Bears took back control Friday as the Russian attack on a Ukrainian nuclear reactor site (causing fires) led to a 1% gap-down in the large-dap indices and two-thirds of a percent in the QQQ.  From there we had a roller-coaster ride the rest of the day that ended on an upswing the last 15 minutes.  This left us with gap-down Spinning Top type candles in all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY lost 0.81%, DIA lost 0.49%, and QQQ lost 1.45%.  The VXX rose over 4% to 26.20 and T2122 fell but remains in the middle of the range at 52.87.  10-year bond yields fell sharply to 1.736% and Oil (WTI) spiked over 7% to $115.37/barrel.

February Payrolls data came out on Friday.  The biggest news was Nonfarm Payrolls grew more than 50% more than expected (+687k vs +400k est.).  The Participation rate also inched up a tenth of a percent versus January.  However, Average Hourly Earnings grew less than expected (+5.1% vs. +5.8% expected) and continue to fall behind inflation.  Finally, the Unemployment Rate fell to 3.8% (versus 3.9% expected).   

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On the Russian Invasion/Sanctions front, Russia reneged twice on ceasefires for civilian evacuations of cities under bombardment, and the US is in talks with Poland and other NATO allies to give Ukraine F-16s, which the US would then replace. V, MA, and AXP all also turned off their payment networks in Russia. For his part, Putin signed a decree that forces creditors to set up bank accounts in Russia and accept payments in Russian Rubles for both sovereign and corporate debt.  The idea is to avoid defaults while also shifting the pain of sanctions onto Western creditors (who must now accept Rubles and then cannot move the money out of Russia).  It’s worth noting that Rosneft, Gazprom, the Railway, and the Russian government all have large dollar payments on outstanding debt due soon (about $800 billion in the next 30 days).  So, western funds, banks, or energy companies expecting payments, you not only can’t get the money you are “paid,” but those funds will also continue to depreciate as the Ruble loses value.

BBBY stock is surging in premarket (up as much as 80%) after it became known that the Chairman of GME owns as much as 10% of the BBBY stock. GME Chairman Ryan Cohen was formerly the founder of online retailer CHWY.  He wrote a letter to the BBBY board suggesting they selloff the BuyBuy Baby chain and consider taking the company private via sale to private equity firms.  However, he reiterated the main problems facing the company (supply chain issues and market share losses) can be solved longer-term.

Overnight, the Asian markets were down hard.  Hong Kong (-3.87%), Shenzhen (-3.43%), and Japan (-2.94%) led the carnage.  In Europe, markets are red at mid-day, but not as bleak as in Asia.  The FTSE (-0.30%), DAX (-1.11%), and CAC (-1.21%) lead because of their size, but some of the smaller exchanges are both much deeper in the red as well as even a couple are slightly in the green in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to another gap down.  The DIA implies a -0.78% open, the SPY is implying a -0.70% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.80% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are higher to 1.775% and Oil (WTI) has spiked another 4+% to $120.48/barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release on Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for release before the open are limited to AMR and CIEN.  Then after the close IEA reports.  

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Feb. The major economic news for later this week includes January Imports/Exports and Trade Balance on Tuesday.  Wednesday brings January JOLTS and Crude Oil Inventories.  Thursday brings inflation information with the February CPI as well as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the February Federal Budget Balance.  Finally, on Friday we get the Michigan Consumer Expectations. 

Once again markets are taking a beating as Russia continues to violate ceasefires and bomb civilian areas of major Ukrainian cities. Russian sanctions and the fallout (the IMF is now predicting a significant hit to global GDP) continue to lead markets lower, but volatility remains high and losses are uneven. So, remain very cautious. If you are trading, trade small, be nimble, and be prepared to accept volatility-caused pain.

Once again, ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Remember that you don’t have to trade every day (or even week) and you definitely don’t need to chase moves. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The back-and-forth volatility continued Thursday with a gap higher at the open in all 4 major indices, which was met immediately by a whipsaw-filled all-day selloff.  All 4 ended up closer to their lows than highs.  The SPY and IWM both printed Dark Cloud Cover signals, the QQQ printed a Bearish Engulfing, and the DIA nearly printed a Dark Cloud Cover.  On the day, SPY lost 0.48%, DIA lost 0.23%, QQQ lost 1.43%, and IWM lost 1.17%.  The VXX rose 1% to 25.15 and T2122 dropped back into the mid-range at 69.66.  10-year bond yields fell to 1.854% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2.23% (after having been up 2% early) to $108.28/barrel.

Again, the Russian invasion and sanctions remain the dominant story.  Overnight, Russia attacked (setting fire to) and seized the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Thankfully, Ukrainians safely shut down the plant after Russian attacks had caused fires (which are now under control).  Elsewhere, JPM says they expect the Russian economy to contract 35% in Q2 due to sanctions that are already in place. However, the EU is now seriously considering energy sanctions (in the wake of the nuclear plant attack) and analysts say it’s only a matter of time before Oil and Gas sanctions are added (those account for 60% of Russian exports).  So, let’s take a closer look at the state of the global oil market.   

Russia exports about 5 million barrels of oil per day plus 3 million barrels of other petroleum products (a total of about 13-15% of global petroleum exports).  If those were shut down, in terms of available replacements, the US has already added just under 1 million barrels/day since the beginning of the invasion. (Whether the US sees a longer-term capacity increase is another question.)  In addition, Saudi Arabia could easily increase output by 2-2.5 million barrels per day and UAE can add another million very quickly…if they could be persuaded to do so. If a deal were reached with Iran, they could also add another 1.5 million barrels of export capacity. However, even under that rosy scenario, that still leaves world markets about 3 million barrels/day short.  

