Blog - Page 139 of 651 - Hit & Run Candlesticks

Headline-Grabbing Record

December 27, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The SPY managed another headline-grabbing record before Christmas with a low volume push. The DIA recovered more than 1200 points on declining volume in just four trading days, with the NASDAQ surging nearly 800 points. The question to be answered is whether they can hold and prove a higher level of support. With price resistance levels above, will the bulls have the energy with spiking pandemic worries, or will we find entrenched bears ready to go back to work? Plan carefully because low-volume markets add an extra element of risk.

Asian markets closed mixed overnight, with regional markets closed for Christmas. European market edge higher incautious and thinned holiday trading environment as pandemic restrictions increase across Europe. However, the U.S. markets have pre-market pump engaged with a substantial gap up at the open signaled.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

To begin the last week trading week of the year, we have a very light day on the earnings calendar with just five listed and only two confirmed. Not particularly notable reports include QIPT and AEY.

News & Technicals’

U.S. airlines have canceled hundreds of flights over the Christmas holiday, citing increased Covid cases among crews. Airlines offered flight crews extra pay to pick up trips. Carriers have asked the CDC to lower its recommended quarantine period for fully vaccinated staff. Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland have already started new curbs to help stop the spread of the omicron variant, mainly focusing on indoor mixing. But England has held off on adding to current stay-at-home orders and increased mask-wearing. Johnson will reportedly digest new data on Monday looking at case rates, hospitalizations, ICU figures, and deaths. The Christmas holiday has meant official figures have paused over the weekend, but the U.K. reported a new record of 122,186 infections over 24 hours on Friday. Cases of Covid-19 are likely going to keep surging as the rapidly spreading omicron variant continues to tick up across the globe, U.S. infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday. Every day it goes up and up. The last weekly average was about 150,000, and it likely will go much higher,” Fauci said on ABC’s “This Week.” Chinese authorities will allow full foreign ownership of passenger car manufacturing beginning Jan. 1, 2022. According to a release Monday from the Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission, the top economic planning agency. Treasury yields slide lower in early Monday trading, with the 10-year dipping to 1.4807% and the 30-year ticking lower to 1.880%.

Stretching out last Thursday on light holiday volume, the SPY managed to squeak out another headline-grabbing record before Christmas. The question for today can they hold these price levels with pandemic infection numbers spiking around the world, making for some challenging holiday travel. Nevertheless, index technicals have improved, with only the IWM languishing below the 50 and 200-day averages. However, getting above the averages is just the first step, and now we need to see some proof they can find some price support and hold above them. Expect volume to be lighter than usual this week due to the holiday unless the bears get active, increasing fear. As we challenge resistance levels in the DIA and QQQ, and IWM, we can’t rule out the possibility of entrenched bears. After such a huge point gain in just 4-days the long risk is high, so plan your risk carefully as we make our way toward the new year.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Scrubbed Flights and Good Holiday Sales

December 27, 2021 by Ed Carter

Thursday saw a modest gap higher with about 15minutes of follow-through. The rest of the day was a dead market grinding sideways in a very tight range. However, heavy selling (or dark pool reporting) saw the biggest candle of the day give back a decent portion of the gains the last 5 minutes. This left us with white candles with upper wicks in all 3 major indices. All 10 major sectors were green on the day with Consumer Cyclical and Industrials leading the way. However, also note that, as expected, the last trading day before the Xmas break was a low volume day. For the day, SPY gained 0.62%, DIA gained 0.55%, and QQQ gained 0.75%. The VXX lost a percent to 20.18 and T2122 rose into the overbought territory at 88.10. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.493% and Oil (WTI) rose more than a percent to $73.76/barrel.

Omicron is back in the news over the weekend as UAL, DAL, AAL, and JBLU had to cancel 1,600 US flights between Friday and Sunday due to covid cases among crews. While this sounds terrible, it really only accounted for about 5% of all flights over the weekend. Still, travel-related stocks are dropping in premarket on the news. In better news, the UK government released a study on Sunday that reports omicron patients are 70% less likely to require hospitalization than those with the delta variant. This falls roughly in line with a previous South African study finding omicron patients to be 80% less likely to require hospitalization. However, the news may need to be tempered by the fact that omicron is more communicable. So, in theory, there should be more omicron infections than delta cases.

