A historic market gap on a piece of hopeful vaccine news making new record highs in the DIA and SPY as recovery sentiment surged. Unfortunately, after the pop, profit-takers left behind a negative candle pattern raising the possibility of price pulling back to fill the massive gap. Big tech seemed to struggle while small-caps enjoyed a solid performance as traders looked for value and small businesses to begin recovering. With a very news-driven market and massive price fluctuations possible in the next story, plan your risk very carefully.
Asian markets traded mixed but mostly higher overnight, led by Hong Kong that surged more than 1%. European markets trade green across the board this morning in a choppy session as they grapple with the contradictions of shutdowns and hopeful virus news. U.S. futures have recovered from overnight lows; however, they still suggest a mixed open ahead of earnings and a very light economic calendar.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have more than 70 companies reporting 4th quarter results today. Notable reports include AAP, DOX, BRKS, DHI, DDOG, FUBO, LYFT, RXT, RKT,& ROK.
News & Technicals’
As virus numbers continue to rise across the country, there have been several stories about hopeful vaccines providing market confidence. Joe Biden talks about the possibility of a mandatory national mask policy to combat the virus should he be certified as the President-elect. However, President Trump refuses to concede, and the attorney general has started election investigations, which prevents funds from being made available for a transition team. The so-called Obamacare act faces a Supreme Court challenge today, but a decision is not expected until June. The EU launched antitrust charges against Amazon, suggesting they are distorting competition with online retail markets. AMZN shares are suggesting more than 2% lower this morning.
A day after a historic market gap, futures trade mixed but well off of overnight lows. The big pop and drop price action left behind some negative candle patterns, but they held above price support levels by the end of the day. The QQQ had the weakest performance, with many tech giants struggling to find buyers while the small-cap stocks in the IWM gained favor as vaccine hopes drove recovery sentiment. Oil prices surged about 8%, and the financial sector recovered substantially yesterday while stay at home stocks saw strong bearish attacks. The risk remains high in this very news-driven market, so plan your plan carefully because the next big gap or full reversal could be just one story away.
Markets gapped to all-time highs Monday on a combination of liking the Biden election victory and elation over the PFE / BTNX trial results. However, after the record-breaking and massive gap higher, markets faded that gap all day, which left us with big ugly black candles in all 3 major indices. The QQQ even printed a large Bearish Engulfing candle. On the day, SPY closed up 1.26%, DIA up 3.00%, and QQQ down 2.04%. VXX was down over 2% to 20.07 and T2122 remains deeply overbought at 91.39. 10-year bond yield made massive gains to 0.922% and Oil (WTI) gained 7.4% to $39.89/barrel.
Part of the day’s fade may have been related to realizing the PFE vaccine joy came on only preliminary data (94 cases), doesn’t include safety data yet, and the vaccine will not be widely available until Q2/Q3 (according to PFE Director Gottlieb). However, another potential cause could be Senator McConnell saying that with a vaccine now in sight, maybe we don’t need as much stimulus. CNBC also reported that with Senate runoff elections in January, it will be difficult for any deal to be done prior to those two seats being decided.
In miscellaneous business news, the EU has opened a second antitrust investigation of AMZN. Meanwhile, BABA is getting set for its Singles Day holiday Wednesday and expects that the addition of live-streaming events will raise the one-day sales to $125 billion. For reference, retail industry researchers estimate US sales on Black Friday were $7.4 billion and Cyber Monday another $9.4 billion.