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Still, the US only imports 5% of its daily requirement of oil.  So, a complete stoppage of Russian output would have a relatively minor impact on the US (gas prices).  Europe and Asia would be the places hit worst.  However, it’s possible that things would not get all that much worse than they are now.  The Financial Times reported that 70% of Russian Oil exports are already unable to find buyers as companies are trying to avoid connection to Russia right now.  If true, the world is already down about 5.6 million barrels/day and a maximum increase by the Saudis, UAE, and/or Iran would actually make things better than they are now in terms of oil supply…even if the other 3 million barrels of Russian exports are stopped.  (And they won’t be completely stopped as China will not play ball.)

The point of all this is that things are not as bad as they seem. However, oil markets are running rampant on fear of what might happen and chasing the non-Russian supplies for appearance’s sake even though no oil sanctions have been placed on Russia yet. So, oil prices could continue to climb, but at the moment there is a path to something closer to pre-invasion pricing…if the world will play ball. If not, we could easily see $150 oil at a point where Russian supply is shut down completely. However, we are nowhere near that place yet and at the moment, we are artificially inflating oil by avoiding Russian supply so that refiners don’t look bad.

After the close, COST, AVGO, GPS, MRVL, COO, and TWI all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, SQM, and AGL beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  However, VZIO and SWBI reported missed on both earnings and revenue.

Overnight, the Asian markets were red across the board.  Hong Kong (-2.50%), Japan (-2.23%), and India (-1.53%) led the region lower, but strong losses were widespread.  In Europe, we see an even worse picture at mid-day.  The FTSE (-3.40%), DAX (-3.60%), and CAC (-3.72%) are leading the continent lower in a dramatic fashion.  AS of 7:30 am, US Futures look to be leaning toward following the rest of the world lower.  The DIA implies a -0.99% open, the SPY is implying a -0.99% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.94% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back down to 1.782% and Oil (WTI) is spiking another 2.5% ($110.33/barrel) in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Feb. Unemployment Rate, and Feb. Participation Rate (all at 8:30 am).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day. 

Markets seem to be taking a beating this morning in the face of Russia’s reckless attack on the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. However, we do have the February Payrolls data yet to come in the premarket. So, there is a chance for a rebound, but I would not hold my breath. It appears Mr. Market is deciding that Friday in the face of current news and with a weekend news cycle in front of us should be a risk-off kind of day. You might do well to consider following his lead and get light, flat, or in cash for the weekend. Also remember it’s payday. So, do not forget to pay yourself. As they say, the best time to take profits is “when you have them”…not “someday if they grow bigger.”

Once again, ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Remember that you don’t have to trade every day (or even week) and you definitely don’t need to chase moves. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Keeping with the recent trend of volatility, today was the bulls’ day.  Markets gapped up and, after some whipsaw the first hour, then rallied all day before backing off the last hour in all 3 major indices.  This left us with large white candles with decent-sized wicks on both ends, which closed back up above the T-line in all 3.  On the day, SPY gained 1.83%, DIA gained 1.75%, and QQQ gained 1.68%. The VXX fell almost 6.5% to 24.96 and T2122 jumped to the edge of overbought territory at 89.43.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 1.903% as markets rushed back into risk assets and Oil (WTI) continues to scream higher, up another 7.8% to $111.52/barrel (a level not seen since 2008).

We may have gotten a “State of the Union address” pop or maybe it was a “Ukraine is not as bad as we thought” rebound at the open Wednesday.  Either way, the market also got boosts from Fed speakers.  James Bullard, a hawk, said the US economy is humming (“more than fully recovered”) and is unlikely to see a large impact from the invasion of Ukraine.  However, he also again called on the Fed to follow through on rate hikes and remove accommodation (rapidly sell off the balance sheet assets) said the Fed may have to get more aggressive if initial hikes do not curb inflation.  Fed Chair Powell also did not throw any curveballs.  He told Congress the labor market is extremely tight and still sees rate hikes coming in spite of the uncertainty that the War in Ukraine has injected into economic forecasts.  Reassuringly, he told Congress the likely path of increases will be in quarter-percent increments (alleviating market fears over the shock of half-percent moves).   

The Russian invasion continues to be the story driving markets.  On the ground, the Russian bombardment of the major cities has intensified and the Russian fleet is now approaching the major port city of Odessa.  The Pentagon says the Russian offensive is moving faster in the South of Ukraine compared to the North or East.  On the sanction front, the US and EU agreed to expand the list of Russian oligarchs being targeted by sanctions.  In addition, for the first time, EU Parliament discussion has now begun on whether sanctions need to be placed on Russian Oil and Gas imports, which has been totally off-limits up to this point.  However, energy makes up 60% of all Russian exports.  So, if you want to cause pain, that is what needs to be hit.  In other related news, two of the Bank of England policymakers told reporters that the war in Ukraine will upend the economic outlook in the UK and should therefore impact policy moving forward. 

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After the close, GEF, SPLK, PSTG, VEEV, VSCO, and NTNX all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, JXN beat on earnings but missed on revenue.  On the other side, EC missed on earnings but beat on revenue.  However, CPNG and AEO missed on both earnings and revenue.

