CPI and FOMC Speakers Today

The week started with a small gap lower, but the bulls stepped in quickly to lead a slow and steady recovery to the highs by mid-afternoon.  However, the last 2 hours were a bit of a roller coaster ride that ended the day near where we closed Friday.  That said, the tech names helped the NASDAQ outperform Monday.  On the day the SPY was up 0.06%, the DIA down 0.44%, and the QQQ up 0.89%.  VXX fell more than expected to 32.70 and the T2122 also fell sharply to 72.11, once again outside of the overbought area.  The 10-year bond yield rose to 0.71% while Oil (WTI) was flat at $24.73/barrel.

In relief/political news, it was announced Monday that there is now a Republican co-sponsor and 2-3 Republican Senators “almost willing” to support a bill sending $500 billion in money to state and local governments.  Meanwhile, on the House side, they have pushed off any vote for another relief bill until at least Friday (perhaps waiting on the Senate).  Finally, Dr. Fauci (NIH) will be testifying to the Senate as Congress begins their oversight hearings of virus and relief programs. On top of that, the Fed will also start its corporate bond-buying program today by buying specific ETFs (that hold bonds downgraded during virus).  There was no word on which ETFs they will buy.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 4,274,648 confirmed cases and 287,670 deaths.  In Asia, the uptick continues with clusters of new cases found in China (including Wuhan), South Korea, Japan, and Singapore.  The good news there is that the clusters are small-enough and testing/tracing capability large enough in those places that the “uptick” at least has the strong potential to be stopped before it becomes widespread.

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In the US, we have 1,385,893 confirmed cases and 81,796 deaths.  New York state announced that 3 of its rural regions are ready to open on Friday.  In the oil patch, pipeline company ETP said about 25% of US shale fields that had been shut down have now been turned back on at least in the Permian Basin. Meanwhile, in CA, TSLA reopened its Fremont plant in spite of County Health Department orders.  The Governor of CA said he was unaware but will look into the matter, but city and county law enforcement did not intervene.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly red for Tuesday.  Again, this was mostly on small moves (closer to flat), with the exceptions of Hong Kong and Australia, which were both down over a percent.  In Europe, markets are mixed so far, but on the green side, with only the FTSE (+0.96%) near a 1% move.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are on the green side of flat, now pointing to a 0.20% gap higher at the open. 

The major economic news for Tuesday includes Apr. CPI (8:30 am), FOMC Speakers (Harker and Quarles both at 10 am), 10-yr Bond Auction (1 pm), Apr. Budget Bal (2 pm), and FOMC Speaker (Mester at 5 pm).  However, among major companies, AGN, DUK, HMC, IR, MAC, and VSH also all report before the open.

The bulls still have control of the momentum.  However, resistance is close overhead and it seems like markets are showing some caution, perhaps due to fear about the speed or strength of the reopening.  Keep in mind that we are seeing volatility every day, with a lot of gaps and reversal action.  So, focus on the short-term chart in front of you.  Don’t chase and remain cautious about longer-term swing trades, unless you can take some short-term pain.  However, the trend is clearly bullish.

Ed

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today: MGNX, LXRX, MYGN, BECN, TLRY, JAZZ, FRPT, DISH, MUR, AMLP. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Technically Difficulties

Good morning everyone.  Due to a Windows Update there will be no written blog this morning however if you follow the link below I will have a link to the late Morning Market Prep Video.  Sorry for the inconvenience but it was out of my control.

Futures Jittery Before New Week

The bulls ran hard on Friday, gapping up over a percent and then, after brief “fade the gap” profit-taking, ran steadily all day.  The “reopen stocks” such as MGM, DIS, and airlines like DAL and AAL led the way.  Prices also closed very near the highs.  On the day the SPY gained 1.65%, the DIA gained 1.97%, and the QQQ gained 1.37%.  The VXX was down briskly to 34.95 while the 4-week High Low Ratio T2122 spiked up into overbought territory again at 91.02.  The 10-year bond yield was up to 0.685% and Oil (WTI) also gained to $24.63/barrel.