The virus continues its massive surge. Monday saw another 125,000+ day for new cases, but only 632 deaths. Those numbers raised the 7-day average of new cases to 117,552 while the average of daily deaths is now 1,001/day. In positive news, last night the FDA gave emergency use authorization to the LLY antibody product which shows promise for having dropped the number of recipients who later contract the virus from 6.3% to 1.6%. LLY has a deal in place to provide 300,000 doses within 2 months of that approval. NVAX also gained approval to begin a phase 3 trial of its own vaccine candidate.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly green. China took the only hits, with Shenzhen (-1.05%), Shanghai (-0.40%), and Taiwan (-0.35%) all down. Hong Kong (+1.10%) paced the gainers among major markets, but smaller markets were up significantly more. In Europe, markets are mixed, but leaning red (mostly the smaller markets). Among the 3 major bourses, FTSE is up 1.32%, CAC up 1.03%, and DAX flat at +0.15% at this point in their day. As of 7:45 am, US market futures are also mixed. The DIA is pointing to a 0.71% gap higher, but the QQQ is pointing to a 1.51% gap down while the SPY is flat implying a -0.15% open.
The only major economic news for Tuesday is Sept. JOLTS (10 am) and a Fed speaker (Brainard at 5 pm). Major earnings reports include ADNT, APD, APG, and GIB before the open. Then after the close, ENS, HI, PTVE, REYN, SMICY, and SPTN report.
Volatility is likely to continue with the futures suggesting further unwind of the high-tech lockdown plays, but hope among the large-caps with a potentially effective vaccine on the horizon. Remember to not get caught up in moves you have missed. Fear of missing out (FOMO) is a deadly condition for traders. There will always be either another stock setup or the zig-zap motion of the market will bring the one you missed back when it consolidates. Keep locking in profits and maintain your discipline. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RAD, WKHS, PSX, FOLD, OKE, MOMO. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Friday was a rest day for markets after an extremely hard rally all week. All 3 major indices printed indecisive Doji or Spinning Top type candles. With little change from the Thursday close. On the day SPY was flat at down 0.02%, QQQ was flat at up 0.07%, and DIA was the “big mover” at -0.24%. VXX lost almost another 7% to 20.52 and the T2122 4-week New High/Low Ratio fell back to mid-range at 68.11. 10-year bond yields spiked to 0.822% and Oil (WTI) lost another 3.5% to $37.40/barrel. As said, on the week QQQ was up 9.37%, SPY up 7.23%, and DIA up 6.85% in what was the best week for stocks since April.
Over the weekend, the election results became clearer with the majority of the country recognizing a Biden victory. President Trump refuses to accept this outcome and will continue lawsuits in hopes that recounts and the courts will reverse or nullify apparent results. Up to this point, markets seem to like the idea of a split government with the Administration, Senate and House in different party’s hands. However, January runoff elections for two Georgia Senate seats leave a little bit of uncertainty about this apparent split government scenario. Nonetheless, assuming GOP victory in at least one Georgia Senate seat, prospects of a “blue wave” leading to major tax changes now seems off the table. So, the next thing that the market needs to figure out is what these election results will mean for a stimulus package either in a lame duck session or late January.
However, the main market news at this point of the morning was an early morning announcement by PFE and BNTX that their vaccine candidate is more than 90% effective at preventing infection 7 days after a second dose is administered (28 days after initial dose). There is no data available yet on short-term side effects, long-term health risks, or how long the protection will last. Nonetheless, this is a major step, and markets absolutely love what they hear so far Monday.
The virus is raging all across the country. Friday, we had yet another record high of well over 132,000 new cases and even the normally lower weekend numbers remained in the mid-120,000s. In total, the numbers show we have had 10,292,492 confirmed cases and 243,771 deaths. This includes 42 states with at least a 10% increase in avg. daily new case counts since last week (30 reporting a record high), 8 holding steady, and none falling. This record surge has raised the 7-day average of new cases to 111,226 while the average of daily deaths to 979/day.
Globally, the numbers rose to 50,856,631 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,263,784 deaths. Global record days on Friday and Saturday have led the 7-day average of new cases is 550,046 while the 7-day average virus deaths are 7,759/day. Obviously, this means more restrictions, lockdowns, and economic trouble, especially throughout Europe. Frankly, that should be in the cards again in the US but that does not seem to mesh with the desires of the administration.
Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board on the last-minute news of an effective vaccine from PFE/BTNX. mixed, but mostly green. Shenzhen (+2.25%) and Japan (+2.12%) led the rally, but the strength was wide-spread. In Europe, markets are even stronger as they have had more time to react to the news. At mid-day, the CAC (+6.41%), DAX (+5.31%), and FTSE (+4.48%) are all screaming higher. However, again the rally is widespread, with only small pockets of under-reaction like Denmark (+0.36%) so far today. As of 7:30 am US futures are also pointing to major gaps higher at the open. The DIA is implying a +5.06% gain, the SPY implying a 3.66% gain, and the lockdown technology-heavy QQQ implying only a 0.80% gain at this point.
The only major economic news for Monday are 2 Fed speakers (Harker and 12:20 pm and Mester at 1:30 pm). Major earnings reports include BRKB, HWM, MCD, SPG, and TGNA. Then, after the close IFF, NGL, and OXY report.
The virus, an effective vaccine, hope for more stimulus, and reduced fear of major changes from a split government have combined to make a very positive if volatile, environment for markets. Remember that gaps are gifts and very strong news is almost always tempered by a second thought at least in the short-term. Markets move in the zig-zap motion the vast majority of the time.
It looks like a screaming open today. You will be very tempted to chase, but unless you are already in, strongly consider waiting for some consolidation or pullback. Keep locking in profits and maintain your discipline. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: STAA, UPWK, CDAY, AAPL, SLV, GLD, SWBI. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
As we wait on an election decision, the pandemic infection rate surged over 120,000 new cases on Thursday. One has to wonder, with job growth beginning to slow and more than 21 million Americans still requiring unemployment assistance, can this massive rally be sustained? That’s something to ponder as we head into the weekend, and you plan risk forward. With the Dow having gained more than 2200 points since last Friday’s low, a little profit-taking would not be out of the question.
Asian markets closed the week mixed but mostly higher. European markets are trading lower this morning as they continue to monitor the U.S. election uncertainty. U.S futures currently point to lower open, but as earnings results roll in and the Employment Situation number in focus, anything is possible as we slide toward the weekend.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On this Friday, we have more than 100 companies stepping up to report. Notable reports include LNG, COTY, CVS, ENS, HSY, HMC, MAR, MYL, TU, TM & VIAC.
News & Technicals’
As counting votes continues to drag, and all the lawyers involved, it feels like we’re waiting on the judge decide who gets custody of us in the divorce. While our focus remains on the election results, the pandemic continues to spread rapidly, with more than 120,000 new cases reported yesterday. Even without government-mandated shutdowns, the concern is growing that business impacts could be severe throughout the winter months. Numbers show that job growth is slowing and more than 21 million Americans still requiring unemployment assistance. According to Moody’s report, the U.S. economy is at a high risk of backtracking due to the surge in pandemic numbers. Whoever wins the election will face the formidable challenge of avoiding a double-dip recession.
After rising more than 2200 points from last Friday’s low, the bulls recovered and held the 50-day average, vastly improving the technical picture of all the index charts. That said, the T2122 indicator shows an extreme short-term overbought condition making new long positions very high risk should profit-takers step in to capture gains ahead of the weekend. Currently, futures markets point to a lower open, but as earrings roll in and markets wait on the Employment Situation number, anything is possible.
Thursday saw another major gap up followed by a volatile day that left a significant upper wick (especially in the SPY) as markets gave back part of the gains at the end of the day. The SPY could certainly be seen as a Shooting Star type candle, while the QQQ was an indecisive Spinning Top Thursday. On the day the QQQ was up 2.61%, and both the SPY and DIA up 1.94%. The VXX was down again to 21.97 and T2122 climbed back deep into the overbought territory at 92.34. 10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.765% and Oil (WTI) fell to $38.54/barrel.
