With AAPL leading the way, the bulls once again successfully defended vital price support levels on Friday with a remarkable surge of buying at the end of day Friday. With a rise of 10.47%, APPL became the most valuable company in the world, and single handly was responsible for the majority of the rally. The bullish pressure continues this morning with APPL indicated to gap up at the open.
Asian markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight as China’s July manufacturing data come in above expectations. European indexes trade bullishly across the board this morning and US Futures that traded flat most of the night have gone bullish this morning with new record highs likely in the QQQ at the open. A busy economic and earnings calendar will likely keep volatility elevated in the week ahead, so remain focused on price action and remain flexible.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Our biggest week of earnings reports for the 3rd quarter is now behind us, but we still have a busy week with 146 companies reporting this Monday. Notable reports include AIG, AWR, CRUS, CLX, CTB, ESS, IR, J, LEG, L, MCK, MOS, NNN, O, RNG, SBAC, TTWO, THC, TXRH, TSN, VVV, SPCE, VNO,& WMB.
News and Technical’s
Saturday negotiations on the stimulus bill ended in a deadlock with the unemployment bonus remaining as the major sticking point. The $600 per week additional payment ended last Friday as the two sides duke it out with sound bites and rhetoric in the weekend news that will spill over into this week’s price action. As pandemic infections spread widely across the country, Lord & Taylor, the owner of Men’s Wearhouse files for bankruptcy. A theme that’s become all too familiar in recent months and sadly a reality that could easily continue through the rest of the year. Last week the President threatened to ban the popular social media app TikTok but has since backed off the notion after MSFT announced it is in discussions to buy the company in a deal they hope to complete by Sept. 15th. A move that would, for the first time, put MSFT in direct competition with FB and TWTR.
With a strong afternoon rebound, the bulls once again defend critical moving average support in the DIA mostly on the bullishness of AAPL. Not only did the price of the stock soar 10.47% on Friday, but it also became the most valuable company in the world. Pre-market activity indicates the rush to buy MSFT is not over with the stock indicated to gap up again at the open today. Although the US Futures were relatively flat overnight, they have started the morning push that is likely to set new all-time high records in the QQQ. Interestingly the Absolute Breadth Indicator continues to decline, which indicates fewer and fewer companies are responsible for the current rally. Expect another wild week of price action, especially if we begin to see any profit-taking in the big tech stocks.
Markets gapped higher Friday about six-tenths of a percent on the back of huge beats by the major tech stocks. However, this was met with an instant selloff that more than faded the gap. The lows were reached about 1 pm, followed by an hour of sideways grinding. However, at 2 pm a strong late-day rally drove prices higher right into the end of the day and saw prices close on the highs. For the day, DIA gained 0.41%, SPY gained 0.79%, and QQQ gained 1.78% as those major FAANG stocks (particularly AAPL) led the market. VXX fell to 28.52 and the T2122 4-week New High/Low Ratio fell to 59.68. The 10-year bond fell slightly to 0.533% and Oil (WTI) rose to $40.45/barrel.
The Enhanced Unemployment Benefit expired Friday as Congress, the Senate and the White House made little to no progress on negotiations. Republicans blamed Democrats for not accepting partial stop-gaps and Democrats blamed Republicans for waiting months to get to work and not even arriving at a proposal half of their own caucus will support. This all comes as rent and loan defaults are a growing concern in the real estate and banking sectors. Somewhat related to more stimulus, this weekend Fitch reduced the US Debt outlook from stable to negative citing current high fiscal deficits, deteriorating public finances, and a likely path to increasing medium-term debt.
In the virus front itself, in the US, the virus numbers show we now have 4,813,984 confirmed cases and 158,375 deaths. Friday saw over 71,000 new cases, well above the 7-day average. Deaths also remained far above the 7-day average at over 1,100 for the 5th day in a row. Dr. Fauci said this weekend that the virus is so contagious it is likely to never completely disappear, even with effective vaccines. On Sunday, his counterpart Dr. Birx warned that we are now in a new phase with “extraordinarily widespread” cases in the US.