As expected, the April jobs number showed heavy job losses (-20.5 million) to raise the unemployment rate to 14.7%. However, this is less than half of the 30% predictions of some unhappy with a shutdown had predicted.  Even if the worse lies ahead, at the very least, the market now seems to have moved well past concern for the economy as all the major indices are up 35% off the lows at the end of March (and QQQ is within 5.5% of all-time highs again). 

For their part, the Fed is comfortable enough with the economic situation (or at least the market) that they will reduce bond-buying to $7 billion per day this week.  Yet, at the same time, on Sunday Fed voter Kashkari said the true unemployment rate is 23-24%.  He said while the Fed will do everything it can, but he still urged the fiscal side (Congress and President) to do more to help the public as he expects a gradual (not rapid) recovery.  Treasury Sec. Mnuchin seemed to agree, saying unemployment is likely higher than reported Friday and he expects things to get worse before they get better.

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However, President Trump and Republicans seem to disagree. Both say now that businesses have the stimulus needed (to survive), they are in no hurry to do additional relief.  The idea is that financial hardship for individuals might help force the high unemployment numbers back down.  In addition, by rejecting CDC guidelines the administration has already removed potential roadblocks to rapid rehiring (at the risk of potential relapse).  Of course, this may just be posturing ahead of more negotiations with Democrats. The Republicans want more tax cuts and the Democrats want both more relief (for State/local governments and another round of payments for the public) as well as an infrastructure bill.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 4,200,957 confirmed cases and 284,150 deaths.  In Asian, South Korea reported a new outbreak (nightclub related) and Japan also saw a cluster of cases in Tokyo. However, the good news continues in Western Europe with steady declines in new case rates in most countries.  The outliers are the UK (just now plateauing as the last European country to lock-down), and Russia (which is still in epidemic mode, seeing a new record high number of cases each day).  However, the UK did begin its reopening by “actively encouraging” people to return to work (while also avoiding public transport) as of today. Likewise, France also began its reopening on Monday.

In the US, we have 1,367,963 confirmed cases and 80,787 deaths. The impact of reopening remains unclear at this point. Some states that have at least partially reopened, such as CA, TX, OH, CO, and NC are seeing significant increases in new case rates again.  However, other states doing the same, such as FL and GA, are not seeing increases.  It’s unknown if this anomaly is due to differences in testing or some other variable. On the other hand, there is no hard data yet, but there have been significant anecdotal reports that both public participation in reopening and adherence to guidelines is sporadic nationwide.  So, we have not seen the hoped-for economic impact, nor have we seen a universal strong increase in spread either.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on Monday, but with smaller moves.  The exceptions were Japan (+1.05%) and Hong Kong (+1.53%).  In Europe, markets are decidedly in the red so far today.  However, like Asia, more European moves have been smaller as of now, with the exception of France (-1.41%).  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a half of a percent gap lower at the open.   

There is no major economic news for Monday.   However, AEE, AN, CAH, COTY, ET, ETR, MAR, MGLN, MYL, ON, UA, UAA, UNVR, and ZBH all before the open.

The bulls remained in rally mode last week.  However, resistance is close overhead.  Remember that volatility is a constant now for traders, with a lot of “gap and fade” action.  So, focus on the short-term chart in front of us.  Remain cautious about longer-term swing trades, unless you can take some short-term pain. 

Ed

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today: GPOR, QRTEA, ITCI, AQST, SHAK, VLO, CRUS, X, LOPE, ARNA, TWTR, BSX. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tenacious Bulls

Tenacious Bulls

The tenacious bulls push indexes higher even as unemployment soars to 33 million.  The NASDAQ recovers all of the 2020 losses with as APPL, AMZN, GOOG & GOOGL do the majority of the heavy lifting even as the Absolute Breadth Index remains in a downtrend.  It would seem in light of unprecedented government spending the idea of working and company production is an outdated concept easily replaced by mountains of debt.  Will the historic Employment Situation number matter?  We will see in a couple of hours.