So far this morning, TD, SAFM, GMS, KRA, SRLP, and THNPY have reported beats on both lines.  CRH and BJ both beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  On the other side, WB and UTZ beat on earnings but missed on revenue.  However, BBY, BURL, and BIG all missed on both lines.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mostly green.  Shenzhen (-1.09%) and India (-0.65%) saw the only significant losses.  Meanwhile, South Korea (+1.61%), Malaysia (+1.28%), and Japan (+0.70%) led the rest of the region higher.  In Europe, with the minor exception of Denmark (+0.27%), the entire continent is in the red at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.72%), DAX (-0.86%), and CAC (-0.08%) are typical of the spread across the region in early afternoon trading.  (The Russian exchange remains closed.)  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward an open just on the red side of flat.  The DIA is implying a -0.09% open, the SPY implies a -0.18% open and the QQQ implies a -0.30% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are trading lower to 1.854% and Oil (WTI) is up another 2% in early trading. However, a lot of economic news is still to come.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, and Q4 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am), Feb. Services PMI (9:45 am), Feb. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI and Jan. Factory Orders (both at 10 am).  There are also 2 Fed speakers (Chair Powell testifies at 10 am, and Williams speaks at 6 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BBY, BIG, BILI, BJ, BURL, CNQ, CPG, GMS, KR, REV, SRLP, TD, TTC, and WB.  Then after the close, AQN, AVGO, COST, GPS, MRVL, and VZIO report.

Markets seem to be waiting on economic data in the premarket. The worst of the fear from the invasion of Ukraine has subsided, the Fed speakers (especially Powell) have given us word that the rate increase pace will be slow and steady, and earnings are mostly behind us. Perhaps volatility will start to subside. However, do not just assume it has not gone away. Be prepared for whipsaw action when some news story drops (for example, what would be the impact if the EU did sanction Russian Oil and Gas?). Again we need to remain nimble (small), move cautiously, and keep a hedge (or exit plan) in place. So, don’t get giddy and start chasing.

Once again, ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Remember that you don’t have to trade every day (or even week) and you definitely don’t need to chase moves. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ITUB, FFIV, TDOC, PINS, CHGG, CAR, PENN, PAAS, ZIM, PFE, SPCE, CVS, AAPL, CSCO, F, KHC, MSFT, PLUG, MARA, AG, FB. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw the bears in control all day.  After a modest gap-down open, stocks sold off all morning and then whipsawed along the bottom all afternoon.  The day ended near the lows.  This left us with large black candles in all 3 major indices and all 3 closing on an upswing, but well back below their T-lines and apparently working on a “Dreaded h” pattern.  On the day SPY lost 1.53%, DIA lost 1.80%, and QQQ lost 1.52%.  The VXX gained 11% to 26.67 and T2122 fell back to the mid-range at 50.94.  10-year bond yields fell dramatically (mostly in premarket) to 1.731% and Oil (WTI) shot over 9% higher to $104.49/barrel.

The Russian invasion continues to drive markets with Financials down hard Tuesday (XLF was down 3.66%) over fear about what sanctions might do to US credit markets. (Fear of US Bank exposure to loans made to Russian entities or companies that depend on Russian markets or components.)  Russia also instituted “capital controls” that prevent foreign companies from selling Russian assets in an effort to stop companies like BP and RDSA from exiting their energy sector projects.  The measures also prevent hard currencies (essentially anything except Rubles) from being sent abroad.  After the close, F reported that it is suspending all operations in Russia and AAPL has halted all product sales to that country.  Overnight, the EU extended sanctions to Belarus, which sent troops to help the Russians on Tuesday.    

Perhaps the biggest news out of the Russian invasion is the fact that Putin has managed to unite Europe (including Switzerland) and the US.  He even managed to bring the Democrats and Republicans in Congress together as both sides repeatedly applauded President Biden in a very rare show of bipartisan support for sanctioning Russia and supporting Ukraine.     

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

This morning F announced it will split its Electric Vehicle (EV) and Internal Combustion Ending (ICE) businesses into separate divisions.  This will free up the divisions to focus instead of trying to build both ICE and EV vehicles.  The company said is has no plans to spinoff either division.  However, in the past all the major automakers have said they expect to have all new vehicles be EV sometime in the next 10-15 years.

In a story that broke over the weekend, but only noticed by financial press Tuesday, NVDA reported that discovered it had been hacked on Feb. 23.  The hack allowed the bad guys to steal over one terabyte of NVDA intellectual property.  Contrary to initial fears of it being tied to Russian cyber-attacks, it appears the hack came from a South American extortion group, which demanded ransom.  Interestingly, NVDA has in turn hacked the group (named LAPSU$) and encrypted the hacked data.  However, LAPSU$ claims it has backups of the data and will release it unless NVDA pays the ransom. Some of the data has been released online by LAPSU$ as a show they still have the information.

After the close, AMC, CRM, ROST, JWN, JAZZ, CNR, MCFE, and KRA all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, HPE beat on earnings while missing on revenue.  On the other side, NFE and URBN beat on revenue but missed on earnings.

Overnight, the Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side.  Hong Kong (-1.84%), Japan (-1.68%), and Shenzhen (-1.05%) led the region lower.  In Europe, markets are mixed but lean to the upside at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.96%), DAX (+0.70%), and CAC (+0.76%) lead the region higher as Athens (-2.10%) and Denmark (-1.39%) lead the smaller exchanges swimming against that rising tide.  Russian markets remain closed.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green open.  The DIA implies a +0.80% open, the SPY is implying a +0.78% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.82% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up a bit to 1.758% and Oil (WTI) is spiking another 6% to $109.54/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes an OPEC meeting (5 am), Feb. ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (8:15 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and the Fed Beige Book (2 pm).  There are also multiple Fed speakers (Hawkish Member Bullard at 9:30 am and Fed Chair Powell testifies at 10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ANF, AMRX, BHG, CLTR, DCI, DY, and PDCO.  Then after the close, AEO, SQM, GEF, JXN, PSTG, SPLK, and VSCO report.