Thursday afternoon the FOMC held rates at their near-zero level and said the economy continues to recover but remains well below pre-pandemic levels. Chairman Powell said that the Fed was not out of ammunition and will “remain accommodative” with loan and asset purchasing programs staying in place. He went on to continue urging more fiscal stimulus as pretty much every Fed speaker has done for months.
The election continues to be the main focus of talk and news. As the counts continue, a razor-thin margin has emerged in all the “swing states.” At the moment, it appears like Biden is winning with slight leads in Georgia and Nevada. However, enough votes remain to be counted that half a dozen states are still undetermined. And, of course, this is all before recounts and legal challenges to the validity of major groups of votes play out. All told, the market continues to rally, perhaps on the prospect of a split government with the Administration, Senate and House not all in one party’s hands. However, there is no word yet on the resumption of stimulus negotiations.
On the virus front, we had yet another record high of new cases Thursday (by over 10,000 cases) at 121,888 confirmed. In total, the numbers show we have had 9,926,637 confirmed cases and 241,026 deaths. This record day raised the 7-day average of new cases to 96,454 while the average of daily deaths to 905/day. In fact, the only two states trending down are AL and TN. As a result, more states have tightened mask mandates, imposed new restrictions on gatherings, and extended emergency proclamations. RI issued another stay-at-home advisory.
Globally, the numbers rose to 49,169,894 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,241,870 deaths. This includes a global record day of 608,550 cases and 9,056 deaths, which has led the 7-day average of new cases to 523,344 while the 7-day average virus deaths is now at 7,338/day. Obviously, this means more restrictions, lockdowns, and economic trouble, especially throughout Europe.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green. India (+1.18%), Indonesia (+1.43%), and Malaysia (+1.21%) led the significant gainers. Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-0.77%) was the only significant loser among a handful of moderate losses. In Europe, markets are red across the board so far today. Among the big 3 bourses, DAX is down 0.86%, CAC down 0.71%, and the FTSE flatter at -0.16% as of mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are also pointing to the red side. The DIA is implying a -0.48 open, the SPY implying a -0.67% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.96% open at this point.
The major economic news for Friday includes Oct. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Oct. Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Unemployment Rate, and Oct. Participation Rate (all at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports include AES, CLMT, CQP, LNG, COTY, CVS, DISH, UFS, ELAN, HSY, IEP, MGA, MAR, MYL, PRIM, TU, VTR, and ZBH before the open. There are no major reports after the close.
Election uncertainty remains as does a wild-fire virus. The politicians are still focusing on and/or absorbing the election results. So, stimulus measures are not yet back front and center in Washington. Expect more volatility and remember that this is Friday. After the run of the last few days, we may see more profit-taking and hedging going into the weekend.
Stick with your trading rules and maintain discipline. Keep taking your money when you reach goals and don’t let profits evaporate waiting on “just a little more.” Don’t chase the moves you have missed, follow the trend, and respect those support and resistance levels. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: IVZ, DRI, HCA, IR, TUP, FLR, CFG. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Extraordinary bullishness pushed indexes above their respective 50-day averages yesterday, vastly improving the index charts’ technical picture. However, the extreme price move comes with the significant risk of a dramatic pullback as the pandemic infection rates surge to a new daily record, and hospitalizations reach critical levels in several states. As Italy enters a shutdown, the ECB announced another 150 billion in bond buying, helping boost market around the world this morning.
Asian markets surged overnight following the massive Wall Street rally on Wednesday. European markets are green across the board despite the rising economics of more lockdowns going into effect. The U.S. futures are once again flying high this morning ahead of a massive day of earnings reports and an FOMC rate decision at 2 PM Eastern.