Bloomberg reported Sunday that MA found that holiday (Nov. 1- Dec. 24) sales rose 8.5% versus 2020 (+10.7% from 2019). However, note that these ARE NOT inflation-adjusted numbers. So, the majority of the gains were due to price increases and not new buying. The largest gains were in apparel (47%), jewelry (32%), and electronics (16%). MA also reports that ecommerce now accounts for 21% of all holiday sales, which is equal to department store sales.

Mortgage rates fell to a four-week low this week. The 30-year fixed-rate conforming loan rate averaged 3.27% (down from 3.30%). However, refinance loan applications rose only 2% while new home purchase loan applications fell 3%.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on mostly modest moves. Malaysia (1.15%) was an outlier to the upside. Taiwan (+0.49%), India (+0.49%), and Australia (+0.44%) led gainers. South Korea (-0.43%) and Japan (-0.37%) paced the losses. In Europe, stocks are mostly green at mid-day. The FTSE (-0.02%), DAX (+0.15%), and CAC (+0.21%) are typical of the region with Denmark (+1.11%) an outlier. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a bullish gap to start the week. The DIA implies a +0.55% open, the SPY is implying a +0.62% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.85% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are flat, but Oil (WTI) is down almost 1.5% in early trading.

There are no major economic news scheduled for release Monday. Note that Canadian markets are closed Monday in Tuesday for the holiday. There are no earnings reports scheduled for Monday either before or after the market.

As we start back up from the Christmas break, it looks like the bulls are in charge as of premarket. Remember that volume is still expected to be low with a lot of big fund leaders extending their holiday another week. With that said, beware of intraday whipsaw that will absolutely punish those who chase. Remember, plan the trade and trade the plan.

Remember the first rule of making a lot of money in the market is to not lose a lot of money in the market. So, stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. When you’re wrong, admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Trade with the trend, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Monday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

Improved Technical’s, But…

December 22, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Yesterday’s significant reversal move improved technical’s for the SPY and QQQ indexes as they recovered 50-day morning averages, but overhead resistance remains a concern. So, on the one hand, the recovery was nice to see; on the other hand, it significantly increased the risk of additional whipsaws or reversals as we slide toward the uncertainty of the Christmas shutdown. We turn our attention to potential market-moving economic reports with market emotion high. Anyone’s guess how we react, but remember, the volume may quickly decline as traders take off for holiday plans. Plan your risk carefully!

During the night, Asian market trade mixed but mostly higher, with travel stocks suffering the uncertainty of rising infection rates. Across the pond, European markets trade flat to slightly positive, keeping a close eye on possible pandemic impacts. U.S. futures currently suggest moderate gains and losses at the open, facing a morning of market-moving economic data. Expect price volatility as we react and then choppy conditions due to holiday travel.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have just 12 companies listed on the Tuesday earnings calendar, with several unconfirmed. Notable reports include KMX, CTAS, PAYX.

News & Technicals’

CES, which serves as an annual showcase of new trends and gadgets in the technology industry, has attracted more than 180,000 people from around the world to a sprawling array of casinos and convention spaces in the past. However, Amazon and its smart-home unit Ring said they would not be onsite at next month’s event due to the “quickly shifting situation and uncertainty around the Omicron variant” of coronavirus. U.S. wireless carrier and conference sponsor T-Mobile also said the vast majority of its contingent would no longer be going. In addition, its chief executive would not deliver a keynote speech. The CDC currently recommends isolation for 10-days after a positive Covid test. Delta wants to cut that in half to five days. The call comes as Covid cases spike and the heavily mutated omicron variant spreads rapidly, straining testing supplies. The head of Germany’s navy said China’s rapid naval buildup underlines a desire by leaders in Beijing to project strength. Vice Adm. Kay-Achim Schonbachsaid China is increasing the size of its navy by the equivalent of the entire French navy every four years. Schonbach commented that the German frigate Bayern is docked in Singapore as part of an effort to safeguard security and stability in the region. Treasury yields ticked lower on Wednesday morning, with the 10-year trading down to 1.463% and the 30-year dipping to 1.876%.

