trend • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Trade Planning, Fibonacci, Stoch/RSI

Testimonial

This is not your usual service that sends out a ton of stock recommendations, and then cherry picks the winners to show you how great they are. Hit and Run Candlesticks and Right Way Options are truly educational services. They taught me how to trade not what to trade. The entire team: Rick, Doug, Steve, and Ed are there to help and answer your questions. They are awesome. They cut years off my learning curve. And it’s a team effort. Everyone in the room (all the members) are there to help with invaluable insights and advice. The only service you will ever need. Thanks to all the team for how you have helped me and for all you do. –Jonathan Bolnick

Rare to have a service teach you how they find their choices but, HRC/RWO teach you how to fish instead of fishing for you. And, your ideas are not panned but shared, implemented, or improved. Sharing is caring. –Thomas Bradly

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future returns

Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, Right Way Option, Trader Vision 2020, Top Gun Futures or Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is not a licensed financial adviser nor do they offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.

 

 

Trust

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Trust

TrustCan we trust what we see this morning? The futures markets are suggesting a gap up open recovering part of Thursday’s 327 point selloff.  However, with Asian markets having sold off strongly last night and European markets mostly lower this morning I would be very careful not to rush in this morning.  With the weekend approaching and tensions growing not only with China but also Saudi Arabia we seem perfectly set up for a pop and drop this morning.

Please understand this not a prediction, and I honestly hope that doesn’t occur, but I do think we should consider the possibility.  After the open watch price action carefully to see it, there is follow-through buying supporting the gap or not.  Volatility remains high so consider carefully how much risk your willing to hold into the weekend.

On the Calendar

The Existing Home Sales report tops Friday’s Economic Calendar at 10:00 AM eastern time.  Forecasters suggest a slight decline to 5.300 million in September vs. August’s 5.340 million.  We have Fed Speakers at 11:30 AM, 12:00 PM and 12:45 PM  with the Baker-Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 PM closing out the calendar week.

With only 30 companies reporting today we have a lull before next weeks storm of nearly 900 companies reporting.  Today before the bell watch for reports from CFG, CLF, GNTX, HON, IPG, KSU, MAN, PG, SLB, STI, STT, SYF, VFC as the most notable.

Action Plan

Yesterday’s selloff was a nasty reminder that the volatility of this selloff it far from over and that it’s possible we have not seen the full measure of this correction just yet.  Asian markets had a rough night selling off strongly after missing economic growth targets.  Trade tensions between the US and China continue to grow with very harsh comments coming from the commerce secretary yesterday.

With European markets currently mixed but mostly lower this morning it’s a little surprising that the US Futures are suggesting a bullish open today.  Is it real or a head-fake that could produce a pop and drop pattern heading into the weekend?  Only time will tell.  Clearly, price action has been very challenging this week, and with the weekend approaching think long a hard about the risk you plan to hold.  Tough talk from the White-house of serious ramifications against Saudi Arabia also weighs on the mind of the market with the weekend approaching.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Uncertainty FED Elections Trade China

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Uncertainty FED Elections Trade China

Uncertainty in the air right now with the FED, Elections, Trade, and China slowing down. For most traders this has been a hard week to trade and make money, price action has mostly been choppy and hasn’t gone anywhere. Price action has gravitated to the 200-SMA and seems to be sticking around the area. Earnings have been for the most part positive, but there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the air right now with the FED, Elections, Trade, China slowing down and such. This is the kind of stuff the market does not like.

We know that charts can change pretty fast based on good or bad news, take a look at the weekly chart of the SPY. The chart pattern is a Bearish Doji Continuation pattern, the price is below all three T-Regression Lines, and the Vol-Stop is still negative. The 80/20 rule has been a valuable rule for me over the years, 80% of stock follow the SPY/SP-500, something to think about.

Past performance is not indicative of future returns

Happy Friday!

Good Trading, Rick, and Trading Team

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Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, Right Way Option, Trader Vision 2020 or Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.

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ERY Setup and Trade Plan

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Today’s Featured Trade Idea is ERY .