Asian markets rallied to end the week with Japan up more than 2%.  European markets are bullish across the board this morning, and US Futures continue to power higher this morning ahead of job numbers and earnings.  As we head into the weekend, don’t be too surprised if some profit-takers take advantage of the gap up, reducing risk.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The Friday earnings calendar indicates about 150 companies will step up and report.  Notable reports include BLMN, EXC, TWNK, KIM, NBL, PPL, SEAS, SWCH, & VTR.

Technically Speaking

More bullishness yesterday as the indexes rose more than 1% as the NASDAQ recovers all of 2020 losses even as the country deals with 33 million unemployed.  Today the Employment Situation number is expected to report the worst jobs report in the countries history, but somehow that does not seem to matter.  How can this be?  I believe it is all in the weighting of the averages.  MSFT, AMZN, GOOG & GOOGL account for nearly 20% of the SP-500.  So is the SP-500 reflective of the actual market condition?  With the Absolute Breadth Index still showing a downtrend, one might have to answer that question with a no.  Combine that with trillions of dollar’s flooding in from government stimulus where debt no longer matters and an extremely accommodative central bank the SP-500 reflecting the actual market condition is all but impossible.

Technically the DIA, SPY, and IWM remain bullish but locked in a tightening consolidation pattern with the tech-heavy QQQ enjoys the majority of the benefits of the big-4 titans continue to rally.  I get asked the question nearly every day. How long can this continue?  My answer is always the same.  Stay focused on the price and trade the chart.  The trend is the trend until the trend breaks, and right now, it seems the bulls have an unquenchable desire for risk no matter the state of the economy.  That said, please remember that gap up opens near index highs, and price resistance levels have the potential to find profit-takers creating a pop and drop pattern.  As of now, US futures indicate a strong gap up open in total defiance of unemployment that may well continue through the end of the day.  However, don’t rule out the possibility that profit-takers could take advantage of the gap closing trades and avoiding the weekend risk.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bulls Not Worried Pre-Payrolls

Another gap higher Thursday was met with a roller coaster that ended up selling back down in to the gap.  This gave us high-wick indecisive candles.  The SPY closed up 1.21%, the DIA up 0.87%, and the QQQ up 1.29%.  VXX was down correspondingly to 37.47 while T2122 remains in the mid-range at 64.84.  The 10-year bond yield was up to close at 0.643% and Oil (WTI) held ground, closing at $23.79/barrel.

Like watching a car wreck that’s about to happen, markets have seemed to be waiting on this morning’s jobs report.  At the same time, we know it’s going to be terrible and the bulls have long ago decided that the worst is past us. 

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,936,270 confirmed cases and 271,180 deaths.  Opening continues to be the lead story around the world in spite of concerning signs like a 6th straight day of record-high cases in Russia, a record death toll in Mexico, a death toll uptick in Spain, and new outbreaks in places like South Korean nightclubs.  Among the openings were school openings in France and Norway, travel restriction easing in Hong Kong, Indonesia and Singapore. 

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In the US, we have 1,292,879 confirmed cases and 76, 429 deaths.  The important US virus-related news seems to be public’s less than stellar adherence to guidelines (or even of showing civility). Several incidents of shootings and physical attacks on people trying to enforce guidelines have made news and there has been a mass disregard for distancing or mask usage in many parts of the country.  This comes as more crowded venues (like factories, malls, etc.) open every day.  This just points to how hard it will be to control spread or lock down again if needed to contain the spread.

Overnight, Asian markets were all in the green. In Europe, the same is true with the exception of Russia so far today.  As of 7:45 am, US futures are pointing to a one percent gap higher at the open as traders seems to be expecting no bad shock from the jobs number. 