Globally, the number of cases has reached 18,258,528 confirmed cases and 697,395 deaths. On Friday the W.H.O. reported a single-day record of over 300,000 new cases across the world. This weekend Russia said it is gearing up for a national vaccination program planning to start with healthcare workers and teachers. They’ll use a vaccine supposedly developed by themselves, although no scientific study data on the vaccine has been released. Western experts are skeptical that Russia really has an effective vaccine developed, tested, manufactured, and ready for rollout all 4-6 months ahead of the rest of the world. However, that is the Russian claim. In Australia, strict new measures including total curfews have been implemented in its second-largest state.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, with Japan and China as big gainers (on private survey reports showing China’s PMI (not government numbers) came in at a blowout 52.8 (highest in 9 years). In Europe, markets are basically green across the board, but there is a clear dichotomy so far today with the DAX up over 2% and the FTSE up less than seven-tenths of a percent on strong Eurozone Manufacturing PMI. In the US, at 7:30 am futures are pointing to a higher open, but following the European example, with a large spread. The DIA is looking to open up 0.30%, the SPY up 0.47%, and the QQQ up 0.91%.
The major economic news for Monday is limited to July Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), July ISM Mfg. Employment and July ISM Mfg. PMI (both at 10 am). The major earnings reports on the day include AHCO, ACM, AMCX, AME, ARMK, ATI, BP, EMR, EXC, EXPD, FIS, HSIC, LDOS, LEA, OMI, REZI, SPR, TDG, USFD, VMC, WEC, WRK, and ZBH all before the open. Then after the close ACHC, ALL, ATVI, AIZ, BBSI, DIS, DK, ENLC, EQH, FNF, MCHP, OI, PAGP, PRU, PXD, TX, and WU report.
The whiplash continued Friday with all three major indices printing Hammer or Hanging Man type candles. However, while both large-cap indices continue to consolidate, the mega-tech earnings blowouts saw the QQQ nearing a retest of the all-time highs. Manufacturing data that comes out this morning is expected to give the US a boost the way it did in Asia and Europe. However, remember that the virus remains much more of an unresolved problem here than elsewhere among the top economies.
The trend remains bullish, but volatility and certainty of direction also plays a significant role. So, continue to keep an eye on those mega-cap FAANG stocks as our “canary in the coalmine.” Stick with your rules. Follow the trend, don’t predict reversals or chase missed-moves, and always take profits as you go. Our job is to achieve our trade goals on a consistent basis, not to hit home runs every time we swing the bat.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: RIOT, NAT, IAG, DXC, NLOK, CSCO, PYPL, MSFT, ADBE. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
The worst reading on GDP in history and blowout tech earnings deliver a surprisingly muted response in the US Futures markets this morning. Even with the concern of rising unemployment with the four tech giants adding more than 200 billion in valuation on Thursday afternoon, I would have expected more. We have certainly seen the market leap higher on far less in recent months, have we not? With this now in the rear-view mirror, perhaps the focus has turned the stimulus battle in Congress and the rising virus death toll. Perhaps, we should consider the possibility of a sell the news event as we slide into the weekend.
Asian markets closed mixed with Japan falling as much as 3% overnight. European markets trade mixed but mostly bullish this morning as they wait on their GDP numbers. Ahead of another big round of earnings and economic reports, US futures point to modest gains at the open. Expect volatility to remain elevated as we slide into the weekend.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
This Friday, we have just over 110 companies reporting. Notable reports include ABBV, BAH, CAT, CHTR, DVX, CHD, CL, D, E, XOM, FCAU, GT, ITW, IYB, MELI, MRK, NWL, NOK, PSX, PINS, TIF, UAA, VFC, & WPC.
