After setting the 35th record high in the SP-500 this year, all eyes will turn their attention to the Employment Situation number released an hour before today’s open. Analysts estimates target 702,000 new jobs and a 5.6% unemployment rate as companies rush to fill open positions. After the reaction to the data, don’t be surprised if the volume quickly declines and price action becomes light and choppy as computers shut down and fireworks begin to light up for the 3-day weekend.
Overnight Asian markets traded mixed with Hong Kong falling 1.80% by the close. Across the pond, European indexes cautiously inch higher this morning, waiting on the U.S jobs data. With bullish anticipation, U.S. futures try to inspire more buying as they trade with modest gains across the board. I wish you all a safe and wonderful weekend as we celebrate Independence Day. Let’s all take a moment to reflect on the sacrifices of those that came before us to win our freedom and those standing in harm’s way today protecting us and ensuring that blessing!
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
The Friday calendar is a light one with just five listed companies and only one verified report coming from WTER, which is not particularly notable unless you happen to own the small-cap stock.
News & Technicals’
According to reports, a new Tesla Model S Plaid caught fire while operating with the driver behind the wheel. Apparently, the driver noticed smoke coming from the rear of the car and had to force his way out of the vehicle because the locks malfunctioned. The fire required two firefighter crews more than three hours to put the fire out. Billions of venture capital dollars flowed into online grocery start-ups in 2021, attempting rapid delivery services. With more than $10 billion invested in all the start-ups, some suggest the sector is now overcrowded. We have a new space race underway with Richard Branson aiming to beat Jeff Bezos to space with plans to launch his own Blue Origin rocket on July 20th with himself aboard. Micron CEO sees immense growth ahead for semiconductors as electric vehicles become what he called ‘data centers on wheels.’
Today is all about the Employment Situation report with analysts targets of 702,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate falling to 5.6%. The question to be answered is if that will keep the bulls engaged, or will the bears see that as a sign of an overheating economy? There is no doubt that the bulls are in control, with the SP-500 setting its 35th record high this year! With the FOMC continuing to print, the melt-up continues even as the Absolute Breadth Index continues to decline. A growing number of analysts and large investors warn of a substantial correction, so don’t become complacent but stay with the trend as long as it lasts. After we get past today’s reaction to the jobs, data volume is likely to drop like a rock as everyone’s attention will turn toward the 3-day weekend. I wish you all a safe and happy 4th of July!
Markets opened essentially flat Thursday, with a sideways grind that followed showing a slight uptrend in the large-caps. All 3 of the major indices closed near the highs of the day. The QQQ printed a sort of Spinning Top or Doji, while the DIA printed a sort of Hanging Man candle, and the SPY printed a strong white almost Marubozu. On the day, SPY gained 0.57% (to close at another all-time high close), DIA gained 0.41% (now less than half a percent below the all-time high close), and QQQ gained 0.04%. The VXX fell 1.5% to 28.99 and T2122 jumped higher, but remains just outside the overbought territory at 75. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.466% and Oil (WTI) gained over 2% to $74.96.
During the day, Treasury Sec. Yellen announced that 130 countries have agreed to the Biden Administration proposal of a global minimum corporate tax of at least 15%. It was not announced whether low-tax havens such as Ireland have come around. However, this momentum could have large repercussions for stocks, as many of the stock market names pay far less than the proposed minimum. For example, AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOG, NFLX, BA, INTC, PFE, GM, and many others pay far less than even the bottom (15%) number being discussed.
Most of the major car makers reported Q2 sales Thursday. GM reported a 40% increase year-on-year and a 7% increase from Q1. This was a little shy of analyst expectations. TM saw a 73% increase year-on-year and a 14% increase from Q1, which was above estimates. This marks the first time ever the Toyota has outsold GM for a quarter. F will report their numbers today. The question then will be whether F retains the crown as the best-selling automaker in the US.