The major economic news for Friday includes Apr Avg. Hourly Earnings, Apr Nonfarm Payrolls, Apr Participation Rate, and Apr Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am).  The earnings are limited to ATH, AXL, BLMN, BR, EXC, GLP, IEP, KIM, LEA, NBL, PBF, PNW, PPL, SABR, TEN, VTR, and XRAY all before the open.

The bulls seem to have decided the worst is behind us.  However, they are running low on follow-through steam lately.  Fortunately for them, the bears have no energy either.  The payroll report and more importantly market reaction will call the tune today.  Just remember that volatility remains a constant companion for traders.  So, all we can do is focus on the short-term chart in front of us.  Remain cautious about longer-term swing trades, unless you can take some short-term pain. Finally, remember it’s payday..take profits where and when you can.   

Ed

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today: no trade ideas for Friday. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Jobless Claims

Jobless Claims

Yesterday the bulls and bears battled it out in a choppy cage match that seemed to show some concern for the Jobless Claims numbers.  However, looking at the morning futures seems to indicate, we don’t care about unemployment.  I must admit the ability of the market to ignore history-making unemployment is not only fascinating but also quite troubling.  That said, the bulls remain in control, and index trends remain bullish as we head into 2-days of ugly job numbers.  Plan your risk carefully.

Asian markets closed mixed, but little changes as China reported that exports unexpectedly rose.  European markets are bullish this morning as BOE holds rates steady and US future point to a substantial gap up ahead of a gigantic day of earnings and jobless claims expected to add more than 3 million more unemployed.

Earnings Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have a gigantic day with more than 750 companies reporting.  Notable reports include ADT, AL, AMC, BUD, BALL, BIDU, BHC, BDX, BMY, ED, CTB, CUBE, DENN, DBX, IT, HL, HLF, HES, HLT, HFC, HST, IRM, JBLU, KTB, LYV, MAIN, MUR, NCLH, DOC, PFPT, RTX, ROKU, SKYW, STMP, SRCL, SPWR, SVMK, SYNA, TCO, TLRY, UBER, YELP, VIAC, & YETI.

Technically Speaking

After a day of very choppy price action that ultimately drifted south by the close now indicates a substantial gap up at the open.  In a story on CNBC, Morgan Stanley warns that the rally fueled by investor fear of missing out is not a good sign for the market.  I agree with that thinking and have said virtually the same thing over the last few weeks.  However, me agreeing with a CNBC talking head does not change the fact that the bulls are in control continuing to buy.  Index trends remain intact, and there are more good looking chart patterns than a person can buy.  Can we continue to ignore the massive unemployment, bankruptcies, negative earnings growth, and the future downgrades?  The US futures this morning seem to answer that question with a great big, yes, even with another 3 million in jobless claims expected!

Personally, it makes no sense to me, but as a full-time trader, my job is to trade the price action in the charts.  My bias and my understanding of why the market is acting in such a manner is not required.  Does that mean I should toss caution to the wind and ignore the technicals of the chart, such as support, resistance, and trend?  NO!  While the indexes continue to hold up-trends, we must recognize that the market continues to struggle with the price resistance above.  A big morning gap up ahead of Jobless report with price resistance above is not a reason to such into new trade risk.  In fact, it could be an excellent opportunity to ring the register and pocket some profits while watching for a possible pop and drop.  Long story short, irrational market price action is commonplace, and it’s the trader’s job to weigh the risk and reward without emotion, bias, or the desire to predict the unknown.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Market Seems To Be Waiting

After another gap-up open, there was a struggle for control as markets rode the rollercoaster for an hour.  However, after 11am the bears were firmly in control the rest of the day.  Another late-afternoon selloff led to closing on the lows as the SPY lost 0.68% on a Bearish Engulfing candle, the DIA lost 0.81% on a big black candle, and the QQQ managed to gain 0.62% on a Doji-like candle.  The VXX gained slightly to close at 39.21 and T2122 remains in the mid-range.  The 10-year bond yield rose to 0.708% and Oil (WTI) finished slightly down at $24.15/barrel.

