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Today the market faces a literal deluge of events. Nearly 380 companies report earnings, including big tech market-movers like AAPL & FB after the bell today. At 8:30 AM Eastern, we get the latest reading on the GDP that the consensus estimate suggests will come in below 2 percent. Then at 2:00 PM, the FOMC rate decision that may excite or disappoint the market, creating significant price volatility. Swing and position traders will have tough decisions to make while quick and experienced day traders will likely have the upper hand. Anything is possible, so think carefully about how you approach the day.

Asian markets, with the uncertainty of the Fed rate decision, looming closed the day down across the board. European markets trade cautiously mixed but mostly lower this morning ahead of the big data dump. US Futures that were down most the night are now hovering near the flat line ahead of the deluge of events. There could be some excitement during the morning rush but don’t be surprised if the market action becomes light and choppy waiting on the FOMC decision. After that, it’s anyone guess!

On the Calendar

Today we have the biggest round of earnings reports so far this season with nearly 380 companies fessing up to their results. Notable earnings include AAPL, FB, AKS, AWK, APA, ARCC, ADP, BKR, EAT, BG, CME, CTCH, CROX, DIN, ETR, EWIX, ETSY, GRMN, GE, HCP, HES, H, LM, TREE, LYFT, MANT, MCK, MET, MGM, TAP, MYL, RCL, SPG, SNE, SO, S, SFM, STAG, SBUX, SU, SPWR, SKT, TDOC, TUP, TWLO, VIAV, WDC, WMB, WING, YUM, & ZNGA.

Action Plan

It’s always tough to know with to do on a day so chalked full of potentially market-moving events. First, we have our biggest day of earnings reports so far this quarter with just short of 380 reports. Both AAPL and FB report after the bell today, which means anything is possible Thursday morning, making it a difficult decision on the risk held overnight. Secondly, with a very big day on the economic calendar beginning with ADP numbers, the GDP report, Petroleum Status report, and then at 2:00 PM Eastern the FOMC decision on interest rates followed directly by the Chairman’s press conference.

Fed fund futures suggest a very high likelihood of a rate cut today, which of course, the market always loves. The big question to be answered is will the FOMC hint of more possible cuts in the future or disappoint the market, suggesting they finished. If so, might the market react negatively? It’s anybody’s guess! I would expect some volatility early in the morning session, but would not be at all surprised to see the market become very slow and choppy as we wait for the interest rate decision. Futures were slightly bearish overnight but have recovered to suggest a flat open at the time of writing this report. However, with so much data for the market to digest before the open, anything is possible, and we will have to stay on our toes and remain flexible.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Fed Decision, More Earnings

October 30, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Tuesday saw a small gap down on the prior evening miss by GOOG. As you might expect, the QQQ took the biggest hit, but all indices were impacted. After a morning rally trying to fade of the gap down, indices waffled most of the day. The SPY and DIA ended flat (with larger upper wicks), but the QQQ printed an ugly black candle that faded about half of the Monday morning gap higher. All in all, only the IWM continues to look like a nicely trending Bullish chart under the microscope.

Then after the bell Tuesday, CHRW, CXO, OKE, UNM, and VRSK all reported misses. Meanwhile, AMGN, CB, EA, FMC, MXIM, MDLZ, and SYK all reported beats. It was also released after-hours that the Tuesday BA testimony in front of the US Senate disclosed that a Boeing Production Manager had tried to halt production until problems were addressed. However, he was overruled by management, which led to the two crashes. These may all help move markets at the Open.

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The Wednesday economic calendar includes ADP Payroll (8:15 am), Q3 GDP (8:30 am), Oil Inventories (10:30 am), but most importantly the FOMC Interest Rate Decision (2 pm) and FOMC Chair Press Conf. (2:30 pm). Among the major companies reporting before the bell Wed. are ADP, BKR, CME, GE, HES, MAS, MCK, TAP, NI, RCL, SO, WCG, and YUM. (GE beat and raised guidance, while YUM and TAP both missed already this morning.)

Overnight, Asian markets were red. In Europe, markets are mixed so far. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures were indicating a flat open with the DIA pointing up 0.1%, the SPY pointing down 0.05% and the QQQ pointing up 0.15%.

Earnings continue to be generally good, with some notable exceptions. However, it is the Fed that is likely to call the tune today, with markets fairly likely to continue assuming a rate cut while still waiting for the announcement to be sure. So, don’t be surprised by lighter volumes and a more “wait and see” attitude in the market. The trend continues to be in the bull’s favor. However, be cautious, because the risk is on the side off Fed disappointment and there are major earnings reports still looming (like AAPL and FB after-hours Wed.).

Swing-Trade Trade ideas for your consideration. Long – COG, PM, AFL, UNH, TSM, PPG, AA, VMW, DE, JEC, JWN, KSS, CPRT. Short – KO, CINF, LMT, NOC, IBM. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Trading Problems / Solutions

October 29, 2019 by Ed Carter

Record Highs

October 29, 2019 by Doug Campbell

The question of a new record high received an affirmative answer yesterday as both the SPY and QQQ finally broke through the stubborn resistance level. However, before we can officially claim victory and sound the all-clear signal, they must now prove they can hold this new level as support. Earnings disappointments after the bell yesterday have the US Futures looking a bit pensive this morning as we face more than 250 new reports today. The bulls are clearly in control but stay flexible and focused on price action because sentiment can change with such a barrage of data.

Overnight, Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower, and the European markets this morning currently are flat to mostly lower as they monitor earnings and the pending UK Brexit related election. US Futures trade mixed this morning with Dow pointing to bearish open that seems to be getting heavier as the morning progress, but that could quickly change though out the morning depending on earning results.

On the Calendar

Tuesday’s Economic Calendar indicates more than 250 companies will report results today. Notable reports include AMD, ALL, AMGN, AOS, AN, BIDU, SAM, BP, CAKE, CB, COP, GLW, CMI, DENN, DLR, ECL, EA, EPR, EXR, FEYE, GM, GRUB, HCA, HLF, IR, K, KKR, LDOS, MA, MAT, MRK, MDLZ, PAYC, PFE, PSA, SPGI, SHOP, SYK, WH, XRX, YUMC, & EXN.

Action Plan

Yesterday the SPY and QQQ finally found the inspiration to break out while the DIA continues to struggle with price resistance. Breaking out is only one step in the equation; now, they must prove it can hold the new lofty prices as support. As we wait for the FOMC interest rate decision, we have another big day of earnings reports to digest as well as the Case-Shiller Report, Consumer Confidence, and Pending Home Sales. Price volatility is likely during the early session, but it could significantly slow after the morning rush as we wait on the FOMC.

Technically Speaking, the Bulls are in control with all four of the major indexes holding above their 50-day averages. However, with earnings misses after the bell such as GOOGL, the Futures seem a bit pensive this morning ahead of a fresh round of reports. As I am writing this report the Futures are mixed with the Dow suggesting a slightly lower open. That, of course, can quickly change for the better or worse as the morning earning reports roll out in quick succession. T2122 suggests there is still room to move higher, although beginning to look a bit extended as the VIX tests a 12 handle.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Earnings Plus the Fed is Back

October 29, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Monday saw a strong gap higher as both T and WBA beat during the premarket and the attraction of all-time highs proved irresistible. The President had also tweeted that Trade War Negotiations were ahead of schedule (whatever that means). Regardless of the drivers, the SPY and QQQ both ended the day at new all-time high closes. The IWM also broke out of its recent resistance level and the DIA lagged, staying within its two-week range despite the gap-up.

The Tuesday economic calendar includes Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and Sept. Pending Home Sales (both at 10 am). The FOMC also begins its two-day meeting (with the market “pricing in” a rate cut on Wed.). However, earnings are likely to steal the show again today, with GOOG (miss) and TMUS (beat) having reported after the bell Monday. Among the pre-market reporters on Tuesday are COP, GLW, CMI, ETN, ECL, GM, IR, K, MLM, MRK, PFE, and XRX. (COP, MRK, PFE, and K all reported beats this am. GM missed and lowered on strike effects.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, with China showing red. In Europe, red was the color of the day across the board so far. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures were indicating a gap down of 0.1% in the DIA, 0.2% in the SPY and 0.3% in the QQQ.