Yesterday’s significant reversal improved technicals, with the SPY and QQQ reclaiming their 50-day averages. However, there remain questions about overhead resistance levels, and the sharp rally just increased the risk considerably for those jumping back into long positions heading into the long weekend. Today we turn our attention to the economic reports of GDP before the bell and Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales, & Petroleum Status during the morning session. Hopefully, price action can calm down with these potentially market-moving reports and the high emotion shown in the price action; anything is possible! When considering positions, it would be wise to remember that volume is likely to decline as traders shut down for holiday plans putting them at risk during Christmas closure.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Stocks Came Back Tues But Look Flat Early

December 22, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Turn-Around Tuesday, markets gapped the opposite of Monday’s gap-down. Then, after a couple of hours of sideways waffle, they started a slow rally that lasted until stocks gave back some of the post-gap gains during the last half hour of the day. This gave us large, gap-up, white candles that closed on their highs and tested the T-line in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY gained 1.73%, DIA gained 1.59%, and QQQ gained 2.23%. The VXX fell almost 5% to 21.66 and T2122 shot back up to mid-range at 66.32. 10-year bond yields shot up to 1.47% and Oil (WTI) jumped 4.17% to $71.47 per barrel.

A study released overnight from the American National Institute for Communicable Diseases done using South African patients has found that omicron has an 80% lower risk of hospitalization and a 70% lower risk of severe disease compared to the Delta variant. The study has not yet been peer-reviewed. Bloomberg reports that while important, at least one UK scientist fears the data may be somewhat biased by the time of year each sample set of data was taken from. (South Africa immunized 44% of its population during the time period the data was drawn from and seasons changed.) Still, for the market, this has to be seen as positive.

The World Bank reported overnight that they are forecasting a sharp decrease in GDP growth in China for 2022. They have lowered their Chinese forecast to +5.1%, which would be the slowest growth in China since 1990. For reference, Chinese GDP grew 8% this year (which itself is below the 8.1% that had been forecast in October). This slowing of the second-largest economy could have major US market implications.

Overnight, Asian markets were almost green across the board on modest moves. Only Shanghai (-0.07%) remained on the red side of flat while India (+1.10%) was an outlier to the upside. Most exchanges showed very modest green moves with Hong Kong (+0.57%) and Malaysia (+0.52%) leading the way. In Europe, markets lean toward the green side on minor moves for the most part at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.10%), DAX (+0.19%), and CAC (+0.09%) are typical of the continent in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA implies a +0.15% open, the SPY is implying a +0.06% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.01% open at this point.

The major economic news scheduled for release Wednesday includes Q3 GDP (8:30 am), Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and Nov. Existing Home Sales (both at 10 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to KMX, CTAS, MSM, and PAYX before the open. There are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

After the Tuesday rebound, beware of a dead market as we are now near the point where traders take off early to get a few extra days of holiday vacation. Intraday whipsaw has been the norm lately, but the global markets and US premarkets are suggesting traders are at least taking the day off. to put a hurt on chasers.

When you’re wrong, admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Remember the first rule of making a lot of money in the market is to not lose a lot of money in the market. So, stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. Trade with the trend, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: APPS, NKE, MSFT, V, ARKG, AMD, MU. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Rapidly Spreading Variant

December 21, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The rapidly spreading variant engaged the bears yesterday with a nasty gap down that created new lows in the QQQ and IWM while the DIA and SPY held above early December lows. This morning the futures point to another big overnight gap putting traders willing to rush back in at high risk. However, plan your risk carefully, with volumes likely to decline heading into the Christmas shutdown and the pandemic economic uncertainty. Expect the whipsaws and overnight reversals to continue as we approach the significant overhead resistance levels.