As they continue to count votes is looking more and more like a Biden win is on the way. Still, some are saying we won’t have a definitive decision with multiple legal challenges until late November or early December. However, it looks as if whoever becomes President, the results in the Senate and House point toward gridlock, which the market appears to like gaging by its wildly bullish response yesterday. While everyone focused on election results, the pandemic infection rates soared to a new daily record of more than 100,000. Hospitalizations also surged at an alarming rate, reaching record levels in Missouri, Oklahoma, Iowa, Indiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, and New Mexico. Iowa and Missouri warned the hospital bed capacity could soon become overwhelmed. Senate Leader Mitch McConnell is now suggesting an urgency to come to a stimulus agreement by the end of the year, boosting futures markets. Also helping to boost market sentiment this morning, the ECB injected another 150 billion in bond buying as Italy enters lockdown.
Yesterday’s market surge was extraordinary as the bulls gapped the four major indexes above their respective 50-day morning averages. In a late-day selloff, the DIA drifted back down below it 50-day while the SPY, QQQ, and IWM held on to this key psychological support. Facing our biggest day of earnings reports so far this quarter as well as an FOMC rate decision, we can expect significant price volatility. With the indexes, so extended traders will have to shoulder the substantial risk of pullback to enter long positions. That said, with hopes of a stimulus deal on the horizon, entering short positions also carries substantial risk. Set aside emotion and plan carefully in this very news-driven market.
Wednesday saw a major gap up and some follow-through on relief that the election was behind us. The tech-heavy QQQ that has led the way with a gap-up of almost 3.2%. However, the election has not been concluded as counting continues. Perhaps it was that uncertainty led to a selloff that lasted all afternoon left large upper wicks in the major indices. On the day QQQ gained 4.46%, SPY gained 2.23%, and DIA gained 1.41%. The VXX was down almost 9% to 22.35 and T2122 fell back out of the over-bought territory to 67.48. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.771% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 4% to $39.13/barrel.
The election continues to be the main news. While absentee ballot counting, recounts, and several lawsuits remain to play out, it is now looking like a split government in January. That would greatly impact the ability of a Democratic President to enact their agenda. It would also likely impact the amount and type of stimulus. Nonetheless, regardless of the Presidential election outcome, Senate Majority Leader McConnell has said that stimulus will be the main priority the remainder of this year, but unless something has changed the current Senate objects to anything more than small stimulus, while the market expects a large amount. This all may feed into what the Fed does and says this afternoon.
On the virus front, we had yet another record high of new cases Wednesday with 108,389. The numbers show we now have 9,802,374 confirmed cases and 239,842 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases has reached a record of over 92,702 while another 1,200-death day raised the average daily deaths to 894/day. Even with this a significant proportion of American society refuse to mask, maintain social distance or make additional efforts to wash/disinfect. However, in good news, experts expect any new lockdowns will help lessen the impact of flu season which is also now on us. A single test to identify both Covid and the flu has also been developed.
Globally, the numbers rose to 48,561,473 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,232,955 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases is 516,520 while the 7-day average virus deaths is 7,111/day. Several more European countries reported new record-high new case counts Wednesday, including UK, Germany, France, Poland, Czech Republic, and Russia. Meanwhile, new national lockdowns took effect in the UK and Germany as Italy and Spain both expanded regional quarantines. In Asia, a third-wave of cases has started in India and South Korea has implemented new restrictions in one province.
Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board. Hong Kong (+3.25%), Thailand (+3.43%), and Indonesia (+3.04%) were the big winners, but all major Asian indices were up well over 1%. In Europe, markets are slightly more mixed, but lean heavily to the upside so far today. The FTSE (+0.23%), CAC (+0.92%), and DAX (+1.48%) are all green with Russia (+2.21%) and Denmark (+2.24%) leading gainers. The only three countries in the red are Greece, Belgium, and Norway. As of 7:30am US futures are also pointing to a very positive open. The DIA is implying a +1.35% open, the SPY implying a +1.73% open, and the QQQ implying a +2.58% gain at the open.
