Friday was a day of reckoning for markets are all 3 major indices opened flat and traded that way until Fed Chair Powell began to speak.  However, when he did begin to speak, it was immediately apparent that Powell was not going to tell the Bulls what they had hoped to hear (that inflation was coming down and the Fed could ease up on the tightening).  So, we saw massive volatility in the 10 minutes after Powell started speaking and then a brutal selloff the rest of the day (especially from 10am -11am) from that point.  This gave us a huge Bearish Engulfing signal in the DIA and just big, ugly black candles in the SPY and QQQ.  Obviously, all 3 major indices failed their T-lines (8ema) during the day, but all 3 are also now extended well below those 8ema levels.

All 10 sectors are well into the red with Technology, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials leading the way lower on a risk-off day.  On the day, SPY lost 3.38%, DIA lost 3.07%, and QQQ lost 4.10%.  The VXX has gained over 2.25% to pop back up to 20.15 and T2122 has fallen all the way from overbought to well oversold at 7.87.  10-year bond yields pulled back to be slightly down (after rising overnight) at 3.028% and Oil (WTI) was down 0.5% to $92.99/ barrel.  Basically, the Bulls wanted Powell to tell them that the Fed can take its foot off the gas on tightening, but instead he was adamant that the rate increases will continue, and higher rates will persist “for some time.”  In fact, he told us to expect some pain ahead with higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor markets all required to bring down inflation.  Basically, that was a gut punch for the traders who have been chasing growth.

In China stock news, Beijing and Washington reached a preliminary deal that will allow SEC officials to review the audit documentation of 163 businesses that the SEC identified at high risk of US trading prohibition.  This is a good first step in avoiding the delisting of those companies from the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges.  Some of those major tickers potentially saved include BABA, JD, BIDU, PDD, NIO, YUMC, PTR, EDU, etc.

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In food/agriculture/consumer news, a new forecast revision released Friday shows that drought and heatwaves have slashed US corn yield expectations for the fall.  The revisions are now expecting more than a 4% yield reduction versus last year, taking the crop total down to 2019 levels.  This does not sound like a huge issue, but add to that some very similar climate change problems in Europe and China, as well as the Russian invasion taking 20% of Ukrainian cropland out of production.  The end result will be shortages and higher food prices expected toward year-end.  Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat are the primarily-impacted grains with Beef, Hog, and Chicken meats impacted in turn (all are heavily grain fed).  This will have a big impact on consumer defensive input prices and consumer inflation this year.  However, the problem may well be made worse in 2023 because the Russian aggression has also cut natural gas supplies, lowering global fertilizer production (as much as 50% for Nitrogen-based fertilizer).  This is expected to lower next year’s crop yields globally an unspecified, but very significant amount as well.  (Global crop yields have dramatically increased ever since the early 1970s. This has kept food expenses a low percentage of the consumer’s budget, and freed up money for all sorts of previously unfeasible consumer spending (especially in North America and Europe). This all happened on the back of very cheap and widely-available nitrogen-based fertilizers. If that paradigm changes, you can bet consumer spending habits will also need to change…therefore reshaping stock market leadership. (All grain using tickers and as a result, the consumer spending on non-essentials will be hit significantly.)

In legal news, on Friday, a judge rules that MMM cannot use bankruptcy to avoid liability over selling defective earplugs to the US military.  MMM was down 12% on the news. On Saturday, META agreed in principle to an undisclosed settlement of a lawsuit in US Federal Court seeking damages for allowing third parties (such as the infamous Cambridge Analytica) to access uses private data.  Finally, also on Saturday, the USDOT temporarily waived truck driver hours of service restrictions.  This came after a fire took an Indiana BP refinery offline Wednesday causing the need for much more fuel trucking in the Midwest.

In market trends, Bloomberg reports that “meme stocks” are here to stay. In a weekend survey of 522 investors, two-thirds expect the speculative meme stock phenomenon to be here to stay (based on easy/rapid internet communications).  Elsewhere, Reuters reports that funds are heeding Powell’s Friday message and sticking to the old “Don’t fight the Fed” mantra.  At this point, traders have amassed the largest short position on 3-month Fed Rate Futures, having doubled in the last month and gained 100,000 contracts Friday.  (Traders are betting short-term bonds will fall in value as yields and interest rates rise.)  In short, markets believed Chair Powell and expect more bear market pain.