Members can join us in Trading Room #1 as Rick reviews this setup and other Trade-Ideas at 9:10am Eastern.  For now, here are my own analysis and a potential trade plan made using our Trader Vision 20/20 software.

Note: Beware the overall market indecision. Mixed trends (short and long-term) and very volatile action (many “gap and fade” as well as intra-day reversals) make this a treacherous market.  Bear Market bounces are not when we should be getting very long in our account unless we are very quick and agile in our trading style.  This chart also lays out far less than optimal.  Great caution should be used!

ERY has been putting in a bottom since Spring. In the last week it formed a Bullish Pennant-type and is consolidating right at S/R. No earnings to worry about for this ETF itself, but the underlying companies will report over the next few weeks. Also keep in mind that anything in the news related to Saudi Arabia (or Iran) can greatly impact Energy markets.

Also note that the 200sma must be breached prior to the 1st target and there may even be a S/R level about $37.50 that needs to also be breached. Much caution is advised.

That said, you see the b/o Entry, protected Stop and Targets off Weekly charts that I laid out.

Trader Vision shows us that ERY has no earnings of its own to worry about. However, as an ETF, the underlying industry companies will report and that may well impact ERY. It also shows us that this is a dicey market to trade. Only 3 bullish conditions and 2 bearish conditions are in place for this trade.

TV20/20 then tells us this trade plan is questionable. At the first target, we do achieve better than 2:1 Reward/Risk. However, the dollar gain is minimal (if we sold the entire position there we would only make $234.50). Still, if we can sell half there and then achieve the 2nd target, we can net a 4.18:1 Reward/Risk overall and a $409.50 profit.

While this demonstrates the process of trade planning, this is an example of a trade I would personally pass on due to market and industry volatility as well as a weak layout.

Again, both common sense and Trader Vision are urging caution in this market. While this is a nice chart setup, not every day is one to be trading and a Bear Market Trend bounce it’s certainly not a great time to be taking on as many Long trades.

Having this knowledge before a trade is even entered makes it much easier to control emotions and maintain discipline.

Below is my markup of the chart and the trade plan as laid out by Trader Vision 20/20.  As a bonus, if you click the green button below, you’ll be able to watch a video of the chart markup and trade planning process.

The ERY Trade Setup – As of 10-17-18

ERY Chart Setup for 10-17-18

The Trade Plan

ERY Trade Plan for 10-18-18

Note how Trader Vision 20/20 does so much of the work for you.  Knowing the ratio of Bullish Conditions to Bearish ones as well as the overall risk of the position size, the risk to Stop out and the Reward possible at each Target price can help a great deal with controlling our emotions.  Knowing the dollar impact of every scenario ahead of time, allows us to make calm decisions during the trade.  It really takes the pressure off.  No guesswork.  No surprises.  No emotional roller coaster.

To see a short video of this trade’s chart markup and trade planning, click the button below.

 

[button_2 color=”light-green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/XEdrDk7xfiA” new_window=”Y”]Trade Plan Video[/button_2]

Put the power to Trader Vision 20/20 to work for you…

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Testimonial

Trader Vision immediately simplified the process…immediately it provided that information and guidance to me. I knew what I would risk for how much reward, I began taking trades off at the 1st target, 2nd target, I was no longer holding all my trades for the homerun. I also began implementing the stop losses if and when they were reached, not just hoping the stock would recover.  It then became easier to see what patterns were working for me and which were not.  It provided a much more relaxed and stress-free environment. –Joan G

 

***************************************************************************************************

Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and are not suitable for everyone. Ed Carter is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or investment advice to anyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

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Price is King

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Price is King

Price is KingAlthough we have access to a plethora of fancy indicators on your charting platform simply technical analysis of price action support, resistance, and trend still rule supreme.  Price is King!  Tuesday’s, big rally pushed the major right into price resistance levels.  Yesterday, resistance did its job preventing a follow move higher, and the clues to that possibility were evident to those that study price.