The major economic news for Thursday includes Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, and Q3 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am), a Fed Rate Decision and Statement (2 pm) and the FOMC Press Conference (2:30 pm). Major earnings reports include BABA, ABC, ARNC, AZN, AAWW, BLL, GOLD, BCE, BDX, BMY, CNQ, CAH, CNP, CI, CNHI, COMM, CORE, XRAY, DISCA, D, DUK, GM, GLP, HBI, HFC, HII, IRM, KELYA, NXST, NTDOY, ODP, PH, REGN, REZI, TRGP, TEVA, THS, VMC, WCC, WRK, and ZTS all report before the open. Then after the close ADT, AEE, AIG, BKNG, BFH, CZR, CNDT, ED, BAP, CWK, DXC, EOG, FLS, HLF, MTD, MNST, NWSA, PBA, PFSI, RGA, RSG, SRE, SWX, SQ, TMUS, TDS, TSE, UBER, USM, and XPO report.
As the election count winds down, markets are loving the certainty that will bring. The market seems to believe that protracted lawsuits will not have an effect on future direction. Stimulus, the virus, and earnings are back at center stage now. Just be aware that the Fed does have a limit to what they can do this afternoon, but certainly nobody is expecting any tightening or ending of Fed bailout loan programs. So, while short-term volatility in likely to continue, the market seems happy to have the election (mostly) in the rearview mirror.
Remember to follow your rules and maintain discipline, Take your money when you reach goals and don’t let profits evaporate waiting to bag “just a little more.” Follow the trend, don’t chase moves you have missed and respect both support/resistance and your stops. (Bear in mind that a $100 loss looks great when you now have a $1000 loss.)
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AAPL, ENPH, ABBV, MSFT, RIG, FAS, IDXX, DVN. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
With the Whitehouse battle likely to extend for days and the Congressional bodies remaining in mixed party control, uncertainty and the challenging price volatility are likely here to stay. What does this mean for the hoped-for stimulus package? Will the Presidential election become a long drawn out market damaging court battle? A lot for investors to ponder as we now wait on an FOMC rate decision Thursday afternoon. Expect considerable sensitivity to news events as the market tests price and technical resistance levels in the index charts.
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher in a volatile session as the monitored polling results. European markets are trading with modest gains across the board this morning. After a night of wild price swing, U.S. Futures are trying to remain bullish ahead of earnings and the beginning of the 2-day FOMC meeting. I think it fair to say anything is possible, so remain focused and flexible.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the post-election hump day, we have just under 90 companies fessing up to quarterly results. Notable reports include ALB, ALL, AWK, APA, FUN, CXW, CRY, DCP, DK, ET, EPR, EXPE, EXR, FIT, GDDY, GDOT, HST, H, JKHY, KGC, LC, LBTYA, MRO, MTCH, MELI, MET, NUS, OUT, PAAS, PAYC, PRGO, PSA, QCOM, SGMS, UMH, UPWK, VOYA, WEN, & ZNGA.
News & Technicals’
Yesterday’s colossal rally was one of the best election day performance in stock market history. Overnight futures have seen considerable volatility as the Presidential election is close to call, and election officials suggest it may take several more days to count up the results. Last night was a much different result than many thought as the republicans gained seats in the House and held onto control in the Senate. The House will remain under Democratic control setting up a challenging environment for whoever occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. In a late-night speech, President Trump suggested a supreme court battle election battle is on the horizon. I suspect a court contested election battle will keep the market on edge and the price volatility high in the days and possibly weeks ahead. As we wait, the market will turn its attention toward the FOMC meeting that begins today with their rate decision scheduled for Thursday afternoon. In other news, several states voted to legalize the recreational use of marijuana, and Florida voted to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour.
In just 3-trading days, the Dow has rallied more than 1300 points off the Friday lows, taking the T2122 indicator from an oversold condition that now suggests an overbought condition. With control of the Congressional body’s mixed, there remains considerable uncertainty about the likely stimulus plan’s size that will keep the market guessing. An uncertainty that’s likely to extend as long or longer than the battle for the WhiteHouse. The VIX closing above a 35 handle even as the indexes lept higher price action is likely to remain challenging as the indexes challenge technical resistance levels in the charts.