News & Technical’s
After the worst GDP reading in history, big tech surprised investors with blowout earnings results. According to reports, the four tech giants added over 200 billion in valuation Thursday afternoon. With a considerable increase in iPhone and iPad sales, it would seem a substantial amount of the stimulus checks went directly to buy new tech devices. Maybe the biggest surprise is that the futures after such an impressive tech performance show bullishness but somewhat muted in response. Perhaps it’s the infighting of Congress as they haggle over the new stimulus bill, the rising virus death toll, or the US/China tensions as Moderna experiences another cyber attack to steal details on the vaccine. The one thing I think we can continue to count on is that this earnings season will continue to deliver surprises, and price action will likely remain volatile.
Although we experienced some significant selling yesterday morning that pushed the Dow briefly below its 50-day moving average, there was little to no technical damage left behind in the indexes by the end of the day. The bulls showed their strength defending price support levels, and the bears can’t seem to sustain an attach longer than a couple of hours. I hate even to bring this up, but with the muted futures response this morning, should we consider the possibility of a so-called sell the news event? Maybe? However, I will have to stay with the current trend and bullish patterns for now. Today will get a reading on the Personal Income and Outlays and Consumer Sentiment with industrials and oil front and center on the earnings calendar.
Markets gapped down on the 33% Q2 GDP contraction and unexpected rising jobless claims. However, after a half-hour of follow-through, the bulls stepped back in and rallied stocks until 1 pm. The rest of the day was a tight-range grind sideways. This left the SPY down 0.36%, the DIA down 0.84%, and the QQQ up 0.52% on the day. The VXX climbed 2% to 29.20 while T2122 fell to 73.94. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.548% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2% to $40.41/barrel. Yet, despite all this on the day, the main characteristics for the last week have been consolidation and chop.
After the close AAPL, AMZN, FB, and GOOG all reported strong beats. With their mega-caps, this will surely drive markets higher at least at the open Friday. AMZN’s surge in sales and profit was expected with all the pandemic online buying but it was still impressive. AAPL’s beat was much larger than expected with a major beat on iPhone sales to give them a record quarter. They also announced a 4-for-1 stock split as on August 24. It is also worth noting the FB beat on ad revenue despite the advertising boycott, though they did mention that it could have an impact for Q3.
In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,635,226 confirmed cases and 155,306 deaths. With new cases came in at 68,569 Thursday (above the 7-day average) and deaths remained high at 1,465 (far above the 7-day average). Several states had record new cases confirmed Thursday, but not the usual suspects. This time it was states such as MO that set records. However, FL had almost 10,000, TX almost 9,000, and CA almost 8,200 as they still lead in actual new case count. In a virus-impact story, after the close, S&P said that over 150 firms that received PPP loans are planning layoffs. This is only based on layoff notices and does not include all states. 44% of the layoffs are described as “permanent” with 22% more “unclassified.”
Globally, the number of cases has reached 17,505,359 confirmed cases and 677,459 deaths. In Latin America, Argentina reported its highest number of infections and deaths on Thursday. Meanwhile, Brazil continues to see large numbers with another 58,000 new cases. Closer to home, Mexico In Asia, the outbreaks in Japan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, India, and Australia. China also reports a 3rd straight day of the new outbreak, but they have a stricter measure than we do, as they mean over 100 cases, not tens of thousands.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again, with Australia down 2% and Japan down almost 3%. However, Shenzhen was up over 1.3% and Shanghai up 0.7% as Chinese Factory Data beat expectations. The remainder of Asian Market moves were modest and probably leaned to the red. In Europe, markets are also mixed, but lean much more heavily to the green side. The 3 major bourses all have very modest moves so far, with the FTSE flat, CAC up a quarter percent, and the DAX up six-tenths at this point in the day. This all comes as Eurozone GDP fell 12.1% in Q2. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to one percent gap up in the QQQ, but the DIA and SPY are just on the green side of flat.
The major economic news for Friday includes June PCE, Q2 Employment Cost, and June Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am). The major earnings reports include ABBV, AON, BAH, BERY, CAT, CBRE, CHD, CHTR, CL, CVX, D, GT, HRC, IMO, ITW, JCI, LHX, LYB, MRK, NWL, PBF, PEG, PSX, SNA, SPB, TU, VFC, WY, and XOM all before the open. INTU is the only major earnings after the close.
