EU Deal and KO Beat Lead News

Markets opened flat Monday and after a few minutes of pullback, the bulls stepped in and rallied all day long.  The big tech stocks led the way as TSLA was up 9.47% and AMZN was up 7.93%.  Initial vaccine test news out of the UK also led to optimism.  The DIA was the outlier, printing another indecisive Doji.  However, QQQ and SPY both printed strong Bullish candles coming off last week’s consolidation.  At the close, SPY was up 0.81%, DIA was up 0.03%, and QQQ was up 2.84% (a new all-time high close).  The VXX fell back below 30 to 29.23 and T2122 fell out of overbought territory to 70.18.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.613% and Oil (WTI) was flat, closing at $40.69/barrel.

The EU finally reached a deal on a recovery plan last night.  The $860 billion plan includes 52% of the money distributed as grants to the 27 member countries and the remaining 48% will be given out as loans.  They will fund the plan through EU-backed bonds that will stop being printed in 2026 and will be paid off by 2058.  They also announced that they will need additional taxes to repay those bonds. The new taxes will include a carbon tax and a non-recyclable waste tax.  Quite a contrast to US governance.

Several businesses announced layoffs or buyouts.  Among them are LinkedIn, who will cut 6% of their workforce.  LUV also announced that 17,000 employees had volunteered for early retirement or contract buyouts.

In the US, the virus numbers show we have 3,961,805 confirmed cases and 143,864 deaths.  The good news is that daily new cases fell below 63,000 Monday for the first time in over a week.  The bad news is that deaths ticked up on the day, but still below the 7-day average.  So far, only 28 states have listened to experts and instituted state-wide mask mandates.  However, several others have partial mandates or municipal-level mask orders in place. The rest can’t bear the idea of government mandates, even if they believe wearing a mask is in the public good. (I’m unsure whether the freer states also have looser laws on public nudity or driving without a seatbelt. lol) However, for traders the impactful issue is that in the absence of mandates it becomes retailers and restaurants that must enforce a mask rule and that will continue to generate bad press or at least hurt feelings among some former/potential customers.

Globally, the number of cases has reached 14,881,625 confirmed cases and 613,996 deaths.  In Spain, a new outbreak has occurred in a traditional summer holiday region (including Barcelona).  No new lockdown has been ordered, but the public has been “urged to stay home.”  Meanwhile, the UK reported a 4.5% drop in real wages for Q2.  This was the largest drop since the 1970s oil crisis according to a report from Resolution Foundation in London.  Real Wages or Standard of Living is a measure of disposable income and the drop considers lost wages as well as price inflation.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  The strongest showing was made in Hong Kong and Australia, but the rally was broad-based.  The same is true in Europe, where the recovery plan deal (after 5 days of heated negotiation) lifted market expectations.  In the US, as of 7:45am futures are pointing to a gap higher of 0.7%-0.9% on Monday evening’s IBM beat and Tuesday Morning’s KO beat. 

There is no major economic news for Tuesday.  The major earnings reports on the day include CIT, CMA, GPK, KO, LMT, MUSA, NVS, PCAR, PLD, PM, SNV, SYF, and UBS all before the open.  Then after the close AGR, AMTD, COF, CNI, CSL, IBKR, ISRG, NAVI, SUM, TER, TXN, UAL, and WRB all report.

Monday’s rally has bulls off and running this week.  However, it is possible we drift until a deal is reached on the next US stimulus (recovery) bill being negotiated this week. Keep an eye on those FAANG stocks that have been the market’s “canary in the coalmine.”  They clearly signaled yesterday’s rally and it would be very hard for the market to fight them if they all go one direction.  Remain focused on short-term charts and don’t chase, don’t predict, and always take profits as you go.  Remember we are in earnings season now, so some surprises are likely to happen…plus usually every initial reaction is met with an “on second thought” re-reaction.  So be nimble.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: MS, NIO, FVRR, ROKU, PINS, KR, SNAP, ETSY, UBER, MU. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Economic Uncertainty

Economic Uncertainty

As we begin a new week, an economic uncertainty continues to grow as the fast-spreading virus threatens shutdowns and fills hospitals ICU units to capacity.  However, the market seems relatively undeterred with visions of enormous government stimulus spending hopes on the horizon in Europe and the United States.  The big question yet to be answered is, can we deficit spend enough to cover the business impacts of the pandemic?  With a light economic calendar, a busy earnings calendar, and pandemic uncertainty rising expect price action to remain volatile and challenging.

