Fed Gains, China Worries

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Wednesday saw a Q3 GDP beat (1.9% vs 1.6% expected) and the Fed cutting rates a third time on the year, by a quarter percent (just as expected).  Chairman Powell did indicate a “pause in easing” lay ahead but went on to say the FOMC would need to see “really significant” inflation indications to raise rates anytime in the foreseeable future.  (Two Fed voters did dissent, believing rates should have been left unchanged.) 

After a flat to mildly down morning, the Fed decision resulted in a rally.  This left the SPY and DIA up about 0.3% and the QQQ up about half a percent on the day.  All three indices managed to bounce up off support during the day.  The QQQ printed a Bullish Harami, while the IWM printed what could be a Bearish Hanging Man signal.  The SPY and DIA did not print a signal on Thursday.

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On the downside, Chile canceled the APEC meeting where President Trump was to meet President Xi.  As of now, there is no announced backup plan for signing the partial Trade Deal with China.  Worse than that, Bloomberg reports this morning that “Chinese officials” have told Western visitors they will never budge on the major issues and they doubt any Long-Term Trade Deal is even possible with President Trump in place.  Further, they urged Westerners to take word back to the U.S. that without additional tariff rollbacks by the US, more substantial negotiations beyond the partial “resuming 2017 grain purchase levels in return for no new tariffs” deal are not going to result in anything.

After the close, both AAPL, FB and KLAC all reported significant beats and saw corresponding rallies in post-market trading Wednesday.  Meanwhile APA, CF and LNC all reported misses.  It is also worth noting that TWTR announced it will no longer accept political ads, which may (or not) be a drag on their revenue since we are going into an election year.  This is in direct contrast to FB’s announcement from earlier this week.

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Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  In Europe, markets are red across the board with the exception of the FTSE (which is soaring on the hope of the UK Election changing the Brexit deadlock).  As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures were mixed but flat.

The Thursday economic calendar is limited to lesser inflation reports and Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am).   However, earnings are still going full speed with MO, AMT, ADM, BWA, BMY, CHD, CI, CLX, DD, EL, EXC, HBI, HFC, IP, KHC, MAC, MPC, PH, and WAB among those reporting before the bell today.

Earnings remain generally strong, with a few notable exceptions. Between this, the happiness with the Fed action, and the current trend, the bulls definitely have the upper hand.  However, be cautious as there are many earnings still to go and likely more twists and turns in the Trade War saga.

Ed

Swing-Trade Trade ideas for your consideration. Long – PM, PNR, PCAR, ARE, TSCO, NEE, INTC, APH, INFO, TSM, PPG, KHC. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Deluge of Events

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deluge of events

Today the market faces a literal deluge of events.  Nearly 380 companies report earnings, including big tech market-movers like AAPL & FB after the bell today.  At 8:30 AM Eastern, we get the latest reading on the GDP that the consensus estimate suggests will come in below 2 percent.  Then at 2:00 PM, the FOMC rate decision that may excite or disappoint the market, creating significant price volatility.  Swing and position traders will have tough decisions to make while quick and experienced day traders will likely have the upper hand.  Anything is possible, so think carefully about how you approach the day.

Asian markets, with the uncertainty of the Fed rate decision, looming closed the day down across the board.  European markets trade cautiously mixed but mostly lower this morning ahead of the big data dump.  US Futures that were down most the night are now hovering near the flat line ahead of the deluge of events.  There could be some excitement during the morning rush but don’t be surprised if the market action becomes light and choppy waiting on the FOMC decision.  After that, it’s anyone guess!

On the Calendar

Today we have the biggest round of earnings reports so far this season with nearly 380 companies fessing up to their results.  Notable earnings include AAPL, FB, AKS, AWK, APA, ARCC, ADP, BKR, EAT, BG, CME, CTCH, CROX, DIN, ETR, EWIX, ETSY, GRMN, GE, HCP, HES, H, LM, TREE, LYFT, MANT, MCK, MET, MGM, TAP, MYL, RCL, SPG, SNE, SO, S, SFM, STAG, SBUX, SU, SPWR, SKT, TDOC, TUP, TWLO, VIAV, WDC, WMB, WING, YUM, & ZNGA.

Action Plan

It’s always tough to know with to do on a day so chalked full of potentially market-moving events.  First, we have our biggest day of earnings reports so far this quarter with just short of 380 reports. Both AAPL and FB report after the bell today, which means anything is possible Thursday morning, making it a difficult decision on the risk held overnight.  Secondly, with a very big day on the economic calendar beginning with ADP numbers, the GDP report, Petroleum Status report, and then at 2:00 PM Eastern the FOMC decision on interest rates followed directly by the Chairman’s press conference.