The consolidation and back-and-forth chop continued again Thursday. However, the mega-tech earnings blowouts should give the bulls some energy early today. Vaccine manufacturers continue to rack up major contracts as Japan and the US both signed major deals. So that industry’s stocks should get a boost. However, remember that despite the swings, nothing has really changed in the trend or chart. The trend remains bullish and the chart remains consolidating.
Continue to keep an eye on those mega-cap FAANG stocks as our “canary in the coalmine.” Stick to your rules. Follow the trend, don’t predict reversals or chase missed-moves, and always take profits as you go. Remember, our job is to make our goal consistently, not to win the lottery on one trade. And don’t forget it’s Friday, so lock-in some profits ahead of the weekend spin cycle.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: CWH, LOGI, FAST, XLK, AA, CRWD, ABT, KRE, COF. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
A deluge of big tech reports, GDP and Jobless claims have come together to create the perfect storm of uncertainty. Today could be very challenging, but the Friday open has the potential to be very wild, and no one knows if the bulls or the bears will leading the charge. Anything is possible, so consider the risk carefully you carry into today’s close. Can they produce earnings strong enough to support current prices? We will find out after the bell today.
Asian markets closed modestly bearish across the board overnight in reaction to the FOMC rate decision. European markets trade cautiously this morning, leaning slightly into the red. US Futures are decidedly bearish this morning, pointing to a gap down open ahead of earnings, GDP and jobless claims. Buckle up the next 24 hours have the potential to be very volatile.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
All eyes will be on the big tech earnings reports after the bell today. Overall we have more than 250 companies reporting their quarterly results will make it our busiest day so far this season. Notable reports include FB, AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, AMT, BUD, MT, AZN, TEAM, BAX, CARS, CC, CI, CLF, CMCSA, COF, COR, CS, CROX, DECK, DNKN, ELAN, EA, LLY, EXPE, F, FTS, GPC, GILD, GRUB, HBI, HST, K, KHC, LIN, LTC, MA, MGM, TAP, MCO, NEM, NOC, PG, PFPT, RDFN, SHAK, SIRI, SO, SWK, SYK, SYK, TW, UPS, X, VLO, VRTX, WM, WWE, XLNX, & YUM.
News & Technical’s
This morning we will likely get an historic reading on the GDP with numbers near the World War 2 economic impacts. The question to be answered is the number already baked into the market’s pricing, or will there be a strong reaction. At the same time will get the latest details on Jobless claims that could begin to creep back up due to the second wave virus impacts. The FOMC yesterday decided to stand fast on interest rates and said the direction of the economy will be tied directly to the length and duration of the pandemic. There are likely to be a lot of fireworks after the bell today as FB, AMZN, APPLE, and GOOGL report quarterly results. The uncertainty surrounding these reports has the market on edge, and traders should expect a wild open on Friday as a result. As Congress haggles over the details of the next stimulus bill, the still found time to hold a virtual flogging of the top tech business accusing them of everything from anticompetitive practices to outright stealing. I’m sure there is much more to come on this subject in the near future.
Even with the uncertainty and very choppy price action, the bulls have maintained majority control over the indexes. However, with such a big day of data coming our way, anything is possible. Going into the close today, traders will have to consider carefully the risk and price volatility we could experience Friday at the open. The potential for a huge gap is high, and the big question yet to be answered is, will it be controlled by the bull or the bear? Your guess is as good as mine.
Markets gapped up about three-tenths of a percent and proceeded to put in a slow, steady all-day rally. As expected, the Fed decision and statement gave no surprises and only the big Tech anti-trust hearings caused any blip at all. However, stocks still closed near their highs. Yet even with a nice candle on the day, no major ground has been gained by the bulls or bears for the week as a whole. The SPY closed up 1.20%, the DIA up 0.59%, and the QQQ up 1.15% for the day. The VXX fell to 28.52 and T2122 climbed well back into the overbought territory at 91.57. 10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.577% and Oil (WTI) rose slightly to $41.30/barrel.