So far this morning, PDD reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, CTLT missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  CTLT also lowered its forward guidance when it reported.

Overnight, Asian markets were deeply in the red.  Japan (-2.66%), Taiwan (-2.31%), and South Korea (-2.18%) led the region lower as Asia played catch-up to the North American route from Friday.  In Europe, we see the same story (with the lone exception of a green Russia +0.67%) at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.70%), DAX (-1.24%), and CAC (-1.90%) are leading the wave of red across that region in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a significant gap lower to start the week.  The DIA implies a -0.87% open, the SPY is implying a -0.94% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.13% open at this hour.  In addition, 10-year bond yields are up sharply to 3.11% and Oil (WTI) is up a half of a percent in early trading.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include CTLT, HTHT, and PDD before the open.  Then, after the close, HRI and YY report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, July JOLTs, and a Fed speaker (Williams).  Then Wednesday we see ADP Nonfarm Payrolls, Chicago PMI, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and another Fed speaker (Mester).  On Thursday Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Q2 Unit Labor Costs, PMI Mfg., and ISM Mfg. PMI are reported.  Finally, on Friday we get Aug Avg. Hourly Earnings, Aug. Nonfarm Payrolls, Aug. Participation Rate, Aug. Unemployment Rate, July Factory Orders.

In earnings later this week, Tuesday we hear from BIDU, BMO, BBY, BIG, FUTU, IQ, AMRK, CHWY, CRWD, HPE, HPQ, and PVH.  Then Wednesday we get reports from BF.A/B, CHS, DBI, DCI, and EXPR.  On Thursday, FLWS, CPB, CIEN, GCO, GMS, MOMO, HRL, OLLI, PDCO, SAIC, SIG, TTC, WB, AVGO, JOAN, and LULU report. Finally, Friday there are no major reports.

Friday is a prime example of what happens when the market really wants to hear something. Mr. Market can really throw a tantrum when he doesn’t get what he wants/expects. However, we need to remember that the base case of markets is that they overreact, overreact to the overreaction, and then react again. That is what causes the unmistakable stairstep, zig-zag, or wave movements of price. So, at this point, we are back in a bear market…but we are over-extended to the downside in the short term. That doesn’t mean we have to rest or relief rally today…but it raises the probabilities. Just be wary of chasing gaps and run-away to the downside. Volatility is still high and traders have had a weekend to gather their wits and nerve since the unexpected bad news.

Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: UXVY, SQQQ, SPXU, QID, PSQ, SNAP, MRVL, SNOW. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Thursday, the SPY and QQQ gapped higher while the DIA opened flat. From there, all 3 major indices made a morning rally to the highs of the day at about 11 am. However, once again the whipsaw kicked in and a selloff took all 3 indices back down to the open value or below in just 30 minutes before grinding sideways for a couple of hours.  At that point, the bulls rallied us back up to within shouting distance of the highs (or to new Highs in the DIA) again by 2:30 pm.  Finally, a very strong rally in the last 45 minutes tool all 3 major indices out on their highs.  This action is giving us white-bodied candles in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  The QQQ and SPY both crossed back above their T-line (8ema) and the DIA is right at that level at the close.

All 10 sectors are green with Basic Materials, Technology, and Consumer Cyclical leading the way higher.  On the day, SPY gained 1.41%, DIA gained 1.00%, and QQQ gained 1.77%.  The VXX is down 0.51% to 19.70 and T2122 crossed back up into the overbought territory at 83.95.  10-year bond yields fell back to 3.03% and Oil (WTI) fell 2.09% to $92.91/barrel.  Once again, this all took place on below-average volume.

In economic news, Q2 GDP came in a -0.6% which was better than the -0.8% forecast as well as Q1’s -0.9% print.  Weekly Initial Jobless Claims also came in better than was expected at 243k (versus 253k consensus forecast) as well as slightly better than last week’s 245k number.  In the afternoon, Fed Hawk Bullard told CNBC that he expects high inflation to persist and that interest rates are not yet high enough to begin curbing price increases.  He went on to say he favors front-loading rate hikes and hopes to convince peers to vote for a benchmark rate of between 3.75% to 4.00% by year-end.  Other Fed voters at Jackson Hole said that whether there will be a 0.75% or 0.50% hike in September is not decided yet and will depend on the 2 additional inflation and multiple jobs reports before the meeting. However, rates still need to rise to fight inflation.