Fed fund futures suggest a very high likelihood of a rate cut today, which of course, the market always loves.  The big question to be answered is will the FOMC hint of more possible cuts in the future or disappoint the market, suggesting they finished.  If so, might the market react negatively?  It’s anybody’s guess!  I would expect some volatility early in the morning session, but would not be at all surprised to see the market become very slow and choppy as we wait for the interest rate decision.  Futures were slightly bearish overnight but have recovered to suggest a flat open at the time of writing this report.  However, with so much data for the market to digest before the open, anything is possible, and we will have to stay on our toes and remain flexible.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Fed Decision, More Earnings

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Tuesday saw a small gap down on the prior evening miss by GOOG.  As you might expect, the QQQ took the biggest hit, but all indices were impacted.  After a morning rally trying to fade of the gap down, indices waffled most of the day.  The SPY and DIA ended flat (with larger upper wicks), but the QQQ printed an ugly black candle that faded about half of the Monday morning gap higher.  All in all, only the IWM continues to look like a nicely trending Bullish chart under the microscope.

Then after the bell Tuesday, CHRW, CXO, OKE, UNM, and VRSK all reported misses. Meanwhile, AMGN, CB, EA, FMC, MXIM, MDLZ, and SYK all reported beats.  It was also released after-hours that the Tuesday BA testimony in front of the US Senate disclosed that a Boeing Production Manager had tried to halt production until problems were addressed.  However, he was overruled by management, which led to the two crashes. These may all help move markets at the Open.

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The Wednesday economic calendar includes ADP Payroll (8:15 am), Q3 GDP (8:30 am), Oil Inventories (10:30 am), but most importantly the FOMC Interest Rate Decision (2 pm) and FOMC Chair Press Conf. (2:30 pm).  Among the major companies reporting before the bell Wed. are ADP, BKR, CME, GE, HES, MAS, MCK, TAP, NI, RCL, SO, WCG, and YUM. (GE beat and raised guidance, while YUM and TAP both missed already this morning.)

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Overnight, Asian markets were red.  In Europe, markets are mixed so far.  As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures were indicating a flat open with the DIA pointing up 0.1%, the SPY pointing down 0.05% and the QQQ pointing up 0.15%.

Earnings continue to be generally good, with some notable exceptions. However, it is the Fed that is likely to call the tune today, with markets fairly likely to continue assuming a rate cut while still waiting for the announcement to be sure.  So, don’t be surprised by lighter volumes and a more “wait and see” attitude in the market.  The trend continues to be in the bull’s favor.  However, be cautious, because the risk is on the side off Fed disappointment and there are major earnings reports still looming (like AAPL and FB after-hours Wed.).

Ed

Swing-Trade Trade ideas for your consideration. Long – COG, PM, AFL, UNH, TSM, PPG, AA, VMW, DE, JEC, JWN, KSS, CPRT. Short – KO, CINF, LMT, NOC, IBM. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Record Highs

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The question of a new record high received an affirmative answer yesterday as both the SPY and QQQ finally broke through the stubborn resistance level.  However, before we can officially claim victory and sound the all-clear signal, they must now prove they can hold this new level as support.  Earnings disappointments after the bell yesterday have the US Futures looking a bit pensive this morning as we face more than 250 new reports today.  The bulls are clearly in control but stay flexible and focused on price action because sentiment can change with such a barrage of data.   

Overnight, Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower, and the European markets this morning currently are flat to mostly lower as they monitor earnings and the pending UK Brexit related election.  US Futures trade mixed this morning with Dow pointing to bearish open that seems to be getting heavier as the morning progress, but that could quickly change though out the morning depending on earning results. 

On the Calendar

Tuesday’s Economic Calendar indicates more than 250 companies will report results today.  Notable reports include AMD, ALL, AMGN, AOS, AN, BIDU, SAM, BP, CAKE, CB, COP, GLW, CMI, DENN, DLR, ECL, EA, EPR, EXR, FEYE, GM, GRUB, HCA, HLF, IR, K, KKR, LDOS, MA, MAT, MRK, MDLZ, PAYC, PFE, PSA, SPGI, SHOP, SYK, WH, XRX, YUMC, & EXN.

Action Plan

Yesterday the SPY and QQQ finally found the inspiration to break out while the DIA continues to struggle with price resistance.  Breaking out is only one step in the equation; now, they must prove it can hold the new lofty prices as support.  As we wait for the FOMC interest rate decision, we have another big day of earnings reports to digest as well as the Case-Shiller Report, Consumer Confidence, and Pending Home Sales.  Price volatility is likely during the early session, but it could significantly slow after the morning rush as we wait on the FOMC.