The key takeaway from Fed Chair Powell’s press conference was that the FOMC is “not even thinking about raising rates” and while recovering, “the economy remains well below the levels at the beginning of the year.” So monetary policy should remain full speed ahead on the printing presses. On the Fiscal side, the Democrats and Republicans remain far apart (as well as the Republicans within their own ranks) on another Stimulus bill agreement.
On the Anti-trust hearings, the CEOs of AAPL, AMZN, FB, and GOOG were beaten up with evidence of anti-competitive activities. The CEO’s general approach seemed to be denial or reframing of the allegations. However, Jeff Bezos went a different route, claiming to be shocked and concerned at the accusations. It is worth noting that FB, AMZN, GOOG, and AAPL stocks all rose well over a percent on the day. So, Mr. Market did not care about at least the first couple hours of the process.
In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,568,375 confirmed cases and 153,848 deaths. With new cases came in at 66,921 Wednesday and deaths rose again to 1,485. TX passed NY to join CA and FL with the distinction of being the most-infected states. This came as another group of scientists called for a second national shutdown. The first group was 150 scientists who wrote an open letter last weekend. Johns Hopkins University Infectious Disease Department scientists became the second group, recommending 10 steps which included a national lockdown and nationally mandatory masks to stem the tide.
Globally, the number of cases has reached 17,213,663 confirmed cases and 670,909 deaths. In Asia, Australia, Hong Kong, India, and Vietnam all had record numbers of new cases while Japan and South Korea were near record highs. In Europe, Italy extended its state of emergency through Oct. 15. This comes as Germany reports the sharpest quarterly economic drop on record (a 10.1% contraction).
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again, but this time lean toward the red. However, the moves were modest. The lone outlier is Taiwan, which was up 1.45%. In Europe, markets are strongly red across the board on poor economic data and a resurgence of cases in a number of EU countries. As of this point, the FTSE is down 1.92%, the DAX down 2.85%, and the CAC down 1.68%. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to a once percent gap down across the 3 major indices. However, the economic data at 8:30 am is likely to have a significant impact one way or the other.
The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Q2 GDP and Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am). Major earnings include AOS, AGCO, ALXN, AMT, BUD, APTV, ARW, AZN, BAX, CARR, CI, CLF, CNHI, CMCSA, COP, DAN, DBD, DD, FNMA, FMCC, FMS, GPC, GPI, HBI, HUBB, IDA, ICE, IP, K, KDP, KHC, LIN, LKQ, LLY, MA, MAS, MCO, MD, MMC, MT, NEM, NOC, ODFL, OSK, PG, SAH, SIRI, SNDR, SO, SWK, TAP, TMHC, TXT, UPS, VLO, WM, WLTW, XEL, XYL, and YUM all before the open. Then AAPL, AJG, AMZN, ATUS, BLDR, CC, DVA, EA, F, FB, FLEX, FLS, GILD, GOOG, HIG, INT, LPLA, MHK, MOH, MTZ, RLGY, SEM, X, VRTX, and XPO all report after the close.
Wednesday gave us a nice candle in an otherwise consolidating last week. With no sign of a stimulus deal yet, it will surely be GDP and Jobless Claims that call the tune for the day. However, there are a lot of important earnings today(but most of the mega-cap tech names are after the close). So, volatility is likely to continue after the news.
Did you ever think you’d see a day when if we were lucky enough to see a 30% GDP contraction, that might be seen as a major beat of estimates? The point is we are in uncharted waters. We really don’t know how good or bad any number will be seen by the overall market. All we know for sure is that bulls have been wearing their rose-colored glasses for some time and that whipsaws are fast.
Keep the FAANG stocks in your line of sight as they will point the way. Follow the trend, don’t try to predict reversals or chase moves that got away. And always, always take profits as you go. Remember, trading is a job and we’re here to consistently make profits, not win the lottery.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: OIH, V, SIG, SYF, FITB, FAST, COF. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
There seems to be considerable uncertainty amongst traders and investors facing a big day of earnings and a pending FOMC decision. Yesterday was undoubtedly a frustrating day of intraday whipsaws and choppy price action that culminated in a bearish push reversing the bullish action seen on Monday. What comes next is anyone’s guess, so stay focused and flexible. Remember, there is no shame in standing aside, protecting your capital if you have no edge in such a new driven environment. Cash is a position!