If your struggling, try cleaning up your charts and work on the fundamentals of technical analysis.  All those colorful charts sure look impressive but if it’s not making you money,  what’s the point of cluttering a chart with them?  We only make money when the price moves so put more effort into reading price, and your trading will likely improve.  After all, if your account is proving to you that what your doing now isn’t working then its time to make a change don’t you think?

On the Calendar

The Thursday Economic Calendar begins with the Weekly Jobless claims at 8:30 AM Eastern.  According to consensus estimates are expected to come in at 215,000 vs. 214,000 last week.  Also at 8:30 AM is the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey which expects a slight pullback to 20.0 in October vs. the 22.9 reading in September.  After that, Leading Indicators @ 10:00 AM, EIA Natural Gas report @ 10:30 AM, 6-bond events @ 11:00 AM, 30-yr TIPS Auction at 1:00 PM, with the Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply coming in @ 4:30 PM.  We have Fed Speakers at 9:00 AM and 12:15 PM today as well.

On the Earnings Calendar, we have the biggest day this week with 82 companies reporting.  Make sure you’re checking reporting dates before entering positions, with about 900 companies reporting next week traders will need to stay focused.

Action Plan

I don’t know if your like me but when the market is tossing about and I have little to no edge to trade, I tend to get a bit frustrated and bored.  That’s a dangerous combination of emotion for a trader!  Taking bad risks simply to have something to do can cause a lot of damage to a traders account.  So what’s a trader to do?  Here are few suggestions that always help me.

Clean up watch lists, work on your charting and trading platform to gain efficiency and learn new skills.  Study, new chart and candlestick patterns digging into the price action of the charts to improve your recognition skills.  Do a detailed review of past losing trades looking for mistakes that you can avoid in the future.  Learn that new a new trading strategy you’ve been putting off or do a deep dive into the details of the indicators you use.  Turn on your paper trade system and practice your price action skills or perhaps develop a new skill such as placing OCO & and conditional orders.  That’s just a few ideas off the top of my head that make times like this more productive, and in the long run make you a better more well-rounded trader.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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RBB Breakout Above $36.50

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RBB Breakout Above $36.50

ERY is on our watchlist, and we are looking for an RBB breakout above $36.50. The 2-Day chart shows impressive price action the past three days above the 50-SMA and the T-Line Regression lines. A pop on ERY could send the price to the Dotted Deuce for a nice little relief rally trade. The 200-SMA would be the stretch target. G

The Road to Wealth Update

As of the close 10/17/18, the account is on track with a 363% YTD. We are long WMT, and PZZA both are green and working (not very fast mind you). We only added one new trade yesterday. We are kicking of Road to Wealth Live today – more info to come.

 

Past performance is not indicative of future returns

Good Trading, Rick, and Trading Team

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SPY • SP-500 What a Mess!

The SPY has lifted off the 200-SMA but remains in the sketchy territory. The Weekly is still looking at a red V-Stop and price on the weekly chart is still under all the T-line regression Lines sketchy, sketchy, sketchy. Above $280.45 the SPY could see $283.15, and that puts price closer to a resistance problem.

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****VXX – Over $32.50 the VXX could wake up.

Focus Trading Education

Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trend • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Trade Planning, Fibonacci, Stoch/RSI

Testimonial

This is not your usual service that sends out a ton of stock recommendations, and then cherry picks the winners to show you how great they are. Hit and Run Candlesticks and Right Way Options are truly educational services. They taught me how to trade not what to trade. The entire team: Rick, Doug, Steve, and Ed are there to help and answer your questions. They are awesome. They cut years off my learning curve. And it’s a team effort. Everyone in the room (all the members) are there to help with invaluable insights and advice. The only service you will ever need. Thanks to all the team for how you have helped me and for all you do. –Jonathan Bolnick

Rare to have a service teach you how they find their choices but, HRC/RWO teach you how to fish instead of fishing for you. And, your ideas are not panned but shared, implemented, or improved. Sharing is caring. –Thomas Bradly

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future returns

Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, Right Way Option, Trader Vision 2020, Top Gun Futures or Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is not a licensed financial adviser nor do they offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.