In miscellaneous stock news, SPCE has bumped up its launch date for its first passenger flight into space to July 11. (The idea is for Richard Branson to beat Jeff Bezos to become the first civilian in space.) SPCE is soaring in premarket on the news. Despite Wednesday’s record fine, Robinhood has filed for an IPO and will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker HOOD.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again, with China showing huge moves to the downside relative to a muted rest of the region. Shenzhen (-2.45%), Shanghai (-1.95%), and Hong Kong (-1.80%) were outliers to the downside as the rest of the region saw modest moves in either direction. In Europe, markets are green except for a could small outliers (Greece and Denmark). However, this is also on modest moves as the world waits on US Payroll data. The FTSE (+0.18%), DAX (+0.37%), and CAC (+0.07%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to an open on the green side of flat an hour. The DIA is implying a +0.05% open, the SPY implying a +0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.19% open at this hour. In addition, 10-year bond yields are down to 1.446%, the dollar is slightly positive, and commodities are mostly in the green in front of the big data dump.
Major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Jun Avg, Hourly Earnings, Jun Nonfarm Payrolls, Jun Participation Rate, Jun Unemployment Rate, and May Trade Balance (all at 8:30 am), and May Factory Orders (10 am). There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.
The big Payroll data is likely to call the tune for Mr. Market this morning. Economists are expecting that 706k jobs were added, that unemployment fell to 5.6% , and that average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in June. We’ll have to see how close to the mark those forecasts end up being. The trend remains positive, but it is looking weary. (Or is it just resting in the climb?). Regardless, in front of a long weekend, it might be wise to take profits, move stops, lighten up, and/or put hedges in place. Trade smart, it’s your money whether you hold the cash or leave the bet on the table.
Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. The odds favor following the trend and, as always, respect both support and resistance levels. However, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Keep taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, book those singles and doubles. Base hits win championships, not the occasional home run.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: HES, CTLT, BYD, FB, BOX, GRWG, FOLD. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Though the DIA has struggled as the weakest index of late, the bulls went to work yesterday defending its 50-day average, and the technical picture improves. Big tech continues to dominate with the SPY, closing at its 34th record high of the year. The Absolute Breadth Index shows a substantial divergence from the indexes and suggests we stay focused and avoid complacency. However, stay with the bullish trend as long as this buying frenzy continues.
Asian markets traded in the red across the board overnight as a private survey shows Chinese factory activity slowed in June. European markets trade mixed but near the flatline this morning as they wait on the jobs data. U.S. futures are trying to kick off the second have of the year bullishly as we wait on Jobless Claims, PMI, ISM, & Construction Spending numbers.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have a light day on the earnings calendar as we begin the 3rd quarter with just 11 companies listed on the earnings calendar with several unconfirmed. Notable reports include WBA, AYI, &MKC.
News and Technicals’
As China celebrates the anniversary of its Communist regime, it will not accept sanctimonious preaching from others. FINRA said it fined Robinhood $57 million and ordered the stock trading app to pay nearly $13 million in restitution to thousands of clients. FINRA considered the widespread and significant harm suffered by customers, including millions of customers who received false or misleading information from the firm. Due to semiconductor shortages, analysts estimate automakers sold about 4.5 million vehicles in the second quarter as signs of a slowdown continue. Treasury yields are slightly higher this morning ahead of the Jobless claims, with the 10-year trading up to 1.475% and the 30-year advancing to 2.101% early this morning.
The technical picture of the indexes continues to improve, with the bulls defending the 50-day average as support on the DIA. Although the QQQ suffered a little selling, the index remains exceeding strong, as is the SPY, with the tech giants leading the way. That said, momentum continues to be a bit of a concern, with more stocks stuck slipping sideways down than those moving bullishly as the Absolute Breadth Index declines as the indexes push upward. This glaring divergence may mean nothing, but it should serve as a warning not to overtrade or become complacent if the bulls stumble or simply run out of energy. However, until that occurs, stay with the trend and ride this buying frenzy as long as it lasts. Remember, as you plan forward, we have a three-day weekend ahead, and volumes could become light, and price action could become choppy rather quickly after economic data releases as traders hit the road to celebrate the 4th.
Markets opened flat on Wednesday as we saw another sideways grind all day in the SPY and QQQ. The DIA did similar, but managed a slightly positive trend to its grind. This action left us with a Doji Harami in the QQQ, a small Bullish Engulfing with upper wick in the SPY, and a larger Bullish Engulfing in the DIA. On the day, DIA gained 0.60%, SPY gained 0.09% (to a new all-time high close), and QQQ lost 0.16%. It is worth noting that all the major indices closed Q2 at or very near all-time highs The VXX fell a percent to 29.46 and T2122 rose slightly to 44.12 (still in the mid-range). 10-year bond yields fell to 1.465% and Oil (WTI) gained a tad to $73.51/barrel.