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On Thursday, AMZN announced they had struck a deal with hydrogen fuel cell maker PLUG to supply power to forklifts, long-haul trucks, and building operations starting in 2025.  Part of the deal included PLUG giving AMZN a warrant to buy up to 16 million shares of PLUG with an exercise price of $22.98.  (PLUG closed the day at $30.00.)  AMZN also agreed to spend at least $2.1 billion on PLUG products over the 7-year contract.  Later in the day, the California Air Resources Board voted to require all new cars sold in the state to be electric or electric hybrid by 2035.  However, these regulations must still be approved by the US EPA.

In energy news, Reuters reported Thursday evening that ERCOT (the Texas Power Grid operator) has spent an additional $1 billion to avoid blackouts this summer.  This comes in the form of rewards for industrial customers to cut usage, paying power generators a premium to maintain higher reserves (production capacity).  The state set 11 demand records so far this summer.  Elsewhere, OPEC+ is seeing more support for Saudi Arabia’s stated plan to curb oil supplies to “stabilize world oil markets.”  Iraq, Algeria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Venezuela, Equatorial Guinea, Congo, Azerbaijan, and Libya all endorsed the plan to cut OPEC+ production.  (Clarity on the move should be seen on this plan on September 5 when the group meets again.)  Overnight, the UK Energy Regulator announced that they expect Britons to pay as much as three times last year’s price to heat their homes this coming winter (including an 80% hike in October). Meanwhile, Germany is looking at restricting companies able to benefit from higher natural gas prices amidst public outcry over record energy company profits and soaring consumer costs.

In miscellaneous market news, Texas accused BLK, CS, UBS and other European-listed financial companies of boycotting the state’s huge fossil fuel industry.  (This is part of the state’s anti-ESG investing campaign.)  The state claims it may divest billions of dollars in state pension funds from those companies and their funds.  This may have big market price impacts on those stocks.  For example, the Texas School Teach Retirement fund currently owns large positions in BLK. In unrelated news, after the close Thursday, the CBOE announced that it is in talks with IBKR, HOOD, VIRT and others about taking equity stakes in the recently purchased ErisX crypto exchange (to be renamed CBOE Digital). In telecom news, late last night, Elon Musk (SpaceX) and TMUS announced a joint venture aimed at eliminating cellular dead zones. This backup network will only be available to TMUS customers and initially will only cover SMS messages. However, the (at least initially) no-cost backup service will later be upgraded to cover voice calls and video streaming.

After the close Thursday, GPS, VMW, ULTA, and FTCH all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, DELL and MRVL both missed on revenue while also beating on earnings.  On the other side, WDAY beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the upside on mostly modest moves.  Shenzhen (-0.37%), Shanghai (-0.31%), and New Zealand (-0.16%) were the losing exchanges.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (+1.01%), Australia (+0.79%), and Japan (+0.57%) paced the remaining, gaining exchanges in the region.  In Europe, stocks are mixed, but leaning red at mid-day, but again on mostly modest moves.  Denmark (-1.30%) is an outlier.  However, the FTSE (+0.04%), DAX (-0.41%), and CAC (-0.33%) are leading the region in a modest move lower in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a lower start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.29% open, the SPY is implying a -0.42% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.57% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 3.071% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.3% to $93.74 in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday include July PCE Price Index, July Personal Spending, July Trade Goods Balance, and July Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 am), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am), and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium continues with Fed Chair Powell Speaking (at 10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to JKS before the open.  There are no reports after the close.

Markets will have their eyes focused on Fed Chair Powell’s speech this morning. While he is very unlikely to tell the bulls what they want to hear, the bears are also not going to get everything they want. Expect him to say some version of “it will depend on coming data” when he addresses September Fed actions. Premarket action is looking like a battle around the T-line in all 3 major indices as traders wake up to a modestly down “wait and see” market. The pullback was broken (at least temporarily) on Thursday. However, the new short-term bullish trend is not running rampant yet. So, caution is in order, volatility is expected, and even if we get a good clue from Powell…it is Friday with a long weekend news cycle ahead.

Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened flat on Wednesday before making a morning run up to the highs at noon.  Then the whipsaw kicked in and all 3 major averages sold off back down near the open shortly after 1:30 pm.  From there we saw an oscillating sideways grind in a tight range.  However, Mr. Market gave us one last rally and then selloff starting at 3 pm which left us mid-way between the open and highs as of the close.  This action gave us a white-bodied, Spinning Top type of candle in all the major indices.  The QQQ and DIA both held their 34ema as support on the day. 

All 10 sectors were in the green, with the Energy, Healthcare, and Consumer Cyclical sectors leading the way higher.  On the day, SPY gained 0.31%, DIA gained 0.24%, and QQQ gained 0.29%.  The VXX fell 1.69% to 19.80 and T2122 is back in the mid-range at 51.77.  10-year bond yields climbed to 3.111% and Oil (WTI) is up another 1.71% to $95.34/barrel.  All-in-all, this was another indecisive, low-volume day where markets have held support but haven’t really started back up yet.

In economic news, July Durable Goods Orders came in below consensus forecasts at dead flat.  This was below the +0.6% forecast and well below June’s +2.0% number.  July Pending Home Sales were also down.  However, the -1.0% was well above the -4.0% forecast and much better than June’s -8.9% number.   EIA Crude Oil Inventories came in down 3.282 million barrels (on increased exports, hitting a new all-time high) and this was a far bigger drawdown than the -0.933 million barrels forecast, but still much better than the previous week’s 7.056-million-barrel drawdown.  Also, during the day, President Biden announced the administration will forgive $20,000 in student loan debt for Pell Grant recipients and $10,000 in federal loan debt for others with income of less than $125,000.

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In another blow to the stock, the TWTR whistleblower mentioned in yesterday’s blog is now scheduled to speak before the US Senate on September 13.  This can’t help but lead to attacks from Senators eager to reign in big tech (as well as those just wanting to make headlines less than 2 months prior to the mid-term election). In other big tech news, AAPL invited the press to a “big announcement” on September 7. It has been y rumored the company will announce its new iPhone 14 line on that day.  Elsewhere, GOOGL is launching an ad campaign to fight disinformation in parts of Europe.  The pilot program spots (which will run on GOOGL search, TWTR, META, and TikTok) aim to help people identify emotional manipulation, scapegoating, and fake information in posts and media reports.  Initially, the campaigns will run in Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.

In energy and consumer news, Bloomberg reported Wednesday that 20 million US homes (1 in 6 homes) are behind in payments of their energy bills.  This has been caused by surging electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil prices.  This is expected to get worst as we head into colder months.  Specifically, California’s PCG has seen a 40% rise in residential delinquencies and New Jersey’s PEG reports a 30% rise in customers who are more than 90-days late…just since March.  Meanwhile, as mentioned above, US exports of Oil and distillates hit an all-time high of more than 11 million barrels per day last week.  This is especially interesting since a fire at the main US LNG export terminal will keep that facility (and thus US exports of LNG) offline until November.

After the close Wednesday, CRM, WSM, NTAP, ADSK, and SPLK all reported beating on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, VSCO missed on revenue while beating on the bottom line.  On the other side, GES and SNOW both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, NVDA missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is also worth noting that SPLK raised forward guidance while CRM and NVDA both lowered their forecasts.

So far this morning, TD, DG, CM, COTY, and TITN all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  At the same time, BURL missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, PTON and HAIN missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that BURL and PTON also lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side.  Hong Kong (+3.63%) was an outlier, up hard after being halted in the morning for a typhoon warning and later resuming trade in the afternoon.  However, Malaysia (+1.92%), South Korea (+1.22%), and Shanghai (+0.97%) led the region higher.  In Europe, stocks are nearly green across the board at mid-day.  Only Switzerland (-0.01%) shows any red at all.  Meanwhile, the FTSE (+0.19%), DAX (+0.28%), and CAC (+0.06%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.28% open, the SPY is implying a +0.53% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.71% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down slightly to 3.098% and Oil (WTI) is flat in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday include Q2 GDP Revision and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium begins (at 9 am).  However, Fed Chair Powell does not speak until Friday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ANF, BURL, CM, COTY, DG, DLTR, GFI, GOGL, HAIN, PTON, and TD before the open.  Then, after the close, DELL, FTCH, GPS, MRVL, ULTA, VMW, and WDAY report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, we get July PCE Price Index, July Personal Spending, July Trade Goods Balance, July Retail Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium continues with Fed Chair Powell Speaking. On the earnings front, JKS reports before the open Friday.