The big story pre-market was ADP Payrolls reported down over 20 million jobs for April.  However, this number still was not as bad as estimates or even just the total of the most recent 4 weeks of new Unemployment Claims.  So, I don’t know how much read-through this might give for Friday’s official April number.  During the day, Oil reflected the recent rally with some profit-taking and at the same time, US production cuts showed as oil inventories came in much lower than expected.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,843,204 confirmed cases and 265,657 deaths.  In Europe, Russia continues to report record daily new cases.  At the same time, the Mayor of Moscow took his life in his hands when he said he believes the true number of cases in his city is at least 3 times the official number.  In the UK, the Bank of England said the UK economy may shrink 14% in 2020.  Germany also reported an uptick in cases as PM Merkel announced “Emergency Brake” plans in case the spread grows too much post easing.   

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In the US, we have 1,263,243 confirmed cases and 74,809 deaths.  Wednesday the President reversed himself again, saying the coronavirus task force will remain in place indefinitely, but again said they now are focused on vaccine development.  At the same time, Trump’s rhetoric on China continues to escalate and the trade leaders of the two countries will be meeting again.

Overnight, China reported April Exports rose 3.5% (expectation was a 15.7% decline).  Still, Asian markets were mixed and did not show as many big moves as typical of the last few months.  In Europe, markets are green across the board so far today.  However, they too are not giving huge moves, but instead steady climb so far.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a one percent gap higher at the open. 

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Q1 Nonfarm Productivity (both at 8:30 am) and a Fed speaker (4 pm).  However, on the earnings front, AAN, AAWW, ABC, AES, AMRK, BCE, BDX, BGG, BHC, BLL, BMY, BUD, CBRE, CFX, CLMT, CNP, CNQ, CRL, CTB, CTVA, DHR, DISH, ENB, ES, FIS, FOLD, GCI, HES, HFC, HII, HLT, IRM, IT, JBLU, MT, NRG, PENN, PWR, RLGY, RTX, TEVA, VIAC, and XEL all report before the open.

The bulls ran out of steam yesterday.  However, the bears are not exactly “killing it” either.  It’s as if the market were waiting on Friday’s payroll report, expecting it to be some sort of surprise.  Regardless, we may see a new lower-low Thursday as that is the direction of drift now.  Volatility remains a constant companion for traders.  So, all we can do is focus on the chart in front of us.  Continue to be cautious about longer swing trades, unless you can take some short-term pain.  

Ed

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today: CGBD, RYAM, ALGN, NKE, FFIV, FMC, BWA, JAZZ. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Trending Charts Everywhere

Trending Charts

Everywhere you look, there are trending charts, stock holding support levels, and great trading patterns displayed.   However, on the other side, there is a growing concern of recession, rampant unemployment, and consumer debit hitting record highs.  All the problems thus far have been masked by government stimulus, but one wonders just how long that can continue.  What I’m saying is don’t become complacent and remember we have the Employment Situation number coming out Friday morning, and it will be hard to ignore.

Asian markets closed mixed overnight, and European markets are seesawing between mild bullishness and bearishness this morning.  Ahead of the ADP report and a huge day of earnings reports the US futures to point to another gap up open.  Stay focused on price and remember a moring gap and easily be met by profit-takers.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Hump day is a busy day on the earnings calendar, with 475 companies stepping up to report.  Notable reports include PTON, DDD, ALB, AEP, AWK, AMP, APA, AVB, GOLD, BG, CCL, CARS, FUN, CTL, COTY, CVS, DISCA, EPR, ETSY, EXAS, STAY, FTNT, FOSL, GM, GPC, GDDY, GRUB, H, IAC, LYFT, MRO, MET, NYT, ODP, PZZA, PYPL, RMAX, SHB, SMG, SHOP, SQ, TMUS, TWLO, WM, WEN, WING, WYND, & ZTS.