Asian markets closed the overnight mixed but mostly higher as the SHANGHAI rallied more than 3%.  European markets trade mixed with EU leaders deadlocked on a massive stimulus coronavirus recovery fund.  US futures have rallied off overnight lows ahead of earnings reports indicating a flat to slightly bearish open with NASDAQ futures bank in the green.  Buckle-up and stay focused and flexible.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Monday earnings calendar, we have 22 companies reporting quarterly results.  Notable reports include PEP, HAL, MAN, PETS, CCK, IBM, LOGI & STLD.

News and Technical’s

Concern is rising as US infection rates top 3.7 million with a death toll moving over 140,000 this weekend.  Florida has reported more than 10,000 new infections in the last 5-days as space in ICU units in several hot spot states are reportedly at capacity.  As the healthcare system strains to keep up, the market seems transfixed on hopes of massive government stimulus in the pipeline in Europe and the United States.  I guess the question yet to be answered is, can the government actually buy our way out of this pandemic without a massive debt crisis as the after effect?  I guess only time will tell.  I think one of the most honest answers I’ve heard came from Jamie Dimon’s warning for the US economy this weekend, “nobody knows what comes next.” 

Technically the indexes continue in bullish trends even with the palpable uncertainty that lies ahead.  This week we have a relatively light economic calendar, but traders will have to navigate a minefield of earnings reports the could create some significant price volatility.  Futures opened on a positive note last night but quickly slipped negative, suggesting that Florida may have to shut down once again.  However, in the normal fashion of late, the morning pump has rallied the futures well of the lows currently indicating a flat to everso slight bearish open as we wait on morning earnings.  Stay flexible with an ear to the news that could quickly create reversals both up and down.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Virus News, Stimulus and Earnings on Tap

Markets gave us the epitome of “the summer blahs” Friday, essentially treading water in an indecisive day of trading.  The SPY and QQQ gave us small gaps higher and the DIA a small gap lower at the open.  The SPY and QQQ then printed Doji candles while the DIA printed a small Bearish Engulfing of a Doji.  At the close, SPY was up 0.29%, DIA down 0.27%, and QQQ up 0.12%.  The VXX fell to 30.62 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) fell a bit to 94.00, which is still deep into the over-bought territory. 10-year bond yield rose slightly to 0.623% and Oil (WTI) closed down a tad to $40.57/barrel.

Treasury Sec. Mnuchin told Congress Friday they should forgive all small business PPP loans (regardless how the money was used), though he did acknowledge some measure of fraud prevention would be needed.  He didn’t specify how he defines “small business” and as of his testimony, there were still over $132 billion of PPP funds approved that had not been requested.  Nonetheless, Mnuchin also recommended a second round of PPP loans (companies allowed to take a second loan).  In separate testimony, former Fed Chair Yellen told Congress she is extremely worried that if extended unemployment was not renewed, it could be a catastrophe for the economy.  Sunday White House Chief of Staff Meadows said that real negotiation of the next virus stimulus bill will begin Monday.

After the close Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Q2 saw the greatest jump in average weekly earnings in the country’s history (a 10% increase in one quarter).  While this seems like good news, experts say it is actually misleading.  They say this was bad news, because it reflects that high salary workers were being retained while a much larger percentage of the hourly workforce and low-level salaried employees were let go.  It’s unclear to me how this is different than any other point in time as the supposed high-value employees are always first hired, last fired while by definition the lower-cost workers are often an after-thought to businesses.  So, I don’t know if I agree with analysts. You decide.