As markets grind toward getting their clue from Fed Chair Powell, the Jackson Hole Conference starts today with other Central Bankers speaking. New Chinese stimulus, in the form of government spending (which will amount to almost 1% of Chinese GDP), has given bulls an overnight shot in the arm. However, as stated before, don’t be surprised with a “wait and see” attitude in the market until Powell speaks on Friday. Premarket prices look like we will be gapping higher and may retest the T-line in the major indices. However, those prices have also fallen back from earlier highs as traders remembered they were waiting on Powell. There is no denying that it looks like the pullback has paused and just maybe started to reverse. There is potential support levels below, the broken mid-term trend was bullish, and the broken longer-term trend was bearish. So, caution is in order, and volatility is to be expected. However, China is giving us a little lift early today.

Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ACAD, DM, CGC, AA, ALB, MRO, OKE, X, SNOW. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Tuesday, stocks opened the day basically flat and then oscillated up and down around the small gap all day long.  The DIA had a slightly more bearish trend to the oscillation, but all 3 major indices gave us indecisive Spinning Top or Doji type of candles.  This also sets up a potential Morning Star type of pattern in all 3.  The QQQ held its 34ema as support on the day.  Six of the 10 sectors were green on the day.  However, Energy (+3.12%) was by far the biggest mover to the upside and Communication Services (-1.01%) was the big loser on the day.

On the day, SPY lost 0.25%, DIA lost 0.50%, and QQQ lost 0.08%.  The VXX fell more than 5% to 20.14 and T2122 climbed back out of the oversold territory to 34.76.  10-year bond yields rose to 3.065% and Oil (WTI) spiked upward 3.55% to $93.57/barrel.  All-in-all, it was an indecisive day on very low volume. It sure seems like Mr. Market was waiting on more clues.

In economic news, the Mfg. PMI came in a bit below estimates Tuesday.  However, the Services PMI came in 10.5% below forecasts.  July New Home Sales also came in down 12.6%, indicating a significant pullback by potential homebuyers.  All this bad news actually buoyed markets mid-morning as traders seemed to project that this is the kind of news that would give the Fed cover to reduce the rate hike expected in September.  After the close, API reported Weekly Crude Oil stock fell 5.6 million barrels as US exports were dramatically higher.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

TWTR had a rough day Tuesday, closing down 7.32% on heavier than normal volume.  This came after it was reported that the company’s former head of cybersecurity became a whistleblower and reported to the SEC that TWTR “engaged in extreme, egregious deficiencies in privacy, security, spam, and content modernization.”  The report also alleged TWTR made misrepresentations to Elon Musk, which may impact TWTR’s lawsuit to force Musk to either buy TWTR or pay a $1 billion back-out fee.  In the complaint filed with the SEC, the whistleblower alleges he witnessed senior TWTR executives engage in deceitful and misleading communications with the company board, shareholders, and the public.  This included the CEO asking the whistleblower to provide false and misleading documents.  The complaint alleges that after refusing to comply, he was terminated.

In auto industry news, at the close, TM announced they are recognizing California’s authority to set vehicle emissions standards and dropping out of the action by fellow automakers and the former Trump administration to sue in order to block the state’s regulations.  This makes TM eligible for California state fleet purchases and follows in the footsteps of GM, F, HMC, BMW, and Volkswagen who did the same earlier this year.

Six months after Russia’s invasion, the fighting continues in Ukraine, just at a less frantic pace.  On Tuesday, the US State Dept. urged US citizens to leave Ukraine as it expects heavy attacks by Russian missiles, rockets, and artillery on civilian targets in the next few days.  This is because today is Ukrainian flag day and Thursday is Ukrainian National Independence Day.  Russia also resumed shelling very near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (the largest in Europe).  On Tuesday, that shelling killed one plant worker.  In the US, Congress is set to approve an additional $3 billion in weapons including HiMARs (made by LM), Howitzers and ammunition (made by GD), etc.

In earnings news, after the close Tuesday, JWN, INTU, TOL, CAL, and LZB all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, AAP missed on the revenue line while reporting in-line earnings. On the other side, SCSC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, URBN missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.  It is also worth noting that JWN, AAP, and TOL all lowered forward guidance while SCSC raised their 2022 guidance.  So far this morning, RY, IIVI, and DY have all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, EAT reported a beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, WOOF missed on both lines.  Of those, EAT has lowered forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the downside.  Shenzhen (-2.88%), Shanghai (-1.86%), and Hong Kong (-1.20%) led the region lower.  In Europe, stocks are mixed on modest moves at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.50%), DAX (-0.10%), and CAC (+0.09%) are leading the mixed bag in that region in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open (before data).  The DIA implies a -0.02% open, the SPY is implying an unchanged open, and the QQQ implies a -0.03% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are flat and Oil (WTI) is up another 1% in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday include July Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am), July Pending Home Sales (10 am), Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and a 5-year Bond Auction (1 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include Wednesday we get reports from EAT, DY, IIVI, WOOF, and RY before the open.  Then, after the close, ADSK, GES, NTAP, NVDA, CRM, SPLK, VSCO, and WSM report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get a Q2 GDP Revision, Weekly Jobless Claims, and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium begins.  Finally, on Friday, we get July PCE Price Index, July Personal Spending, July Trade Goods Balance, July Retail Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium continues with Fed Chair Powell Speaking.

In earnings later this week, on Thursday we hear from ANF, BURL, CM, COTY, DG, DLTR, GFI, GOGL, HAIN, PTON, TD, DELL, FTCH, GPS, MRVL, ULTA, VMW, and WDAY.  Finally, on Friday, JKS reports.

Markets are seemingly pausing to wait on more clues. Many talking-heads believe that news would be Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday morning. Regardless of whether that is the shoe Mr. Market is waiting on to drop, all we can do is trade the chart in front of us. Premarkets have recovered from earlier lows. However, there is no denying that the short-term trend is down with potential support levels below, the broken mid-term trend was bullish, and the broken longer-term trend was bearish. So, caution is in order, and volatility (both intraday and weekly) is to be expected.

Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The bears started the week off with a roar as stocks gapped 1.2% – 1.5% lower at the open Monday.  The bulls never found their footing as prices slowly worked their way lower from the open to reach the lows about 3:45 pm.  Nine of the10 sectors are lower, with Consumer Cyclicals and Technology taken the worst hit (both down more than 2.6%) while Energy was the only sector to barely stay green.  All 3 indices also gave up their T-line (8ema) and 20sma levels as the uptrend line is now clearly broken.  The QQQ is even testing its 34ema for support at the moment. 

All-in-all, it was a strong bear day with a large gap and strong black candle in all the major indices.  On the day, DIA closed down 1.85%, SPY closed down 2.06%, and QQQ was down 2.63%.  Interestingly, VXX was basically flat at 21.22 and 10-year bond yields rose only slightly to 3.029%, indicating traders are not out buying up bonds (which would be normal on a big “risk off” day).  However, T2122 now shows the market is in oversold territory at 19.20, and Oil (WTI) is off just marginally to $90.67/barrel.

In general stock news, F announced 3,000 salaried and contracts job cuts (across North America and India) as part of a restructuring to move more into the electric vehicle market.  Elsewhere, workers at a GE plant in Alabama have launched a union initiative.  (A vote has not yet been authorized by the NLRB, pending the count of submitted union request cards.)  In the healthcare space, PFE and BNTX filed with the FDA for authorization to ship a Covid-19 booster specifically formulated to target the Omicron variant.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In meme stock news, AMC gapped down 36%, traded in a 27% range, and closed down 42% on the day.   This came after a rival (Regal, which is UK-based) warned of bankruptcy over the weekend and the AMC company distributed what it calls “APE Units” as a dividend over the weekend.  The issuance of APE units are similar to a 2-for-1 stock split.  Another meme stock, BBBY fell more than 16% Monday in follow-through to Friday’s 41% loss.