Technically Speaking

 It was great to see so many profits taken yesterday with the follow-through bullish price action.  It looks as if those that continued to hold overnight will see additional rewards this morning.  However, as we head into the jobless claim numbers on Thursday and the Employment situation on Friday morning, it may be wise exercise a bit more caution.  Everywhere you look, there are trending charts showing bullish patterns, but let’s keep in mind in just 3-days the Dow will have recovered 700 to 800 points from Monday’s low will once again test overhead price resistance.  Concerns of recession, mounting consumer debt, and the massive unemployment began to gain some traction yesterday after a Fed member painted a pretty grim picture going forward.

After the bell, the DIS report displayed the massive impacts of the virus and suggested the full effects will happen next quarter.  One benefit they did enjoy was the tremendous increase in their streaming subscriber base that topped 54 million.  Today the market will grapple with another 475 earnings reports and an ADP number at 8:15 AM Eastern with a consensus estimate of 20 million jobs lost.  So far, the market has been able to ignore the unemployment, choosing to focus on governmental stimulus.  That may be the case today, but I’m not sure the Friday number will easily be glossed over unless we hear of another big check from the government on the way.  I guess what I’m saying is not to become complacent.  Stay focused and take those profits the market provides because anything is possible.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Oil Keeps Racing Higher on Demand Hope

Tuesday was a struggle between the bulls and bears.  Markets gapped a bit over 1% higher at the open.  After a morning follow-through for another percent, the bulls ran out of steam.  Markets ground sideways until 3pm, when a strong selloff drove us back down to the gap at day-end.  As a result, all 3 major indices printed high-wick candles that are at best indecisive.  The QQQ and DIA look more bearish in flavor.  On the day the DIA gains 0.58%, the SPY 0.92%, and the QQQ 1.13%. VXX fell back to 38.67, while the 10-year bond yield rose to 0.662%.  Oil (WTI) continued its recent tear rising another 23% (5 consecutive days of strong gains) to close at $25.12/barrel.

During the day, US Household Debt was reported at $14.3 trillion.  This was another record high, up 1.1% in Q1 on a 23rd straight quarter of increased borrowing.  The debt remains just shy of the 2007 record (inflation-adjusted) $15 trillion.  This increase came in-spite of creditors tightening standards in Q1 and most of the quarter coming before virus economic damage was significant.  Fed Vice Chair Clarida also said more help may be needed, but his baseline forecast is that economic growth will begin again in Q3.  However, he also said he expects the downturn to continue through Q2.  It is possible that this view of Q2 (CNBC interview) helped spark the selloff at 3pm Tuesday.

After the close, the President confirmed he’ll disband the coronavirus task force, maybe as soon as month-end.  He said the US economy must open, even if more Americans get sick or die, which he also said was inevitable.  So, he’ll be replacing the virus task force with one focused on economic growth.  Clearly, he assumes the infection increases will not be economically crippling and losses will be acceptable. 

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In an unrelated story, a Los Alamos National Lab report raised concerns over future treatment and vaccines.  The report said there are now 14 strains of COVID-19. The primary strain in the US (and world) came from a mutation in Europe.  Two parts of this are concerning.  First, the now dominant strain seems more contagious than the two strains that China sequenced and reported in late January.  Second, any mutations are likely to impact the efficacy of treatments or vaccines that were based on the original genetic sequence.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,747,400 confirmed cases and 258,973 deaths.  In Europe, only 5 countries are still not reporting declines in the new case rate and of those, only Bulgaria is reporting an increasing rate.  This lends more credence to European reopening timelines.  Still, the EU reported that it expects its economy to shrink 7.5% for the year (down from a February forecast of +1.4%).