Asian markets closed green across the board last night, led by the Nikkei surging 2.08%. European markets also want to shake off the pandemic concerns showing green across the board this morning. With another light day of earnings and economic reports, U.S. futures point to another big overnight gap keeping the risk high for those willing to rush back into the fray. Don’t rule out the possibility of a pop and drop at the open and watch for head fakes and intraday whipsaws as volume contracts due to holiday travel.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have 15 companies listed on the earnings calendar as we head toward the holiday shutdown. Notable reports include AIR, APOG, BB, CAMP, FDS, GIS, NEOG, & RAD.

News & Technicals’

The Biden administration will deploy 1,000 medical personnel from the military to back up hospitals if they face a wave of omicron patients in January and February. The White House also purchases 500 million at-home Covid tests that Americans can order for free through a website starting in January. On Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that omicron is rapidly spreading and is now the dominant variant representing 73% of U.S. cases. In January, the Senate will vote on the Build Back Better Act despite Sen. Joe Manchin’s opposition to the bill, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced. Manchin dealt a crushing blow to President Joe Biden’s top domestic priority, which would invest in the social safety net and green-energy programs. It is unclear if Democrats will try to pass a smaller bill that includes only the Build Back Better Act. The enhanced child tax credit, which the bill would renew, expires at the end of the year. According to data published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the rapidly spreading omicron variant is now the dominant Covid strain in the U.S., representing 73% of sequenced cases. Omicron has displaced the previously dominant delta variant, which CDC data shows is now an estimated 26.6% of sequenced cases for the week ending December 18. Treasury Yields edged higher in Tuesday morning trading, with the 10-year trading up to 1.420% and the 30-year rising to 1.849%.

Fear of possible economic impacts from the rapidly spreading variant brought the bears yesterday, creating new lows in the QQQ and IWM. However, DIA and SPY held at lows higher than the beginning of December, providing some hope that a relief rally could soon occur. Unfortunately, the technical damage has left significant price resistance levels above that may now harbor entrenched bears willing to defend. As volume begins to contract due to the Christmas travel, the question to be answered is wheather traders weary of the wild volatility will be as willing to take the high risk of rushing back into risk. This morning futures are attempting to inspire buyers with another big overnight gap. Will it trigger a short squeeze, or could it be just another pop-and-drop trap? The risk is high so plan your risk carefully, my friends.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Whipsaw Reigns as EV Stocks Take Beating

December 21, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down well over a percent and then followed through the first hour of the day. However, this led to a sideways waffle the rest of the session but ended on an up wave that had the 3 major indices closing near their highs of the day. This volatility left us with gap-down, white Hammer-type candles across the major indices. On the day, SPY lost 1.06%, DIA lost 1.23%, and QQQ lost 1.10%. The VXX rose almost 4% to 22.78 and T2122 dove deep into the oversold territory at 4.44. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.426% and Oil (WTI) fell 3.1% to $68.66/barrel.

In a follow-up to the weekend story of Senator Manchin essentially killing President Biden’s domestic spending and climate agenda, markets reacted to the news during the day. In particular, electric vehicle (EV) stocks plummeted as the prospect of EV tax incentives, more widely available charging stations, etc. were killed as part of the package. RIDE lost 8.15%, FFIE lost 9.45%, NKLA lost 7.31%, and recent IPO RIVN lost 7.90%. TSLA and GM (which no longer qualify for federal tax credits) fared relatively better. TSLA lost 3.50% and GM lost 2.03% on the day.

After the close NKE and MU both easily beat estimates on both revenue and earnings. MU spiked 7% in after-hours trading on this news. Meanwhile, NKE was up almost 3% in the post-market session. However, this morning GIS easily beat on revenue but missed on earnings. At the same time, RAD handily beat on earnings but missed on revenue.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side on varying moves. Only Malaysia (-0.09%) showed any red while Japan (+2.08%), Hong Kong (+1.00%), and Shanghai (+0.88%) led the gains. In Europe, stocks are green across the board at mid-day. The FTSE (+1.00%), DAX (+1.10%), and CAC (+1.03%) are typical of the continent, with outliers like Russia (+0.35%) and Norway (+1.60%). As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a gap higher at the open. The DIA implies a +0.89% open, the SPY is implying a +0.95% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.08% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are up strongly to 1.451% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.5% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Tuesday is limited to Q3 Current Accounts (8:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to GIS and RAD before the open. Then after the close, AIR reports.