Asian markets closed the day mixed and relatively flat as they wait for the FOMC decision. European markets also trade mixed chopping around the flat-line uncertain about what comes next. US Futures trade flat this morning ahead of a massive day of data with an equal chance of encouraging the bulls or bringing on a bearish attack. Buckle up for the wild ride the next couple days could provide.
The market will have no shortage of data to digest today with 3rd quarter earnings ramping up and including some of the tech giants reporting after the bell. We will also get the FOMC decision at 2 PM Eastern, followed by Jerome Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later. Republicans and Democrats seem to be digging into entrenched position over the next stimulus bill as the two sides step up the rhetoric as they battle between price tags of 1 to 3 trillion of additional deficit spending. Meanwhile, on the coronavirus front, the official death toll from the pandemic crossed 150,000, with more than 65,000 new infections report yesterday. With all this going on, Congress still has the time to bring in several of the top tech company CEO’s to grill them in public hearings.
After a very choppy day of trading, the bears stepped up their activity as we headed into the close yesterday, reversing the bullish action on Monday. Clearly, there remains considerable uncertainty among traders and investors amidst the mixed bag of earnings reports as companies report the impacts of the pandemic. With a slew of morning earnings and economic reports followed by an FOMC decision, anything is possible. Traders will have to be in top form to navigate the minefield of news that could create very volatile price action in reaction. Plan carefully, stay focused, and flexible while weighing the considerable risk in such a new driven environment.
Stocks opened down slightly, then ground sideways until 3 pm when a late-day selloff closed us on the lows Tuesday. Overall, it was a blah summer day, seeming to wait on Fed news or some other catalyst. On the day, SPY closed down 0.59%, DIA down 0.76%, and QQQ down 1.27%. Oddly on a down day, VXX also closed down to 29.17, but as expected T2122 also fell just a touch to 78.07. 10-year bond yields were flat at 0.579% and Oil (WTI) fell back to $40.93/barrel. On the upside, Gold closed at another all-time high.
During the afternoon, the Fed announced it is extending its pandemic loan programs (previously planned to end in September) through at least the end of the year. At the same time, Senate Majority Leader McConnell was telling the press what he refuses to negotiate with Democrats and other Republican Senators were saying they oppose the GOP plan. Not to be outdone, Senate Minority Leader Schumer was attacking the Republican plan from the opposite direction.
Last evening, V reported sharply lower revenue and earnings. The company said that even as the country was reopening in June, they saw spending using their cards down 10% during the month (which was actually an estimate beat). BBY also announced that they will join the bandwagon of companies that will not open Thanksgiving Day.
In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,498,475 confirmed cases and 152,343 deaths. With new cases came in at 64,729 Tuesday and deaths more than doubled day-to-day to 1,245. FL and NC both reported a record number of virus hospitalizations Tuesday. However, FL also reported a bit less than their 7-day average of new cases. Outbreak fears seem to have shifted from the sunbelt to the IN, OH, KY, and TN area.
Globally, the number of cases has reached 16,923,001 confirmed cases and 664,191 deaths. UK PM Johnson warned of a second wave in Europe. This came as the UK and Germany both toughened their travel restrictions for Spain based on an outbreak in the Barcelona region. This came as the Spanish PM warned tougher measures will be needed unless the spread is broken in the next 10 days. In Asia, the Vietnamese PM said every city and province in his country is now at high risk for infection and that they will institute strict lockdowns. Hong Kong Chief Executive Lam said the city was on the verge of a crippling outbreak as well.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again, with Japan and India significantly lower, but China strongly higher. The rest of the national bourses were mixed and closer to flat. In Europe, a similar scene is taking place with the only significant moves being France to the upside and Italy to the downside so far on Wednesday. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to a flat to mildly green open.