Tuesday saw a gap higher and a generally bullish day although a selloff at the end of the day left large upper wicks in all 3 major indices. On the day, DIA was up 2.02%, SPY up 1.73%, and QQQ up 1.73% also. The VXX fell 5.5% to 24.51 and T2122 bolted up well into the overbought territory at 89.22. 10-year bond yield spiked to 0.892% (a big move up for bonds) and Oil (WTI) climbed nearly 3% to $37.84/barrel.
The entire world (obviously including markets) were focused on the US election, large voter turnout, and how the counting process will go. As predicted, Trump both claimed victory and fraud as he promised to go to the Supreme Court to stop vote counting. However, short of banana republic tactics, the outcome of the voting in many states may not be known for at least days and court proceedings about the validity or suppression of many of those votes could last weeks. Markets, which had been heading up steeply early in the evening have pulled back and diverged sharply on this situation.
On the virus front, we had yet another day of well over 90,000 new cases as the 5 highest case count days have all been recorded in the last week. The numbers show we now have 9,694,176 confirmed cases and 238,656 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases has reached a record of over 88,915 while another 1,200-death day raised the average daily deaths to 871/day. 36 states are trending the wrong way with only 5 (AL, HI, LA, TN, and VT) showing a reduction in cases. Hospitalizations are also up sharply, particularly in the Midwest. Meanwhile, in TX, the state Atty. General filed injunctions to stop a city (El Paso) from implementing local lockdown measures. At the same time, El Paso is down to using its civic center as a field hospital and is using 4 mobile morgues (cold storage) brought in help handle overwhelmed facilities.
Globally, the numbers rose to 47,428,861 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,213,224 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases is just over 500,000 while the 7-day average virus deaths is 6,663/day. Much of Europe (especially the most economically dynamic portions of the continent) is now under lockdown again as they try to save their healthcare system.
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly modestly green. Only Japan (+1.72%) and Taiwan (+1.04%) had significant moves to the upside, while only Indonesia (-1.05%) had a significant move down. In Europe so far today, Portugal (-1.24%) is the outlier as the rest of the continent is modestly green. The FTSE (+0.42%), DAX (+0.34%), and CAC (+0.68%) are more or less typical across the continent. As of 7:30am US futures (that had been significantly up) are now positive, but widely missed. The DIA is implying a 0.13% gain, the SPY implying a 0.91% gain, and the QQQ implying a 2.67% gain at the open.
The major economic news for Wednesday includes ADP Nonfarm Payroll (8:15 am), Imports/Exports and Trade Balance (8:30 am), Oct. Services PMI (9:45 am), Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). In major earnings, we will see CLH, ES, HLT, PSN, PFGC, SMG, TA, and VRT report before the open. Then after the close ALL, UHAL, AWK, APA, EQH, BKD, CF, CTVA, DCP, ET, ENLC, EXPE, FNF, GFL, GDDY, HOLX, LNC, LUMN, MELI, OLN, PXD, PRAH, PSA, QRVO, QRTEA, STN, SUN, TRMB, and UNVR report.
Just as on Tuesday, the raging virus, the election, and earnings (or more importantly future guidance) are the main drivers of the market today. While volatility is sure to remain high as the election count drags on and lawsuits begin delegitimizing results. However, there remains palpable relief that the election will finally be “over.” The next question the market will ask is when will the lame-duck government get back to delivering more stimulus? So, expect more volatility in the short-term, but maybe, just maybe there is some light at the end of this tunnel.
With this turmoil still in place, you have to decide whether there has been enough closure to reduce risk enough for you to get back into the election. Be careful, nimble, and bear in mind you don’t have to trade every day or even week. Lock-in profits whenever you can and maintain your discipline. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ALGN, MPC, PINS, PNR, CRBP, TXN, FEYE. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
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🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
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