Once again markets made most of their eventual move in the overnight gap. However, there was just enough intraday whipsaw to put a hurt on chasers. Only the mega-cap DIA has not tested its December lows, as the SPY and QQQ passed their test Monday. It looks like we may be headed back to retest the T-line next. So, consider whether there is a trend at the moment and whether you have an edge. Either way, keep a close eye on volatility and don’t forget that volume is likely to dry up as the week goes on.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: MCK, JNPR, ABUS, NEM, LSI, CSCO, PGR, CVS, AVGO, VZ, CERN, GILD. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

More Technical Damage

December 20, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The selling on Friday created more technical damage as the DIA and QQQ joined the IWM below their 50-day averages. However, the DIA and SPY still hope they can avoid dipping below the Dec. 1^st low. Unfortunately, follow-through selling this morning will officially create lower lows in the QQQ and IWM and likely dampen the spirit of the buy-the-dip buyers who will feel the pain of another gap down today. The highly hyped and hoped-for Santa rally looks to have been stolen by the Grinchy new variant and its possible economic impacts. Expect volume to drop quickly this week as traders head out for holiday plans.

Asian market closed red across the board as pandemic worries intensified. European markets are also decidedly bearish, with the FTSE leading the bears down 1.96% this morning as restrictions expand. Ahead of a light day of earnings and economic data, U.S. futures point to a nasty gap down to begin this holiday-shortened week. So, buckle up and get ready for a dose of volatility in the open.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Kicking off a holiday-shortened week, we have 14 companies listed with a few unconfirmed. Notable reports include CCL, MU, NIKE, & BLDE.

News & Technicals’

The Netherlands entered full lockdown from Sunday until mid-January, leaving only supermarkets and essential shops open. In the U.K., government ministers are also refusing to rule out further restrictions over Christmas as cases skyrocket. President Joe Biden’s Chief Medical Officer Anthony Fauci said on Sunday that it was clear omicron was already “raging through the world.” However, modern said that its currently authorized booster could “boost neutralizing antibody levels 37-fold higher than pre-boost levels,” which it described as reassuring. However, it also said that a double dose of the booster shot — 100 micrograms, rather than the approved 50 micrograms — was significantly more effective. Sen. Joe Manchin, a conservative Democrat, said Sunday he won’t support the Biden administration’s “Build Back Better” plan. Manchin’s decision will likely kill the $1.75 trillion social spendings and climate policy bill as it is now. Democrats need Manchin’s vote in the 50-50 Senate, plus a tie-breaker from Vice President Kamala Harris. Treasury Yields traded lower in early Monday trading, with the 10-year slipping to 1.3716% and the 30-year falling to 1.7897%.

The selling on Friday added more technical damage to the index charts, with the QQQ, IWM, and now the DIA trading below their 50-day averages. Central bank changes and the rapidly spreading pandemic variant may have ended the hope of a Santa Clause rally this year. Heavy selling in Asia and Europe suggests the short holiday weeks ahead could see challenging price action. Once again, the buy-the-dip buyers will feel the sting of disappointment with futures pointing to a substantial gap lower. The QQQ and the IWM look to open lower than the December 1^st lows, but the DIA and SPY still cling to hope a lower low can be avoided. Keep in mind volume will likely decline throughout the week as traders head out for holiday plans. Moring price volatility could easily slip quickly into low volume choppy price action unless otherwise inspired by news events.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Short Week Met By Lowered GDP Forecast

December 20, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down about a percent on Friday morning. Then with the quadruple witching, volatility reigned. After the gap down, the large-caps put in a whipsaw day along the opening price before closing near the lows. However, the QQQ rallied, more than closing the gap before it started its volatile ride. Again, the tech stocks ended up closer to the lows than the highs of the day. The SPY and QQQ indices both printed indecisive candles with large upper wicks, but the DIA printed a large-body black candle. On the day, SPY lost 1.41%, DIA lost 1.62%, and QQQ lost 0.50%. The VXX rose 3% to 21.97 and T2122 rose just outside the oversold territory to 21.05. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.404% and Oil (WTI) lost almost 3% to $70.34/barrel.