The major economic news for Wednesday includes June Trade Balance and June Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am), June Pending Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), FOMC Statement and Rate Decision (2 pm), and the FOMC Press Conf. (2:30 pm). Major earnings include AAN, AER, ANTM, ADP, AXTA, BA, BSX, BCO, BG, CLS, GIB, CME, ENB, EPB, ETN, ETR, GD, GE, GM, HES, IPG, MGLN, MKL, NSC, OC, PAG, R, SNY, SC, SMG, SPOT, TROW, TEL, and TT all before the open. Then after the close, ADM, AMP, APA, AR, ASGN, AVTR, CCI, CERN, CTSH, CXO, EQIX, FBHS, FTI, LRCX, PYPL, QCOM, QRVO, NOW, SFM, TPC, URI, and YUMC.
With the FOMC not until afternoon and the government arguing over who gets what money and which politician gets the credit, it looks like earnings will drive any move prior to the Fed. And while the FOMC is not expected to make any policy moves, the market is waiting for either reassurance or a scare from Chair Powell’s comments. So, while we will likely see volatility in spots, it would not be unexpected to see drift until 2pm. Also, remember that most Fed moves see a whipsaw 10-15 minutes after the initial move.
Keep an eye on those FAANG stocks as our “canary in the coalmine” and follow the trend. Don’t try to predict reversals, don’t chase moves that got away, and always take profits as you go. Remember, trading is a job and we’re here to consistently make profits, not win the lottery.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: NIO, GM, XLU, KR, HOG, YNDX, ZS, IYR, BAC. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
The tech giants MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, and AMZN had nice rallies yesterday, lifting the indexes while the vast majority lacked the volume to break choppy consolidation ranges. Please make no mistake that price patterns of stocks and the indexes remain bullish; however, there appears to be a palpable uncertainty as we ramp up earnings. With a busy day of earnings reports, a reading on Consumer Confidence, and the beginning of the 2-day FOMC meeting, anything is possible, and price volatility could be challenging.
Asian markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight with modest gains in the SHANGHAI and HIS. European markets are flat to slightly lower this morning amid stimulus hopes and rising US/China tensions. US Futures are lifting off of morning lows but continue to point to a modestly lower open ahead a big day of earnings and economic data. Remain focused and flexible as anything is possible.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have a big day with 93 companies reporting results. Notable reports include MMM, AMD, AFL, AKAM, MO, AMGN, CAR, BXP, CNC, DB, GLW, DHI, DENN, EBAY, ECL, FEYE, BEN, HOG, JBLU, JNPR, MCD, MDLZ, MSCI, OKE, PFE, RTX, ROK, ROP, SPGI, STX, SHW, STAG, SBUX, TRU, V, WH, & YNDX.
News & Technical’s
The Senate unveils their version of the coronavirus relief plan with $1200 stimulus checks and $500 for dependents. The bill includes a replacement of 70% of unemployed wages in the extended benefits. There is also considerable funds to help schools trying to get back work this fall. The President’s national security advisor Robert O’Brien has tested positive for COVID, but hot states are starting to show signs of slowing infection rates. However, major league baseball postponed two games yesterday of their shortened season due to several players testing positive. Today begins a marked increase in earnings season ramps up to a fevered pitch with several big tech reports on the way Wednesday and Thursday. Today also starts the 2-day FOMC meeting that culminates in a 2 PM Eastern announcement Wednesday afternoon. According to consensus estimates, the Consumer Confidence numbers expect a small decline when they are released a 10 AM Eastern.
Yesterday saw nice gains in APPL, AMZN, GOOG, FB & MSFT but, the majority of stock found it challenging to find enough volume to move out of choppy consolidation ranges. Futures opened trading last night positive but have since shown some hesitation ahead of busy earnings calendar. Although the VIX pulled back yesterday, it remains quite elevated closing above a 24 handle. So as a few tech giants do the majority of the lifting, there seems to be a palpable uncertainty that the majority of stocks will have some trouble supporting current prices. Only time will tell, but traders should prepare for considerable volatility as we progress through this new laden week. Be careful not to overtrade staying focused on price action flexible as the market reacts to all the data.
A quarter percent higher open led to a roller-coaster morning. However, an afternoon rally saw markets close near their highs, particularly on strength from the mega-cap tech stocks. The QQQ gained 1.78%, SPY gained 0.74%, and DIA gained 0.48%. The VXX closed down to 29.34 and T2122 settled right on the edge of overbought territory at 80.08. 10-year bond yields rose a bit to 0.610% and Oil (WTI) also rose slightly to $41.61/barrel. It’s also worth noting that gold soared to a record high of $1,931.50/oz.
Last evening INTC announced their head of Engineering (who was widely expected to be the next CEO) will leave the company next Monday. No word on if or how this relates to INTC’s announced engineering and manufacturing delays. Unrelated, but about the same time, T subsidiary Warner Brothers also announced that their widely-anticipated new high-budget film Tenet will be released internationally first and then a few weeks later in select US cities in an attempt to reduce virus impact. GOOG announced they are extending their work-from-home plan through at least July 2021. Finally, MCD reported early this am with a 30% revenue drop and a same-store sales short-fall of just 2.3%.
In the US, the virus numbers show we have 4,433,532 confirmed cases and 150,450 deaths. With new cases falling to 61,571 and deaths down to 596, there are signs of plateauing again in at least the 3 worst-hit states (FL, TX, and AZ). Better yet, PFE announced that they had started their phase 3 trial in conjunction with German biotech partner BNTX. This was a timeline acceleration to avoid falling behind MRNA whose own phase 3 trials also began on Monday. It will take a couple of weeks to enroll enough participants in either study and the preliminary results ought to be available as soon as the end of October.
Globally, the number of cases has reached 16,672,852 confirmed cases and 657,270 deaths. The numbers are worrying. However, the real issue of concern is that even the countries that actually acted fast and decisively, and seemingly had the virus under control, are now seeing a resurgence. Among these are China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea. The obvious question is if countries with extremely high mask compliance and fast, strict quarantines have trouble controlling this virus, what does that imply for much less compliant and much more economically-focused countries like the US?
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaning more to the green side. China, South Korea, and India all put up gains of over 1%. Japan, Australian, and Thailand were the losers on the day, but not down as much as the winners were up. In Europe, markets are much more on the red side so far in the day. The moves are modest, but the red is broad-based with only Greece, Belgium, and the FTSE on the green side. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to a gap lower a third of one percent at the open.
The only major economic news for Tuesday is Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am). However, there are a lot of major earnings with ABG, BEN, CMI, CNC, DHI, DTE, ECL, GLW, HOG, HUN, IVZ, LH, LW, MCD, MDC, MLM, MMM, MO, OMC, PFE, PII, ROP, RTX, SPGI, SHW, XRX, and ZBRA are all among those reporting before the open. After the close, AMD, AFL, AKAM, AMGN, CAR, CB, CHRW, CE, CYH, EBAY, EIX, FTV, THG, JNPR, MDLZ, MRC, NCR, OKE, PKG, SBUX, SSNC, STX, UNM, and V all report.
Monday gave us morning indecision and an afternoon rally (perhaps on Fed hopes). However, nothing really changed in the trend or chart. While it was a decent candle in the QQQ, we still did not print a Morning Star, the bullish trend remains in place, and there remains work ahead if bulls plan to push up through the top again.
Today is a light day on planned news and may well be driven by earnings, hopeful vaccine news, and politicking over stimulus. However, we could also sit on our hands for a day waiting on reassurance from the Fed.
Keep an eye on those FAANG stocks as our “canary in the coalmine.” Follow the trend, don’t chase or predict reversals, and always take profits as you go. Remember, trading is a job and we’re here to consistently make profits, not win the lottery.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: WU, XHB, COF, IBM, OIH, HAL, DFS, SLB, HPR, XLV, VXX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