Volatility has not gone away, but it looks like the bulls will have the momentum at the open. This may prevent the bears from following through on yesterday’s bearish move. Again we need to resist the temptation to think “the bottom is in” regardless of what happens in the market today. Russia surrounded two more major cities overnight and the downside news from sanction impacts on the West has yet to really make news. In short, the bears (both Russian and market) still have plenty of ammo they have not yet put into action. So continue to be careful, nimble, hedged, and aware.

Ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Remember that you don’t have to trade every day (or even week) and you definitely don’t need to chase moves. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SPCE, PLUG, XOM, PINS, QS, TECK, PENN, TWTR, ADM, BITO, INTC. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday was another day of incredible volatility with a 1% – 1.5% gap-down open, a late morning rally that filled the gap, an afternoon selloff that took us to the lows of the day, and then a late-day rally to take us out not far off the highs.  This left us with gap-down large-body white candles with wicks on both ends and the SPY and QQQ able to climb back above their T-lines.  On the day, SPY lost 0.25%, DIA lost 0.40%, and QQQ gained 0.38%.  The VXX rose to 24.00 and T2122 was relatively flat, still inside the edge of the overbought territory at 83.17.  10-year bond yields dropped dramatically to 1.83% and Oil (WTI) spiked almost 4.6% to $95.78/barrel.

Of course, the big story was and continues to be the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions placed on Russia in return.  On the ground, a 40-mile-long Russian armored column has reached the outskirts of Kyiv and bombing continues in the second largest city Kharkiv.  However, Ukrainian resistance remains stiff.  After the close Monday, CA announced they will be banning the import of Russian Oil (symbolic since CA only imports about $560 million per year).  In the US, the national average gas price has reached $4/gallon for the first time since 2008.  Two weeks ahead of the Fed meeting, talk has begun about whether and how the FOMC will adjust its timeline in the face of an uncertain impact of this war on the US (and) global economy.  Fed member Waller said normally a half percent hike would be in order, but in the wake of Ukraine, a more modest approach may be required.   

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

After the close, HPQ, WDAY, ZM, ENDP, ACHC, and PDCE all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, SBAC, DAR, VRM, HY, and OKE all missed one earnings but beat on revenue.  On the other side, SGRY and PRIM beat on earnings but missed on revenue.  It is worth noting that HPQ said they expect Russian sanctions to cut their profits by 3 cents per share for the current quarter. Elsewhere, ZM issued revenue guidance for the year that disappointed by coming in below analyst estimates.

So far this morning, APG, BNS, BMO, BAYRY, BIDU, AZO, HRL, OPYGY, and BLDR have all reported beats on both lines.  SE, IQ, and GOLF all missed on earnings but beat on revenue.  Meanwhile, KTB beat on revenue but missed on earnings.

Overnight, the Asian markets were almost green across the board, with only Malaysia (-0.74%) printing any red.  However, Taiwan (+1.39%), Japan (+1.20%), and Singapore (+1.12%) led a broad-based rally.  In Europe, we see the mirror image at mid-day.  Only Norway (+1.58%) shows any green with the FTSE (-1.25%), DAX (-2.70%), and CAC (-2.90%) leading the continent lower in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward another red open.  The DIA implies a -0.74% open, the SPY is implying a -0.81% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.87% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are dropping sharply (-1.738%) and Oil (WTI) is up another 4.41% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes Feb. Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), ISM Feb. Mfg. PMI (10 am), and President Biden’s State of the Union Address (8pm-ish).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ADT, AZO, BIDU, BMO, BNS, BLDR, CHS, CLVT, DPZ, HGV, HZNP, HRL, IGT, IQ, SJM, KSS, KTB, PRGO, REGI, SE, TGT, TMX, and UWMC.  Then after the close, ADV, AMC, BGS, CNR, FSLR, GO, HPE, JAZZ, JWN, ROST, CRM, SGMS, SWX, TTEC, URBN, and VGR report.

With no major new developments on the Russian invasion or sanctions fronts overnight, this might be a day for markets to reconsider. However, uncertainty reigns, and volatility will most likely continue to be the order of the day. So, continue to be cautious and continue to only take trades if you are willing to suffer the pain of reversals and volatility. With that said, if this is like similar past events, expect the fear to wear off over time as the impacts have had a chance to settle in. Try to ride out the shocks and take a little longer-term view. The situation does not fundamentally change global economics, but it produces uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: Rick is out sick today, so no trade ideas. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday brought us a modest gap higher in all 3 major indices.  This let into initial selling the first 30 minutes and then a significant rally that lasted the rest of the morning.  The afternoon gave us a sideways chop that ended on an upswing the last half hour and saw all 3 major indices closing very near the highs of the day.  As a result, we printed shite candles and broke through the T-line in all 3.  However, the downtrend from the last couple of weeks has not yet been broken.  On the day, SPY gained 2.21%, DIA gained 2.47%, and QQQ gained 1.55%.  VXX fell 4% to 22.95 and T2122 spiked up into the overbought territory at 85.08.  10-year bond yields were up slightly to 1.97% and Oil (WTI) fell nine-tenths of a percent to $92.00/barrel.

