On Thursday, the major indices gapped lower in a divergent manner. (The DIA gapped down 0.10%, SPY gapped down about 0.25%, and QQQ gapped down two-thirds of a percent.)  After those gaps, we saw a sideways roller-coaster ride in a tight horizontal channel until 2:30 pm.  However, at that point the bulls stepped in to drive a stronger wave for 45 minutes was met by an even sharper selloff in the last 10 minutes of the day. This action left us with indecisive, Spinning Top type candles.  (It also sets up potential Morning Star signals in the 3 indices if we get the right candle Friday.  However, every Morning Star Setup is also a Bearish Doji Continuation Pattern setup.)  With all this said, the indices are also very extended below their T-lines (8ema) at this point.  

On the day, nine of the ten sectors are in the red with Comm. Services (+0.01%) barely hanging on to the green while Consumer Cyclical (-2.24%) was by far the largest losing sector.  Meanwhile, the SPY was down 0.86%, DIS was down 0.42%, and QQQ was down 1.23%.  The VXX was flat at 18.87 and T2122 has dropped extremely deep into the oversold territory to 1.79. 10-year bond yields have spiked to 3.704% and Oil (WTI) was up three-quarters of a percent to $83.60/barrel.  So, the good news is that the major post-Fed volatility has dissipated.  However, the bad news is that there is still major indecision and some volatility within the strong bearish trend.

In Economic news, Q2 Current Account came in much better than expected (-$251.1 billion vs. -$260.6 billion forecast and -$282.5 billion in Q1).  This 11.1% decrease in the deficit happened due to a sharp INCREASE in exports.  Weekly Initial Jobless Claims also came in slightly better than expected (213k vs. 218k forecast, but a bit higher than last week’s 208k).  Meanwhile, overseas, South Korea reported its first monthly PPI fall in two years.  In terms of bond yields, most of them are sitting at the highest level since 2008.  The 2-year is at 4.118% yield.  However, the most concerning fact about bond yields is the complete inversions, which is usually an indicator of a pending recession.  (2-year > 5-year > 10-year > 30-year.)  Finally, in counter-inflationary news, Bloomberg reports that copper has fallen by one-third since March.

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After the close, in earning news, COST reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, FDX and AIR both reported misses on revenue while beating on earnings.  None of those companies changed forward guidance.  However, FDX had already reduced the reported quarter’s guidance and had removed all forward estimates in a preannouncement last week.  The company also said it was struggling with light shipping volumes in Europe and Asia.

In other stock news, speaking of FDX, the company announced they are raising Express, Ground, and Home Delivery by an average of 6.9%.  The company will increase FedEx Freight rates by between 6.9% and 7.9%.  They also announced a plan to cut costs which they expect to deliver $2.25 billion in cost savings during fiscal 2023. Elsewhere, the Wall Street Journal reported after the close that HUM and CVS are both in the running to acquire senior primary care provider CANO.  (CANO was up 60% between 3:15 pm and 3:30 pm Thursday as the news leaked.  The stock closed up 32% on the day.)  Finally, after the close, the SEC announced that BA and its former CEO (Muilenburg) have consented to pay $200 million and $1 million respectively to settle charges of issuing materially misleading statements in 2018 and 2019, following the company’s multiple 737Max crashes.