Covid has come back as a major business issue again. In the UK, the Mayor of London said that more Covid restrictions are inevitable after declaring a major incident as both cases and hospitalizations spiked in the city. The UK government is debating another lockdown. However, in the Netherlands, the debate is over as they went back into lockdown until mid-January. France and Italy have begun discussing their own options in this regard. If there is a silver lining, it is that the corporate world now has a lot of experience dealing with remote work, mask requirements, and the loss of manpower due to illness/quarantine.

GS cut their US economic forecasts significantly this morning as a result of the last week’s political drama. They have lowered Q1 by 1% (to +2%), Q2 by half of a percent (to +3%), and Q3 by 0.25% (to +2.75%). This comes amidst the backdrop of 7% inflation and is the result of new expectations that President Biden’s domestic economic spending is now dead. (Following Dem. Senator Manchin’s declaration, that he would not vote for that spending.)

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board. India (-2.18%), Japan (-2.13%), and Shenzhen (-2.01%) led the losses as omicron fears and the divergence of Chinese easing from Western tightening took root. In Europe, we also see red across the board at mid-day. The FTSE (-1.07%), DAX (-1.69%), and CAC (-0.99%) pace the continent as usual, but losses are widespread and strong as of early afternoon. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to the US following the rest of the world lower. The DIA is implying a -1.02% open, the SPY implies a -1.14% open, and the QQQ is implying a -1.33% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are lower (1.385%) and Oil (WTI) is down over 3% in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release Monday. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to CLL before the open. Then after the close, NKE and MU report.

Welcome back to a short, likely low volume, and potentially whippy pre-Xmas week. US markets look like they want to test the early December low this morning. Keep an eye on volatility and don’t forget that volume is likely to dry up as the week goes on.

Stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. Trade with the trend, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. When you’re wrong, admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Trade carefully, and continue to think twice before holding through earnings…especially without a hedge in place.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: VZ, NEM, IBM, DRI, LEG, SBUX, BBIG, CRSP, BAC. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Quadruple Witching

December 17, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Thursday morning’s early bullishness turned to the bear’s favor with yesterday’s pop and drop, leaving behind concerning price patterns on the SPY, QQQ, and IWM. Today with little inspiration available on the earnings and economic calendars, the quadruple witching could add to the wild price gyrations as we slide into the weekend. That could make it challenging for the bulls to defend price supports if traders and investors reduce or avoid weekend risk. Remember, cash is a position!

During the night, Asian markets closed red across the board, with tech stocks sliding south. This morning, European market trade is mainly in the red market, and infection rates, surges, and tech fall 1.7%. This morning, U.S. futures point lower across the board as uncertainty raises its ugly head heading into the weekend. Plan your risk carefully with price gyrations expected due to options expiration.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a very light day on the Friday earnings calendar with just 12 companies listed but only three confirmed. Those listed but not particularly notable are DRI, WGO & YCBD.

News & Technicals’

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is seeking information from Affirm, Afterpay, Klarna, PayPal, and Zip on the risks and benefits of their products. For example, “Buy now, pay later” services let shoppers defer payment for items, typically throughout monthly installments and with no interest attached. Affirm’s shares closed down by 11% Thursday, while Australian companies Afterpay, Zip, and Sezzle on Friday dropped 8%, 6%, and 10%, respectively. Rivian said it expects to fall “a few hundred vehicles short” of its 2021 production target of 1,200 vehicles. The company said it faced supply chain issues and challenges ramping up production of the complex batteries that power the vehicles. The updates come alongside Rivian’s first quarterly report as a public company and confirmation of plans for a new $5 billion plant in Georgia that’s expected to come online in 2024. Adobe’s guidance for its fiscal first-quarter badly missed analysts’ estimates. The stock plummeted 10%, its second-worst day in the past decade. In December, it’s the third time that Adobe shares have plunged, putting the stock on pace for its steepest monthly drop since June 2010. Treasury yields dip slightly in early Friday trading, with the 10-year sliding down to 1.4208% and the 30-year declining to 1.8538%.