In the US, we have 1,238,083 confirmed cases and 72,285 deaths.  Signs show that the economy is picking back up again as Weekly mortgage applications rose for the third straight week, up 7% week-on-week.  WEN made a couple of stories. It reported same-store sales rebounded hard as customers come back in droves.  However, they also reported that 18% of their stores have run out of beef.  It is worth noting that COST and KR both implemented meat rationing for their customers in the last few days. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  In Europe, markets are mixed, but leaning more to the green side so far today.  As of 7:45 am, US futures are pointing to a three-quarters of a percent gap higher at the open. 

The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am) and Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  However, AEP, ALXN, AXTA, BG, BWA, CDW, CVS, CNHI, DISCA, DISCK, FLIR, FMS, FTS, GM, GOLD, GPC, KKR, MEET, MFC, NI, ODP, OMI, PAG, SMG, SPR, TMUS, VMC, WM, and ZTS are among those who report before the open.

As said yesterday, the bulls and bears are still struggling.  So, volatility and gaps will remain the standard.  However, in the short-term it appears the bulls want to take us back up to at least retest resistance above.  All we can do is focus on the chart in front of us.  Continue to be cautious about longer swing trades, unless you can take some short-term pain.  

Ed

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today: CVE, ABBV, PAGS, ABT, LMT, SNAP, EBAY. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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A Record 3 Trillion!

3 Trillion
http://Demonocracy.info

It was an overall dull trading day until the news that the US Treasury plans to burrow 3 Trillion this quarter.  I guess that was music to the ears of the market, creating a sharp rally recovering yesterday’s losses to close in the green.  The bullish energy stayed with the futures all evening and now points to substantial gap up open ahead of earnings and economic data.

Asian markets closed mostly higher despite the big hit Hong Kong reported in the first quarter.  European markets are in rally mode this morning as more virus restrictions lifted, and the hope of recovery grows.  US Futures suggest a Dow bullish gap of nearly 250 points reversing yesterday’s selloff and proving support of the DIA and IWM 50-day average. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

With new additions, the Tuesday earnings calendar expects more than 375 reports today.  Notable reports include NEM, DIS, ATVI, AOS, ALK, AGN, ALL, BYND, BCO, CAKE, CC, DVA, DVN, D, DD, EA, FACU, FLR, ITW, I, J,  KGC, LC, TREE, LGIH, MPC, MAT, OXY, PINS, PLNT, PRU, REGN, RCL, STOR, SU, SYY, TRIP, W, WU, & WYNN.

Technically Speaking

It was a pretty bleak day yesterday with light and choppy price action until the report came out that the US Treasury planned to burrow a record 3 Trillion this quarter.  After the news, the market rallied strongly, confirming the market has no concern about debit as long as the money keeps flowing to the market.  The bullish energy continued overnight with the futures market rising, pointing to a substantial gap up open reversing Monday’s selloff.  California, Wahington, joins other states in getting back to business with limitations and new social guidelines.  The market seems to have gains some energy on the reopening even though many suggest its too early, worrying about the 2nd round of increasing infections.  Even Congress has returned to work wearing masks and indicating no more closures of the government. I’ll let you decide if that’s good news or not!

By the close yesterday, the DIA & IWM proved the 50-day average as support with this morning’s follow-through providing some conformation of the hold.  We have a big day of earings with over 375 companies reporting, but I’m not sure that matters.  We rally on good earnings reports, and we rally on bad earings reports choosing to focus on the trillions of governmental spending.  I guess massive debt negative earnings growth and 30 million unemployed is no match for the apparent unlimited checkbook of the government.  One has to wonder about the long-term ramifications of these decisions.  That said, the trend is bullish, the hold of support levels provides conformation, and we as traders must focus on the price action of the charts.  I don’t need to understand it or agree with the market decisions as long as I set aside my bias and trade the price action.

Trade Wisely,

Doug