Technically Speaking, the Bulls are in control with all four of the major indexes holding above their 50-day averages.  However, with earnings misses after the bell such as GOOGL, the Futures seem a bit pensive this morning ahead of a fresh round of reports.  As I am writing this report the Futures are mixed with the Dow suggesting a slightly lower open.  That, of course, can quickly change for the better or worse as the morning earning reports roll out in quick succession.  T2122 suggests there is still room to move higher, although beginning to look a bit extended as the VIX tests a 12 handle. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Earnings Plus the Fed is Back

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Monday saw a strong gap higher as both T and WBA beat during the premarket and the attraction of all-time highs proved irresistible.  The President had also tweeted that Trade War Negotiations were ahead of schedule (whatever that means).  Regardless of the drivers, the SPY and QQQ both ended the day at new all-time high closes.  The IWM also broke out of its recent resistance level and the DIA lagged, staying within its two-week range despite the gap-up.

The Tuesday economic calendar includes Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and Sept. Pending Home Sales (both at 10 am).  The FOMC also begins its two-day meeting (with the market “pricing in” a rate cut on Wed.).  However, earnings are likely to steal the show again today, with GOOG (miss) and TMUS (beat) having reported after the bell Monday.  Among the pre-market reporters on Tuesday are COP, GLW, CMI, ETN, ECL, GM, IR, K, MLM, MRK, PFE, and XRX. (COP, MRK, PFE, and K all reported beats this am. GM missed and lowered on strike effects.)

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Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, with China showing red.  In Europe, red was the color of the day across the board so far.  As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures were indicating a gap down of 0.1% in the DIA, 0.2% in the SPY and 0.3% in the QQQ.

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With the Fed show back in town, reduced rhetoric on the China Trade War front and generally good earnings reports, the Bulls are feeling no pain. However, each of those 3 factors could be a double-edged sword. If the Fed doesn’t do as expected (or just says the wrong thing), or we have a new flare-up in US-China threats, or we catch a couple of missed earnings (or bad guidance) from major names…things could change in a heartbeat. Don’t be surprised by lighter volumes and a more “wait and see” attitude in the market Tuesday.  The bulls are running, but be cautious, and remember to take profits along the way.

Ed

Swing-Trade Trade ideas for your consideration. Long – PM, CNC, AFL, TSM, JBHT, PNC, DG, JEC, AMAT, BERY, JWN, KSS. Short – CINF, NOC, KO, CSX, TTWO, MDT. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your trade. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

A Fire Hose of Data

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Fire Hose of Data

A busy economic calendar and about 900 companies reporting earnings will give the market a fire hose of data to digest this week.  Wednesday afternoon, the FOMC is expected to cut the interest rate for the 3rd time this year, and we’ll cap the week with the Employment Situation and ISM reports.  Indeed a very busy week as the market knocks on the door of record highs. 

Asian markets closed the day green across the board on US-China trade optimism.  European markets are mixed but mostly higher this morning as the EU grants an extension to January 31 for Brexit.  US Futures are bullish this morning and may create new record highs in SPY, and the QQQ at the open assuming earnings reports and the International Trade in Goods report don’t change the current sentiment.  Buckle up; it could be a wild ride this week!

On the Calendar

The Monday Earnings Calendar had just short of 140 companies reporting quarterly results.  Notable reports include AKAM. GOOGL, T, AVB, BYND, CTB, EPD, LEG, L, NXPI, ON, QSR, SPOT, TXRH, TMUS, RIG, VNO, WBA, and WELL.

Action Plan

We had a nice weekend where there were no additional uncertainties, and in fact had a few resolutions.  First, according to reports, some provisions of the Phase 1 trade agreement are coming together.  The report was very thin on details but enough to move the market substantially toward record highs.  The Yield curve that shook the market a few months ago is improving, and the FOMC is expected to lower the interest rate for the 3rd time on Wednesday afternoon.  GM reached an agreement with striking workers, and the ISIS leader Baghdadi met his end this weekend improving the US relationship with Syria.

US Futures, suggest a bullish open that may print all-time highs in the SPY at the QQQ, at the time of writing this report.  Although the DIA is lagging behind, the bullish engulfing candle popping out of a consolidation rage on Friday suggests a break of the current downtrend is possible with the futures suggesting a gap up of about 70 points at the open.  Of course with a big round of earnings reports, this morning and the International Trade in Goods report at 8:30 AM Eastern anything is possible.  We have a very big week of economic data, so keep in mind price action could become very light and choppy as we wait.

Trade Wisely,

Doug