In economic news, ADP Nonfarm Employment came in almost 100,000 higher than expected. However, it was the May Pending Home Sales that was the big news. It had been forecast to fall almost 1%, but came in up 8.0%. That massive beat was very unexpected and may inform the much lower than expected mortgage demand recently. In short, the sales may have already been booked in April and May.
During the day Wednesday, Robinhood was fined a record $70 million by FINRA. This covered $57 million for misleading advertising and another $13 million in restitution to customers for outages that prevented them from exiting trades. Other news during the day included F announcing that it was cutting production in 8 North American plans (6 in the US) for various periods starting next week and lasting at least into August. The cause of the shutdown was a lack of semiconductor chips for F-1150, Bronco, Mustang, and Explorer models.
The major automakers report their Q2 sales today (at unscheduled times). The lone exception is F, which will report the same information Friday. Analysts are expecting to see a 52% year-on-year increase in sales. This would bring Q2 sales totals to 4.5 million vehicles, despite the factory shutdowns and incomplete assembly caused by the global chip shortage.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red side on modest moves. Shenzhen (-0.81%), Australia (-0.65%), and Hong Kong (-0.57%) paced the losses. In Europe markets are also mixed, but lean to the green side as of mid-day, also on relatively small moves. The FTSE (+0.45%), DAX (-0.14%), and CAC (-0.03%) are a good indication of European range. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a dead flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.07% open, the SPY implying a +0.021% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.18% open. In addition, 10-year bond rates are moved up with some strength overnight, now at 1.48%. This comes amid Dollar weakness, which is also helping commodities.
Major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am), Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), and ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AYI, MKC, and WBA before the open. There are no earnings releases scheduled for after the close
With the Dollar falling and both interest rate and commodity prices rising early, the stock market may rediscover some inflation fear today. For example, Crude is back to 2018 levels ($75/barrel). While most of the reallocation trade is done, there may be some retail trader shuffling still to do. So, keep an eye on rotation again. That said, the trend is still decidedly bullish, if a bit weary at this point.
Keep taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. Follow those trading rules and stick to the trade plan. The odds favor following the trend and, as always, respect both support and resistance levels. However, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, book those singles and doubles. Base hits win championships, not the occasional home run. So, don’t try to stretch things and get burnt in the process.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: XPEV, OXY, BP, ERX, AR, XOM, TSLA, IQ, JMIA, RIOT, MARA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
With a mighty shove by the tech giants, the SP-500 solidified a new record high for the 33rd time this year, with the QQQ set new closing records as well. Unfortunately, most of the move was again encapsulated in the morning gap as we spent the rest of the day choppy sideways in a narrow range. As the 2nd quarter comes to an end, watch for the possible end-of quarter-window dressing with jobs data in focus for the rest of the week.
Overnight Asian markets traded mixed in a choppy session. European markets trade with modest declines across the board this morning as inflation and the rising delta variant become widespread on the continent. Ahead of earnings and economic data, futures point to a modestly lower open as we wait on private payroll data. As you plan forward, keep in mind the Employment Situation number Friday morning and the upcoming 3-day holiday weekend that could see declining volumes.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
As we finish up the 2nd quarter, we have 11 companies listed on the earnings calendar, with a few that are not verified. Notable reports include BBBY, MU, STX, FC, GIS, and SJR.
News & Technicals’
On this last trading day of June and the end of the 2nd quarter jobs, data will come into focus for the rest of the week. Warren Buffett is one of the only big investors to recognize the highly uneven impact on small businesses during the pandemic. Bailouts and massive amounts of federal money flowed to big businesses while the small on-street business was primarily ignored as regulators forced their closure. There have been calls to ban British visitors into the U.K. in order to stop the spread of the delta variant that is already widespread on the continent. HSBC says Asia faces a‘ bumpy road’ ahead as Covid cases remain high. Still, vaccine rollouts offer hope as countries like India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Nepal continue to deal with elevated infection rates. Treasury yields are moving lower this morning, with the 10-year down slightly to 1.475% and the 30-year dipping to 2.087%.
For the 33rd time this year, the SP-500 closed at a new record high, with tech giants proving the majority of the lift. But, of course, the QQQ also set a new record while the DIA and IWM turned slightly lower but holding on to crucial technical support levels. The next three days’ jobs data will keep traders and investors on their toes and guess if the results will continue to support these high prices. The SP-500 P/E ratio is now 89% above its historical 10-year average, and one has to wonder just how high can we go with the Fed keeping the stimulus pipeline continuing to pump out 120 billion per month. Futures trade slightly lower this morning with ADP, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, and Petroleum Status number on deck. Please don’t rule out the possibility of the end-of-quarter window dressing and plan your risk carefully as we slide toward the Employment Situation number and the holiday shutdown.
Markets opened basically flat on Tuesday (the DIA did gap a third of a percent higher) and then the 3 major indices ground sideways with a slight trend. As a result, SPY printed a Doji (but at a new all-time high close), the DIA printed a black inside candle closing near the low with an upper wick, and the QQQ printed another nice white candle closing at the highs and at a new all-time high close. Semiconductors led the QQQ higher as SWKS, XLNX, AMD, CRUS, AAPL, QCOM, and AVGO all put in stellar sessions. On the day large-caps closed basically flat, as the SPY gained 0.05%, the DIA gained 0.02%, and QQQ gained 0.36%. The VXX gained 2% to 29.77 and T2122 fell again to 34.97. 10-year bond yields fell a bit to 1.475% and Oil (TWI) gained about three-quarters of a percent to $73.44/barrel.
CNBC reported this morning that Fed data released today indicates that markets may be past their peak level of inflation fear. The data (pulled from FRED by analysts) reinforces Fed member positions that inflation is likely transient and not structural. Specifically, the analysis looked at the 5-year break-even inflation rate (now at 2.45%) and the 10-year break-even rate (now 2.33%). (The break-even rate is the difference between the treasury yields and inflation-indexed bonds for a given period.) This tells us bond traders now anticipate inflation to be falling in a longer timeframe, despite it rising in the short term. Clearly, this is not gospel, but maybe an indication that stocks will continue to be attractive as longer-term safety trades can’t compete on return.
Home prices surged in April according to the Case-Shiller Price Index. The gained was 13.3% month-on-month and 14.6% year-on-year. This was the biggest gain in home prices in 30 years. While this does represent an increase in the value of the major asset of many American families, as with any average the gains were uneven. High-end homes saw the biggest gains while lower-end home prices saw single-digit gains. Charlotte NC, Cleveland OH, Dallas TX, Denver CO, and Seattle WA all saw their largest ever annual gains. However, data out this morning shows that mortgage demand fell 7% this week (and 17% from one year ago) as 30-year interest rates rise.
After the close Tuesday, RCL announced that any passengers sailing from US ports without being fully-vaccinated, will be required to have travel insurance. FL passed a law that exempts itself from this as of January 1, 2022, leaving the insurance burden on cruise operators for ships leaving their ports.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side. Shenzhen (+1.08%) and Singapore (+1.33%) led to the upside. Meanwhile, Malaysia (-1.01%) and Hong Kong (-0.57%) paced the losses. However, in Europe markets are decidedly in the red as of early afternoon. The FTSE (-0.59%), DAX (-0.93%), and CAC (-0.75%) are good indicators of the rest of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a dead flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.02% open, the SPY implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.01% open. In addition, 10-year bond rates are moving significantly lower, now at 1.454%.
Major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), May Pending Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and a Fed Speaker (Bostic at 8 am). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BBBY, STZ, GIS, and SCHN before the open. Then after the close, MU and YUMC report.
Interest rates came down overnight, but Oil and Nat Gas prices surged, even as the dollar is a bit stronger. However, yesterday’s gains were not widespread as only two of the 10 major sectors were in the green (technology, of course, and Consumer Cyclical). So, markets are showing signs of being wary at these levels. Be careful, but it’s hard to fight a bullish trend until it breaks.
Keep taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. Follow those trading rules, don’t chase, and stick to the trade plan. The odds favor following the trend and, as always, respect both support and resistance levels. However, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, book those singles and doubles. Base hits win championships, not the occasional home run. So, don’t try to stretch things and get burnt in the process.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PLUG, UCO, NOK, KOPN, DPZ, XBI, RKT, UBER, SQ, INO, AI, APPS, QS, RIDE, BABA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Monday saw the large caps open flat and the QQQ gap four-tenths of a percent higher. The SPY and DIA then sold off before grinding sideways. However, a court ruling led FB to rocket higher in the afternoon, and both the QQQ and SPY followed. This left the SPY printing a potential Hanging Man signal (at another all-time high close), the QQQ printing a strong Bullish Kicker (also settling at a new all-time high close), and the DIA lagged printing an ugly black candle, but perhaps finding some support as it closed up off the lows of the day. On the day, QQQ gained 1.20%, SPY gained 0.20%, and DIA lost 0.48%. The VXX was flat at 29.17 and T2122 fell even further to 40.10 (diverging from the SPY and QQQ). 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 1.478% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.6% to $72.84/barrel.
As mentioned, a Federal Judge ruled in favor of FB, over-ruling a lower court and throwing out an antitrust case that had been brought by the FTC and 48 state AGs. The case had been set to force FB to divest of Instagram and WhatsApp. However, the judge ruled that despite lower court rulings, the FTC had not proven FB had or was maintaining a monopoly through anticompetitive means. FB closed above a $1 trillion valuation after gaining almost 4.2% on the day.
Late in the day, Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas put out a statement saying that Federal prohibitions against marijuana sales and distribution may be outdated and in need of revisiting. Coming from a supposedly staunchly conservative Justice, this may signal a slightly more progressive shift in the court. The statement came as the court declined to hear a case about the Federal tax deductions of a Colorado medical marijuana dispensary. While cannabis stocks did not pop on the news, this could have longer-term implications for pot names like GRWG, ACB, CARA, CRON, and HEXO.
In stock news, early this morning UAL announced they have placed their largest order ever, including some 270-plane orders. This includes 200 “narrow body” jets from BA and 70 Airbus 320 wide-body planes. UAL also announced it expects to hire 25,000 new employees to service the planes, including flight crews, mechanics, and other ground crew. Interestingly for BA, this comes less than a day after the FAA had told the company that its newest 777X jet would not get approval to fly until mid or late 2023.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned heavily to the red side. Shenzhen (-0.99%), Shanghai (-0.92%), and Hong Kong (-0.94%) paced the losses. Meanwhile, Thailand (+0.78%) was the lone exchange that was significantly green. In Europe, markets are leaning to the green side as of the early afternoon. The FTSE (+0.30%), DAX (+0.88%), and CAC (+0.44%) lead the gainers with Greece (-1.04%) and Russia (-0.95%) as outliers to the downside. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat and mixed open. The DIA is implying a +0.13% open, the SPY implying a -0.05% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.11% open at this hour.
The only major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am). There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.
The dollar has been surging overnight. Of course, this means most commodities are down proportionately. Natural gas (+1.48%) is the major exception. However, with markets waiting on employment data later this week, there seems to be uncertainty in the stock market. It is absolutely true that the tech-led reflation trade led the bulls higher in the QQQ Monday. However, large-cap traders seem far less certain at these lofty heights. We also have to consider quarter-end rebalancing and window dressing as possibilities as the funds prepare for their Q2 statements. The bulls still have the trend in their favor, but things are looking a little extended or tired outside the Nasdaq. So, be cautious and watch for signs of rotation or reversal.
Keep locking in profits, moving your stops, and maintaining discipline. Follow your trading rules, don’t chase, and stick to the trade plan. The odds favor following the trend and, as always, respect both support and resistance levels. However, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, takes those singles and doubles…don’t try to stretch things and get burnt in the process.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CRON, YOLO, NOK, QS, PLUG, DPZ, RIDE, NIO, JD, SQ, BABA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
With last week’s strong bullish performance, the Dow finally pushed through its 50-day average, rising more than 1100 points in just 5-trading days. It will not be interesting how it deals with its downtrend resistance as the SPY and QQQ push for more records with big tech leading the way. As we slide toward the end of the quarter and the 4th of July holiday, can the bulls keep up the pace, or will they need a rest this week? Logic would say yes, but in this all-or-nothing high emotion market, I’m not sure logic applies. Stay with the trend all long as it continues but avoid complacency in this very stretched condition.
Asian markets saw red across the board overnight though the losses were modest. European markets are also showing modest declines across the board as the rise in pandemic infections weigh on sentiment. Ahead of a light day, earnings and economic data futures indicate a mixed but modest open as we slide toward the end of the 2nd quarter.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have a light day on the earnings calendar with just four verified reports to kick off the week. The only somewhat notable report is MLHR.
News & Technicals’
Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority said that Binance Markets Limited “is not permitted to undertake any regulated activity in the U.K.” It’s the latest sign of a growing crackdown on the crypto market from regulators around the world. After losing a confidence vote in parliament on June 21 after the left party withdrew its support, the Swedish prime minister resigned after losing a confidence vote in parliament. The 10-year treasury is easing slightly this morning, declining to 1.516% and the 30-year slipping to 2.143%. U.S. Senator Rob Portman, R-Ohio, said Sunday that the bipartisan infrastructure deal could move forward, following President Joe Biden’s clarification that he’ll sign the bill even if it comes without a reconciliation package. The president last week said that he would refuse to sign the deal unless the two bills came in tandem, a remark that angered and surprised Republican lawmakers.
After rising more than 1100 points in last week’s bullish surge, the Dow recovered its 50-day average and is now testing its downtrend as resistance. The rally led by strong bullishness big tech seems unconcerned about inflationary pressures, supply chain challenges, and antitrust efforts in Europe and those moving forward in the U.S. Though technically a bit stretched out, the trends in the SPY and QQQ showed no signs of slowing down by the close on Friday. After such a strong bull run, one has to wonder, can it continue this week, or will we need a little rest or even a profit pullback to check support levels. We have a light earings calendar as we slide toward the end of the 2nd quarter, with not much on the economic calendar to begin the week to inspire. Moreover, it is possible by mid-week that volumes may begin to decline as trader extend their 4th of July holiday.
Friday saw another gap up (half a percent in the DIA), but then the large caps waffled sideways the rest of the day. Meanwhile, the QQQ faded the gap (sold off a bit) before starting its sideways grind the rest of the day. The big banks led the way as a group as investors fought tooth and nail to get in before the post-stress-test dividend increases and buyback programs get announced. SPY printed another new all-time high close as both the DIA and SPY printed Spinning Top type small candles. However, the QQQ printed a Bearish Engulfing of a Shooting Star Doji. On the day, SPY gained 0.35%, DIA gained 0.72%, and the QQQ lost 0.12%. The VXX fell almost 2% to 29.19 and T2122 fell back out of the overbought territory, now at 76.61. 10-year bond yields rose significantly to 1.526% as the Fed-favorite PCE Price Index came in hot and Oil (WTI) was up 1% to $73.98/barrel.
On Saturday, JNJ agreed to halt the sales of opioids across the US as well as to pay a small $260 million settlement with NY state. China also announced that it is forcing TSLA to recall 300,000 Model 3 and Model Y cars related to assisted-driving software. However, this would be a remote “software push” recall and not require cars to be physically returned to dealers. The AAPL streaming video service (Apple TV+, which competes with DIS and NFLX) will start facing a test this week. Up to now, the service has offered as a free 12-month trial with other purchases. However, this will change to a 3-mo. Trial as of Thursday and the first users to have taken the trial will start to be billed $4.99/month.
In the cryptocurrency world this weekend, governments made another move to keep control over currencies. On Sunday, the UK Financial Conduct Authority warned UK consumers and banned the largest crypto exchange (Binance) from doing business in the UK. The exchange has until Wednesday to confirm that it has removed all of its advertising and promotions from UK jurisdiction. Bitcoin held at $33,227 (as of noon Sunday) after the announcement was made. Bloomberg reported that at least one major industry analyst saw this as a positive move, adding that more regulation is a signal that crypto is a more mature and safer asset class…which will draw in more investors.