In miscellaneous news, the Yen soared Thursday as Japanese monetary authorities continued their intervention to prop up their currency.  The Yen climbed 1.2% against the US Dollar on the day.  With that said, the Dollar gained against the Euro and Loonie.  Elsewhere, Reuters reports that Senate Republicans threatened large banks (JPM, BAC, C, WFC, USB, PNC, etc.) that they will face unspecified retaliation unless they abandon and avoid all liberal stances on social, environmental, and/or cultural issues (so-called ESG issues).  Meanwhile, the Senate Democrats “requested” (again, an implied and unspecified threat) that the banks remain neutral on employee unionization, limit and strictly manage bank risks, and warned them over profiteering and practices that prey on customers (such as WFC has repeatedly been found guilty). Finally, in one last quasi-political tidbit, it was widely reported last night that Senator Manchin does not have even the Senate votes to pass his Energy bill aimed at removing environmental restrictions, fast-tracking project permitting, and approving pipelines.  It’s uncertain which, if any, of the oil and coal companies (Manchin’s benefactors) may have been relying on this bill or which are most impacted if it does fail to pass.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board.  Australia (-1.87%), South Korea (-1.81%), and India (-1.72%) led the region lower.  In Europe, stocks are sharply lower as Putin’s farce referendums begin in the areas Russia still holds (but even refugees from those areas held in Russia are not permitted to vote), the UK announced a raft of corporate tax cuts, and eurozone PMI fell again.  (The British pound also fell 1.8% to a fresh 37-year low versus the dollar.)  The FTSE (-2.14%), DAX (-2.43%), and CAC (-2.33%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  However, even the best exchange in the region is down 1.70% (Switzerland).  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a significant gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -1.19% open, the SPY is implying a -1.30% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.42% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are surging again to 3.771% and Oil (WTI) is down more than 3% to $80.85/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday are limited to Mfg. PMI and Service PMI (both at 9:45 am) and Fed Chair Powell speaks again at 2 pm.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for Friday. 

As we come into the last day of the week, markets are staring at more than a 4% loss so far by the SPY. GS also sharply reduced their year-end target for the S&P500 from 4300 to 3600 (citing rising interest rates and, as a result, increasing recession risk. Overseas, the Europeans are scrambling to cap wholesale energy prices, subsidize companies and households for energy costs, and add better/additional volatility circuit-breakers to energy markets. The point is, the picture is pretty bleak and there isn’t a lot of good news to bolster bulls.

With this backdrop, the strong bear trend remains in place across all 3 major indices. However, especially after today’s significant gap down, we are again very extended from the T-line (8ema) and are deeply oversold in terms of the T2122 indicator. The DIA will be testing the June lows if we open as we sit now and there is no significant potential support in the other indices before we reach that test as well. So, expect volatility and even though everything looks very bearish, do not forget we are extended. Markets moving in zig-zags and there will be a zag coming at some point soon. Finally, remember that it’s Friday and there is a weekend news cycle ahead. Consider whether you should take profits, move stops, hedge, or adjust position sizes ahead of the two days when we can’t react to news.

Keep in mind that trading is our job. It’s not a hobby. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped about a half of a percent higher at the open Wednesday.  This turned into a long sideways grind in a tight range on low volume for all 3 major indices right up until the Fed announcements at 2 pm.  That abruptly came to an end, when the Fed news hit and we saw the true definition of whipsaw. After the announcement, there was a small surge higher for 5 minutes, only to be met by a massive 1.6% to 2% collapse in the 5 minutes after that initial surge.  The volatility continued when Fed Chair Powell began to speak, the bulls surged the market back up by more than a full percent, to take us to the highs of the day in all 3 major indices at about 2:50 pm.  However, the whip was not done as the bears stepped in shortly after 3 pm to drive us back down into the close, taking us out on the lows of the day.  

On the day, this action left us with large bearish engulfing candles that had a significant upper wick and that had failed a retest of the T-line (8 ema) in all 3 major indices.  All 10 sectors were red on the day with Consumer Defensive (-0.53%) by far the strongest and Consumer Cyclical (-2.58%) by far the weakest sector.  The SPY lost 1.73%, the DIA lost 1.71%, and the QQQ lost 1.82%.  VXX gained over 2% to 18.86 and contrary to what you might expect, T2122 dropped deeper into the oversold territory at 3.45.  10-year bond yields fell to 3.514% and Oil (WTI) fell two-thirds of a percent to $83.42/barrel.

In Economic news, August Existing Home Sales came in a bit stronger than expected (4.8 million versus the 4.7 million forecast and 4.82 million in July).  EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories also followed the API number from Tuesday evening by building less than was expected (+1.142 million vs +2.161 million barrels forecast).  Across the pond, the UK’s new PM Truss announced corporate tax cuts and reversing a planned corporate tax increase as her plan for fighting a recession.  IFS (the non-partisan arbiter of UK government spending) called the move disappointing and said there is little chance the cuts would ever pay for themselves and they will likely increase the UK budget deficit by around 3.5% of GDP.  However, as stated above, the day’s big economic news came out of the Fed.

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In Fed News, the FOMC decided to go with a 0.75% rate hike (to 3.25%) which was exactly what more than 80% of traders had been expecting.  The FED statement also indicated that they will keep hiking well above the current level in order to fight inflation.  The FOMC now projects the “terminal point” (the highest they will raise rates) to be 4.6% and that this level will be reached in 2023.  The “Dot Plots” (the individual FOMC member expectations) do not foresee a rate cut until at least 2024.  Meanwhile, the Fed projections see unemployment rising from the current 3.7% to a high of 4.4% next year.  They also expect GDP Growth to slow to +0.2% for 2022 and then rise slowly to a long-term rate of +1.8%.  (That +0.2% growth number for 2022 is a sharp cut from their June estimate of +1.7%.  This coupled with the wording “below trend growth” scared many traders.)  However, the Fed expects headline inflation to drift lower the rest of the year, coming down to a 5.4% number (compared to July which expected 6.3% inflation by year-end).  Finally, they expect to have inflation back down to 2% by 2025.

In stock news, META announced plans to cut costs by 10%.  This is likely to include job cuts, but nothing was announced yet.  Then after the close, MSFT announced an increase in its quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.68, payable on 12/8 for holders of record on 11/17.  On the opposite side, GLT announced it has suspended its dividend in order free up cash for the operational and financial needs of the company.  Also, after the close, FUL, KBH, LEN, SCS, and TCOM all reported misses on the revenue line while also beating on the earnings line. KBH and SCS went further to lower forward guidance while the others left guidance as it was stated the previous quarter.

In Energy news, the UK government announced a multi-billion-pound bailout program to help companies pay their energy bills.  They also will cap wholesale energy prices for the next six months.  In the US, the Senate ratified (in a bipartisan manner, 69-27) the “Kigali Amendment” to the Global Environmental Treaty.  This amendment outlaws various HFC gasses used in HVAC and Refrigeration units.  These both followed an oil surge after Putin’s ratcheting of tensions calling up another 300,000 reservists and then threatening nuclear attacks (by saying they were being threatened with nukes).  However, the Fed got the last word as the Dollar reached a new 20-year high after the Fed news, working against all dollar-denominated commodities and driving oil down. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side.  Thailand (+0.72%) was by far the biggest of the 3 winners.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-1.61%), Australia (-1.56%), and Taiwan (-0.97%) led the majority of the region’s exchanges downward.  In Europe, stocks are mostly red at mid-day with the notable exception of Russia (+2.04%).  The FTSE (-0.32%), DAX (-0.62%), and CAC (-0.68%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.01% open, the SPY is implying a -0.13% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.28% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up again to 3.54% and Oil (WTI) is up eight-tenths of a percent to $83.64/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday are limited to Q2 Current Account and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for Thursday, ACN, DRI, and FDS report before the open. Then after the close, AIR, COST, and FDX report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, we see Mfg. PMI, Service PMI, and Fed Chair Powell speaks again. Meanwhile, in earnings reports later this week, on Friday there are no major earnings reports scheduled.

So far this morning, ACN has posted beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, FDS beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  The DRI report missed on revenue and reported in-line in terms of earnings.

In late-breaking news, the Bank of England raised rates by 0.50%, which followed the same move made by Norway’s Central Bank. However, Turkey is swimming against the current by cutting interest rates by a full percent…even as the country is suffering from 80% inflation. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is down this morning (versus the basket of 10 peer currencies). Some of the Dollar’s move lower is due to the Japanese government intervening to prop up the Yen for the first time since 1998.

With this backdrop, the strong bear trend remains in place across all 3 major indices. It now looks (ahead of weekly unemployment data) like we will open just a modest amount lower. However, we are again extended from the T-line (8ema) and are deeply oversold in terms of the T2122 indicator. There is also potential support not far below. So, beware of the potential for “gap and reverse.” As yesterday’s Fed whipsaw should have taught us…we simply can’t get caught chasing. Otherwise, Mr. Market will punish us severely. So, be patient and remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market.

Keep in mind that trading is our job. It’s not a hobby. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GME, AAPL, UBER, SQQQ, GOOG, AMZN, SDS. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down (0.88% in the SPY, 0.89% in the DIA, and 1.10% in the QQQ) at the open Monday.  However, this was a bear trap as bulls immediately stepped in and rallied all 3 major indices back up through the gap and into positive territory before 11 am.  At that point, the market started a sideways grind with a slight bearish trend for a few hours.  Then finally, the bulls stepped back in at 2:30 pm to drive us back to the highs of the day at 3 pm and take us out on the highs.  This action left us with gap-down, white-bodied, Marubozu-type candles that engulfed the prior white candles.

Nine of the 10 sectors were green with Healthcare (-0.75%) by far the biggest loser and Basic Materials (+2.11%) by far the biggest gaining sector.  Meanwhile, the SPY gained 0.76%, DIA gained 0.68%, and QQQ gained 0.60% on the day.  At the same time, the VXX closed down over 9% to 17.99 and T2122 climbed out of the oversold territory to 27.34.  10-year bond yields pulled back from early highs to 3.49% and Oil (WTI) has recovered from early lows to $85.53/barrel.  All-in-all, just a bear trap day that maybe held support and relieved some over-extension.  

In stock news, AXP announced Monday that it will be hiring 1,500 technology workers before the end of 2022 (a 2.5% headcount increase) despite other financial institutions cutting jobs. Meanwhile, TSLA announced that it has completed its production capacity expansion project at its Shanghai facility.  Elsewhere, at the end of the day Monday, Bloomberg reported that banks led by BARC and BAC are moving ahead with risky leveraged buyout financing projects that had 8-10% ahead of the Fed decision, citing several project examples. (The takeaway is that, despite interest rates rising, big banks are still willing to undertake risky projects in search of an additional 4% profit above their own projected terminal Fed Funds Rate…which would make risk-free bond yields in the area of only 2.5%-3% below their risky projects.)  In other news, a group of 46 US states has now appealed a lower court dismissal of an anti-trust lawsuit against META.  Finally, after the close, F warned investors of an additional $1 billion in unplanned supply chain costs during Q3.

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In Economic news, on Monday, the National Assn. of Home Builders Housing Market Index dropped three points to 46.  Any reading below 50 indicates that single-family homebuilders have a bearish sentiment toward the housing market.  Elsewhere, Fed Funds futures have now priced in an 81% chance of a 0.75% rate hike along with a 19% probability of a 1.00% hike by the FOMC on Wednesday.  The US Dollar rose on these expectations, nearing the 20-year high set on September 7^th.  Obviously, this inversely impacts all dollar-denominated commodities such as oil, gold, and grains.  Finally, the second largest US Port (Port of Long Beach) reported a decline in inbound containers in August.  The Port Executive Director attributes this to cooling consumer demand and the end of pandemic-related port backlogs.  (Long Beach and Los Angeles together account for 40% of container traffic from China.)

In Energy news, Reuters reports that German utility companies (RWE and Uniper) are very close to signing a long-term LNG supply contract with Qatar as at least a partial replacement for Russian LNG.  The Qatari fields that would supply this gas are partly owned and operated by RDS, XOM, and COP. In a related story, Bloomberg reports that European natural gas prices fell again (its longest losing streak since July) as EU countries unveiled plans to offset costs, avoid shortages, and help household users.  Elsewhere, AAA reports that US vehicle traffic fell by 3.3% in July.  This was the second consecutive monthly decline in travel that the group reported.  However, year-to-date, the group says miles traveled is up 1.8% over 2021 levels.

In miscellaneous news, Turkey’s President Erdogan told PBS News that Russian President Putin has pressed him on the need for peace.  Erdogan went on to say that the basis of any peace deal would have to be returning all Ukrainian land (including Crimea), but that no leader will ever admit military action was a mistake. Meanwhile, the battle to liberate Luhansk has Russian proxies worried and again threatening to hold a referendum to join Russia (implying Russia would then be free to nuke the rest of Ukraine to guarantee the Donbas then remains in Russian hands).  Elsewhere, US Dollar strength continues as the Euro is back below parity, the British Pound is at its lowest level going back to 1980, and the Japanese Yen is again approaching a 24-year low versus the dollar.  Finally, overnight Switzerland kicked off the week’s rate hikes by increasing its benchmark rate by 1.00%.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  Australia (+1.29%), Hong Kong (+1.16%), and India (+1.10%) led the region higher as China kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged.  Meanwhile, in Europe, at midday, we are seeing the opposite story taking shape.  Russia’s -4.03% is an outlier in the region and the FTSE (-0.09%) is mostly flat in its first trading since before the Queen’s funeral.  However, the DAX (-0.65%) and CAC (-0.74%) are more typical and lead the region lower.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward another down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.33% open, the SPY is implying a -0.40% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.47% open at this hour.  10-year bond yield continue to spike and are now at 3.539% while Oil (WTI) is off 0.4% to $85.39/barrel in early trading.

There major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday include August Building Permits and August Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am), and API Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (4:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for Tuesday are limited to AJG before the open.  Then after the close, SFIX reports. 

In economic news later this week, Wednesday, August Existing Home Sales, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Interest Rate Projections, Fed Rate Decision, Fed Statement, Fed Economic Projections, and the Fed Chair Press Conference all are reported.  On Thursday, we get Q2 Current Account and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.  Finally, on Friday, we see Mfg. PMI, Service PMI, and Fed Chair Powell speaks again.

In earnings reports later this week, Wednesday, GIS, FUL, KGH, LEN, SCS, and TCOM report.  On Thursday, we hear from ACN, DRI, FDS, AIR, COST, and FDX report.  Finally, on Friday there are no major earnings reports scheduled.

The downtrend remains in place but the market feels like it is pausing here, waiting on the Fed decision before making any significant moves. However, the vast majority of traders expect a 0.75% hike tomorrow (the futures say the probability is now 82%). You will have to judge for yourself whether the risk is more for a lesser or greater hike. With that said (and ahead of housing data), it looks like we will open with a gap down today. So, beware of the potential for “gap and reverse” like yesterday. Simply, just don’t get caught chasing.

The major indices all remain extended a bit to the downside at this point, at least relative to their T-line (8ema). As mentioned, the trend also remains bearish. However, there is support just below. This indecision is not a good environment for swing trading. This is a “get quick or get out” market where the intraday whip and the daily “gap and chop” could eat your account alive. So, don’t feel the need to trade. Be patient and remember that the first rule of making big money predict in the market is to not lose big money in the market.

Keep in mind that trading is our job. It’s not a hobby. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BVN, NCLH, LVS, SQQQ, TZA, SPXS, MOS, WMT, NEM, NFLX, NVAX, ZS, PINS, KGC, MRNA, VALE, BAC, JPM, TSLA, FCX, CUK. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

FDX removing guidance and predicting a global recession had markets spooked on Friday.  As a result, the 3 major indices gapped down (between 1.1% and 1.5%) at the open and has then oscillated sideways in a fairly tight range until 2:30 pm.  At that point the bulls stepped to rally for the rest of the day, closing near the highs of the day.  (However, still the lowest close in two months.)  This action gave us gap-down, indecisive Spinning Top candles across all the major indices.  This will put all 3 major indices in a large Bearish Engulfing signal on the Weekly chart. 

On the day, all 10 sectors are firmly in the red.  The Energy and Industrials sectors led the way lower while Comm. Services and Consumer Defensive held up the best.  SPY fell 1.18%, DIA lost 0.76%, and QQQ fell 0.66%.  The VXX gained 3.45% to 19.81 and T2122 dropped deep into the oversold territory at 5.87.  10-year bond yields are back down to 3.453% and Oil (WTI) is mostly flat at $85.28/barrel.  So, overall, it has been a fearful and yet undecided day in the market as most eyes focus on the Fed decision coming this week.

In Economic news, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Expectations came in slightly above expectations (59.9 vs 59.7 forecast) while current Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in below estimates (59.5 versus 60.0 forecast).  Bloomberg also reported interesting news about the housing markets that points toward the bifurcation of the economy.  If seems that in July nearly one-third of home purchases came in all-cash deals (buyers who paid cash and did not need a mortgage).  Records for such things are not kept, but this seems like a huge percentage. On Saturday, GS cut its US Economic Growth forecast for 2023 from 1.5% to 1.1% after it raised its terminal Fed Rate to 4.25% (Fed Funds have priced in 4.5% terminal).  Finally, in what points toward a downturn, WBD has fired 100 television ad salesmen as NFLX also announced another round of 300 terminations in a cost containment move.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, Reuters reported that the details of SEC accounting guidance for any companies that hold cryptocurrency assets (announced on the last day of March) are now fleshed out.  These additional costs and capital reserve holding requirements have caused major lenders (GS, JPM, BK, WFC, STT, etc.) to put cryptocurrency projects on hold (or outright canceled).  After the close Friday, US Dept. of Justice officials have asked the court to take part in oral arguments in the Court of Appeals in the Epic Games vs. AAPL antitrust lawsuit. The DOJ is expected to be on the Epic side, but neither party objected to the DOJ request.  Also, after the close, BMY and ABBV both announced minor job cuts (360 for both companies combined).  On Saturday, the ECB asked AMZN and 4 European companies to submit proposals for the creation of a new Digital-Euro (cryptocurrency). This is part of a two-year prototyping and investigation phase of the project.

In Energy news, Germany took control of a major Russian-owned oil refinery Friday.  (This was the Schwedt refinery owned by Rosneft.  This refinery supplies 90% of the fuel used in Berlin.)  Meanwhile, on Sunday, China’s August gasoline exports were reported as almost double (+97.4%), while its LNG imports for the month fell 28.1% from a year earlier.  Overnight, Bloomberg reported that after a Russian Gazprom unit (seized by Germany earlier this year after the invasion) canceled shipments to India, GAIL India has been forced to buy 3 LNG tankers (for October to November delivery) on the open market, paying twice the price it had previously paid Russia.

In miscellaneous news, the Fed is not the only central bank looking at rate hikes this week.  Japan, the UK, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and several other countries all have rate meetings set for this week.  While the Fed is widely expected to continue the inflation-fighting theme with another 0.75% hike, much of the rest of the world (especially places like the Philippines, Indonesia, and even Turkey) is likely to take a softer approach.  (Counting on the US and EU to do the heavy lifting on taming global inflation.)  Speaking of Taiwan, overnight President Biden answered an interview question, stating that the US forces would defend Taiwan from “any unprecedented attack.”  (That was the fifth time he has made a similar statement on Taiwan since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.) Finally, note that the UK markets are closed for the Queen’s funeral and Japan is also closed for a national holiday.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board.  Only India (+0.52%) and Thailand (+0.07%) were able to manage to hang onto the green.  Meanwhile, South Korea (-1.14%), Malaysia (-1.08%), and Hong Kong (-1.04%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see a similar story taking shape at mid-day.  Only Russia (+0.30%) is holding green.  At the same time, the DAX (-0.69%), and CAC (-1.23%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.85% open, the SPY is implying a -0.87% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.92% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up to 3.506% (the highest level since 2011) and Oil (WT) is down almost 2% to $83.55/barrel in early trading.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for Monday are limited to AZO before the open.  (AZO reported a beat on both the top and bottom lines early today.)

In economic news later this week, Tuesday we get August Building Permits, August Housing Starts, and API Weekly Crude Oil Inventories.  Then Wednesday, August Existing Home Sales, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Interest Rate Projections, Fed Rate Decision, Fed Statement, Fed Economic Projections, and the Fed Chair Press Conference all are reported.  On Thursday, we get Q2 Current Account and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.  Finally, on Friday, we see Mfg. PMI, Service PMI, and Fed Chair Powell speaks again.

In earnings reports later this week, AJG and SFIX report Tuesday.  Then Wednesday, GIS, FUL, KGH, LEN, SCS, and TCOM report.  On Thursday, we hear from ACN, DRI, FDS, AIR, COST, and FDX report.  Finally, on Friday there are no major earnings reports scheduled.

The downtrend continues with the gap lower looking to take at least the SPY and QQQ indices down near to a potential support level. With that said, and while there may be some movement today, many traders are going to be waiting to see whether the Fed gives us any surprises. (Talking heads are all over the place, calling for every scenario from +0.25% to +1.00% on Wednesday. However, traders have priced in +0.75% judging by the Fed Funds Futures.)

The major indices are extended to the downside at this point, far below their T-line and with T2122 deep into the oversold territory. However, we have seen indecision (more wick than candle body) the last 3 days (as well as in the premarket session today). So, expect some volatility after the gap lower…but also be prepared if the market goes dead while traders begin waiting on the FOMC. All we can do is trade the chart (the actual price action) and not what you predict will happen.

Remember that trading is our job, not a pastime or hobby. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Tade Ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks gapped lower at the open Thursday (0.14% in DIA, 0.44% in SPY, and 0.89% in QQQ).  Price then proceeded to meander sideways in a fairly tight range until 2 pm, when the bears took over to drive the market to new lows at about 3:30 pm.  However, a slight rally in the last 30 minutes took us out not far up off the lows. This left us with black, Inverted Hammer type (maybe you’d call QQQ a spinning Top) candles in the 3 major indices.  In addition, all 3 indices have either broken out of or are now right at the breakout level of, their “dreaded h” patterns.  So, the bears will have the wind at their back on Friday.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red.  Healthcare (+0.20%) was really the only sector managing to stay green along with Financial Service (+0.01%) while Energy (-2.33%) and Utilities (-2.32%) were by far the weakest.  The SPY closed down 1.14%, DIA lost 0.54%, and QQQ lost 1.67%.  The VXX ended up 0.31% to 19.15 and T2122 remains in the oversold territory at 13.24.  10-year bond yields are climbing to 3.449% and Oil (WTI) is down just under 4% to $85.09/barrel.  So, overall, it was an indecisive day until the bulls ran out of gas mid-afternoon and the bears took over to take us out near the lows.

In Economic news, August Retail Sales grew 0.3%, but some of that increase was in inflated prices rather than additional purchases.  Weekly Jobless Claims came in a bit lower than expected at 213k (226k forecast).  Meanwhile, both the Philly Fed Mfg. (at -9.9 vs. +2.8 forecast) and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (-1.50 vs -13.00 forecast) came in negative with Philly coming in lower than expected and NY coming in above the expectation.  August Exports were down 1.6% while Imports were down 1.0%.  July Business and Retail Inventories came in as expected.  However, August Industrial Production came in below expectations (-0.2% vs. +0.1% forecast).  So, overall, we had mixed results in terms of what the Fed may make of economic growth (if they were to just look at today’s data).

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In stock news, after hours, FDX withdrew its 2023 forward guidance while saying it expects a global recession next year. The company also warned it will be adversely impacted by global softness in shipments in the current quarter, citing Asia and Europe in particular for economic weakness.  FDX said it now estimates Q1 could come in at $3.44 EPS (far below the current consensus of $5.14).  FDX stock was down 16% in past-market trade on the news.  Elsewhere, 6 companies announced share repurchase plans today.  (TXN announced a dividend increase as well as an additional $15 billion on top of the existing plan of $8.2 billion for share buybacks.  KFRC announced an unspecified repurchase authorization during the period September 16 – November 2, 2022.  MQ authorized $100 million in share buybacks.  ARW added $600 million to its existing buyback program.  OLP declared a $0.45 quarterly dividend and approved a small $5.2 million addition to its remaining $2.3 million repurchase program.  And JG authorized $5 million of share buybacks over the next year.) Meanwhile, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau announced it will start regulating “buy now, pay later” companies like AAPL, SQ, PYPL, and AFRM.

In Energy news, the deal to avert a rail strike hit oil hard on Thursday.  This caused the “crack spread” (refiner profit margin) to close at its lowest level since March.  Elsewhere, Germany is now in advanced takeover talks with the 3 major gas-importing companies in that country (Uniper SE, CNG AG, and Securing Energy…which was formerly Gazprom Germania).  Finally, on Thursday the Biden Administration announced a plan to accelerate Off-Shore Floating Wind Electrical Generation, setting a new goal of 15 gigawatts of floating offshore capacity by 2035 as part of the broader (and nearer) goal of having 30 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity in production by 2030.  (The latter goal includes floating as well as anchored wind farms.)  Companies in that space include NEE, NEP, GE, WNDY, TPIC, and the etf FAN.

In China news, Asia woke up to a raft of Chinese Economic Reports.  Among these were August Housing Prices (-1.3%), August Industrial Production (+4.2%, beating estimates of +3.8%), August Retail Sales (+5.4%, beating estimates of +3.5%), and August Unemployment (5.3%, down slightly).  These reports did nothing to improve the hopes for a second-half recovery as the Chinese Property slump/debacle and new Covid-19 lockdowns continue to rock the second largest economy in the world.  This came a day after Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Putin (and reportedly raised concerns over the Russian invasion and losses they have suffered).  Finally, in a bid to bolster US competitive advantage, guarantee sources, and limit the transfer of technologies, President Biden issued an executive order that expanded the regulatory duties and power of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US.  The order requires them to block foreign acquisitions and investments by countries (especially China) with adversarial aims into US technology firms (especially AI, microelectronics, biotech, quantum computing, clean energy technologies, etc.).  However, the order does not regulate “outbound investment” of American companies in China, which has been a major source of lost intellectual property in the past.  (China requires foreign companies operating in China to turn over trade secrets and data.)

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board.  The lone holdout was Singapore (+0.01%) which hung onto the green by its fingernails.  Meanwhile, it was  Shanghai (-2.30%), Shenzhen (-2.30%), and India (-1.52%) leading the region lower.  In Europe, a similar picture is taking shape at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.12%) is the only real green in the region while the DAX (-1.45%) and CAC (-1.30%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap down to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.72% open, the SPY is implying a -0.80% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.95% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up to 2.469% and Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent to $85.62/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday are limited to the Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  Friday is also Quadruple Witching, so watch for pinning action.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.

Thursday’s action and the futures this morning suggest we are headed down to retest the July lows. However, most eyes are trained on the FOMC and traders are trying to prejudge what the Fed will do next week. Talking heads can’t make up their minds with some calling for a 1.00% increase while others say we need to ease off the increases and go 0.50% or even 0.25% this month. The Fed gets the only vote and all we know for sure is that they have been talking in such a way as to suggest 0.75% and that is what is baked into the Fed Funds Futures.

With that backdrop, we should note that the bears clearly have control. However, the gap lower implied by futures will put us pretty extended from both the T-line and in terms of the T2122 reading. So far, the potential support levels don’t seem to be helping the bulls hold the line and fight bearish momentum. All we can do is trade the chart (the actual price action) and not what you predict will happen. Still, keep in mind that it is Friday and that means it’s time to consider the weekend news cycle. Do you need to take profits, hedge, or reduce your position sizes? Think about it.

Remember that trading is our job, not a pastime or hobby. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DXD, JDST, LABD, SPXS, FAZ, ERY, SPXU, DRIP, SQQQ, FNGD, DOG, SDOW, QID, RWM, SQXS, TZA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service