In the US, the virus numbers show we have 3,898,639 confirmed cases and 143,289 deaths.  The 7-day average of new cases is almost 68,000 and the 7-day average of virus deaths is just under 800 as of Sunday.  And while 38 states have 7-day average new cases that increased by at least 10% week-on-week during most of last week, as of Sunday we are down to 32 rising at least that much, with 10 states now neither rising nor falling by at least 10% and 2 states are down more than 10%.  Also, so far at least, hospitalizations have not yet exceeded the April peak.  The only caveat with that good news is that hospitalizations tend to lag infections by 3 weeks and deaths tend to lag another 1-2 weeks. 

Globally, the number of cases has reached 14,668,298 confirmed cases and 609,511 deaths. The UK reported that their economy recovered much less than was expected in May as their easing got underway.  The UK GDP grew 1.8% for the month versus a consensus expectation of 5.5% growth.  In China, supply chain issues (such as filling orders for PPE gear) are being caused by massive flooding across their nation.  The flooding has exacerbated already jammed transportation infrastructure (such as ports) that have yet to recover from the backlogs caused by Feb.-Mar. shutdowns.  In the EU, 3 days of negotiation over a stimulus package details and a 5-year budget have yet to produce a deal. In fact, negotiations are heated with multiple “table pounding” arguments reported. (That makes an interesting dichotomy with the US. The supposedly socialist Europeans are fighting tooth-and-nail over taxing and spending $850 billion (with a population of 450 million people), while the supposedly capitalist US has had no trouble at all spending trillions and trillions of dollars (so far) with 330 million people.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, with China up strongly, India up modestly, Japan and South Korea flat and the rest of the region in the red.  Europe is also mixed, but leans toward the green and is also little-moved so far.  The FTSE is down 0.54%, DAX up 0.31%, and CAC down 0.21% at mid-day. The rest of the continent is mixed, but leaning green.  In the US, as of 7:30am futures are flat, just on either side of break-even. 

There is no major economic news for Monday.  The major earnings reports on the day include CALM, HAL, LII, and MAN before the open as well as CCK, CDNS, IBM, LOGI, STLD, and ZION after the close.

Friday’s candles were indecisive for the third day in a row with neither the bulls nor the bears gaining traction.  Expect more volatility as virus news helps the bears, vaccine hope/speculation helps the bulls, and stimulus negotiations could go either way.  Keep an eye on those FAANG stocks that have been the market’s “canary in the coalmine.”   Remain focused on short-term charts and don’t chase, don’t predict, and always take profits as you go.  Remember we are in earnings season now, so some surprises are likely to happen…plus usually every initial reaction is met with an “on second thought” re-reaction.  So be nimble.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: CSCO, HD, GLD, AZN, OSTK, GPN, INTC, SLV, IAG. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Grinding Day

Grinding Day

Yesterday a slow and grinding day of price action with a little profit-taking after a mixed bag of earnings reports and higher than expected jobless numbers.  That said, the indexes suffered little to no technical damage with the bulls fighting hard to defend against any attempt by the bears to start a selloff.  The tech sector may experience some pressure today after NFLX disappointed investors after the bell yesterday.  Infection numbers continue to set new records, but the market is unconcerned as they wait for the next round of stimulus spending.

Asian markets closed the trading week mixed but mostly higher amidst rising US-China tensions.  European markets trade mixed this morning with an ever so slight advantage to the bulls.  Here in the US, after smashing the new infection record and disappointing NFLX report, futures point to modestly bullish open ahead of earnings and economic data.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Friday Earnings Calendar, we have 28 companies fessing up to their quarterly results.  Notable reports include ALLY, BLK, CFG, KSU, FR, & STT.

News and Technical’s

Indexes found a few profit-takers yesterday after a mixed bag of earnings reports and Jobless Claims numbers higher than expected.  The market was also dealing with a new record high in pandemic infections, but just one day later, that record was smashed with the number topping 77,000 yesterday.  According to reports, the next congressional stimulus bill will cost 1.3 Trillion as written with several elected officials suggesting it needs to be substantially more.  Netflix reported a miss after the bell yesterday with and expectation that subscribers will decline in the coming quarter.  Share of Netflix fell as much as 10% in extended trading, which may add some pressure today on the high flying tech sector.  This morning analysts expect a significant increase in housing starts as the 30-year mortgage fell briefly below 3% for the first time in history yesterday.  We will also get a reading on Consumer Sentiment as well as several notable earnings reports that could move the market.

Yesterday mild round of profit-taking made for a slow grinding day of price action but little to no technical damage to the index charts.  The tech sector has seen a bit of weakness this week, and it will be interesting to see if the miss from Netflix yesterday will continue that pressure today.  There has been a notable increase in the consumer defensive and consumer staples stocks in the last few days.  It would seem we are witnessing a rotation into better value dividend-paying issues as the interest in the high flying tech sector wains.  There may be some concern that some of the current market leaders will have a difficult time supporting these high prices in their upcoming earnings reports.  As we approach the weekend, consider carefully consider the risk as the pandemic infections surge and an uncertain earnings season ramps up to a fevered pitch.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Virus and Tech News Top the Agenda

Markets gapped down Thursday, maybe on virus fears, US-China worries or less than expected reduction in new jobless claims.  After the gap, prices took a rollercoaster ride that ended up not far from where they opened.  This gave us white-body candles that had faded the gap down but also had longer wicks (especially the DIA and QQQ), indicating a lot of indecision.  There was also the beginnings of a rotation out of the massive tech names that have led for months with cyclical and staples names leading for the second straight day.  The SPY closed down 0.31%, DIA down 0.51%, and QQQ down 0.68%.  VXX also fell a bit to 31.72 and the T2122 4-week High/Low Ratio eased just a bit (but stayed deep in the overbought territory) to 94.97.  10-year bond yields also fell to 0.617% and Oil (WTI) pulled back slightly to $40.73/barrel.

After-hours the CDC extended the ban on cruises.  The ban was scheduled to expire July 24 but has now been extended at least through September.  NCLH, RCL, and CCL stock were hammered in post-market trading on the news.

The European Court of Justice canceled a US-EU data-sharing deal Thursday over fears that the US government will snoop on personal data.  This means that either the US changes their data surveillance laws or US businesses will be forced to change their business operations and costs.  For example, both tech giants and 2300 small businesses will now have to prevent all European data from flowing onto servers or networks located in the US.  This would include communications on FB, TWTR, and GOOG.  MSFT announced they would not be affected because they already use EU-written contracts guaranteeing privacy rather than contracts based on the US-EU Privacy Shield agreement which was annulled.

In a follow-on to the US-China relations story, Attorney Gen. Barr accused American tech giants of being pawns for China.  In another example of “everyone’s out to get us,” his list of alleged conspirators against America included GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, CSCO, DIS, all of Hollywood, and the media.  No sanctions or even threats of sanction was announced.  However, the implication was that they have an investigative target on their back for their supposed transgressions.  On another front, the US announced a travel ban for all Chinese Communist Party members and their families.

In the US, the virus numbers show we have 3,696,141 confirmed cases and 141,130 deaths.  This includes 73,000 new cases nationally on the day.  More states also joined the mask mandate bandwagon including AR, CO, and OH (partially). However, GA Governor Kemp decided to go the other way, by voiding all local mask mandates in his state and suing the Mayor of Atlanta for her mask mandate.  At the same time, GA reported almost 3,500 new cases, which was trumped only by CA (4,600), TX (7,500), and FL (almost 14,000) new cases.  Both TX and FL also recorded another record number of virus deaths Thursday. 

Globally, the number of cases has reached 13,979,223 confirmed cases and 593,450 deaths.  Brazil reported over 44,000 new cases and the largest number of deaths in a single day that they have had.  India reported 36,000 new cases, also their largest daily total.  In Europe, Spain reported the highest number of new cases since May 10th so they have retightened some restrictions.  They are also slaughtering some 100,000 minks after dozens tested positive for Covid-19.  In the UK, PM Johnson announced further easing as well as an additional $4 billion for their NHS in preparation for a second wave of infections.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly modestly green. In Europe, markets are also mixed and not far from break-even on either side.  This is seen as largely due to the EU leaders meeting to negotiate on a stimulus measures, with some leaders saying they think there is less than a 50% chance of agreement on a plan.  In the US, as of 7:30am futures are varied, but on the green side.  The SPY and DIA are looking at modestly higher opens,  However, the QQQ is pointing toward a gap-up of almost 1%.

The major economic news for Friday includes June Building Permits and June Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  The major earnings reports on the day include ALLY, ALV, BLK, CFG, ERIC, HON, KSU, RF, STT, and VFC all before the open.

Thursday’s candles were indecisive if a bit on the red side of flat.  It remains unclear whether the bulls or bears have the momentum coming out of yesterday’s session.  Expect more volatility today and keep watching those FAANG stocks that are a good “canary in the coalmine” for the markets.  Remain focused on short-term charts and don’t chase, don’t predict, and always take profits as you go.  Remember we are in earnings season now, so some surprises are likely to happen…plus usually every initial reaction is met with a “on second thought” re-reaction.  Also, don’t forget today is Friday.  So don’t forget to take a paycheck in front of the weekend news cycle.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: BUD, VALE, HD, ABBV, KSS, JNJ, NVAX, AMGN, AZN. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Big Day of Data

Big Day of Data

Facing a big day of earnings and economic data while digesting more new records in daily infections and deaths, the US Futures point to the gap down open.  While it was nice to see some follow-through bullishness yesterday, the elevated VIX continues to show the market uncertainty and adds significant complexity for traders as they try to navigate the wild price swings.  Today is likely to be no different with gaps and intraday reversals as the market attempts to digest all the data.

Asian markets close the day seeing only red across the board as the tensions between the US and China rise.  European markets are also trading lower this morning as virus concerns weigh heavily on investors.  US Futures point to a lower open this morning, reacting to early earnings data and rising pandemic impacts.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have 37 companies reporting their quarterly results.  Notable reports include JNJ, NFLX, ABT, BAC, SCHW, DPZ, JBHT, MS, PPG, TSM, & TFC.

News and Technical’s

With daily reversals and big point moves as this morning begins, it looks like the market is shaping up to give us more of the same.  Sadly we seem to be losing the battle on the virus front hit a new national record of daily infections as well as a new daily record death toll.  Several state now requiring the wearing of masks in public while some profoundly affected states want to soldier on without additional measures.  The pandemic is putting a strain on the healthcare system in several states filling their hospitals to near capacity.  Today we will get earnings reports BAC and MS and NFLX.  Although very early in the season, the results have been a mixed bag.  We also have our biggest day of the week on the economic calendar, which includes Jobless Claims and Retail Sales numbers as if there is not already a lot for the market to digest. 

Yesterday’s big gap up was an excellent follow-through to Tuesday’s rally but ended the day rather unconfidently.  The DIA tested the resistance of the Island Reversal pattern established in early June, but the bears held their ground by the close.  The SPY easily broke above its island reversal pattern holding it solidly into the close while the QQQ struggled with a lackluster performance with several of the big tech giants finding some profit-takers.  IWM benefited from the rally in the financials after the GS earnings report finally breaking above and holding its 200-day moving average by the close.  With a big day of data, the US Futures currently point to a gap down open.  The VIX, although pulling back yesterday, continues to hold above its 200-day average holding on to an elevated close above 27 handles.  With so much data coming our way, anything is possible, so plan carefully and remain flexible.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Earnings and Virus Continue to Lead

Markets gapped higher, giddy about a recycled MRNA story after the close the prior night and a big GS beat in pre-market.  However, after the gap, markets soon found resistance and traded in a choppy range the rest of the day.  We ended up with indecisive black-body candles in all the major indices, but also green from the gap-up.  The SPY closed up 0.92%, DAI up 0.87%, and QQQ up 0.20% as the big tech names were mixed at best.  VXX fell to 32.26 and T2122 rose deep into overbought territory at 98.18.  10-year bond yields rose slightly to 0.632% and Oil (WTI) climbed to $40.99/barrel.

After the close and following in the footsteps of UAL, AAL warned 25,000 employees that job cuts are coming.  (Federal law requires them to give 60-days’ notice.)  TWTR also reported a major set of account hacks.  The TWTR accounts of Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Elon Musk, AAPL, UBER and many others were used to send scam messages offering to double every bitcoin donation made within 30 minutes.  It is unclear exactly how much money was lost to the scam, but law enforcement sources told Bloomberg that over $100,000 is known lost.

The US-China relationship story remains fairly muddled as China is distracted with major flooding nationwide and the US is sending mixed signals from our side. Sec. of State Pompeo tried his tough-guy routine Wednesday saying that “China will be made to pay a price” (related to the attempt to blame China for the pandemic).  However, President Trump played the dove during the day by deciding not to sanction Chinese officials for now.  This all comes a day after his campaign speech that mentioned signing legislations giving him more power to sanction Chinese officials and also removing Hong Kong’s special trade status.  China has vowed retaliation (tit-for-tat sanctions) for the latter two moves (and the sanctioning of Chinese business leaders) as “US interference in China’s internal Hong Kong affairs.”  Speaking of China, their GDP beat expectations coming in at 3.2% for Q2, but Retail Sales fell again by 1.8% for June. 

In the US, the virus numbers show we have 3,618,739 confirmed cases and 140,172 deaths. Retailers WMT, KSS, TGT, BBY and KR all announced a mask mandate for all shoppers, giving up their wait for a federal rule.  A couple more states joined that chorus as well, including AL and MT.  Overall, the country reported over 66,000 cases again on the day, with FL reporting over 10,000, TX reported over 8,000 and CA over 7,000 new cases on Wednesday.  In a sign of the situation, the state of TX asked FEMA to send 22 additional (3 are already in place) refrigerated morgue trucks to various Texas locations, each capable of holding 20 bodies at a time. The state also opened up a couple of convention centers as temporary virus hospitals.

Globally, the number of cases has reached 13,727,380 confirmed cases and 587,662 deaths.  China announced it will open some cinemas as of July 20 in order to spur retail sales.  India reported the highest daily jump in new cases for the second day in a row. 

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly red across the board (with the exception of India).  China was hit particularly hard as Hong Kong was down 2%, Shanghai was down 4.5%, and Shenzhen down 5%.  There was no specific cause for the Chinese selloff other than US-China relations, massive flooding, and lower than expected Retail Sales.  In Europe, markets are also down, but more modestly red than Asia with a couple minor green break-even exceptions.  In the US, as of 7:30am futures are looking for a gap-down at the open, but are wide-ranging.  DIA futures are down 0.6%, SPY futures down 0.62%, but QQQ futures are down 1.36% as of now.  This all comes as the big banks continue to report blow-out trading profits and unprecedented set-asides for expected bad-loan losses.

The major economic news for Thursday includes June Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, July Philly Fed Employment Index (all at 8:30 am), May Business Inventories (10 am), and a Fed Speaker (Williams at 11 am).  Major earnings reports on the day include ABT, BAC, DHR, DPZ, JNJ, MS, SCHW, SON, TFC, TSM all before the open.  After the close, FNB, JBHT, MRTN, NFLX, PPG and WAL report.

Wednesday’s candles were much more indecisive that the earlier days this week.  It is unclear whether the bulls or bears won yesterday’s battle (at least after the gap-up).  Expect more volatility and keep watching those FAANG stocks that are a good “canary in the coalmine” for the markets.  Focus on short-term charts, but don’t chase, don’t predict, and take profits as you go.  Remember we are in earnings season now, so some surprises are likely to happen…plus usually every initial reaction is met with a “on second thought” re-reaction.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: OSTK, ROKU, IMMU, ADSK, WPM, AUY, GLD, PYPL, CRM, WDAY, TTOO. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Another Price Action Reversal

Another Price Action Reversal

Monday’s price action delivers bearish reversal patterns but fails to follow-though, so on Tuesday, the market is dealt another full price action reversal by the bulls.  The VIX continues to remain very elevated, and the Absolute Breadth Index continues to decline as infection rates rise in 39 states.  Interestingly so-called safe-haven issues in the consumer defensive sector had a very good day yesterday, and gold and silver values continue to climb.  Indeed an interesting dichotomy for traders to navigate.

Asian markets trade mixed but mostly higher overnight, with the NIKKEI closing up 1.59%.  European markets are in the full-on bullish mode this morning, reacting to the hopeful vaccine news.  US futures are leaping higher this morning on the same vaccine news and in reaction to the GS earnings.  At the moment, the Dow futures suggest a gap up open of nearly 450 points.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the hump day earings calendar, we have 27 companies reporting with our second round of big bank reports.  Notable reports include AA, BK, GS, INFY, PNC, SNBR, USB, & UNH.

News and Technical’s

The game is on with 3rd quarter earnings with JPM reporting declining earnings results but, they beat the analyst’s estimates, so the stocks rallied.  I suspect this will continue today as we progress through several significant bank reports this morning.  A strong late-day rally pushed the Dow up 556 points reversing Mondays bearish reversal pattern that failed to follow through.  Interestingly, Gold, Silver, and bonds rallied with the market as the Absolute Breadth Index continues to decline.  The VIX pulled back below its 50-day average but remained elevated, closing the day above 29 handles and suggesting the wild price volatility is far from over.  This morning futures point to a bullish follow-through in anticipation of earnings and a hopeful report from Moderna on a vaccine trial that produced a COVID-19 immune response. 

Thirty-nine states now report rising infection rates with more than 65,000 new cases reported yesterday with more than 900 deaths.  Adding to the tensions with China, the President yesterday signed a bill sanctioning them and ending Hong Kong’s preferential treatment status.  China has, of course, already vowed retaliation but, as of now, has given no details as to what that might entail.  Apple has won in EU courts, saying the company doesn’t have to pay nearly 15 billion in Irish taxes.  Texas approves tax breaks for Tesla if they build the proposed 1.1 billion car plant near Austin.  I suspect other states will soon join the bidding war for the construction.  With less than 4-months to the presidential election, Joe Biden seems to be gaining momentum according to the latest poll.  We can expect some market volatility as the race heats up, and the political rhetoric reaches a fevered pitch over the months ahead.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

MRNA Vaccine Hope Drives Futures

On Tuesday, markets saw a small gap down after a JPM earnings beat was offset by increased loan loss provisions.  However, after a negative open, the bulls were in control the rest of the day, closing near the highs.  Interestingly, it was cyclical stocks like CAT, CVX, XOM, and BA that led the way for the day.  DIA put in a Bullish Engulfing candle and the SPY printed a Bullish Piercing candle.  At the end of the day, DIA was up 2.13%, SPY up 1.30%, and QQQ up 0.71%.  VXX fell almost 6% to 33.20 and T2122 rose back closer to overbought territory at 73.33.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.628% and Oil (WTI) climbed back to $40.28/barrel.

After the close, MRNA reported that their potential vaccine produced “robust immune response” (antibodies) in all 45 subjects in their Phase 1 test. This is not a new test, but a clarification of the report on the same small trial that was first reported in May. The only additional news was a firm date of July 27 (had been in terms of “late July”) for the start of a 30,000 patient Phase 3 trial of the vaccine.  MRNA stock was up over 15% in after-hours trading on the report.  Travel stocks including both airlines and cruise lines also spiked after-hours on this news.

In the US, the virus numbers show we have 3,546,278 confirmed cases and 139,162 deaths. TX reported 10,745 new cases Tuesday.  In FL, Miami-Dade County is now reporting a 31% positive result rate on tests.  Meanwhile, the CDC said that if all Americans wore masks, we could have the virus under control in a month or two.  However, that is nowhere near the case in the US.  As a result, the US 7-day average of new cases is well over 62,000/day. 