More clarity has been revealed about the latest investigations GOOG faces from the EU. This time the EU is focused on the GOOG ad network, data collection, and distribution, and the way ads are targeted to users on the YouTube platform. Specifically, the EU is investigating Google Ad Manager, the algorithm used to display ads, the way GOOG rivals’ ads were served to viewers, and whether GOOG used data on those ads for their benefit. In other words, whether the competitor’s ad response data was used by GOOG for competitive advantage and whether rival ads were served on a fair playing ground compared to GOOG’s own product ads. The key “rivals” mentioned here are AAPL, FB, and MSFT.
Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side on modest moves following the release of bad Chinese Industrial data. Oddly, Shenzhen (+0.98%) was the sole significant winner, while Indonesia (-1.38%), Malaysia (-0.96%) were outliers to the downside among generally small red numbers across the region. In Europe, markets are also leaning to the downside on somewhat larger moves. The FTSE (-0.51%), DAX (-0.15%), and CAC (-0.49%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed, flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.05% open, the SPY is implying a +0.05% open and the QQQ is implying a slightly stronger +0.27% open.
There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday. However, Fed member Williams speaks at 9 am. There are also no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.
10-year bond yields are down in premarket, but holding 1.51%. This came after losses in Asia over data released showed that May Chinese industial profits were down both from April and a year earlier. As the quarter comes to an end Wednesday, markets may also be experiencing some rebalancing and window dressing as funds prepare for their Q2 statements. The bulls have the trends in their favor, but the DIA still faces resistance overhead and the other two major indices seem hesitant to rip higher. So, be cautious and watch for signs of rotation or reversal.
The odds favor following the trend, but also respecting both support and resistance levels. However, all trends reverse at some point and every S/R level is breached eventually. So, don’t just assume trend, support, or resistance will always hold. Keep locking in profits, moving your stops, and maintaining discipline. Follow your trading rules, don’t chase, and stick to the trade plan. Remember that consistency is the key to long-term trading success.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TLRY, IT, RKT, FSLY, NNOX, NVDA, LEN, PSA, QCOM, PLUG, HD, ALXN, XOM, NOK. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
A deal on infrastructure and another Trillion in deficit spending inspired the bulls to record highs in the SPY and QQQ, with the technicals in the DIA and IWM continuing to improve. After the bell, the big banks all passed their stress tests, and blowout earnings from NKE continued to inspire buyers in the overnight futures session. Assuming we get past the pesky inflation data coming out before the bell, it looks like we can bullishly party on right into the weekend.
Asian markets closed green across the board, lead by the HSI, which surged 1.40% by the close. Across the pond, European markets trade mixed with inflation worries and fears of tapering raising caution. However, U.S. markets don’t seem to at concerned about inflation, pointing to a bullish open ahead of key inflation data. After such a strong recovery rally, don’t forget to take some profits as we slide into the weekend.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Friday earnings calendar, we have a total of 16 companies listed, with just six verified reports. Notable reports include KMX, JKS, & PA.
News and Techinicals’
The big banks get clean bill health after all passing their stress tests as expected, with the FOMC continuing to push 120 billion a month. A bipartisan Senate group agreed on an infrastructure bill totaling nearly $1 Trillion without a plan to pay for it other than printing more money. The market surged high on this news because there is nothing this market likes more than deficit spending. It makes you wonder if they will be as inspired when it comes time to pay the piper? According to the National Association of Manufacturers, supply chain disruptions and inflated prices are not diminishing due to workforce shortages, and demand exceeds supply. Hackers are now attacking PC gamers with the malware “Crackonosh” hidden in free versions of games. Once installed, it hijacks the computer’s processing power to mine cryptocurrencies for the hackers. The 10-year Treasury yields edge higher this morning ahead of inflation data, trading this morning at 1.489%, with the 30-year dipping slightly to 2.093%.
Yesterday’s big gap up at the open quickly lost momentum until the announcement of another trillion of deficit spending was on the way for infrastructure. For now, deficit spending is like stock market crack, and we can’t seem to get enough these days. New records in the SPY and QQQ and the technicals continued to improve in the DIA and IWM. After the bell, the banks passed their stress tests, continuing to inspire the bulls in the overnight futures session with the DIA set to recover its 50-day on the opening gap. There is just one hurdle to cross this morning on inflation with the Personal Income and Outlays report before the bell. If there is no stumble there, a bullish push to close the week strong looks very likely. Party on!