The main story continues to be the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Western sanctions that have resulted.  Over the weekend, some Russian banks were kicked out of the SWIFT payment system.  (Some credit cards just won’t work in Russia now as well as hitting foreign trade.) This is a way to target all non-energy and non-ag exports by Russia (which while significant are still minor relative to their Energy and Ag exports).  The EU also closed its airspace to Russian planes. Much more importantly, the EU banned all transactions with the Russian Central Bank, which will prevent Russia from accessing a little over half of their country’s bank reserves.  This forced the Russian Central Bank to raise rates 20% (to discourage borrowing from their depleted reserves).  On Monday emerging market currencies were slumping and the Ruble is down 30%.  As a safe haven, the dollar is climbing versus all currencies. In non-economic fallout, on Sunday, BP announced it will be selling (presumably at a loss) its nearly 20% state in the Russian state-owned energy company Rosneft. 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In other news, during the day Friday, the SEC proposed new Short Selling rules.  The rules focus on larger traders, defined as those with at least $10 million or 2.5% of the float short for any stock.  The regulation would require the shorts to submit monthly data to the SEC and also require brokerages or funds that lend shares for shorting to submit data on the transaction within 15 minutes of loaning the stock.  However, these proposals are still far from certain as the agency has extended the public comment period on these proposed regulations and we know large funds and brokerages oppose them.

This week also includes a broad range of economic data.   Monday and Tuesday see Mfg. PMI data.  Meanwhile, Wednesday brings both an OPEC meeting and US Oil Inventories (which may be important depending on the Russian invasion impacts on oil markets) as well as Fed Chair Powell beginning 2 days of Congressional testimony.  Then Thursday gives us Jobless Claims, Q4 Productivity, and Services PMI.  Finally, on Friday we get February Payrolls, Unemployment, and Participation data.  In addition to all of this, there will be several Fed speakers during the week.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mostly green.  Singapore (-1.59%) was an extreme outlier and one of only two exchanges in the red, but Shanghai (+0.32%), Japan (+0.19%), and South Korea (+0.84%) are representative of the region.  In Europe, markets remain in the red, with a few smaller exchange outliers.  For some reason, Denmark (+2.25%) is an extreme outlier to the green side.  The FTSE (-1.24%), DAX (-2.35%), and CAC (-2.95%) are typical of the region as Europe anticipates the pain of sanctions on their own economies.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward another significant gap down.  The DIA implies a -0.84% open, the SPY is implying a -0.87% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.81% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have dropped sharply to 1.918% as money flees to bonds and Oil (WTI) shot up about 5% to 96.12 in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday includes Jan. Goods Trade Balance and Jan. Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am) and Chicago PMI (9:45 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BRK.B, CANO, DQ, XRAY, FMX, GLP, ITRI, JLL, KOS, NLSN, PRTY, TGNA, VEON, and VTRS.  Then after the close, ACHC, CAPL, DAR, ENDP, HPQ, OKE, PDCE, PRIM, SBAC, SGRY, VRM, WDAY, and ZM report.

Once again today we face another wave of shock from the Russian invasion (and sanctions) and yet again this is a situation where the market will likely over-react and then whipsaw. If you were not hedged or in cash going into the weekend, it is very likely too late to avoid some pain. However, you can avoid the panic and mistake of selling into the initial over-reaction this morning. Expect massive volatility today, but try to remain calm. If this is like similar past events, expect the fear to wear off as the impacts have had time to settle in. Try to ride out the initial shock this morning and be very, very, leery of chasing any new trades (either direction) until things settle down. Once again, today would be a good day to turn off the TV and go fishing or sit on your hands if you were not prepared ahead of time.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RUN, SQQQ, ZEN, RWM, SNAP, SPCE, TMUS, TECK. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday saw a dramatic turn-around as a major Russian Invasion gap-down across the board was met by a strong all-day rally that closed near the highs in all 3 major indices as well as the small-caps (IWM).   This led to Bullish Belthold signals and green days in all 4 indices.  (Remember that all candle signals require confirmation.) On the day, SPY gained 1.43%, DIA gained 0.25%, and QQQ gained a massive 3.36%.  This was a tremendous feat after they had gapped down between 2.5% and 3.5%.  VXX lost 3% on the day to 23.94 and T2122 jumped up out of the oversold territory to 25.54.  10-year bond yields recovered from their premarket lows to close down modestly to 1.965% and Oil (QTI) gained 1.35% to $93.25.

The Russian invasion continues today as Russian troops near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.  Meanwhile, the West is claiming they are now instituting “crippling sanctions.”  However, that’s debatable since neither of the so-called “nuclear sanctions” was issued.  (Those being tariffs or embargoes placed on the main Russian exports of Oil, Nat. Gas, and Wheat as well as Russia being kicked out of the SWIFT payment system, which would have made all international trade very hard and very expensive.)  The main sanctions that were put in place are the freezing of Russian bank assets and a prohibition on those banks from raising funds in Western financial markets.  However, it is theoretically possible that Germany, Spain, Italy, and other holdouts may still change their minds on those hammer-blow sanctions as the invasion and occupation wear on.  The bottom line is that, as of now, Markets do not perceive major disruptions or problems for the global economy from the invasion.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In other news, Q4 GDP came in at 7.0% as expected and the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were very slightly better than expected.  However, Jan. New Home Sales came in slightly less than expected and, interestingly, Crude Oil Inventories came in much higher (4.1 million barrels higher) than was expected.

On the earnings front, after the close, OXY, VMW, SQ, ADSK, ETSY, COIN, UHS, TIMB, SFM, and AAN all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, HKXCY, HEI, FTCH, TPC, EIX, and TV all reported beats on earnings but missed on revenue.  On the other side, EOG, DELL, AEM, CVNA, OPEN, and OPK beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  However, INTU and RKT missed on both revenue and earnings lines.

So far this morning, CM, SRE, NTIOF, LAMR, ICAGY, CRI, CNK, MODV, and SAFM have reported beating on both lines.  Meanwhile, LI, SSREY, GTN, and CLMT missed on earnings but beat on revenue.  On the other side, FL and TV missed on revenue but beat on earnings.  However, QRTEA, SSP, and GVA have reported misses on both lines.

Overnight, the Asian markets were almost green across the board.  Hong Kong (-0.59%) was the only red in the region.  Meanwhile, India (+2.53%), Japan (+1.95%), and Shenzhen (+1.21%) led the bounce back.  In Europe, the rebound is stronger with significant gains all across the continent at mid-day.  The FTSE (+2.41%), DAX (+1.63%), and CAC (+1.99%) can even be said to be laggards in the rebound as most of the smaller exchanges have moved more.  Even Russia (+12.21%) has bounced quite a bit as the sanctions were not as harsh as feared.  Of course, Europe still has an afternoon of trading before they can book this rebound.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modestly red open.  The DIA implies a -0.40% open, the SPY is implying a -0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.23% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up to 1.993% and Oil (WTI) has bounced back half of a percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Jan. Durable Goods Orders, Jan. PCE Price Index, and Jan. Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Jan. Pending Home Sales (both at 10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AES, CLMT, CM, CRI, CNK, SSP, EVRG, FL, GTN, IEP, LI, MODV, PNW, QRTEA, SRE, and VST.   There are no reports scheduled for after the close.

The bulls in the US showed incredible resilience in the face of Russia’s invasion yesterday. For example, the QQQ saw a 7% swing from the opening lows to closing highs. That being said, one gap-down rebound candle does not break the bearish trend and certainly does not mean a new trend has started. We also need to recognize that the volatility is extremely high. (For example, the ATR5 of QQQ is $13.) So, if you’re going to trade in this environment, be fast, be hedged, and be prepared to withstand significant volatility. Do not be the guy that assumes he picked the bottom and will feel no pain. Also, keep in mind that this is Friday and there is a weekend news cycle in front of us (which can be forever when there is a hot war on the doorstep of a huge part of the world economy…the EU).

Ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Remember that you don’t have to trade every day. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. When you do trade, trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.) Be careful out there.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: UPST, NKLA, PLUG, GME, HACK, CF, ZEN, MSFT, CHGG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The bears sprang a bull trap on Wednesday as all 3 major indices gapped higher 0.70%-1% at the open.  This came after there was no active fighting between Russia and Ukraine overnight.  However, that was the highs of the day, and markets sold off from that point (with a brief lunchtime rebound) and drove lower all the way into the close.  This left us with big, ugly black candles and gave us the lowest close since June 2021 in all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY lost 1.75%, DIA lost 1.35%, and QQQ lost 2.56%.  The VXX was up 5 and a half percent to 24.64 and T2122 fell even further into the oversold territory to 8.04.  10-year bond yields spiked to 1.986% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $92.02/barrel.

During the day Wednesday, Ukraine called up 36,000 reserves to support their active military and have declared a state of emergency (allowing them to set curfews, restrict travel, and control press). Ukraine also had to deal with a cyber-attack that took many of its government and banking computer systems offline.  Then overnight, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine as had been predicted by the US and NATO allies.  The incursion is on 3 fronts at the moment and Kyiv has been shelled.  So, expect more sanctions and whatever retaliatory measure (cyber and cold war) that may result.  Oil has already spiked above $100/barrel and the safety trade will be the order of the day in markets.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Not that it matters today, but after the close, FNF, EXR, LYV, LNVGF, BBWI, LILA, UCTT, EVH, EBAY, NTAP, BKNG, HTZ, MYRG, AMED, and BMRN all reported beating on both lines.  Meantime, BTG, LHCG, LILAK, RCII, and PTVE all missed on earnings while beating on revenue.  On the other side, MANT missed on revenue but beat on earnings.  However, WES, HLF, FLS, FTI, and SNBR all reported misses on both lines.

Again, not that it matters today, but so far this morning RY, BUD, DDAIF, NTES, MRNA, NEM, ABEV, AEP, CBRE, PWR, ARKAY, and PZZA have reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, BABA, TECK, DISH, NOMD, and SPTN have reported beating on earnings while missing on revenue.  On the other side, AMT, KDP, LYG, DISCA, WPP, NCLH, AHEXY, AHCO, JMIA, and MITT reported earnings misses but beat on revenue.  However, W, UTHR, PAAS, PRMW, and GCI have missed on both lines.

Overnight, the Asian markets were red across the board as is to be expected in time of war impacting global trade in at least Oil, Natural Gas, and Wheat along with any sanctions that may prevent business of any sort with Russia.  India (-4.78%) was the big loser, but the damage was more than 2% everywhere except Malaysia (-0.77%).  Hong Kong (-3.21%), South Korea (-2.60%), and Shenzhen (-2.20%) are pretty representative of the regional reaction.  In Europe, again as would be expected, the reaction has been worse.  The FTSE (-3.01%) is the least impacted, the DAX (-5.01%) and CA (-4.69%) are typical.  Interestingly, the Russian exchange (-34.10%) has suffered a massive hit.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a major gap down at the bell.  The DIA implies a -2.35% open, the SPY is implying a -2.41% open, and the QQQ implies a -2.92% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields dropped dramatically to 1.859% as traders bid up bonds on the safety trade and Oil (WTI) shot up over 8.2% but has “backed off” to $98.93/barrel at the moment (it was well over $100 earlier).

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Q4 GDP and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), Jan. New Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (11 am), and a trio of Fed speakers (Bostic at 11:10 am, Mester at noon, and Waller at 8 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AHCO, BABA, AEP, AMT, BUD, AZUL, BALY, CRC, CBRE, CQP. LNG, CCO, DISCA, DISH, SATS, ELAN, EME, EXPI, FCN, GCI, IBP, IRM, KDP, MRNA, NTES, NOMD, NCLH, NRG, OGE, PZZA, PRMW, PEG, PWR, RY, SJI, SPTN, SRCL, SHOO, TRGP, TECK, VIV, TFX, TEN, TNC, and W.   Then after the close, ADSK, SQ, CVNA, CENX, CHE, COIN, CODI, CVET, CWK, DELL, EIX, EBS, ERIE, ETSY, FTCH, FND, INTU, MTZ, MNST, OXY, ZEUS, OPEN, OVV, PBA, RKT, SEM, SM, SWN, SFM, TPC, UNVR, UHS, VMW, WSC, and INT report.

In the face of the Russian invasion, we can expect wholesale selling and rotation toward safety trades (Bonds, Gold, Utilities, etc.). Expect massive volatility today, but it is likely too late to do much damage control unless you were hedged before the shock. If this is like similar past events, expect the fear to wear off as the sanctions and impacts have had time to settle in. However, that won’t help today, at least not early. Personally, I will be looking to ride out the initial shock in positions where it’s too late to be ahead of the news and I definitely won’t chase any new trades until things settle down. In short, today would be a good day to go fishing or sit on your hands if you were not prepared ahead of time.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today – this is not the time to step in front of fear and massive volatility. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw a modest gap down on the Russian “soft invasion” of Ukraine.  Then, after a half-hour of volatility, markets sold off most of the day.  This left us with gap-down, indecisive Spinning Top or Doji candles in all 3 major indices.  All 3 are also at the breakout point of a bearish “Dreaded h” pattern.  On the day, SPY lost 1.07%, DIA lost 1.46%, and QQQ lost 1.00%.  This put all 3 into correction territory, with the QQQ in a bear market (depending on how you measure). The VXX was flat at 23.36 and T2122 dropped down into the oversold territory at 10.24.  10-year bond yields rose to 1.944% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.32% to $92.27/day.

The US and Europe hit Russia with symbolic, but largely meaningless, sanctions as a result of the soft invasion of Ukraine. These included sanctions on a handful of smaller Russian banks (which don’t get their funding from abroad, so the impact is not heavy). Probably most notable was Germany’s decertifying the “Nord Stream 2” Natural Gas pipeline.  (50% of Nord Stream 2 funding came from Western Europe and Russia responded by threatening that Europe would soon be paying 20% more than the record price for its natural gas.) Still, this sanction has a minimal impact since the pipeline was not yet online and nobody thinks that the pipeline project won’t eventually be given a green light again.  The fear the market is likely to focus on is that Russia recognized the entire DonBas region as being separate from Ukraine, not just the area already controlled by Russian-backed Separatists.  That means they claim to support Separatist “ownership” of well over 3 times as much territory as the Separatists actually now control.  This implies a Russian offensive in support of its friends to at least the borders of the DonBas region.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In other news, both the Mfg. and Services PMIs came in higher than expected.  Even Conf. Board Consumer Confidence slightly beat expectations.  Then, after the close, MOS, AGR, TOL, PANW, FANG, CDNS, PSA, RXT, TXRH, NDSN, O, TDOC, and MTDR all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, MELI, CWH, RRC, and EXAS beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  On the other side, VRSK, missed on revenue but beat on earnings.  However, CZR and RIG missed on both lines. 

So far this morning, LOW, ETR, OMI, ODP, BCO, PSN, TNL, WWW, and NI have all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, BCS, VIPS, and OSTK reported beats on earnings but came in short on revenue.  On the other side, HFC, TAP, DAN, CSTM, VRT, ARKO, and PRG all missed on earnings but beat on revenue.  As of now, there have been no reports that missed on both lines.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed, but mostly green.  Japan (-1.71%) was by far the most bearish with Shenzhen (+1.93%) by far the most bullish.  The rest of the region saw modest gains in the half of a percent range.  In Europe, markets are rebounding with green seen across the board at mid-day.  Of note, Belgium (+1.54%) is a full percent ahead of the rest of the continent.  The FTSE (+0.33%), DAX (+0.61%), and CAC (+0.99%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green open.  The DIA implies a +0.52% open, the SPY is implying a +0.63% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.98% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have risen to 1.969% as traders step back from bonds and Oil (WTI) is down half of a percent in early trading after yesterday’s rise.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Wednesday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BCS, BHC, BCO, CLH, CSTM, DAN, ETR, FYBR, GIL, HFC, IHRT, LOW, TAP, NI, ODP, OSTK, OMI, PSN, PBR, PRG, SBGI, TJX, TNL, VRT, VIPS, and WWW.  Then after the close, AEM, AMED, ANSS, ACA, BBWI, BKNG, CHK, FIX, CTRA, CCRN, CW, DK, EBAY, WTRG, FLS, FNF, FRG, HLF, HTZ, IR, KALU, LHCG, LYV, MANT, VAC, MYRG, NTAP, OPAD, PTVE, PARR, RCII, RYI, SNBR, SUM, FTI, and UCTT report.

The bulls would sure like to do at least a relief rally not that the S&P has entered correction territory. However, Ukraine is in the process of declaring a state of emergency and has told its citizens to leave Russia immediately. The good news is, at least as of now, there is no active fighting between formally Russian troops (as opposed to the Russians posing as Ukrainian Separatists) and Ukrainian forces. So this morning, traders are likely to be over the initial shock and happy there is no active fighting. Look for that little relief rally to ensue. However, keep in mind that the technical damage and overhead resistance are still major hurdles to the bulls getting the market into full rally mode. So, expect volatility, fear news causing market knee-jerks, and trade cautiously.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ABBV, SYY, FTNT, KO, CHKP, CVS, FFIV, CHD, T. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Friday, markets opened more or less flat.  Then, after waffling for the first hour, all 3 major indices sold off to the lows about 1:20 pm.  Then the options expiration buying took all 3 on a rally into 3 pm.  However, the last hour saw another, smaller, down wave.  This left us with black candles with fairly large wicks including Spinning Tops in the two large-caps indices.  On the day, SPY lost 0.65%, DIA lost 0.79%, and QQQ lost 1.14%.  Meanwhile, the VXX gained over 2% to 23.45 and T2122 dropped closer to the oversold territory at 22.49.  10-year bond yields fell back to 1.927% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $91.80/barrel.

On Monday, Russia recognized Ukrainian Separatist Regions as independent nations and ordered his armed forces into those regions under the pretense of protecting them against Ukrainian aggression.  This and the Western reactions to it are likely to be the main market drivers Tuesday.  Among these reactions are the likely halt of Natural Gas imports to Western Europe from Russia and the cancellation of a Biden-Putin meeting this week.  Nonetheless, as of 7 am, US futures have recovered most of the overnight losses (that occurred when the soft invasion started).

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

The market is down 10%-20% from the all-time highs.  However, many have recently asked, ”given heavy inflation, huge government debt, unprecedented supply chain snarls, etc., why hasn’t the market fallen off a cliff.”   The short answer is that the market is not the economy.  A more nuanced answer is that most companies simply have more pricing power and consumers are more resilient to inflation than expected.  So, companies are able to charge prices even higher than their cost increases and this has/is resulting in strong profits.  In other words, we hear a lot of tales of woe about inflation, but we do not hear a lot of stories about companies shutting down operations because they are unable to pass on increased costs.  

Another factor is that many of the biggest corporations are putting a floor in markets in a sense.  For example, Bloomberg reported Saturday that the 10 largest stock buyback programs this year are 30% larger than they were a year ago.  So, companies like AAPL, FB, GOOG, MSFT, CSCO, PG, CHTR, V, SBUX, and WMT are spending tens of billions of dollars to essentially prevent their stock prices from falling.  In addition to those big boys, a large number of “smaller” companies had suspended their buybacks during 2020 and the first half of 2021, but they are also now using that saved money to protect their share prices again.  As a result, well over $265 billion (a record, which broke the record set just the previous quarter) was spent on buyback programs in Q4-21.  And those numbers are expected to rise again in Q1-22.  The estimate is that 2021 saw a record near $900 billion in stock buybacks in the S&P500 members and more expected this year.  So, simply put, it’s hard for prices to fall too far with massive buy orders sitting out there to absorb sell orders.

Overnight, the Asian markets were down across the board, but in varying degrees on the Russian soft invasion.  Hong Kong (-2.69%), Japan (-1.71%), Taiwan (-1.38%), and South Korea (-1.35%) paced the losses.  Thailand (-0.19%), New Zealand (-0.34%), and Malaysia (-0.36%) were the closest thing to gainers in the region.  Quite interestingly, European markets are mixed on fairly modest moves at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.25%), DAX (-0.25%), and CAC (-0.02%) lead the region, but there are 5 green exchanges, and only Russia (-4.52%) is down hard on the Monday news.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a down open (but significantly recovered from overnight lows).  The DIA implies a -0.19% open, the SPY is implying a -0.03% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.38% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are up to 1.942% and Oil (WTI) is the big winner on the geopolitical news, up 3.69% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am), and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include CNP, CFX, CBRL, CVI, EXPD, FLR, HD, HSBC, JELD, KBR, LPX, M, MDT, MIDD, NHYDY, TPX, BLD, TRU, VNTR, and WLK.  Then after the close, A, ARGO, AGR, BTG, BWXT, CDNS, CZR, CWH, CSGP, FANG, ESI, JBT, MELI, MOS, NDSN, PANW, PSA, RXT, RRC, O, TDOC, TXRH, TOL, RIG, TA, and VRSK report.

So far this morning, HD, M, FLR, CNP, WLK, NXST, LPX, CFX, BLD, and CEQP have all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, MDT and KBR reported beats on earnings while missing on revenue.  On the other side, JELD and TRU missed on earnings, but beat on revenue.  However, HSBC, TPX, and VNTR all missed on both lines.

News of talks between the US Sec. of State and Russian Foreign Minister Russian, tentatively scheduled for next week have given European and US stocks a little help this morning. However, we have to remember there will be a long 3-day news cycle before US markets open again. So, while some may run with the potentially good news, be very careful joining that crowd. The truth is we don’t know what will happen or when. And frankly, with 150k Russian troops plus tens of thousands of “Ukrainian Separatist Militia” on the Ukrainian border or inside Eastern Ukraine, it would not take much for a mistake to turn into war. (Fighting is already in progress between Ukraine and Separatists.) So, the prudent course is to go into the weekend flat or hedged. Just keep fighting the urge to put on rose-colored glasses and trade like you’re making up time.

Stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.) Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: Rick is back, but no trade ideas today til the turmoil settles a bit. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service