Globally, the numbers have reached 13,487,894 confirmed cases and 581,978 deaths.  In news that is perhaps tangential to the MRNA report, a study published in the UK reported that a 90-patient study has found that immunity from antibodies only lasts two months before waning.  (That might mean the sale of many more doses of vaccine.)  Further East, India reported over 29,000 new cases yesterday in its biggest 1-day increase.  Closer to home, Mexico announced it is extending the border restrictions with the US until at least August (both countries restricted all non-essential crossings back in late March).  This comes as Mexico has now become the 4th worst-hit country (in the total number of deaths). 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, with Chinese indices down on reports of heavy increases in food prices, brought on by virus impacts and massive floods across their country.  In Europe, markets are much more broadly green with hopes for a vaccine lifting spirits.  The FTSE is up 1.78%, DAX up 1.96% and CAC up 2.35% at this point in their day.  In the US, as of 7:30 am futures continue their overnight run on the MRNA news.  DIA is up 1.67%, SPY up 1.34%, and QQQ up 0.96% at the moment.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes June Import / Exports and July NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am), June Industrial Production (9:15 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and a Fed Speaker (Harker at noon).  Major earnings reports include ASML, BK, EBAY, GS, INFY, OMC, PGR, PNC, UNH, and USB all before the open.  After the close, AA, and SNBR report.

Tuesday’s candles were quite bullish within the recent series of 1-day moves.  However, it looks like vaccine hopes will drive markets early today (rather than the recent pattern).  So, the consolidation may be coming to an end.  The bulls certainly look to be chasing the recovery trade (travel-related for example) overnight.  However, don’t get too giddy.  Keep an eye on those “canary in the coalmine” FAANG stocks.  They’re so big that they will call the tune for markets.  Watch those short-term charts and don’t chase, don’t predict, and take profits as you go.  Remember we are in earnings season now, so some surprises are likely to happen.

Ed

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: HD, MCD, GE, FTCH, JNJ, SPCE, KO, AMGN, BUD, ABBV, JPM, XLF. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

A Nasty Reversal

A Nasty Reversal

A sharp rally followed by a nasty reversal selloff leaving behind bearish candle patterns and more questions than answers heading into 3rd quarter earnings.   The VIX closed above a 32 handle showing a level of uncertainty not generally associated with new record highs.  I suspect the volatility will remain quite high, making the navigation through earnings season quite challenging even for very experienced traders.  Stay sharp and plan for just about anything in the days ahead.

Asian markets saw modest losses across the board even as their June trade data beat expectations.  European markets are trading lower this morning as concerns of the spiking pandemic infections weigh on investor sentiment.  US Futures again find the energy to pump up in the premarket trying to ignore yesterdays selling damage as earnings season begins.  Anything is possible, so stay focused and flexible.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Today we officially kick-off 3rd Quarter earnings with 14 companies fessing up to quarterly results.  Notable reports include JPM, AMX, C, DAL, FAST, & WFC.

News and Technical’s

I’m guessing yesterday turned out to be a bit painful after the significant index gains quickly reversed after the Governor of California announced a sweeping roll-backs due to a 28% increase in infections.  Two of the largest California school districts will not reopen favoring distance learning in an attempt to protect students and teachers from the virus.  I had mentioned the possibility of a pop and drop pattern, but the way this reversal played out was strickly the sensitivity of the market to the news.  Interestingly as the market rallied yesterday, the Absolute Breadth Index continued to decline.  However, as soon as the selling began, the Breadth Index rallied with the selloff.  I believe that a large portion of that problem is that just 5-companies now command a full 25% of the entire SP-500 weight.  An imbalance that could become a significant problem should profit-taking take hold in the five heavyweights.  Yesterday may have been a preview of what could happen if that should come to pass.

Technically speaking, the flash selloff yesterday adds a bit of complication to the look of all the index charts as we begin 3rd quarter earnings.  The DIA left behind a nasty shooting star pattern that once again failed the 200-day average.  It would appear ahead of earnings they bulls are pushing to test the 200 once again as resistance at the open.  The SPY left behind a bearish dark cloud cover pattern failing to hold the break of the early June island reversal pattern.  The NASDAQ was the first index to have reversed yesterday from a very extended run leaving behind a bearish engulfing pattern on the QQQ.  IWM finished the day with a dark cloud cover pattern, and the VIX ended the day printing a reversal that broke above its 50-day average closing above a 32 handle.  With the VIX so elevated and facing an uncertain earnings season traders should expect challenging price volatility.  Stay focused, and flexible as anything is possible in the days ahead.

Trade Wisely,

Doug