In energy news, Oil recovered Monday after Saudi Oil Minister bin Salman said the commodity’s futures were detached from fundamentals.  He also said OPEC+ may cut production output if the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal (which allows Iran to export oil) is reinstated.  However, the offset to this news is that Iran has said it can quickly double its 3.8 million barrels per day production if sanctions were lifted.  Elsewhere, COP won an appeal of the $8.7 billion it was awarded by the World Bank Tribunal in 2019.  (This includes over $1 billion in interest on the amount owed since the original award.)  The claim stems from Venezuela’s nationalization of COP’s assets in the country back in 2007.

In economic news, the Equipment Leasing and Finance Assn. (ELFA) said that business borrowing to lease equipment rose 2% in July.  This saw the association’s economic confidence index rise to 50. (Any reading above 50 indicates a positive outlook for the economy.)  In addition, the dollar continues to be extremely strong.  The Euro now trades at 0.993 per dollar and the British Pound is trading at 1.177/dollar making US exports more expensive, but also imports and commodities cheaper.

After the close Monday, NDSN and PANW both beat on the top and bottom lines.  At the same time, ZM reported a miss on revenue while beating on earnings.  So far this morning, JD, MDT, BNS, M, BEKE, SJM, DKS, and XPEV have all posted beats to both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, M, BEKE, and XPEV all lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned strongly to the downside.  Thailand (+1.10%) and India (+0.50%) were the only green in the region.  Meanwhile, Australia (-1.21%), Japan (-1.19%), and South Korea (-1.10%) paced the losses across the region.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.40%), DAX (+0.09%), and CAC (-0.32%) are leading the region lower with only Russia (+1.17%) and a couple of the minor exchanges showing any strength in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat, but green, start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.08% open, the SPY is implying a +0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.12% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are flat at 3.02% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.90% to $92.03/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday include Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am), July New Home Sales, (10 am), and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report (4:30 pm).  Fed member Kashkari also speaks at 7 pm.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BNS, DKS, DOLE, SJM, JD, BEKE, M, MDT, and XPEV before the open.  Then after the close, AAP, CAL, INTU, LZB, JWN, SCSC, TOL, and URBN report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, July Durable Goods Orders, July Pending Home Sales, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and 5-year Bond Auction are reported.  Then Thursday, we get a Q2 GDP Revision, Weekly Jobless Claims, and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium begins.  Finally, on Friday, we get July PCE Price Index, July Personal Spending, July Trade Goods Balance, July Retail Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium continues with Fed Chair Powell Speaking.

In earnings later this week, on Wednesday we get reports from EAT, CY, IIVI, WOOF, RY, ADSK, GES, NTAP, NVCA, CRM, SPLK, VSCO, and WSM.  Then Thursday we hear from ANF, BURL, CM, COTY, DG, DLTR, GFI, GOGL, HAIN, PTON, TD, DELL, FTCH, GPS, MRVL, ULTA, VMW, and WDAY.  Finally, on Friday JKS reports.

The bears ran wild on Monday, but the QQQ seems to be trying to hold its 34ema and the DIA may be trying to hold its own 20sma as support. The bulls will have a tailwind this morning from great earnings to start the day, but even in that victory, pessimists are looking at things like JD’s beats through a bearish lens. Plus, there is bad news in things like M cutting full-year guidance. Many traders are waiting to hear what Fed Chair Jerome Powell has to say in Jackson Hole on Friday before they take any firm view. Still, what they are trying to handicap is just whether the Fed will raise rates by 0.50% or 0.75% in September. Will Powell’s words really tell us anything a full month before the September 21 decisions date? And would that quarter of a percent make a huge difference? I don’t think so, but Mr. Market gets the only vote on both counts. With all of that said, the short-term trend is bearish and the mid-term bullish trend has been broken. So, we’re fast approaching levels of potential support, but need to reestablish a longer-term trend one way or the other. For now, the bias is bearish.

Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DVN, MRO, OXY, APA, MOS, XLE, XOM, EOG, VLO, DE, CVX, GM, NTR, KMI, PG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service