Yesterday’s pop and drop increased uncertainty, with the QQQ leaving behind a bearish engulfing candle and opening the door for a possible reversal. Today is a quadruple witching day, so the market may experience odd price gyrations as the institutions and investors adjust positions. Unfortunately, we have little to nothing on earnings and economic calendars to inspire direction. That said, with the uncertainty displayed in the charts heading into the weekend, the bulls may have a tough time defending price support levels. Sadly, the hoped-for Santa rally may well succumb to the Grinch’s shenanigans. I wish you all a safe and restful weekend!

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Bears Take Back Control

December 17, 2021 by Ed Carter

Maybe it was a reaction to the premarket rate hike by the UK or maybe it was just an “on second thought” reaction to Wednesday’s Fed announcements. Whatever it was, after a gap higher at the open, the bears were in control all day long. This left us with a Dark Cloud Cover signal in the SPY and a Bearish Engulfing signal in the QQQ. On the day, SPY lost 0.83%, QQQ lost 2.51%, and the DIA went relatively unscathed at -010%. The VXX rose over 4% to 21.28 and T2122 dropped back down a bit to 44.64. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.428% and Oil (WTI) still gained 1.67% to $72.05/barrel.

ADBE (-10.22%) got crushed on Thursday after announcing weak forward guidance while reporting a beat on revenue and reporting in-line earnings all before the open. Their guidance was 2.5% below analyst estimates on earnings and 1.5% low on revenue for the next quarter. However, Mr. Market felt that punishment was required. Then after the bell, RIVN share fell 10% as well when the company reported in-line earnings and revenue, but gave poor production guidance in its first-ever quarterly report.

New York City is experiencing what it calls an “alarming increase” in covid numbers. The city has seen a 135% increase in reported cases and a 21% increase in hospitalizations over the last two weeks. As a result, many Wall Street companies are moving back to remote work. Among the major brokerage/fund firms making those decisions are BLK, JPM, and JEF. However, the resurgence is having an impact nationwide as companies as varied as AAPL, FB, F, and GOOG have postponed their “return to office” and/or closed particular offices again. (AAPL closed 3 stores.)

Meta announced that 50,000 FB users had been spied on by seven “surveillance for hire” companies. (Side note: FB is absolutely not the only platform these companies surveil.) Most of these companies are located in Israel, which has particular expertise in spyware and data mining. Most of the people targeted were journalists, activists, and either government or corporate officials. It is widely believed these companies were hired by governments who either lack the capabilities in-house or, like the US, are sometimes forbidden by law from spying on their own citizens…but are allowed to hire someone else to do it.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red. Japan (-1.79%), Shenzhen (-1.62%), and India (-1.53%) led the way lower. However, there were 5 exchanges that gained, mostly on very modest moves, with an outlier in Malaysia (+1.17%). In Europe, stocks are nearly red across the board. The FTSE (+0.19%) is the only green as the DAX (-0.74%) and CAC (-1.08%) are much more typical of the region at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a red open. The DIA implies a -0.13% open, the SPY is implying a -0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.85% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are down sharply to 1.397% and Oil (WTI) is down almost 2% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Friday is limited to a Fed speaker (Waller at 1 pm). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to DRI and WGO before the open. There are no reports scheduled for after the close.

The market looks to be giving a little follow-through to Thursday’s move. With no news today, the apparent stoppage of the President’s economic agenda (major political news), and quadruple witching happening today, don’t be surprised by a lackluster market. Keep an eye out for pinning or even volatility as the afternoon hits. And don’t forget it’s Friday or that next week is Christmas week, which is likely to be low-volume and dull as traders take time off. So, pay yourself, get ready for the weekend news cycle, and consider whether you will be trading next week.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas this morning. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching