Markets shrugged off the CPI data and gapped higher at the open as the bull desperately tried to follow through on the prior two up days. However, after the gap, we saw whipsaw action that ended near where it opened.  This gave us indecisive black Doji-type candles sitting at or just above the T-line in all 3 major indices.  (Not what I would call clearly breaking any T-line resistance.) On the day, SPY gained 0.31%, DIA gained 0.16%, and QQQ gained 0.44%.  The VXX fell a percent to 17.63 and T2122 remains in the overbought territory at 82.13.  10-year bond yields fell to 1.739% and Oil (WTI) jumped another 1.91% to $82.78/barrel.

As mentioned, before the open the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released.  It came in a +7.0%, which was right in line with consensus forecasts and was the highest since 1982.  However, the last couple of days talking-heads on the various financial media outlets had been preparing traders for an even higher print.  So, apparently, the market took “in-line, at many-decade highs” as good news.  Later in the morning, crude oil inventories came in down significantly more than expected (-4.55million barrels vs -1.9million barrels est.), which was at least part of the reason for Oil price spikes on the day.

In a follow-up to last year’s Texas electricity crisis, Bloomberg reports there still appear to be problems.  At the start of the year (starting January 2), a cold snap caused the state to lose over 1.3 gigawatts of electric generation.  The losses were related to cold and specifically to their natural gas-fueled power plants.  This lost capacity caused short-term blackouts in areas of the state as the peak demand exceeded capacity by 2.4%.  Since Texas is not connected to the national electrical grids, the state is unable to pull the needed shortfall from other regions of the country. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again.  Shenzhen (-1.96%), Shanghai (-1.17%), and Japan (-0.96%) were the main losses.  Meanwhile, the rest of the region was green, but only on modest moves.  In Europe, stocks are leaning to the downside on modest moves (with the exception of Russia (-2.25%) at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.06%), DAX (-0.02%), and CAC (-0.61%) lead the region lower, but half a dozen of the smaller exchanges are green by half of a percent or less in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open.  The DIA implies a +0.12% open, the SPY is implying a +0.06% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.06% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are moving higher again to 1.746% and Oil (WTI) is down slightly in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Thursday is limited to Dec. PPI and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am).  However, there is also a Fed speaker (Brainard testifies before her nomination hearing for the Fed Vice-Chair position at 10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the market is limited to TSM and DAL.  There are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

Markets seemed unphased by the CPI data, but indecision quickly set in. All 3 major indices are struggling to break through and free of their T-line as traders contemplate the next move. However, the rotation out of growth and toward value (as well as names with pricing power) sure looks like a longer-term trend as inflation will be the underlying driver of markets for the foreseeable future. Remember that whipsaw action has been the norm. So, don’t take positions unless you can handle at least short-term pain.

The first rule of making a lot of money in the market is to not lose a lot of money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. When you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Stick to your trading rules and on managing the things you can control. Don’t chase, trade with the trend, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BUD, TX, CAT, MDLZ, KO, XP, T. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened down very slightly on Tuesday and meandered around in lower territory until 11 am.  From that point, all 3 major indices sallied hard (especially in the QQQ) for an hour.  After 12 pm, all 3 then drifted bullishly, closing near the highs.  This left strong white candles that followed through on Monday’s intraday rally, but have yet to test their T-lines (8ema).  On the day, SPY gained 0.91%, DIA gained 0.49%, and QQQ gained 1.50% as the rotation out of tech reversed on the day.  The VXX fell 3.5% to 17.82 and T2122 spiked up into the overbought territory at 87.92.  10-year bond yields fell to 1.742% and Oil (WTI) spiked 4.15% to $81.48/barrel.

During the day, Fed Chair Powell spoke to the Senate in hearings on his renomination.  He told the Senators that the economy is healthy enough and needs a tighter monetary policy to control inflation and that the Fed will tackle the problem.  While he avoided any specifics on actions or timing, he did say that this will include the end of Bond Purchases, interest rate hikes, and a significant reduction in the Fed Balance Sheet (selling bonds and mortgage-backed assets). Powell also explained that there were two key factors that caused the Fed to be wrong about inflation.  First, he said the Fed expected supply chain issues to be resolved SUBSTANTIALLY faster than they have been.  Second, he said the Fed expected a much quicker and more significant return of the workforce (reducing wage pressure) than materialized with the “great retirement.”  While his testimony on inflation was not new, markets did take heart from the session and stocks rallied

Just before the close, a Federal District Judge granted the FTC a second chance to file suit against FB.  FTC Commissioner Khan is expected to refile the suit alleging that FB engaged in illegal monopolistic activity.  FB did not have time to react during the day on Tuesday, but after hours the stock is pulling back.

C announced Tuesday afternoon that it is exiting retail and small business banking in Mexico. This is the latest move in the company’s shift toward focusing on operations centered around global wealth centers.  There are several “potential” candidates to purchase the C Mexican operation, but none are listed in the US.  The C Mexican banking operations accounted for $3.5 billion in revenue and $44 billion in assets during the first 9 months of 2021 and the company was Mexico’s third-largest bank. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed green across the board with the lone exception of Malaysia (-0.07%).  Hong Kong (+2.79%), Japan (+1.92%), and South Korea (+1.54%) led the gainers.  In Europe, markets lean heavily to the green side with only two smaller exchanges in the red at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.55%), DAX (+0.18%), and CAC (+0.43%) lead the way in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open ahead of the CPI data.  The DIA implies a +0.08% open, the SPY is implying a +0.08% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.16% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are flat and Oil (WTI) is up half of a percent in early trading as we wait on the CPI data.

The major economic news scheduled for release Wednesday includes Dec. CPI (8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), the WASDE report (noon), Fed Beige Book (2 pm), and Dec. Federal Budget Balance (2 pm).  However, there are also 2 Fed speakers (Brainard at 10 am and Kashkari at 1 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the market is limited to INFY, JEF, and WIT.  Then after the close, KBH reports.

Markets seem to be waiting on the CPI data this morning before traders decide how to move next. With T-line resistance tests in all 3 major indices in the immediate future, keep an eye on the markets before you chase individual tickers. Yes, we have had two white candles. However, this is not how uptrends are measured. So, be careful of getting caught in the “buy the dip” rush. Also, remember that intraday whipsaw (like Monday’s massive reversal) continues to be the norm lately.

Remember that the first rule of making a lot of money in the market is to not lose a lot of money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. When you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Stick to your trading rules and on managing the things you can control. Don’t chase, trade with the trend, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ITUB, BABA, WFG, TME, AA, BWA, T, APA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday was certainly a wild ride.  Markets gapped down (0.8% in the SPY, 0.36% in the DIA, and 1.4% in the QQQ) and proceeded to follow through, selling off to the lows by 11 am.  However, from that point, stocks rallied hard in a wildly whipsaw-like rally that ended the day on the highs.  This left us a white hammer in the SPY, a black hammer in the DIA, and a large-body white candle with a long lower wick in the QQQ.  On the day, SPY lost 0.12%, DIA lost 0.45%, and QQQ gained 0.07%.  It should be noted that the QQQ was down nearly 3% before its torrid intraday rally.  The VXX was down almost 2% to 18.47 and T2122 fell to 38.15 (still in the mid-range).  10-year bond yields fell just a bit to 1.759% and Oil (WTI) was down two-thirds of a percent to $778.40/barrel.

During the day, two different major banks came out saying they expect at least 4 rate hikes by the Fed this year.  Before the bell, GS said they are now forecasting 4 rate hikes in 2022.  Later in the day, Jamie Dimon of JPM said he expects “the best growth in decades,” a “soft landing” on inflation, and is very bullish.  (Whether coincidence or not, this is when the market started its intraday rally.)  However, he also said he would not be surprised if the Fed went further than 4 hikes.  In fact, he said he would be surprised if it was only 4 rates hikes in 2022. Of course, we have to temper his words by the fact the Fed has projected that it will do 3 rate hikes this year…and big banks do best during periods of rising interest rates (so he could be “talking his book”).

After the close Monday, Fed Vice-Chair Richard Clarida announced he will be stepping down as of this Friday. The surprise move comes with his term expiring in a few weeks on January 31.  The move seems to stem from scrutiny over Clarida’s trading done in February 2020 just as the Fed was preparing to roll out its unprecedented array of rate cuts, QE, and lending facilities that caused markets to go on one of the strongest rallies in history starting in late March 2020.  Clarida has always maintained that the trades were part of a “long-planned portfolio rebalancing” and were not related in any way to Fed plans.

In what is likely to be a global trend, China has taken the next step with its digital currency (e-CNY).  The country has already gotten all leading Chinese mobile payment and e-commerce companies like BABA, TME, WeChat, and Alipay onboard.  However, now the regional tests (10 major cities) have now been rolled out nationally.  The PBOC (Central Bank) announced Monday that it will also be pushing the “digital Yuan” at this year’s Olympics in an effort to gauge global interest and speed broader adoption.  While the US and other countries are far behind China in the move toward a block-chain digital currency (complete government visibility of all transactions), the trend is clear around the world, including the US

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again.  Shenzhen (-1.27%), Japan (-0.90%), and Australia (-0.77%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, Malaysia (+0.91%), Thailand (+0.61%), and Singapore (+0.60%) led the gainers.  In Europe, markets are green across the board at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.67%), DAX (+1.12%), and CAC (+1.33%) are fairly typical of the spread across the region.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mixed green open.  The DIA implies a +0.17% open, the SPY is implying a +0.31% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.49% open at this hour as rotation back toward tech (growth) seems to be back in play.  10-year bond yields are down a bit to 1.762% and Oil (WTI) is up almost 1.5%.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release Tuesday.  However, there are 3 Fed speakers (Mester at 9 am, George at 9:30 am, and Chair Powell faces his re-nomination testimony at 10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the market is limited to ACI and SNX.  There are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

The market seems to be trying to follow through this morning on what may have been a “Dimon’s outlook rally” yesterday. However, keep in mind that all 3 major indices are still in a downtrend and none of them have tested (let alone broken through) their T-lines yet. So, be careful of getting caught in the “buy the dip” rush. The bears still have the trend and overall momentum. Also, remember that intraday whipsaw (like Monday’s massive reversal) has been the norm lately.

Remember that the first rule of making a lot of money in the market is to not lose a lot of money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. When you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Stick to your trading rules and on managing the things you can control. Don’t chase, trade with the trend, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TREE, ABBV, DVN, TRIP, GSK, BMY, CVS. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened flat on Friday.  However, the SPY and QQQ proceeded to sell off until 11 am.  During this time the DIA simply meandered sideways.  From 11-noon, all 3 indices rallied and then ground sideways until about 3:15 pm.  All 3 then sold off the last 45 minutes of the day.  This left indecisive candles in all 3 indices with a white Doji in the DIA, a black Spinning Top in the SPY, and a black candle with good-sized wicks on both ends in the QQQ.  On the day, SPY lost 0.40%, DIA lost 0.02%, and QQQ lost 1.08%.  VXX lost almost 3% to 18.82 and T2122 remained in the mid-range at 61.99.  10-year bond yields rose sharply again to 1.767% and Oil (WTI) lost seven-tenths of a percent to $78.90/barrel.  For the first week of the year, SPY was down 1.87%, DIA was down just 0.28%, but the rotation was obvious as the QQQ was down 4.52%.

During premarket Friday there was some conflicting data.  December Nonfarm Payrolls came in a +199k, which was less than half of what was expected.  (Oddly, the ADP Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls had come in a +807k, versus the same +400k expected just two days prior.) However, the Dec. Unemployment rate fell to 3.9% (versus 4.1% expected) while the Participation rate remained steady.  So, markets were left with either “which data do you believe?” or “None of the data is good” as their options.

During the day Friday, C followed up on its October announcement that vaccination is a condition of employment.  It sent a memo to all employees saying that if they had not proven they have been vaccinated by next week they will be put on unpaid leave and will be terminated as of January 31.  CNBC reports that about 90% of the workforce at C has already submitted proof of vaccination, but that still leaves 22,000 employees at risk of termination, which could have an impact on bank operations.  So far, the other major banks (JPM, BAC, WFC, GS, and MS) have not gone as far as terminating their non-compliant staff.

Friday gave us some very odd food inflation data.  Despite widespread food inflation and news of high food prices, fertilizer prices had a wild week, especially on Friday.  After the price of urea (nitrogen) had swung at least $100/short ton each day of the week, Friday saw fertilizer prices fall 12% (most since 2009).  This massive fall in price is unexplained and comes despite the fact very little of that commodity was available at the discounted price.  (US production is sold out, there are production plant closures across Europe due to a lack of natural gas, China still not willing or able to export until at least May, and the Middle East essentially sold out with production already sold through the end of February.)  Yet the prices fell 12% on a single day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Hong Kong (+1.08%) and India (+1.07%) led the gainers while South Korea (-0.95%) was the only red ticker that was not nearly flat.  In Europe, stocks are strongly in the red, with only a couple of minor exchanges showing green at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.12%), DAX (-0.39%), and CAC (-0.54%) are typical of the region in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a down open.  The DIA implies a -0.13% open, the SPY is implying a -0.31% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.67% open as it appears both the rotation and pullback will remain in place at least early Monday.  10-year bond yields are up very slightly and Oil (WTI) is down two-thirds of a percent in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release Monday.  The only major earnings report scheduled for before the market is CMC.  There are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

The bears seem to have maintained the momentum over the weekend as premarket prices are sitting at the lows across the board. Be very careful with long positions and remember that hedging and waiting are both valid ways to reduce risk. However, also remember that intraday whipsaw has been the norm lately, especially in large-cap spaces.

Remember that the first rule of making a lot of money in the market is to not lose a lot of money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. When you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Stick to your trading rules and on managing the things you can control. Don’t chase, trade with the trend, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: JNJ, CTRA, CVS, FCX, DG, TNA, MMC, GME, SKIN. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks put in a roller-coaster day that ended indecisively in the SPY and QQQ.  DIA was also volatile but ended the day down more than the others.  This left us with a long-legged Doji in the SPY, a Spinning Top candle in the QQQ, and a black candle in the DIA.  On the day, SPY lost 0.09%, QQQ, lost 0.07%, and DIA lost 0.47%.  The VXX rose slightly to 19.38 and T2122 rose to mid-range at 47.26.  10-year bond yields came back down after being over 1.75% during the morning to close at 1.723% and Oil (WTI) spiked to $79.58/barrel.

After the close, CNBC reported that hedge funds are dumping tech stocks (growth stocks) at a massive pace so far in 2022.  They claimed it was the largest rotation by the big money funds in a decade.  This is also obvious on the chart as the QQQ is down 5% so far this year.

Meanwhile, two Asian chipmakers reported strong quarterly updates overnight.  Samsung and STMicro both reported blowout numbers with Samsung saying that its operating profit will be up 52% while STMicro reported its full-year came in +25% sales from the previous year.  Both commented on the strong demand for contract manufacturing services (where they make chips for other brands such as INTC, AMD, NVDA, QCOM, AVGO, and many other tech companies).  However, they also directly compete with some of those as well as TSM, MU, TI, and others. European chip stocks are spiking on the read-through.  We may see the same later with the US chipmaker stocks.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned heavily to the upside today.  Hong Kong (+1.82%), Australia (+1.29%), and South Korea (+1.18%) led the way higher.  Taiwan (-1.08%) was a big outlier to the downside with the 4 other red exchanges all being not far below flat.  In Europe, markets are mixed at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.09%), DAX (-0.40%), and CAC (-0.24%) are all trading lower.  However, most of the smaller exchanges are on the upside in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mixed and modest open.  The DIA implies a -0.01% open, the SPY is implying a +0.14% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.25% open (on read-through from those Asian chipmaker reports).  10-year bond yields are flat (but expect volatility when the Payrolls number hits) and Oil (WTI) is up almost another percent to $80.10/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Friday includes Dec. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec. Participation Rate, and Dec. Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the market is limited to GBX.  There are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

Expect movement this morning, especially in the Treasury market and on inflation-sensitive names. If the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls number (more than twice as big of a gain than expected) is any indication of the official Payrolls report at 8:30 am, we could see fear of an overheating in the economy. (For reference, ADP came in a +807k vs +400k est. and the consensus forecast for the official number today is also +400k.) The point is, don’t be surprised by a big premarket reaction, which may well lead to either follow-through or a snapback after traders have had a chance to digest the news.

Volatility is the watchword now as markets are not quite sure whether it is time for a downtrend or at least a pullback. Remember that the first rule of making a lot of money in the market is to not lose a lot of money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. When you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Stick to your trading rules and on managing the things you can control. Don’t chase, trade with the trend, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: IGT, APTV, FFIE, BTU, F, FE, GM, TGT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday saw the large-caps open flat while the QQQ gapped down about 0.35%.  The divergence kicked it up a notch as the DIA put in a ragged morning rally, SPY ground sideways all morning, and the QQQ slowly sold off.  However, the bears picked up steam about noon as stocks started sinking in all 3 major indices.  Then at 2 pm, as the December Fed minutes came out, the bears really took over as stocks sold off hard and closed near the lows of the day across the board.  This left us with big, ugly black candles in all 3 major indices, with only the DIA able to stay above its T-line.  On the day, DIA lost 1.03%, SPY lost 1.92%, and QQQ lost a whopping 3.07%.  The VXX rose almost 8% to 19.29 and T2122 dropped all the way down to 29.05.  10-year bond yields shot up to 1.70% and Oil (WTI) gained a fraction to $77.17/barrel. 

As mentioned, the December FOMC Meeting Minutes came out on Wednesday afternoon.  The surprise was that in addition to agreeing on speeding the bond-buying taper and pulling forward the first rate hike, there was a lengthy discussion about reducing the size of the Fed Balance Sheet.  (Not just stopping the growth, but many Fed voters are in favor of reducing the balance sheet by selling assets they had purchased over the years.)  In fact, many members were pushing for tightening not only by raising rates twice this year but also starting to sell the $8.3 trillion of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities that the Fed has bought.  This could happen as soon as rate hikes start (March is expected) and would put a serious damper on markets and the economy.

In premarket earnings, WBA easily beat analyst expectations on both earnings and revenue estimates for the quarter.  (Reporting they were aided by vaccinations and testing business.) They also raised guidance for the year.  WBA was up 3.6% in premarket trading, but has come back to +1.5% as of 7:30 am.  Elsewhere, CAG missed on earnings, but beat on revenue.  FE reported in-line on earnings and beat on revenue.  Meanwhile, STZ beat on both lines, and BBBY missed on both lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned heavily to the red as Asia caught up to the bearishness caused by the Fed Minutes.  Japan (-2.88%) and Australia (-2.74%) were far out front in leading the selloff.  Thailand (-1.42%) was the next closest.  On the upside, Hong Kong (+0.74%) and Singapore (+0.66%) were the only gainers.  In Europe, we see red nearly across the board at mid-day.  Only Finland (+0.51%) is showing any green.  The FTSE (-0.57%), DAX (-1.09%), and CAC (-1.40%) are typical of the spread across the region at this hour.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mixed open with continuing rotation toward safety.  The DIA implies a +0.28% open, the SPY is implying a +0.02% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.42% open.  10-year bond yields continue to spike and are at 1.744% while Oil (WTI) is up 1.18% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Import/Exports, and Nov. Trade Balance (all at 8:30 am), Nov. Factory Orders and Dec. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (both at 10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the market include BBBY, CAG, FE, STZ, HELE, LW, SCHN, and WBA.  There are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

Today will be the test to see if rotation toward the safety of mega-cap names (and especially away from the tech growth names) continues as the reaction to Fed hawkishness has had a night to sink in. Earnings season is about to ramp back up. So, we will likely see a disparity between great rear-view mirror earnings and fear of a tightening economy ahead (with the Fed moving to fight inflation and Congress unable to pass the President’s Budget/Spending bill). The very short-term trend is bearish in all 3 major indicies. However, we still sit near the all-time highs, especially in those massive-cap DIA names.

Volatility is the watchword now as markets are not quite sure whether it is time for a downtrend or at least a pullback. Remember that the first rule of making a lot of money in the market is to not lose a lot of money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. When you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Stick to your trading rules and on managing the things you can control. Don’t chase, trade with the trend, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RAD, COP, CVS, BYND, AMD, CBOE, PWR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service