With the Fed show back in town, reduced rhetoric on the China Trade War front and generally good earnings reports, the Bulls are feeling no pain. However, each of those 3 factors could be a double-edged sword. If the Fed doesn’t do as expected (or just says the wrong thing), or we have a new flare-up in US-China threats, or we catch a couple of missed earnings (or bad guidance) from major names…things could change in a heartbeat. Don’t be surprised by lighter volumes and a more “wait and see” attitude in the market Tuesday. The bulls are running, but be cautious, and remember to take profits along the way.

Swing-Trade Trade ideas for your consideration. Long – PM, CNC, AFL, TSM, JBHT, PNC, DG, JEC, AMAT, BERY, JWN, KSS. Short – CINF, NOC, KO, CSX, TTWO, MDT. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your trade. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Using StochRSI

October 28, 2019 by Ed Carter

A Fire Hose of Data

October 28, 2019 by Doug Campbell

A busy economic calendar and about 900 companies reporting earnings will give the market a fire hose of data to digest this week. Wednesday afternoon, the FOMC is expected to cut the interest rate for the 3^rd time this year, and we’ll cap the week with the Employment Situation and ISM reports. Indeed a very busy week as the market knocks on the door of record highs.

Asian markets closed the day green across the board on US-China trade optimism. European markets are mixed but mostly higher this morning as the EU grants an extension to January 31 for Brexit. US Futures are bullish this morning and may create new record highs in SPY, and the QQQ at the open assuming earnings reports and the International Trade in Goods report don’t change the current sentiment. Buckle up; it could be a wild ride this week!

On the Calendar

The Monday Earnings Calendar had just short of 140 companies reporting quarterly results. Notable reports include AKAM. GOOGL, T, AVB, BYND, CTB, EPD, LEG, L, NXPI, ON, QSR, SPOT, TXRH, TMUS, RIG, VNO, WBA, and WELL.

Action Plan

We had a nice weekend where there were no additional uncertainties, and in fact had a few resolutions. First, according to reports, some provisions of the Phase 1 trade agreement are coming together. The report was very thin on details but enough to move the market substantially toward record highs. The Yield curve that shook the market a few months ago is improving, and the FOMC is expected to lower the interest rate for the 3^rd time on Wednesday afternoon. GM reached an agreement with striking workers, and the ISIS leader Baghdadi met his end this weekend improving the US relationship with Syria.

US Futures, suggest a bullish open that may print all-time highs in the SPY at the QQQ, at the time of writing this report. Although the DIA is lagging behind, the bullish engulfing candle popping out of a consolidation rage on Friday suggests a break of the current downtrend is possible with the futures suggesting a gap up of about 70 points at the open. Of course with a big round of earnings reports, this morning and the International Trade in Goods report at 8:30 AM Eastern anything is possible. We have a very big week of economic data, so keep in mind price action could become very light and choppy as we wait.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

At the Highs, But With Fed/Earnings Ahead

October 28, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Overall, markets are giddy to be at or near the all-time highs again. However, there is also some fear from recent misses and uncertainty with the FOMC meeting just a couple of days ahead. Earnings and FOMC should be the lead stories with another heavy reporting list again this week and the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Monday, among the major names reporting before the Open are: T, CHKP, DTE, L, NLSN, and WBA. The major economic news is limited to Sept. Trade Balance and Sept. Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am).

Friday saw a rally with the QQQ closing at all-time highs and the SPY testing all-time high resistance. The DIA and IWM both printed a Bullish Engulfing Signals, with the DAI bouncing up off the recent support level again and the IWM testing its resistance again as well.

The EU has decided on giving the UK a 3-month extension, (France folded from its support of Boris Johnson where they were pushing for an extension of only a few days.) However, as a middle-ground, Brexit can happen before January 31…if the UK can get their act together to be ready early.

Overnight, Asian and European markets were green and European markets are mixed, but mostly green. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures were indicating a gap up of 0.3% in the SPY, 0.5% in the QQQ and the DIA lagging with a gap-up of 0.2%.

Bulls are thrilled to be at the highs again. However, with many more earnings and the FOMC still ahead of us, don’t be surprised by lighter volumes and we see a slow market Monday. Be cautious, and remember to take profits along the way.

Trade ideas for your consideration. Long – KSS, HOME, PM, CNC, PNC, TSM, JBHT, AFL, COG, BERY, SNBR, JEC, JWN. Short – CINF, GD, KO, NOC. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your trade. Also, do not forget to check for upcoming earnings. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.